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老当益壮铁树开花
06-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
观望,虽说人工智能是未来,但是高级的技术绝对不能是通过堆料来实现,现在为了训练人工智能,动不动就要几万片英伟达芯片,这像不像拿几万片586组合成超级计算机?
老当益壮铁树开花
06-21
盘前就打脸,你不会是诱多吧
Here's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High
老当益壮铁树开花
06-20
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
除去芯片,预计这个单子也就2-3个亿,算大单吗?和季度指引目标51亿相比可真不多,不知道做指引的时候有没有把这2-3亿算进去。对业绩真没什么影响,影响更大的反而是马斯克这个招牌
老当益壮铁树开花
06-20
马斯克这是雨露均沾啊,5个亿的单子一个公司都不够吃,这还要分给两个经营困难的公司,一个公司才得到2.5亿,最多起到炒作的作用
马斯克揭晓xAI超算两大合作方:戴尔和超微电脑
老当益壮铁树开花
06-20
$戴尔(DELL)$
根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?戴尔一个季度营业额是200多亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才1-2%左右,影响小到忽略不计,充其量也就沾点马斯克的仙气。
老当益壮铁树开花
06-20
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?超微一季度发的指引下个季度营业额是51-55亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才5%左右,影响很小。
老当益壮铁树开花
06-14
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
主力:拉升股价易,派发筹码难☹️
老当益壮铁树开花
06-13
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
今天超微涨的有点没有理由,是反弹?还是有利好?或者为了融资?
老当益壮铁树开花
06-12
$苹果(AAPL)$
以后这苹果手机起价还不得上万?
老当益壮铁树开花
06-12
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
骗炮的态势啊
老当益壮铁树开花
06-10
经营现金流-18亿,债务利息-18亿,回购还得好几个亿吧,那20亿现金怕是已经快花完了吧。还在这嘴硬,打肿脸皮充胖子,真要生意好的话,也不至于货卖出去拿不回来钱吧,应收帐款、存货继续创新高,都算资产呗,资产是真不少
Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up
老当益壮铁树开花
06-07
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
最近超微电脑把股价控制在750-800之间,不会是要在这增发融资吧?
老当益壮铁树开花
06-07
发一篇文章挣多少钱,同一篇文章一直发,如果实在没有消息还可以发天气预报嘛
AI数据中心需求爆发 超微电脑乐观预测:明年液冷采用率将达30%丨从华尔街到陆家嘴
老当益壮铁树开花
06-06
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
无论唱空还是唱多,尽量说出点理由,大家一起进步一起发财,别无脑多无脑空,更别见不得富、看不起穷,赚钱别骄傲,赔钱别气馁,炒股路上苦,大家一起共度,加油!
老当益壮铁树开花
06-06
$戴尔(DELL)$
戴尔和超微电脑谁更胜一筹? 液冷可能没什么技术门槛,戴尔也具备。目前AI服务器占AI市场的很小一部分,可以这么说,在这场AI盛宴,英伟达享受的是海鲜和大块肉,AI服务器部分只有几十亿,戴尔和超微电脑只能喝点汤。根据目前的消息,戴尔可能会喝到大部分的汤,超微电脑的收入前景就不太乐观,英伟达黄教主也在最近的演讲提到戴尔,提点了戴尔。也许二季度戴尔会有可能比指引超预期,戴尔机会会多一点。
老当益壮铁树开花
06-06
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
戴尔和超微电脑谁更胜一筹? 液冷可能没什么技术门槛,戴尔也具备。目前AI服务器占AI市场的很小一部分,可以这么说,在这场AI盛宴,英伟达享受的是海鲜和大块肉,AI服务器部分只有几十亿,戴尔和超微电脑只能喝点汤。根据目前的消息,戴尔可能会喝到大部分的汤,超微电脑的收入前景就不太乐观,英伟达黄教主也在最近的演讲提到戴尔,提点了戴尔。也许二季度戴尔会有可能比指引超预期,戴尔机会会多一点。
老当益壮铁树开花
06-06
$戴尔(DELL)$
戴尔是一家神奇的公司,资产负债表的多年应付账款保持在200亿左右,应记费用也有几十亿,应付账款和应记费用都属于流动负债,不是说流动负债是一年以内要还的吗?怎么感觉戴尔像不用还似的,有没有高人分析分析是什么原因?
老当益壮铁树开花
06-06
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
超微主力波斯湾护航英伟达冲刺1220号高地任务圆满完成,准备撤退?
老当益壮铁树开花
06-05
$英伟达(NVDA)$
千呼万唤一千二,犹抱琵琶半遮面
老当益壮铁树开花
06-05
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
今天阿达冲1200,不再抠门了,也拉一把小微和小戴,毕竟都是先锋集团和贝莱德集团的AI舰队的武装力量,步调一致才能发挥最大作战效能。
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 观望,虽说人工智能是未来,但是高级的技术绝对不能是通过堆料来实现,现在为了训练人工智能,动不动就要几万片英伟达芯片,这像不像拿几万片586组合成超级计算机?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 观望,虽说人工智能是未来,但是高级的技术绝对不能是通过堆料来实现,现在为了训练人工智能,动不动就要几万片英伟达芯片,这像不像拿几万片586组合成超级计算机?","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 观望,虽说人工智能是未来,但是高级的技术绝对不能是通过堆料来实现,现在为了训练人工智能,动不动就要几万片英伟达芯片,这像不像拿几万片586组合成超级计算机?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321034951454720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319225966743808,"gmtCreate":1718962017895,"gmtModify":1718962020053,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"盘前就打脸,你不会是诱多吧","listText":"盘前就打脸,你不会是诱多吧","text":"盘前就打脸,你不会是诱多吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319225966743808","repostId":"2445232092","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2445232092","pubTimestamp":1718956835,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2445232092?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-21 16:00","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2445232092","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SMCI has been a clear winner in the market's ongoing AI rally, despite recently paring some of its gains on mixed earnings results.Yet the stock has been showing signs of a sustained recovery in recen","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>SMCI has been a clear winner in the market's ongoing AI rally, despite recently paring some of its gains on mixed earnings results.</p></li><li><p>Yet the stock has been showing signs of a sustained recovery in recent weeks, underpinned by a successful Computex keynote that shows SMCI's mission-critical role in AI developments remains intact.</p></li><li><p>SMCI also benefits from tangible fundamental tailwinds ahead, with improving supplies, additive growth from its first mover advantage in the provision of DLC solutions at scale, and increasing operating leverage.</p></li><li><p>Trading at 2.5x estimated sales and 28.5x estimated earnings, SMCI's fundamental strength and emerging DLC advantage remain underappreciated, with potential for further upside.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e678235f3d3a4c30f6900e649543eed9\" alt=\"JHVEPhoto\" title=\"JHVEPhoto\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>JHVEPhoto</span></p><p>Since recognizing Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) as a potentially overlooked AI winner during our initiating coverage in mid-2023, the stock has surged more than 400% before giving back some of its gains in recent months. Admittedly, it has been a volatile couple of months for the SMCI stock since its S&P 500 admission and mixed F3Q24 earnings update. But it has finally started to show some signs of a sustained recovery in recent weeks. Building on our previous coverage of SMCI, which focused on the stock's valuation considerations on the eve of its S&P 500 admission, the following analysis will dive further into why we believe the recent rally still has legs.</p><p>The company remains well-positioned for acceleration exiting FY 2024. Fundamentally, SMCI is primed for further ramp tailwinds heading into FY 2025, driven by its additive technology advantage to existing AI momentum and improving supply chains. Specifically, SMCI is currently the only server company that can provide direct liquid cooling ("DLC") solutions - the answer to unlocking incremental power efficiency in the AI- and data-first era - at scale. This makes DLC a key unique near-term growth driver for SMCI, as the technology addresses increasing optimization and scalability requirements from enterprise end-users.</p><p>SMCI also benefits from a sufficient cash runway to support its growth roadmap. The latest cash injection from the $1.5 billion convertible notes issuance earlier this year is expected to yield a competitive ROIC. Not only is the anticipated transition to DLC likely to drive an ensuing upgrade cycle to propel growth, but the lower cost of DLC production will also be accretive to SMCI's profit margins. The continued ramp of DLC sales at scale will also be key to offsetting near-term gross margin headwinds stemming from the aggressive pricing strategy implemented by management to drive market share gains. The recent impact on working capital from the end of F3Q inventory build is also likely to alleviate exiting F4Q due to SMCI's record-setting backlog. Taken together, SMCI is likely to benefit from an impending restoration to its cash flow strength, which we believe will, inadvertently, propel valuation gains.</p><p>Currently trading at about 2.5x estimated sales and 28.5x estimated earnings, SMCI continues to underperform its broader semiconductor and server peers with a comparable earnings outlook and capital intensity. We believe SMCI's DLC advantage and ensuing monetization roadmap for the technology, which will be additive to the existing benefit of AI-driven momentum, remains underappreciated at current levels.</p><h2 id=\"id_2264917095\">SMCI's Direct Liquid Cooling Advantage</h2><p>Admittedly, SMCI has been a key beneficiary of the AI-driven refresh cycle for data center infrastructure. This is evident in SMCI's ballooning server and storage systems sales growth in recent quarters, propelled by its proprietary building block rack scale plug-and-play architecture which enables upgrades without significant adjustments to existing infrastructure. This momentum is expected to be further sustained by the emerging ramp of SMCI's DLC technology, which will unlock greater scalability for customers looking to optimize the performance and efficiency gains of existing infrastructure.</p><p>SMCI is currently the only provider of DLC solutions through its plug-and-play architecture at scale. This makes a strong competitive and first-mover advantage for SMCI, as DLC demand will likely ramp up alongside the increasing energy intensity of next-generation accelerated data center infrastructure needed to facilitate AI/ML workloads.</p><p>Specifically, increasingly complex workloads like AI training and inferencing are inherently compute-hungry. Despite the anticipated efficiency gains promised by the transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing, the latter will inevitably require "larger amounts of power" and, inadvertently, increase energy consumption and costs for data center operators and enterprise end-users. Although mainstream adoption of generative AI solutions remains in the early stages, the International Energy Agency is estimating electricity consumption by the global data center footprint to double between 2022 and 2026. To put into better perspective, recent studies show that one AI-generated image is estimated to consume "as much energy as 522 smartphones".