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allen___4469

allen___4469

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06-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 是不是已经市值第一了

11-22

$Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF(MSTX)$ 为啥两倍涨不过正股

12-05

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 快要掉水下了，真牛逼

06-06

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 总算破1200了，不墨迹了

12-13

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 真就磨了一个月没动了

09-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 日常冲高回落

08-26

空帖子？

3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings

05-31

好文

从拼多多到英伟达，这个时代最赚钱的生意都是同类

05-01

哇

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a> 快要掉水下了，真牛逼","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 快要掉水下了，真牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378397887045824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373789126336808,"gmtCreate":1732287430325,"gmtModify":1732287431444,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTX\">$Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF(MSTX)$&nbsp;</a> 为啥两倍涨不过正股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTX\">$Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF(MSTX)$&nbsp;</a> 为啥两倍涨不过正股","text":"$Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF(MSTX)$ 为啥两倍涨不过正股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373789126336808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351156274315448,"gmtCreate":1726754034961,"gmtModify":1726754036072,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 日常冲高回落","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 日常冲高回落","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 日常冲高回落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351156274315448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342596422603136,"gmtCreate":1724646873901,"gmtModify":1724646875814,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"空帖子？","listText":"空帖子？","text":"空帖子？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342596422603136","repostId":"2461374296","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461374296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724643065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2461374296?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-26 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461374296","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.</p></li><li><p>NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.</p></li><li><p>Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.</p></li><li><p>Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.</p></li><li><p>NVDA&#39;s current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.</p></li><li><p>The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&amp;P.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d22057eb1489b30e626df04aa8235a7f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Deagreez</p><p>For Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it&#39;s been a volatile few weeks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eac5181a580805cb6ad1dfa56e7b91b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f31eb5cb3f9d4f5c49917c86f95e83f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>From its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.</p><p>That&#39;s a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.</p><p>And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.</p><p><strong>I Was &#34;Greedy When Others Were Fearful&#34; During The Recent Market Pullback</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deea900a18efe8b61dced45203751fe1\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>Morningstar</p><p>I use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA&#39;s normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&amp;P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.</p><p>I didn&#39;t nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.</p><p>Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA&#39;s fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA&#39;s future was brighter than ever.</p><p>So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it&#39;s still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.</p><h2 id=\"id_1928948722\">Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 Earnings</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe73882f9d45c88ba5afd9f998655c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.</p><p>As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a54a6e424a2db68eb5127a62b6f7072d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3704d62e8b8a9249625bf0af81fd6bb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA&#39;s track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.</p><p>Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it&#39;s increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.</p><p>Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.</p><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a &#34;buy&#34; recommendation, highlighting Nvidia&#39;s competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.</p><p><strong>Jefferies</strong>: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.</p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities</strong>: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia&#39;s ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia&#39;s earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.</p><p>Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.</p><p>All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.</p><p>That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.</p><h2 id=\"id_811311096\">2025 Outlook Is Soaring</h2><blockquote><p>In terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia&#39;s GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.&#34; - Morgan Stanley</p></blockquote><p>KeyBank has similar estimates of &#34;at least $210 billion&#34; in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.</p><p>Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before Earnings</p></li></ul><p>As I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA&#39;s potential sales in 2025, per TSMC&#39;s supply ramp, is <strong>up to $265 billion.</strong></p><p>KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn&#39;t going away; it will be a lower-cost option.</p><p>$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM&#39;s ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.</p><p>Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.</p></li><li><p>To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4454022ee542f0385b00cca8bf09969\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.</p><p>NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.</p><p>What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2abcfe5aaa2da5574850f6338013d37f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>Assuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and <strong>$114 billion in free cash flow next year.</strong></p><p>The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Fair Value Profile</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Aug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)</p></li><li><p>Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)</p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)</em></strong></p></li><li><p>Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): <strong>$250 to $275 (106% upside)</strong></p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upside</em></strong></p></li></ul><p>The current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.</p><p>Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.</p><p>In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).</p><p>In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).</p><h2 id=\"id_4170491251\">Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting Stronger</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/adcc5d7ee4ea1a7b8865ec031674389b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.</p><p>Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.</p><p>Here&#39;s what that looks like in the medium term.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Sales</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating Income)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Income</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$58,039</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$25,051</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$33,240</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$34,748</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$27,603</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$115,536</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$57,624</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$74,897</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$75,564</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$61,025</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$163,532</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$78,290</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$106,824</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$107,248</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$85,132</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$194,395</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$94,500</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$131,407</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$126,724</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$105,058</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$227,147</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$114,526</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$147,514</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,372</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$263,891</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$159,219</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$140,294</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$271,796</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$175,244</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$146,898</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Annualized Growth 2024-2029</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>29.3%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.2%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>58.1%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>31.0%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.1%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Cumulative 2024-2029</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$1,236,297</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$344,940</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$313,128</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$791,513</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$659,779</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.</p><p>And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Nvidia Margin Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating) Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Margin</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.6%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.8%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.4%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>60.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.2%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annualized Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>4.0%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>5.7%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.2%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2.2%</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>&#34;Nvidia&#39;s margins can&#39;t possibly be maintained for long.&#34;</p><p>Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can&#39;t even dream of.</p><p>Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia&#39;s value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.</p><p>Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.</p><p>Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world&#39;s most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?</p><p>The world&#39;s wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.</p><p>In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.</p><p>Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.</p><p>In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.</p><p>And here&#39;s why that matters. Most companies don&#39;t need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn&#39;t as important as energy and cost.</p><p>In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.</p><p>For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.</p><p>Today&#39;s AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).</p><p>For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.</p><p>Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3556749b3d37a2bcac03cba1bb640cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>NVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&amp;D, and that is expected to continue growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a3e393c461d7f4f64d80a6a11be1dc6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s R&amp;D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company&#39;s historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.</p><p>In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn&#39;t sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.</p><blockquote><p>The more you buy the more you save.&#34; - Jensen Huang&#39;s sales pitch at keynotes</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b16784118d501e9a61ea72a0991bc002\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>Glassdoor</p><p>Since 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17cd68b32e5c86dc14a191362ceb6166\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"817\"/></p><p>Blind</p><p>76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.</p><p>If you&#39;re a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?</p><p>Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.</p><p><strong>Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9df89c5aa021d7e8f207a4aba132ad77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Jensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.</p><p>If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.</p><h2 id=\"id_170916229\">Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream Stock</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Metric</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Total Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$4,097.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$925.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$447.31</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Inflation-Adjusted Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,145.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$484.74</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$234.19</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Starting Yield</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.18%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Yield On Cost</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>89.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.96%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.68%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.28%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.12%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annual Income Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30.6%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA didn&#39;t start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&amp;P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.</p><p>Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.</p><h2 id=\"id_3538347583\">Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price</h2><p>No one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.</p><p>The major concern many investors have is whether it&#39;s overvalued.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7e88dfddc67d0ddaaafa7c5ddaa526e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.</p><p>Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year&#39;s estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.</p><p>So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2254745276\">Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value Profile</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Time Frame (Years)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average PE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average P/FCF</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual FCF Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS PEG</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF PEG</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.97</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.23</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.27</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.02</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.95</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.93</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.26</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.99</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.06</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.56</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.87</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.65</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.66</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.49</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.68</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.12</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.84</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>41.