龙城的个人主页 - 老虎社区

龙城

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2021-12-15

这还是新闻吗？

就在今夜！金融圈将迎来重大转变，事关全球市场

2021-09-10

别忽悠人了？要钱的

@donggzz:$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Tonight market will be bullish. This stock will go to $16-17. Next week even higher.

2021-08-24

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@Woooooo:$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ stop manipulating , get some help [愤怒]

2021-03-12

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@Jes1:$NIO Inc.(NIO)$繼續往上。

2021-03-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-19

$德琪医药-B(06996)$要破发

2020-08-11

$中芯国际(00981)$A股都绿了，你还不快点跟上节凑[龇牙]

2020-08-10

$中芯国际(00981)$垃圾！涨一点点，跌你拼命！

2020-07-24

$中芯国际(00981)$涨时不见你怎样，跌时你最欢

2020-07-16

$中芯国际(00981)$让暴风雨来得更猛烈些！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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20:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"就在今夜！金融圈将迎来重大转变，事关全球市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191551960","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储本年度最后一次货币政策会议即将到来。\n北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布利率决议，半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。\n目前市场普遍预计，美联储将在本次会","content":"<p>美联储本年度最后一次货币政策会议即将到来。</p>\n<p>北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布利率决议，半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</p>\n<p>目前市场普遍预计，美联储将在本次会议上宣布将Taper（缩减购债）的速度从每个月150亿美元翻倍至300亿美元，明年3月中旬之前完全结束Taper，并预计美联储还将在未来三年内进一步加息。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63b65b3b172a71d0751d67ce6057fb21\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如若果真如此，<b>这将标志着美联储的再一次重大政策转变。</b></p>\n<h2>会不会有鸽派taper？</h2>\n<p>如果说鲍威尔上次在国会听证会上发表的鹰派言论，还不足以让市场确信美联储会将taper速度加倍，那么在上周五公布的美国CPI数据创下近40年来最高后，市场获得了进一步确信的理由。</p>\n<p>因为通胀是目前美国消费者最关心的经济问题，其程度远远超过失业问题，由于通胀持续高企，近期拜登的支持率进一步下滑，民主党人越来越担心高通胀可能会对其2022年中期选举产生负面影响，温和派民主党人甚至正在推动美联储采取更为激进的货币政策以遏制通胀。</p>\n<p>显然，<b>相比2018年美联储加息缩表，美联储和主席鲍威尔受到的来自白宫的压力要小得多。因为如今的通胀问题比2018年严重得多，并且本届政府不再像2018年那样专注于股市。</b></p>\n<p>资管机构Capital Alpha Partners分析师Ian Katz此前表示，鉴于民主党面临的政治压力，这种转变并不令人意外。如果通胀威胁到经济和民主党中期选举前景，那么鸽派就会少很多。</p>\n<p><b>尽管如此，仍有部分分析师认为美联储可能会展示一个相对较为鸽派的taper。</b></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>基金首席全球策略师David Kelly表示，“美联储鹰派立场的局限性”将显现出来。央行官员通常被描述为要么是警惕通胀、渴望收紧货币政策的鹰派，要么是更注重增长的鸽派。</p>\n<p>Kelly表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 美联储成员在现阶段过于频繁地展示他们鸽派的羽毛，以至于我们无法将他们误认为是一群鹰派。\n</blockquote>\n<p>渣打银行北美宏观策略主管Steve Englander认为，<b>美联储可能会温和地缩减购债规模，直至明月4月中旬结束。</b></p>\n<p>Englander认为，每月减少250亿美元的债券购买将获得最大的支持，其在一份给客户的报告中表示，4月中旬结束taper将是温和的，因为“缩减购债的速度越快，投资者对随后加息的预期就可能越快。”</p>\n<h2>究竟加息多少次？</h2>\n<p>分析师普遍认为，美联储加快taper，是为2022年的一系列加息做好准备。