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七曜之光
2020-05-28
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
明天纳指暴跌5个点以上,立贴为证。
七曜之光
2020-05-27
$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
纳斯达克昨天已见中期大顶,逢高必空。
七曜之光
2020-05-07
$美国原油ETF(USO)$
注意到每天2:22附近经常有较大波动,偶尔会见日内最低点,有没有大佬解释一下?
七曜之光
2020-05-06
坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底,出坑本来打算多拿一会,看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说,留下的发财哈,这波行情告诉你,原油这玩意它就没底,期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。
油价熊牛反转?高盛:别急,我们正在经历第一阶段
七曜之光
2020-04-29
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
跌一下-24,涨回去+8。。。
七曜之光
2020-04-23
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
有没有老哥说下送的一股如何卖出?
七曜之光
2020-04-22
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
做个基吧,跟一下期货!
七曜之光
2020-04-22
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
直接不跟期货走势了,结合做空的暴跌时直接停做多的牌,感觉这个就是内幕交易,做空工具。
七曜之光
2020-04-22
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
有毒,主升浪直接停牌停没了,能告这公司吗?
七曜之光
2020-04-22
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
???停牌了?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>明天纳指暴跌5个点以上,立贴为证。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>明天纳指暴跌5个点以上,立贴为证。","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 明天纳指暴跌5个点以上,立贴为证。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951935487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951091602,"gmtCreate":1590581250306,"gmtModify":1704192974885,"author":{"id":"3549057401325152","authorId":"3549057401325152","authorIdStr":"3549057401325152","name":"七曜之光","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab7e0a42bbe73a75149977b0b4cbb8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>纳斯达克昨天已见中期大顶,逢高必空。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>纳斯达克昨天已见中期大顶,逢高必空。","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$纳斯达克昨天已见中期大顶,逢高必空。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951091602","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927809670,"gmtCreate":1588790067990,"gmtModify":1704178474557,"author":{"id":"3549057401325152","authorId":"3549057401325152","authorIdStr":"3549057401325152","name":"七曜之光","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab7e0a42bbe73a75149977b0b4cbb8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>注意到每天2:22附近经常有较大波动,偶尔会见日内最低点,有没有大佬解释一下?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>注意到每天2:22附近经常有较大波动,偶尔会见日内最低点,有没有大佬解释一下?","text":"$美国原油ETF(USO)$注意到每天2:22附近经常有较大波动,偶尔会见日内最低点,有没有大佬解释一下?