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.69</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.80</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.02</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.48</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>62.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.62</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.08</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.75</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.33</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.28</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.89</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>51.53</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.16</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>73.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>79.72</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>87.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>83.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>92.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>288.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>614.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.15</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.3645</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>50.426</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>59.4925</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>72.697</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.89</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.06</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.99</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.66</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>47.84</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.94</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.88</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.08</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>2030 FCF Consensus</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>$154,421.06</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Current Market Cap</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,420,000.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2029 Fair Value</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annualized Return Potential</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$6,587,602.59</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Median)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>172.21%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$350.09</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>22.25%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$7,786,836.57</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Average)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>221.77%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$412.86</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>26.35%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That&#39;s not opinion. It&#39;s objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it&#39;s objectively not overvalued.</p><p>The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.</p><p>That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.</p><p>That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.</p><p>Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.</p><h2 id=\"id_1005571806\">Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn&#39;t Right For Everyone</h2><p>Options markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea024618bf310da9de53b8fa37c04d71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>Reuters</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.</p><p>And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.</p><p>It&#39;s easy to be &#34;greedy when others are fearful&#34; when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA&#39;s earnings decline?</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Years</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Peak Decline</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-82%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-78.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2013 to 2014</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-30.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-62.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-36%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-48.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-24%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-46.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)</em></p><p>In the last 15 years, NVDA&#39;s median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.</p><p>The market&#39;s median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.</p><p>If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA&#39;s current AI lead.</p><p>New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.</p><p><strong>ASICs</strong>: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google&#39;s TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.</p><p><strong>TPUs</strong>: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google&#39;s machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.</p><p><strong>FPGAs</strong>: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.</p><p>These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.</p><p>NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99b6b6beb6b28bea17e0c91b56174fd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>Here are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.</p><p>And here&#39;s how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.</p><h2 id=\"id_2906987552\">10% Worst Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-48.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.12%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2008</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>7</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-38.89%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.64%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.90%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.88%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.14%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.16%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-34.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.09%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.78%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-31.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.84%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-27.72%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.05%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25.07%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.23%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.67%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.61%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.35%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2018</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>11</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-22.40%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.26%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.85%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2010</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.99%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.89%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.53%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.82%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.24%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.01%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.85%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-4.94%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.43%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.92%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-10.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.80%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2011</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>3</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-18.53%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.45%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.01%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.65%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-15.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-16.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.83%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-25.30%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-7.96%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-4.81%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-22.40%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-8.23%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-5.17%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It&#39;s fallen by almost 50% in a single month.</p><p>It&#39;s fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&amp;P and Nasdaq were flat!</p><p>If you can&#39;t tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.</p><h2 id=\"id_3661157528\">10% Best Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2003</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.52%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.48%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.68%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.74%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>55.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.33%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-17.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.95%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.23%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.90%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.34%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.46%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.69%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.64%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.29%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.63%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.37%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.70%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.77%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.18%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.44%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.68%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.04%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.96%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.64%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.06%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.09%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.98%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.56%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.63%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>7.52%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.52%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.29%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>6.15%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.45%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA&#39;s 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.</p><p>Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?</p><p>The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.</p><p>Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75602ba57743d090b88e1c3c02805c91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"592\"/></p><p>DK</p><p>This is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don&#39;t care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.</p><p>By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA&#39;s extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7435f5638696097962ff9f887dc9f790\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>NVDA&#39;s 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&amp;P&#39;s 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq&#39;s 15% worst monthly returns.</p><p>NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.</p><p>It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b926948bee47b2ae775fc6fde67d425c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\"/></p><p>Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETF</p></li></ul><p>For example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside with 22% of its downside.</p><p>25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&amp;P upside, with a 26% downside.</p><p>That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&amp;P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My Portfolio</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f04095f0a7838c320c83cfa5691a2483\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/></p><p>Since April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I&#39;m not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.</p><h4 id=\"id_2011515392\">Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control Volatility</h4><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51dc5f93b968e43a6a4ae830454d15e9\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"743\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&amp;D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85e9f47a0f07ff31c481fabf5b91da78\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p><p>S&amp;P</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P LT Risk Management Score</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Rating</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0% to 9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10% to 19%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20% to 29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Suboptimal</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30% to 59%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Acceptable</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>60% to 69%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Good</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70% to 79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Good</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>80+%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Exceptional</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>NVDA</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>64.80%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Global Percentile</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>88.37%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: S&amp;P)</em></p><h2 id=\"id_1302024128\">Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The Year</h2><p>Let me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year&#39;s final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.</p><p>NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.</p><p>Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we&#39;ve seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.</p><p>NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.</p><p>But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.</p><p>It&#39;s critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.</p><p>The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.</p><p>But leave the speculation to the traders. Don&#39;t attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.</p><p>Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear Markets</p></li><li><p>The report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.</p></li></ul><p>I&#39;m targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.</p><p>That&#39;s because TSM&#39;s ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.</p><p>That means NVDA&#39;s potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.</p><p>Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.</p><p>Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.</p><p>I&#39;ll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy&#39;s performance, based on my portfolio&#39;s algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family&#39;s needs at any time.</p><p>I&#39;m not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I&#39;m using myself as an example.</p><p>I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.</p><p>But the bottom line? With high confidence, I&#39;m riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:</p><p><strong>My NVDA Earnings Expectations</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>$30 to $50 billion buyback</p></li><li><p>Possibly a doubling of the dividend.</p></li><li><p>12.5% to 20% beat and raise.</p></li><li><p>5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).</p></li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 11:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2461374296","content_text":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.NVDA's current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&P.DeagreezFor Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it's been a volatile few weeks.YchartsYchartsFrom its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.That's a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.I Was \"Greedy When Others Were Fearful\" During The Recent Market PullbackMorningstarI use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA's normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.I didn't nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA's fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA's future was brighter than ever.So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it's still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 EarningsSeeking AlphaNVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.Seeking AlphaSeeking AlphaNVDA's track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it's increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.Goldman Sachs: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a \"buy\" recommendation, highlighting Nvidia's competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.Jefferies: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.Wedbush Securities: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia's ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia's earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.2025 Outlook Is SoaringIn terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia's GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.