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AndyLuh
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IP属地:广东
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AndyLuh
2021-04-17
总觉得美股会有一次暴跌的,而且时间会越来越近,说不出来什么原因,个人第六感觉,不知道有没有人有同感?希望大家多多留言说说
AndyLuh
2021-06-23
很好的,不过还是要注意一点风险
AndyLuh
2021-04-01
很好啊,交易系统很好用的,速度超快
AndyLuh
2022-06-03
好
@经济观察报:重生随笔|说大我
AndyLuh
2021-08-09
還要繼續跌下去嗎?
AndyLuh
2021-07-03
看好他的未來,不知道有人同意嗎?
AndyLuh
2021-06-24
会不会有人看到这个,即将开始反转吗?
AndyLuh
2021-06-11
美股何去何从?
以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
AndyLuh
2021-06-08
美股果然又开始下跌,盘面走势图来看你们有没有觉得什么需要注意的,,明天会不会反弹呢
AndyLuh
2021-06-06
这周又是上下震荡行情,下周会不会继续呢?还是另一种状态,好迷惘,各种指标指向经济前景越来越不明朗,有大师会指点一下迷津吗?
AndyLuh
2021-05-31
美股又假期,基建计划将通过,美版4万万亿真的越来越近了,怎么办,,,有高手支招吗?
AndyLuh
2021-05-24
佩服老段
抱歉,原内容已删除
AndyLuh
2021-04-19
保持半仓就好
@桃李春风益点财:抄底还是割肉?必须先学习择时与仓位管理
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117334987,"gmtCreate":1623116513149,"gmtModify":1623116513149,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股果然又开始下跌,盘面走势图来看你们有没有觉得什么需要注意的,,明天会不会反弹呢","listText":"美股果然又开始下跌,盘面走势图来看你们有没有觉得什么需要注意的,,明天会不会反弹呢","text":"美股果然又开始下跌,盘面走势图来看你们有没有觉得什么需要注意的,,明天会不会反弹呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117334987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115967384,"gmtCreate":1622946913648,"gmtModify":1622946913648,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这周又是上下震荡行情,下周会不会继续呢?还是另一种状态,好迷惘,各种指标指向经济前景越来越不明朗,有大师会指点一下迷津吗?","listText":"这周又是上下震荡行情,下周会不会继续呢?还是另一种状态,好迷惘,各种指标指向经济前景越来越不明朗,有大师会指点一下迷津吗?","text":"这周又是上下震荡行情,下周会不会继续呢?还是另一种状态,好迷惘,各种指标指向经济前景越来越不明朗,有大师会指点一下迷津吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115967384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110169760,"gmtCreate":1622431307050,"gmtModify":1622431307050,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股又假期,基建计划将通过,美版4万万亿真的越来越近了,怎么办,,,有高手支招吗?","listText":"美股又假期,基建计划将通过,美版4万万亿真的越来越近了,怎么办,,,有高手支招吗?","text":"美股又假期,基建计划将通过,美版4万万亿真的越来越近了,怎么办,,,有高手支招吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110169760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131908870,"gmtCreate":1621819488890,"gmtModify":1621819488890,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"佩服老段","listText":"佩服老段","text":"佩服老段","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131908870","repostId":"1105006567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373856510,"gmtCreate":1618840156030,"gmtModify":1618840156030,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"保持半仓就好","listText":"保持半仓就好","text":"保持半仓就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373856510","repostId":"373196446","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":373196446,"gmtCreate":1618828903585,"gmtModify":1619083125185,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","authorIdStr":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"抄底还是割肉?必须先学习择时与仓位管理","htmlText":"本文聚焦1、学会解读择时的参考因素2、仓位管理的两种方法3、如何平衡仓位与估值的关系4、规避!规避!--几个容易犯的交易错误《从零开始,建立自己的投资体系》前七节头教课欢迎回顾:3月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/328577469\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】认识自己,是建立投资体系的第一步》</a>3月19日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/350076936\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】资产配置决定90%的投资收益》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348760339\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】收益率与风险的关系》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348769574\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】散户如何面对亏损?》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342207449\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资策略“快与慢”》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342293345\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资风格测试:总结出你的专属投资决策模型》</a>4月13日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/345845660\" target=\"_blank\">《选股时记住这10个指标,帮你精准排雷!》