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冰冰大美女

冰冰大美女

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冰冰大美女

2021-07-28

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@谋定后动:【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】期权是一个什么梗？（7月篇）

冰冰大美女

2021-06-09

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$快点拉，我挂单睡了

冰冰大美女

2021-06-09

$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$终于不像个韭菜了

冰冰大美女

2021-03-25

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中概股掀起腥风血雨，今年会是2018年的翻版吗？

冰冰大美女

2021-03-24

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冰冰大美女

2021-03-24

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2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期

冰冰大美女

2021-03-17

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冰冰大美女

2021-03-17

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$周五期权到期是不是就成了一张废纸

冰冰大美女

2021-03-17

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冰冰大美女

2021-03-17

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6 Things to Watch for When Sundial Growers Releases Earnings This Week

冰冰大美女

2021-03-16

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冰冰大美女

2021-03-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$之前在高点套了，割肉出掉，上周又接回来，不要让我失望，拜托拜托。[可怜]

冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

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@谋定后动:【暴跌启示录】裸卖看跌期权策略的危机应对特别篇

冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

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@小虎活动:【暴跌启示录】从8倍的收益率到本金亏损80%，他经历了什么？

冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

？电音之王？货币大师？？？

特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO将公司职位头衔“改名”

冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

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冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

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@小虎周报:港股周策略：百度、B站来了！二次上市都有哪些投资策略？

冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

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@小安先生:如果您想第一时间获取我的分析研究欢迎大家同步订阅我的YT频道https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc_Hk31TyDFyF1sNviwd00A?sub_confirmation=1交易日北京时间中午12：30分更新港股实时市场观察交易日美东时间早11：00（冬令时）北京时间晚12点盘中直播美股实时观察。Email：answerbaby913@gmail.com$美团-W(03690)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $小米集团-W(01810)$ $小恒指主连(MHImain)$ $中国国航(00753)$

冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

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@JayceLee:寻找未被发掘的冷门股

冰冰大美女

2021-03-15

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Ratio）= （平均收益 - 无风险利率）/ 标准差七月份完成的期权交易一共21笔，记录如下截至7月28日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至7月28日我的@<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;期权持仓给我投个票吧老虎社区正在评选2021最受欢迎社区创作者，我有幸成为候选人之一，还没有投票的虎友给我“谋定后动”投个票吧，底下数上去第5个。你的支持是我持续输出内容的最大动力。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/147338736\" target=\"_blank\">老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为你的爱豆打call</a>期权是个什么梗期权在美股股市里是一个天使和魔鬼的合体存在。这是一个投资认知变现最","listText":"如果说买卖股票是投资的话，那么期权交易才是真正的赚钱。想通过高抛低吸股票赚钱对于散户来说其实难度很大的，美股的特点是牛长熊短，你来回倒腾往往比不上一直长期持守的收益高。而想要在短期内赚钱的话，期权是一个你不得不搞明白的梗。就我自己而言，我总收益的70%左右就是来自于期权交易的。我的这个期权策略文章自从2020年12月开始以来，一直有很多虎友留言说希望学习更多期权的基本知识，这篇文章我就以我的理解用最直白的语言来帮你解开期权这个梗。按照国际惯例，我们先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：七月份迎来小爆发，盈利4万9千刀！全年平均每月落袋盈利1万9千刀，夏普比率1.36，杠杆率2.12夏普比率简单地说就是衡量一个投资收益率和风险的比值，比值越大，说明该投资在承受同样的风险情况下，有更高的收益。具体的公式是风险收益比（Sharp Ratio）= （平均收益 - 无风险利率）/ 标准差七月份完成的期权交易一共21笔，记录如下截至7月28日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至7月28日我的@<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;期权持仓给我投个票吧老虎社区正在评选2021最受欢迎社区创作者，我有幸成为候选人之一，还没有投票的虎友给我“谋定后动”投个票吧，底下数上去第5个。你的支持是我持续输出内容的最大动力。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/147338736\" target=\"_blank\">老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为你的爱豆打call</a>期权是个什么梗期权在美股股市里是一个天使和魔鬼的合体存在。这是一个投资认知变现最","text":"如果说买卖股票是投资的话，那么期权交易才是真正的赚钱。想通过高抛低吸股票赚钱对于散户来说其实难度很大的，美股的特点是牛长熊短，你来回倒腾往往比不上一直长期持守的收益高。而想要在短期内赚钱的话，期权是一个你不得不搞明白的梗。就我自己而言，我总收益的70%左右就是来自于期权交易的。我的这个期权策略文章自从2020年12月开始以来，一直有很多虎友留言说希望学习更多期权的基本知识，这篇文章我就以我的理解用最直白的语言来帮你解开期权这个梗。按照国际惯例，我们先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：七月份迎来小爆发，盈利4万9千刀！全年平均每月落袋盈利1万9千刀，夏普比率1.36，杠杆率2.12夏普比率简单地说就是衡量一个投资收益率和风险的比值，比值越大，说明该投资在承受同样的风险情况下，有更高的收益。具体的公式是风险收益比（Sharp Ratio）= （平均收益 - 无风险利率）/ 标准差七月份完成的期权交易一共21笔，记录如下截至7月28日我的$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 持仓截至7月28日我的@$英伟达(NVDA)$ 期权持仓给我投个票吧老虎社区正在评选2021最受欢迎社区创作者，我有幸成为候选人之一，还没有投票的虎友给我“谋定后动”投个票吧，底下数上去第5个。你的支持是我持续输出内容的最大动力。老虎社区最受欢迎虎友评选开始啦，快来为你的爱豆打call期权是个什么梗期权在美股股市里是一个天使和魔鬼的合体存在。这是一个投资认知变现最","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a78220f37510e2b8aa652a35108bcd","width":"1123","height":"843"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803826010","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":19,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189800884,"gmtCreate":1623249794648,"gmtModify":1623249794648,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>快点拉，我挂单睡了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>快点拉，我挂单睡了","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$快点拉，我挂单睡了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77065457fb0829147b193cd2b9633afb","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189800884","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180306869,"gmtCreate":1623176459651,"gmtModify":1623176459651,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHT\">$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$</a>终于不像个韭菜了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHT\">$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$</a>终于不像个韭菜了","text":"$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$终于不像个韭菜了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47575dface87460ba8ae57003608c9","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180306869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3462835651625771","authorId":"3462835651625771","name":"石家庄二炮手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eabd15fbc0d913fbb0dc109429347b55","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"呵呵，拿住了，有希望","text":"呵呵，拿住了，有希望","html":"呵呵，拿住了，有希望"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358912889,"gmtCreate":1616649770341,"gmtModify":1616649770341,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358912889","repostId":"1190595276","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190595276","pubTimestamp":1616642731,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190595276?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中概股掀起腥风血雨，今年会是2018年的翻版吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190595276","media":"格隆汇","summary":"摘要：山雨欲来？\n\n懂王已隐退许久，但江湖仍因他掀起了一片腥风血雨。\n昨夜，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）发布最新通告称，已通过临时修正，以执行《外国公司责任法案》对上市公司信息披露的要求。\n\n2020","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：山雨欲来？\n</blockquote>\n<p>懂王已隐退许久，但江湖仍因他掀起了一片腥风血雨。</p>\n<p>昨夜，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）发布最新通告称，已通过临时修正，以执行《外国公司责任法案》对上市公司信息披露的要求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbfb5123c1497d7570dd3fc6ff9e1cab\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2020年12月，时任美国总统特朗普正式签署了《外国公司问责法案》。该法案主要包含两项内容：</p>\n<p>1、如果外国公司连续三年未能通过美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）的审计，将被禁止在美国任何交易所上市；</p>\n<p>2、上市公司需披露自己与该国政府的关系。</p>\n<p>充满了火药味的中美会谈刚刚不欢而散，法案就立马落地，很难让人相信二者之间没有什么关系。</p>\n<p>市场分析普遍认为，美国SEC正式通告，意味着在美上市的中概股将面临更大的退市压力。</p>\n<p>受此影响，昨夜中概股集体暴跌，带动纳指的跌幅超过2%。截至美股收市，腾讯音乐跌27%，唯品会跌21%，爱奇艺跌近20%；新能车小鹏汽车跌超15%，理想汽车跌超13%，蔚来汽车跌超10%；百度、拼多多、哔哩哔哩均跌9%左右。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7990411053bdd2c68ced8d126b1faf69\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除了中石油、中石化因为国际油价的大涨逃过一劫，头部中概股几乎无一幸免。</p>\n<p>回到中国，已经回港上市的个股均被拖累，恒生科技指数开盘一度大跌超4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/937f24a8781c59f9fd396711afef4fbc\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>截止目前，恒科指跌近2%，京东、阿里巴巴均跌4超%，小米、网易、美团等集体跟跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa909914372b96d63df380bdb7e7357f\" tg-width=\"662\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>中概股以科技公司为主，而这种现象的背后有着深刻的历史原因。</p>\n<p><b>1、回港市场潮或加剧，流动性隐忧</b></p>\n<p>千禧年前后，中国的股票市场还处在起步阶段，上市的门槛较为严格。在审核制、核准制的制度下，发行股票融资的时间成本比较大，最重要的是我国发行股票上市融资的标准比较高，需要公司资产达到一定规模，连续三年盈利且净资产收益率要达到10%。</p>\n<p>创新型的具有高风险的互联网公司很难达到标准，但彼时国内互联网行业正值发展初期，需要大量烧钱。</p>\n<p>加上彼时国内资金缺乏，银行的理念并不开放，贷款的发放较为严格，因为看不懂科技公司的盈利模式，导致互联网型企业很难通过大渠道融资。</p>\n<p>所以，当时这类新兴企业主要的资金来源是天使投资+风险投资+私募基金，而当年这些投资机构大多来自境外。最为人所知的例子就是阿里巴巴了，马云就是从日本风投公司软银那里成功融到资的。</p>\n<p>但是，我国法律对境外资金投资电信相关企业（含互联网在内）有非常严格的限制，合资企业基本上不可能获批，为了解决这个问题，合资企业纷纷采取VIE架构，绕过这一层政策监管。</p>\n<p>但VIE架构也被和智能将会认定为规避法律政策，其合法性有问题。</p>\n<p>所以就成了一个无解的局面：缺钱——引入外资——变成合资企业——采取VIE架构——没法在A股上市。</p>\n<p>而美国、香港都是注册制，上市门槛很低，甚至不盈利的公司，只要满足一定的规模，完成流程和合规方面的要求，都能上市，融资效率高。</p>\n<p>因此，才形成了互联网公司纷纷赴海外上市的现象。</p>\n<p>近几年，出于各种考虑，中概股回港二次上市的公司越来越多。预计美国法案落地之后，在“退市焦虑”之下，这股风潮将会加剧。</p>\n<p>根据Wind数据统计，目前在美上市的中概股以科技、消费及医疗为主，共计272家。根据港交所的最新原则，在美中概股回归上市需符合以下两点要求中的其中一点：其一为市值大于400亿港元，其二为市值大于100亿港元且当期收入超过10亿港元。根据银河证券今年3月2日发布的研报，目前有48家符合在香港二次上市要求的中概股公司。</p>\n<p>优质资产的回归，无论是顶层设计者还是投资者自然是张开双手欢迎的，只是需要担心的问题是，互联网巨头集体回港，对资金的需求将是一个很大的问题。</p>\n<p>去年6月网易赴港二次上市，首日涨6%，成交额72亿港元，当天恒指跌了2%。</p>\n<p>港股本身就存在流动性不足的情况，“抽血机”一个接一个发动，市场估计不会小。</p>\n<p><b>2、今年会是2018年的翻版吗？</b></p>\n<p>《外国公司问责法案》的落地，对中概股造成直接的打击，但更大的问题是在这背后，我们看到周围的环境愈发让人感到不安了。</p>\n<p>前段时间，国家开始收流动性的时候，很多人都在猜测今年会不会是2018年的翻版。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/867e30311670e615ad48558e6158ee1a\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是现在看来，周围环境的恶劣程度和当年相比或许犹有过之。</p>\n<p>这段时间的国际上的大戏一出接着一出。充满火药味连午饭都不吃了的中美交谈会，欧盟和中国的制裁与反制裁，昨天欧洲议会决定取消《中欧全面投资协定》，再加上突如其来的HM公司的声明……总给人一种山雨欲来的感觉。</p>\n<p>稳定的宏观环境对市场的重要性不言而喻，如果周围环境动荡加剧，A股很难不受影响。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概股掀起腥风血雨，今年会是2018年的翻版吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概股掀起腥风血雨，今年会是2018年的翻版吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-25 11:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/453979><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：山雨欲来？\n\n懂王已隐退许久，但江湖仍因他掀起了一片腥风血雨。\n昨夜，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）发布最新通告称，已通过临时修正，以执行《外国公司责任法案》对上市公司信息披露的要求。