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观天下87

观天下87

醉卧经阁半卷书，坐井说天阔

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2020-11-24

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 三年前去过小鹏汽车公司，还是在一孵化产业园中办公，当时的感觉是公司办公环境太差，人员流动太大，怎么也想不到短短三年时间，市值就超过了A股的上汽集团，要知道上汽集团可是拥有几十家分公司，每年大众和通用及五菱汽车等加起来大几百万的产销，而反观小鹏现在的销量也就是一万每月的量，电动汽车的盈利能力不及汽油车，这也是行业共识，美股的分析师们是基于怎样的估值模型把小鹏的股价轰上了天的？这其中的杠杆比例是多大？退一万步说真就是这几家公司干的了互联网造车吗？不以卖车赚钱，赚的是软件服务的钱，这个逻辑能够撑得起特斯拉，蔚来，理想及小鹏这样的市值吗？传统OEM在等待什么？我猜测是在等待最好的入场机会！金融资本的爆炒之后需要市场不断增长的销量和不断提高的利润来消化这么高的估值，这其中的变量千千万，我想美股的分析师肯定不能够全部预判！月满则亏水满则溢，只是时间的问题. 结论：享受到了新能源这波股价的估值暴升，现阶段是在赚取泡沫的钱，留个底仓算作纪念吧！

2023-08-29

预计[龇牙]

蔚来二季度营收87.7亿元同比降14.8%，净亏损60.56亿元

2022-09-01

做空的感觉很棒

蔚来8月交付新车10,677台，同比增长81.6%

2022-07-25

$蔚来(NIO)$继续加码做空的力度，风口上的猪只会乘东风是靠不住的！

2022-06-29

$理想汽车(LI)$坐等L9销量被打脸

2022-06-10

$理想汽车(LI)$中概第一次做空选择了500万以下最好的车企

2022-06-10

$蔚来(NIO)$走出了独立行情

2022-05-09

$天境生物(IMAB)$有人知道张磊的基金还持有这货吗？

2022-05-09

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$你们都躲开点儿，时隔这么久我来抄底了，控制好交易价格和次交易量问题不大，股友们祝福我吧！

2022-05-09

$蔚来(NIO)$股市没有新鲜事，股市最难的就是克服人性的贪，可是不谈的人来股市干什么呢？

2022-03-15

$蔚来(NIO)$长期看NIO股价不会有大的涨幅，继续下跌直至反复震荡是大概率事件

2021-06-21

$RLX科技(RLX)$纯粹的炒作后就是一地鸡毛

2021-06-17

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$保持一颗随时陪钱的心，目前是100%的盈利盘，这个完全是筹码交换的问题……