</a>简单点讲,股票投资其实只有两个问题,一个是买什么?也就是我们上一节讲的选股。第二个问题就是什么时候买,什","listText":"本文聚焦1、学会解读择时的参考因素2、仓位管理的两种方法3、如何平衡仓位与估值的关系4、规避!规避!--几个容易犯的交易错误《从零开始,建立自己的投资体系》前七节头教课欢迎回顾:3月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/328577469\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】认识自己,是建立投资体系的第一步》</a>3月19日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/350076936\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】资产配置决定90%的投资收益》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348760339\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】收益率与风险的关系》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348769574\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】散户如何面对亏损?》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342207449\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资策略“快与慢”》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342293345\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资风格测试:总结出你的专属投资决策模型》</a>4月13日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/345845660\" target=\"_blank\">《选股时记住这10个指标,帮你精准排雷!》</a>简单点讲,股票投资其实只有两个问题,一个是买什么?也就是我们上一节讲的选股。第二个问题就是什么时候买,什","text":"本文聚焦1、学会解读择时的参考因素2、仓位管理的两种方法3、如何平衡仓位与估值的关系4、规避!规避!--几个容易犯的交易错误《从零开始,建立自己的投资体系》前七节头教课欢迎回顾:3月12日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】认识自己,是建立投资体系的第一步》3月19日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】资产配置决定90%的投资收益》4月9日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】收益率与风险的关系》4月9日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】散户如何面对亏损?》4月12日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资策略“快与慢”》4月12日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资风格测试:总结出你的专属投资决策模型》4月13日发文:《选股时记住这10个指标,帮你精准排雷!》简单点讲,股票投资其实只有两个问题,一个是买什么?也就是我们上一节讲的选股。第二个问题就是什么时候买,什","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/637649f30d6c624edb8ea366a35d1c8b","width":"410","height":"273"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba5a10b3a99ecda690ef2cdad6575ce","width":"602","height":"385"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ec5cdd952fdeb0740ae3b4598076683","width":"1020","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373196446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370506860,"gmtCreate":1618593784850,"gmtModify":1618622678679,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"总觉得美股会有一次暴跌的,而且时间会越来越近,说不出来什么原因,个人第六感觉,不知道有没有人有同感?希望大家多多留言说说","listText":"总觉得美股会有一次暴跌的,而且时间会越来越近,说不出来什么原因,个人第六感觉,不知道有没有人有同感?希望大家多多留言说说","text":"总觉得美股会有一次暴跌的,而且时间会越来越近,说不出来什么原因,个人第六感觉,不知道有没有人有同感?希望大家多多留言说说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370506860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357053165,"gmtCreate":1617212549257,"gmtModify":1617212549257,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很好啊,交易系统很好用的,速度超快","listText":"很好啊,交易系统很好用的,速度超快","text":"很好啊,交易系统很好用的,速度超快","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357053165","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":370506860,"gmtCreate":1618593784850,"gmtModify":1618622678679,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"总觉得美股会有一次暴跌的,而且时间会越来越近,说不出来什么原因,个人第六感觉,不知道有没有人有同感?希望大家多多留言说说","listText":"总觉得美股会有一次暴跌的,而且时间会越来越近,说不出来什么原因,个人第六感觉,不知道有没有人有同感?希望大家多多留言说说","text":"总觉得美股会有一次暴跌的,而且时间会越来越近,说不出来什么原因,个人第六感觉,不知道有没有人有同感?希望大家多多留言说说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370506860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123615156,"gmtCreate":1624420517175,"gmtModify":1624420517175,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很好的,不过还是要注意一点风险","listText":"很好的,不过还是要注意一点风险","text":"很好的,不过还是要注意一点风险","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2849974fd82720ddacbf375df2307df9","width":"1125","height":"3166"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123615156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357053165,"gmtCreate":1617212549257,"gmtModify":1617212549257,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很好啊,交易系统很好用的,速度超快","listText":"很好啊,交易系统很好用的,速度超快","text":"很好啊,交易系统很好用的,速度超快","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357053165","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2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花拥新城 吕伟刚 摄) 吴重生/文 今天是端午节。