\" - Morgan StanleyKeyBank has similar estimates of \"at least $210 billion\" in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before EarningsAs I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA's potential sales in 2025, per TSMC's supply ramp, is up to $265 billion.KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn't going away; it will be a lower-cost option.$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM's ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.FactSetThe current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?FactSetAssuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and $114 billion in free cash flow next year.The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.Nvidia Fair Value ProfileAug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): $250 to $275 (106% upside)Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upsideThe current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting StrongerFactSetThe median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.Here's what that looks like in the medium term.Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus ForecastYearSalesFree Cash FlowEBITDAEBIT (Operating Income)Net Income2023$58,039$25,051$33,240$34,748$27,6032024$115,536$57,624$74,897$75,564$61,0252025$163,532$78,290$106,824$107,248$85,1322026$194,395$94,500$131,407$126,724$105,0582027$227,147$114,526NA$147,514$121,3722028$263,891NANA$159,219$140,2942029$271,796NANA$175,244$146,898Annualized Growth 2024-202929.3%46.2%58.1%31.0%32.1%Cumulative 2024-2029$1,236,297$344,940$313,128$791,513$659,779Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.Nvidia Margin Consensus ForecastYearFCF MarginEBITDA MarginEBIT (Operating) MarginNet Margin202343.2%57.3%59.9%47.6%202449.9%64.8%65.4%52.8%202547.9%65.3%65.6%52.1%202648.6%67.6%65.2%54.0%202750.4%NA64.9%53.4%2028NANA60.3%53.2%2029NANA64.5%54.0%Annualized Growth4.0%5.7%1.2%2.2%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)\"Nvidia's margins can't possibly be maintained for long.\"Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can't even dream of.Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia's value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world's most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?The world's wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.And here's why that matters. Most companies don't need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn't as important as energy and cost.In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.Today's AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.YchartsNVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&D, and that is expected to continue growing.FactSetNVDA's R&D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company's historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn't sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.The more you buy the more you save.\" - Jensen Huang's sales pitch at keynotesGlassdoorSince 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.Blind76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.If you're a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.BloombergJensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream StockMetricNvidiaS&PNasdaqTotal Income$4,097.79$925.85$447.31Inflation-Adjusted Income$2,145.44$484.74$234.19Starting Yield0.00%1.18%0%Yield On Cost89.2%8.2%5.96%Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost46.68%4.28%3.12%Annual Income Growth22.5%8.5%30.6%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA didn't start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable PriceNo one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.The major concern many investors have is whether it's overvalued.FactSetNVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year's estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value ProfileTime Frame (Years)Average PEAverage P/FCFAnnual EPS GrowthAnnual FCF GrowthEPS PEGFCF PEG2035.7134.9434.2532.781.041.071934.8234.9434.3436.191.010.971834.533.2328.4426.081.211.271735.0233.9526.1426.931.341.261635.9934.4425.5522.061.411.561537.2736.0342.9139.790.870.911437.6536.0345.9833.660.821.071335.9137.3140.0533.820.901.101235.8338.4939.6834.380.901.121137.8441.1444.5740.550.851.011040.1444.1852.9646.150.760.96942.547.6953.1346.540.801.02845.4852.3162.2447.70.731.10748.5456.2753.6252.080.911.08649.7558.0549.745.331.001.28548.8559.2150.8953.850.961.10451.5367.5472.9858.240.711.16353.2782.8173.1379.720.731.04253.7187.2570.9183.850.761.04152.9892.71288.38614.240.180.15Average42.364550.42659.492572.6970.891.06Median38.9942.6647.8442.940.881.082030 FCF Consensus$154,421.06Current Market Cap$2,420,000.002029 Fair ValueAnnualized Return PotentialFree Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)$6,587,602.59Increase In Value (Median)172.21%$350.0922.25%Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)$7,786,836.57Increase In Value (Average)221.77%$412.8626.35%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That's not opinion. It's objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it's objectively not overvalued.The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn't Right For EveryoneOptions markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.ReutersBut that doesn't mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.NVDA's epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.It's easy to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA's earnings decline?YearsEPS GrowthPeak Decline2009-82%-78.9%2013 to 2014-22%-22.1%2020-13%-30.0%2023-25%-62.8%Average-36%-48.4%Median-24%-46.4%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)In the last 15 years, NVDA's median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.The market's median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA's current AI lead.New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.ASICs: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google's TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.TPUs: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google's machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.FPGAs: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.Portfolio VisualizerHere are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.And here's how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.10% Worst Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn20026-48.66%-13.12%-7.38%20087-38.89%0.64%-0.90%20027-35.56%-8.62%-7.88%20019-35.14%-20.88%-8.16%200011-34.83%-22.91%-7.47%200212-32.81%-12.09%-5.66%20224-32.03%-13.60%-8.78%19999-31.56%0.84%-2.24%20081-27.72%-11.89%-6.05%20195-25.07%-8.23%-6.38%201810-24.98%-8.60%-6.91%20047-24.67%-7.55%-3.22%20086-24.21%-9.61%-8.35%200010-24.10%-7.94%-0.47%20022-22.41%-12.28%-1.79%201811-22.40%-0.26%1.85%20106-22.30%-5.98%-5.17%20044-22.27%-2.99%-1.89%20024-21.53%-12.01%-5.82%20065-21.36%-7.24%-3.01%20001-21.04%-1.85%-4.94%20116-20.46%-2.02%-1.69%200910-20.43%-3.05%-1.92%20229-19.55%-10.54%-9.24%20048-19.20%-2.49%0.24%200012-19.10%-7.32%-0.52%20226-18.80%-8.91%-8.25%20113-18.53%-0.45%0.01%201812-18.31%-8.65%-8.79%200810-18.21%-15.47%-16.52%20053-18.04%-1.75%-1.83%Average-25.30%-7.96%-4.81%Median-22.40%-8.23%-5.17%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It's fallen by almost 50% in a single month.It's fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&P and Nasdaq were flat!If you can't tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.10% Best Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn2003582.62%8.52%5.48%2000272.68%19.02%-1.57%2001157.56%10.15%4.45%19991156.50%11.79%1.74%20011056.02%16.98%1.30%2011155.32%2.83%2.33%2001345.28%-17.49%-5.60%20021143.95%12.91%6.17%20091243.03%5.20%1.91%1999839.75%5.47%-0.52%20021039.02%18.48%8.23%2017538.54%3.90%1.41%2023536.34%7.88%0.46%19991235.56%24.32%5.63%2023133.69%10.64%6.29%2000832.29%13.63%6.60%20041132.20%6.02%4.45%2000332.01%2.58%9.69%2016531.83%4.37%1.70%2006831.48%4.77%2.18%20161129.76%0.44%3.68%2024228.58%5.28%5.22%2001428.31%17.88%7.04%2000528.05%-12.27%-1.57%20211127.81%2.00%-0.80%20011127.48%16.96%7.80%2018127.03%8.76%5.64%2024526.89%6.15%5.06%2005226.48%-0.48%2.09%2020826.00%10.94%6.98%20221125.41%5.54%5.56%Average38.63%7.52%3.52%Median32.29%6.15%4.45%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA's 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.DKThis is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don't care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA's extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.Portfolio VisualizerNVDA's 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&P's 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq's 15% worst monthly returns.NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&P's upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETFFor example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&P's upside with 22% of its downside.25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&P upside, with a 26% downside.That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My PortfolioSince April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I'm not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control VolatilityPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.S&PS&P LT Risk Management ScoreRating0% to 9%Very Poor10% to 19%Poor20% to 29%Suboptimal30% to 59%Acceptable60% to 69%Good70% to 79%Very Good80+%ExceptionalNVDA64.80%Global Percentile88.37%Click to enlarge(Source: S&P)Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The YearLet me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.NVDA's year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year's final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we've seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.It's critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.But leave the speculation to the traders. Don't attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear MarketsThe report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.I'm targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.That's because TSM's ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.That means NVDA's potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.I'll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy's performance, based on my portfolio's algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family's needs at any time.I'm not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I'm using myself as an example.I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.But the bottom line? With high confidence, I'm riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:My NVDA Earnings Expectations$30 to $50 billion buybackPossibly a doubling of the dividend.12.5% to 20% beat and raise.5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318209739735112,"gmtCreate":1718726465624,"gmtModify":1718726526721,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 是不是已经市值第一了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 是不是已经市值第一了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 是不是已经市值第一了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318209739735112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313622485352704,"gmtCreate":1717606380541,"gmtModify":1717606631595,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 总算破1200了，不墨迹了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 总算破1200了，不墨迹了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 总算破1200了，不墨迹了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313622485352704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311784967524624,"gmtCreate":1717145361108,"gmtModify":1717145696842,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文","listText":"好文","text":"好文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311784967524624","repostId":"2439932446","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2439932446","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1717134919,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2439932446?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-31 13:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"从拼多多到英伟达，这个时代最赚钱的生意都是同类","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2439932446","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。向生产端要钱的生意，在眼下显现出了巨大的优势。新能源汽车大打价格战，却不影响宁德时代的净利润大涨4成。许多企业用财报证明，在这个时代，搞钱者远比消费者更愿意掏钱。这种规律是跨行业的：从拼多多到朋友圈广告、从蜜雪冰城再到英伟达，这些当下最赚钱的公司，都在从搞钱的人那里搞钱。归根结底，这是个消费比生产稀缺的时代。","content":"<html><body><blockquote>\n<p>文 | 略大参考 杨知潮</p>\n<p>编辑 | 原野</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。</p>\n<p>搞钱这事有周期。有的时候钱好搞，有的时候钱难搞。但人的欲望没有周期，无论好搞难搞，人都得搞钱。所以电商平台疯狂降价，哪怕怎么也换不来GMV增长的往日荣光。新兴行业也没好多少，从新能源汽车到AI大模型，价格战一波接着一波，看不到尽头，身在其中的多数都苦不堪言，但还得继续降。</p>\n<p>但搞钱本身，就是搞钱的机会。</p>\n<p>就像高考的千军万马是考生的噩梦，但对高考补习班来说，那却是巨大的财富。</p>\n<p>向生产端要钱的生意，在眼下显现出了巨大的优势。在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>却可以轻松地从KIMI们那里赚上几百亿美元。新能源汽车大打价格战，却不影响<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>的净利润大涨4成。</p>\n<p>许多企业用财报证明，在这个时代，搞钱者远比消费者更愿意掏钱。这种规律是跨行业的：从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>到朋友圈广告、从蜜雪冰城再到英伟达，这些当下最赚钱的公司，都在从搞钱的人那里搞钱。</p>\n<p>归根结底，这是个消费比生产稀缺的时代。</p>\n<h4>01 真正的金矿，是淘金者</h4>\n<p>一个广为流传的故事：在18-19世纪美国淘金热的时代，大批怀揣搞钱梦想的淘金者奔向西部。虽然金矿代表着无限的财富机遇，却并不是每个人都能淘到金子。不过，有人发现了另一种“金矿”：那些淘金者。于是他们在沿途开设了客栈，为淘金者提供水、食物和工具，很多人由此致富。</p>\n<p>淘金和卖水的生意之间没有优劣。但在当下这个并非遍地黄金的时代，赚淘金者的钱，似乎比淘金本身更具确定性。</p>\n<p>互联网大厂的财报拼凑起来，就在说明这件事。</p>\n<p>首先明确，互联网大厂虽然都叫互联网公司，但扮演的角色却并不相同——有的是淘金者，直接面向消费者提供商品和服务，最典型的是自营电商。有的则是扮演的就是向淘金者卖水的角色，最典型的收取佣金的电商平台，他们的“金矿”，是平台上的商家。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/20240531/171713312691262500.jpg\"/></p>\n<p>图：数据来源于各公司财报，略大参考制图</p>\n<p>那个增长到资本市场都已经看不懂了的拼多多，就是卖水者中的翘楚。这家平台刚刚发布了收入同比增长131%的财报，其中从交易服务费中获取的收入同比增长了327%——淘金者的充足，让“卖水”的拼多多获得了远比GMV更高的收入增速。</p>\n<p>过剩的搞钱人支撑着拼多多高昂的增速，也支撑着在它在价格战时代实现利润率逆势增长。卖货有风险，但收取佣金却是稳赚的。这种类似赛博房东的“收租”收入，在疫情后显示出了极强的毛利率优势和稳定性优势。</p>\n<p>以往喜欢“亲力亲为”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，也没有抵挡住当包租公的诱惑。</p>\n<p>最近几个季度，腾讯的毛利率坐电梯般上升，尽管收入增长近乎停滞，但不妨碍它越来越能赚钱。这当然不是因为腾讯游戏道具的成本变低了，而是微信强大的服务费收取能力。</p>\n<p>来自商家的金融服务费（微信支付）、来自小程序开发者的服务费、来自小游戏的服务费，这几种服务费，和互联网广告一起，帮助本来就很高的腾讯毛利率，连续四个季度增长20%，一季度已经达到了53%。</p>\n<p>对现阶段腾讯来说，游戏玩家不充钱没关系，源源不断的游戏开发者会充钱。——前者充钱事关快乐，后者则事关饭碗，是刚需。</p>\n<p>企业对“饭碗”的执着，还盘活了此前消沉许久的一门业务：广告。</p>\n<p>广告客户是希望赚到钱的品牌，也算是我们前面提到过的“搞钱者”。多项数据指向，广告业务是疫情以后互联网最强劲的增长动力，甚至可以没有之一。</p>\n<p>只看一季度的广告收入：B站同比增长31%、快手同比增长27.4%、腾讯同比增长26%。几乎所有能数得着的流量互联网公司，在最近几个季度都出现了广告业务大涨。</p>\n<p>而反过来，不去躺赚广告费和服务费，而是自己亲自去找消费者赚钱的很多互联网企业，数据就没那么漂亮了。</p>\n<p>各大平台的直播收入普遍下滑、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>等以卖会员为主的平台全都陷入增长停滞或者收入下滑，就连以往最赚钱的游戏业务，也失去了增长的魔力。刚刚发布财报的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">挚文集团</a>，在一季度收入同比下滑9.2%，探探付费人数同比下滑50万。</p>\n<p>这种趋势似乎与行业无关，它的实质是，消费者没有以往那样愿意掏钱。</p>\n<p>于是，搞钱者就需要更加努力了。</p>\n<h4>02 你不赚钱，与我何干</h4>\n<p>从搞钱者那里搞钱，并不是互联网平台经济的专属。</p>\n<p>那个门店超过36000家的蜜雪冰城，比瑞幸更加谙熟什么叫“平台经济”。靠着30%左右的毛利率，这家品牌甚至比毛利率高达60%的奈雪更加赚钱。</p>\n<p>原因当然是加盟。</p>\n<p>蜜雪冰城几乎没有自己的店。招股书披露，蜜雪冰城自营店占比不到0.2%。绝大部分收入，都来自那些渴望开店赚钱的商家。招股书还披露，蜜雪冰城为中国现制饮品行业中极少数实现加盟商的饮品食材、包材及设备100%从品牌方采购的品牌——想卖奶茶，就得在我这买原料。</p>\n<p>蜜雪冰城的模式让奈雪羡慕不已。2023年7月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>启动加盟模式，81家加盟店顺利开业。2024年2月，奈雪的茶降低加盟门槛，把资金要求从近百万下调至58万，奈雪方面透露已有1000多人缴纳10万元意向金。</p>\n<p>这种“你开店我赚钱”的逻辑，其实也是黄仁勋千亿身价的秘密。</p>\n<p>不久前，国内大模型开启了一轮猛烈的价格战，打折比例动辄8成9成，甚至有厂商直接免费开放。大模型厂商的目的很简单：客户使用率太低了，提升一下。</p>\n<p>GPT风靡至今一年半了，仍然很难说大模型有多赚钱。OpenAI仍未盈利。国内的KIMI探索用打赏变现，但这“仨瓜俩枣”显然难以覆盖庞大的算力成本和买量成本。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>在一季度财报会上公布了生成式AI对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云收入的贡献比例：6.9%，差不多3.2亿元，约占百度一季度总收入的1%。</p>\n<p>没人怀疑AI终将改变世界，但眼下，靠AI赚大钱还是个梦想。</p>\n<p>梦想不能当饭吃，但别人的梦想可以。</p>\n<p>对英伟达来说，别人的梦想就是它的变现驱动。2024年一季度，英伟达收入达到260亿美元，暴涨262.1%。其中，代表向大模型公司售卖算力的“数据中心业务”收入222.6亿美元，同比大涨427%。多数AI企业还在寻找自己的变现模式，但对英伟达来说，答案已经明确了。</p>\n<p>在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，类似KIMI的大模型厂商却要拿出几百上千亿美元，去购买整体毛利率接近8成的算力——别嫌贵，这大家还得抢着买。至于买完显卡以后，你的大模型能否赚钱，这和英伟达无关。</p>\n<p>对宁德时代来说，车企是否赚钱同样不是他们需要考虑的事。</p>\n<p>在狂打价格战的2023年，强如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>也出现了毛利率下滑。但车企的压力没有传递给宁德时代，2023年，宁德时代的净利润同比增长43.58%，充分阐述了什么叫“死道友，不死贫道”。</p>\n<p>即便是在纯粹的C端生意新能源汽车行业里，能够赚钱的网约车车型也显得更加好卖。在传统车企面临新能源转型的难题时，广汽埃安却迅速完成崛起。它旗下的埃安S和埃安Y每个月能够为这家车企提供超过2万台的销量，成为销量上的一线新能源车企。而它的主要客户之一，正是跑网约车的司机们。</p>\n<p>——赚钱越难，赚钱的路子就越抢手。</p>\n<h4>03 永远有人想赚钱</h4>\n<p>关于搞钱，网上有这样一种说法：如果一个行业里，大量的人都在兜售赚钱的机会，比如程序员培训班、招餐饮加盟商、付费预测彩票中奖号码，那么意味着这个事根本不好赚钱。</p>\n<p>背后的逻辑很简单：如果谁真有一个绝佳的赚钱机会，那么最好的选择是自己赚，干嘛要卖给其他人？</p>\n<p>其实在前景好的时候，大家的确倾向于自己亲自干。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>几年前不断扩大自营比例、内容平台纷纷自己做电商，而不是卖电商广告、疫情后的美团力推自有品牌——因为他们认为那是好生意，不想让给其他人。</p>\n<p>但当这些业务遭遇压力，转变出现了。阿里巴巴收缩各种新零售业务、小红书也不断在做电商和卖电商广告之间摇摆。</p>\n<p>这种转变在新能源汽车行业的体现更加明显。</p>\n<p>2021年，新能源汽车市场进入爆炸式增长，新能源已经被普遍承认是未来趋势。这一年前后，滴滴、百度、小米、OPPO等科技企业都自己宣布，或者被传出要造车。</p>\n<p>但造车不是造插线板，它需要数以百亿的资金投入，至少几年的时间准备。而在它们准备这几年里，车市已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。产能危机变成了库存危机，价格战频频，考验着每家车企的现金流。</p>\n<p>看着那低到吓人的汽车价格，很多企业放弃了。百度参与的集度汽车变成了极越汽车，“度”字的消失暗示着主导权的变化；滴滴汽车“变”成了小鹏的一个子品牌；OPPO从汽车改造车机，力图打造汽车生态；华为再三重申不造车，只帮车企造好车。