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笨小虎
2023-04-19
$TSLA 20230421 220.0 CALL$
没完没了!
笨小虎
2023-01-31
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
笨小虎
2022-12-15
新东方和俞敏洪值得尊重
俞敏洪今年让股民赚了大钱
笨小虎
2022-12-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
笨小虎
2022-12-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
每天都跌,什么鬼!
笨小虎
2022-11-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
没完没了的跌,艹!
笨小虎
2022-10-26
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
亚马逊还没公布财报,咋也跌成这个鬼样子?被谷歌和微软拖累也不至于这样吧
笨小虎
2022-10-04
$AAPL 20221007 155.0 CALL$
太菜了
笨小虎
2022-08-10
$NVDA 20220819 200.0 CALL$
什么情况!没底了是吧
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230421 220.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230421 220.0 CALL$ </a>没完没了!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230421 220.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230421 220.0 CALL$ </a>没完没了!","text":"$TSLA 20230421 220.0 CALL$ 没完没了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651247337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622303807,"gmtCreate":1675166701109,"gmtModify":1675166702000,"author":{"id":"3551827235621669","authorId":"3551827235621669","name":"笨小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7934e5a816087ee6c2f32e9242c1bda5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551827235621669","authorIdStr":"3551827235621669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622303807","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":623111332,"gmtCreate":1671114080927,"gmtModify":1671114082648,"author":{"id":"3551827235621669","authorId":"3551827235621669","name":"笨小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7934e5a816087ee6c2f32e9242c1bda5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551827235621669","authorIdStr":"3551827235621669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"新东方和俞敏洪值得尊重","listText":"新东方和俞敏洪值得尊重","text":"新东方和俞敏洪值得尊重","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623111332","repostId":"1139717344","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139717344","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671111303,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139717344?