\n\n2020年12月，时任美国总统特朗普正式签署了《外国公司问责法案》。该法案主要包含两项内容：\n1、如果外国公司连续三年未能通过美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）的审计，将被禁止在美国任何交易所上市；\n2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/453979\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31992235e2d733c9c23402f8622ffd51","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/453979","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1190595276","content_text":"摘要：山雨欲来？\n\n懂王已隐退许久，但江湖仍因他掀起了一片腥风血雨。\n昨夜，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）发布最新通告称，已通过临时修正，以执行《外国公司责任法案》对上市公司信息披露的要求。\n\n2020年12月，时任美国总统特朗普正式签署了《外国公司问责法案》。该法案主要包含两项内容：\n1、如果外国公司连续三年未能通过美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）的审计，将被禁止在美国任何交易所上市；\n2、上市公司需披露自己与该国政府的关系。\n充满了火药味的中美会谈刚刚不欢而散，法案就立马落地，很难让人相信二者之间没有什么关系。\n市场分析普遍认为，美国SEC正式通告，意味着在美上市的中概股将面临更大的退市压力。\n受此影响，昨夜中概股集体暴跌，带动纳指的跌幅超过2%。截至美股收市，腾讯音乐跌27%，唯品会跌21%，爱奇艺跌近20%；新能车小鹏汽车跌超15%，理想汽车跌超13%，蔚来汽车跌超10%；百度、拼多多、哔哩哔哩均跌9%左右。\n\n除了中石油、中石化因为国际油价的大涨逃过一劫，头部中概股几乎无一幸免。\n回到中国，已经回港上市的个股均被拖累，恒生科技指数开盘一度大跌超4%。\n\n截止目前，恒科指跌近2%，京东、阿里巴巴均跌4超%，小米、网易、美团等集体跟跌。\n\n中概股以科技公司为主，而这种现象的背后有着深刻的历史原因。\n1、回港市场潮或加剧，流动性隐忧\n千禧年前后，中国的股票市场还处在起步阶段，上市的门槛较为严格。在审核制、核准制的制度下，发行股票融资的时间成本比较大，最重要的是我国发行股票上市融资的标准比较高，需要公司资产达到一定规模，连续三年盈利且净资产收益率要达到10%。\n创新型的具有高风险的互联网公司很难达到标准，但彼时国内互联网行业正值发展初期，需要大量烧钱。\n加上彼时国内资金缺乏，银行的理念并不开放，贷款的发放较为严格，因为看不懂科技公司的盈利模式，导致互联网型企业很难通过大渠道融资。\n所以，当时这类新兴企业主要的资金来源是天使投资+风险投资+私募基金，而当年这些投资机构大多来自境外。最为人所知的例子就是阿里巴巴了，马云就是从日本风投公司软银那里成功融到资的。\n但是，我国法律对境外资金投资电信相关企业（含互联网在内）有非常严格的限制，合资企业基本上不可能获批，为了解决这个问题，合资企业纷纷采取VIE架构，绕过这一层政策监管。\n但VIE架构也被和智能将会认定为规避法律政策，其合法性有问题。\n所以就成了一个无解的局面：缺钱——引入外资——变成合资企业——采取VIE架构——没法在A股上市。\n而美国、香港都是注册制，上市门槛很低，甚至不盈利的公司，只要满足一定的规模，完成流程和合规方面的要求，都能上市，融资效率高。\n因此，才形成了互联网公司纷纷赴海外上市的现象。\n近几年，出于各种考虑，中概股回港二次上市的公司越来越多。预计美国法案落地之后，在“退市焦虑”之下，这股风潮将会加剧。\n根据Wind数据统计，目前在美上市的中概股以科技、消费及医疗为主，共计272家。根据港交所的最新原则，在美中概股回归上市需符合以下两点要求中的其中一点：其一为市值大于400亿港元，其二为市值大于100亿港元且当期收入超过10亿港元。根据银河证券今年3月2日发布的研报，目前有48家符合在香港二次上市要求的中概股公司。\n优质资产的回归，无论是顶层设计者还是投资者自然是张开双手欢迎的，只是需要担心的问题是，互联网巨头集体回港，对资金的需求将是一个很大的问题。\n去年6月网易赴港二次上市，首日涨6%，成交额72亿港元，当天恒指跌了2%。\n港股本身就存在流动性不足的情况，“抽血机”一个接一个发动，市场估计不会小。\n2、今年会是2018年的翻版吗？\n《外国公司问责法案》的落地，对中概股造成直接的打击，但更大的问题是在这背后，我们看到周围的环境愈发让人感到不安了。\n前段时间，国家开始收流动性的时候，很多人都在猜测今年会不会是2018年的翻版。\n\n但是现在看来，周围环境的恶劣程度和当年相比或许犹有过之。\n这段时间的国际上的大戏一出接着一出。充满火药味连午饭都不吃了的中美交谈会，欧盟和中国的制裁与反制裁，昨天欧洲议会决定取消《中欧全面投资协定》，再加上突如其来的HM公司的声明……总给人一种山雨欲来的感觉。\n稳定的宏观环境对市场的重要性不言而喻，如果周围环境动荡加剧，A股很难不受影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351234585,"gmtCreate":1616596662447,"gmtModify":1616596662447,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351234585","repostId":"386748549","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351297669,"gmtCreate":1616596364251,"gmtModify":1616596364251,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351297669","repostId":"1100080179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100080179","pubTimestamp":1616593664,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100080179?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 21:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100080179","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"美国复工对商品，或部分周期股，比如化工实际是利空。","content":"<p>作者：袁玉玮</p><p>去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。</p><p>但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873e66b2fb1140bf4542722170c1b634\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d600bd87df2e4cf7aae3b231feea75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀</b></p><p>美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。</p><p>无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。</p><p><b>我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素</b>，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。</p><p>美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">巴西石油公司</a>的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。</p><p>符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：</p><p>前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；</p><p>而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高</p><p>—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。</p><p>为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。</p><p>我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/579cf18d938f1606e8bbe2e91f397a98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么不看好商品超级周期</b></p><p>商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。</p><p>历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。</p><p>而<b>中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性</b>：</p><ol><li><p>文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强</p></li><li><p>基建</p></li><li><p>政府高效</p></li><li><p>中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费</p></li><li><p>上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景</p></li></ol><p>我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：</p><p>印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，</p><p>欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；</p><p>根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。</p><p>而且，<b>2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafed14735b6f7bca7e02e39e60ef0ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd9e2823d5e4c1c0ac267dcd41fc486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但</p><ul><li><p>石油涨价因为供给侧；</p></li><li><p>铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。</p></li></ul><p>这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451727453c577f905b52af9a4a4b56b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816b17c9ab75a6ef70e02a258d1697d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么不看好化工龙头</b></p><p>去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：</p><p>2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。</p><p>化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026025199f3a4dae623db7c47c45afc8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641302e4981a313c34bf19ac25ebc2ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么港股有风险</b></p><p>年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。</p><p>那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：</p><ul><li><p>反垄断</p></li><li><p>茅指数联动</p></li><li><p>通胀预期和美债利率上涨</p></li><li><p>美元升值</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33d97c677841a52863d8a370d0a9486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。</p><p><b>Gamma Squeeze,&nbsp;散户，SPAC，ARK,&nbsp;网红基金</b></p><p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.&nbsp;That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.&nbsp;Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.&nbsp;—— 摘自MarketWatch</p><p>我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于</p><p>①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；</p><p>②疫情实际 =&nbsp;大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 ——&nbsp;对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；</p><p>③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— Tesla股票有一定的金融资产属性，某种程度上，它和Bitcoin很类似，都是资金抱团的结果。</p><p>④中小盘暴露和低质量暴露：ARK持有大量中小盘股和资产负债表弱的股票。这其实得益于低利率催化了市场参与者的风险偏好，和散户羊群的偏好高度重叠。</p><p>⑤AUM扩张+散户跟踪→反身效应：ARK由于今年的超群业绩，导致资金流入不断加速，形成了正反馈效果 ——&nbsp;后入的资金推动持仓进入正反馈。另外，由于ARK的基金持仓透明公布，吸引了众多散户跟风，又加强了正反馈。</p><p>年初，A股的网红基金其实也具备ARK的特征，实际大部分是类被动risk premia风格因子的被动投资，他们得益于央行放水的大beta，alpha含量并不高。而且散户的追涨网红基金，实际等同于散户在GME期权上long gamma，短期有大量的杠杆效应。他们实际不是价值投资，而是在和时间，和内在价值作对，想从未来攫取暴利，短期套现。</p><p>ARK目前不断抛出大盘股，买入小盘股，作最后一搏。但是我们观测到:</p><ul><li><p>ARK的交易量明显下降，</p></li><li><p>看涨期权市场已经显著萎缩 = 散户资产去gamma，去杠杆，缩水，Biden发完补助，我们并没观测到市场预期的散户大军的进场。</p></li><li><p>本周，美债收益率下降，一线科技股大幅反弹，但gamma squeeze标的却出现暴跌现象（讽刺的是，A股的一线龙头 —— 茅指数在和美国抱团票 —— 垃圾股，二线科技股共振）</p></li></ul><p>昨晚，Yellen和Powell又双双谈到目前存在资产泡沫（US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures）。</p><p>一场金融\"马陵道\"围剿的天时，地利，人和，也许都具备了。我们“慭慭然”，小心观测。