</p>\n<p>用互联网黑话来说，这叫“造车不如造生态”。但如果能把车造好、卖好，谁又愿意只卖车机？无非是行业风险太高，买车人的钱不好赚，那就赚卖车人的钱。</p>\n<p>当然，按理说汽车如果不好卖，车机同样也不好卖；卖奶茶如果不赚钱，加盟权同样也没人买；开网约车不赚钱，卖网约车的也不赚钱。</p>\n<p>但事实证明，商业有周期，人对搞钱的欲望却是没有周期的。人永远都想要钱，哪怕是在钱不好搞的时候。</p>\n<p>2023年以来，多地发出网约车预警，平均收入每况愈下，但依然无法阻挡网约车数量日益增长，埃安S、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>秦的销量也跟着水涨船高。</p>\n<p>2023年618，各大电商平台默契地集体隐藏了618的GMV。这一年，多数电商平台都在承压。但2023财年，淘宝新增了512万个新卖家，财报发布的那个季度，天猫新商家增速提升了75%。</p>\n<p>想搞钱的人实在太多，多到溢出国外。疫情以后，以TEMU、SHEIN、速卖通、TikTok为代表的跨境电商四小龙迅速崛起，而他们爆发的时间，与国内电商大促GMV“小时”的时间点近乎一致，都发生在2023年。</p>\n<p>对大公司来说，矛盾同样存在。2023年，国内至少发布了238个大模型，尽管从大公司财报里还看不到任何一个大模型带给企业的盈利。</p>\n<p>这些竞争虽然激烈，但无论是个体商户，还是市值千亿的上市公司，只要还能看到赚钱的机会，就还得继续坚持。</p>\n<p>而对那些兜售赚钱机会的企业来说，过于操心淘金者们能否赚到钱是没必要的，他们有底气说:你不干，有的是人干。</p>\n</body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从拼多多到英伟达，这个时代最赚钱的生意都是同类</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从拼多多到英伟达，这个时代最赚钱的生意都是同类\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-31 13:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/232935><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文 | 略大参考 杨知潮\n编辑 | 原野\n\n人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。\n搞钱这事有周期。有的时候钱好搞，有的时候钱难搞。但人的欲望没有周期，无论好搞难搞，人都得搞钱。所以电商平台疯狂降价，哪怕怎么也换不来GMV增长的往日荣光。新兴行业也没好多少，从新能源汽车到AI大模型，价格战一波接着一波，看不到尽头，身在其中的多数都苦不堪言，但还得继续降。\n但搞钱本身，就是搞钱的机会。\n就像高考的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/232935\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","PDD":"拼多多","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific 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原野\n\n人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。\n搞钱这事有周期。有的时候钱好搞，有的时候钱难搞。但人的欲望没有周期，无论好搞难搞，人都得搞钱。所以电商平台疯狂降价，哪怕怎么也换不来GMV增长的往日荣光。新兴行业也没好多少，从新能源汽车到AI大模型，价格战一波接着一波，看不到尽头，身在其中的多数都苦不堪言，但还得继续降。\n但搞钱本身，就是搞钱的机会。\n就像高考的千军万马是考生的噩梦，但对高考补习班来说，那却是巨大的财富。\n向生产端要钱的生意，在眼下显现出了巨大的优势。在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，英伟达却可以轻松地从KIMI们那里赚上几百亿美元。新能源汽车大打价格战，却不影响宁德时代的净利润大涨4成。\n许多企业用财报证明，在这个时代，搞钱者远比消费者更愿意掏钱。这种规律是跨行业的：从拼多多到朋友圈广告、从蜜雪冰城再到英伟达，这些当下最赚钱的公司，都在从搞钱的人那里搞钱。\n归根结底，这是个消费比生产稀缺的时代。\n01 真正的金矿，是淘金者\n一个广为流传的故事：在18-19世纪美国淘金热的时代，大批怀揣搞钱梦想的淘金者奔向西部。虽然金矿代表着无限的财富机遇，却并不是每个人都能淘到金子。不过，有人发现了另一种“金矿”：那些淘金者。于是他们在沿途开设了客栈，为淘金者提供水、食物和工具，很多人由此致富。\n淘金和卖水的生意之间没有优劣。但在当下这个并非遍地黄金的时代，赚淘金者的钱，似乎比淘金本身更具确定性。\n互联网大厂的财报拼凑起来，就在说明这件事。\n首先明确，互联网大厂虽然都叫互联网公司，但扮演的角色却并不相同——有的是淘金者，直接面向消费者提供商品和服务，最典型的是自营电商。有的则是扮演的就是向淘金者卖水的角色，最典型的收取佣金的电商平台，他们的“金矿”，是平台上的商家。\n\n图：数据来源于各公司财报，略大参考制图\n那个增长到资本市场都已经看不懂了的拼多多，就是卖水者中的翘楚。这家平台刚刚发布了收入同比增长131%的财报，其中从交易服务费中获取的收入同比增长了327%——淘金者的充足，让“卖水”的拼多多获得了远比GMV更高的收入增速。\n过剩的搞钱人支撑着拼多多高昂的增速，也支撑着在它在价格战时代实现利润率逆势增长。卖货有风险，但收取佣金却是稳赚的。这种类似赛博房东的“收租”收入，在疫情后显示出了极强的毛利率优势和稳定性优势。\n以往喜欢“亲力亲为”的腾讯，也没有抵挡住当包租公的诱惑。\n最近几个季度，腾讯的毛利率坐电梯般上升，尽管收入增长近乎停滞，但不妨碍它越来越能赚钱。这当然不是因为腾讯游戏道具的成本变低了，而是微信强大的服务费收取能力。\n来自商家的金融服务费（微信支付）、来自小程序开发者的服务费、来自小游戏的服务费，这几种服务费，和互联网广告一起，帮助本来就很高的腾讯毛利率，连续四个季度增长20%，一季度已经达到了53%。\n对现阶段腾讯来说，游戏玩家不充钱没关系，源源不断的游戏开发者会充钱。——前者充钱事关快乐，后者则事关饭碗，是刚需。\n企业对“饭碗”的执着，还盘活了此前消沉许久的一门业务：广告。\n广告客户是希望赚到钱的品牌，也算是我们前面提到过的“搞钱者”。多项数据指向，广告业务是疫情以后互联网最强劲的增长动力，甚至可以没有之一。\n只看一季度的广告收入：B站同比增长31%、快手同比增长27.4%、腾讯同比增长26%。几乎所有能数得着的流量互联网公司，在最近几个季度都出现了广告业务大涨。\n而反过来，不去躺赚广告费和服务费，而是自己亲自去找消费者赚钱的很多互联网企业，数据就没那么漂亮了。\n各大平台的直播收入普遍下滑、爱奇艺、腾讯音乐等以卖会员为主的平台全都陷入增长停滞或者收入下滑，就连以往最赚钱的游戏业务，也失去了增长的魔力。刚刚发布财报的挚文集团，在一季度收入同比下滑9.2%，探探付费人数同比下滑50万。\n这种趋势似乎与行业无关，它的实质是，消费者没有以往那样愿意掏钱。\n于是，搞钱者就需要更加努力了。\n02 你不赚钱，与我何干\n从搞钱者那里搞钱，并不是互联网平台经济的专属。\n那个门店超过36000家的蜜雪冰城，比瑞幸更加谙熟什么叫“平台经济”。靠着30%左右的毛利率，这家品牌甚至比毛利率高达60%的奈雪更加赚钱。\n原因当然是加盟。\n蜜雪冰城几乎没有自己的店。招股书披露，蜜雪冰城自营店占比不到0.2%。绝大部分收入，都来自那些渴望开店赚钱的商家。招股书还披露，蜜雪冰城为中国现制饮品行业中极少数实现加盟商的饮品食材、包材及设备100%从品牌方采购的品牌——想卖奶茶，就得在我这买原料。\n蜜雪冰城的模式让奈雪羡慕不已。2023年7月，奈雪的茶启动加盟模式，81家加盟店顺利开业。2024年2月，奈雪的茶降低加盟门槛，把资金要求从近百万下调至58万，奈雪方面透露已有1000多人缴纳10万元意向金。\n这种“你开店我赚钱”的逻辑，其实也是黄仁勋千亿身价的秘密。\n不久前，国内大模型开启了一轮猛烈的价格战，打折比例动辄8成9成，甚至有厂商直接免费开放。大模型厂商的目的很简单：客户使用率太低了，提升一下。\nGPT风靡至今一年半了，仍然很难说大模型有多赚钱。OpenAI仍未盈利。国内的KIMI探索用打赏变现，但这“仨瓜俩枣”显然难以覆盖庞大的算力成本和买量成本。百度在一季度财报会上公布了生成式AI对智能云收入的贡献比例：6.9%，差不多3.2亿元，约占百度一季度总收入的1%。\n没人怀疑AI终将改变世界，但眼下，靠AI赚大钱还是个梦想。\n梦想不能当饭吃，但别人的梦想可以。\n对英伟达来说，别人的梦想就是它的变现驱动。2024年一季度，英伟达收入达到260亿美元，暴涨262.1%。其中，代表向大模型公司售卖算力的“数据中心业务”收入222.6亿美元，同比大涨427%。多数AI企业还在寻找自己的变现模式，但对英伟达来说，答案已经明确了。\n在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，类似KIMI的大模型厂商却要拿出几百上千亿美元，去购买整体毛利率接近8成的算力——别嫌贵，这大家还得抢着买。至于买完显卡以后，你的大模型能否赚钱，这和英伟达无关。\n对宁德时代来说，车企是否赚钱同样不是他们需要考虑的事。\n在狂打价格战的2023年，强如特斯拉也出现了毛利率下滑。但车企的压力没有传递给宁德时代，2023年，宁德时代的净利润同比增长43.58%，充分阐述了什么叫“死道友，不死贫道”。\n即便是在纯粹的C端生意新能源汽车行业里，能够赚钱的网约车车型也显得更加好卖。在传统车企面临新能源转型的难题时，广汽埃安却迅速完成崛起。它旗下的埃安S和埃安Y每个月能够为这家车企提供超过2万台的销量，成为销量上的一线新能源车企。而它的主要客户之一，正是跑网约车的司机们。\n——赚钱越难，赚钱的路子就越抢手。\n03 永远有人想赚钱\n关于搞钱，网上有这样一种说法：如果一个行业里，大量的人都在兜售赚钱的机会，比如程序员培训班、招餐饮加盟商、付费预测彩票中奖号码，那么意味着这个事根本不好赚钱。\n背后的逻辑很简单：如果谁真有一个绝佳的赚钱机会，那么最好的选择是自己赚，干嘛要卖给其他人？\n其实在前景好的时候，大家的确倾向于自己亲自干。比如阿里巴巴几年前不断扩大自营比例、内容平台纷纷自己做电商，而不是卖电商广告、疫情后的美团力推自有品牌——因为他们认为那是好生意，不想让给其他人。\n但当这些业务遭遇压力，转变出现了。阿里巴巴收缩各种新零售业务、小红书也不断在做电商和卖电商广告之间摇摆。\n这种转变在新能源汽车行业的体现更加明显。\n2021年，新能源汽车市场进入爆炸式增长，新能源已经被普遍承认是未来趋势。这一年前后，滴滴、百度、小米、OPPO等科技企业都自己宣布，或者被传出要造车。\n但造车不是造插线板，它需要数以百亿的资金投入，至少几年的时间准备。而在它们准备这几年里，车市已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。产能危机变成了库存危机，价格战频频，考验着每家车企的现金流。\n看着那低到吓人的汽车价格，很多企业放弃了。百度参与的集度汽车变成了极越汽车，“度”字的消失暗示着主导权的变化；滴滴汽车“变”成了小鹏的一个子品牌；OPPO从汽车改造车机，力图打造汽车生态；华为再三重申不造车，只帮车企造好车。\n用互联网黑话来说，这叫“造车不如造生态”。但如果能把车造好、卖好，谁又愿意只卖车机？无非是行业风险太高，买车人的钱不好赚，那就赚卖车人的钱。\n当然，按理说汽车如果不好卖，车机同样也不好卖；卖奶茶如果不赚钱，加盟权同样也没人买；开网约车不赚钱，卖网约车的也不赚钱。\n但事实证明，商业有周期，人对搞钱的欲望却是没有周期的。人永远都想要钱，哪怕是在钱不好搞的时候。\n2023年以来，多地发出网约车预警，平均收入每况愈下，但依然无法阻挡网约车数量日益增长，埃安S、比亚迪秦的销量也跟着水涨船高。\n2023年618，各大电商平台默契地集体隐藏了618的GMV。这一年，多数电商平台都在承压。但2023财年，淘宝新增了512万个新卖家，财报发布的那个季度，天猫新商家增速提升了75%。\n想搞钱的人实在太多，多到溢出国外。疫情以后，以TEMU、SHEIN、速卖通、TikTok为代表的跨境电商四小龙迅速崛起，而他们爆发的时间，与国内电商大促GMV“小时”的时间点近乎一致，都发生在2023年。\n对大公司来说，矛盾同样存在。2023年，国内至少发布了238个大模型，尽管从大公司财报里还看不到任何一个大模型带给企业的盈利。\n这些竞争虽然激烈，但无论是个体商户，还是市值千亿的上市公司，只要还能看到赚钱的机会，就还得继续坚持。\n而对那些兜售赚钱机会的企业来说，过于操心淘金者们能否赚到钱是没必要的，他们有底气说:你不干，有的是人干。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301141439058168,"gmtCreate":1714526945039,"gmtModify":1714528173305,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哇","listText":"哇","text":"哇","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27d355bedc5e7269a8a4f333724c202"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301141439058168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":318209739735112,"gmtCreate":1718726465624,"gmtModify":1718726526721,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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快要掉水下了，真牛逼","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 快要掉水下了，真牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378397887045824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313622485352704,"gmtCreate":1717606380541,"gmtModify":1717606631595,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 总算破1200了，不墨迹了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 总算破1200了，不墨迹了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 总算破1200了，不墨迹了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313622485352704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381160695480672,"gmtCreate":1734100906154,"gmtModify":1734100907310,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 真就磨了一个月没动了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 真就磨了一个月没动了","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 真就磨了一个月没动了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381160695480672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351156274315448,"gmtCreate":1726754034961,"gmtModify":1726754036072,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 日常冲高回落","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 日常冲高回落","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 日常冲高回落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351156274315448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342596422603136,"gmtCreate":1724646873901,"gmtModify":1724646875814,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"空帖子？","listText":"空帖子？","text":"空帖子？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342596422603136","repostId":"2461374296","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2461374296","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724643065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2461374296?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-26 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461374296","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.</p></li><li><p>NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.</p></li><li><p>Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.</p></li><li><p>Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.</p></li><li><p>NVDA&#39;s current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.</p></li><li><p>The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&amp;P.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d22057eb1489b30e626df04aa8235a7f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>Deagreez</p><p>For Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it&#39;s been a volatile few weeks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3eac5181a580805cb6ad1dfa56e7b91b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8f31eb5cb3f9d4f5c49917c86f95e83f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>From its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.</p><p>That&#39;s a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.</p><p>And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.</p><p><strong>I Was &#34;Greedy When Others Were Fearful&#34; During The Recent Market Pullback</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deea900a18efe8b61dced45203751fe1\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>Morningstar</p><p>I use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA&#39;s normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&amp;P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.</p><p>I didn&#39;t nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.</p><p>Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA&#39;s fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA&#39;s future was brighter than ever.</p><p>So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it&#39;s still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.</p><h2 id=\"id_1928948722\">Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 Earnings</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fe73882f9d45c88ba5afd9f998655c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.</p><p>As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a54a6e424a2db68eb5127a62b6f7072d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3704d62e8b8a9249625bf0af81fd6bb3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>NVDA&#39;s track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.</p><p>Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it&#39;s increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.</p><p>Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.</p><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong>: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a &#34;buy&#34; recommendation, highlighting Nvidia&#39;s competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.</p><p><strong>Jefferies</strong>: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.</p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities</strong>: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia&#39;s ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia&#39;s earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.</p><p>Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.</p><p>All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.</p><p>That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.</p><h2 id=\"id_811311096\">2025 Outlook Is Soaring</h2><blockquote><p>In terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia&#39;s GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.&#34; - Morgan Stanley</p></blockquote><p>KeyBank has similar estimates of &#34;at least $210 billion&#34; in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.</p><p>Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before Earnings</p></li></ul><p>As I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA&#39;s potential sales in 2025, per TSMC&#39;s supply ramp, is <strong>up to $265 billion.</strong></p><p>KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn&#39;t going away; it will be a lower-cost option.</p><p>$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM&#39;s ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.</p><p>Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.</p></li><li><p>To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d4454022ee542f0385b00cca8bf09969\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"558\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.</p><p>NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.</p><p>What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2abcfe5aaa2da5574850f6338013d37f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>Assuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and <strong>$114 billion in free cash flow next year.</strong></p><p>The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Fair Value Profile</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Aug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)</p></li><li><p>Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)</p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)</em></strong></p></li><li><p>Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): <strong>$250 to $275 (106% upside)</strong></p></li><li><p><strong><em>Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upside</em></strong></p></li></ul><p>The current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.</p><p>Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.</p><p>In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).</p><p>In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).</p><h2 id=\"id_4170491251\">Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting Stronger</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/adcc5d7ee4ea1a7b8865ec031674389b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>The median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.</p><p>Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.</p><p>Here&#39;s what that looks like in the medium term.</p><p><strong>Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Sales</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating Income)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Income</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$58,039</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$25,051</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$33,240</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$34,748</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$27,603</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$115,536</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$57,624</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$74,897</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$75,564</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$61,025</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$163,532</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$78,290</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$106,824</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$107,248</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$85,132</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$194,395</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$94,500</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$131,407</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$126,724</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$105,058</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$227,147</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$114,526</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$147,514</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$121,372</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$263,891</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$159,219</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$140,294</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$271,796</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$175,244</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$146,898</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Annualized Growth 2024-2029</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>29.3%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.2%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>58.1%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>31.0%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.1%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Cumulative 2024-2029</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$1,236,297</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$344,940</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$313,128</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$791,513</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$659,779</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.</p><p>And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Nvidia Margin Consensus Forecast</strong></p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBITDA Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EBIT (Operating) Margin</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Net Margin</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.6%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.8%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2025</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2026</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>65.