大家都知道这是一个为纪念屈原而设立的节日。屈原是我国古代伟大的爱国主义诗人。为什么纪念屈原?因为屈原是一个心有“大我”的人。 大我,佛教中是指远离“我执”、“我见”而达到自由自在境界的“我”,是“我”的最高境界。在当代语境中,“大我”指时时以国家利益为先、以大局为重要思想和行为。 在屈原心中,个人荣辱始终是小事,而国家利益、民族大义始终是大事。促使他舍身成仁的根本动力,就在于“大我”精神的激励。我之为我,并非属于我个人。一个人不可能脱离自己的家乡和祖国而存在。只有把“小我”融入“大我”当中,才能创造属于自己的人生价值。 每一位成功人士的奋斗史,无不是奉献“小我”、成就“大我”的英雄史。具体到每一个生命个体的“小我”人人可见,而上升到精神和认知层面“大我”却需要用心体悟。 “大我”是一种境界。把个人的前途命运与祖国的前途命运紧紧地联系在一起,理想如灯塔,指引着人生之舟的航程;信仰如火炬,照耀并且温暖人生的旅途。当个人利益与集体利益甚至于国家利益发生冲突时,自觉以集体利益和国家利益为重。“大我”讲究无私奉献,在奉献过程中体会“大幸福”和“大快乐”。 “大我”是一种气度。心中有“大我”的人,眼中无私事。看到损害集体和国家利益的事,绝不会袖手旁观;看到对国家和集体有利的事,必定会亲力亲为。他们从不计较个人得失,习惯于算是否有利于促进社会文明和进步的“大账”。 静坐常思己过,闲谈莫论人非,是“小我”;静以修身,俭以养德,是“小我”。一个人在做好“小我”的前提下,方能成就“大我”。“大我”意识就是要时时警醒自己,胸怀天下,兼济苍生,事事以家国为念,时时为他人着想。 “四海之内,皆兄弟也”,《论语》中的这句话是中华传统文化中“仁爱”思想的集中体现,比西方所倡导的“博爱”更胜一筹。“小我”是个体,放入“","listText":"( 花拥新城 吕伟刚 摄) 吴重生/文 今天是端午节。大家都知道这是一个为纪念屈原而设立的节日。屈原是我国古代伟大的爱国主义诗人。为什么纪念屈原?因为屈原是一个心有“大我”的人。 大我,佛教中是指远离“我执”、“我见”而达到自由自在境界的“我”,是“我”的最高境界。在当代语境中,“大我”指时时以国家利益为先、以大局为重要思想和行为。 在屈原心中,个人荣辱始终是小事,而国家利益、民族大义始终是大事。促使他舍身成仁的根本动力,就在于“大我”精神的激励。我之为我,并非属于我个人。一个人不可能脱离自己的家乡和祖国而存在。只有把“小我”融入“大我”当中,才能创造属于自己的人生价值。 每一位成功人士的奋斗史,无不是奉献“小我”、成就“大我”的英雄史。具体到每一个生命个体的“小我”人人可见,而上升到精神和认知层面“大我”却需要用心体悟。 “大我”是一种境界。把个人的前途命运与祖国的前途命运紧紧地联系在一起,理想如灯塔,指引着人生之舟的航程;信仰如火炬,照耀并且温暖人生的旅途。当个人利益与集体利益甚至于国家利益发生冲突时,自觉以集体利益和国家利益为重。“大我”讲究无私奉献,在奉献过程中体会“大幸福”和“大快乐”。 “大我”是一种气度。心中有“大我”的人,眼中无私事。看到损害集体和国家利益的事,绝不会袖手旁观;看到对国家和集体有利的事,必定会亲力亲为。他们从不计较个人得失,习惯于算是否有利于促进社会文明和进步的“大账”。 静坐常思己过,闲谈莫论人非,是“小我”;静以修身,俭以养德,是“小我”。一个人在做好“小我”的前提下,方能成就“大我”。“大我”意识就是要时时警醒自己,胸怀天下,兼济苍生,事事以家国为念,时时为他人着想。 “四海之内,皆兄弟也”,《论语》中的这句话是中华传统文化中“仁爱”思想的集中体现,比西方所倡导的“博爱”更胜一筹。“小我”是个体,放入“","text":"( 花拥新城 吕伟刚 摄) 吴重生/文 今天是端午节。大家都知道这是一个为纪念屈原而设立的节日。屈原是我国古代伟大的爱国主义诗人。为什么纪念屈原?因为屈原是一个心有“大我”的人。 大我,佛教中是指远离“我执”、“我见”而达到自由自在境界的“我”,是“我”的最高境界。在当代语境中,“大我”指时时以国家利益为先、以大局为重要思想和行为。 在屈原心中,个人荣辱始终是小事,而国家利益、民族大义始终是大事。促使他舍身成仁的根本动力,就在于“大我”精神的激励。我之为我,并非属于我个人。一个人不可能脱离自己的家乡和祖国而存在。只有把“小我”融入“大我”当中,才能创造属于自己的人生价值。 每一位成功人士的奋斗史,无不是奉献“小我”、成就“大我”的英雄史。具体到每一个生命个体的“小我”人人可见,而上升到精神和认知层面“大我”却需要用心体悟。 “大我”是一种境界。把个人的前途命运与祖国的前途命运紧紧地联系在一起,理想如灯塔,指引着人生之舟的航程;信仰如火炬,照耀并且温暖人生的旅途。当个人利益与集体利益甚至于国家利益发生冲突时,自觉以集体利益和国家利益为重。“大我”讲究无私奉献,在奉献过程中体会“大幸福”和“大快乐”。 “大我”是一种气度。心中有“大我”的人,眼中无私事。看到损害集体和国家利益的事,绝不会袖手旁观;看到对国家和集体有利的事,必定会亲力亲为。他们从不计较个人得失,习惯于算是否有利于促进社会文明和进步的“大账”。 静坐常思己过,闲谈莫论人非,是“小我”;静以修身,俭以养德,是“小我”。一个人在做好“小我”的前提下,方能成就“大我”。“大我”意识就是要时时警醒自己,胸怀天下,兼济苍生,事事以家国为念,时时为他人着想。 “四海之内,皆兄弟也”,《论语》中的这句话是中华传统文化中“仁爱”思想的集中体现,比西方所倡导的“博爱”更胜一筹。“小我”是个体,放入“","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617686964","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":898612021,"gmtCreate":1628492257563,"gmtModify":1628492257563,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"還要繼續跌下去嗎?","listText":"還要繼續跌下去嗎?","text":"還要繼續跌下去嗎?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cd0bb6dbcc221a202c4433f2207c15","width":"1125","height":"3029"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898612021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":152680913,"gmtCreate":1625287474632,"gmtModify":1625287474632,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好他的未來,不知道有人同意嗎?","listText":"看好他的未來,不知道有人同意嗎?","text":"看好他的未來,不知道有人同意嗎?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cf5914286968311ee9df687b7a710c","width":"1125","height":"3085"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152680913","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128072018,"gmtCreate":1624496789134,"gmtModify":1624496789134,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"会不会有人看到这个,即将开始反转吗?","listText":"会不会有人看到这个,即将开始反转吗?","text":"会不会有人看到这个,即将开始反转吗?