</p><p>Admittedly, next-generation data center GPUs are increasingly touting better energy efficiency. For instance, NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA) upcoming Blackwell GPUs are expected to deliver "up to 25x less cost and energy consumption" than its predecessor; Intel Corporation's (INTC) latest Gaudi 3 AI accelerator is expected to deliver 40% better power efficiency on average than competition. Yet improvements in GPU configurations alone are unlikely to suffice in addressing the impending acceleration in energy demand to support increasingly complex workloads. Adjacent technology improvements, such as SMCI's DLC solutions, will be critical to addressing the impending increase in both cost and environmental implications of pursuing AI developments.</p><p>Specifically, SMCI's DLC solution, when complemented by its rack-scale plug-and-play architecture, is capable of reducing data center power consumption by up to 40%. On the grand scale, SMCI's liquid-cooled racks can deliver up to 3% in initial capex reduction, and up to $60 million in net opex reduction over five years, contributing favorably to TCO considerations.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/99f0d5db9356f7035517682ec893033d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"/></p><p>supermicro.com</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a60e381c1db2ae24edad6a15c6d347a0\" alt=\"supermicro.com\" title=\"supermicro.com\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"/><span>supermicro.com</span></p><p>Many of the next-generation AI accelerator chips critical in powering the transition to accelerated computing have been designed with optimized compatibility with DLC technology. For instance, Nvidia has long embraced compatibility with liquid-cooling technology for its GPUs. The AI darling had referenced liquid cooling as a solution that is "maturing in the age of AI" back in mid-2022 before OpenAI's ChatGPT even went viral. Nvidia even went further to cite the critical role of liquid cooling in reducing both data center rack count and power costs.</p><p>This continues to corroborate a strong ramp trajectory for SMCI's proprietary DLC solution ahead. Specifically, management anticipates DLC deployments to penetrate 15% of new data center builds worldwide over the next 12 months, up from 1% adoption observed steadily over the past three decades. Penetration is estimated to reach 30% in the year to follow, highlighting another potentially accelerating revenue stream for SMCI to sustain its current pace of breakneck growth.</p><p>The anticipated pace of market share gains is not only complemented by current AI development needs, but also by improving supply availability from SMCI. The company anticipates full capacity for its liquid-cooled racks at 5,000 units per month, with the near-term ramp-up pace towards 2,000 units per month exiting FY 2024.</p><p>In addition to the robust demand environment, SMCI also benefits from a more favorable cost structure for the production of liquid-cooled racks compared to its traditional air-cooling solutions. Based on management's keynote at Computex 2024, SMCI is capable of building DLC solutions at a lower cost than traditional air-cooling solutions. Scalability is also high, with DLC's estimated production-to-delivery completion timeline set within two to four weeks, which is reduced significantly from the traditional 4 to 12 months.</p><p>The upcoming ramp of SMCI's DLC solution also coincides with new systems coming later this year, fitted with upgraded chips such as the next-generation H200, B100, and B200 GPUs from Nvidia; Gaudi 2 and Gaudi 3 accelerators from Intel; and Instinct MI300X and MI300A accelerators from Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD). This accordingly reinforces SMCI's forward demand environment, building on Nvidia's recent expectations for incremental GPU uptake from enterprise and sovereign end-markets, while initial deployments at hyperscalers continue to ramp.</p><h2 id=\"id_1926817656\">Fundamental Considerations</h2><p>Adjusting our previous forecast for SMCI's F3Q24 results and raised revenue guidance for FY 2024, we estimate current year revenue growth at 109% to $14.9 billion. The server and storage systems segment will continue to spearhead growth acceleration at SMCI.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d35c6bb409a272a4e5cc956087a60cac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"56\"/></p><p>Author</p><p></p><p>Specifically, we anticipate sequential acceleration starting in the current quarter, with a stronger pace of growth exiting the coming December quarter. Recall that SMCI's backlog has reached a record high in F3Q24, underscoring how demand remains a function of supply availability for the company. And the anticipated strength of SMCI's near-term growth trajectory will be supported by its improving supply chains.</p><p>In the current quarter, we expect SMCI's growth trajectory to benefit from the release of the late inventory build observed exiting F3Q24, which had previously weighed on its working capital and cash flows underpinning its valuation. This will be further reinforced by the continued ramp of DLC solutions towards scale, alongside incremental systems production capacity coming online from SMCI's Malaysian facility at the end of calendar 2024. Anticipated incremental demand for next-generation systems based on the updated GPU cycle from chipmakers like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel later calendar 2024 should also bolster expectations for a sequential growth uptick ahead at SMCI.</p><p>On the profitability front, our forecast has considered management's conservative expectations for a slight sequential decline in gross margins to reflect their continued adoption of an aggressive pricing strategy in exchange for market share gains. However, over the longer term, we remain confident in the materialization of SMCI's margin accretive factors.</p><p>These include economies of scale benefits from the continued ramp of SMCI's new facilities across the U.S., Malaysia, and Taiwan, which are expected to yield a combined incremental annualized revenue capacity of $25 billion; and lower cost, higher margin next-generation products like SMCI's DLC rack solutions. SMCI's long-term margin accretive factors are further corroborated by the company's disciplined opex spend management observed in recent quarters. Taken together, SMCI remains well-positioned to return gross margins to the higher range of its 14% to 17% target range once new products and capacity ramp towards scale.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7705b7643983bf8d9499ff65d07a1d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\"/></p><p>Author</p><h2 id=\"id_4028795911\">Valuation Considerations</h2><p>We remain confident that SMCI has the fundamental capability to return the stock towards new all-time highs. Taking into consideration the foregoing analysis, we are setting the base case price target at <strong>$1,100</strong> apiece.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1ebd4e9b2630b5be8b894509d8361d5\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\"/><span>Author</span></p><p>The price is derived based on the discounted cash flow approach, with consideration of cash flow projections taken in conjunction with the fundamental forecast discussed in the earlier section. The analysis considers a WACC of 8.6%, which is in line with SMCI's risk profile and capital structure. An estimated perpetual growth rate of 3.0% is also applied to FY 2028E EBITDA to determine SMCI's terminal value. The valuation assumption applied in line with the pace of economic expansion across SMCI's core operating regions and reflective of its anticipated long-term steady-state growth outlook.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/993ea459d72c021a2da5fc6ba4e29782\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"/><span>Author</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/824d5e4b1b3ceb7d22e6761d75ab9e92\" alt=\"Author\" title=\"Author\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"225\"/><span>Author</span></p><p></p><p>Looking ahead, we remain cautious of continued volatility due to non-fundamental considerations. Specifically, SMCI is currently one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the S&P 500, with its short float exceeding 7%. This compares to the less-than-5% observed across its server peers, as well as broader market AI winners like Nvidia.</p><p>With anticipation for a strong fundamental trajectory ahead, which is supportive of cash flow growth and ensuing valuation gains, the relatively hefty short interest currently observed in SMCI may reverse in the near term. This is consistent with the early onset of Nvidia's recent upsurge in mid-2023 when short-sellers were forced to mitigate their exposure following the chipmaker's earlier rounds of blockbuster earnings outperformance and "blow-out" guidance.