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927809670","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927342695,"gmtCreate":1588762158817,"gmtModify":1704178323877,"author":{"id":"3549057401325152","authorId":"3549057401325152","authorIdStr":"3549057401325152","name":"七曜之光","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab7e0a42bbe73a75149977b0b4cbb8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底,出坑本来打算多拿一会,看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说,留下的发财哈,这波行情告诉你,原油这玩意它就没底,期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。","listText":"坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底,出坑本来打算多拿一会,看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说,留下的发财哈,这波行情告诉你,原油这玩意它就没底,期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。","text":"坑里顶着说这月还要负油价抄了底,出坑本来打算多拿一会,看到牛市论emmmmm我先减仓再说,留下的发财哈,这波行情告诉你,原油这玩意它就没底,期待再涨两年回高位后拿中长线空单。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927342695","repostId":"1134158008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134158008","pubTimestamp":1588688442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134158008?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-05 22:20","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"油价熊牛反转?高盛:别急,我们正在经历第一阶段","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134158008","media":"金十数据","summary":"油价要反弹出牛市行情,还需要很长的一段时间,投资者需要更有耐心。","content":"<p>周二,国际油价没有停下上攻的步伐,WTI原油期货价格再次暴升16%以上,这与4月底的惊天“负油价”形成鲜明对比。油市的这波“后浪”,能把空头彻底拍翻在沙滩上吗。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ac997126399c9569d03b93c5a5c9d8d\"></p><p>高盛此前曾发布报告称,预计2020年第二季度全球石油供给过剩为860万桶/日,届时全球1.2亿桶石油储能将被耗尽,因此高盛的分析师预测WTI原油将跌至负数,几周前也确实成为了现实。但近期高盛大宗商品研究部门开始看涨原油。</p><p>高盛的能源策略师达米恩·库瓦林(Damien Courvalin)上周五在一份报告中写道,因原油供给即将迅速减少,并且石油需求也会随着各国逐渐解封而逐步好转,原油基本面有望大为改善,导致原油库存的增长速度近期有所放缓,再加上创新储油方式的出现,油市似乎能够经受住了存储能力的考验,市场因此有望走向平衡。</p><p>在原油供需基本面十分极端且充满了不确定性的时期,实物原油的价格往往是最真实的,此前实物原油的价格跌至历史低位甚至负值区间时,被迫减产就开始了,但这有助于减缓当地储存设施被填满的速度,这就是市场再平衡的力量。</p><p>在市场再平衡的推动下,<b>库瓦林预计油价将经历三个阶段的曲折反弹:</b></p><blockquote><p>第一阶段是近期5、6月份,WTI原油将反弹至25美元附近;</p><p>第二阶段从2020年下半年开始,原油市场暴力再平衡,开始出现供不应求的状况,但库存压力得以缓解,布伦特原油小幅看涨至30美元,第二阶段可能持续到2020年第三季度或第四季度结束;</p><p>第三阶段,市场将越来越集中化,有助于推涨油价,高盛对20201年第四季度布伦特原油的目标价格为65美元/桶。</p></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e18b53ca8d582efb0c96433fddc47fb\"></p><p><b><span>第一阶段:市场温和地推动再平衡,WTI原油反弹至25美元。</span></b></p><p>首先是近期5、6月份,市场将温和地推动再平衡。随着减产协议的执行,供求逐渐平衡,原油积压的库存将逐步被消化,WTI原油将反弹至25美元附近,回到现金成本水平;<b>但在此过程中油价还是会继续大幅波动,如果有增产的消息出来,且库容被耗尽了,原油现货仍有可能跌至负数。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f6f151028e1e3394020a140db20572\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e02e2dae1240481db3a25794aa7848c\"></p><p><b><span>第二阶段:市场暴力再平衡,布油在30美元附近承压。</span></b></p><p>第一阶段为第二阶段埋下了伏笔,将发生市场暴力再平衡,库瓦林指出了四点原因:</p><blockquote><p>首先,因为大多数欧佩克+成员国的减产协议是按比例执行的,有的油井一旦停产将变成永久关停;</p><p>再加上减产协议执行期间油价还不会回到高位,原油是一种实物资产,此前大量闲置在存储设施里,要想实现油价大幅反弹,需要先消化库存,这可能会拖原油期货的后腿;</p><p>另外,除了欧佩克+成员国将减产970万桶/日,高成本的生产商如美国页岩油企业也会被迫减产,目前非欧佩克生产商已公开承诺减产220万桶/日,但考虑到有很多国营生产商和私营生产商不会公开发声明,所以实际减产数目可能更多;</p><p>此外,资本成本过高的其它生产商也将被迫离场,这种暴力的市场再平衡将导致石油供给大幅下降。</p></blockquote><p>随着各国经济复苏需求增加,预计从2020年第二季度末开始,原油市场将出现供不应求的状况,但原油库存压力的减小也会给油价带来压力,库瓦林预计第三季度布伦特曲线将在30美元附近。