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-15 21:35","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"俞敏洪今年让股民赚了大钱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139717344","media":"36氪","summary":"最为熟悉的投资标的往往最容易被忽略,它来源于常识又取决于契机。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者:张子怡</p><p>最为熟悉的投资标的往往最容易被忽略,它来源于常识又取决于契机。</p><p>对于今年投资者而言,亏损是常态,回血更是艰难。港股下跌最多达16%,个人亏损幅度更甚。</p><p>林鹤成为例外,他曾高位入场,去年年初以25港元买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>(东方甄选母公司)股票,亏损一度超八成,而如今收益超百万。同样押注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>在线的另一投资人,以400万元成本,赚到2000多万。</p><p>“一辈子能遇到这样股票的机会很少,短短几个月股价翻了十几倍。它让我天天都在反思,多数人永远都在岸上看,敢于下注的人总是很少......”曾试图“抄底”新东方在线的朱生对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>总结道。</p><p>截止发稿时,新东方在线近一年的股价涨幅达705%,其股价最低跌到2.84港元,最高涨至46.8港元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6c97a17510781e8ab3fd2a2770aa96\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对于新东方在线和其投资者而言,这是坐过山车的一年,跌过低谷也登至顶峰。正因这种反差,有多位港股投资者告诉36氪:新东方在线是其今年手上最赚钱的股票,不仅弥补今年的投资亏损,盈利更是颇为可观。最少的有百万级收益,最多浮盈逾千万。</p><p>毕竟,去年7月“双减政策”落地后,无数教培机构业务顷刻间化为乌有,跨越教育行业数次周期的新东方也不外如是。只是无人能够料到,一年后,新东方在线因“东方甄选”直播间大火,股价随之暴涨,翻了7倍。</p><p>那么,为什么是新东方在线,这样一家基本业务骤然消失、股价暴跌不断、前路未明的企业,能够让如此多的人攫取到财富?为什么是这些投资者,除了选对标的的运气和投资的胆识,他们如何跨过行业大跌的周期,在今年实现盈利?</p><p><b>深跌到绝望后还有希望吗?</b></p><p>或许林鹤也没有想到,八年前经历过的股灾,在冥冥之中为他埋下了坚持投资新东方在线的伏笔。</p><p>去年1月,新东方在线股价还徘徊在20港元左右,林鹤第一次出手买入。此后连续7个月,他每个月都会加仓。“当时一开始买的时候成本高,25港元左右,所以之后一有钱就会买新东方在线。当时跟我一起买股票的人,百分之七八十的人都走了......。”林鹤说。</p><p>不走才奇怪,整个2021年,新东方在线股价跌了81.04%。25元入市的林鹤不仅站在股价高点上,还面临着投资亏损超8成的现实,要回本得翻4-5倍。</p><p>在跌跌不休的股价面前,自觉赌性极强的林鹤留守下来,“我2015年开始炒股,一入场就经历了股灾......这几年炒港股也没有赚到过什么钱,百分之四五十的跌幅对我不算什么了......”</p><p>戏谑的是,投资新东方在线时,处于创业阶段的林鹤正想调整投资风格,从过往“抄底”变为长线投资,投资一些在他看来资质好、在成长期的公司,新东方在线年轻化的管理团队是他投资的重要原因。“他们总裁跟我差不多年龄,当初想花一些钱跟着他们学习如何管理企业,如果股价下跌,就当缴了‘学费’。”</p><p>显然,“学费”缴了许久,不想“抄底”的他变成被动“抄底。</p><p>抄底方式虽有不同,底层逻辑却有相似之处。朱生属于主动“抄底”进入者,作为自媒体博主的他,了解且关注着不同企业的管理者,“管理层的道德水准”、创始人的价值观是他在投资时重要的判断标准。</p><p>新东方在线在去年下半年:裁员超4万人、退租教学点达1500个,捐献课桌椅仅8万套予乡村学校......一系列的新闻叠加下跌的股价让朱生决定入场。</p><p>“我比较欣赏俞敏洪,这些新闻能看出他是负责任的企业家,跟那些跑路的企业不同,我觉得俞敏洪本人至少值得100亿元的市值......”</p><p>朱生在今年2月底到3月之间开始买入新东方在线,公司股价在当时已经跌至4.88港元/股左右,朱生买入十几万股,耗资在50万港元到40万港元之间。