</p>\n<p>英国金融时报援引资产管理公司Amundi全球固定收益投资组合经理Anne Beaudu表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 美联储的沟通非常明确：他们将加快缩减步伐，目的是为明年加息打开大门。\n</blockquote>\n<p>今年9月，美联储点阵图显示，政策制定者预计到2024年底共加息6次，使联邦基准利率升至1.8%。</p>\n<p>而自从美联储放“鹰”加上通胀数据爆表后，几乎每家华尔街银行都迅速调高了对美联储2024年底前加息次数的预测。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为，自上次FOMC会议以来，有关通胀和劳动力市场的新信息支持更快的缩减步伐和提前加息，其最新预计美联储分别在明年5月、7月和11月各加息一次，然后在2023年和2024年各加息两次，即<b>3年内加息7次。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cafa8d756d87faba0797b5df84178af\" tg-width=\"1393\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>此前预计2022年美联储加息次数为零，在最近改口后，<b>摩根士丹利发表了更为激进的加息看法，预计美联储3年内将总共加息8.5次。</b>其中，2022年加息2次，首次加息将在明年9月，2023年加息3.5次，2024年加息3次。</p>\n<p><b>美银则预计，美联储将在3年内将加息次数提高至9次</b>，其中2022年将出现两次加息，2023年和2024年将分别加息三次。这将使中值点接近美联储对2.5%中性利率的评估。</p>\n<p>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder预计，美联储可能在2022年加息两次，在2023年加息三到四次。</p>\n<h2>对明年的经济预测是什么？</h2>\n<p>美联储还将发布针对通胀、失业率和经济增长的预测。</p>\n<p>今年9月，美联储预测中值显示：<b>2022年美国经济将以3.8%的速度扩张，高盛预计，这一预测值将大幅下降</b>，以反映最新数据，2022年和2023年的预测中值将小幅下降，以反映更多预期加息的影响；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64080e48dfd93acaf12e73368b6d4abe\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>核心通胀指标2021年将稳定在3.7%，到2022年将降至2.3%，这一预测值需要上调</b>：目前核心通胀率在4.2%上下徘徊，一些经济学家预计，美联储对2022年核心通胀率的预测将更接近3%；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0d5b2e8769affe7636791113728e86\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"197\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>对失业率3.8%的预测，应该会保持稳定。</b>失业率目前为4.2%，已经低于美联储2021年4.7%的预估中值，并逐渐接近美联储2022年3.8%的预估中值。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞</a> (Jefferies) 的经济学家Aneta Markowska预计失业率将进一步降低，预计2022年失业率将降至3.5%，2023年降至3.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f24a386e45a6c0c318fb2eec3f40f6d\" tg-width=\"552\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>瑞穗证券美国首席经济学家Steven Ricchiuto表示，<b>美联储将明年通胀调高多少，将是市场预估明年加息幅度的关键。目前该预估是2-3次。</b></p>\n<p>此外，<b>许多经济学家指出，劳动力市场复苏的不平衡和新冠疫情带来的持久风险，建议美联储不要偏离耐心的做法太远。</b></p>\n<p>霍华德大学经济学家William Spriggs表示，加息对于解决目前的通胀问题无济于事，他表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 你无法用需求冲击工具来控制供应冲击，如果你的想法是试图提高资本成本，并导致更多的储蓄和更少的投资，那不是你摆脱这种局面的方式。\n</blockquote>\n<p>克罗尔研究所的全球首席经济学家梅根格林是敦促谨慎行事的人之一，尤其考虑到货币政策变化的影响需要时间才能发挥作用，她表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 按照定义，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">中央银行</a>需要更像油轮，而不是兰博基尼，美联储的这种转向感觉非常像兰博基尼。\n</blockquote>\n<h2>再见“暂时性”，你好……？</h2>\n<p>鲍威尔此前暗示FOMC可能会在这次会后声明中删除“暂时性”一词，那么美联储将如何描述通胀前景？</p>\n<p>投资研究公司Renaissance Macro的经济主管Neil Dutta认为，美联储只会说通胀“升高”，但不会试图解释它。</p>\n<p>巴克莱首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen认为，美联储将选择用“持久性”来描述通胀。</p>\n<p>而高盛认为，美联储会解释说，它认为当前的高通胀不太可能通过提高长期通胀预期而“留下永久性的印记”。对该声明进行更有意义的修改也是可能的，尤其是对“通胀持续低于长期目标2%”的表述。