</p><p>As a result, the current 7%+ short float on the SMCI stock serves as not only a potential indicator for near-term volatility, but also prospects for a further upsurge fuelled by tangible fundamental strength. Recall that management has acknowledged conservatism to SMCI's growth and earnings outlook existing FY 2024, citing a strong demand environment and improving supplies to address its record backlog. Paired with multiple margin accretive factors through FY 2025 and beyond as discussed in the foregoing analysis, we believe SMCI remains well-positioned for a further upsurge towards its upside scenario at $1,300 apiece, which would set a new record-high for the stock.</p><h2 id=\"id_2732598335\">Conclusion</h2><p>SMCI remains well-positioned fundamentally for both the near- and longer-term, with improving supplies reinforcing optimized monetization of its strong demand environment. More importantly, further penetration for its DLC solution will be additive to existing AI-driven growth. And the ramp trajectory of SMCI's competitive advantage in DLC solutions at scale remains strong, given continued industry prioritization of optimization and new infrastructure builds to support increasingly complex, and compute and energy-intensive AI workloads.</p><p>Taken together with the favorable cost structure of its DLC ramp, improving economies of scale at new facilities, and robust cash flows supported by the latest convertible issuance to fund long-term growth initiatives with strong returns, the SMCI stock shows a favorable risk-reward set-up at current levels.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think Super Micro Computer Will Hit Another All-Time High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 16:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700201-we-think-super-micro-computer-will-hit-another-all-time-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SMCI has been a clear winner in the market's ongoing AI rally, despite recently paring some of its gains on mixed earnings results.Yet the stock has been showing signs of a sustained recovery in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700201-we-think-super-micro-computer-will-hit-another-all-time-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","SMCI":"超微电脑","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700201-we-think-super-micro-computer-will-hit-another-all-time-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2445232092","content_text":"SMCI has been a clear winner in the market's ongoing AI rally, despite recently paring some of its gains on mixed earnings results.Yet the stock has been showing signs of a sustained recovery in recent weeks, underpinned by a successful Computex keynote that shows SMCI's mission-critical role in AI developments remains intact.SMCI also benefits from tangible fundamental tailwinds ahead, with improving supplies, additive growth from its first mover advantage in the provision of DLC solutions at scale, and increasing operating leverage.Trading at 2.5x estimated sales and 28.5x estimated earnings, SMCI's fundamental strength and emerging DLC advantage remain underappreciated, with potential for further upside.JHVEPhotoSince recognizing Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) as a potentially overlooked AI winner during our initiating coverage in mid-2023, the stock has surged more than 400% before giving back some of its gains in recent months. Admittedly, it has been a volatile couple of months for the SMCI stock since its S&P 500 admission and mixed F3Q24 earnings update. But it has finally started to show some signs of a sustained recovery in recent weeks. Building on our previous coverage of SMCI, which focused on the stock's valuation considerations on the eve of its S&P 500 admission, the following analysis will dive further into why we believe the recent rally still has legs.The company remains well-positioned for acceleration exiting FY 2024. Fundamentally, SMCI is primed for further ramp tailwinds heading into FY 2025, driven by its additive technology advantage to existing AI momentum and improving supply chains. Specifically, SMCI is currently the only server company that can provide direct liquid cooling (\"DLC\") solutions - the answer to unlocking incremental power efficiency in the AI- and data-first era - at scale. This makes DLC a key unique near-term growth driver for SMCI, as the technology addresses increasing optimization and scalability requirements from enterprise end-users.SMCI also benefits from a sufficient cash runway to support its growth roadmap. The latest cash injection from the $1.5 billion convertible notes issuance earlier this year is expected to yield a competitive ROIC. Not only is the anticipated transition to DLC likely to drive an ensuing upgrade cycle to propel growth, but the lower cost of DLC production will also be accretive to SMCI's profit margins. The continued ramp of DLC sales at scale will also be key to offsetting near-term gross margin headwinds stemming from the aggressive pricing strategy implemented by management to drive market share gains. The recent impact on working capital from the end of F3Q inventory build is also likely to alleviate exiting F4Q due to SMCI's record-setting backlog. Taken together, SMCI is likely to benefit from an impending restoration to its cash flow strength, which we believe will, inadvertently, propel valuation gains.Currently trading at about 2.5x estimated sales and 28.5x estimated earnings, SMCI continues to underperform its broader semiconductor and server peers with a comparable earnings outlook and capital intensity. We believe SMCI's DLC advantage and ensuing monetization roadmap for the technology, which will be additive to the existing benefit of AI-driven momentum, remains underappreciated at current levels.SMCI's Direct Liquid Cooling AdvantageAdmittedly, SMCI has been a key beneficiary of the AI-driven refresh cycle for data center infrastructure. This is evident in SMCI's ballooning server and storage systems sales growth in recent quarters, propelled by its proprietary building block rack scale plug-and-play architecture which enables upgrades without significant adjustments to existing infrastructure. This momentum is expected to be further sustained by the emerging ramp of SMCI's DLC technology, which will unlock greater scalability for customers looking to optimize the performance and efficiency gains of existing infrastructure.SMCI is currently the only provider of DLC solutions through its plug-and-play architecture at scale. This makes a strong competitive and first-mover advantage for SMCI, as DLC demand will likely ramp up alongside the increasing energy intensity of next-generation accelerated data center infrastructure needed to facilitate AI/ML workloads.Specifically, increasingly complex workloads like AI training and inferencing are inherently compute-hungry. Despite the anticipated efficiency gains promised by the transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing, the latter will inevitably require \"larger amounts of power\" and, inadvertently, increase energy consumption and costs for data center operators and enterprise end-users. Although mainstream adoption of generative AI solutions remains in the early stages, the International Energy Agency is estimating electricity consumption by the global data center footprint to double between 2022 and 2026. To put into better perspective, recent studies show that one AI-generated image is estimated to consume \"as much energy as 522 smartphones\".Admittedly, next-generation data center GPUs are increasingly touting better energy efficiency. For instance, NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA) upcoming Blackwell GPUs are expected to deliver \"up to 25x less cost and energy consumption\" than its predecessor; Intel Corporation's (INTC) latest Gaudi 3 AI accelerator is expected to deliver 40% better power efficiency on average than competition. Yet improvements in GPU configurations alone are unlikely to suffice in addressing the impending acceleration in energy demand to support increasingly complex workloads. Adjacent technology improvements, such as SMCI's DLC solutions, will be critical to addressing the impending increase in both cost and environmental implications of pursuing AI developments.Specifically, SMCI's DLC solution, when complemented by its rack-scale plug-and-play architecture, is capable of reducing data center power consumption by up to 40%. On the grand scale, SMCI's liquid-cooled racks can deliver up to 3% in initial capex reduction, and up to $60 million in net opex reduction over five years, contributing favorably to TCO considerations.supermicro.comsupermicro.comMany of the next-generation AI accelerator chips critical in powering the transition to accelerated computing have been designed with optimized compatibility with DLC technology. For instance, Nvidia has long embraced compatibility with liquid-cooling technology for its GPUs. The AI darling had referenced liquid cooling as a solution that is \"maturing in