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c594d0f35d546b7e772525962725ebdb\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27b96b2dec4cfd8ba23c1c66febb19\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>西方传说上帝会在审判日那天赏善罚恶；</p><p>我们并不预期2021一定是大熊市，</p><p>但2021很可能是宏观层面均值回归的一年</p><p>—— 表现在各个层面：</p><p>时间，</p><p>地域，</p><p>供应链，</p><p>估值，</p><p>风格，</p><p>人性，</p><p>欲念，</p><p>地球引力...</p><p>“潮退了，你才知道谁在裸泳。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c514a790774c86cfa09ba0d39d7de12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>图片：visualcapitalist.com</p>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 21:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg><strong>泷韬全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367fa068a00cbca94908e862748783f0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100080179","content_text":"作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了巴西石油公司的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。为什么不看好商品超级周期商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。而中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性：文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强基建政府高效中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。而且，2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了。另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但石油涨价因为供给侧；铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。为什么不看好化工龙头去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。为什么港股有风险年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：反垄断茅指数联动通胀预期和美债利率上涨美元升值综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。Gamma Squeeze, 散户，SPAC，ARK, 网红基金Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. —— 摘自MarketWatch我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；②疫情实际 = 大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 —— 对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— Tesla股票有一定的金融资产属性，某种程度上，它和Bitcoin很类似，都是资金抱团的结果。④中小盘暴露和低质量暴露：ARK持有大量中小盘股和资产负债表弱的股票。这其实得益于低利率催化了市场参与者的风险偏好，和散户羊群的偏好高度重叠。⑤AUM扩张+散户跟踪→反身效应：ARK由于今年的超群业绩，导致资金流入不断加速，形成了正反馈效果 —— 后入的资金推动持仓进入正反馈。另外，由于ARK的基金持仓透明公布，吸引了众多散户跟风，又加强了正反馈。年初，A股的网红基金其实也具备ARK的特征，实际大部分是类被动risk premia风格因子的被动投资，他们得益于央行放水的大beta，alpha含量并不高。而且散户的追涨网红基金，实际等同于散户在GME期权上long gamma，短期有大量的杠杆效应。他们实际不是价值投资，而是在和时间，和内在价值作对，想从未来攫取暴利，短期套现。ARK目前不断抛出大盘股，买入小盘股，作最后一搏。但是我们观测到:ARK的交易量明显下降，看涨期权市场已经显著萎缩 = 散户资产去gamma，去杠杆，缩水，Biden发完补助，我们并没观测到市场预期的散户大军的进场。本周，美债收益率下降，一线科技股大幅反弹，但gamma squeeze标的却出现暴跌现象（讽刺的是，A股的一线龙头 —— 茅指数在和美国抱团票 —— 垃圾股，二线科技股共振）昨晚，Yellen和Powell又双双谈到目前存在资产泡沫（US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures）。一场金融\"马陵道\"围剿的天时，地利，人和，也许都具备了。我们“慭慭然”，小心观测。西方传说上帝会在审判日那天赏善罚恶；我们并不预期2021一定是大熊市，但2021很可能是宏观层面均值回归的一年—— 表现在各个层面：时间，地域，供应链，估值，风格，人性，欲念，地球引力...“潮退了，你才知道谁在裸泳。”图片：visualcapitalist.com","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324190588,"gmtCreate":1615971249044,"gmtModify":1703495692114,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324190588","repostId":"1182718447","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325443470,"gmtCreate":1615923260390,"gmtModify":1703495083762,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>周五期权到期是不是就成了一张废纸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>周五期权到期是不是就成了一张废纸","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$周五期权到期是不是就成了一张废纸","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77abb3e65e31c170b7e22f6a04fa7792","width":"1242","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325443470","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"140512717921700","authorId":"140512717921700","name":"咸鱼清道夫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae82e7bd5753efe1e8c6c3fcf5d5c3f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"是的.你可以提前平仓. 或者卖出做空期权.","text":"是的.你可以提前平仓. 或者卖出做空期权.","html":"是的.你可以提前平仓. 或者卖出做空期权."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325420819,"gmtCreate":1615916483931,"gmtModify":1703495056312,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325420819","repostId":"1183337798","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325413695,"gmtCreate":1615911698117,"gmtModify":1703495015850,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325413695","repostId":"2119392700","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2119392700","pubTimestamp":1615824000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2119392700?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-16 00:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Things to Watch for When Sundial Growers Releases Earnings This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119392700","media":"David Jagielski","summary":"Investors are hopeful the company can rebound from a tough third quarter.","content":"<html><body><span>\n<p>Will it be a Happy St. Patrick's Day for <strong>Sundial Growers </strong><span>(NASDAQ:SNDL)</span> investors? The Canadian cannabis company reports its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, and how the numbers look could have a huge impact on where its already volatile stock will go in the weeks and months ahead -- not to mention whether or not Sundial investors will be celebrating afterwards.</p>\n<p>The business is transitioning from wholesale to retail, and management may be on the hunt for a deal, giving investors plenty of things to watch for this week. Here are six of the most important things to keep an eye on when the company releases its Q4 numbers. </p>\n<div><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F617951%2Fstack-of-cash-with-marijuana-leaves.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/617951/stack-of-cash-with-marijuana-leaves.jpg&amp;w=300&amp;op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/617951/stack-of-cash-with-marijuana-leaves.jpg&amp;w=1000&amp;op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/617951/stack-of-cash-with-marijuana-leaves.jpg&amp;w=2000&amp;op=resize 2000w\"/>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n</div>\n<h2>1. Cash, cash, and cash</h2>\n<p>Sundial is sitting on a lot of money right now -- it reported 610 million Canadian dollars in unrestricted cash after the closing of its most recent offering in early February. That is enough to buy some attractive cannabis companies today. And although Sundial is burning through lots of money, it doesn't need all that cash to keep the lights on. Over the previous three quarters, the company burned through a combined CA$45.3 million to fund its day-to-day operating activities, nowhere near its current stockpile.</p>\n<p>Investors will want to keep a close eye on the statement of cash flow this quarter to see if the company has spent much of the money it has raised, and if so, where it has gone. </p>\n<h2>2. Cost per gram</h2>\n<p>When Sundial reported its third-quarter earnings on Nov. 11, 2020, its dried bulk cost per gram sold was CA$1.18 for the period ending Sept. 30, 2020. That was a decrease of 12% from the previous period. The company is trying to get its costs down even further, targeting a cash cost per gram of CA$0.69. That would be a significant accomplishment and go a long way in not only improving its cash burn but also strengthening its bottom line, which was negative CA$71.4 million last quarter. </p><div></div>\n<h2>3. Impairment charges</h2>\n<p>Cannabis investors are no doubt familiar with impairment charges popping up on company financial statements, given the writedowns the plague the industry. And although they are non-cash items, they can still be a sign of problems within a business. They can serve as evidence that inventory isn't moving or assets are overvalued. Last quarter, Sundial recorded not <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> but two impairment charges. One was for CA$60 million to write down <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of its facilities while another was a CA$19.9 million inventory provision.