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f71ff53c30e3849e40bbf44d741f037\"></p><p><b><span>第三阶段:集中度更高的市场进一步推涨油价,布油看涨至65美元/桶。</span></b></p><p>第二阶段的暴力再平衡洗刷了市场结构,有利于第三阶段进一步推涨油价。暴力再平衡中,生产成本较高的美国页岩油生产商,以及资本成本较高的其它生产商将被迫缩小规模,而生产成本较低的欧佩克将扩大市场份额。</p><p>市场份额的集中化将使油价进一步上涨,因此高盛将2021年第四季度的目标油价从60美元/桶上调至65美元/桶,现货溢价上升。</p><p>但值得注意的是,高盛虽然看好2021年的油价,但下调了2020年下半年的目标油价,认为2020年第四季度的石油需求将下降,比新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前下降500万桶/日。理由是:</p><blockquote><p>(1)假定GDP与石油需求之间存在正比例关系,那么GDP下降,石油需求也会下降相应的幅度;</p><p>(2)长时间经济关停对交通运输行业将造成沉重打击,从而导致石油需求大幅下降;</p><p>(3)新冠疫情对邮轮和飞机出行需求造成了毁灭性打击;</p><p>(4)长期社会隔离可能改变人们的行为方式和工作方式,员工从此更多在家办公,减少通勤,而通勤的石油需求为900万桶/日。</p></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28587dc1706dddf36cf7fd754fd3af3e\"></p><p>高盛认为,这四个因素对2020年和2021年每个季度的石油需求影响分别为-210万桶/日、-75万桶/日、-95万桶/日以及-100万桶/日;对2021年四个季度的影响将为-90万桶/日、-20万桶/日、-50万桶/日和-100万桶/日。</p><p>基于以上分析,高盛总结称,油价要反弹出牛市行情,还需要很长的一段时间,投资者需要更有耐心。</p><p>库瓦林建议投资者做多2021年12月份布伦特原油期货的水平价差,因为布油期货届时将出现大幅现货溢价;此外,他还建议投资者做多2021年第三季度的RBOB(氧化混调型精制汽油)期货,以从消费者对汽车而非其他交通方式的偏好中获利。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价熊牛反转?高盛:别急,我们正在经历第一阶段</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价熊牛反转?高盛:别急,我们正在经历第一阶段\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-05 22:20 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59598><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周二,国际油价没有停下上攻的步伐,WTI原油期货价格再次暴升16%以上,这与4月底的惊天“负油价”形成鲜明对比。油市的这波“后浪”,能把空头彻底拍翻在沙滩上吗。高盛此前曾发布报告称,预计2020年第二季度全球石油供给过剩为860万桶/日,届时全球1.2亿桶石油储能将被耗尽,因此高盛的分析师预测WTI原油将跌至负数,几周前也确实成为了现实。但近期高盛大宗商品研究部门开始看涨原油。高盛的能源策略师达米...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59598\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/694f12098a1183856ae9f1a61e97c6c4","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/59598","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134158008","content_text":"周二,国际油价没有停下上攻的步伐,WTI原油期货价格再次暴升16%以上,这与4月底的惊天“负油价”形成鲜明对比。油市的这波“后浪”,能把空头彻底拍翻在沙滩上吗。高盛此前曾发布报告称,预计2020年第二季度全球石油供给过剩为860万桶/日,届时全球1.2亿桶石油储能将被耗尽,因此高盛的分析师预测WTI原油将跌至负数,几周前也确实成为了现实。但近期高盛大宗商品研究部门开始看涨原油。高盛的能源策略师达米恩·库瓦林(Damien Courvalin)上周五在一份报告中写道,因原油供给即将迅速减少,并且石油需求也会随着各国逐渐解封而逐步好转,原油基本面有望大为改善,导致原油库存的增长速度近期有所放缓,再加上创新储油方式的出现,油市似乎能够经受住了存储能力的考验,市场因此有望走向平衡。在原油供需基本面十分极端且充满了不确定性的时期,实物原油的价格往往是最真实的,此前实物原油的价格跌至历史低位甚至负值区间时,被迫减产就开始了,但这有助于减缓当地储存设施被填满的速度,这就是市场再平衡的力量。在市场再平衡的推动下,库瓦林预计油价将经历三个阶段的曲折反弹:第一阶段是近期5、6月份,WTI原油将反弹至25美元附近;第二阶段从2020年下半年开始,原油市场暴力再平衡,开始出现供不应求的状况,但库存压力得以缓解,布伦特原油小幅看涨至30美元,第二阶段可能持续到2020年第三季度或第四季度结束;第三阶段,市场将越来越集中化,有助于推涨油价,高盛对20201年第四季度布伦特原油的目标价格为65美元/桶。第一阶段:市场温和地推动再平衡,WTI原油反弹至25美元。首先是近期5、6月份,市场将温和地推动再平衡。随着减产协议的执行,供求逐渐平衡,原油积压的库存将逐步被消化,WTI原油将反弹至25美元附近,回到现金成本水平;但在此过程中油价还是会继续大幅波动,如果有增产的消息出来,且库容被耗尽了,原油现货仍有可能跌至负数。第二阶段:市场暴力再平衡,布油在30美元附近承压。第一阶段为第二阶段埋下了伏笔,将发生市场暴力再平衡,库瓦林指出了四点原因:首先,因为大多数欧佩克+成员国的减产协议是按比例执行的,有的油井一旦停产将变成永久关停;再加上减产协议执行期间油价还不会回到高位,原油是一种实物资产,此前大量闲置在存储设施里,要想实现油价大幅反弹,需要先消化库存,这可能会拖原油期货的后腿;另外,除了欧佩克+成员国将减产970万桶/日,高成本的生产商如美国页岩油企业也会被迫减产,目前非欧佩克生产商已公开承诺减产220万桶/日,但考虑到有很多国营生产商和私营生产商不会公开发声明,所以实际减产数目可能更多;此外,资本成本过高的其它生产商也将被迫离场,这种暴力的市场再平衡将导致石油供给大幅下降。