此前俞敏洪的增持行为也让他判断:新东方在线的股价或许已经到了底部,创始人对这家公司有感情也有信心。</p><p>对于多数国人而言,俞敏洪是被时代创造且让人耳熟能详的企业家,他和他的新东方,连同一起创造的留学热潮也让人记忆深刻。“学英语”是新东方的重要标识,这一切显然要在2021年7月之后必须被改变。</p><p>不到三个月的时间,俞敏洪为新东方转型想好了新的发展方向,这条道路内生于其多年来一直关切和忧虑的议题,在《十三邀》第五季中已有端倪,他提到最多的关键词是“农村”,思考如何对农村提供短暂却重要的帮助。</p><p>2021年11月7日,俞敏洪在直播时宣布,新东方未来计划成立一个大型的农业平台,自己将会和几百位老师通过直播带货,整合上下游资源,帮助<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>销售,让农民转型,让青年农民愿意回到农村,让更多的留守儿童能在父母的陪伴下成长,支持乡村振兴事业。</p><p>新东方内部在去年9、10月开始讨论转型直播带货。如今大火的董宇辉当初在得知要转型直播带货后决定离职,彼时,新东方在线执行董事、行政总裁孙东旭挽留他说:“困难的时候,要相信团队凝结在一起,走着走着,兴许就有方向了。”</p><p>可见,即便是孙东旭,也不那么确定直播带货的道路究竟能否行得通。甚至,有媒体也不大看好。《经济日报》就曾刊发过一则题为《新东方不应照搬李佳琦》的评论文章,文中提到“作为校外教育培训行业的龙头企业之一,新东方转型具有风向标意义。如果只是从一个挣快钱的行业跳到另一个挣快钱的行业,恐怕不是最佳示范”......</p><p>新东方在线转型之路被议论纷纷之际,林鹤成为“东方甄选”直播间最早一批粉丝。作为投资者,他想看看新东方转型的直播带货道路到底如何发展。</p><p>对于外界而言,俞敏洪的任何行为都将同上市公司紧密的连接在一起。为了不辜负投资人,俞敏洪也以真金白银做了投票。去年11月中旬,他在两天时间里斥资2499万港元,合计增持了新东方在线357.2万股,增持后持股比例由4.63%上升至4.98%。</p><p>俞敏洪的增持行为一度拉升新东方在线的股价,仅11月30日,公司股价单日涨幅达90.06%,股价从开盘价4.19港元/股涨至8.12港元/股。这个增持行为也让林鹤坚定了他继续持有股票的信心。</p><p>哪怕最初观看东方甄选时,他心中没底。“直播购物这条路我当时也看不懂,但我看好做农业的方向,我创业也是这个方向,国家肯定支持;而且俞敏洪本人,60岁还愿意带领企业共同创业,无论这件事成不成功,我也找不到第二个跟新东方在线类似的投资标的;公司的管理团队也很年轻、股权清晰。股价下跌的时候,俞敏洪却做增持,他肯定对新东方有更多的发展想法,我跟着他们一起走,相当于做风投。”林鹤对当时投资策略复盘道。</p><p><b>股价坐火箭,一周暴涨近7倍</b></p><p>逆风翻盘的道路艰辛与曲折亦是常态。在东方甄选直播的半年时间中,新东方在线的股价下跌近4成。磕磕绊绊摸索着直播带货之路的新东方在线,困在低谷中。</p><p>5月31日,新东方在线开盘后,股价一度跌至上市以来的最低点2.84港元/股。东方甄选的直播间已经不温不火开播大半年,销售额也不在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>内部排名榜的前100名。</p><p>秉承着“风投”心态的林鹤已是东方甄选最早的铁杆粉丝,每天晚上,他会和其他粉丝在群里讨论直播间的效果、可改进的地方,给董宇辉和孙东旭留言,讨论直播的方向。</p><p>“那会他们都挺焦虑,直播间人数很少,效果特差,我们常常留言鼓励他们,就连直播间的灯光怎么打我们都会跟他们一起讨论......直播间粉丝刚破1000的时候,大家都很激动。”</p><p>此时,林鹤已经持有新东方在线一年半。朱生则在新东方在线股价跌到3港元左右时,选择离场,他卖出持有的一半股票。</p><p>这成为他最为后悔的事情。“五块左右入场已经很低了,结果一直在跌,跌得我真的很烦。股价波动那么大,一波动的时候人就会恐慌,就容易做错。”</p><p>在朱生抛售不到一个月后,东方甄选直播间突然爆火,新东方在线股价迎来暴涨。</p><p>6月9日,东方甄选直播间粉丝总量破百万,7天后粉丝量突破一千万。巨量引擎数据显示,6月13日,东方甄选直播间单场最高观看量771.7万人,10-13日单场销售额连续破千万。</p><p>飞涨的销售额也让股价在一周时间里涨幅达554.46%,从起始收盘价4.37港元/股涨至结束收盘价28.6港元/股。</p><p>短短一周,新东方在线股价飙升,直播间引来越来越多的关注。没有人知道,东方甄选的热度是昙花一现还是能够长久支撑,以及仅靠直播间又能否持续支撑起公司股价。</p><p>先退出的是二股东<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>。6月15日,腾讯以均价9.6港元卖出3561.25万股;第二日,再卖出3899.14万股。