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2027</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.4%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2028</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>60.3%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.2%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2029</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>NA</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>64.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>54.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annualized Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>4.0%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>5.7%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.2%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2.2%</strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>&#34;Nvidia&#39;s margins can&#39;t possibly be maintained for long.&#34;</p><p>Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can&#39;t even dream of.</p><p>Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia&#39;s value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.</p><p>Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.</p><p>Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world&#39;s most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?</p><p>The world&#39;s wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.</p><p>In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.</p><p>Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.</p><p>In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.</p><p>And here&#39;s why that matters. Most companies don&#39;t need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn&#39;t as important as energy and cost.</p><p>In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.</p><p>For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.</p><p>Today&#39;s AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).</p><p>For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.</p><p>Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3556749b3d37a2bcac03cba1bb640cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>NVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&amp;D, and that is expected to continue growing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a3e393c461d7f4f64d80a6a11be1dc6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s R&amp;D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company&#39;s historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.</p><p>In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn&#39;t sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.</p><blockquote><p>The more you buy the more you save.&#34; - Jensen Huang&#39;s sales pitch at keynotes</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b16784118d501e9a61ea72a0991bc002\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>Glassdoor</p><p>Since 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17cd68b32e5c86dc14a191362ceb6166\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"817\"/></p><p>Blind</p><p>76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.</p><p>If you&#39;re a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?</p><p>Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.</p><p><strong>Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9df89c5aa021d7e8f207a4aba132ad77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Jensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.</p><p>If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.</p><h2 id=\"id_170916229\">Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream Stock</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Metric</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Total Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$4,097.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$925.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$447.31</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Inflation-Adjusted Income</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,145.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$484.74</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$234.19</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Starting Yield</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.18%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Yield On Cost</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>89.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.2%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.96%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>46.68%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.28%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.12%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annual Income Growth</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.5%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30.6%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA didn&#39;t start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&amp;P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.</p><p>Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.</p><h2 id=\"id_3538347583\">Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable Price</h2><p>No one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.</p><p>The major concern many investors have is whether it&#39;s overvalued.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f7e88dfddc67d0ddaaafa7c5ddaa526e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p>FactSet</p><p>NVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.</p><p>Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year&#39;s estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.</p><p>So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.</p><h2 id=\"id_2254745276\">Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value Profile</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Time Frame (Years)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average PE</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Average P/FCF</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Annual FCF Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS PEG</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>FCF PEG</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.78</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.94</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.19</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.97</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.23</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.27</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.02</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.95</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.93</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.26</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.99</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.44</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>22.06</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.56</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.79</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.87</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.65</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.03</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.66</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.07</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.49</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.68</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>34.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.90</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.12</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>37.84</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>41.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.57</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.55</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.01</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>40.14</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>44.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.15</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>42.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.69</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>46.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.80</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.02</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.48</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.31</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>62.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>47.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.62</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.08</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.08</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.75</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.05</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>49.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.33</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.28</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>48.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>59.21</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>50.89</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.96</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.10</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>51.53</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>67.54</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>58.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.16</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.27</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.81</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>73.13</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>79.72</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.73</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>53.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>87.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70.91</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>83.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.76</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.04</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>52.98</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>92.71</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>288.38</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>614.24</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.18</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.15</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.3645</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>50.426</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>59.4925</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>72.697</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.89</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.06</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.99</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.66</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>47.84</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>42.94</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>0.88</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>1.08</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>2030 FCF Consensus</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><em>$154,421.06</em></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Current Market Cap</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$2,420,000.00</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2029 Fair Value</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Annualized Return Potential</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$6,587,602.59</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Median)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>172.21%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$350.09</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>22.25%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$7,786,836.57</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Increase In Value (Average)</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>221.77%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>$412.86</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>26.35%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: FactSet)</em></p><p>A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That&#39;s not opinion. It&#39;s objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it&#39;s objectively not overvalued.</p><p>The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.</p><p>That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.</p><p>That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.</p><p>Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.</p><h2 id=\"id_1005571806\">Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn&#39;t Right For Everyone</h2><p>Options markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ea024618bf310da9de53b8fa37c04d71\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\"/></p><p>Reuters</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.</p><p>And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.</p><p>It&#39;s easy to be &#34;greedy when others are fearful&#34; when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA&#39;s earnings decline?</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Years</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>EPS Growth</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Peak Decline</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-82%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-78.9%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2013 to 2014</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.1%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-30.0%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-62.8%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-36%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-48.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-24%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-46.4%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)</em></p><p>In the last 15 years, NVDA&#39;s median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.</p><p>The market&#39;s median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.</p><p>If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA&#39;s current AI lead.</p><p>New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.</p><p><strong>ASICs</strong>: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google&#39;s TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.</p><p><strong>TPUs</strong>: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google&#39;s machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.</p><p><strong>FPGAs</strong>: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.</p><p>These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.</p><p>NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99b6b6beb6b28bea17e0c91b56174fd0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>Here are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.</p><p>And here&#39;s how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.</p><h2 id=\"id_2906987552\">10% Worst Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-48.66%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.12%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2008</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>7</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-38.89%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.64%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.90%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.88%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-35.14%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.16%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-34.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.09%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.66%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-32.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-13.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.78%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-31.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.84%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-27.72%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-11.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.05%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2019</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-25.07%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.23%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.38%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.60%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-6.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.67%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.61%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.35%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-24.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.47%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2018</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>11</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-22.40%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.26%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>1.85%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2010</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.30%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-22.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.99%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.89%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.53%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.82%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.36%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.24%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.01%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-21.