小象00的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小象00

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2主题

0勋章

2020-10-06

$科尔士百货(KSS)$哈哈

2020-06-24

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$大户真皮

2020-05-15

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$这股不能瞎操作

2020-05-13

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$弹药耗尽，躺好了

2020-04-29

$娱乐房地产依托(EPR)$[笑哭] 明知追高还是买了，就是喜欢咋办

2020-04-25

稳住，[呆住] 第二次入手第二次亏了

2020-04-23

[开心]

2020-04-22

[开心] ♪٩(´ω`)و♪亏了

2020-04-22

沙特是往死里搞

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-04-18

$邓伯瑞资源(DNR)$大单砸盘这操作怎么破

2020-04-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$到800很容易吧

2020-04-17

$邓伯瑞资源(DNR)$长期潜伏

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22:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"由盛转衰，美国页岩油的悲歌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2029363039","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"3月9日开启的原油价格战推动油价暴跌，持续一个月多，不断创造出新的“历史性的一刻”。昨晚（4月20日，周一）甚至出现了这样一幕——美国5月份的西德州轻质原油期货WTI价格跌至负值，最后收盘时下挫超过3","content":"<p><span>3月9日开启的原油价格战推动油价暴跌，持续一个月多，不断创造出新的“历史性的一刻”。昨晚（4月20日，周一）甚至出现了这样一幕——美国5月份的西德州轻质原油期货WTI价格跌至负值，最后收盘时下挫超过300%，收于-37.65美元每桶。</span></p><p><span>“4.20负油价”主要是合约换月造成的悲剧。按照交易规则，到4月21日，持有5月合约的人有两个选择，一是卖掉5月合约同时买进6月的，二是履行这份合约买进原油实货。但问题在于，现在储油空间接近爆满，就算买进原油也根本没有地方存放。而且经济形势不佳，短期内无法寄希望于油价大涨，把仓库里堆积的油卖出去。在第二个选项难以执行的情况下，5月合约就成了卖不掉的烫手山芋，价格一跌再跌，跟6月合约的价格之间出现了史无前例的差值，也反映出大家对储油市场极大的忧虑。</span><span><b>此外，还有一点值得警惕，如果5月中旬油价还不能抬头，6月合约可能还会重蹈5月的覆辙。</b></span></p><p><span>美国页岩油也面临实质性的由盛而衰的转变。4月1日，美国怀汀石油公司在未及时获得“补血续命”的情况下，申请破产，这是在低油价背景下第一家破产的美国页岩油公司，而随着低油价周期的开启，页岩油行业的寒冬或许刚刚到来。</span></p><p><b><span>兴起：高油价让页岩油复燃</span></b></p><p><span>虽然页岩油被认为是新鲜事物，但早在中世纪欧洲人就记录过页岩油的研究。与常规石油和天然气形成于多孔岩层不同，这种页岩油紧密结合在密度很大的岩石中。18世纪30年代，法国开始对这种石油进行商业化生产。19世纪中期，欧洲很多国家、美国及加拿大也加快对页岩油的商业化生产。</span></p><p><span>鲸油的使用以及常规原油的开发，使得世界很多地方不再生产成本较高的页岩油。（注：鲸油是一种海生动物油。由鲸的皮下组织、内脏和骨经熬煮而得的油脂。19世纪西北欧一些捕鱼者发现鲸油可以燃烧，叠加工业逐渐发展，夜间生产需要，鲸油需求逐渐提高。）