两次减持后,腾讯的持股比例从9.04%骤降至1.58%。几乎是清仓操作。</p><p>后看空的是券商。6月17日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>发布下调新东方在线评级的研报:“新东方在线当前估值需要对应直播带货业务近3000万元的日均GMV及35倍市盈率,目前估值过于激进。”</p><p>“那一周股价每天都上涨的非常快,你基本没有考虑的时间。我眼睁睁看着股价从三块涨到十块,我身边所有朋友都告诉我先卖再买,包括我最早加的粉丝群,大家都在讨论怎么办。我心里肯定说服不了自己,怕卖便宜了,毕竟我持仓的成本高......”林鹤说道。</p><p>新东方在线股价的持续下跌没有让林鹤焦虑与迷茫,反而是暴涨的股价让他手足无措。</p><p>6月20日,林鹤选择卖出股票离场,持有新东方在线一年半后,经历过股价最低点时刻,他获得了172万元的收益。</p><p>在林鹤退场期间,职业投资者杨天入场,他在股价9港元左右买了10%,第二天股价仍在上涨之际他加仓至50%。杨天加仓的信心来源其看重东方甄选直播间的稀缺性,相信股价将继续上涨。</p><p><b>投资企业家而不只是投资企业</b></p><p>新东方在线的股价没有辜负杨天的信心,它甚至没有辜负下半年迟到的入场者。</p><p>在股价暴涨一周后,新东方在线从二十港元再度滑落至十几港元,财务出身的丽莎即在16港元左右价格买入,朱生也在这时再次买入。无论入局早晚抑或反复,他们都将分享到投资新东方在线所带来的财富。股价和东方甄选直播间的热度一样,都在下半年乘风飞起。</p><p>6月1日到12月13日,公司起始收盘价为3.7港元/股,结束收盘价达42.6港元/股,区间涨幅达1051.35%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">海通证券</a>发布报告称,自2022年6月以来,东方甄选抖音号累计GMV达41.1亿元。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601108\">财通证券</a>测算,新东方在线直播电商业务的总GMV预计将在2023年达到99.94亿,并带来约26.7亿的收入。</p><p>东方甄选开创了以“知识带货”为主的内容向卖货方式,彼时淘宝头部主播处于停播阶段,抖音头部主播交个朋友直播间核心主播罗永浩退出创业,直播电商市场流量十分分散。“学英语”曾是新东方在线起家发展的基石,又再次演变为“双语卖货”的特色内容直播形式。</p><p>杨天一度满仓持有新东方在线,他满仓的勇气来自于看重东方甄选直播间的稀缺性,在观看直播与参与购物的过程让他感知到:东方甄选要做得不只是直播间,而是农业科技平台,在热度火爆的半年时间中,自有产品品类不断增多,供应链搭建迅速。</p><p>根据蝉妈妈数据大致估算,10 月东方甄选自营品数量占比约为 20%-30%,GMV(预计)占比约为 30%-40%。公司每月新增 5-10 款自营商品,甄选自营系列商品主要为农产品类。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528de24932f05a4fbbafc9cfd53ae0e1\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4fb1bf59336d228f003f0bdb459d1\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“农产品的消费频率是很高的,而且东方甄选自有产品的复购率很不错,一年能复购十几次甚至几十次。直播带货属于轻资产业务,它未来的毛利率会很高,而且他们也不满足于这个,自营品牌的搭建、直播账号(指“美丽生活”)矩阵的探索,都让它更有发展空间。”杨天分析道。</p><p>丽莎从自己参与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>的经历中看到新东方在线可能性。“他们的团队很成熟,这半年以来发展得很顺利,这在创业公司中很难得。直播业务上不断突破,形式越来越多样,内容直播的方式也能留住不爱刷抖音的人。”</p><p>丽莎认为,东方甄选直播间的爆火也因切中了城市中产阶级消费降级的趋势。“原来我会买七八块的进口牛奶给孩子喝,现在在直播间买三四块的国产有机牛奶,它的品质也很好呀。”</p><p>同时,新东方在线过往做在线教育的经历以及人才储备让丽莎更有信心。“原来新东方在线做在线教育,教学与带货讲解具有一定相似性,多年的教育经历里,它有庞大的人才库和培训体系,主播永远不会缺,潜力会很大。”</p><p>直播数据造假很有可能成为直播电商企业的阿喀琉斯之踵,而在这里杨天、丽莎和林鹤都相信新东方在线管理层不买流量的承诺。</p><p>“俞敏洪和孙东旭都说过不会买流量,企业这么多年累积的信誉,我相信他们可以做到,如果做不到,这也不是俞敏洪了。”杨天说,</p><p>36氪访谈过的投资者中,对于新东方在线的投资绕不开俞敏洪本人。