2021-06-16

$RLX科技(RLX)$忽视或者无视政策性利空叠加仓位管理不当的损失是惨重的，股市就这样，你有99次成功可能毁于一次错误

2021-06-14

$Yalla Group(YALA)$空头有多少子弹可以持续打下去？

2021-06-14

好

@小虎综合资讯:信天创投蒋宇捷：未来十年将是SaaS的黄金时代

2021-06-11

加息预期，股市缩水，避险情绪升温

以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响

2021-06-10

$腾讯音乐(TME)$建仓腾讯音乐，逻辑类似新东方的估值回归，这个回归即有公司本身价值的回归，又有中美宏观经济赋予的重新估值，Bill黄的爆仓已经成为历史！

2021-06-10

$新东方(EDU)$继续加仓，趋势已形成，不破不卖

2021-06-09

$新东方(EDU)$建仓新东方的逻辑就一条，估值修复，估值受损的主要原因之一不成立……

2021-05-27

$RLX科技(RLX)$对于今天针对电子烟的利空因素可以定性为毛刺般的负脉冲，从盘前竞价到现在市场给出了答案，体现的是市场短时的非理性和长期的理性行为

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结论：享受到了新能源这波股价的估值暴升，现阶段是在赚取泡沫的钱，留个底仓算作纪念吧！","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":11,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393011424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494420044734025","authorId":"3494420044734025","name":"Lady_Susu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7655df6b0f443f50fb6475e358d661c0","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494420044734025","authorIdStr":"3494420044734025"},"content":"哪个城市啊？","text":"哪个城市啊？","html":"哪个城市啊？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":214162615193664,"gmtCreate":1693304305227,"gmtModify":1693304306766,"author":{"id":"3554433718518201","authorId":"3554433718518201","name":"观天下87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e1e025d0b0c730c9387f1959c10a83","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554433718518201","authorIdStr":"3554433718518201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"预计[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"预计[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"预计[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/214162615193664","repostId":"1199790296","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199790296","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1693304144,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199790296?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-29 18:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来二季度营收87.7亿元同比降14.8%，净亏损60.56亿元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199790296","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"二季度汽车销量为23,520辆。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>8月29日，蔚来发布2023年第二季度财务报告。</p><p><strong><em><u>第二季度财务摘要</u></em></strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度总收入</strong>为87.717亿元人民币（12.097亿美元），较2022年第二季度下降14.8%，较2023年第一季度下降17.8%。</p></li><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度毛利润</strong>为8700万元人民币（1200万美元），较2022年第二季度下降93.5%，较2023年第一季度下降46.4%。</p></li><li><p>2023年第二季度运营亏损为人民币60.741亿元（8.377亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长113.5%，较2023年第一季度增长18.8%。不包括股权<strong>激励</strong>2023 年第二季度调整后运营亏损（非公认会计准则）为人民币 54.641 亿元（7.535 亿美元），较 2022 年第二季度增长 132.0%，较第一季度增长 20.8% 2023 年。</p></li><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度净亏损</strong>为人民币60.558亿元（合8.351亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长119.6%，较2023年第一季度增长27.8%。不包括股权激励费用，2023年第二季度调整后净亏损（非美国通用会计准则）为人民币54.457亿元（7.510亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长140.2%，较2023年第一季度增长31.2% 。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度汽车销量</strong>为71.852亿元人民币（9.909亿美元），较2022年第二季度下降24.9%，较2023年第一季度下降22.1%。