</span></p><p><span>首先是更廉价的鲸油——1820年到1860年，是美国捕鲸业的“黄金时期”，1851年美国小说家赫尔曼·梅尔维尔的《白鲸》便是这个背景下创作的，当时鲸油是主要的照明原料，新兴工业国家诸如英国、荷兰、法国、挪威等都曾参与过大规模的捕鲸活动。200多年的疯狂猎杀，鲸鱼数量急剧减少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95a82ce64464d78a30c8e455b66ea68\"><span>|&nbsp;被捕获的巨型蓝鲸</span></p><p><b><span>改变鲸鱼命运的是一口油井。</span></b><span>1859年8月27日，美国科农·德雷克上校在宾夕法尼亚打出了第一口现代工业油井，从此捕鲸业逐渐退出历史舞台，原油勘探开采成为美国梦的代表，美国冒险者的天堂。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5231831c7c047eb841f8819e881f71a\"><span>| 宾夕法尼亚打出第一口现代工业油井</span></p><p><span>作为最早勘探开采原油的国家，美国一度是世界石油开采中心。</span><b><span>随着中东石油开采的崛起，美国原油产量从1986年起开始逐渐衰落，随着产量递减，美国开始重新研究性价比不那么高的页岩油。</span></b></p><p><b><span>真正让不经济的页岩油重新引起人们兴趣的是2009年开启的高油价。</span></b><span>随着中国加入WTO，全球贸易的推进，世界对能源需求快速增长，2003年布伦特原油价格从24美元/桶一路涨到2008年147美元/桶，虽然此后经历了2008年金融危机，但随后2011年油价再次冲上110美元/桶的高位。这让页岩油产量增长滞后页岩气6年后于2011年爆发，德克萨斯州的米德兰好像重现了20世纪70年代的石油繁荣景象，数千名工人蜂拥而至寻找他们的财富，导致房价及钻机价格一路飞涨。</span></p><p><b><span>危机：米德兰地区的压力</span></b></p><p><span>就像曾经的捕鲸业和上世纪美国常规原油的勘探开采，富于冒险的美国人不会放过任何一个发财致富的机会。随着美国页岩油技术革命成功，页岩油生产商如雨后春笋般崛起，一度高达7000多家。</span></p><p><span>美国页岩油生产集中在7个页岩油气区块，其中二叠纪盆地（Permian）、鹰福特（Eagle Ford）和贝肯（Bakken）3大区块原油产量占7大油气区的80%以上。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/843a1a645d9c49719773f9475e6a7fdb\"><span>|&nbsp;美国页岩油分布</span></p><p><b><span>页岩油开采是一个重资产行业，从钻井、完井、设备到运营，都需要持续的资本投入。</span></b><span>钻井平均时间在2个月左右，但完井时间从3个月到1年不等，主要取决于经济性以及市场供需——当市场价格上涨时，钻井未完井（DUC，Drilled but uncompleted，也叫库存井）可以加快转变为生产井，推高产量，而当油价下跌时，钻井未完井可以闲置等待，从数据上主要体现为完井数量的下降。</span></p><p><span>页岩油生产需要持续成本投入的另一个原因，在于油井的衰减速度非常快。页岩油井产量一般在完井后的第二个月产量达到峰值，半年内产量会衰减一半，2年后会失去经济价值。</span></p><p><b><span>这些特征决定了页岩油开采成本比常规油气开采成本要高。</span></b></p><p><span>具体有多高呢？我们简单看下各家公司的财报就能大概推算。</span></p><p><span>美国主要页岩油企业包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>（Chevron）、EOG、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">马拉松石油</a>（Marathon Oil）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLR\">大陆能源</a>（Continental Resource）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CXO\">康休</a>资源公司（Concho Resource），它们年产量基本在1亿桶以上，产区基本在二叠纪、鹰福特和贝肯三大产区。