午夜蓝树上鱼的个人主页 - 老虎社区

午夜蓝树上鱼

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IP属地：浙江

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午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-06-16

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 真行，一天时间涨上去，半小时跳水全下来

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-06-10

$WTI原油2007(CL2007)$ 总是晚上睡觉时狗庄偷偷拉盘

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-06-01

$天然气2007(NG2007)$ 抄底上车

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-20

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 今天这上蹿下跳的行情

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-19

$WTI原油2007(CL2007)$ 空军来了

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-15

$WTI原油2007(CL2007)$ 空头死完多头死，这一天天的，已经被套两天了，期待今晚解套

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-08

$WTI原油2007(CL2007)$ 开始跳水表演

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-06

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 这行情，超短线们乐坏了吧，上蹿下跳的

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-06

$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 不玩了，庄家自己玩吧

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-06

$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 开始跳水了

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-05-06

今天要跳水吗

午夜蓝树上鱼

2020-04-30

好

原油做多近月合约存在较大风险

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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开始跳水表演","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927598873","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927151491,"gmtCreate":1588779382813,"gmtModify":1704178439435,"author":{"id":"3548726380851061","authorId":"3548726380851061","name":"午夜蓝树上鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548726380851061","authorIdStr":"3548726380851061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>这行情，超短线们乐坏了吧，上蹿下跳的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>这行情，超短线们乐坏了吧，上蹿下跳的","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 这行情，超短线们乐坏了吧，上蹿下跳的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927151491","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927153887,"gmtCreate":1588779133849,"gmtModify":1704178437519,"author":{"id":"3548726380851061","authorId":"3548726380851061","name":"午夜蓝树上鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548726380851061","authorIdStr":"3548726380851061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2006\">$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ &nbsp;</a>不玩了，庄家自己玩吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2006\">$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ &nbsp;</a>不玩了，庄家自己玩吧","text":"$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 不玩了，庄家自己玩吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927153887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927949151,"gmtCreate":1588723735573,"gmtModify":1704178171820,"author":{"id":"3548726380851061","authorId":"3548726380851061","name":"午夜蓝树上鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548726380851061","authorIdStr":"3548726380851061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2006\">$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ &nbsp;</a>开始跳水了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2006\">$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ &nbsp;</a>开始跳水了","text":"$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$ 开始跳水了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927949151","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927940827,"gmtCreate":1588723512569,"gmtModify":1704178170262,"author":{"id":"3548726380851061","authorId":"3548726380851061","name":"午夜蓝树上鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548726380851061","authorIdStr":"3548726380851061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天要跳水吗","listText":"今天要跳水吗","text":"今天要跳水吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927940827","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924916335,"gmtCreate":1588177678727,"gmtModify":1704366841770,"author":{"id":"3548726380851061","authorId":"3548726380851061","name":"午夜蓝树上鱼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548726380851061","authorIdStr":"3548726380851061"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924916335","repostId":"2031332424","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2031332424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1588173780,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2031332424?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-29 23:23","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"原油 做多近月合约存在较大风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2031332424","media":"期货日报","summary":"目前海外疫情仍然没有出现拐点，而全球原油库容已经消耗殆尽。在此背景下，原油近月合约难改弱势格局。