</p><p>投资大佬段永平曾写道:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d67aca388e7175dde2ccea082a6664d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>对于新东方在线的投资,朱生事后曾反复复盘,在看来,由于自己的不确定,对新东方在线的投资收益从潜在的数百万元变成数十万元。“这真的是一个很大的教训。”</p><p>最初他因为认可俞敏洪作为企业家“创造价值”的能力购买股票,在股价暴跌之际,俞敏洪并没有改变,做直播带货的方向也没有变。即便新东方在线股价上半年暴跌不止,但也不会出现清盘的可能。</p><p>“投资一开始考验你的眼光,中间考验你的心态。我以为我的心态要比眼光好,事实证明,我高估了自己的心态,中间的操作违背自己的初衷,这样的投资标的你一生中,又能遇到几次呢?”</p><p>对于杨九和丽莎而言,属于他们的收获从6月才刚刚开始。对新东方在线投资的半年时间,丽莎实现了七位数、超百万元的收益,弥补了其他股票的投资亏损。</p><p>杨天浮盈收益更多,由于其帮他人也打理一部分股票,他告诉36氪:“现在仓位浮盈的规模可以买得了深圳一套房。我自己的话,收益没有那么多,毕竟上半年有亏损,当然是有赚。”在深圳,面积稍大的房子要千万元起步。</p><p>林鹤在6月卖出过一部分后,又再次入场。对新东方在线的投资也弥补了他今年其他的投资亏损,四次卖出的总收益达258.44万元,目前的账面浮盈亦有百万元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d89086d959a9edca0a628e7553ee85\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>造富的故事不胜枚举。有网友写道:“之前关注了一个网友,400万资金在新东方在线,赚了2000万,目前持仓市值2500万......这个人牛就牛在,新东方暴涨到30元时,他在28元卖了,预测15元接回,后来跌到15元接回,现在涨到了40元,真牛。”</p><p>无论是对于投资者还是资本市场,新东方在线是今年颇具传奇色彩的公司。它经历股价最低的时节,也在短短一年的时间内跑出新的业务方向。</p><p>它甚至给投资者带来一种全新的投资体验。林鹤、丽莎、朱生和杨天他们原先都不看抖音也不参与直播购物,东方甄选改变了他们的生活方式。林鹤和丽莎的日常用品不再去大型商超购买,而是全部购自于东方甄选直播间。</p><p>如今,林鹤每天早上都会看二十分钟东方甄选的直播,每周会定期在直播间买书也会看同主播的排班,“不只是投资了他们的股票才看直播,而是对他们有很深的感情。”</p><p>林鹤目前持有的港股股票中,新东方在线占其80%的仓位,剩余20%的股票仅是停牌或被踢出港股通的僵尸股。</p><p>杨天也十分满意对于新东方在线的投资。“不仅仅是挣钱的原因,而是你很好它,它也很符合你的期待。</p><p>在商业世界中,困境反转的故事少之又少。对于企业而言,困境不一定是暂时的,反转的核心在于要尊重商业运转的逻辑,尊重商业的法则,唯有如此,才有可能从绝望中找到希望。</p><p><i>(应采访对象要求,文中林鹤、朱生、丽莎、杨天均为化名。)</i></p></body></html>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n俞敏洪今年让股民赚了大钱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 21:35 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h09dut6uSKe6JM66RmJ-KQ><strong>36氪</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:张子怡最为熟悉的投资标的往往最容易被忽略,它来源于常识又取决于契机。对于今年投资者而言,亏损是常态,回血更是艰难。港股下跌最多达16%,个人亏损幅度更甚。林鹤成为例外,他曾高位入场,去年年初以25港元买入新东方在线(东方甄选母公司)股票,亏损一度超八成,而如今收益超百万。同样押注新东方在线的另一投资人,以400万元成本,赚到2000多万。“一辈子能遇到这样股票的机会很少,短短几个月股价翻了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h09dut6uSKe6JM66RmJ-KQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df11b9e96e31cff1bc6711e946b5366","relate_stocks":{"01797":"东方甄选","09901":"新东方-S","EDU":"新东方"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h09dut6uSKe6JM66RmJ-KQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139717344","content_text":"作者:张子怡最为熟悉的投资标的往往最容易被忽略,它来源于常识又取决于契机。