the age of AI\" back in mid-2022 before OpenAI's ChatGPT even went viral. Nvidia even went further to cite the critical role of liquid cooling in reducing both data center rack count and power costs.This continues to corroborate a strong ramp trajectory for SMCI's proprietary DLC solution ahead. Specifically, management anticipates DLC deployments to penetrate 15% of new data center builds worldwide over the next 12 months, up from 1% adoption observed steadily over the past three decades. Penetration is estimated to reach 30% in the year to follow, highlighting another potentially accelerating revenue stream for SMCI to sustain its current pace of breakneck growth.The anticipated pace of market share gains is not only complemented by current AI development needs, but also by improving supply availability from SMCI. The company anticipates full capacity for its liquid-cooled racks at 5,000 units per month, with the near-term ramp-up pace towards 2,000 units per month exiting FY 2024.In addition to the robust demand environment, SMCI also benefits from a more favorable cost structure for the production of liquid-cooled racks compared to its traditional air-cooling solutions. Based on management's keynote at Computex 2024, SMCI is capable of building DLC solutions at a lower cost than traditional air-cooling solutions. Scalability is also high, with DLC's estimated production-to-delivery completion timeline set within two to four weeks, which is reduced significantly from the traditional 4 to 12 months.The upcoming ramp of SMCI's DLC solution also coincides with new systems coming later this year, fitted with upgraded chips such as the next-generation H200, B100, and B200 GPUs from Nvidia; Gaudi 2 and Gaudi 3 accelerators from Intel; and Instinct MI300X and MI300A accelerators from Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD). This accordingly reinforces SMCI's forward demand environment, building on Nvidia's recent expectations for incremental GPU uptake from enterprise and sovereign end-markets, while initial deployments at hyperscalers continue to ramp.Fundamental ConsiderationsAdjusting our previous forecast for SMCI's F3Q24 results and raised revenue guidance for FY 2024, we estimate current year revenue growth at 109% to $14.9 billion. The server and storage systems segment will continue to spearhead growth acceleration at SMCI.AuthorSpecifically, we anticipate sequential acceleration starting in the current quarter, with a stronger pace of growth exiting the coming December quarter. Recall that SMCI's backlog has reached a record high in F3Q24, underscoring how demand remains a function of supply availability for the company. And the anticipated strength of SMCI's near-term growth trajectory will be supported by its improving supply chains.In the current quarter, we expect SMCI's growth trajectory to benefit from the release of the late inventory build observed exiting F3Q24, which had previously weighed on its working capital and cash flows underpinning its valuation. This will be further reinforced by the continued ramp of DLC solutions towards scale, alongside incremental systems production capacity coming online from SMCI's Malaysian facility at the end of calendar 2024. Anticipated incremental demand for next-generation systems based on the updated GPU cycle from chipmakers like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel later calendar 2024 should also bolster expectations for a sequential growth uptick ahead at SMCI.On the profitability front, our forecast has considered management's conservative expectations for a slight sequential decline in gross margins to reflect their continued adoption of an aggressive pricing strategy in exchange for market share gains. However, over the longer term, we remain confident in the materialization of SMCI's margin accretive factors.These include economies of scale benefits from the continued ramp of SMCI's new facilities across the U.S., Malaysia, and Taiwan, which are expected to yield a combined incremental annualized revenue capacity of $25 billion; and lower cost, higher margin next-generation products like SMCI's DLC rack solutions. SMCI's long-term margin accretive factors are further corroborated by the company's disciplined opex spend management observed in recent quarters. Taken together, SMCI remains well-positioned to return gross margins to the higher range of its 14% to 17% target range once new products and capacity ramp towards scale.AuthorValuation ConsiderationsWe remain confident that SMCI has the fundamental capability to return the stock towards new all-time highs. Taking into consideration the foregoing analysis, we are setting the base case price target at $1,100 apiece.AuthorThe price is derived based on the discounted cash flow approach, with consideration of cash flow projections taken in conjunction with the fundamental forecast discussed in the earlier section. The analysis considers a WACC of 8.6%, which is in line with SMCI's risk profile and capital structure. An estimated perpetual growth rate of 3.0% is also applied to FY 2028E EBITDA to determine SMCI's terminal value. The valuation assumption applied in line with the pace of economic expansion across SMCI's core operating regions and reflective of its anticipated long-term steady-state growth outlook.AuthorAuthorLooking ahead, we remain cautious of continued volatility due to non-fundamental considerations. Specifically, SMCI is currently one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the S&P 500, with its short float exceeding 7%. This compares to the less-than-5% observed across its server peers, as well as broader market AI winners like Nvidia.With anticipation for a strong fundamental trajectory ahead, which is supportive of cash flow growth and ensuing valuation gains, the relatively hefty short interest currently observed in SMCI may reverse in the near term. This is consistent with the early onset of Nvidia's recent upsurge in mid-2023 when short-sellers were forced to mitigate their exposure following the chipmaker's earlier rounds of blockbuster earnings outperformance and \"blow-out\" guidance.As a result, the current 7%+ short float on the SMCI stock serves as not only a potential indicator for near-term volatility, but also prospects for a further upsurge fuelled by tangible fundamental strength. Recall that management has acknowledged conservatism to SMCI's growth and earnings outlook existing FY 2024, citing a strong demand environment and improving supplies to address its record backlog. Paired with multiple margin accretive factors through FY 2025 and beyond as discussed in the foregoing analysis, we believe SMCI remains well-positioned for a further upsurge towards its upside scenario at $1,300 apiece, which would set a new record-high for the stock.ConclusionSMCI remains well-positioned fundamentally for both the near- and longer-term, with improving supplies reinforcing optimized monetization of its strong demand environment. More importantly, further penetration for its DLC solution will be additive to existing AI-driven growth. And the ramp trajectory of SMCI's competitive advantage in DLC solutions at scale remains strong, given continued industry prioritization of optimization and new infrastructure builds to support increasingly complex, and compute and energy-intensive AI workloads.Taken together with the favorable cost structure of its DLC ramp, improving economies of scale at new facilities, and robust cash flows supported by the latest convertible issuance to fund long-term growth initiatives with strong returns, the SMCI stock shows a favorable risk-reward set-up at current levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318957844230400,"gmtCreate":1718884124080,"gmtModify":1718884125884,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 除去芯片,预计这个单子也就2-3个亿,算大单吗?和季度指引目标51亿相比可真不多,不知道做指引的时候有没有把这2-3亿算进去。对业绩真没什么影响,影响更大的反而是马斯克这个招牌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 除去芯片,预计这个单子也就2-3个亿,算大单吗?和季度指引目标51亿相比可真不多,不知道做指引的时候有没有把这2-3亿算进去。对业绩真没什么影响,影响更大的反而是马斯克这个招牌","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 除去芯片,预计这个单子也就2-3个亿,算大单吗?和季度指引目标51亿相比可真不多,不知道做指引的时候有没有把这2-3亿算进去。对业绩真没什么影响,影响更大的反而是马斯克这个招牌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318957844230400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3543245463218138","authorId":"3543245463218138","name":"流浪虎二号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fbd537d8ead26012bd22119962356e1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"超微的牛逼之处是目前和英伟达绑定,目前成功部署的AI 中心都得用他家方案,而且能节省成本","text":"超微的牛逼之处是目前和英伟达绑定,目前成功部署的AI 中心都得用他家方案,而且能节省成本","html":"超微的牛逼之处是目前和英伟达绑定,目前成功部署的AI 中心都得用他家方案,而且能节省成本"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318883582136544,"gmtCreate":1718866124905,"gmtModify":1718866127206,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马斯克这是雨露均沾啊,5个亿的单子一个公司都不够吃,这还要分给两个经营困难的公司,一个公司才得到2.5亿,最多起到炒作的作用","listText":"马斯克这是雨露均沾啊,5个亿的单子一个公司都不够吃,这还要分给两个经营困难的公司,一个公司才得到2.5亿,最多起到炒作的作用","text":"马斯克这是雨露均沾啊,5个亿的单子一个公司都不够吃,这还要分给两个经营困难的公司,一个公司才得到2.5亿,最多起到炒作的作用","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318883582136544","repostId":"2444058974","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2444058974","pubTimestamp":1718813483,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2444058974?