随着各国经济复苏需求增加,预计从2020年第二季度末开始,原油市场将出现供不应求的状况,但原油库存压力的减小也会给油价带来压力,库瓦林预计第三季度布伦特曲线将在30美元附近。第三阶段:集中度更高的市场进一步推涨油价,布油看涨至65美元/桶。第二阶段的暴力再平衡洗刷了市场结构,有利于第三阶段进一步推涨油价。暴力再平衡中,生产成本较高的美国页岩油生产商,以及资本成本较高的其它生产商将被迫缩小规模,而生产成本较低的欧佩克将扩大市场份额。市场份额的集中化将使油价进一步上涨,因此高盛将2021年第四季度的目标油价从60美元/桶上调至65美元/桶,现货溢价上升。但值得注意的是,高盛虽然看好2021年的油价,但下调了2020年下半年的目标油价,认为2020年第四季度的石油需求将下降,比新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前下降500万桶/日。理由是:(1)假定GDP与石油需求之间存在正比例关系,那么GDP下降,石油需求也会下降相应的幅度;(2)长时间经济关停对交通运输行业将造成沉重打击,从而导致石油需求大幅下降;(3)新冠疫情对邮轮和飞机出行需求造成了毁灭性打击;(4)长期社会隔离可能改变人们的行为方式和工作方式,员工从此更多在家办公,减少通勤,而通勤的石油需求为900万桶/日。高盛认为,这四个因素对2020年和2021年每个季度的石油需求影响分别为-210万桶/日、-75万桶/日、-95万桶/日以及-100万桶/日;对2021年四个季度的影响将为-90万桶/日、-20万桶/日、-50万桶/日和-100万桶/日。基于以上分析,高盛总结称,油价要反弹出牛市行情,还需要很长的一段时间,投资者需要更有耐心。库瓦林建议投资者做多2021年12月份布伦特原油期货的水平价差,因为布油期货届时将出现大幅现货溢价;此外,他还建议投资者做多2021年第三季度的RBOB(氧化混调型精制汽油)期货,以从消费者对汽车而非其他交通方式的偏好中获利。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924900320,"gmtCreate":1588172217160,"gmtModify":1704366792801,"author":{"id":"3549057401325152","authorId":"3549057401325152","authorIdStr":"3549057401325152","name":"七曜之光","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab7e0a42bbe73a75149977b0b4cbb8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>跌一下-24,涨回去+8。。。","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$跌一下-24,涨回去+8。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924900320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548452324602034","authorId":"3548452324602034","authorIdStr":"3548452324602034","name":"华尔街挤奶员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c72c8196781549d9c4d8e62dae4768d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"8都不到.","text":"8都不到.","html":"8都不到."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922548739,"gmtCreate":1587622632021,"gmtModify":1704364969687,"author":{"id":"3549057401325152","authorId":"3549057401325152","authorIdStr":"3549057401325152","name":"七曜之光","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab7e0a42bbe73a75149977b0b4cbb8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>做个基吧,跟一下期货!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>做个基吧,跟一下期货!","text":"$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$做个基吧,跟一下期货!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922860595","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922884719,"gmtCreate":1587494867131,"gmtModify":1704364506668,"author":{"id":"3549057401325152","authorId":"3549057401325152","authorIdStr":"3549057401325152","name":"七曜之光","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab7e0a42bbe73a75149977b0b4cbb8d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCO\">$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$</a>直接不跟期货走势了,结合做空的暴跌时直接停做多的牌,感觉这个就是内幕交易,做空工具。","listText":"<a 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