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe579db5f368b2ed361cafd2809b534f\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h2>如何处理资产负债表？</h2>\n<p>对市场来说，美联储对其资产负债表的看法也是一个很大的不确定因素。</p>\n<p>美联储资产负债表已经从疫情前（2020年1月）的4.1万亿美元膨胀至现在的8.7万亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c67ce5ec7ea824db8b8e8e71d198c98\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>“<b>如果鲍威尔突然站出来说，我们不需要维持目前的规模，市场会感到非常意外</b>，”贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder表示。他说，<b>美联储在加息后更有可能缩减资产负债表。</b></p>\n<p>而此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>认为，比起加息，进一步缩表更有可能：“如果加息不够条件，那么和加息一样，缩表也是一种标准化的货币政策工具。”</p>\n<p>瑞银表示，大多数分析师认为，在缩表之前，必须先加息，但它不认为这方面有任何硬性规定。<b>瑞银预计，在缩减购债期间，有关这些顺序的争论可能会加剧。</b></p>\n<p>道明证券首席美国宏观策略师Jim O 'Sullivan表示，“我们预计（这次会议）还不会出现明确的信号。”在上一个加息周期中，当短期利率达到1%-1.25%的区间时，美联储才开始收缩资产负债表。</p>\n<p><b>高盛则预计美联储缩表会从2023H1开始，即在第4次加息左右的时间。</b></p>\n<h2>“缩减”恐慌会再次上演吗？</h2>\n<p>高盛在其报告中乐观地表示，加快taper的决定，可能既反映了过去几个月通胀高于预期，也反映了美联储官员更加相信，加快taper不会像过去缩表那样冲击金融市场。</p>\n<p>高盛表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 我们从一系列研究中得出的经验法则——购买GDP 1%的债券量会使10年期美债收益率下降约4个基点，而taper本身将减少1350亿美元的债券总购买量，仅相当于GDP的0.5%多一点，意味着10年期美债收益率上升2个基点；另一条经验法则表明，这与加息2个基点对更广泛的金融状况、增长和通胀产生的影响大致相同。\n</blockquote>\n<p>然而，摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson远不及高盛乐观，他警告说，“<b>美联储转向更激进的缩减计划给资产价格带来的风险比大多数投资者认为的要大。</b> ”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>研究部此前通过对过往历史上美联储加息后的市场变化进行回顾后发现：增长放缓通常发生在加息的一年后。这与货币政策的滞后性有关，一般货币政策的全面效应可能需要几个季度才能显现。</p>\n<p>但Wilson表示，“<b>缩减正在收紧市场，如果不是收紧经济。</b>”</p>\n<p>Wilson承认，与两周前相比，奥密克戎现在看起来对经济增长的风险更低，这只会增加美联储比2014年上一次缩减购债时更快地缩减资产购买的可能性，然而，如果美联储按照这条路线执行，“<b>在我们看来，这将对资产价格产生影响；未来3-4个月内，美联储退出量化宽松的风险最大。</b>”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f82c5df9557c8dbd092965b742e01293\" tg-width=\"1230\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wilson认为，出于以下三个原因，这次的缩减与2014年有所不同：</p>\n<p><b>1、在 2014 年，美联储用了10个月的时间来缩减其量化宽松计划。这一次，他们将在四个半月内完成，快了一倍。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb6b3cbb36317f803144ca4458dffc07\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2、美股如今的估值要高得多，因此更容易受到流动性迅速减少的影响。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、增长现在正在减速，而2013-2014年还在加速。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/456d6b285c49fdab1e26c1ab98232402\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wilson表示，如果我们不得不预测，<b>美股将下降20%，而不是10%</b>，除非信贷市场或经济数据真的开始出现动摇（以致美联储放缓缩减步伐）。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>就在今夜！金融圈将迎来重大转变，事关全球市场</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n就在今夜！金融圈将迎来重大转变，事关全球市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-15 20:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647384><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储本年度最后一次货币政策会议即将到来。