</span><b><span>拿EOG2018年产出2.63亿桶油当量，成本支出128亿美元计，折算下来每桶原油成本是48.7美元。</span></b></p><p><span>可以采用同样的方法去计算其余几家页岩油公司成本。雪佛龙、EOG、大陆能源、康休资源公司2018年成本分别在48美元/桶、49美元/桶、32美元/桶、32美元/桶，大概代表了二叠纪、贝肯及鹰福特区块的成本区间。</span></p><p><b><span>总之，当前油价已经大幅低于页岩油开采成本。</span></b><span>如果算上运输价格，有些地方的原油井口价甚至可能为负。</span></p><p><b><span>油价为负，其实跟倒牛奶的逻辑一样，就是没有库存收储。</span></b><span>牛奶可以直接倒掉，但生产出来的原油的处理并不能像倒牛奶一样简单——需要高昂的处置成本。因为下游需求很弱，疫情不确定何时结束，有限的库存就成了紧俏资源，有关系的企业会将库存预订掉，剩下企业还需要在运输和库存紧张的情况下，考虑生产后的原油处置，美国政府不得不在此背景下，宣布大规模收储，以吸纳过剩产量。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c8910bff4f4f3eaa051e869b1f079d\"><span>| 大萧条时期倾倒牛奶</span></p><p><span>如果疫情得不到快速控制，美国页岩油企业不得不面临被迫减产。这还不是问题的全部，更严重的问题是，退出意味着沉没成本引发不可恢复性的亏损，影响企业抵押信贷资质，银行可能不会再向企业持续融资。</span></p><p><span>实际上，美国页岩油公司2019年开始已经看到游戏的不可持续性。2019年疲弱的需求限制了油价的恢复，加上逆全球化的趋势以及全球央行有限的货币宽松能力，页岩油公司已经开始收缩战线，通过消耗钻井未完井及提高单井效率来增加总产量，而钻机数量却在一直下降，表明公司对新钻井的信心不足。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd291b6162b04f71bbf30feb58e62624\"><span>| 2019年下半年来美国DUC及钻机数量持续下降</span></p><p><span>而银行对页岩油公司继续资金支持的信心也不足。一方面持续几年的低油价环境，并没有给页岩油公司带来足够的现金流和安全垫，另一方面，这些页岩油企业还面临着较高的到期债务压力。</span></p><p><b><span>这是一个结构问题，而非周期问题。</span></b><span>二叠纪盆地作为最大的页岩油产区，面临极大的页岩油公司整合压力。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c39ae3e0153411da49a11da27ac60d0\"><b><span>未来：低油价区间页岩油的重整</span></b></p><p><b><span>2014-2016年，拯救页岩油的是曾经的高油价与华尔街不计成本的信任。</span></b><span>2011-2013年油价躺在110美元/桶的舒服区间，美沙俄都很惬意，沙特也并没有意识到美国页岩油崛起会对其构成威胁，沙特能源大臣纳伊米引用2011年欧佩克《世界石油展望》的话说，“页岩油不过是原油供应的边际附加来源”。</span></p><p><span>2014年即便油价暴跌，全年均价也达到99.45美元/桶，在2015-2016年底OPEC+一直没有达成新的减产协议，价格战继续的情况下，油价全年均价依然在53.60美元/桶和45.13美元/桶的区间，能够维持页岩油公司的盈利平衡。</span></p><p><b><span>然而当前情况发生了变化，这一轮油价暴跌的前三年，页岩油公司并没有准备好足够的安全垫。</span></b><span>2017-2019年，原油平均价格在54.74美元/桶、71.69美元/桶、64.16美元/桶，虽然企业能够盈利，但利润空间早已不是2011-2013年的水平，产量的持续上升，很大程度由债务推动。</span></p><p><span>银行还会再继续信任页岩油公司持续输血吗？主要取决于抵押资产的质量和现金流。页岩油公司有强大的快速生产能力，而且美国市场是反垄断的，这就意味着油价只要超过成本上涨，追求盈利的公司就会持续加大产出，OPEC+也不会任由美国侵蚀市场份额，而使得油价较难维持高位。</span></p><p><span>1960年建立的OPEC经历了60年风雨，随着美国页岩油搅局正在逐渐失去影响力。