新冠肺炎疫情引发全球原油供应严重过剩，美国、俄罗斯、沙特在原油市场中的寡头格局决定了减产联盟非常脆弱。特...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=102.CL00Y&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=112.BC&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><div></div><p>　　目前海外疫情仍然没有出现拐点，而全球原油库容已经消耗殆尽。在此背景下，原油近月合约难改弱势格局。</p><p>　　新冠肺炎疫情引发全球原油供应严重过剩，美国、俄罗斯、沙特在原油市场中的寡头格局决定了减产联盟非常脆弱。特别是目前疫情仍然没有出现拐点，而全球原油库容已经消耗殆尽，原油近月合约的弱势格局难以改变。</p><p>　　<strong>成也原油败也原油</strong></p><p>　　20世纪70年代初爆发了第四次中东战争，中东原油的供应受到了极大影响，加之OPEC为反击美国支援以色列开始限制对原油的供应，导致了国际油价大幅上涨。20世纪60—70年代，苏联在西西伯利亚发现了巨型油气田，在油价大涨的时候，苏联开始向西方输出油气资源，填补OPEC的供应缺口，这使得苏联获得了丰厚的外汇收入。当时，对西西伯利亚油气工业每投入1卢布，经过3—4年就可以收回30—40卢布的利润，拥有如此高昂的资本回报，苏联开始用油气出口赚取巨额外汇与美国进行军备竞赛，并大量进口<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/sz000061.html\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a></span>满足国内需求。</p><p>　　1984年，苏联仅从美国和加拿大进口粮食就达2680万吨，除了粮食作物外，包括肉类、油脂、白糖等重要的农副产品苏联也高度依赖进口。当时，苏联的经济高度依赖能源出口，1984年苏联的能源出口收入占苏联外汇收入的比值达到54.4%的峰值。不过，当时苏联决策层对油价作出了误判，他们认为油价经历大幅上涨之后会稳定下来。因此，苏联没有对油价下跌引发的经济下滑以及一系列连锁反应做任何准备。</p><p>　　20世纪80年代中期，美国要求以沙特阿拉伯为首的OPEC增产原油压低油价抑制苏联。面对当时中东的局势，沙特一方面需要美国的军事保护；另一方面也不满在石油危机的过程中苏联没有配合OPEC限产而是扩大产能，由此同意了美国的建议。在OPEC增产以及20世纪80年代全球经济增速下滑的大背景下，国际油价大幅下挫，苏联陷入了财政危机，这是苏联最终解体一个很重要的原因。</p><p>　　经过30年的时间，全球原油格局发生了重大改变，但原油在全球经济体系中的重要地位并没有改变，油价是大国之间角逐的重要工具也没有改变。不过，和三四十年前不同的是，随着美国、俄罗斯原油产量不断增加，OPEC的原油产量占全球原油产量的比重不断下滑，现在已经在40%左右。加之目前全球原油供应严重过剩，这使得OPEC对油价的影响力大大降低，以往OPEC减产支撑油价的策略已经不再适用。不仅如此，随着油价下跌，OPEC成员国的财政状况持续恶化，想要缓解财政赤字只有加大生产，这使得原油供需格局出现不良循环。</p><p>　　从开采成来看，沙特的开采成本平均在9.9美元/桶左右，部分自喷井的成本更是低至3—5美元/桶，俄罗斯的开采成本在17.3美元/桶，美国因为页岩油的开采成本较高，平均开采成本在36.3美元/桶。不过，如果考虑到财政预算的话，对于低油价的承受能力是反过来的。沙特虽然油气开采成本极低，但其经济高度依赖油气资源的出口，加之本身是高等福利国家，其承受低油价的能力相较美国和俄罗斯要差得多。2014年国际油价下跌以来，沙特已经连续5年财政赤字，累计财政赤字11743.1亿沙特里亚尔(约3131.49亿美元)。虽然2019年、2020年的数据尚未公布，但考虑到油价大跌，沙特的财政赤字只会进一步扩大。据投行预估，沙特达到财政平衡时的油价在80美元/桶附近，在目前的原油供需格局之下，如此高的油价近乎天方夜谭。虽然沙特拥有丰厚的外汇储备，但其也难以长期忍受低油价。沙特作为OPEC成员国中经济实力最强的国家尚且如此，其他成员国抵御低油价的能力就更差了。</p><p>　　俄罗斯方面，2014—2017年因为油价下跌连续4年出现财政赤字，但2018年、2019年财政收支出现了盈余，这说明俄罗斯经济对于油气资源出口的依赖正在逐渐下降。部分研究机构公布的数据显示，目前俄罗斯的外汇储备能够忍受5年左右的低油价，俄罗斯抵御低油价的能力明显强于OPEC国家。</p><p>　　美国方面，对于低油价的抵御能力更强，一方面，低油价能够刺激美国经济增长；另一方面，能够抑制美国的反对者。因此，在页岩油革命引发的油价大跌过程中，美国对于本国成本较高的页岩油企业采取补贴政策，这也就是2014年油价大跌最终以OPEC主动妥协开始减产报价的原因。</p><p>　　从上文分析可知，虽然美国、俄罗斯、沙特的原油产量接近，但由于开采成本和财政状况不同，抵御低油价的能力也是不同的。沙特虽然开采成本最低，但由于其经济高度依赖原油出口，又连续多年财政赤字，最终的结果是长期低价逼迫OPEC进一步加大减产力度，从而导致其市场份额进一步下降，对油价的影响力进一步降低。基于产油国难以长期忍受低油价的判断，未来油价重心上移是大概率事件，甚至可以说是必然事件，对于这一点市场基本上已经形成了共识，从远月合约升水也可以看出。