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-20 00:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"马斯克揭晓xAI超算两大合作方:戴尔和超微电脑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2444058974","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"6月19日,戴尔科技CEO Michael Dell在社交媒体X上发帖表示:“我们正在与英伟达合作建设戴尔AI工厂,为马斯克旗下xAI公司的大模型Grok提供支持。”对此,马斯克回应称,确切地说,在xAI正打造的超级计算机方面,戴尔正在组装半数的机架。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>在社交媒体上,戴尔CEO称正与英伟达合作AI工厂,支持马斯克的xAI。马斯克回应称,戴尔正在组装xAI超算的半数服务器机架。当被问到另一半机架谁做,马斯克回复是超微电脑。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克周三在社交媒体平台X上表示,戴尔科技和超微电脑(SMCI)将为他的人工智能初创公司xAI所造超级计算机提供所需的服务器机架。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">6月19日,戴尔科技CEO Michael Dell在社交媒体X上发帖表示,我们正在与英伟达合作建设戴尔AI工厂,为马斯克旗下xAI公司的大模型Grok提供支持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a90b31061fe111faf392581a2f028742\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克回应称,确切地说,在xAI正打造的超级计算机方面,戴尔正在组装半数的机架。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07870f07fc92785409435c9c1dbf1d59\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"850\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鉴于戴尔正在组装半数的机架,有网友问:“另一半机架谁做?是IBM?惠普?Cray?还是SGI?”时,马斯克回复称“SMC”。据悉,超微电脑(SMCI,也就是马斯克说的SMC)以与英伟达等芯片公司的密切联系及其液冷技术而闻名,该公司也向媒体证实了与xAI的合作关系。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d816d1418281f1d9d4ffdd98252fae4e\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"848\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去年,马斯克创立了xAI。据媒体报道,马斯克告诉投资者,他的人工智能初创公司xAI正计划打造一台超级计算机,来驱动其AI聊天机器人Grok的更新版本,他希望在2025年秋季之前让这台超级计算机投入运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是,训练像Grok这样的AI模型需要数万个耗电量巨大的芯片,而这类芯片目前供应紧张。今年早些时候,马斯克表示,训练Grok 2模型大约需要2万个英伟达H100图形处理器(GPUs),Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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Dell在社交媒体X上发帖表示,我们正在与英伟达合作建设...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717633\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb501fe1896f22293654437e482e4d40","relate_stocks":{"LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","DELL":"戴尔","SMCI":"超微电脑","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON 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Dell在社交媒体X上发帖表示,我们正在与英伟达合作建设戴尔AI工厂,为马斯克旗下xAI公司的大模型Grok提供支持。马斯克回应称,确切地说,在xAI正打造的超级计算机方面,戴尔正在组装半数的机架。鉴于戴尔正在组装半数的机架,有网友问:“另一半机架谁做?是IBM?惠普?Cray?还是SGI?”时,马斯克回复称“SMC”。据悉,超微电脑(SMCI,也就是马斯克说的SMC)以与英伟达等芯片公司的密切联系及其液冷技术而闻名,该公司也向媒体证实了与xAI的合作关系。去年,马斯克创立了xAI。据媒体报道,马斯克告诉投资者,他的人工智能初创公司xAI正计划打造一台超级计算机,来驱动其AI聊天机器人Grok的更新版本,他希望在2025年秋季之前让这台超级计算机投入运行。但是,训练像Grok这样的AI模型需要数万个耗电量巨大的芯片,而这类芯片目前供应紧张。今年早些时候,马斯克表示,训练Grok 2模型大约需要2万个英伟达H100图形处理器(GPUs),Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318878964441168,"gmtCreate":1718864985679,"gmtModify":1718865442440,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">$戴尔(DELL)$</a> 根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?戴尔一个季度营业额是200多亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才1-2%左右,影响小到忽略不计,充其量也就沾点马斯克的仙气。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">$戴尔(DELL)$</a> 根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?戴尔一个季度营业额是200多亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才1-2%左右,影响小到忽略不计,充其量也就沾点马斯克的仙气。","text":"$戴尔(DELL)$ 根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?戴尔一个季度营业额是200多亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才1-2%左右,影响小到忽略不计,充其量也就沾点马斯克的仙气。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318878964441168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563270363235900","authorId":"3563270363235900","name":"爱是付出","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0744bf2b16f361a1fca5dbedb057c90","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"对戴尔当前业绩来说,这个计算是没错的,但关键在于,戴尔跟马斯克的合作很有标杆意义,而这一点对戴尔更有长期价值。","text":"对戴尔当前业绩来说,这个计算是没错的,但关键在于,戴尔跟马斯克的合作很有标杆意义,而这一点对戴尔更有长期价值。","html":"对戴尔当前业绩来说,这个计算是没错的,但关键在于,戴尔跟马斯克的合作很有标杆意义,而这一点对戴尔更有长期价值。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318869868695784,"gmtCreate":1718862574117,"gmtModify":1718862673146,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?超微一季度发的指引下个季度营业额是51-55亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才5%左右,影响很小。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?超微一季度发的指引下个季度营业额是51-55亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才5%左右,影响很小。","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 根据预测,XAI的Grok 3模型及以后的版本将需要10万个英伟达H100芯片,一块芯片2.5万美元,大约需要25亿美元,根据服务器和芯片成本比17:83,得出服务器成本约5.12亿美金,戴尔和超微电脑各一半,大约增加2.56亿美金营业额?超微一季度发的指引下个季度营业额是51-55亿美金,除非把芯片的费用也加到服务器里,否则2.56亿占营业额才5%左右,影响很小。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318869868695784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316539844530224,"gmtCreate":1718307894792,"gmtModify":1718358033089,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 主力:拉升股价易,派发筹码难☹️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 主力:拉升股价易,派发筹码难☹️","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 主力:拉升股价易,派发筹码难☹️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316539844530224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4172901375472760","authorId":"4172901375472760","name":"黑土割","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"沙雕别拿大a那一套来搞美股,","text":"沙雕别拿大a那一套来搞美股,","html":"沙雕别拿大a那一套来搞美股,"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316479859359816,"gmtCreate":1718293391516,"gmtModify":1718358033123,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 今天超微涨的有点没有理由,是反弹?还是有利好?或者为了融资?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 今天超微涨的有点没有理由,是反弹?还是有利好?或者为了融资?","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 今天超微涨的有点没有理由,是反弹?还是有利好?或者为了融资?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316479859359816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501506464598626","authorId":"3501506464598626","name":"AsyncMan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433f1f4149b891d553398e44d4243c4c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"为了诱多,并且收割空头","text":"为了诱多,并且收割空头","html":"为了诱多,并且收割空头"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316124287938768,"gmtCreate":1718205184958,"gmtModify":1718205186046,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 以后这苹果手机起价还不得上万?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 以后这苹果手机起价还不得上万?","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 以后这苹果手机起价还不得上万?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316124287938768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316098804523256,"gmtCreate":1718199328347,"gmtModify":1718201702778,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 骗炮的态势啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 骗炮的态势啊","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 骗炮的态势啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316098804523256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315294534553648,"gmtCreate":1718007120209,"gmtModify":1718007122952,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"经营现金流-18亿,债务利息-18亿,回购还得好几个亿吧,那20亿现金怕是已经快花完了吧。还在这嘴硬,打肿脸皮充胖子,真要生意好的话,也不至于货卖出去拿不回来钱吧,应收帐款、存货继续创新高,都算资产呗,资产是真不少","listText":"经营现金流-18亿,债务利息-18亿,回购还得好几个亿吧,那20亿现金怕是已经快花完了吧。还在这嘴硬,打肿脸皮充胖子,真要生意好的话,也不至于货卖出去拿不回来钱吧,应收帐款、存货继续创新高,都算资产呗,资产是真不少","text":"经营现金流-18亿,债务利息-18亿,回购还得好几个亿吧,那20亿现金怕是已经快花完了吧。还在这嘴硬,打肿脸皮充胖子,真要生意好的话,也不至于货卖出去拿不回来钱吧,应收帐款、存货继续创新高,都算资产呗,资产是真不少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315294534553648","repostId":"2441715935","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2441715935","pubTimestamp":1717765299,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2441715935?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-07 21:01","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2441715935","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue an","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.</p></li><li><p>The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue and quadrupled adjusted EPS, indicating robust operating leverage.</p></li><li><p>SMCI demonstrates exemplary working capital management amid surging revenue, indicating high-quality strategic and tactical decision-making within the company.</p></li><li><p>My valuation analysis suggests that there is an 85% upside potential.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e678235f3d3a4c30f6900e649543eed9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>JHVEPhoto</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_3918742298\">Investment thesis</h2><p>My previous bullish thesis about Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) did not age well from the share price movement perspective. The stock plunged by around 23% since March 1, the broader market's dynamic was much better over the same period.</p><p>On the other hand, the stock market is a voting machine over the short term, as Warren Buffett said. Thus, if we look from the perspective of fundamentals and secular trends, my thesis keeps up well because SMCI continues demonstrating strength across all key fundamental criteria. The company delivered a strong quarter, the management's guidance improved, the demand for the company's offerings is booming and will likely stay elevated for longer. The stock became extremely undervalued after the last three months' weakness. All in all, I reiterate my "Strong Buy" rating for SMCI.