对于今年投资者而言,亏损是常态,回血更是艰难。港股下跌最多达16%,个人亏损幅度更甚。林鹤成为例外,他曾高位入场,去年年初以25港元买入新东方在线(东方甄选母公司)股票,亏损一度超八成,而如今收益超百万。同样押注新东方在线的另一投资人,以400万元成本,赚到2000多万。“一辈子能遇到这样股票的机会很少,短短几个月股价翻了十几倍。它让我天天都在反思,多数人永远都在岸上看,敢于下注的人总是很少......”曾试图“抄底”新东方在线的朱生对36氪总结道。截止发稿时,新东方在线近一年的股价涨幅达705%,其股价最低跌到2.84港元,最高涨至46.8港元。对于新东方在线和其投资者而言,这是坐过山车的一年,跌过低谷也登至顶峰。正因这种反差,有多位港股投资者告诉36氪:新东方在线是其今年手上最赚钱的股票,不仅弥补今年的投资亏损,盈利更是颇为可观。最少的有百万级收益,最多浮盈逾千万。毕竟,去年7月“双减政策”落地后,无数教培机构业务顷刻间化为乌有,跨越教育行业数次周期的新东方也不外如是。只是无人能够料到,一年后,新东方在线因“东方甄选”直播间大火,股价随之暴涨,翻了7倍。那么,为什么是新东方在线,这样一家基本业务骤然消失、股价暴跌不断、前路未明的企业,能够让如此多的人攫取到财富?为什么是这些投资者,除了选对标的的运气和投资的胆识,他们如何跨过行业大跌的周期,在今年实现盈利?深跌到绝望后还有希望吗?或许林鹤也没有想到,八年前经历过的股灾,在冥冥之中为他埋下了坚持投资新东方在线的伏笔。去年1月,新东方在线股价还徘徊在20港元左右,林鹤第一次出手买入。此后连续7个月,他每个月都会加仓。“当时一开始买的时候成本高,25港元左右,所以之后一有钱就会买新东方在线。当时跟我一起买股票的人,百分之七八十的人都走了......。”林鹤说。不走才奇怪,整个2021年,新东方在线股价跌了81.04%。25元入市的林鹤不仅站在股价高点上,还面临着投资亏损超8成的现实,要回本得翻4-5倍。在跌跌不休的股价面前,自觉赌性极强的林鹤留守下来,“我2015年开始炒股,一入场就经历了股灾......这几年炒港股也没有赚到过什么钱,百分之四五十的跌幅对我不算什么了......”戏谑的是,投资新东方在线时,处于创业阶段的林鹤正想调整投资风格,从过往“抄底”变为长线投资,投资一些在他看来资质好、在成长期的公司,新东方在线年轻化的管理团队是他投资的重要原因。“他们总裁跟我差不多年龄,当初想花一些钱跟着他们学习如何管理企业,如果股价下跌,就当缴了‘学费’。”显然,“学费”缴了许久,不想“抄底”的他变成被动“抄底。抄底方式虽有不同,底层逻辑却有相似之处。朱生属于主动“抄底”进入者,作为自媒体博主的他,了解且关注着不同企业的管理者,“管理层的道德水准”、创始人的价值观是他在投资时重要的判断标准。新东方在线在去年下半年:裁员超4万人、退租教学点达1500个,捐献课桌椅仅8万套予乡村学校......一系列的新闻叠加下跌的股价让朱生决定入场。“我比较欣赏俞敏洪,这些新闻能看出他是负责任的企业家,跟那些跑路的企业不同,我觉得俞敏洪本人至少值得100亿元的市值......”朱生在今年2月底到3月之间开始买入新东方在线,公司股价在当时已经跌至4.88港元/股左右,朱生买入十几万股,耗资在50万港元到40万港元之间。此前俞敏洪的增持行为也让他判断:新东方在线的股价或许已经到了底部,创始人对这家公司有感情也有信心。对于多数国人而言,俞敏洪是被时代创造且让人耳熟能详的企业家,他和他的新东方,连同一起创造的留学热潮也让人记忆深刻。“学英语”是新东方的重要标识,这一切显然要在2021年7月之后必须被改变。不到三个月的时间,俞敏洪为新东方转型想好了新的发展方向,这条道路内生于其多年来一直关切和忧虑的议题,在《十三邀》第五季中已有端倪,他提到最多的关键词是“农村”,思考如何对农村提供短暂却重要的帮助。2021年11月7日,俞敏洪在直播时宣布,新东方未来计划成立一个大型的农业平台,自己将会和几百位老师通过直播带货,整合上下游资源,帮助农产品销售,让农民转型,让青年农民愿意回到农村,让更多的留守儿童能在父母的陪伴下成长,支持乡村振兴事业。新东方内部在去年9、10月开始讨论转型直播带货。如今大火的董宇辉当初在得知要转型直播带货后决定离职,彼时,新东方在线执行董事、行政总裁孙东旭挽留他说:“困难的时候,要相信团队凝结在一起,走着走着,兴许就有方向了。”可见,即便是孙东旭,也不那么确定直播带货的道路究竟能否行得通。甚至,有媒体也不大看好。《经济日报》就曾刊发过一则题为《新东方不应照搬李佳琦》的评论文章,文中提到“作为校外教育培训行业的龙头企业之一,新东方转型具有风向标意义。如果只是从一个挣快钱的行业跳到另一个挣快钱的行业,恐怕不是最佳示范”......