</p></li><li><p>2023年第二季度<strong>车辆利润率</strong>为6.2%，而2022年第二季度为16.7%，2023年第一季度为5.1%。</p></li><li><p>2023年第二季度的<strong>毛利率为1.0%，而2022年第二季度的毛利率为13.0%，2023年第一季度的毛利率为1.5%。</strong></p></li><li><p>截至2023年6月30日，<strong>现金及现金等价物、限制性现金、短期投资和长期定期存款为315亿元人民币（43亿美元）。</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong><em><u>第二季度经营亮点</u></em></strong></p><ul><li><p>2023年第二季度汽车销量为23,520辆，其中高端智能电动SUV 10,492辆，高端智能电动轿车13,028辆，较2022年第二季度下降6.1%，较2023年第一季度下降24.2 <strong>%</strong>。</p></li></ul><p><strong><em><u>三季度营收指引</u></em></strong></p><ul><li><p>预计第三季度收入为189亿元至195.2亿元，同比增长45.3%-50.1%，市场预测为172亿元。</p></li><li><p>预计第三季度交付量为55,000至57,000辆，同比增长74.0%-80.3%，市场预测为48,465辆。</p></li></ul><p><strong>财报发布后，蔚来盘前股价出现“跳水”走势，由涨转跌，截至发稿跌幅超1.7%。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc946c9a57bcadfb66cb0cb0564f5f7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1381\" tg-height=\"763\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来二季度营收87.7亿元同比降14.8%，净亏损60.56亿元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来二季度营收87.7亿元同比降14.8%，净亏损60.56亿元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-29 18:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月29日，蔚来发布2023年第二季度财务报告。</p><p><strong><em><u>第二季度财务摘要</u></em></strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度总收入</strong>为87.717亿元人民币（12.097亿美元），较2022年第二季度下降14.8%，较2023年第一季度下降17.8%。</p></li><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度毛利润</strong>为8700万元人民币（1200万美元），较2022年第二季度下降93.5%，较2023年第一季度下降46.4%。</p></li><li><p>2023年第二季度运营亏损为人民币60.741亿元（8.377亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长113.5%，较2023年第一季度增长18.8%。不包括股权<strong>激励</strong>2023 年第二季度调整后运营亏损（非公认会计准则）为人民币 54.641 亿元（7.535 亿美元），较 2022 年第二季度增长 132.0%，较第一季度增长 20.8% 2023 年。</p></li><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度净亏损</strong>为人民币60.558亿元（合8.351亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长119.6%，较2023年第一季度增长27.8%。不包括股权激励费用，2023年第二季度调整后净亏损（非美国通用会计准则）为人民币54.457亿元（7.510亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长140.2%，较2023年第一季度增长31.2% 。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><strong>2023年第二季度汽车销量</strong>为71.852亿元人民币（9.909亿美元），较2022年第二季度下降24.9%，较2023年第一季度下降22.1%。</p></li><li><p>2023年第二季度<strong>车辆利润率</strong>为6.2%，而2022年第二季度为16.7%，2023年第一季度为5.1%。</p></li><li><p>2023年第二季度的<strong>毛利率为1.0%，而2022年第二季度的毛利率为13.0%，2023年第一季度的毛利率为1.5%。</strong></p></li><li><p>截至2023年6月30日，<strong>现金及现金等价物、限制性现金、短期投资和长期定期存款为315亿元人民币（43亿美元）。</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong><em><u>第二季度经营亮点</u></em></strong></p><ul><li><p>2023年第二季度汽车销量为23,520辆，其中高端智能电动SUV 10,492辆，高端智能电动轿车13,028辆，较2022年第二季度下降6.1%，较2023年第一季度下降24.2 <strong>%</strong>。</p></li></ul><p><strong><em><u>三季度营收指引</u></em></strong></p><ul><li><p>预计第三季度收入为189亿元至195.2亿元，同比增长45.3%-50.1%，市场预测为172亿元。</p></li><li><p>预计第三季度交付量为55,000至57,000辆，同比增长74.0%-80.3%，市场预测为48,465辆。</p></li></ul><p><strong>财报发布后，蔚来盘前股价出现“跳水”走势，由涨转跌，截至发稿跌幅超1.7%。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc946c9a57bcadfb66cb0cb0564f5f7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1381\" tg-height=\"763\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b92523152bd36c422721756606e549","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199790296","content_text":"8月29日，蔚来发布2023年第二季度财务报告。第二季度财务摘要2023年第二季度总收入为87.717亿元人民币（12.097亿美元），较2022年第二季度下降14.8%，较2023年第一季度下降17.8%。