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.85%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-4.94%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.46%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-20.43%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-3.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.92%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.55%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-10.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-9.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-2.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.24%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-19.10%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-7.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.80%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.25%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2011</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>3</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-18.53%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>-0.45%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>0.01%</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.65%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-8.79%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2008</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.21%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-15.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-16.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-18.04%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.83%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-25.30%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-7.96%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-4.81%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-22.40%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-8.23%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>-5.17%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It&#39;s fallen by almost 50% in a single month.</p><p>It&#39;s fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&amp;P and Nasdaq were flat!</p><p>If you can&#39;t tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.</p><h2 id=\"id_3661157528\">10% Best Monthly Returns</h2><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/><col/><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Nasdaq</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P 500</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Year</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Month</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Return</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2003</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>82.62%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.52%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.48%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>72.68%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>19.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>57.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.50%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11.79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.74%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>56.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.98%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.30%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2011</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>55.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.33%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>45.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-17.49%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-5.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.95%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12.91%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.17%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2009</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>43.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.91%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.75%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.47%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.52%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2002</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>39.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>18.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.23%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2017</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>38.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.90%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.41%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>36.34%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.46%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1999</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>12</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>35.56%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>24.32%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.63%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2023</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>33.69%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.64%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.29%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>13.63%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.60%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2004</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.20%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.02%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.45%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>32.01%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>9.69%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.83%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.37%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.70%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2006</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>31.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4.77%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.18%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2016</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>29.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.44%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.68%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.58%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.28%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.22%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>4</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.31%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>17.88%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.04%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2000</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>28.05%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.27%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-1.57%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2021</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.81%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2001</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>16.96%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>7.80%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2018</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>27.03%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8.76%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.64%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2024</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.89%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.15%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.06%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2005</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.48%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.09%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2020</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.00%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10.94%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6.98%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2022</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>11</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>25.41%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.54%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.56%</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Average</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>38.63%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>7.52%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>3.52%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Median</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>32.29%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>6.15%</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>4.45%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</em></p><p>NVDA&#39;s 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.</p><p>Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?</p><p>The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.</p><p>Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/75602ba57743d090b88e1c3c02805c91\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"592\"/></p><p>DK</p><p>This is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don&#39;t care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.</p><p>By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA&#39;s extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7435f5638696097962ff9f887dc9f790\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer</p><p>NVDA&#39;s 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&amp;P&#39;s 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq&#39;s 15% worst monthly returns.</p><p>NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.</p><p>It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b926948bee47b2ae775fc6fde67d425c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\"/></p><p>Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETF</p></li></ul><p>For example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&amp;P&#39;s upside with 22% of its downside.</p><p>25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&amp;P upside, with a 26% downside.</p><p>That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&amp;P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My Portfolio</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f04095f0a7838c320c83cfa5691a2483\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\"/></p><p>Since April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)</p><p>This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I&#39;m not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.</p><h4 id=\"id_2011515392\">Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control Volatility</h4><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/51dc5f93b968e43a6a4ae830454d15e9\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"743\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&amp;D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/85e9f47a0f07ff31c481fabf5b91da78\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"648\"/></p><p>S&amp;P</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><colgroup><col/><col/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>S&amp;P LT Risk Management Score</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Rating</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0% to 9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>10% to 19%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Poor</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>20% to 29%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Suboptimal</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>30% to 59%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Acceptable</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>60% to 69%</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Good</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>70% to 79%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Very Good</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>80+%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>Exceptional</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>NVDA</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>64.80%</em></strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>Global Percentile</em></strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong><em>88.37%</em></strong></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click to enlarge</p><p><em>(Source: S&amp;P)</em></p><h2 id=\"id_1302024128\">Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The Year</h2><p>Let me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year&#39;s final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.</p><p>NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.</p><p>Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we&#39;ve seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.</p><p>NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.</p><p>But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.</p><p>It&#39;s critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.</p><p>The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.</p><p>But leave the speculation to the traders. Don&#39;t attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.</p><p>Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear Markets</p></li><li><p>The report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.</p></li></ul><p>I&#39;m targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.</p><p>That&#39;s because TSM&#39;s ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.</p><p>That means NVDA&#39;s potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.</p><p>Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.</p><p>Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.</p><p>I&#39;ll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy&#39;s performance, based on my portfolio&#39;s algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family&#39;s needs at any time.</p><p>I&#39;m not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I&#39;m using myself as an example.</p><p>I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.</p><p>But the bottom line? With high confidence, I&#39;m riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:</p><p><strong>My NVDA Earnings Expectations</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>$30 to $50 billion buyback</p></li><li><p>Possibly a doubling of the dividend.</p></li><li><p>12.5% to 20% beat and raise.</p></li><li><p>5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).</p></li></ul></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons I Bought More Nvidia Ahead Of Earnings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 11:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716287-3-reasons-i-bought-more-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-and-you-should-too","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2461374296","content_text":"NVDA was down as much as 35% in the recent market pullback. I was able to be greedy when others were fearful, acquiring 650 more shares.NVDA is likely to beat and raise this earnings report by 15% to 20%, unveil a $30 to $50 billion buyback, and potentially raise the dividend again.Market options are pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing after earnings, and 5% to 15% is likely, given channel checks and 2024 fundamentals.Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect over $225 billion in sales in 2025, and NVDA has the potential to beat FCF estimates by 50% next year.NVDA's current estimates justify a 16% rally by year-end, 39% by the end of 2025, and potentially as much as 140% by the end of next year.The current consensus total return potential is 23% to 28% annually through 2029, about 300% total return potential, roughly 4X more than the S&P.DeagreezFor Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) investors, it's been a volatile few weeks.YchartsYchartsFrom its record high of $140, NVDA fell to an intraday low of $90 on Aug. 5, during the Yen Carry Trade unwind.That's a 35% peak decline in a matter of weeks.And then, from those lows, that panic-selling bottom NVDA soared 45% to $130 before pulling back a bit on Tuesday.I Was \"Greedy When Others Were Fearful\" During The Recent Market PullbackMorningstarI use limit orders to keep the target allocation for each stock steady during corrections. Thanks to NVDA's normal volatility, which fell 2.35X as much as the S&P in this pullback (and 3.5X peak intraday decline), I could buy 650 shares of NVDA going into earnings.I didn't nail the bottom, just over $90 on Aug. 5, but I got close.Was I worried as these limits filled? Not at all because I was tracking NVDA's fundamentals each day and could see that, despite the market panic triggered by hedge fund margin calls and algo trades, NVDA's future was brighter than ever.So let me share the three reasons I bought so much NVDA in recent weeks, going into earnings. More importantly, these three reasons explain why it's still a potentially good idea for long-term dividend growth investors to buy NVDA even after its strong 40% recovery from its recent lows.Reason 1: Big Beat And Raise Likely During Aug. 28 EarningsSeeking AlphaNVDA reports on Wed, Aug. 28, after the close.As usual, earnings estimates have steadily risen by the week, with 37 upward revisions this quarter.Seeking AlphaSeeking AlphaNVDA's track record for beating earnings is perfect over the last two quarters since the company is supply constrained.According to Bloomberg, the average sales beat and raise over the last six quarters is 12.5%.Taiwan Semi (TSM) says it's increasing wafer production by 150% in 2024 and 100% in 2025, but thinks that NVDA will remain supply constrained through the end of 2025.Regarding its No. 1 supplier, TSM announced 45% sales growth courtesy of insatiable AI chip demand.Goldman Sachs: Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that Nvidia will surpass Street consensus for revenue and earnings per share, driven by robust Data Center revenues and operational leverage. They maintain a \"buy\" recommendation, highlighting Nvidia's competitive edge in AI and accelerated computing.Jefferies: Analysts at Jefferies expect Nvidia to continue delivering earnings beats, although the magnitude of these surprises may be smaller than in previous quarters. They anticipate a strong earnings report for July, with guidance into October expected to exceed expectations by about $1 billion.Wedbush Securities: Wedbush maintains confidence in Nvidia's ability to report a strong quarter, citing robust AI spending as a critical driver. They expect Nvidia's earnings to be bolstered by increased investment from significant customers in AI infrastructure.Morningstar and Morgan Stanley estimate 15% to 17% sales beats and raises, and KeyBank is similarly bullish, especially for 2025.All of the hyperscalers, the tech giants driving 50% of sales for NVDA right now, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN), have announced they are increasing AI capex this year and next year.That likely means that NVDA could sell 100% of production at full prices and record margins.2025 Outlook Is SoaringIn terms of figures, Team Green is expected to ship 60,000 to 70,000 units of Nvidia's GB200 AI servers, and given that one server is reported to cost around $2 million to $3 million per unit, this means that Team Green will bag in around a whopping $210 billion from just Blackwell servers along, that too in a year.