天下大势分久必合合久必分，页岩油出来后，越来越难以维持一个各方满意的价格，大家指望沙特，就像2014年一样，而沙特也不堪重负正在逐渐失去市场份额，所以未来更多趋势会向市场化方向发展，油价很可能会长期进入一个低价区间。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235d56aa5b2240feb1e517283d329644\"><span>| 还记得2018年底讨论卡塔尔退出OPEC的影响吗？</span></p><p><b><span>这次油价暴跌并非周期问题，更多是结构问题。</span></b><span>这轮油价暴跌，需要美国页岩油经历重组后让出一部分市场份额，而让出的方式就是通过价格战争——使得美国页岩油不能回到较高油价而获得足够的抵押资金。</span></p><p><span>就像俄罗斯说的，俄罗斯对45美元/桶的油价感到舒适，其背后主要剑指美国页岩油——页岩油成本在45美元/桶左右，如果这样的价格区间，美国页岩油是很难获得持续的资金支持的，产量下降是必然的。</span></p><p><span>页岩油生产商会经历大鱼吃小鱼的整合，供给侧产能出清才是油价回归的必然之路。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>由盛转衰，美国页岩油的悲歌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n由盛转衰，美国页岩油的悲歌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-21 22:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>3月9日开启的原油价格战推动油价暴跌，持续一个月多，不断创造出新的“历史性的一刻”。昨晚（4月20日，周一）甚至出现了这样一幕——美国5月份的西德州轻质原油期货WTI价格跌至负值，最后收盘时下挫超过300%，收于-37.65美元每桶。</span></p><p><span>“4.20负油价”主要是合约换月造成的悲剧。按照交易规则，到4月21日，持有5月合约的人有两个选择，一是卖掉5月合约同时买进6月的，二是履行这份合约买进原油实货。但问题在于，现在储油空间接近爆满，就算买进原油也根本没有地方存放。而且经济形势不佳，短期内无法寄希望于油价大涨，把仓库里堆积的油卖出去。在第二个选项难以执行的情况下，5月合约就成了卖不掉的烫手山芋，价格一跌再跌，跟6月合约的价格之间出现了史无前例的差值，也反映出大家对储油市场极大的忧虑。</span><span><b>此外，还有一点值得警惕，如果5月中旬油价还不能抬头，6月合约可能还会重蹈5月的覆辙。</b></span></p><p><span>美国页岩油也面临实质性的由盛而衰的转变。4月1日，美国怀汀石油公司在未及时获得“补血续命”的情况下，申请破产，这是在低油价背景下第一家破产的美国页岩油公司，而随着低油价周期的开启，页岩油行业的寒冬或许刚刚到来。</span></p><p><b><span>兴起：高油价让页岩油复燃</span></b></p><p><span>虽然页岩油被认为是新鲜事物，但早在中世纪欧洲人就记录过页岩油的研究。与常规石油和天然气形成于多孔岩层不同，这种页岩油紧密结合在密度很大的岩石中。18世纪30年代，法国开始对这种石油进行商业化生产。19世纪中期，欧洲很多国家、美国及加拿大也加快对页岩油的商业化生产。</span></p><p><span>鲸油的使用以及常规原油的开发，使得世界很多地方不再生产成本较高的页岩油。（注：鲸油是一种海生动物油。由鲸的皮下组织、内脏和骨经熬煮而得的油脂。19世纪西北欧一些捕鱼者发现鲸油可以燃烧，叠加工业逐渐发展，夜间生产需要，鲸油需求逐渐提高。）</span></p><p><span>首先是更廉价的鲸油——1820年到1860年，是美国捕鲸业的“黄金时期”，1851年美国小说家赫尔曼·梅尔维尔的《白鲸》便是这个背景下创作的，当时鲸油是主要的照明原料，新兴工业国家诸如英国、荷兰、法国、挪威等都曾参与过大规模的捕鲸活动。200多年的疯狂猎杀，鲸鱼数量急剧减少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95a82ce64464d78a30c8e455b66ea68\"><span>|&nbsp;被捕获的巨型蓝鲸</span></p><p><b><span>改变鲸鱼命运的是一口油井。</span></b><span>1859年8月27日，美国科农·德雷克上校在宾夕法尼亚打出了第一口现代工业油井，从此捕鲸业逐渐退出历史舞台，原油勘探开采成为美国梦的代表，美国冒险者的天堂。