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db7e606570d43633b7b6cc53208aec8b","width":"1125","height":"3329"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128072018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":181208403,"gmtCreate":1623394283202,"gmtModify":1623394283202,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股何去何从?","listText":"美股何去何从?","text":"美股何去何从?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181208403","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11:</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07:</b>走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09:</b>油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是<b>从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示:</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴,美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日,美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%,创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来,美国通胀率加速上升,美联储6月议息会议在即,市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升,以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响:\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09:经济陷入衰退,但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在,通胀持续上升,美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11:粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下,美国经济陷入滞胀,供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败,货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后,未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07:走出滞胀后,美国经济经历了高速增长,但1987年开始经济增速放缓,并出现工资和价格上涨压力,美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09:油价飙升推升通胀,金融危机爆发,美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市,通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似,均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平),但是从CPI指数角度,2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎,我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工,芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足,二手车需求剧增,价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据,2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外,5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大,交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%,增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%),尽管相对于其它分项,房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%),但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4),我们预计受到供给短缺的影响,未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度,密西根预期通胀率数据显示,2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5),但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度,如我们此前报告所述,美联储注重通胀预期的监测,关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE),CIE为季度数据,预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中,CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2):通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响,前者较为滞后,后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是,通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性,关于美债的研究框架,请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示:美联储过快收紧货币政策,地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E,参与《老虎大搜查》活动,下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币,如集齐7张图片并留言,还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。(详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117334987,"gmtCreate":1623116513149,"gmtModify":1623116513149,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股果然又开始下跌,盘面走势图来看你们有没有觉得什么需要注意的,,明天会不会反弹呢","listText":"美股果然又开始下跌,盘面走势图来看你们有没有觉得什么需要注意的,,明天会不会反弹呢","text":"美股果然又开始下跌,盘面走势图来看你们有没有觉得什么需要注意的,,明天会不会反弹呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117334987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115967384,"gmtCreate":1622946913648,"gmtModify":1622946913648,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这周又是上下震荡行情,下周会不会继续呢?