\n北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布利率决议，半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。\n目前市场普遍预计，美联储将在本次会议上宣布将Taper（缩减购债）的速度从每个月150亿美元翻倍至300亿美元，明年3月中旬之前完全结束Taper，并预计美联储还将在未来三年内进一步加息。\n\n如若果真如此，这将标志着美联储的再一次重大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647384\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123472eab1159c5e881f8e540a346014","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3647384","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191551960","content_text":"美联储本年度最后一次货币政策会议即将到来。\n北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布利率决议，半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。\n目前市场普遍预计，美联储将在本次会议上宣布将Taper（缩减购债）的速度从每个月150亿美元翻倍至300亿美元，明年3月中旬之前完全结束Taper，并预计美联储还将在未来三年内进一步加息。\n\n如若果真如此，这将标志着美联储的再一次重大政策转变。\n会不会有鸽派taper？\n如果说鲍威尔上次在国会听证会上发表的鹰派言论，还不足以让市场确信美联储会将taper速度加倍，那么在上周五公布的美国CPI数据创下近40年来最高后，市场获得了进一步确信的理由。\n因为通胀是目前美国消费者最关心的经济问题，其程度远远超过失业问题，由于通胀持续高企，近期拜登的支持率进一步下滑，民主党人越来越担心高通胀可能会对其2022年中期选举产生负面影响，温和派民主党人甚至正在推动美联储采取更为激进的货币政策以遏制通胀。\n显然，相比2018年美联储加息缩表，美联储和主席鲍威尔受到的来自白宫的压力要小得多。因为如今的通胀问题比2018年严重得多，并且本届政府不再像2018年那样专注于股市。\n资管机构Capital Alpha Partners分析师Ian Katz此前表示，鉴于民主党面临的政治压力，这种转变并不令人意外。如果通胀威胁到经济和民主党中期选举前景，那么鸽派就会少很多。\n尽管如此，仍有部分分析师认为美联储可能会展示一个相对较为鸽派的taper。\n摩根大通基金首席全球策略师David Kelly表示，“美联储鹰派立场的局限性”将显现出来。央行官员通常被描述为要么是警惕通胀、渴望收紧货币政策的鹰派，要么是更注重增长的鸽派。\nKelly表示：\n\n 美联储成员在现阶段过于频繁地展示他们鸽派的羽毛，以至于我们无法将他们误认为是一群鹰派。\n\n渣打银行北美宏观策略主管Steve Englander认为，美联储可能会温和地缩减购债规模，直至明月4月中旬结束。\nEnglander认为，每月减少250亿美元的债券购买将获得最大的支持，其在一份给客户的报告中表示，4月中旬结束taper将是温和的，因为“缩减购债的速度越快，投资者对随后加息的预期就可能越快。”\n究竟加息多少次？\n分析师普遍认为，美联储加快taper，是为2022年的一系列加息做好准备。\n英国金融时报援引资产管理公司Amundi全球固定收益投资组合经理Anne Beaudu表示：\n\n 美联储的沟通非常明确：他们将加快缩减步伐，目的是为明年加息打开大门。\n\n今年9月，美联储点阵图显示，政策制定者预计到2024年底共加息6次，使联邦基准利率升至1.8%。\n而自从美联储放“鹰”加上通胀数据爆表后，几乎每家华尔街银行都迅速调高了对美联储2024年底前加息次数的预测。\n高盛认为，自上次FOMC会议以来，有关通胀和劳动力市场的新信息支持更快的缩减步伐和提前加息，其最新预计美联储分别在明年5月、7月和11月各加息一次，然后在2023年和2024年各加息两次，即3年内加息7次。\n\n摩根士丹利此前预计2022年美联储加息次数为零，在最近改口后，摩根士丹利发表了更为激进的加息看法，预计美联储3年内将总共加息8.5次。其中，2022年加息2次，首次加息将在明年9月，2023年加息3.5次，2024年加息3次。\n美银则预计，美联储将在3年内将加息次数提高至9次，其中2022年将出现两次加息，2023年和2024年将分别加息三次。这将使中值点接近美联储对2.5%中性利率的评估。\n此外，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder预计，美联储可能在2022年加息两次，在2023年加息三到四次。\n对明年的经济预测是什么？\n美联储还将发布针对通胀、失业率和经济增长的预测。\n今年9月，美联储预测中值显示：2022年美国经济将以3.8%的速度扩张，高盛预计，这一预测值将大幅下降，以反映最新数据，2022年和2023年的预测中值将小幅下降，以反映更多预期加息的影响；\n\n核心通胀指标2021年将稳定在3.7%，到2022年将降至2.3%，这一预测值需要上调：目前核心通胀率在4.2%上下徘徊，一些经济学家预计，美联储对2022年核心通胀率的预测将更接近3%；\n\n对失业率3.8%的预测，应该会保持稳定。失业率目前为4.2%，已经低于美联储2021年4.7%的预估中值，并逐渐接近美联储2022年3.8%的预估中值。杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 的经济学家Aneta Markowska预计失业率将进一步降低，预计2022年失业率将降至3.5%，2023年降至3.4%。\n\n瑞穗证券美国首席经济学家Steven Ricchiuto表示，美联储将明年通胀调高多少，将是市场预估明年加息幅度的关键。目前该预估是2-3次。