</p><h2 id=\"id_1805109556\">Recent developments</h2><p>SMCI released its fiscal Q3 earnings on April 30, slightly missing revenue forecasts. On the other hand, the bottom-line beat was solid. Revenue tripled on a YoY basis and the adjusted EPS quadrupled. The fact that the bottom-line outpaced revenue growth is a strong bullish sign to me, indicating robust operating leverage of the company. Strong operating leverage is vital for investors because with a high probability, we can expect that future revenue growth will create more value for shareholders.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/659a3f2710188bc2b2a4832a8870bc19\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"205\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>The company's free cash flow [FCF] was negative in Q3 because the company invested heavily in inventory to meet surging demand. Despite negative FCF, SMCI's balance sheet is still a fortress, with $2 billion in cash. Total debt is lower than the cash balance and does not look significant compared to the $45 billion market cap. Liquidity metrics are in great shape, making SMCI well-equipped to continue investing in growth and meeting surging demand for its offerings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2cb7cedbfbd0b90e6688bfa4ac03fa2f\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>I do not consider growing inventory levels as a problem because the inventory balance's linear chart moves approximately in line with surging revenues. Moreover, according to the below chart, current inventory turnover days are lower than 2021-2022. Therefore, working capital management is robust in SMCI, which is a quite challenging task when revenue grows exponentially. Therefore, I praise the management for its exceptional capital allocation and working capital management.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8282517a340fb95d853265fb3146c9ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts</p><p></p><p>The management also raised its guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024. Fiscal Q4 earnings release is scheduled for August 8th, and there were 10 upward EPS revisions over the last 90 days. I pay a lot of attention to the sentiment because Wall Street analysts are reputable professionals with access to extensive data and analytics. Therefore, these ten upward EPS revisions mean to me that analysts see strong underlying business momentum.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7594a495b90fe7982127766d389b64ec\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"201\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>Revenue is expected to be $5.3 billion, 135% higher on a YoY basis. The adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.10, more than twice higher YoY. Sequential growth also looks impressive, with a 38% QoQ topline growth and a 22% QoQ increase in adjusted EPS. There are a few strong reasons that make me share the optimism of the company's management and among Wall Street analysts.</p><p>Nvidia's latest staggering earnings together with strong guidance is the number one reason that makes me bullish about SMCI's prospects in the foreseeable future. The two companies have a strong technological partnership and SMCI is really rapid in introducing new products which are compatible with NVDA's solutions.</p><p>For example, on June 4, SMCI introduced rack scale plug-and-play liquid-cooled AI SuperClusters for NVIDIA Blackwell and NVIDIA HGX H100/H200. Let me remind you, that NVDA presented its Blackwell family on March 18, 2024. This means that it took less than three months for SMCI to upgrade its products to match the new features of the Blackwell platform. I am not an expert in GPUs and AI servers, but SMCI's pace of adapting to NVIDIA's developments is staggering and likely gives it a strong competitive advantage.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afa1c83911aba8e2b8abee8c1d67155f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"/></p><p>SMCI's latest earnings presentation</p><p></p><p>Another reason why I am bullish is that technological cloud giants are boosting their investments in data centers, meaning that the demand for AI servers' hardware will remain elevated for longer. Amazon's (AMZN) AWS recently announced that it will invest up to $35 billion in Virginia data centers by 2040. The world's leading cloud company not only invests in the U.S. data centers but also expands internationally. AWS also recently announced that it will invest around 16 billion euros in data centers across Spain, and there are also plans to invest in Italian data centers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) are also investing billions in data centers and AI startups. If you type "Microsoft/Google plan to invest billions in data center" into your search engine, you will see dozens of news articles about these giants planning to invest heavily in data centers worldwide. Therefore, I expect the demand for AI servers to be strong over the next several years.</p><h2 id=\"id_3119923319\">Valuation update</h2><p>SMCI rallied by 258% over the last twelve months and by 182% YTD. Valuation ratios are high compared to historical averages and the sector median. On the other hand, SMCI has strong AI exposure, which is not incorporated in historical averages. Moreover, not all sector companies have the same exposure to AI. Therefore, comparing SMCI's multiples to the sector median and historical averages appears to be unfair in current circumstances. Therefore, let me compare SMCI's valuation ratios to other hot AI stocks like NVDA and AMD. They are not peers or competitors, but all three are perceived as the major AI darlings.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee6b5ac9f13066b4175a9d91b0d329ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>SMCI is not only cheaper than NVDA but also substantially cheaper compared to AMD, a company facing several fundamental challenges. Therefore, from valuation ratios, SMCI looks attractively valued to me.</p><p>I consider the discounted cash flow [DCF] approach to be the most reliable for aggressive growth stocks. SMCI's total debt is insignificant compared to its market cap. Therefore, I use the cost of equity as a discount rate. Cost of equity is calculated below using the CAPM formula. All assumptions for my CAPM calculations are publicly available on the Internet.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/db95e6be02ea478d5f42673365e055e5\" tg-width=\"345\" tg-height=\"116\"/></p><p>Author's calculations</p><p></p><p>Thus, the model will be discounted using an 11.93% discount rate. I rely on consensus revenue estimates, which are available for the entire next decade, projecting a 22.8% CAGR. On a TTM basis, SMCI's FCF margin was negative due to heavy investments in inventory to meet surging demand. Therefore, for the base year, I incorporate a zero FCF margin. The adjusted EPS is expected by consensus to jump by 101.4% in FY2024 and by 42% in FY2025. Therefore, I think that incorporating at least 100 basis points yearly expansion for FCF margin is conservative enough.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/af716ae994a0ba0003f3ebba1a4ebdf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>With all these assumptions, my DCF model suggests that the business's fair value is $84 billion. This is 85% higher than the current market capitalization, meaning that the stock is substantially undervalued.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12f549682c6e3756bc3c690094324e5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\"/></p><p>Author's calculations</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2759626987\">Risks to consider</h2><p>The substantial volatility of recent months in most AI-exposed stocks shows that the "AI hangover" can be tough. SMCI itself is an extremely volatile stock, with its last month's share price range spanning between around $750 and $950. Investors who eventually decide to opt in should be ready for this extreme volatility. For a stock like SMCI sharp downside swings are normal as well. If you are not ready to tolerate this roller coaster, I recommend staying away and seeking less volatile opportunities.</p><p>When we speak about the overall AI hardware infrastructure market, we have to realize that growth is never linear. While I am highly confident that generative AI is a true disruptive technology that will eventually become the new golden standard, the industry will certainly face challenges during its growth path. Therefore, SMCI's revenue and earnings will also experience some cyclicality in the future, and these temporary dips in demand are difficult to predict. Potential investors have to understand that SMCI will not double its revenue every year, and some phases of revenue growth deceleration or even stagnation are inevitable. However, these will likely be temporary slowdowns before new growth waves.