新东方在线转型之路被议论纷纷之际,林鹤成为“东方甄选”直播间最早一批粉丝。作为投资者,他想看看新东方转型的直播带货道路到底如何发展。对于外界而言,俞敏洪的任何行为都将同上市公司紧密的连接在一起。为了不辜负投资人,俞敏洪也以真金白银做了投票。去年11月中旬,他在两天时间里斥资2499万港元,合计增持了新东方在线357.2万股,增持后持股比例由4.63%上升至4.98%。俞敏洪的增持行为一度拉升新东方在线的股价,仅11月30日,公司股价单日涨幅达90.06%,股价从开盘价4.19港元/股涨至8.12港元/股。这个增持行为也让林鹤坚定了他继续持有股票的信心。哪怕最初观看东方甄选时,他心中没底。“直播购物这条路我当时也看不懂,但我看好做农业的方向,我创业也是这个方向,国家肯定支持;而且俞敏洪本人,60岁还愿意带领企业共同创业,无论这件事成不成功,我也找不到第二个跟新东方在线类似的投资标的;公司的管理团队也很年轻、股权清晰。股价下跌的时候,俞敏洪却做增持,他肯定对新东方有更多的发展想法,我跟着他们一起走,相当于做风投。”林鹤对当时投资策略复盘道。股价坐火箭,一周暴涨近7倍逆风翻盘的道路艰辛与曲折亦是常态。在东方甄选直播的半年时间中,新东方在线的股价下跌近4成。磕磕绊绊摸索着直播带货之路的新东方在线,困在低谷中。5月31日,新东方在线开盘后,股价一度跌至上市以来的最低点2.84港元/股。东方甄选的直播间已经不温不火开播大半年,销售额也不在抖音内部排名榜的前100名。秉承着“风投”心态的林鹤已是东方甄选最早的铁杆粉丝,每天晚上,他会和其他粉丝在群里讨论直播间的效果、可改进的地方,给董宇辉和孙东旭留言,讨论直播的方向。“那会他们都挺焦虑,直播间人数很少,效果特差,我们常常留言鼓励他们,就连直播间的灯光怎么打我们都会跟他们一起讨论......直播间粉丝刚破1000的时候,大家都很激动。”此时,林鹤已经持有新东方在线一年半。朱生则在新东方在线股价跌到3港元左右时,选择离场,他卖出持有的一半股票。这成为他最为后悔的事情。“五块左右入场已经很低了,结果一直在跌,跌得我真的很烦。股价波动那么大,一波动的时候人就会恐慌,就容易做错。”在朱生抛售不到一个月后,东方甄选直播间突然爆火,新东方在线股价迎来暴涨。6月9日,东方甄选直播间粉丝总量破百万,7天后粉丝量突破一千万。巨量引擎数据显示,6月13日,东方甄选直播间单场最高观看量771.7万人,10-13日单场销售额连续破千万。飞涨的销售额也让股价在一周时间里涨幅达554.46%,从起始收盘价4.37港元/股涨至结束收盘价28.6港元/股。短短一周,新东方在线股价飙升,直播间引来越来越多的关注。没有人知道,东方甄选的热度是昙花一现还是能够长久支撑,以及仅靠直播间又能否持续支撑起公司股价。先退出的是二股东腾讯。6月15日,腾讯以均价9.6港元卖出3561.25万股;第二日,再卖出3899.14万股。两次减持后,腾讯的持股比例从9.04%骤降至1.58%。几乎是清仓操作。后看空的是券商。6月17日,招商证券发布下调新东方在线评级的研报:“新东方在线当前估值需要对应直播带货业务近3000万元的日均GMV及35倍市盈率,目前估值过于激进。”“那一周股价每天都上涨的非常快,你基本没有考虑的时间。我眼睁睁看着股价从三块涨到十块,我身边所有朋友都告诉我先卖再买,包括我最早加的粉丝群,大家都在讨论怎么办。我心里肯定说服不了自己,怕卖便宜了,毕竟我持仓的成本高......”林鹤说道。新东方在线股价的持续下跌没有让林鹤焦虑与迷茫,反而是暴涨的股价让他手足无措。6月20日,林鹤选择卖出股票离场,持有新东方在线一年半后,经历过股价最低点时刻,他获得了172万元的收益。在林鹤退场期间,职业投资者杨天入场,他在股价9港元左右买了10%,第二天股价仍在上涨之际他加仓至50%。杨天加仓的信心来源其看重东方甄选直播间的稀缺性,相信股价将继续上涨。投资企业家而不只是投资企业新东方在线的股价没有辜负杨天的信心,它甚至没有辜负下半年迟到的入场者。在股价暴涨一周后,新东方在线从二十港元再度滑落至十几港元,财务出身的丽莎即在16港元左右价格买入,朱生也在这时再次买入。无论入局早晚抑或反复,他们都将分享到投资新东方在线所带来的财富。股价和东方甄选直播间的热度一样,都在下半年乘风飞起。6月1日到12月13日,公司起始收盘价为3.7港元/股,结束收盘价达42.6港元/股,区间涨幅达1051.35%。海通证券发布报告称,自2022年6月以来,东方甄选抖音号累计GMV达41.1亿元。据财通证券测算,新东方在线直播电商业务的总GMV预计将在2023年达到99.94亿,并带来约26.7亿的收入。东方甄选开创了以“知识带货”为主的内容向卖货方式,彼时淘宝头部主播处于停播阶段,抖音头部主播交个朋友直播间核心主播罗永浩退出创业,直播电商市场流量十分分散。“学英语”曾是新东方在线起家发展的基石,又再次演变为“双语卖货”的特色内容直播形式。杨天一度满仓持有新东方在线,他满仓的勇气来自于看重东方甄选直播间的稀缺性,在观看直播与参与购物的过程让他感知到:东方甄选要做得不只是直播间,而是农业科技平台,在热度火爆的半年时间中,自有产品品类不断增多,供应链搭建迅速。