</p><p>　　<strong>供应过剩库容不足</strong></p><p>　　新冠肺炎疫情在全球肆虐，迫使各国纷纷采取“居家令”等管制措施控制疫情。“居家令”虽然限制了病毒的传播，但极大降低了居民的出行频率，严重影响了原油的消费。市场预估，第二季度全球原油消费将会下滑2000万—3000万桶/日，消费下降如此之大，使得全球原油供应严重过剩。最严重的是，目前全球原油库容消耗殆尽，市场面临无罐可存的尴尬境地。</p><p>　　根据全球油轮漂浮情况可知，目前陆地上的储罐已经消耗殆尽，而原油由于污染环境又不能随地倾倒，这迫使油气生产企业只能租用油轮存储原油。不过，随着油轮供求关系的变化，油轮也出现了紧张的局面，近期的BDI指数在油价大跌背景下不降反升就说明了这一点。</p><p>　　目前来看，在库容消耗殆尽、仓储成本持续上升的大背景下，想要解决库容不足这一问题，答案无非有产油国进一步降低产量、疫情迅速恢复使需求回暖、全球库容增加三种。然而，随着仓储成本上升，部分预备或者存储其他油品的储罐可能会去存储原油，但大幅增加库容是不现实的，所以库容增加的潜力相对有限。另外，从目前新冠肺炎新增确诊人数以及新增治愈人数的差值来看，疫情拐点仍然没有到来，更不用说疫情明显缓和了。笔者由此认为，后期解决这个问题的答案只能是产油国进一步减产。</p><center><img emheight=\"179\" src=\"https://z1.dfcfw.com/2020/4/29/20200429232504822599569.jpg\" title=\"200430d0.JPG\" width=\"580\"/></center><p>图为国内原油期货周线走势</p><p>　　在产油国进一步减产的过程中，各产油国和油气生产企业为了缓解库容压力，一定会低价抛售原油，将高昂的仓储成本转嫁给其他企业或者下游。因此，除非疫情出现好转，否则原油近月合约难改弱势格局。至于中长期买入原油持有，以国内原油期货为例，4月29日SC2101合约收盘报于 346.8元/桶，和疫情前存在100元/桶的差值，但在目前供应过剩严重以及疫情走势不明朗的前提下，全球原油供需格局很难在不到一年的时间里恢复到疫情前的水平。因此，做多原油近月合约不仅收益不高，而且会承担较大的风险。</p><p>　　<strong><span>马上下载<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">东方财富</a>期货APP开通期货账户，布局T+0可双向交易的原油期货&gt;&gt;</span></strong></p><p>（文章来源：期货日报）</p>\n<p>\r\n                (责任编辑：DF387)\r\n            </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"east_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>原油 做多近月合约存在较大风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n原油 做多近月合约存在较大风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-29 23:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://forex.eastmoney.com/a/202004291472351623.html><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>目前海外疫情仍然没有出现拐点，而全球原油库容已经消耗殆尽。在此背景下，原油近月合约难改弱势格局。　　新冠肺炎疫情引发全球原油供应严重过剩，美国、俄罗斯、沙特在原油市场中的寡头格局决定了减产联盟非常脆弱。特别是目前疫情仍然没有出现拐点，而全球原油库容已经消耗殆尽，原油近月合约的弱势格局难以改变。　　成也原油败也原油　　20世纪70年代初爆发了第四次中东战争，中东原油的供应受到了极大影响，加之OPEC...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://forex.eastmoney.com/a/202004291472351623.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e4944908df81bfad358b07ba0dc819","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://forex.eastmoney.com/a/202004291472351623.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2031332424","content_text":"目前海外疫情仍然没有出现拐点，而全球原油库容已经消耗殆尽。在此背景下，原油近月合约难改弱势格局。　　新冠肺炎疫情引发全球原油供应严重过剩，美国、俄罗斯、沙特在原油市场中的寡头格局决定了减产联盟非常脆弱。特别是目前疫情仍然没有出现拐点，而全球原油库容已经消耗殆尽，原油近月合约的弱势格局难以改变。　　成也原油败也原油　　20世纪70年代初爆发了第四次中东战争，中东原油的供应受到了极大影响，加之OPEC为反击美国支援以色列开始限制对原油的供应，导致了国际油价大幅上涨。