\n此外，许多经济学家指出，劳动力市场复苏的不平衡和新冠疫情带来的持久风险，建议美联储不要偏离耐心的做法太远。\n霍华德大学经济学家William Spriggs表示，加息对于解决目前的通胀问题无济于事，他表示：\n\n 你无法用需求冲击工具来控制供应冲击，如果你的想法是试图提高资本成本，并导致更多的储蓄和更少的投资，那不是你摆脱这种局面的方式。\n\n克罗尔研究所的全球首席经济学家梅根格林是敦促谨慎行事的人之一，尤其考虑到货币政策变化的影响需要时间才能发挥作用，她表示：\n\n 按照定义，中央银行需要更像油轮，而不是兰博基尼，美联储的这种转向感觉非常像兰博基尼。\n\n再见“暂时性”，你好……？\n鲍威尔此前暗示FOMC可能会在这次会后声明中删除“暂时性”一词，那么美联储将如何描述通胀前景？\n投资研究公司Renaissance Macro的经济主管Neil Dutta认为，美联储只会说通胀“升高”，但不会试图解释它。\n巴克莱首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen认为，美联储将选择用“持久性”来描述通胀。\n而高盛认为，美联储会解释说，它认为当前的高通胀不太可能通过提高长期通胀预期而“留下永久性的印记”。对该声明进行更有意义的修改也是可能的，尤其是对“通胀持续低于长期目标2%”的表述。\n\n如何处理资产负债表？\n对市场来说，美联储对其资产负债表的看法也是一个很大的不确定因素。\n美联储资产负债表已经从疫情前（2020年1月）的4.1万亿美元膨胀至现在的8.7万亿美元。\n\n“如果鲍威尔突然站出来说，我们不需要维持目前的规模，市场会感到非常意外，”贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder表示。他说，美联储在加息后更有可能缩减资产负债表。\n而此前瑞银认为，比起加息，进一步缩表更有可能：“如果加息不够条件，那么和加息一样，缩表也是一种标准化的货币政策工具。”\n瑞银表示，大多数分析师认为，在缩表之前，必须先加息，但它不认为这方面有任何硬性规定。瑞银预计，在缩减购债期间，有关这些顺序的争论可能会加剧。\n道明证券首席美国宏观策略师Jim O 'Sullivan表示，“我们预计（这次会议）还不会出现明确的信号。”在上一个加息周期中，当短期利率达到1%-1.25%的区间时，美联储才开始收缩资产负债表。\n高盛则预计美联储缩表会从2023H1开始，即在第4次加息左右的时间。\n“缩减”恐慌会再次上演吗？\n高盛在其报告中乐观地表示，加快taper的决定，可能既反映了过去几个月通胀高于预期，也反映了美联储官员更加相信，加快taper不会像过去缩表那样冲击金融市场。\n高盛表示：\n\n 我们从一系列研究中得出的经验法则——购买GDP 1%的债券量会使10年期美债收益率下降约4个基点，而taper本身将减少1350亿美元的债券总购买量，仅相当于GDP的0.5%多一点，意味着10年期美债收益率上升2个基点；另一条经验法则表明，这与加息2个基点对更广泛的金融状况、增长和通胀产生的影响大致相同。\n\n然而，摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson远不及高盛乐观，他警告说，“美联储转向更激进的缩减计划给资产价格带来的风险比大多数投资者认为的要大。 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年，美联储用了10个月的时间来缩减其量化宽松计划。这一次，他们将在四个半月内完成，快了一倍。\n\n2、美股如今的估值要高得多，因此更容易受到流动性迅速减少的影响。\n3、增长现在正在减速，而2013-2014年还在加速。\n\nWilson表示，如果我们不得不预测，美股将下降20%，而不是10%，除非信贷市场或经济数据真的开始出现动摇（以致美联储放缓缩减步伐）。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883718684,"gmtCreate":1631272867948,"gmtModify":1631275046089,"author":{"id":"3548566466888210","authorId":"3548566466888210","name":"龙城","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9c5f4976bdda0e0701c3b44ba8ca0bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548566466888210","authorIdStr":"3548566466888210"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别忽悠人了？要钱的","listText":"别忽悠人了？要钱的","text":"别忽悠人了？要钱的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883718684","repostId":"883730109","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":883730109,"gmtCreate":1631271511001,"gmtModify":1631883662695,"author":{"id":"4092913714708820","authorId":"4092913714708820","name":"donggzz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9f4ab88e1a9c17329a09492bc25522","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092913714708820","authorIdStr":"4092913714708820"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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