</p><h2 id=\"id_631941744\">Bottom line</h2><p>To conclude, SMCI's stock is still a "Strong Buy". The stock is extremely cheap based on my DCF analysis, despite the fundamentals improving substantially. Recent NVDA's earnings release suggests that AI momentum is far from cooling, which also adds to my optimism about SMCI.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Super Micro Computer: Time To Load Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuper Micro Computer: Time To Load Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-07 21:01 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1 Acc SGD-H","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4543":"AI","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","SMCI":"超微电脑","BK4514":"搜索引擎","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0310800379.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global A Acc SGD","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0171293334.USD":"贝莱德英国基金A2"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697738-super-micro-computer-time-to-load-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2441715935","content_text":"Super Micro Computer stock has dropped 23% since March 1, but the dip makes no sense as the company's fundamentals and secular trends remain immense.The company's Q3 earnings showed tripled revenue and quadrupled adjusted EPS, indicating robust operating leverage.SMCI demonstrates exemplary working capital management amid surging revenue, indicating high-quality strategic and tactical decision-making within the company.My valuation analysis suggests that there is an 85% upside potential.JHVEPhotoInvestment thesisMy previous bullish thesis about Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) did not age well from the share price movement perspective. The stock plunged by around 23% since March 1, the broader market's dynamic was much better over the same period.On the other hand, the stock market is a voting machine over the short term, as Warren Buffett said. Thus, if we look from the perspective of fundamentals and secular trends, my thesis keeps up well because SMCI continues demonstrating strength across all key fundamental criteria. The company delivered a strong quarter, the management's guidance improved, the demand for the company's offerings is booming and will likely stay elevated for longer. The stock became extremely undervalued after the last three months' weakness. All in all, I reiterate my \"Strong Buy\" rating for SMCI.Recent developmentsSMCI released its fiscal Q3 earnings on April 30, slightly missing revenue forecasts. On the other hand, the bottom-line beat was solid. Revenue tripled on a YoY basis and the adjusted EPS quadrupled. The fact that the bottom-line outpaced revenue growth is a strong bullish sign to me, indicating robust operating leverage of the company. Strong operating leverage is vital for investors because with a high probability, we can expect that future revenue growth will create more value for shareholders.Seeking AlphaThe company's free cash flow [FCF] was negative in Q3 because the company invested heavily in inventory to meet surging demand. Despite negative FCF, SMCI's balance sheet is still a fortress, with $2 billion in cash. Total debt is lower than the cash balance and does not look significant compared to the $45 billion market cap. Liquidity metrics are in great shape, making SMCI well-equipped to continue investing in growth and meeting surging demand for its offerings.Seeking AlphaI do not consider growing inventory levels as a problem because the inventory balance's linear chart moves approximately in line with surging revenues. Moreover, according to the below chart, current inventory turnover days are lower than 2021-2022. Therefore, working capital management is robust in SMCI, which is a quite challenging task when revenue grows exponentially. Therefore, I praise the management for its exceptional capital allocation and working capital management.Data by YChartsThe management also raised its guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full fiscal year 2024. Fiscal Q4 earnings release is scheduled for August 8th, and there were 10 upward EPS revisions over the last 90 days. I pay a lot of attention to the sentiment because Wall Street analysts are reputable professionals with access to extensive data and analytics. Therefore, these ten upward EPS revisions mean to me that analysts see strong underlying business momentum.Seeking AlphaRevenue is expected to be $5.3 billion, 135% higher on a YoY basis. The adjusted EPS is forecasted at $8.10, more than twice higher YoY. Sequential growth also looks impressive, with a 38% QoQ topline growth and a 22% QoQ increase in adjusted EPS. There are a few strong reasons that make me share the optimism of the company's management and among Wall Street analysts.Nvidia's latest staggering earnings together with strong guidance is the number one reason that makes me bullish about SMCI's prospects in the foreseeable future. The two companies have a strong technological partnership and SMCI is really rapid in introducing new products which are compatible with NVDA's solutions.For example, on June 4, SMCI introduced rack scale plug-and-play liquid-cooled AI SuperClusters for NVIDIA Blackwell and NVIDIA HGX H100/H200. Let me remind you, that NVDA presented its Blackwell family on March 18, 2024. This means that it took less than three months for SMCI to upgrade its products to match the new features of the Blackwell platform. I am not an expert in GPUs and AI servers, but SMCI's pace of adapting to NVIDIA's developments is staggering and likely gives it a strong competitive advantage.SMCI's latest earnings presentationAnother reason why I am bullish is that technological cloud giants are boosting their investments in data centers, meaning that the demand for AI servers' hardware will remain elevated for longer. Amazon's (AMZN) AWS recently announced that it will invest up to $35 billion in Virginia data centers by 2040. The world's leading cloud company not only invests in the U.S. data centers but also expands internationally. AWS also recently announced that it will invest around 16 billion euros in data centers across Spain, and there are also plans to invest in Italian data centers. Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) are also investing billions in data centers and AI startups. If you type \"Microsoft/Google plan to invest billions in data center\" into your search engine, you will see dozens of news articles about these giants planning to invest heavily in data centers worldwide. Therefore, I expect the demand for AI servers to be strong over the next several years.Valuation updateSMCI rallied by 258% over the last twelve months and by 182% YTD. Valuation ratios are high compared to historical averages and the sector median. On the other hand, SMCI has strong AI exposure, which is not incorporated in historical averages. Moreover, not all sector companies have the same exposure to AI. Therefore, comparing SMCI's multiples to the sector median and historical averages appears to be unfair in current circumstances. Therefore, let me compare SMCI's valuation ratios to other hot AI stocks like NVDA and AMD. They are not peers or competitors, but all three are perceived as the major AI darlings.Seeking AlphaSMCI is not only cheaper than NVDA but also substantially cheaper compared to AMD, a company facing several fundamental challenges. Therefore, from valuation ratios, SMCI looks attractively valued to me.I consider the discounted cash flow [DCF] approach to be the most reliable for aggressive growth stocks. SMCI's total debt is insignificant compared to its market cap. Therefore, I use the cost of equity as a discount rate. Cost of equity is calculated below using the CAPM formula. All assumptions for my CAPM calculations are publicly available on the Internet.Author's calculationsThus, the model will be discounted using an 11.93% discount rate. I rely on consensus revenue estimates, which are available for the entire next decade, projecting a 22.8% CAGR. On a TTM basis, SMCI's FCF margin was negative due to heavy investments in inventory to meet surging demand. Therefore, for the base year, I incorporate a zero FCF margin. The adjusted EPS is expected by consensus to jump by 101.4% in FY2024 and by 42% in FY2025. Therefore, I think that incorporating at least 100 basis points yearly expansion for FCF margin is conservative enough.Seeking AlphaWith all these assumptions, my DCF model suggests that the business's fair value is $84 billion. This is 85% higher than the current market capitalization, meaning that the stock is substantially undervalued.Author's calculationsRisks to considerThe substantial volatility of recent months in most AI-exposed stocks shows that the \"AI hangover\" can be tough. SMCI itself is an extremely volatile stock, with its last month's share price range spanning between around $750 and $950. Investors who eventually decide to opt in should be ready for this extreme volatility. For a stock like SMCI sharp downside swings are normal as well. If you are not ready to tolerate this roller coaster, I recommend staying away and seeking less volatile opportunities.When we speak about the overall AI hardware infrastructure market, we have to realize that growth is never linear. While I am highly confident that generative AI is a true disruptive technology that will eventually become the new golden standard, the industry will certainly face challenges during its growth path. Therefore, SMCI's revenue and earnings will also experience some cyclicality in the future, and these temporary dips in demand are difficult to predict. Potential investors have to understand that SMCI will not double its revenue every year, and some phases of revenue growth deceleration or even stagnation are inevitable. However, these will likely be temporary slowdowns before new growth waves.Bottom lineTo conclude, SMCI's stock is still a \"Strong Buy\". The stock is extremely cheap based on my DCF analysis, despite the fundamentals improving substantially. Recent NVDA's earnings release suggests that AI momentum is far from cooling, which also adds to my optimism about SMCI.