</p>\n<p>The company previously said it will be transitioning away from wholesale and more toward branded retail sales. And as it deploys this change in strategy, it may move to deplete and purge more products, resulting in further writedowns in Q4.</p>\n<h2>4. SG&amp;A</h2>\n<p>In Q3, Sundial made progress in bringing down its selling, general, and administrative (SG&amp;A) expenses. General and admin costs of CA$7.2 million were down 42.3% from the prior-year period while sales and marketing costs of CA$1.1 million were 45.7% lower than a year ago. The company has reduced its workforce and paid close attention to its spending to help bring its expenses down. This will be another key area for investors to watch, to see if Sundial can continue to make progress in lowering its SG&amp;A costs. With an adjusted EBITDA loss of CA$4.4 million last quarter, Sundial still needs to find more ways to trim these expenses if it wants to break even.</p>\n<h2>5. Net revenue</h2>\n<p>One of the most disappointing numbers in Q3 was Sundial's top line. In a growth industry, investors don't want to see sales falling but that's what happened last quarter. The company's net revenue of CA$12.9 million declined an incredible 54% from the same period last year, and 36% from the previous quarter. </p><div></div>\n<p>Investors will want to monitor if the company's transition to branded retail sales is showing some progress and translating to higher sales than in Q3, or if the change is proving to be more challenging for Sundial.</p>\n<h2>6. M&amp;A</h2>\n<p>Perhaps the most intriguing item to watch for in Q4 has nothing to do with numbers at all. In Q3, Sundial said its management is undergoing a \"strategic alternatives review,\" which may or may not lead to a transaction. Given the company's cash accumulation and this being the all-important year-end quarter when a business normally announces any significant developments in the works, investors should look for an update on mergers and acquisitions. This item is last on this list because it is probably the most obvious one for Sundial investors -- speculation of a possible deal is likely why shares of the pot stock have already tripled year to date while the <strong>Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF </strong>is up by a more modest 70%.</p>\n<h2>Factor in all these items before making a decision</h2>\n<p>It will be easy to get excited about the progress on any of the aforementioned items, but investors should consider them all before making an investment decision after results are released on Wednesday. An increase in revenue may not be all that impressive if the company's costs per gram soared through the roof this past quarter. And positive news surrounding an acquisition may also be underwhelming if Sundial is burning through more cash and has less money to spend on a possible deal. By looking at all of these factors, you'll have a well-rounded picture of where the business is today and whether it is worth investing in. Focusing on just one or two of these areas could result in a bad decision.</p>\n<div></div>\n</span></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Things to Watch for When Sundial Growers Releases Earnings This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Things to Watch for When Sundial Growers Releases Earnings This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-16 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/6-things-to-watch-for-when-sundial-releases-earnin/><strong>David Jagielski</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Will it be a Happy St. Patrick's Day for Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL) investors? The Canadian cannabis company reports its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, and how the numbers look could have a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/6-things-to-watch-for-when-sundial-releases-earnin/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/16/6-things-to-watch-for-when-sundial-releases-earnin/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119392700","content_text":"Will it be a Happy St. Patrick's Day for Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL) investors? The Canadian cannabis company reports its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, and how the numbers look could have a huge impact on where its already volatile stock will go in the weeks and months ahead -- not to mention whether or not Sundial investors will be celebrating afterwards.\nThe business is transitioning from wholesale to retail, and management may be on the hunt for a deal, giving investors plenty of things to watch for this week. Here are six of the most important things to keep an eye on when the company releases its Q4 numbers. \n\nImage source: Getty Images.\n\n1. Cash, cash, and cash\nSundial is sitting on a lot of money right now -- it reported 610 million Canadian dollars in unrestricted cash after the closing of its most recent offering in early February. That is enough to buy some attractive cannabis companies today. And although Sundial is burning through lots of money, it doesn't need all that cash to keep the lights on. Over the previous three quarters, the company burned through a combined CA$45.3 million to fund its day-to-day operating activities, nowhere near its current stockpile.\nInvestors will want to keep a close eye on the statement of cash flow this quarter to see if the company has spent much of the money it has raised, and if so, where it has gone. \n2. Cost per gram\nWhen Sundial reported its third-quarter earnings on Nov. 11, 2020, its dried bulk cost per gram sold was CA$1.18 for the period ending Sept. 30, 2020. That was a decrease of 12% from the previous period. The company is trying to get its costs down even further, targeting a cash cost per gram of CA$0.69. That would be a significant accomplishment and go a long way in not only improving its cash burn but also strengthening its bottom line, which was negative CA$71.4 million last quarter. \n3. Impairment charges\nCannabis investors are no doubt familiar with impairment charges popping up on company financial statements, given the writedowns the plague the industry. And although they are non-cash items, they can still be a sign of problems within a business. They can serve as evidence that inventory isn't moving or assets are overvalued. Last quarter, Sundial recorded not one but two impairment charges. One was for CA$60 million to write down one of its facilities while another was a CA$19.9 million inventory provision.\nThe company previously said it will be transitioning away from wholesale and more toward branded retail sales. And as it deploys this change in strategy, it may move to deplete and purge more products, resulting in further writedowns in Q4.\n4. SG&A\nIn Q3, Sundial made progress in bringing down its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses. General and admin costs of CA$7.2 million were down 42.3% from the prior-year period while sales and marketing costs of CA$1.1 million were 45.7% lower than a year ago. The company has reduced its workforce and paid close attention to its spending to help bring its expenses down. This will be another key area for investors to watch, to see if Sundial can continue to make progress in lowering its SG&A costs. With an adjusted EBITDA loss of CA$4.4 million last quarter, Sundial still needs to find more ways to trim these expenses if it wants to break even.