2023年第二季度毛利润为8700万元人民币（1200万美元），较2022年第二季度下降93.5%，较2023年第一季度下降46.4%。2023年第二季度运营亏损为人民币60.741亿元（8.377亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长113.5%，较2023年第一季度增长18.8%。不包括股权激励2023 年第二季度调整后运营亏损（非公认会计准则）为人民币 54.641 亿元（7.535 亿美元），较 2022 年第二季度增长 132.0%，较第一季度增长 20.8% 2023 年。2023年第二季度净亏损为人民币60.558亿元（合8.351亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长119.6%，较2023年第一季度增长27.8%。不包括股权激励费用，2023年第二季度调整后净亏损（非美国通用会计准则）为人民币54.457亿元（7.510亿美元），较2022年第二季度增长140.2%，较2023年第一季度增长31.2% 。2023年第二季度汽车销量为71.852亿元人民币（9.909亿美元），较2022年第二季度下降24.9%，较2023年第一季度下降22.1%。2023年第二季度车辆利润率为6.2%，而2022年第二季度为16.7%，2023年第一季度为5.1%。2023年第二季度的毛利率为1.0%，而2022年第二季度的毛利率为13.0%，2023年第一季度的毛利率为1.5%。截至2023年6月30日，现金及现金等价物、限制性现金、短期投资和长期定期存款为315亿元人民币（43亿美元）。第二季度经营亮点2023年第二季度汽车销量为23,520辆，其中高端智能电动SUV 10,492辆，高端智能电动轿车13,028辆，较2022年第二季度下降6.1%，较2023年第一季度下降24.2 %。三季度营收指引预计第三季度收入为189亿元至195.2亿元，同比增长45.3%-50.1%，市场预测为172亿元。预计第三季度交付量为55,000至57,000辆，同比增长74.0%-80.3%，市场预测为48,465辆。财报发布后，蔚来盘前股价出现“跳水”走势，由涨转跌，截至发稿跌幅超1.7%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669922191,"gmtCreate":1662041749813,"gmtModify":1662041750736,"author":{"id":"3554433718518201","authorId":"3554433718518201","name":"观天下87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e1e025d0b0c730c9387f1959c10a83","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554433718518201","authorIdStr":"3554433718518201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"做空的感觉很棒","listText":"做空的感觉很棒","text":"做空的感觉很棒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669922191","repostId":"1167581292","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167581292","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1662024682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167581292?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-01 17:31","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"蔚来8月交付新车10,677台，同比增长81.6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167581292","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月1日， 蔚来公布2022年8月交付量，共交付新车10,677台，同比增长81.6%。2022年1-8月，蔚来交付新车71,556台，同比增长28.3%。蔚来新车累计已交付238,626台。8月，搭","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月1日， 蔚来公布2022年8月交付量，共交付新车10,677台，同比增长81.6%。</p><p>2022年1-8月，蔚来交付新车71,556台，同比增长28.3%。</p><p>蔚来新车累计已交付238,626台。</p><p>8月，搭载Alder智能系统的2022款ES8、ES6、EC6，以及智能电动中大型SUV 蔚来ES7陆续开启交付。智能电动轿跑蔚来ET5将于9月9日开启锁单，首批车辆将在9月30日交付。 蔚来今年的产品切换季基本结束，接下来会进入一个平稳发展期。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4627bff538c2af05c5f46ff42e239353\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来8月交付新车10,677台，同比增长81.6%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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Day首站顺利举行。现场，信天创投管理合伙人蒋宇捷带来了《为什么SaaS是价值投资的最佳赛道》的主题演讲。 “SaaS，是过去十年回报最高的美股资产。”在演讲的开头，蒋宇捷就点出了SaaS行业的高潜力，“从2013年到现在，整个SaaS指数的回报高达970%。 如果进行横线对比，在过去十年，美股最厉害FAANG组合创造了23倍的回报，而由微软、亚马逊及另外几家SaaS构成的MT SAAS组合，过去十年的收益达到了惊人的3000%。”为什么SaaS行业整体的估值水平有这么大的提升？ 蒋宇捷指出了三个原因：“首先是SaaS的平均增速，SaaS在过去7、8年间保持在25%以上增速，几乎保持不变。其次是因为投到SaaS公司的资金成指数型增长，在2010到2020年间，投向美国私有云计算公司的资金增长了12倍，去年高达1800亿美金，而大资金的进入，就会带来市值的估值水平明显提升。最后就是领先的SaaS公司展现出前所未有的增长耐力，比如Twilio，虽然华尔街在2016年认为它的增速会降低到30%，但直到现在，它的平均增速还是60%，这样的公司还有很多。” 如此惊人的持续性高增速，换做另外一个行业都很难做到，那SaaS能实现如此亮眼增速的原因是什么？蒋宇捷认为SaaS是软件业的工业革命：“每次工业革命都会重新定义品类、重新定义上中下游以及把能力开放给其他门类。而拿SaaS的鼻祖Salesforce为例，Salesforce最开始用云端的软件托管模式，重新定义了企业软件，第二，它改变了传统的销售模式和定价模式，跳过了经销商、代理商，它研发出来的CRM产品比传统厂商的更好用。