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5231831c7c047eb841f8819e881f71a\"><span>| 宾夕法尼亚打出第一口现代工业油井</span></p><p><span>作为最早勘探开采原油的国家，美国一度是世界石油开采中心。</span><b><span>随着中东石油开采的崛起，美国原油产量从1986年起开始逐渐衰落，随着产量递减，美国开始重新研究性价比不那么高的页岩油。</span></b></p><p><b><span>真正让不经济的页岩油重新引起人们兴趣的是2009年开启的高油价。</span></b><span>随着中国加入WTO，全球贸易的推进，世界对能源需求快速增长，2003年布伦特原油价格从24美元/桶一路涨到2008年147美元/桶，虽然此后经历了2008年金融危机，但随后2011年油价再次冲上110美元/桶的高位。这让页岩油产量增长滞后页岩气6年后于2011年爆发，德克萨斯州的米德兰好像重现了20世纪70年代的石油繁荣景象，数千名工人蜂拥而至寻找他们的财富，导致房价及钻机价格一路飞涨。</span></p><p><b><span>危机：米德兰地区的压力</span></b></p><p><span>就像曾经的捕鲸业和上世纪美国常规原油的勘探开采，富于冒险的美国人不会放过任何一个发财致富的机会。随着美国页岩油技术革命成功，页岩油生产商如雨后春笋般崛起，一度高达7000多家。</span></p><p><span>美国页岩油生产集中在7个页岩油气区块，其中二叠纪盆地（Permian）、鹰福特（Eagle Ford）和贝肯（Bakken）3大区块原油产量占7大油气区的80%以上。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/843a1a645d9c49719773f9475e6a7fdb\"><span>|&nbsp;美国页岩油分布</span></p><p><b><span>页岩油开采是一个重资产行业，从钻井、完井、设备到运营，都需要持续的资本投入。</span></b><span>钻井平均时间在2个月左右，但完井时间从3个月到1年不等，主要取决于经济性以及市场供需——当市场价格上涨时，钻井未完井（DUC，Drilled but uncompleted，也叫库存井）可以加快转变为生产井，推高产量，而当油价下跌时，钻井未完井可以闲置等待，从数据上主要体现为完井数量的下降。</span></p><p><span>页岩油生产需要持续成本投入的另一个原因，在于油井的衰减速度非常快。页岩油井产量一般在完井后的第二个月产量达到峰值，半年内产量会衰减一半，2年后会失去经济价值。</span></p><p><b><span>这些特征决定了页岩油开采成本比常规油气开采成本要高。</span></b></p><p><span>具体有多高呢？我们简单看下各家公司的财报就能大概推算。</span></p><p><span>美国主要页岩油企业包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>（Chevron）、EOG、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">马拉松石油</a>（Marathon Oil）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLR\">大陆能源</a>（Continental Resource）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CXO\">康休</a>资源公司（Concho Resource），它们年产量基本在1亿桶以上，产区基本在二叠纪、鹰福特和贝肯三大产区。</span><b><span>拿EOG2018年产出2.63亿桶油当量，成本支出128亿美元计，折算下来每桶原油成本是48.7美元。</span></b></p><p><span>可以采用同样的方法去计算其余几家页岩油公司成本。雪佛龙、EOG、大陆能源、康休资源公司2018年成本分别在48美元/桶、49美元/桶、32美元/桶、32美元/桶，大概代表了二叠纪、贝肯及鹰福特区块的成本区间。</span></p><p><b><span>总之，当前油价已经大幅低于页岩油开采成本。</span></b><span>如果算上运输价格，有些地方的原油井口价甚至可能为负。</span></p><p><b><span>油价为负，其实跟倒牛奶的逻辑一样，就是没有库存收储。</span></b><span>牛奶可以直接倒掉，但生产出来的原油的处理并不能像倒牛奶一样简单——需要高昂的处置成本。