\n5. Net revenue\nOne of the most disappointing numbers in Q3 was Sundial's top line. In a growth industry, investors don't want to see sales falling but that's what happened last quarter. The company's net revenue of CA$12.9 million declined an incredible 54% from the same period last year, and 36% from the previous quarter. \nInvestors will want to monitor if the company's transition to branded retail sales is showing some progress and translating to higher sales than in Q3, or if the change is proving to be more challenging for Sundial.\n6. M&A\nPerhaps the most intriguing item to watch for in Q4 has nothing to do with numbers at all. In Q3, Sundial said its management is undergoing a \"strategic alternatives review,\" which may or may not lead to a transaction. Given the company's cash accumulation and this being the all-important year-end quarter when a business normally announces any significant developments in the works, investors should look for an update on mergers and acquisitions. This item is last on this list because it is probably the most obvious one for Sundial investors -- speculation of a possible deal is likely why shares of the pot stock have already tripled year to date while the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF is up by a more modest 70%.\nFactor in all these items before making a decision\nIt will be easy to get excited about the progress on any of the aforementioned items, but investors should consider them all before making an investment decision after results are released on Wednesday. An increase in revenue may not be all that impressive if the company's costs per gram soared through the roof this past quarter. And positive news surrounding an acquisition may also be underwhelming if Sundial is burning through more cash and has less money to spend on a possible deal. By looking at all of these factors, you'll have a well-rounded picture of where the business is today and whether it is worth investing in. Focusing on just one or two of these areas could result in a bad decision.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325863640,"gmtCreate":1615886808180,"gmtModify":1703494472973,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325863640","repostId":"325179587","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325117869,"gmtCreate":1615875022951,"gmtModify":1703494313062,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>之前在高点套了，割肉出掉，上周又接回来，不要让我失望，拜托拜托。[可怜]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>之前在高点套了，割肉出掉，上周又接回来，不要让我失望，拜托拜托。[可怜]&nbsp;","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$之前在高点套了，割肉出掉，上周又接回来，不要让我失望，拜托拜托。[可怜]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc5835bef6cb44ca0fbdfcdedaafd1c","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325117869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322421689,"gmtCreate":1615821638241,"gmtModify":1703493644721,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322421689","repostId":"328683605","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":328683605,"gmtCreate":1615520079907,"gmtModify":1717554821180,"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【暴跌启示录】裸卖看跌期权策略的危机应对特别篇","htmlText":"望着手机里不断跳动的特斯拉股价，570、565、560、555、550、...，一道道防线瞬间就像纸糊的一样被突破了，我的心感觉也被这些数字一点点地拉下了深水。隔夜风控值已经是负数，当前风控度也已经达到“非常危险”的96%了，更加要命的是，当时手头上有三张已经深度跌破行权价的看跌期权，行权价分别是680、650、625，每张期权的浮亏都接近或者超过1万刀，有被对手提前行权的风险。“出来混，总是要还的”，我想着，选了当中一张，按下了平仓的按钮，以后就上床睡觉去了，这是我的铁律：炒股绝不影响睡眠。其时是北京时间3月6日晚12点38分。这是我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损[流泪]&nbsp;。第二天起床一看，如果当时能再坚持多1个小时，股价就反弹到590以上了，真真正正地倒在了黎明前的最后一刻[笑哭]&nbsp;。我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损故事的反转对于这次市场回调之前我也不是没有觉察，早在1月中的时候，我就感觉美股市场太过火了，应该很快有一波的调整，我的重仓股特斯拉预计会有20-30%的回调，英伟达会有10-15%的回调，纳指有10%左右的回调。为此我的现金准备和仓位控制也做出了相应的调整。基于这样的判断，在2月底到3月3日的这段下跌过程，我的心态还是很平稳的，按照既定计划分批地加仓了特斯拉、方舟基金、小米、微软、Adobe等心仪股，还加仓了特斯拉两张长期看跌期权。然而我有我的计划，世界另有计划。3月3日起，特斯拉股价调整的幅度很快就突破我原先以为的范围，特斯拉回调的幅度达到了40%，手头上一批特斯拉的看跌期权很快就跌下了行权价，祸不单行的是另一个重仓英伟达也跌破了500元的支撑位，保证金迅速地下跌到危险状态。于是我不得不平仓了一些暂时盈利或者小幅亏损的期权来增加保证金，暂时地稳住了战线。可是特斯拉的股价还是在一步步坚定地后退，今年以来的盈利数字迅速地变成了负数，几张跌破","listText":"望着手机里不断跳动的特斯拉股价，570、565、560、555、550、...，一道道防线瞬间就像纸糊的一样被突破了，我的心感觉也被这些数字一点点地拉下了深水。隔夜风控值已经是负数，当前风控度也已经达到“非常危险”的96%了，更加要命的是，当时手头上有三张已经深度跌破行权价的看跌期权，行权价分别是680、650、625，每张期权的浮亏都接近或者超过1万刀，有被对手提前行权的风险。“出来混，总是要还的”，我想着，选了当中一张，按下了平仓的按钮，以后就上床睡觉去了，这是我的铁律：炒股绝不影响睡眠。其时是北京时间3月6日晚12点38分。这是我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损[流泪]&nbsp;。第二天起床一看，如果当时能再坚持多1个小时，股价就反弹到590以上了，真真正正地倒在了黎明前的最后一刻[笑哭]&nbsp;。我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损故事的反转对于这次市场回调之前我也不是没有觉察，早在1月中的时候，我就感觉美股市场太过火了，应该很快有一波的调整，我的重仓股特斯拉预计会有20-30%的回调，英伟达会有10-15%的回调，纳指有10%左右的回调。为此我的现金准备和仓位控制也做出了相应的调整。基于这样的判断，在2月底到3月3日的这段下跌过程，我的心态还是很平稳的，按照既定计划分批地加仓了特斯拉、方舟基金、小米、微软、Adobe等心仪股，还加仓了特斯拉两张长期看跌期权。然而我有我的计划，世界另有计划。3月3日起，特斯拉股价调整的幅度很快就突破我原先以为的范围，特斯拉回调的幅度达到了40%，手头上一批特斯拉的看跌期权很快就跌下了行权价，祸不单行的是另一个重仓英伟达也跌破了500元的支撑位，保证金迅速地下跌到危险状态。于是我不得不平仓了一些暂时盈利或者小幅亏损的期权来增加保证金，暂时地稳住了战线。可是特斯拉的股价还是在一步步坚定地后退，今年以来的盈利数字迅速地变成了负数，几张跌破","text":"望着手机里不断跳动的特斯拉股价，570、565、560、555、550、...，一道道防线瞬间就像纸糊的一样被突破了，我的心感觉也被这些数字一点点地拉下了深水。隔夜风控值已经是负数，当前风控度也已经达到“非常危险”的96%了，更加要命的是，当时手头上有三张已经深度跌破行权价的看跌期权，行权价分别是680、650、625，每张期权的浮亏都接近或者超过1万刀，有被对手提前行权的风险。“出来混，总是要还的”，我想着，选了当中一张，按下了平仓的按钮，以后就上床睡觉去了，这是我的铁律：炒股绝不影响睡眠。其时是北京时间3月6日晚12点38分。这是我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损[流泪] 。第二天起床一看，如果当时能再坚持多1个小时，股价就反弹到590以上了，真真正正地倒在了黎明前的最后一刻[笑哭] 。我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损故事的反转对于这次市场回调之前我也不是没有觉察，早在1月中的时候，我就感觉美股市场太过火了，应该很快有一波的调整，我的重仓股特斯拉预计会有20-30%的回调，英伟达会有10-15%的回调，纳指有10%左右的回调。为此我的现金准备和仓位控制也做出了相应的调整。基于这样的判断，在2月底到3月3日的这段下跌过程，我的心态还是很平稳的，按照既定计划分批地加仓了特斯拉、方舟基金、小米、微软、Adobe等心仪股，还加仓了特斯拉两张长期看跌期权。然而我有我的计划，世界另有计划。3月3日起，特斯拉股价调整的幅度很快就突破我原先以为的范围，特斯拉回调的幅度达到了40%，手头上一批特斯拉的看跌期权很快就跌下了行权价，祸不单行的是另一个重仓英伟达也跌破了500元的支撑位，保证金迅速地下跌到危险状态。于是我不得不平仓了一些暂时盈利或者小幅亏损的期权来增加保证金，暂时地稳住了战线。可是特斯拉的股价还是在一步步坚定地后退，今年以来的盈利数字迅速地变成了负数，几张跌破","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93cdf6c30cb071412a47aee97c966ea7","width":"1365","height":"868"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328683605","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322278183,"gmtCreate":1615814313942,"gmtModify":1703493398826,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322278183","repostId":"322288211","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":322288211,"gmtCreate":1615810276829,"gmtModify":1703493325352,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f487d6799e86204e80dfde72e6040c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【暴跌启示录】从8倍的收益率到本金亏损80%，他经历了什么？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/323064616\" target=\"_blank\">【暴跌启示录】聊聊我的交易反思&nbsp;</a>征文活动正在进行中，参与征文，就有机会成为幸运虎友，赢取最高8888虎币大奖。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的交易反思，小虎君从中选出了十篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/328683605\" target=\"_blank\">【暴跌启示录】裸卖看跌期权策略的危机应对特别篇 </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556673506813374\">@谋定后动</a> 望着手机里不断跳动的特斯拉股价，570、565、560、555、550、...，一道道防线瞬间就像纸糊的一样被突破了，我的心感觉也被这些数字一点点地拉下了深水。隔夜风控值已经是负数，当前风控度也已经达到“非常危险”的96%了，更加要命的是，当时手头上有三张已经深度跌破行权价的看跌期权，行权价分别是680、650、625，每张期权的浮亏都接近或者超过1万刀，有被对手提前行权的风险。我想着，选了当中一张，按下了平仓的按钮，这是我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损[流泪] 。第二天起床一看，如果当时能再坚持多1个小时，股价就反弹到590以上了… <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/321747601\" target=\"_blank\">从八倍的收益率到现在本金亏损百分之80%，我是如何凭运气赚的钱靠实力全亏了？ </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445338441498553\">@稳健君</a> 一开始操作比较保守因为经历过中国股市的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/323064616\" target=\"_blank\">【暴跌启示录】聊聊我的交易反思&nbsp;</a>征文活动正在进行中，参与征文，就有机会成为幸运虎友，赢取最高8888虎币大奖。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的交易反思，小虎君从中选出了十篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/328683605\" target=\"_blank\">【暴跌启示录】裸卖看跌期权策略的危机应对特别篇 </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556673506813374\">@谋定后动</a> 望着手机里不断跳动的特斯拉股价，570、565、560、555、550、...，一道道防线瞬间就像纸糊的一样被突破了，我的心感觉也被这些数字一点点地拉下了深水。