\" - Morgan StanleyKeyBank has similar estimates of \"at least $210 billion\" in Blackwell sales alone in 2025.Now that NVDA has announced a delay in Blackwell shipments (which were supposed to start shipping in Q4), 2024 Blackwell shipments may be pushed into 2025.3 Reasons I Bought Nvidia Before EarningsAs I explained in my last pre-earnings update, NVDA's potential sales in 2025, per TSMC's supply ramp, is up to $265 billion.KeyBank and Morgan Stanley now estimate $210-plus billion in Blackwell sales alone. Remember that Hopper isn't going away; it will be a lower-cost option.$265 billion is the maximum theoretical revenue that NVDA could achieve if TSM's ramp is successful and they can sell 100% of capacity at full price.Before the Blackwell delay announcement, Morgan and KeyBank estimated $210 billion in Blackwell sales, not including other chips, auxiliary hardware, or NIMS (software).Management is guiding for 110% annual software sales through 2030.To $60 billion in annual sales by 2030.FactSetThe current consensus is $164 billion in 2025 sales, up from $160 billion a few weeks ago and $150 billion at the start of the year.NVDA can theoretically sell up to $265 billion next year, and Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect around $230 billion.What does that mean for potential free cash flow, beating expectations?FactSetAssuming stable 49% free cash flow margins (analysts expect this), potentially representing $65 to $70 billion in sales beat and $114 billion in free cash flow next year.The current consensus is $78 billion, representing a 46% free cash flow beat next year. $114 billion in FCF would be 13% higher than the $101 billion in 2026 FCF analysts currently expect.Nvidia Fair Value ProfileAug. 21: $132.83 (4.4% upside)Year-end 2024 (current consensus): $148.12 (16% upside)Year-end 2025 (current consensus): (39% upside)Mid 2025 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario): $250 to $275 (106% upside)Year-end 2026: $307.24 (Morgan Stanley/KeyBank scenario:) 141% upsideThe current analyst base case is that NVDA will have almost 40% upside by the end of next year. If NVDA achieves the maximum growth numbers that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect, there is as much as 141% upside return potential, which is justified by fundamentals.Goldman Sachs thinks AI will start to affect GDP growth in 2027 and corporate profits potentially in 2026.In other words, 2024 and 2025 are about supply constraints, with hyper-scalers seemingly willing to buy 100% of NVDA capacity (as well as some AMD and INTC AI chips).In 2026 and 2027, the years of Rubin and Rubin Ultra chip platforms, NVDA expects hyperscalers to be a minor part of its business as other companies and governments (sovereign AI) continue buying the best chips (for cost efficiency).Reason 2: Long-Term Outlook Keeps Getting StrongerFactSetThe median growth consensus for NVDA is 44.1%, up from 40% a few weeks ago and 33% three months ago.Long-term EPS growth estimates range from 10% to 54%, with 44.1% being the median.Here's what that looks like in the medium term.Nvidia Medium-Term Growth Consensus ForecastYearSalesFree Cash FlowEBITDAEBIT (Operating Income)Net Income2023$58,039$25,051$33,240$34,748$27,6032024$115,536$57,624$74,897$75,564$61,0252025$163,532$78,290$106,824$107,248$85,1322026$194,395$94,500$131,407$126,724$105,0582027$227,147$114,526NA$147,514$121,3722028$263,891NANA$159,219$140,2942029$271,796NANA$175,244$146,898Annualized Growth 2024-202929.3%46.2%58.1%31.0%32.1%Cumulative 2024-2029$1,236,297$344,940$313,128$791,513$659,779Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)Free cash flow is growing at almost 50% per year.And remember, this is the current consensus. If NVDA achieves $114 billion in FCF next year, as Morgan Stanley thinks is possible, then NVDA will have achieved 2027 results in 2025.NVDA is currently pricing in -2 or -3 years of potential growth if it achieves what Morgan Stanley and KeyBank do next year.Nvidia Margin Consensus ForecastYearFCF MarginEBITDA MarginEBIT (Operating) MarginNet Margin202343.2%57.3%59.9%47.6%202449.9%64.8%65.4%52.8%202547.9%65.3%65.6%52.1%202648.6%67.6%65.2%54.0%202750.4%NA64.9%53.4%2028NANA60.3%53.2%2029NANA64.5%54.0%Annualized Growth4.0%5.7%1.2%2.2%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)\"Nvidia's margins can't possibly be maintained for long.\"Not according to the median consensus of 62 analysts who cover it for a living and have access to channel checks and data that YouTube prognosticators can't even dream of.Why is that plausible? Because Nvidia's value proposition to customers is long-term overall operating costs.Microsoft is one of the largest GPUs, AI, and cloud computing infrastructure buyers.Do you think MSFT minds paying $35K to $40K for the world's most advanced AI chips if it means that long-term operating costs per token are 50% to 75% lower than what cheaper but less advanced chips can achieve?The world's wealthiest companies can easily afford to take the long-term view, and Nvidia is guiding for at least 50% reductions in cost/token computing costs each year after 2025.In other words, NVDA is already the low-cost leader in long-term AI operating costs. For example, Blackwell is 4X better at training and 30X at inference (operating AI models) than Hopper.Hopper replaced the Ampere generation of AI chips and was 9X better at training and 30X better at inference than Ampere.In other words, between the A100 chips and B200 chips, NVDA has improved training capacity by 36X and inference by 900X.And here's why that matters. Most companies don't need to do 900X faster inferencing. At some point, speed isn't as important as energy and cost.In the next decade, Jensen Huang says Nvidia can help accelerate computing power in AI by one million-fold.For a company like MSFT or OpenAI, it might be optimal to try to have the best LMM, such as Project Stargate (a 10 million GPU model in 2028 costing over $100 billion), 1 million times faster for the same cost and energy.Today's AI inference speed might be fine for others but at 1 million times lower cost (per token).For some countries, the goal might be to achieve 1 million times lower energy (and cost) with the same speed as today.Or, for most companies, 1000X faster AI computing for 1000X lower cost (and 1000X lower energy usage) might be the ideal sweet spot.YchartsNVDA spends $10 billion annually on R&D, and that is expected to continue growing.FactSetNVDA's R&D spending is expected to triple to $30 billion in 2029. The company's historical median 20% to 25% free cash flow return on invested capital means its growth spending is highly efficient.In the last year, the free cash flow return on invested capital reached 87%. That isn't sustainable, but for now, the more Nvidia spends, the faster it grows.The more you buy the more you save.\" - Jensen Huang's sales pitch at keynotesGlassdoorSince 2022, NVDA has been rated among the top five companies to work for, and its workers consider Jensen Huang the fourth-best CEO.Blind76% of NVDA employees are millionaires.If you're a world-class AI computer engineer, do you want to work for Intel? Or a thriving industry leader whose CEO is hailed as a genius?Happy, productive employees who are getting richer than they ever dreamed of are another reason to ride strong with Jensen Huang.Jensen Huang Owns 3.5% Of NVDA And Is The 12th Richest Person On Earth.BloombergJensen Huang has been CEO for 30 years (he co-founded the company). He says he plans to remain CEO for 30 to 40 more years.If he can keep his finger on the pulse of future tech as well as he has for the last 30 years, Huang would be a potential Buffett of tech.Nvidia Is A Dividend Growth Dream StockMetricNvidiaS&PNasdaqTotal Income$4,097.79$925.85$447.31Inflation-Adjusted Income$2,145.44$484.74$234.19Starting Yield0.00%1.18%0%Yield On Cost89.2%8.2%5.96%Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost46.68%4.28%3.12%Annual Income Growth22.5%8.5%30.6%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA didn't start paying a dividend until 2012. And the dividend was low and frozen for years. Yet, NVDA has delivered 4X as much inflation-adjusted income as the S&P and almost 10X more than the Nasdaq.Income investors who have owned NVDA since the beginning now see an inflation-adjusted 47% yield on cost. Analysts say every $1000 invested at the IPO now pays $470 yearly in dividends, likely to grow 40% to 50% annually.Reason 3: A Wonderful Company At A Reasonable PriceNo one denies that Nvidia is an amazingly innovative or fast-growing company.The major concern many investors have is whether it's overvalued.FactSetNVDA is trading at 38.87X forward earnings.Its free cash flow yield (EV/FCF) is 40.3X next year's estimates, representing a forward cash-adjusted PEG ratio of 0.91. Its current PEG ratio, which is measured the traditional way, is 0.95.So Peter Lynch would say that as long as NVDA keeps growing as expected, it will grow at a reasonable price.Nvidia Objective Market Determined Fair Value ProfileTime Frame (Years)Average PEAverage P/FCFAnnual EPS GrowthAnnual FCF GrowthEPS PEGFCF PEG2035.7134.9434.2532.781.041.071934.8234.9434.3436.191.010.971834.533.2328.4426.081.211.271735.0233.9526.1426.931.341.261635.9934.4425.5522.061.411.561537.2736.0342.9139.790.870.911437.6536.0345.9833.660.821.071335.9137.3140.0533.820.901.101235.8338.4939.6834.380.901.121137.8441.1444.5740.550.851.011040.1444.1852.9646.150.760.96942.547.6953.1346.540.801.02845.4852.3162.2447.70.731.10748.5456.2753.6252.080.911.08649.7558.0549.745.331.001.28548.8559.2150.8953.850.961.10451.5367.5472.9858.240.711.16353.2782.8173.1379.720.731.04253.7187.2570.9183.850.761.04152.9892.71288.38614.240.180.15Average42.364550.42659.492572.6970.891.06Median38.9942.6647.8442.940.881.082030 FCF Consensus$154,421.06Current Market Cap$2,420,000.002029 Fair ValueAnnualized Return PotentialFree Cash Flow Fair Value (Median)$6,587,602.59Increase In Value (Median)172.21%$350.0922.25%Free Cash Flow Fair Value (Average)$7,786,836.57Increase In Value (Average)221.77%$412.8626.35%Click to enlarge(Source: FactSet)A PEG of 1 is what NVDA has historically traded at for the last 20 years. That's not opinion. It's objective market fact. So, if NVDA trades at a PEG of 1, it's objectively not overvalued.The first 2030 sales estimates are $307 billion, or 17.8% annualized from 2024 to 2030.That means a historical fair value of $6.6 trillion to $7.8 trillion or 172% to 222% consensus fundamentally justified fair value by the end of 2029.That would translate into 22% to 27% annualized returns for the next 5.5 years.Remember, these are the current consensus estimates, which rise with each quarterly beat and raise.Risks To Consider: Why Nvidia Isn't Right For EveryoneOptions markets are currently pricing in an 8.7% single-day swing post earnings.ReutersBut that doesn't mean NVDA will go up or down 9%. I expect a 5% to 15% pop, but up to a 25% upward move might occur if NVDA pulls off a big enough beat and raise.NVDA's epic gains have been justified by record fundamental growth.And the bear markets this year, which have been 25% and 35%, respectively, have not been justified by fundamentals.It's easy to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" when all the fundamentals are strong. But what happens when NVDA's earnings decline?YearsEPS GrowthPeak Decline2009-82%-78.9%2013 to 2014-22%-22.1%2020-13%-30.0%2023-25%-62.8%Average-36%-48.4%Median-24%-46.4%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer, FAST Graphs, FactSet)In the last 15 years, NVDA's median EPS decline has resulted in a 24% earnings recession.The market's median reaction is a nearly 50% sell-off.If smaller language models prove as effective as LMMs or specialized chips better than GPUs, it could disrupt NVDA's current AI lead.New types of chips are indeed being developed to outperform traditional GPUs specifically for AI tasks. These include specialized AI chips, such as Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), designed to handle AI workloads more efficiently than general-purpose GPUs.ASICs: These are custom-designed chips optimized for specific applications, including AI. They offer higher efficiency and performance for particular tasks compared to general-purpose GPUs. For example, Google's TPU is an ASIC designed to accelerate machine learning workloads.TPUs: Developed by Google, TPUs are specifically designed to accelerate machine learning tasks. They are optimized for TensorFlow, Google's machine learning framework, and provide significant performance improvements for AI applications.FPGAs: Field-Programmable Gate Arrays are another type of AI chip that can be configured for specific tasks. They offer flexibility and can be optimized for various AI workloads, although they may not always match the raw performance of ASICs or TPUs.These specialized AI chips are designed to handle the massive parallel processing required for AI tasks more efficiently than GPUs. They achieve this by optimizing for lower precision arithmetic, which reduces the number of transistors needed and, thus, the energy consumption while maintaining the necessary performance for AI algorithms. This makes them particularly suitable for applications like large language models, edge AI, and autonomous vehicles, where efficiency and speed are critical.NVDA must maintain its lead in AI tech. If it loses the ability to offer the lowest long-term cost option, then the bullish thesis will be thrown out the window.Portfolio VisualizerHere are the largest ten bear markets for NVDA.And here's how volatile this hyper-volatility, hyper-growth blue chip is.10% Worst Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn20026-48.66%-13.12%-7.38%20087-38.89%0.64%-0.90%20027-35.56%-8.62%-7.88%20019-35.14%-20.88%-8.16%200011-34.83%-22.91%-7.47%200212-32.81%-12.09%-5.66%20224-32.03%-13.60%-8.78%19999-31.56%0.84%-2.24%20081-27.72%-11.89%-6.05%20195-25.07%-8.23%-6.38%201810-24.98%-8.60%-6.91%20047-24.67%-7.55%-3.22%20086-24.21%-9.61%-8.35%200010-24.10%-7.94%-0.47%20022-22.41%-12.28%-1.79%201811-22.40%-0.26%1.85%20106-22.30%-5.98%-5.17%20044-22.27%-2.99%-1.89%20024-21.53%-12.01%-5.82%20065-21.36%-7.24%-3.01%20001-21.04%-1.85%-4.94%20116-20.46%-2.02%-1.69%200910-20.43%-3.05%-1.92%20229-19.55%-10.54%-9.24%20048-19.20%-2.49%0.24%200012-19.10%-7.32%-0.52%20226-18.80%-8.91%-8.25%20113-18.53%-0.45%0.01%201812-18.31%-8.65%-8.79%200810-18.21%-15.47%-16.52%20053-18.04%-1.75%-1.83%Average-25.30%-7.96%-4.81%Median-22.40%-8.23%-5.17%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)In the last 25 years, NVDA has had 24 20%-plus monthly declines. It's fallen by almost 50% in a single month.It's fallen as much as 40% in a month while the S&P and Nasdaq were flat!If you can't tolerate such volatility and harness it to buy more when sentiment is at its worst, you will miss out on gains like these.10% Best Monthly ReturnsNvidiaNasdaqS&P 500YearMonthReturnReturnReturn2003582.62%8.52%5.48%2000272.68%19.02%-1.57%2001157.56%10.15%4.45%19991156.50%11.79%1.74%20011056.02%16.98%1.30%2011155.32%2.83%2.33%2001345.28%-17.49%-5.60%20021143.95%12.91%6.17%20091243.03%5.20%1.91%1999839.75%5.47%-0.52%20021039.02%18.48%8.23%2017538.54%3.90%1.41%2023536.34%7.88%0.46%19991235.56%24.32%5.63%2023133.69%10.64%6.29%2000832.29%13.63%6.60%20041132.20%6.02%4.45%2000332.01%2.58%9.69%2016531.83%4.37%1.70%2006831.48%4.77%2.18%20161129.76%0.44%3.68%2024228.58%5.28%5.22%2001428.31%17.88%7.04%2000528.05%-12.27%-1.57%20211127.81%2.00%-0.80%20011127.48%16.96%7.80%2018127.03%8.76%5.64%2024526.89%6.15%5.06%2005226.48%-0.48%2.09%2020826.00%10.94%6.98%20221125.41%5.54%5.56%Average38.63%7.52%3.52%Median32.29%6.15%4.45%Click to enlarge(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)NVDA's 10% best months are a median 32% gain, with returns as strong as 82% in a single month.Can you see the benefits of rebalancing in