因为下游需求很弱，疫情不确定何时结束，有限的库存就成了紧俏资源，有关系的企业会将库存预订掉，剩下企业还需要在运输和库存紧张的情况下，考虑生产后的原油处置，美国政府不得不在此背景下，宣布大规模收储，以吸纳过剩产量。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c8910bff4f4f3eaa051e869b1f079d\"><span>| 大萧条时期倾倒牛奶</span></p><p><span>如果疫情得不到快速控制，美国页岩油企业不得不面临被迫减产。这还不是问题的全部，更严重的问题是，退出意味着沉没成本引发不可恢复性的亏损，影响企业抵押信贷资质，银行可能不会再向企业持续融资。</span></p><p><span>实际上，美国页岩油公司2019年开始已经看到游戏的不可持续性。2019年疲弱的需求限制了油价的恢复，加上逆全球化的趋势以及全球央行有限的货币宽松能力，页岩油公司已经开始收缩战线，通过消耗钻井未完井及提高单井效率来增加总产量，而钻机数量却在一直下降，表明公司对新钻井的信心不足。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd291b6162b04f71bbf30feb58e62624\"><span>| 2019年下半年来美国DUC及钻机数量持续下降</span></p><p><span>而银行对页岩油公司继续资金支持的信心也不足。一方面持续几年的低油价环境，并没有给页岩油公司带来足够的现金流和安全垫，另一方面，这些页岩油企业还面临着较高的到期债务压力。</span></p><p><b><span>这是一个结构问题，而非周期问题。</span></b><span>二叠纪盆地作为最大的页岩油产区，面临极大的页岩油公司整合压力。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c39ae3e0153411da49a11da27ac60d0\"><b><span>未来：低油价区间页岩油的重整</span></b></p><p><b><span>2014-2016年，拯救页岩油的是曾经的高油价与华尔街不计成本的信任。</span></b><span>2011-2013年油价躺在110美元/桶的舒服区间，美沙俄都很惬意，沙特也并没有意识到美国页岩油崛起会对其构成威胁，沙特能源大臣纳伊米引用2011年欧佩克《世界石油展望》的话说，“页岩油不过是原油供应的边际附加来源”。</span></p><p><span>2014年即便油价暴跌，全年均价也达到99.45美元/桶，在2015-2016年底OPEC+一直没有达成新的减产协议，价格战继续的情况下，油价全年均价依然在53.60美元/桶和45.13美元/桶的区间，能够维持页岩油公司的盈利平衡。</span></p><p><b><span>然而当前情况发生了变化，这一轮油价暴跌的前三年，页岩油公司并没有准备好足够的安全垫。</span></b><span>2017-2019年，原油平均价格在54.74美元/桶、71.69美元/桶、64.16美元/桶，虽然企业能够盈利，但利润空间早已不是2011-2013年的水平，产量的持续上升，很大程度由债务推动。</span></p><p><span>银行还会再继续信任页岩油公司持续输血吗？主要取决于抵押资产的质量和现金流。页岩油公司有强大的快速生产能力，而且美国市场是反垄断的，这就意味着油价只要超过成本上涨，追求盈利的公司就会持续加大产出，OPEC+也不会任由美国侵蚀市场份额，而使得油价较难维持高位。</span></p><p><span>1960年建立的OPEC经历了60年风雨，随着美国页岩油搅局正在逐渐失去影响力。天下大势分久必合合久必分，页岩油出来后，越来越难以维持一个各方满意的价格，大家指望沙特，就像2014年一样，而沙特也不堪重负正在逐渐失去市场份额，所以未来更多趋势会向市场化方向发展，油价很可能会长期进入一个低价区间。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235d56aa5b2240feb1e517283d329644\"><span>| 还记得2018年底讨论卡塔尔退出OPEC的影响吗？</span></p><p><b><span>这次油价暴跌并非周期问题，更多是结构问题。</span></b><span>这轮油价暴跌，需要美国页岩油经历重组后让出一部分市场份额，而让出的方式就是通过价格战争——使得美国页岩油不能回到较高油价而获得足够的抵押资金。