隔夜风控值已经是负数，当前风控度也已经达到“非常危险”的96%了，更加要命的是，当时手头上有三张已经深度跌破行权价的看跌期权，行权价分别是680、650、625，每张期权的浮亏都接近或者超过1万刀，有被对手提前行权的风险。我想着，选了当中一张，按下了平仓的按钮，这是我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损[流泪] 。第二天起床一看，如果当时能再坚持多1个小时，股价就反弹到590以上了… <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/321747601\" target=\"_blank\">从八倍的收益率到现在本金亏损百分之80%，我是如何凭运气赚的钱靠实力全亏了？ </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3445338441498553\">@稳健君</a> 一开始操作比较保守因为经历过中国股市的","text":"【暴跌启示录】聊聊我的交易反思 征文活动正在进行中，参与征文，就有机会成为幸运虎友，赢取最高8888虎币大奖。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的交易反思，小虎君从中选出了十篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： 【暴跌启示录】裸卖看跌期权策略的危机应对特别篇 @谋定后动 望着手机里不断跳动的特斯拉股价，570、565、560、555、550、...，一道道防线瞬间就像纸糊的一样被突破了，我的心感觉也被这些数字一点点地拉下了深水。隔夜风控值已经是负数，当前风控度也已经达到“非常危险”的96%了，更加要命的是，当时手头上有三张已经深度跌破行权价的看跌期权，行权价分别是680、650、625，每张期权的浮亏都接近或者超过1万刀，有被对手提前行权的风险。我想着，选了当中一张，按下了平仓的按钮，这是我10年投资经历中最大的单笔亏损[流泪] 。第二天起床一看，如果当时能再坚持多1个小时，股价就反弹到590以上了… 从八倍的收益率到现在本金亏损百分之80%，我是如何凭运气赚的钱靠实力全亏了？ @稳健君 一开始操作比较保守因为经历过中国股市的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0f574db3c6ecb903e559b3fcee2092","width":"840","height":"540"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322288211","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322208643,"gmtCreate":1615807052382,"gmtModify":1703493268044,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？电音之王？货币大师？？？","listText":"？电音之王？货币大师？？？","text":"？电音之王？货币大师？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322208643","repostId":"1158775004","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158775004","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615804971,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158775004?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-15 18:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO将公司职位头衔“改名”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158775004","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月15日，据SEC披露文件，特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO Zach Kirkhorn将在公司的职位头衔改为“特斯拉电音之王”与“货币大师”，变动于3月15日生效。马斯克和Kirkhorn将维持原有的职位。该公司还披露，自2021年3月11日起，特斯拉公司汽车总裁杰罗姆·吉伦过渡为特斯拉重型卡车总裁。自2018年9月以来，Guillen先生成功地监督特斯拉的汽车项目、供应链和服务基础设施，并有助于领导者、组织和流程的发展，能够继续指导和运营我们的乘用车项目的这些功能。","content":"<p>3月15日，据SEC披露文件，特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO Zach Kirkhorn将在公司的职位头衔改为“特斯拉电音之王”与“货币大师”(Technoking of Tesla and Master of Coin)，变动于3月15日生效。马斯克和Kirkhorn将维持原有的职位。</p><p>该公司还披露，自2021年3月11日起，特斯拉公司(“特斯拉”)汽车总裁杰罗姆·吉伦(Jerome Guillen)过渡为特斯拉重型卡车总裁。自2018年9月以来，Guillen先生成功地监督特斯拉的汽车项目、供应链和服务基础设施，并有助于领导者、组织和流程的发展，能够继续指导和运营我们的乘用车项目的这些功能。随着特斯拉准备首次进入关键的重型卡车市场，Guillen先生现在将利用他在该行业的广泛背景，专注于并领导特斯拉Semi项目的所有方面，包括相关的充电和服务网络。</p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO将公司职位头衔“改名”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO将公司职位头衔“改名”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-15 18:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月15日，据SEC披露文件，特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO Zach Kirkhorn将在公司的职位头衔改为“特斯拉电音之王”与“货币大师”(Technoking of Tesla and Master of Coin)，变动于3月15日生效。马斯克和Kirkhorn将维持原有的职位。</p><p>该公司还披露，自2021年3月11日起，特斯拉公司(“特斯拉”)汽车总裁杰罗姆·吉伦(Jerome Guillen)过渡为特斯拉重型卡车总裁。自2018年9月以来，Guillen先生成功地监督特斯拉的汽车项目、供应链和服务基础设施，并有助于领导者、组织和流程的发展，能够继续指导和运营我们的乘用车项目的这些功能。随着特斯拉准备首次进入关键的重型卡车市场，Guillen先生现在将利用他在该行业的广泛背景，专注于并领导特斯拉Semi项目的所有方面，包括相关的充电和服务网络。</p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25938de6d968b35e73bf3575f330760e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158775004","content_text":"3月15日，据SEC披露文件，特斯拉CEO马斯克和CFO Zach Kirkhorn将在公司的职位头衔改为“特斯拉电音之王”与“货币大师”(Technoking of Tesla and Master of Coin)，变动于3月15日生效。马斯克和Kirkhorn将维持原有的职位。该公司还披露，自2021年3月11日起，特斯拉公司(“特斯拉”)汽车总裁杰罗姆·吉伦(Jerome Guillen)过渡为特斯拉重型卡车总裁。自2018年9月以来，Guillen先生成功地监督特斯拉的汽车项目、供应链和服务基础设施，并有助于领导者、组织和流程的发展，能够继续指导和运营我们的乘用车项目的这些功能。随着特斯拉准备首次进入关键的重型卡车市场，Guillen先生现在将利用他在该行业的广泛背景，专注于并领导特斯拉Semi项目的所有方面，包括相关的充电和服务网络。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322886136,"gmtCreate":1615795364725,"gmtModify":1703493033556,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322886136","repostId":"368648400","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322157847,"gmtCreate":1615786986889,"gmtModify":1703492938060,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322157847","repostId":"322112785","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":322112785,"gmtCreate":1615782458944,"gmtModify":1703492875380,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"港股周策略：百度、B站来了！二次上市都有哪些投资策略？","htmlText":"投资要点 一、市场风格评注：上升趋势相对完整，恒指调整或近尾声。 二、汽车之家、百度、哔哩哔哩领衔，二次上市潮再燃，关注折价发行下的布局机会。 三、陆港通观察：两会强调经济向服务和支出方向演变，资金持续流入消费、金融。 一、指数环境评估：恒指调整或近尾声 从周线窗口来看，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> 自去年Q4探底以来的上升趋势仍然保持相对完整，显示近期印花税和美债波动的冲击，目前为止并没有对恒指构成逆转，短期来看，恒指这轮调整或已接近尾声； 对于中期，基于海外市场流动性中期依然向好的判断，我们延续年初时观点：继续看好恒指Q1整体保持强势表现，同时年内冲击33000点历史最强水平。风格上，今年的政府工作报告和十四五规划草案中提出经济向服务和支出方向演变，预计对消费股形成支撑。二、二次上市潮再燃，都有哪些新契机？ <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">$汽车之家(ATHM)$</a>上周二最终定价176.3港元，较定价日前美股价格折让5.76%，较上周五收盘折让5.5%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 开启招股至3月17日本周三，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 也将紧随其后，目前赴港二次上市已获批，最早有望在下周启动。 对于二次上市，有那些打新策略值得借鉴呢？我们认为，从已完成二次上市的 9 家中概来看，我们初步可以得出以下结论： 1.定价上，二次上市通常较美股有 2%-5%左右的折让；2.","listText":"投资要点 一、市场风格评注：上升趋势相对完整，恒指调整或近尾声。 二、汽车之家、百度、哔哩哔哩领衔，二次上市潮再燃，关注折价发行下的布局机会。 三、陆港通观察：两会强调经济向服务和支出方向演变，资金持续流入消费、金融。 一、指数环境评估：恒指调整或近尾声 从周线窗口来看，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> 自去年Q4探底以来的上升趋势仍然保持相对完整，显示近期印花税和美债波动的冲击，目前为止并没有对恒指构成逆转，短期来看，恒指这轮调整或已接近尾声； 对于中期，基于海外市场流动性中期依然向好的判断，我们延续年初时观点：继续看好恒指Q1整体保持强势表现，同时年内冲击33000点历史最强水平。风格上，今年的政府工作报告和十四五规划草案中提出经济向服务和支出方向演变，预计对消费股形成支撑。二、二次上市潮再燃，都有哪些新契机？ <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">$汽车之家(ATHM)$</a>上周二最终定价176.3港元，较定价日前美股价格折让5.76%，较上周五收盘折让5.5%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 开启招股至3月17日本周三，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 也将紧随其后，目前赴港二次上市已获批，最早有望在下周启动。 对于二次上市，有那些打新策略值得借鉴呢？我们认为，从已完成二次上市的 9 家中概来看，我们初步可以得出以下结论： 1.定价上，二次上市通常较美股有 2%-5%左右的折让；2.","text":"投资要点 一、市场风格评注：上升趋势相对完整，恒指调整或近尾声。 二、汽车之家、百度、哔哩哔哩领衔，二次上市潮再燃，关注折价发行下的布局机会。 三、陆港通观察：两会强调经济向服务和支出方向演变，资金持续流入消费、金融。 一、指数环境评估：恒指调整或近尾声 从周线窗口来看，$恒生指数(HSI)$ 自去年Q4探底以来的上升趋势仍然保持相对完整，显示近期印花税和美债波动的冲击，目前为止并没有对恒指构成逆转，短期来看，恒指这轮调整或已接近尾声； 对于中期，基于海外市场流动性中期依然向好的判断，我们延续年初时观点：继续看好恒指Q1整体保持强势表现，同时年内冲击33000点历史最强水平。风格上，今年的政府工作报告和十四五规划草案中提出经济向服务和支出方向演变，预计对消费股形成支撑。二、二次上市潮再燃，都有哪些新契机？ $汽车之家(ATHM)$上周二最终定价176.3港元，较定价日前美股价格折让5.76%，较上周五收盘折让5.5%，$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 开启招股至3月17日本周三，$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 也将紧随其后，目前赴港二次上市已获批，最早有望在下周启动。 对于二次上市，有那些打新策略值得借鉴呢？我们认为，从已完成二次上市的 9 家中概来看，我们初步可以得出以下结论： 1.定价上，二次上市通常较美股有 2%-5%左右的折让；2.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb65f45fc2d2209d8642d1cffb65e774","width":"1203","height":"694"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412e3a3b85c3d66d1845aec7725ce5be","width":"1154","height":"686"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d2ee065a921698e7bcfba958987181c","width":"717","height":"390"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322112785","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322157970,"gmtCreate":1615786977290,"gmtModify":1703492937197,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322157970","repostId":"322166094","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":322166094,"gmtCreate":1615784032518,"gmtModify":1703492900240,"author":{"id":"9889909672494","authorId":"9889909672494","name":"小安先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4849e7d0100445dc3f113e8b1397b003","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"港股|恒指|股票分析|腾讯控股|小米集团|美团|悲观预期概率逐渐增多，但！有现金就不必太过于紧张。","htmlText":"\n \n \n  如果您想第一时间获取我的分析研究欢迎大家同步订阅我的YT频道https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc_Hk31TyDFyF1sNviwd00A?sub_confirmation=1交易日北京时间中午12：30分更新港股实时市场观察交易日美东时间早11：00（冬令时）北京时间晚12点盘中直播 美股实时观察。