real time during bear markets using managed futures and limit orders?The 40% monthly crashes are what create the 82% monthly rallies. If your optimal NVDA allocation is 5% and falls to 40%, you can buy with limits and keep it at 5% the entire time. And so when that face-ripping rally comes around, when NVDA overshoots to the bottom, you end up with maximum benefit.Then, at annual rebalancing time, you can harvest those excess returns, including bubble excess valuations, to buy high-yield blue chips to compound income even faster.DKThis is why I am so bullish on NVDA. Not just for the growth, I don't care about growth. I care about total returns because income tracks total returns due to annual rebalancing.By harvesting the yield generated by NVDA's extreme volatility, long-term NVDA investors can maximize long-term inflation-adjusted income.Portfolio VisualizerNVDA's 5% worst months are 30% monthly declines, 3X worse than the S&P's 10% worst 5% of months, and 2X worse than the Nasdaq's 15% worst monthly returns.NVDA has historically captured 329% of the S&P's upside in exchange for 183% of its downside when stocks fall.It delivered safe 26% withdrawal rates, though no investor would ever be 100% NVDA as a retirement plan.Managed Futures = KMLM (since Jan 2021) (Portfolio Visualizer)By combining NVDA with managed futures, you can adjust its volatility to what you can emotionally and financially stand.KMLM: 5 Reasons You Might Want To Buy This 8.2% Yielding ETFFor example, a 50% NVDA and 50% KMLM stock bucket captured 189% of the S&P's upside with 22% of its downside.25% NVDA and 75% KMLM captured the market, 91% of the S&P upside, with a 26% downside.That means since Jan 2021, a 75% KMLM and 25% NVDA combo went up 9% when the S&P was up 10% and up 2.6% when the market was down 10%.CTA: 5 Reasons I Added This 7.6% Yielding ETF To My PortfolioSince April 2022 (Portfolio Visualizer)This is the key to emotional and financial risk management. I'm not trying to time whether NVDA will soar or crash. No one can predict that.Trust Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing, To Control VolatilityPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA has risks, including regulatory/antitrust risks, R&D efficiency risks, and over 1,000 other risks.S&PS&P LT Risk Management ScoreRating0% to 9%Very Poor10% to 19%Poor20% to 29%Suboptimal30% to 59%Acceptable60% to 69%Good70% to 79%Very Good80+%ExceptionalNVDA64.80%Global Percentile88.37%Click to enlarge(Source: S&P)Bottom Line: Nvidia Is A Reasonable Buy Going Into Earnings And One Of The Top Return Potentials For The Rest Of The YearLet me be clear. I never make forecasts. I look at consensus fundamentals on quality companies and then calculate historically justified fundamental total return potentials.NVDA's year-end fair value is $147, and if it beats and raises as expected in this year's final two earnings, that would likely rise to $175 to $195.NVDA has been tracking its fair value for about 18 months, ever since the AI explosion sent its fundamentals soaring at record rates.Does that mean NVDA will be $200 by year-end? As we've seen many times this year, market sentiment is fickle.NVDA has soared as much as 50% in one month, crashed 25% weekly, and soared 45% in the last few days.But it keeps returning to historical fair value, 40.14X earnings, each time, as it has for the last decade.It's critical to size your financial and emotional risk with NVDA properly. This stock is the quintessential high-volatility hyper-growth blue chip.The downside volatility for the unprepared investor can be soul crushing. The volatility to the upside, created by the extreme crashes, is mind blowing.But leave the speculation to the traders. Don't attempt to time NVDA. If you like the company, including its visionary CEO, who says he wants to keep innovating, buy at a reasonable price ($132.83 fair value or lower) and hold on.Once my annual asset allocation is set, I manage my NVDA risk by rebalancing NVDA on a fixed schedule, using trailing stops.What You Need To Know About Protecting Your Portfolio From Recession And Bear MarketsThe report includes a section on trailing stops, which I use when selling stocks during annual rebalancing.I'm targeting an 11% max overweight on NVDA this year because this is the lowest-risk year for NVDA.That's because TSM's ramp is running through 2025 (possibly into 2026), and TSM management has confirmed that NVDA will likely be capacity-constrained by the end of 2025.That means NVDA's potential for up to $265 billion in revenue capacity (if there is a demand) could support the $225 to $235 billion that Morgan Stanley and KeyBank expect.Given that the market is 12-month forward-looking, the risk of an air gap in demand (sudden decrease in orders and collapse of margins) is very low for all of 2024.Investors will start looking to 2026 in 2025, which means more significant risks of a sustained 40% to 60% bear market should an air gap develop.I'll adjust the target allocation to 7.5% to 9.1% next year, depending on the economy's performance, based on my portfolio's algo-driven risk management rules, which are optimized for my family's needs at any time.I'm not telling you what allocation to use for NVDA (if any). I'm using myself as an example.I share my limit buys, reasoning, and the best available data from all 62 analysts.But the bottom line? With high confidence, I'm riding into NVDA earnings with a record number of shares. Jensen fans will be impressed with the following:My NVDA Earnings Expectations$30 to $50 billion buybackPossibly a doubling of the dividend.12.5% to 20% beat and raise.5% to 15% pop (options market pricing in 8.7% one-day swing).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311784967524624,"gmtCreate":1717145361108,"gmtModify":1717145696842,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文","listText":"好文","text":"好文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311784967524624","repostId":"2439932446","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2439932446","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1717134919,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2439932446?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-31 13:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"从拼多多到英伟达，这个时代最赚钱的生意都是同类","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2439932446","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。向生产端要钱的生意，在眼下显现出了巨大的优势。新能源汽车大打价格战，却不影响宁德时代的净利润大涨4成。许多企业用财报证明，在这个时代，搞钱者远比消费者更愿意掏钱。这种规律是跨行业的：从拼多多到朋友圈广告、从蜜雪冰城再到英伟达，这些当下最赚钱的公司，都在从搞钱的人那里搞钱。归根结底，这是个消费比生产稀缺的时代。","content":"<html><body><blockquote>\n<p>文 | 略大参考 杨知潮</p>\n<p>编辑 | 原野</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。</p>\n<p>搞钱这事有周期。有的时候钱好搞，有的时候钱难搞。但人的欲望没有周期，无论好搞难搞，人都得搞钱。所以电商平台疯狂降价，哪怕怎么也换不来GMV增长的往日荣光。新兴行业也没好多少，从新能源汽车到AI大模型，价格战一波接着一波，看不到尽头，身在其中的多数都苦不堪言，但还得继续降。</p>\n<p>但搞钱本身，就是搞钱的机会。</p>\n<p>就像高考的千军万马是考生的噩梦，但对高考补习班来说，那却是巨大的财富。</p>\n<p>向生产端要钱的生意，在眼下显现出了巨大的优势。在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>却可以轻松地从KIMI们那里赚上几百亿美元。新能源汽车大打价格战，却不影响<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>的净利润大涨4成。</p>\n<p>许多企业用财报证明，在这个时代，搞钱者远比消费者更愿意掏钱。这种规律是跨行业的：从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>到朋友圈广告、从蜜雪冰城再到英伟达，这些当下最赚钱的公司，都在从搞钱的人那里搞钱。</p>\n<p>归根结底，这是个消费比生产稀缺的时代。</p>\n<h4>01 真正的金矿，是淘金者</h4>\n<p>一个广为流传的故事：在18-19世纪美国淘金热的时代，大批怀揣搞钱梦想的淘金者奔向西部。虽然金矿代表着无限的财富机遇，却并不是每个人都能淘到金子。不过，有人发现了另一种“金矿”：那些淘金者。于是他们在沿途开设了客栈，为淘金者提供水、食物和工具，很多人由此致富。</p>\n<p>淘金和卖水的生意之间没有优劣。但在当下这个并非遍地黄金的时代，赚淘金者的钱，似乎比淘金本身更具确定性。</p>\n<p>互联网大厂的财报拼凑起来，就在说明这件事。</p>\n<p>首先明确，互联网大厂虽然都叫互联网公司，但扮演的角色却并不相同——有的是淘金者，直接面向消费者提供商品和服务，最典型的是自营电商。有的则是扮演的就是向淘金者卖水的角色，最典型的收取佣金的电商平台，他们的“金矿”，是平台上的商家。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://img.jiemian.com/101/original/20240531/171713312691262500.jpg\"/></p>\n<p>图：数据来源于各公司财报，略大参考制图</p>\n<p>那个增长到资本市场都已经看不懂了的拼多多，就是卖水者中的翘楚。这家平台刚刚发布了收入同比增长131%的财报，其中从交易服务费中获取的收入同比增长了327%——淘金者的充足，让“卖水”的拼多多获得了远比GMV更高的收入增速。</p>\n<p>过剩的搞钱人支撑着拼多多高昂的增速，也支撑着在它在价格战时代实现利润率逆势增长。卖货有风险，但收取佣金却是稳赚的。这种类似赛博房东的“收租”收入，在疫情后显示出了极强的毛利率优势和稳定性优势。</p>\n<p>以往喜欢“亲力亲为”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>，也没有抵挡住当包租公的诱惑。</p>\n<p>最近几个季度，腾讯的毛利率坐电梯般上升，尽管收入增长近乎停滞，但不妨碍它越来越能赚钱。这当然不是因为腾讯游戏道具的成本变低了，而是微信强大的服务费收取能力。</p>\n<p>来自商家的金融服务费（微信支付）、来自小程序开发者的服务费、来自小游戏的服务费，这几种服务费，和互联网广告一起，帮助本来就很高的腾讯毛利率，连续四个季度增长20%，一季度已经达到了53%。</p>\n<p>对现阶段腾讯来说，游戏玩家不充钱没关系，源源不断的游戏开发者会充钱。——前者充钱事关快乐，后者则事关饭碗，是刚需。</p>\n<p>企业对“饭碗”的执着，还盘活了此前消沉许久的一门业务：广告。</p>\n<p>广告客户是希望赚到钱的品牌，也算是我们前面提到过的“搞钱者”。多项数据指向，广告业务是疫情以后互联网最强劲的增长动力，甚至可以没有之一。</p>\n<p>只看一季度的广告收入：B站同比增长31%、快手同比增长27.4%、腾讯同比增长26%。几乎所有能数得着的流量互联网公司，在最近几个季度都出现了广告业务大涨。</p>\n<p>而反过来，不去躺赚广告费和服务费，而是自己亲自去找消费者赚钱的很多互联网企业，数据就没那么漂亮了。</p>\n<p>各大平台的直播收入普遍下滑、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>等以卖会员为主的平台全都陷入增长停滞或者收入下滑，就连以往最赚钱的游戏业务，也失去了增长的魔力。刚刚发布财报的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">挚文集团</a>，在一季度收入同比下滑9.2%，探探付费人数同比下滑50万。</p>\n<p>这种趋势似乎与行业无关，它的实质是，消费者没有以往那样愿意掏钱。</p>\n<p>于是，搞钱者就需要更加努力了。</p>\n<h4>02 你不赚钱，与我何干</h4>\n<p>从搞钱者那里搞钱，并不是互联网平台经济的专属。</p>\n<p>那个门店超过36000家的蜜雪冰城，比瑞幸更加谙熟什么叫“平台经济”。靠着30%左右的毛利率，这家品牌甚至比毛利率高达60%的奈雪更加赚钱。</p>\n<p>原因当然是加盟。</p>\n<p>蜜雪冰城几乎没有自己的店。招股书披露，蜜雪冰城自营店占比不到0.2%。绝大部分收入，都来自那些渴望开店赚钱的商家。招股书还披露，蜜雪冰城为中国现制饮品行业中极少数实现加盟商的饮品食材、包材及设备100%从品牌方采购的品牌——想卖奶茶，就得在我这买原料。</p>\n<p>蜜雪冰城的模式让奈雪羡慕不已。2023年7月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>启动加盟模式，81家加盟店顺利开业。2024年2月，奈雪的茶降低加盟门槛，把资金要求从近百万下调至58万，奈雪方面透露已有1000多人缴纳10万元意向金。</p>\n<p>这种“你开店我赚钱”的逻辑，其实也是黄仁勋千亿身价的秘密。</p>\n<p>不久前，国内大模型开启了一轮猛烈的价格战，打折比例动辄8成9成，甚至有厂商直接免费开放。大模型厂商的目的很简单：客户使用率太低了，提升一下。</p>\n<p>GPT风靡至今一年半了，仍然很难说大模型有多赚钱。OpenAI仍未盈利。国内的KIMI探索用打赏变现，但这“仨瓜俩枣”显然难以覆盖庞大的算力成本和买量成本。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>在一季度财报会上公布了生成式AI对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云收入的贡献比例：6.9%，差不多3.2亿元，约占百度一季度总收入的1%。</p>\n<p>没人怀疑AI终将改变世界，但眼下，靠AI赚大钱还是个梦想。</p>\n<p>梦想不能当饭吃，但别人的梦想可以。</p>\n<p>对英伟达来说，别人的梦想就是它的变现驱动。2024年一季度，英伟达收入达到260亿美元，暴涨262.1%。其中，代表向大模型公司售卖算力的“数据中心业务”收入222.6亿美元，同比大涨427%。多数AI企业还在寻找自己的变现模式，但对英伟达来说，答案已经明确了。</p>\n<p>在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，类似KIMI的大模型厂商却要拿出几百上千亿美元，去购买整体毛利率接近8成的算力——别嫌贵，这大家还得抢着买。至于买完显卡以后，你的大模型能否赚钱，这和英伟达无关。</p>\n<p>对宁德时代来说，车企是否赚钱同样不是他们需要考虑的事。</p>\n<p>在狂打价格战的2023年，强如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>也出现了毛利率下滑。但车企的压力没有传递给宁德时代，2023年，宁德时代的净利润同比增长43.58%，充分阐述了什么叫“死道友，不死贫道”。</p>\n<p>即便是在纯粹的C端生意新能源汽车行业里，能够赚钱的网约车车型也显得更加好卖。在传统车企面临新能源转型的难题时，广汽埃安却迅速完成崛起。它旗下的埃安S和埃安Y每个月能够为这家车企提供超过2万台的销量，成为销量上的一线新能源车企。而它的主要客户之一，正是跑网约车的司机们。</p>\n<p>——赚钱越难，赚钱的路子就越抢手。</p>\n<h4>03 永远有人想赚钱</h4>\n<p>关于搞钱，网上有这样一种说法：如果一个行业里，大量的人都在兜售赚钱的机会，比如程序员培训班、招餐饮加盟商、付费预测彩票中奖号码，那么意味着这个事根本不好赚钱。</p>\n<p>背后的逻辑很简单：如果谁真有一个绝佳的赚钱机会，那么最好的选择是自己赚，干嘛要卖给其他人？</p>\n<p>其实在前景好的时候，大家的确倾向于自己亲自干。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>几年前不断扩大自营比例、内容平台纷纷自己做电商，而不是卖电商广告、疫情后的美团力推自有品牌——因为他们认为那是好生意，不想让给其他人。</p>\n<p>但当这些业务遭遇压力，转变出现了。阿里巴巴收缩各种新零售业务、小红书也不断在做电商和卖电商广告之间摇摆。</p>\n<p>这种转变在新能源汽车行业的体现更加明显。</p>\n<p>2021年，新能源汽车市场进入爆炸式增长，新能源已经被普遍承认是未来趋势。这一年前后，滴滴、百度、小米、OPPO等科技企业都自己宣布，或者被传出要造车。</p>\n<p>但造车不是造插线板，它需要数以百亿的资金投入，至少几年的时间准备。而在它们准备这几年里，车市已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。产能危机变成了库存危机，价格战频频，考验着每家车企的现金流。</p>\n<p>看着那低到吓人的汽车价格，很多企业放弃了。百度参与的集度汽车变成了极越汽车，“度”字的消失暗示着主导权的变化；滴滴汽车“变”成了小鹏的一个子品牌；OPPO从汽车改造车机，力图打造汽车生态；华为再三重申不造车，只帮车企造好车。</p>\n<p>用互联网黑话来说，这叫“造车不如造生态”。但如果能把车造好、卖好，谁又愿意只卖车机？无非是行业风险太高，买车人的钱不好赚，那就赚卖车人的钱。</p>\n<p>当然，按理说汽车如果不好卖，车机同样也不好卖；卖奶茶如果不赚钱，加盟权同样也没人买；开网约车不赚钱，卖网约车的也不赚钱。</p>\n<p>但事实证明，商业有周期，人对搞钱的欲望却是没有周期的。人永远都想要钱，哪怕是在钱不好搞的时候。</p>\n<p>2023年以来，多地发出网约车预警，平均收入每况愈下，但依然无法阻挡网约车数量日益增长，埃安S、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>秦的销量也跟着水涨船高。</p>\n<p>2023年618，各大电商平台默契地集体隐藏了618的GMV。这一年，多数电商平台都在承压。但2023财年，淘宝新增了512万个新卖家，财报发布的那个季度，天猫新商家增速提升了75%。</p>\n<p>想搞钱的人实在太多，多到溢出国外。疫情以后，以TEMU、SHEIN、速卖通、TikTok为代表的跨境电商四小龙迅速崛起，而他们爆发的时间，与国内电商大促GMV“小时”的时间点近乎一致，都发生在2023年。</p>\n<p>对大公司来说，矛盾同样存在。2023年，国内至少发布了238个大模型，尽管从大公司财报里还看不到任何一个大模型带给企业的盈利。</p>\n<p>这些竞争虽然激烈，但无论是个体商户，还是市值千亿的上市公司，只要还能看到赚钱的机会，就还得继续坚持。</p>\n<p>而对那些兜售赚钱机会的企业来说，过于操心淘金者们能否赚到钱是没必要的，他们有底气说:你不干，有的是人干。</p>\n</body></html>","source":"lanjinger_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从拼多多到英伟达，这个时代最赚钱的生意都是同类</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从拼多多到英伟达，这个时代最赚钱的生意都是同类\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-31 13:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.lanjinger.com/d/232935><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文 | 略大参考 杨知潮\n编辑 | 原野\n\n人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。\n搞钱这事有周期。有的时候钱好搞，有的时候钱难搞。但人的欲望没有周期，无论好搞难搞，人都得搞钱。所以电商平台疯狂降价，哪怕怎么也换不来GMV增长的往日荣光。新兴行业也没好多少，从新能源汽车到AI大模型，价格战一波接着一波，看不到尽头，身在其中的多数都苦不堪言，但还得继续降。\n但搞钱本身，就是搞钱的机会。\n就像高考的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/232935\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","PDD":"拼多多","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0516422366.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Focus Equities A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific 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SGD","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU0516423091.SGD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation A-ACC-SGD","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.lanjinger.com/d/232935","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2439932446","content_text":"文 | 略大参考 杨知潮\n编辑 | 原野\n\n人永远都喜欢钱，但钱不是永远喜欢人。\n搞钱这事有周期。有的时候钱好搞，有的时候钱难搞。但人的欲望没有周期，无论好搞难搞，人都得搞钱。所以电商平台疯狂降价，哪怕怎么也换不来GMV增长的往日荣光。新兴行业也没好多少，从新能源汽车到AI大模型，价格战一波接着一波，看不到尽头，身在其中的多数都苦不堪言，但还得继续降。\n但搞钱本身，就是搞钱的机会。\n就像高考的千军万马是考生的噩梦，但对高考补习班来说，那却是巨大的财富。\n向生产端要钱的生意，在眼下显现出了巨大的优势。在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，英伟达却可以轻松地从KIMI们那里赚上几百亿美元。新能源汽车大打价格战，却不影响宁德时代的净利润大涨4成。\n许多企业用财报证明，在这个时代，搞钱者远比消费者更愿意掏钱。这种规律是跨行业的：从拼多多到朋友圈广告、从蜜雪冰城再到英伟达，这些当下最赚钱的公司，都在从搞钱的人那里搞钱。\n归根结底，这是个消费比生产稀缺的时代。\n01 真正的金矿，是淘金者\n一个广为流传的故事：在18-19世纪美国淘金热的时代，大批怀揣搞钱梦想的淘金者奔向西部。虽然金矿代表着无限的财富机遇，却并不是每个人都能淘到金子。不过，有人发现了另一种“金矿”：那些淘金者。于是他们在沿途开设了客栈，为淘金者提供水、食物和工具，很多人由此致富。\n淘金和卖水的生意之间没有优劣。但在当下这个并非遍地黄金的时代，赚淘金者的钱，似乎比淘金本身更具确定性。\n互联网大厂的财报拼凑起来，就在说明这件事。\n首先明确，互联网大厂虽然都叫互联网公司，但扮演的角色却并不相同——有的是淘金者，直接面向消费者提供商品和服务，最典型的是自营电商。有的则是扮演的就是向淘金者卖水的角色，最典型的收取佣金的电商平台，他们的“金矿”，是平台上的商家。\n\n图：数据来源于各公司财报，略大参考制图\n那个增长到资本市场都已经看不懂了的拼多多，就是卖水者中的翘楚。这家平台刚刚发布了收入同比增长131%的财报，其中从交易服务费中获取的收入同比增长了327%——淘金者的充足，让“卖水”的拼多多获得了远比GMV更高的收入增速。\n过剩的搞钱人支撑着拼多多高昂的增速，也支撑着在它在价格战时代实现利润率逆势增长。卖货有风险，但收取佣金却是稳赚的。这种类似赛博房东的“收租”收入，在疫情后显示出了极强的毛利率优势和稳定性优势。\n以往喜欢“亲力亲为”的腾讯，也没有抵挡住当包租公的诱惑。\n最近几个季度，腾讯的毛利率坐电梯般上升，尽管收入增长近乎停滞，但不妨碍它越来越能赚钱。这当然不是因为腾讯游戏道具的成本变低了，而是微信强大的服务费收取能力。\n来自商家的金融服务费（微信支付）、来自小程序开发者的服务费、来自小游戏的服务费，这几种服务费，和互联网广告一起，帮助本来就很高的腾讯毛利率，连续四个季度增长20%，一季度已经达到了53%。\n对现阶段腾讯来说，游戏玩家不充钱没关系，源源不断的游戏开发者会充钱。——前者充钱事关快乐，后者则事关饭碗，是刚需。\n企业对“饭碗”的执着，还盘活了此前消沉许久的一门业务：广告。\n广告客户是希望赚到钱的品牌，也算是我们前面提到过的“搞钱者”。多项数据指向，广告业务是疫情以后互联网最强劲的增长动力，甚至可以没有之一。\n只看一季度的广告收入：B站同比增长31%、快手同比增长27.4%、腾讯同比增长26%。几乎所有能数得着的流量互联网公司，在最近几个季度都出现了广告业务大涨。\n而反过来，不去躺赚广告费和服务费，而是自己亲自去找消费者赚钱的很多互联网企业，数据就没那么漂亮了。\n各大平台的直播收入普遍下滑、爱奇艺、腾讯音乐等以卖会员为主的平台全都陷入增长停滞或者收入下滑，就连以往最赚钱的游戏业务，也失去了增长的魔力。刚刚发布财报的挚文集团，在一季度收入同比下滑9.2%，探探付费人数同比下滑50万。\n这种趋势似乎与行业无关，它的实质是，消费者没有以往那样愿意掏钱。\n于是，搞钱者就需要更加努力了。\n02 你不赚钱，与我何干\n从搞钱者那里搞钱，并不是互联网平台经济的专属。\n那个门店超过36000家的蜜雪冰城，比瑞幸更加谙熟什么叫“平台经济”。靠着30%左右的毛利率，这家品牌甚至比毛利率高达60%的奈雪更加赚钱。\n原因当然是加盟。\n蜜雪冰城几乎没有自己的店。招股书披露，蜜雪冰城自营店占比不到0.2%。绝大部分收入，都来自那些渴望开店赚钱的商家。招股书还披露，蜜雪冰城为中国现制饮品行业中极少数实现加盟商的饮品食材、包材及设备100%从品牌方采购的品牌——想卖奶茶，就得在我这买原料。\n蜜雪冰城的模式让奈雪羡慕不已。2023年7月，奈雪的茶启动加盟模式，81家加盟店顺利开业。2024年2月，奈雪的茶降低加盟门槛，把资金要求从近百万下调至58万，奈雪方面透露已有1000多人缴纳10万元意向金。\n这种“你开店我赚钱”的逻辑，其实也是黄仁勋千亿身价的秘密。\n不久前，国内大模型开启了一轮猛烈的价格战，打折比例动辄8成9成，甚至有厂商直接免费开放。大模型厂商的目的很简单：客户使用率太低了，提升一下。\nGPT风靡至今一年半了，仍然很难说大模型有多赚钱。OpenAI仍未盈利。国内的KIMI探索用打赏变现，但这“仨瓜俩枣”显然难以覆盖庞大的算力成本和买量成本。百度在一季度财报会上公布了生成式AI对智能云收入的贡献比例：6.9%，差不多3.2亿元，约占百度一季度总收入的1%。\n没人怀疑AI终将改变世界，但眼下，靠AI赚大钱还是个梦想。\n梦想不能当饭吃，但别人的梦想可以。\n对英伟达来说，别人的梦想就是它的变现驱动。2024年一季度，英伟达收入达到260亿美元，暴涨262.1%。其中，代表向大模型公司售卖算力的“数据中心业务”收入222.6亿美元，同比大涨427%。多数AI企业还在寻找自己的变现模式，但对英伟达来说，答案已经明确了。\n在KIMI绞尽脑汁让用户打赏5.2元的同时，类似KIMI的大模型厂商却要拿出几百上千亿美元，去购买整体毛利率接近8成的算力——别嫌贵，这大家还得抢着买。至于买完显卡以后，你的大模型能否赚钱，这和英伟达无关。\n对宁德时代来说，车企是否赚钱同样不是他们需要考虑的事。\n在狂打价格战的2023年，强如特斯拉也出现了毛利率下滑。但车企的压力没有传递给宁德时代，2023年，宁德时代的净利润同比增长43.58%，充分阐述了什么叫“死道友，不死贫道”。\n即便是在纯粹的C端生意新能源汽车行业里，能够赚钱的网约车车型也显得更加好卖。在传统车企面临新能源转型的难题时，广汽埃安却迅速完成崛起。它旗下的埃安S和埃安Y每个月能够为这家车企提供超过2万台的销量，成为销量上的一线新能源车企。而它的主要客户之一，正是跑网约车的司机们。\n——赚钱越难，赚钱的路子就越抢手。\n03 永远有人想赚钱\n关于搞钱，网上有这样一种说法：如果一个行业里，大量的人都在兜售赚钱的机会，比如程序员培训班、招餐饮加盟商、付费预测彩票中奖号码，那么意味着这个事根本不好赚钱。\n背后的逻辑很简单：如果谁真有一个绝佳的赚钱机会，那么最好的选择是自己赚，干嘛要卖给其他人？\n其实在前景好的时候，大家的确倾向于自己亲自干。比如阿里巴巴几年前不断扩大自营比例、内容平台纷纷自己做电商，而不是卖电商广告、疫情后的美团力推自有品牌——因为他们认为那是好生意，不想让给其他人。\n但当这些业务遭遇压力，转变出现了。阿里巴巴收缩各种新零售业务、小红书也不断在做电商和卖电商广告之间摇摆。\n这种转变在新能源汽车行业的体现更加明显。\n2021年，新能源汽车市场进入爆炸式增长，新能源已经被普遍承认是未来趋势。这一年前后，滴滴、百度、小米、OPPO等科技企业都自己宣布，或者被传出要造车。\n但造车不是造插线板，它需要数以百亿的资金投入，至少几年的时间准备。而在它们准备这几年里，车市已经发生了翻天覆地的变化。产能危机变成了库存危机，价格战频频，考验着每家车企的现金流。\n看着那低到吓人的汽车价格，很多企业放弃了。百度参与的集度汽车变成了极越汽车，“度”字的消失暗示着主导权的变化；滴滴汽车“变”成了小鹏的一个子品牌；OPPO从汽车改造车机，力图打造汽车生态；华为再三重申不造车，只帮车企造好车。\n用互联网黑话来说，这叫“造车不如造生态”。但如果能把车造好、卖好，谁又愿意只卖车机？无非是行业风险太高，买车人的钱不好赚，那就赚卖车人的钱。\n当然，按理说汽车如果不好卖，车机同样也不好卖；卖奶茶如果不赚钱，加盟权同样也没人买；开网约车不赚钱，卖网约车的也不赚钱。\n但事实证明，商业有周期，人对搞钱的欲望却是没有周期的。人永远都想要钱，哪怕是在钱不好搞的时候。\n2023年以来，多地发出网约车预警，平均收入每况愈下，但依然无法阻挡网约车数量日益增长，埃安S、比亚迪秦的销量也跟着水涨船高。\n2023年618，各大电商平台默契地集体隐藏了618的GMV。这一年，多数电商平台都在承压。但2023财年，淘宝新增了512万个新卖家，财报发布的那个季度，天猫新商家增速提升了75%。\n想搞钱的人实在太多，多到溢出国外。疫情以后，以TEMU、SHEIN、速卖通、TikTok为代表的跨境电商四小龙迅速崛起，而他们爆发的时间，与国内电商大促GMV“小时”的时间点近乎一致，都发生在2023年。\n对大公司来说，矛盾同样存在。2023年，国内至少发布了238个大模型，尽管从大公司财报里还看不到任何一个大模型带给企业的盈利。\n这些竞争虽然激烈，但无论是个体商户，还是市值千亿的上市公司，只要还能看到赚钱的机会，就还得继续坚持。\n而对那些兜售赚钱机会的企业来说，过于操心淘金者们能否赚到钱是没必要的，他们有底气说:你不干，有的是人干。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301141439058168,"gmtCreate":1714526945039,"gmtModify":1714528173305,"author":{"id":"3556572857168639","authorId":"3556572857168639","name":"allen___4469","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b9b99bf786849dc2cae36dd1e1aa8df","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556572857168639","authorIdStr":"3556572857168639"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哇","listText":"哇","text":"哇","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27d355bedc5e7269a8a4f333724c202"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301141439058168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}