</span></p><p><span>就像俄罗斯说的，俄罗斯对45美元/桶的油价感到舒适，其背后主要剑指美国页岩油——页岩油成本在45美元/桶左右，如果这样的价格区间，美国页岩油是很难获得持续的资金支持的，产量下降是必然的。</span></p><p><span>页岩油生产商会经历大鱼吃小鱼的整合，供给侧产能出清才是油价回归的必然之路。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c39ae3e0153411da49a11da27ac60d0","relate_stocks":{"UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2029363039","content_text":"3月9日开启的原油价格战推动油价暴跌，持续一个月多，不断创造出新的“历史性的一刻”。昨晚（4月20日，周一）甚至出现了这样一幕——美国5月份的西德州轻质原油期货WTI价格跌至负值，最后收盘时下挫超过300%，收于-37.65美元每桶。“4.20负油价”主要是合约换月造成的悲剧。按照交易规则，到4月21日，持有5月合约的人有两个选择，一是卖掉5月合约同时买进6月的，二是履行这份合约买进原油实货。但问题在于，现在储油空间接近爆满，就算买进原油也根本没有地方存放。而且经济形势不佳，短期内无法寄希望于油价大涨，把仓库里堆积的油卖出去。在第二个选项难以执行的情况下，5月合约就成了卖不掉的烫手山芋，价格一跌再跌，跟6月合约的价格之间出现了史无前例的差值，也反映出大家对储油市场极大的忧虑。此外，还有一点值得警惕，如果5月中旬油价还不能抬头，6月合约可能还会重蹈5月的覆辙。美国页岩油也面临实质性的由盛而衰的转变。4月1日，美国怀汀石油公司在未及时获得“补血续命”的情况下，申请破产，这是在低油价背景下第一家破产的美国页岩油公司，而随着低油价周期的开启，页岩油行业的寒冬或许刚刚到来。兴起：高油价让页岩油复燃虽然页岩油被认为是新鲜事物，但早在中世纪欧洲人就记录过页岩油的研究。与常规石油和天然气形成于多孔岩层不同，这种页岩油紧密结合在密度很大的岩石中。18世纪30年代，法国开始对这种石油进行商业化生产。19世纪中期，欧洲很多国家、美国及加拿大也加快对页岩油的商业化生产。鲸油的使用以及常规原油的开发，使得世界很多地方不再生产成本较高的页岩油。（注：鲸油是一种海生动物油。由鲸的皮下组织、内脏和骨经熬煮而得的油脂。19世纪西北欧一些捕鱼者发现鲸油可以燃烧，叠加工业逐渐发展，夜间生产需要，鲸油需求逐渐提高。）首先是更廉价的鲸油——1820年到1860年，是美国捕鲸业的“黄金时期”，1851年美国小说家赫尔曼·梅尔维尔的《白鲸》便是这个背景下创作的，当时鲸油是主要的照明原料，新兴工业国家诸如英国、荷兰、法国、挪威等都曾参与过大规模的捕鲸活动。200多年的疯狂猎杀，鲸鱼数量急剧减少。| 被捕获的巨型蓝鲸改变鲸鱼命运的是一口油井。1859年8月27日，美国科农·德雷克上校在宾夕法尼亚打出了第一口现代工业油井，从此捕鲸业逐渐退出历史舞台，原油勘探开采成为美国梦的代表，美国冒险者的天堂。| 宾夕法尼亚打出第一口现代工业油井作为最早勘探开采原油的国家，美国一度是世界石油开采中心。随着中东石油开采的崛起，美国原油产量从1986年起开始逐渐衰落，随着产量递减，美国开始重新研究性价比不那么高的页岩油。真正让不经济的页岩油重新引起人们兴趣的是2009年开启的高油价。随着中国加入WTO，全球贸易的推进，世界对能源需求快速增长，2003年布伦特原油价格从24美元/桶一路涨到2008年147美元/桶，虽然此后经历了2008年金融危机，但随后2011年油价再次冲上110美元/桶的高位。这让页岩油产量增长滞后页岩气6年后于2011年爆发，德克萨斯州的米德兰好像重现了20世纪70年代的石油繁荣景象，数千名工人蜂拥而至寻找他们的财富，导致房价及钻机价格一路飞涨。危机：米德兰地区的压力就像曾经的捕鲸业和上世纪美国常规原油的勘探开采，富于冒险的美国人不会放过任何一个发财致富的机会。随着美国页岩油技术革命成功，页岩油生产商如雨后春笋般崛起，一度高达7000多家。美国页岩油生产集中在7个页岩油气区块，其中二叠纪盆地（Permian）、鹰福特（Eagle Ford）和贝肯（Bakken）3大区块原油产量占7大油气区的80%以上。| 美国页岩油分布页岩油开采是一个重资产行业，从钻井、完井、设备到运营，都需要持续的资本投入。钻井平均时间在2个月左右，但完井时间从3个月到1年不等，主要取决于经济性以及市场供需——当市场价格上涨时，钻井未完井（DUC，Drilled but uncompleted，也叫库存井）可以加快转变为生产井，推高产量，而当油价下跌时，钻井未完井可以闲置等待，从数据上主要体现为完井数量的下降。