20世纪60—70年代，苏联在西西伯利亚发现了巨型油气田，在油价大涨的时候，苏联开始向西方输出油气资源，填补OPEC的供应缺口，这使得苏联获得了丰厚的外汇收入。当时，对西西伯利亚油气工业每投入1卢布，经过3—4年就可以收回30—40卢布的利润，拥有如此高昂的资本回报，苏联开始用油气出口赚取巨额外汇与美国进行军备竞赛，并大量进口农产品满足国内需求。　　1984年，苏联仅从美国和加拿大进口粮食就达2680万吨，除了粮食作物外，包括肉类、油脂、白糖等重要的农副产品苏联也高度依赖进口。当时，苏联的经济高度依赖能源出口，1984年苏联的能源出口收入占苏联外汇收入的比值达到54.4%的峰值。不过，当时苏联决策层对油价作出了误判，他们认为油价经历大幅上涨之后会稳定下来。因此，苏联没有对油价下跌引发的经济下滑以及一系列连锁反应做任何准备。　　20世纪80年代中期，美国要求以沙特阿拉伯为首的OPEC增产原油压低油价抑制苏联。面对当时中东的局势，沙特一方面需要美国的军事保护；另一方面也不满在石油危机的过程中苏联没有配合OPEC限产而是扩大产能，由此同意了美国的建议。在OPEC增产以及20世纪80年代全球经济增速下滑的大背景下，国际油价大幅下挫，苏联陷入了财政危机，这是苏联最终解体一个很重要的原因。　　经过30年的时间，全球原油格局发生了重大改变，但原油在全球经济体系中的重要地位并没有改变，油价是大国之间角逐的重要工具也没有改变。不过，和三四十年前不同的是，随着美国、俄罗斯原油产量不断增加，OPEC的原油产量占全球原油产量的比重不断下滑，现在已经在40%左右。加之目前全球原油供应严重过剩，这使得OPEC对油价的影响力大大降低，以往OPEC减产支撑油价的策略已经不再适用。不仅如此，随着油价下跌，OPEC成员国的财政状况持续恶化，想要缓解财政赤字只有加大生产，这使得原油供需格局出现不良循环。　　从开采成来看，沙特的开采成本平均在9.9美元/桶左右，部分自喷井的成本更是低至3—5美元/桶，俄罗斯的开采成本在17.3美元/桶，美国因为页岩油的开采成本较高，平均开采成本在36.3美元/桶。不过，如果考虑到财政预算的话，对于低油价的承受能力是反过来的。沙特虽然油气开采成本极低，但其经济高度依赖油气资源的出口，加之本身是高等福利国家，其承受低油价的能力相较美国和俄罗斯要差得多。2014年国际油价下跌以来，沙特已经连续5年财政赤字，累计财政赤字11743.1亿沙特里亚尔(约3131.49亿美元)。虽然2019年、2020年的数据尚未公布，但考虑到油价大跌，沙特的财政赤字只会进一步扩大。据投行预估，沙特达到财政平衡时的油价在80美元/桶附近，在目前的原油供需格局之下，如此高的油价近乎天方夜谭。虽然沙特拥有丰厚的外汇储备，但其也难以长期忍受低油价。沙特作为OPEC成员国中经济实力最强的国家尚且如此，其他成员国抵御低油价的能力就更差了。　　俄罗斯方面，2014—2017年因为油价下跌连续4年出现财政赤字，但2018年、2019年财政收支出现了盈余，这说明俄罗斯经济对于油气资源出口的依赖正在逐渐下降。部分研究机构公布的数据显示，目前俄罗斯的外汇储备能够忍受5年左右的低油价，俄罗斯抵御低油价的能力明显强于OPEC国家。　　美国方面，对于低油价的抵御能力更强，一方面，低油价能够刺激美国经济增长；另一方面，能够抑制美国的反对者。因此，在页岩油革命引发的油价大跌过程中，美国对于本国成本较高的页岩油企业采取补贴政策，这也就是2014年油价大跌最终以OPEC主动妥协开始减产报价的原因。　　从上文分析可知，虽然美国、俄罗斯、沙特的原油产量接近，但由于开采成本和财政状况不同，抵御低油价的能力也是不同的。沙特虽然开采成本最低，但由于其经济高度依赖原油出口，又连续多年财政赤字，最终的结果是长期低价逼迫OPEC进一步加大减产力度，从而导致其市场份额进一步下降，对油价的影响力进一步降低。基于产油国难以长期忍受低油价的判断，未来油价重心上移是大概率事件，甚至可以说是必然事件，对于这一点市场基本上已经形成了共识，从远月合约升水也可以看出。　　供应过剩库容不足　　新冠肺炎疫情在全球肆虐，迫使各国纷纷采取“居家令”等管制措施控制疫情。“居家令”虽然限制了病毒的传播，但极大降低了居民的出行频率，严重影响了原油的消费。市场预估，第二季度全球原油消费将会下滑2000万—3000万桶/日，消费下降如此之大，使得全球原油供应严重过剩。最严重的是，目前全球原油库容消耗殆尽，市场面临无罐可存的尴尬境地。　　根据全球油轮漂浮情况可知，目前陆地上的储罐已经消耗殆尽，而原油由于污染环境又不能随地倾倒，这迫使油气生产企业只能租用油轮存储原油。不过，随着油轮供求关系的变化，油轮也出现了紧张的局面，近期的BDI指数在油价大跌背景下不降反升就说明了这一点。　　目前来看，在库容消耗殆尽、仓储成本持续上升的大背景下，想要解决库容不足这一问题，答案无非有产油国进一步降低产量、疫情迅速恢复使需求回暖、全球库容增加三种。然而，随着仓储成本上升，部分预备或者存储其他油品的储罐可能会去存储原油，但大幅增加库容是不现实的，所以库容增加的潜力相对有限。另外，从目前新冠肺炎新增确诊人数以及新增治愈人数的差值来看，疫情拐点仍然没有到来，更不用说疫情明显缓和了。笔者由此认为，后期解决这个问题的答案只能是产油国进一步减产。图为国内原油期货周线走势　　在产油国进一步减产的过程中，各产油国和油气生产企业为了缓解库容压力，一定会低价抛售原油，将高昂的仓储成本转嫁给其他企业或者下游。因此，除非疫情出现好转，否则原油近月合约难改弱势格局。至于中长期买入原油持有，以国内原油期货为例，4月29日SC2101合约收盘报于 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