Email：answerbaby913@gmail.com<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MHImain\">$小恒指主连(MHImain)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">$中国国航(00753)$</a>&nbsp;\n \n","listText":"如果您想第一时间获取我的分析研究欢迎大家同步订阅我的YT频道https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc_Hk31TyDFyF1sNviwd00A?sub_confirmation=1交易日北京时间中午12：30分更新港股实时市场观察交易日美东时间早11：00（冬令时）北京时间晚12点盘中直播 美股实时观察。Email：answerbaby913@gmail.com<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MHImain\">$小恒指主连(MHImain)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00753\">$中国国航(00753)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"如果您想第一时间获取我的分析研究欢迎大家同步订阅我的YT频道https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCc_Hk31TyDFyF1sNviwd00A?sub_confirmation=1交易日北京时间中午12：30分更新港股实时市场观察交易日美东时间早11：00（冬令时）北京时间晚12点盘中直播 美股实时观察。Email：answerbaby913@gmail.com$美团-W(03690)$ $腾讯控股(00700)$ $小米集团-W(01810)$ $小恒指主连(MHImain)$ $中国国航(00753)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e84684dca337a5a8cf1e338c490e2e8","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322166094","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"ec2a0296c3a44ffe964d3f3ddd535f8e","tweetId":"322166094","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/e2937e2a5285890815493090351/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e84684dca337a5a8cf1e338c490e2e8"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322054654,"gmtCreate":1615748352178,"gmtModify":1703492515692,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322054654","repostId":"326868385","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":326868385,"gmtCreate":1615614806547,"gmtModify":1703491653816,"author":{"id":"3572212908677301","authorId":"3572212908677301","name":"JayceLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697be0b87a439db9bb3e696889951c59","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"寻找未被发掘的冷门股","htmlText":"看看你的持仓，是不是都是热门股？[惊讶] 热门股暴涨快，短期看着非常舒服，但是你有没有想过寻找未被发掘的冷门股呢？[疑问] 今天要说的是有潜力而被忽略的公司。在华尔街大佬没发现前进场，陪同公司一起成长。可能将来也会成为一个受关注的热门股。而你作为最先发掘的将会有巨大成就感。[你懂的] 但是如何寻找这种公司呢？让我用最近找到的一家公司的特质来给大家讲解。我找到的这家公司是 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFT\">$Shift Technologies, Inc.(SFT)$</a>，在10月13日2020年通过SPAC Merger上市。Shift凭借其独特的技术平台和服务模型，建立了一家最先进的汽车电子商务公司。利用专有技术，Shift为消费者提供了一个全面，无缝的流程，供消费者购买，出售，交易，融资和购买二手车。[嘘] 我是因为看到他们财报比预期的好，股价也还在合理范围，就决定建仓观察。没想到买了后连续3天上涨，周五以$10.15美元高价收盘。本来想离场了，可昨天看到我老师说投资要有耐心，不能涨一点就卖飞，跌一点就割肉。我认真想了想，决定在这股没被炒作之前都继续持有，耐心等待成长。[正经] 以下是我认为这股有潜力的原因：1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的名字[无语] Shift这名字一听就感觉乏味，容易被忽略2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的商业模式[黑眼圈] 大家看了这公司的介绍估计只注意到是家出售，交易，融资和购买二手车的公司，一样感觉乏味，容易被忽略3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有知名度，不被关注[摊手] 没什么华尔街的分析师关注，还未被发现4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有增长的行业[惊吓] 比较不用担心会有其","listText":"看看你的持仓，是不是都是热门股？[惊讶] 热门股暴涨快，短期看着非常舒服，但是你有没有想过寻找未被发掘的冷门股呢？[疑问] 今天要说的是有潜力而被忽略的公司。在华尔街大佬没发现前进场，陪同公司一起成长。可能将来也会成为一个受关注的热门股。而你作为最先发掘的将会有巨大成就感。[你懂的] 但是如何寻找这种公司呢？让我用最近找到的一家公司的特质来给大家讲解。我找到的这家公司是 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFT\">$Shift Technologies, Inc.(SFT)$</a>，在10月13日2020年通过SPAC Merger上市。Shift凭借其独特的技术平台和服务模型，建立了一家最先进的汽车电子商务公司。利用专有技术，Shift为消费者提供了一个全面，无缝的流程，供消费者购买，出售，交易，融资和购买二手车。[嘘] 我是因为看到他们财报比预期的好，股价也还在合理范围，就决定建仓观察。没想到买了后连续3天上涨，周五以$10.15美元高价收盘。本来想离场了，可昨天看到我老师说投资要有耐心，不能涨一点就卖飞，跌一点就割肉。我认真想了想，决定在这股没被炒作之前都继续持有，耐心等待成长。[正经] 以下是我认为这股有潜力的原因：1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的名字[无语] Shift这名字一听就感觉乏味，容易被忽略2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的商业模式[黑眼圈] 大家看了这公司的介绍估计只注意到是家出售，交易，融资和购买二手车的公司，一样感觉乏味，容易被忽略3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有知名度，不被关注[摊手] 没什么华尔街的分析师关注，还未被发现4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有增长的行业[惊吓] 比较不用担心会有其","text":"看看你的持仓，是不是都是热门股？[惊讶] 热门股暴涨快，短期看着非常舒服，但是你有没有想过寻找未被发掘的冷门股呢？[疑问] 今天要说的是有潜力而被忽略的公司。在华尔街大佬没发现前进场，陪同公司一起成长。可能将来也会成为一个受关注的热门股。而你作为最先发掘的将会有巨大成就感。[你懂的] 但是如何寻找这种公司呢？让我用最近找到的一家公司的特质来给大家讲解。我找到的这家公司是 $Shift Technologies, Inc.(SFT)$，在10月13日2020年通过SPAC Merger上市。Shift凭借其独特的技术平台和服务模型，建立了一家最先进的汽车电子商务公司。利用专有技术，Shift为消费者提供了一个全面，无缝的流程，供消费者购买，出售，交易，融资和购买二手车。[嘘] 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热门股暴涨快，短期看着非常舒服，但是你有没有想过寻找未被发掘的冷门股呢？[疑问] 今天要说的是有潜力而被忽略的公司。在华尔街大佬没发现前进场，陪同公司一起成长。可能将来也会成为一个受关注的热门股。而你作为最先发掘的将会有巨大成就感。[你懂的] 但是如何寻找这种公司呢？让我用最近找到的一家公司的特质来给大家讲解。我找到的这家公司是 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFT\">$Shift Technologies, Inc.(SFT)$</a>，在10月13日2020年通过SPAC Merger上市。Shift凭借其独特的技术平台和服务模型，建立了一家最先进的汽车电子商务公司。利用专有技术，Shift为消费者提供了一个全面，无缝的流程，供消费者购买，出售，交易，融资和购买二手车。[嘘] 我是因为看到他们财报比预期的好，股价也还在合理范围，就决定建仓观察。没想到买了后连续3天上涨，周五以$10.15美元高价收盘。本来想离场了，可昨天看到我老师说投资要有耐心，不能涨一点就卖飞，跌一点就割肉。我认真想了想，决定在这股没被炒作之前都继续持有，耐心等待成长。[正经] 以下是我认为这股有潜力的原因：1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的名字[无语] Shift这名字一听就感觉乏味，容易被忽略2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的商业模式[黑眼圈] 大家看了这公司的介绍估计只注意到是家出售，交易，融资和购买二手车的公司，一样感觉乏味，容易被忽略3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有知名度，不被关注[摊手] 没什么华尔街的分析师关注，还未被发现4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有增长的行业[惊吓] 比较不用担心会有其","listText":"看看你的持仓，是不是都是热门股？[惊讶] 热门股暴涨快，短期看着非常舒服，但是你有没有想过寻找未被发掘的冷门股呢？[疑问] 今天要说的是有潜力而被忽略的公司。在华尔街大佬没发现前进场，陪同公司一起成长。可能将来也会成为一个受关注的热门股。而你作为最先发掘的将会有巨大成就感。[你懂的] 但是如何寻找这种公司呢？让我用最近找到的一家公司的特质来给大家讲解。我找到的这家公司是 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SFT\">$Shift Technologies, Inc.(SFT)$</a>，在10月13日2020年通过SPAC Merger上市。Shift凭借其独特的技术平台和服务模型，建立了一家最先进的汽车电子商务公司。利用专有技术，Shift为消费者提供了一个全面，无缝的流程，供消费者购买，出售，交易，融资和购买二手车。[嘘] 我是因为看到他们财报比预期的好，股价也还在合理范围，就决定建仓观察。没想到买了后连续3天上涨，周五以$10.15美元高价收盘。本来想离场了，可昨天看到我老师说投资要有耐心，不能涨一点就卖飞，跌一点就割肉。我认真想了想，决定在这股没被炒作之前都继续持有，耐心等待成长。[正经] 以下是我认为这股有潜力的原因：1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的名字[无语] Shift这名字一听就感觉乏味，容易被忽略2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;呆板的商业模式[黑眼圈] 大家看了这公司的介绍估计只注意到是家出售，交易，融资和购买二手车的公司，一样感觉乏味，容易被忽略3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有知名度，不被关注[摊手] 没什么华尔街的分析师关注，还未被发现4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;没有增长的行业[惊吓] 比较不用担心会有其","text":"看看你的持仓，是不是都是热门股？[惊讶] 热门股暴涨快，短期看着非常舒服，但是你有没有想过寻找未被发掘的冷门股呢？[疑问] 今天要说的是有潜力而被忽略的公司。在华尔街大佬没发现前进场，陪同公司一起成长。可能将来也会成为一个受关注的热门股。而你作为最先发掘的将会有巨大成就感。[你懂的] 但是如何寻找这种公司呢？让我用最近找到的一家公司的特质来给大家讲解。我找到的这家公司是 $Shift Technologies, Inc.(SFT)$，在10月13日2020年通过SPAC Merger上市。Shift凭借其独特的技术平台和服务模型，建立了一家最先进的汽车电子商务公司。利用专有技术，Shift为消费者提供了一个全面，无缝的流程，供消费者购买，出售，交易，融资和购买二手车。[嘘] 我是因为看到他们财报比预期的好，股价也还在合理范围，就决定建仓观察。没想到买了后连续3天上涨，周五以$10.15美元高价收盘。本来想离场了，可昨天看到我老师说投资要有耐心，不能涨一点就卖飞，跌一点就割肉。我认真想了想，决定在这股没被炒作之前都继续持有，耐心等待成长。[正经] 以下是我认为这股有潜力的原因：1. 呆板的名字[无语] Shift这名字一听就感觉乏味，容易被忽略2. 呆板的商业模式[黑眼圈] 大家看了这公司的介绍估计只注意到是家出售，交易，融资和购买二手车的公司，一样感觉乏味，容易被忽略3. 没有知名度，不被关注[摊手] 没什么华尔街的分析师关注，还未被发现4. 没有增长的行业[惊吓] 比较不用担心会有其","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc11adb26546f6e9108010c066a1b96a"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401c6c96e3351958a642e1b42430833b"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d99d8d9b7aa82e09ad7cf15fdc660108"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326868385","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":325117869,"gmtCreate":1615875022951,"gmtModify":1703494313062,"author":{"id":"3557122076399013","authorId":"3557122076399013","name":"冰冰大美女","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ea4c9739cb32874134874089a446ec","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>之前在高点套了，割肉出掉，上周又接回来，不要让我失望，拜托拜托。[可怜]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>之前在高点套了，割肉出掉，上周又接回来，不要让我失望，拜托拜托。[可怜]&nbsp;","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$之前在高点套了，割肉出掉，上周又接回来，不要让我失望，拜托拜托。[可怜]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc5835bef6cb44ca0fbdfcdedaafd1c","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325117869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}