页岩油生产需要持续成本投入的另一个原因，在于油井的衰减速度非常快。页岩油井产量一般在完井后的第二个月产量达到峰值，半年内产量会衰减一半，2年后会失去经济价值。这些特征决定了页岩油开采成本比常规油气开采成本要高。具体有多高呢？我们简单看下各家公司的财报就能大概推算。美国主要页岩油企业包括雪佛龙（Chevron）、EOG、马拉松石油（Marathon Oil）、大陆能源（Continental Resource）、康休资源公司（Concho Resource），它们年产量基本在1亿桶以上，产区基本在二叠纪、鹰福特和贝肯三大产区。拿EOG2018年产出2.63亿桶油当量，成本支出128亿美元计，折算下来每桶原油成本是48.7美元。可以采用同样的方法去计算其余几家页岩油公司成本。雪佛龙、EOG、大陆能源、康休资源公司2018年成本分别在48美元/桶、49美元/桶、32美元/桶、32美元/桶，大概代表了二叠纪、贝肯及鹰福特区块的成本区间。总之，当前油价已经大幅低于页岩油开采成本。如果算上运输价格，有些地方的原油井口价甚至可能为负。油价为负，其实跟倒牛奶的逻辑一样，就是没有库存收储。牛奶可以直接倒掉，但生产出来的原油的处理并不能像倒牛奶一样简单——需要高昂的处置成本。因为下游需求很弱，疫情不确定何时结束，有限的库存就成了紧俏资源，有关系的企业会将库存预订掉，剩下企业还需要在运输和库存紧张的情况下，考虑生产后的原油处置，美国政府不得不在此背景下，宣布大规模收储，以吸纳过剩产量。| 大萧条时期倾倒牛奶如果疫情得不到快速控制，美国页岩油企业不得不面临被迫减产。这还不是问题的全部，更严重的问题是，退出意味着沉没成本引发不可恢复性的亏损，影响企业抵押信贷资质，银行可能不会再向企业持续融资。实际上，美国页岩油公司2019年开始已经看到游戏的不可持续性。2019年疲弱的需求限制了油价的恢复，加上逆全球化的趋势以及全球央行有限的货币宽松能力，页岩油公司已经开始收缩战线，通过消耗钻井未完井及提高单井效率来增加总产量，而钻机数量却在一直下降，表明公司对新钻井的信心不足。| 2019年下半年来美国DUC及钻机数量持续下降而银行对页岩油公司继续资金支持的信心也不足。一方面持续几年的低油价环境，并没有给页岩油公司带来足够的现金流和安全垫，另一方面，这些页岩油企业还面临着较高的到期债务压力。这是一个结构问题，而非周期问题。二叠纪盆地作为最大的页岩油产区，面临极大的页岩油公司整合压力。未来：低油价区间页岩油的重整2014-2016年，拯救页岩油的是曾经的高油价与华尔街不计成本的信任。2011-2013年油价躺在110美元/桶的舒服区间，美沙俄都很惬意，沙特也并没有意识到美国页岩油崛起会对其构成威胁，沙特能源大臣纳伊米引用2011年欧佩克《世界石油展望》的话说，“页岩油不过是原油供应的边际附加来源”。2014年即便油价暴跌，全年均价也达到99.45美元/桶，在2015-2016年底OPEC+一直没有达成新的减产协议，价格战继续的情况下，油价全年均价依然在53.60美元/桶和45.13美元/桶的区间，能够维持页岩油公司的盈利平衡。然而当前情况发生了变化，这一轮油价暴跌的前三年，页岩油公司并没有准备好足够的安全垫。2017-2019年，原油平均价格在54.74美元/桶、71.69美元/桶、64.16美元/桶，虽然企业能够盈利，但利润空间早已不是2011-2013年的水平，产量的持续上升，很大程度由债务推动。银行还会再继续信任页岩油公司持续输血吗？主要取决于抵押资产的质量和现金流。页岩油公司有强大的快速生产能力，而且美国市场是反垄断的，这就意味着油价只要超过成本上涨，追求盈利的公司就会持续加大产出，OPEC+也不会任由美国侵蚀市场份额，而使得油价较难维持高位。1960年建立的OPEC经历了60年风雨，随着美国页岩油搅局正在逐渐失去影响力。天下大势分久必合合久必分，页岩油出来后，越来越难以维持一个各方满意的价格，大家指望沙特，就像2014年一样，而沙特也不堪重负正在逐渐失去市场份额，所以未来更多趋势会向市场化方向发展，油价很可能会长期进入一个低价区间。| 还记得2018年底讨论卡塔尔退出OPEC的影响吗？这次油价暴跌并非周期问题，更多是结构问题。这轮油价暴跌，需要美国页岩油经历重组后让出一部分市场份额，而让出的方式就是通过价格战争——使得美国页岩油不能回到较高油价而获得足够的抵押资金。就像俄罗斯说的，俄罗斯对45美元/桶的油价感到舒适，其背后主要剑指美国页岩油——页岩油成本在45美元/桶左右，如果这样的价格区间，美国页岩油是很难获得持续的资金支持的，产量下降是必然的。页岩油生产商会经历大鱼吃小鱼的整合，供给侧产能出清才是油价回归的必然之路。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}