第三，它推出了第一个PaaS，让这些研发者、SaaS厂商能够基于他们平台，构建和运行SaaS应用，把能力开放给市场。”而聊起SaaS行业的商业模式，蒋宇捷用税收举了一","listText":"6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day首站顺利举行。现场，信天创投管理合伙人蒋宇捷带来了《为什么SaaS是价值投资的最佳赛道》的主题演讲。 “SaaS，是过去十年回报最高的美股资产。”在演讲的开头，蒋宇捷就点出了SaaS行业的高潜力，“从2013年到现在，整个SaaS指数的回报高达970%。 如果进行横线对比，在过去十年，美股最厉害FAANG组合创造了23倍的回报，而由微软、亚马逊及另外几家SaaS构成的MT SAAS组合，过去十年的收益达到了惊人的3000%。”为什么SaaS行业整体的估值水平有这么大的提升？ 蒋宇捷指出了三个原因：“首先是SaaS的平均增速，SaaS在过去7、8年间保持在25%以上增速，几乎保持不变。其次是因为投到SaaS公司的资金成指数型增长，在2010到2020年间，投向美国私有云计算公司的资金增长了12倍，去年高达1800亿美金，而大资金的进入，就会带来市值的估值水平明显提升。最后就是领先的SaaS公司展现出前所未有的增长耐力，比如Twilio，虽然华尔街在2016年认为它的增速会降低到30%，但直到现在，它的平均增速还是60%，这样的公司还有很多。” 如此惊人的持续性高增速，换做另外一个行业都很难做到，那SaaS能实现如此亮眼增速的原因是什么？蒋宇捷认为SaaS是软件业的工业革命：“每次工业革命都会重新定义品类、重新定义上中下游以及把能力开放给其他门类。而拿SaaS的鼻祖Salesforce为例，Salesforce最开始用云端的软件托管模式，重新定义了企业软件，第二，它改变了传统的销售模式和定价模式，跳过了经销商、代理商，它研发出来的CRM产品比传统厂商的更好用。第三，它推出了第一个PaaS，让这些研发者、SaaS厂商能够基于他们平台，构建和运行SaaS应用，把能力开放给市场。”而聊起SaaS行业的商业模式，蒋宇捷用税收举了一","text":"6月12日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day首站顺利举行。现场，信天创投管理合伙人蒋宇捷带来了《为什么SaaS是价值投资的最佳赛道》的主题演讲。 “SaaS，是过去十年回报最高的美股资产。”在演讲的开头，蒋宇捷就点出了SaaS行业的高潜力，“从2013年到现在，整个SaaS指数的回报高达970%。 如果进行横线对比，在过去十年，美股最厉害FAANG组合创造了23倍的回报，而由微软、亚马逊及另外几家SaaS构成的MT SAAS组合，过去十年的收益达到了惊人的3000%。”为什么SaaS行业整体的估值水平有这么大的提升？ 蒋宇捷指出了三个原因：“首先是SaaS的平均增速，SaaS在过去7、8年间保持在25%以上增速，几乎保持不变。其次是因为投到SaaS公司的资金成指数型增长，在2010到2020年间，投向美国私有云计算公司的资金增长了12倍，去年高达1800亿美金，而大资金的进入，就会带来市值的估值水平明显提升。最后就是领先的SaaS公司展现出前所未有的增长耐力，比如Twilio，虽然华尔街在2016年认为它的增速会降低到30%，但直到现在，它的平均增速还是60%，这样的公司还有很多。” 如此惊人的持续性高增速，换做另外一个行业都很难做到，那SaaS能实现如此亮眼增速的原因是什么？蒋宇捷认为SaaS是软件业的工业革命：“每次工业革命都会重新定义品类、重新定义上中下游以及把能力开放给其他门类。而拿SaaS的鼻祖Salesforce为例，Salesforce最开始用云端的软件托管模式，重新定义了企业软件，第二，它改变了传统的销售模式和定价模式，跳过了经销商、代理商，它研发出来的CRM产品比传统厂商的更好用。第三，它推出了第一个PaaS，让这些研发者、SaaS厂商能够基于他们平台，构建和运行SaaS应用，把能力开放给市场。”而聊起SaaS行业的商业模式，蒋宇捷用税收举了一","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9405f6d2cb606aca0453a8a98ee290c","width":"2084","height":"602"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0797ed32a289f3b8dffd856114fb0d80","width":"830","height":"1174"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/059f0959630053ec172e9dedf0205cc4","width":"2080","height":"590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185777817","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181581566,"gmtCreate":1623401658755,"gmtModify":1623401658755,"author":{"id":"3554433718518201","authorId":"3554433718518201","name":"观天下87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e1e025d0b0c730c9387f1959c10a83","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554433718518201","authorIdStr":"3554433718518201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加息预期，股市缩水，避险情绪升温","listText":"加息预期，股市缩水，避险情绪升温","text":"加息预期，股市缩水，避险情绪升温","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181581566","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183496513,"gmtCreate":1623339236832,"gmtModify":1623339236832,"author":{"id":"3554433718518201","authorId":"3554433718518201","name":"观天下87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0e1e025d0b0c730c9387f1959c10a83","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554433718518201","authorIdStr":"3554433718518201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>建仓腾讯音乐，逻辑类似新东方的估值回归，这个回归即有公司本身价值的回归，又有中美宏观经济赋予的重新估值，Bill黄的爆仓已经成为历史！","listText":"<a 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