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":184,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314324049182944,"gmtCreate":1717770210245,"gmtModify":1717770263288,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 最近超微电脑把股价控制在750-800之间,不会是要在这增发融资吧?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 最近超微电脑把股价控制在750-800之间,不会是要在这增发融资吧?","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 最近超微电脑把股价控制在750-800之间,不会是要在这增发融资吧?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314324049182944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485385939767603","authorId":"3485385939767603","name":"求美股稳定一点","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"其实可以啊[笑哭]狂增发 现在这批公司没现金了","text":"其实可以啊[笑哭]狂增发 现在这批公司没现金了","html":"其实可以啊[笑哭]狂增发 现在这批公司没现金了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314296700404024,"gmtCreate":1717763428475,"gmtModify":1717763431031,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"发一篇文章挣多少钱,同一篇文章一直发,如果实在没有消息还可以发天气预报嘛","listText":"发一篇文章挣多少钱,同一篇文章一直发,如果实在没有消息还可以发天气预报嘛","text":"发一篇文章挣多少钱,同一篇文章一直发,如果实在没有消息还可以发天气预报嘛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314296700404024","repostId":"2441816310","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2441816310","pubTimestamp":1717739364,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2441816310?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-07 13:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI数据中心需求爆发 超微电脑乐观预测:明年液冷采用率将达30%丨从华尔街到陆家嘴","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2441816310","media":"第一财经","summary":"超微电脑首席执行官梁见后预计,未来12个月全球15%的新数据中心部署将使用其直接液冷技术,次年这一比例将达到30%。在未来一两年,该行业的直接液冷技术采用率将达到30%,高于过去30年的1%,这将创造另一个大曲棍球棒增长曲线。与传统的风冷相比,直接液冷更经济环保。梁见后表示,超微电脑可以在一个月内制造1000个配备液冷的机架,并在两到四周内发货。","content":"<div>\n<p>超微电脑首席执行官梁见后预计,未来12个月全球15%的新数据中心部署将使用其直接液冷技术,次年这一比例将达到30%。在未来一两年,该行业的直接液冷技术采用率将达到30%,高于过去30年的1%,这将创造另一个大曲棍球棒增长曲线。与传统的风冷相比,直接液冷更经济环保。梁见后表示,超微电脑可以在一个月内制造1000个配备液冷的机架,并在两到四周内发货。(文章来源:第一财经)</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202406073099131650.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI数据中心需求爆发 超微电脑乐观预测:明年液冷采用率将达30%丨从华尔街到陆家嘴</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI数据中心需求爆发 超微电脑乐观预测:明年液冷采用率将达30%丨从华尔街到陆家嘴\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-07 13:49 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202406073099131650.html><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>超微电脑首席执行官梁见后预计,未来12个月全球15%的新数据中心部署将使用其直接液冷技术,次年这一比例将达到30%。在未来一两年,该行业的直接液冷技术采用率将达到30%,高于过去30年的1%,这将创造另一个大曲棍球棒增长曲线。与传统的风冷相比,直接液冷更经济环保。梁见后表示,超微电脑可以在一个月内制造1000个配备液冷的机架,并在两到四周内发货。(文章来源:第一财经)</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202406073099131650.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 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就跟苹果的用户也只有很小一部分用小米. 特斯拉下个目标专注无人驾驶环节,小米的优势叫整合产能,但是小米量产的问题都还没解决. 所以你的分析就是看着很有道理,但是p用都没","html":"你看马斯克在乎吗? 人家直接4月份加价. 特斯拉的受众群体只有很小的一部分接受小米产品. 就跟苹果的用户也只有很小一部分用小米. 特斯拉下个目标专注无人驾驶环节,小米的优势叫整合产能,但是小米量产的问题都还没解决. 所以你的分析就是看着很有道理,但是p用都没"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311417523208392,"gmtCreate":1717049643491,"gmtModify":1717059763333,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达的股价完全靠回购在撑着,现在这个股价,如果韭菜接续不上,英伟达的回购已经捉襟见肘,现在已经顾头不顾腚了,看看超级电脑已经扛不住了,只能通过拆股和加大回购来力撑局面,也许英伟达还有向上的可能,但是铡刀落下来是大概率事件,2亿哥已经开始撤退了,大机构跑路也是早晚的事,不知道这次下跌会不会又成就另外一个比尔黄呢?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达的股价完全靠回购在撑着,现在这个股价,如果韭菜接续不上,英伟达的回购已经捉襟见肘,现在已经顾头不顾腚了,看看超级电脑已经扛不住了,只能通过拆股和加大回购来力撑局面,也许英伟达还有向上的可能,但是铡刀落下来是大概率事件,2亿哥已经开始撤退了,大机构跑路也是早晚的事,不知道这次下跌会不会又成就另外一个比尔黄呢?","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达的股价完全靠回购在撑着,现在这个股价,如果韭菜接续不上,英伟达的回购已经捉襟见肘,现在已经顾头不顾腚了,看看超级电脑已经扛不住了,只能通过拆股和加大回购来力撑局面,也许英伟达还有向上的可能,但是铡刀落下来是大概率事件,2亿哥已经开始撤退了,大机构跑路也是早晚的事,不知道这次下跌会不会又成就另外一个比尔黄呢?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311417523208392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"312848655464430","authorId":"312848655464430","name":"好奇怪的名字","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f81810a251f1dc1d54532d18cdec30ce","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这个简单的怀疑,阴谋论而已。美股你要货真价实来个让人信服的报告,你先空,顺便号召大家一起空他。如果大家都听你的,你就发达了 [开心] [开心] [开心]","text":"这个简单的怀疑,阴谋论而已。美股你要货真价实来个让人信服的报告,你先空,顺便号召大家一起空他。如果大家都听你的,你就发达了 [开心] [开心] [开心]","html":"这个简单的怀疑,阴谋论而已。美股你要货真价实来个让人信服的报告,你先空,顺便号召大家一起空他。如果大家都听你的,你就发达了 [开心] [开心] [开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188123636175008,"gmtCreate":1686954220935,"gmtModify":1686954222141,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>贾总终于还是开出了核动力韭菜收割机,他说:我要收割你们,谁赞成谁反对?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>贾总终于还是开出了核动力韭菜收割机,他说:我要收割你们,谁赞成谁反对?","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 贾总终于还是开出了核动力韭菜收割机,他说:我要收割你们,谁赞成谁反对?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188123636175008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546699087274420","authorId":"3546699087274420","name":"曾经沧海01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"既然买了就坚定支持,既然不看好就认赔出局。我认为FF发行认股权筹得资金以生产是利多的好事。FF现金即将告罄,如果能够筹得现金对股民的信心是一个巨大的支持。","text":"既然买了就坚定支持,既然不看好就认赔出局。我认为FF发行认股权筹得资金以生产是利多的好事。FF现金即将告罄,如果能够筹得现金对股民的信心是一个巨大的支持。","html":"既然买了就坚定支持,既然不看好就认赔出局。我认为FF发行认股权筹得资金以生产是利多的好事。FF现金即将告罄,如果能够筹得现金对股民的信心是一个巨大的支持。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293483427537104,"gmtCreate":1712670759864,"gmtModify":1712725330663,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 完犊子了,特斯拉中国4月份第一周才交付不到两千辆,折合一个月不到8000辆,蔚来都比特斯拉卖得多,这是3月份的销量拔苗助长把韭菜都割完了吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 完犊子了,特斯拉中国4月份第一周才交付不到两千辆,折合一个月不到8000辆,蔚来都比特斯拉卖得多,这是3月份的销量拔苗助长把韭菜都割完了吗?","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 完犊子了,特斯拉中国4月份第一周才交付不到两千辆,折合一个月不到8000辆,蔚来都比特斯拉卖得多,这是3月份的销量拔苗助长把韭菜都割完了吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293483427537104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000287","authorId":"9000000000000287","name":"控盘坐庄最在行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ee5e3588a136bd78d10257e555173d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"特斯拉的销量在中国可能受到了一些挑战,但我认为不能就此得出特斯拉完犊子的结论。","text":"特斯拉的销量在中国可能受到了一些挑战,但我认为不能就此得出特斯拉完犊子的结论。","html":"特斯拉的销量在中国可能受到了一些挑战,但我认为不能就此得出特斯拉完犊子的结论。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825601451,"gmtCreate":1634220282510,"gmtModify":1634220710278,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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上头一句话就可以让你赔的倾家荡产"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":217385840169064,"gmtCreate":1694096703912,"gmtModify":1694097478958,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>庆幸自己提早两个月逃离老贾的魔掌,否则等到现在只能上天台了。短短一个来月账户又除以6。美国证监会是不是眼瞎,竟然让这么一群人在美股作恶","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ </a>庆幸自己提早两个月逃离老贾的魔掌,否则等到现在只能上天台了。短短一个来月账户又除以6。美国证监会是不是眼瞎,竟然让这么一群人在美股作恶","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 庆幸自己提早两个月逃离老贾的魔掌,否则等到现在只能上天台了。短短一个来月账户又除以6。美国证监会是不是眼瞎,竟然让这么一群人在美股作恶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/217385840169064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536703324014623","authorId":"3536703324014623","name":"虎牙哥俩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ececcfc7816da35962ed9dd6b249bbc9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"抓紧卖房加仓","text":"抓紧卖房加仓","html":"抓紧卖房加仓"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865964893,"gmtCreate":1632931904535,"gmtModify":1632933358021,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>增长个位数,强弩之末,今天要跌了","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$增长个位数,强弩之末,今天要跌了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312783703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568960461335424","authorId":"3568960461335424","name":"六六六六顺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d667d839058e0722f6e555c913ab474","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"你的数学怕是自学成材","text":"你的数学怕是自学成材","html":"你的数学怕是自学成材"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288796994863328,"gmtCreate":1711531524589,"gmtModify":1711534736922,"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 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