根据蝉妈妈数据大致估算,10 月东方甄选自营品数量占比约为 20%-30%,GMV(预计)占比约为 30%-40%。公司每月新增 5-10 款自营商品,甄选自营系列商品主要为农产品类。“农产品的消费频率是很高的,而且东方甄选自有产品的复购率很不错,一年能复购十几次甚至几十次。直播带货属于轻资产业务,它未来的毛利率会很高,而且他们也不满足于这个,自营品牌的搭建、直播账号(指“美丽生活”)矩阵的探索,都让它更有发展空间。”杨天分析道。丽莎从自己参与创业公司的经历中看到新东方在线可能性。“他们的团队很成熟,这半年以来发展得很顺利,这在创业公司中很难得。直播业务上不断突破,形式越来越多样,内容直播的方式也能留住不爱刷抖音的人。”丽莎认为,东方甄选直播间的爆火也因切中了城市中产阶级消费降级的趋势。“原来我会买七八块的进口牛奶给孩子喝,现在在直播间买三四块的国产有机牛奶,它的品质也很好呀。”同时,新东方在线过往做在线教育的经历以及人才储备让丽莎更有信心。“原来新东方在线做在线教育,教学与带货讲解具有一定相似性,多年的教育经历里,它有庞大的人才库和培训体系,主播永远不会缺,潜力会很大。”直播数据造假很有可能成为直播电商企业的阿喀琉斯之踵,而在这里杨天、丽莎和林鹤都相信新东方在线管理层不买流量的承诺。“俞敏洪和孙东旭都说过不会买流量,企业这么多年累积的信誉,我相信他们可以做到,如果做不到,这也不是俞敏洪了。”杨天说,36氪访谈过的投资者中,对于新东方在线的投资绕不开俞敏洪本人。投资大佬段永平曾写道:对于新东方在线的投资,朱生事后曾反复复盘,在看来,由于自己的不确定,对新东方在线的投资收益从潜在的数百万元变成数十万元。“这真的是一个很大的教训。”最初他因为认可俞敏洪作为企业家“创造价值”的能力购买股票,在股价暴跌之际,俞敏洪并没有改变,做直播带货的方向也没有变。即便新东方在线股价上半年暴跌不止,但也不会出现清盘的可能。“投资一开始考验你的眼光,中间考验你的心态。我以为我的心态要比眼光好,事实证明,我高估了自己的心态,中间的操作违背自己的初衷,这样的投资标的你一生中,又能遇到几次呢?”对于杨九和丽莎而言,属于他们的收获从6月才刚刚开始。对新东方在线投资的半年时间,丽莎实现了七位数、超百万元的收益,弥补了其他股票的投资亏损。杨天浮盈收益更多,由于其帮他人也打理一部分股票,他告诉36氪:“现在仓位浮盈的规模可以买得了深圳一套房。我自己的话,收益没有那么多,毕竟上半年有亏损,当然是有赚。”在深圳,面积稍大的房子要千万元起步。林鹤在6月卖出过一部分后,又再次入场。对新东方在线的投资也弥补了他今年其他的投资亏损,四次卖出的总收益达258.44万元,目前的账面浮盈亦有百万元。造富的故事不胜枚举。有网友写道:“之前关注了一个网友,400万资金在新东方在线,赚了2000万,目前持仓市值2500万......这个人牛就牛在,新东方暴涨到30元时,他在28元卖了,预测15元接回,后来跌到15元接回,现在涨到了40元,真牛。”无论是对于投资者还是资本市场,新东方在线是今年颇具传奇色彩的公司。它经历股价最低的时节,也在短短一年的时间内跑出新的业务方向。它甚至给投资者带来一种全新的投资体验。林鹤、丽莎、朱生和杨天他们原先都不看抖音也不参与直播购物,东方甄选改变了他们的生活方式。林鹤和丽莎的日常用品不再去大型商超购买,而是全部购自于东方甄选直播间。如今,林鹤每天早上都会看二十分钟东方甄选的直播,每周会定期在直播间买书也会看同主播的排班,“不只是投资了他们的股票才看直播,而是对他们有很深的感情。”林鹤目前持有的港股股票中,新东方在线占其80%的仓位,剩余20%的股票仅是停牌或被踢出港股通的僵尸股。杨天也十分满意对于新东方在线的投资。“不仅仅是挣钱的原因,而是你很好它,它也很符合你的期待。在商业世界中,困境反转的故事少之又少。对于企业而言,困境不一定是暂时的,反转的核心在于要尊重商业运转的逻辑,尊重商业的法则,唯有如此,才有可能从绝望中找到希望。(应采访对象要求,文中林鹤、朱生、丽莎、杨天均为化名。)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623925353,"gmtCreate":1671005784272,"gmtModify":1671005785055,"author":{"id":"3551827235621669","authorId":"3551827235621669","name":"笨小虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7934e5a816087ee6c2f32e9242c1bda5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551827235621669","authorIdStr":"3551827235621669"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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