还是另一种状态,好迷惘,各种指标指向经济前景越来越不明朗,有大师会指点一下迷津吗?","listText":"这周又是上下震荡行情,下周会不会继续呢?还是另一种状态,好迷惘,各种指标指向经济前景越来越不明朗,有大师会指点一下迷津吗?","text":"这周又是上下震荡行情,下周会不会继续呢?还是另一种状态,好迷惘,各种指标指向经济前景越来越不明朗,有大师会指点一下迷津吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115967384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110169760,"gmtCreate":1622431307050,"gmtModify":1622431307050,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股又假期,基建计划将通过,美版4万万亿真的越来越近了,怎么办,,,有高手支招吗?","listText":"美股又假期,基建计划将通过,美版4万万亿真的越来越近了,怎么办,,,有高手支招吗?","text":"美股又假期,基建计划将通过,美版4万万亿真的越来越近了,怎么办,,,有高手支招吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110169760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131908870,"gmtCreate":1621819488890,"gmtModify":1621819488890,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"佩服老段","listText":"佩服老段","text":"佩服老段","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131908870","repostId":"1105006567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373856510,"gmtCreate":1618840156030,"gmtModify":1618840156030,"author":{"id":"3548195243926444","authorId":"3548195243926444","authorIdStr":"3548195243926444","name":"AndyLuh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c3f69f2f7d57afb5b30be439bed86b7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"保持半仓就好","listText":"保持半仓就好","text":"保持半仓就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373856510","repostId":"373196446","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":373196446,"gmtCreate":1618828903585,"gmtModify":1619083125185,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","authorIdStr":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"抄底还是割肉?必须先学习择时与仓位管理","htmlText":"本文聚焦1、学会解读择时的参考因素2、仓位管理的两种方法3、如何平衡仓位与估值的关系4、规避!规避!--几个容易犯的交易错误《从零开始,建立自己的投资体系》前七节头教课欢迎回顾:3月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/328577469\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】认识自己,是建立投资体系的第一步》</a>3月19日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/350076936\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】资产配置决定90%的投资收益》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348760339\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】收益率与风险的关系》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348769574\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】散户如何面对亏损?》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342207449\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资策略“快与慢”》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342293345\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资风格测试:总结出你的专属投资决策模型》</a>4月13日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/345845660\" target=\"_blank\">《选股时记住这10个指标,帮你精准排雷!》</a>简单点讲,股票投资其实只有两个问题,一个是买什么?也就是我们上一节讲的选股。第二个问题就是什么时候买,什","listText":"本文聚焦1、学会解读择时的参考因素2、仓位管理的两种方法3、如何平衡仓位与估值的关系4、规避!规避!--几个容易犯的交易错误《从零开始,建立自己的投资体系》前七节头教课欢迎回顾:3月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/328577469\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】认识自己,是建立投资体系的第一步》</a>3月19日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/350076936\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】资产配置决定90%的投资收益》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348760339\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】收益率与风险的关系》</a>4月9日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348769574\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】散户如何面对亏损?》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342207449\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资策略“快与慢”》</a>4月12日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/342293345\" target=\"_blank\">《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资风格测试:总结出你的专属投资决策模型》</a>4月13日发文:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/345845660\" target=\"_blank\">《选股时记住这10个指标,帮你精准排雷!》</a>简单点讲,股票投资其实只有两个问题,一个是买什么?也就是我们上一节讲的选股。第二个问题就是什么时候买,什","text":"本文聚焦1、学会解读择时的参考因素2、仓位管理的两种方法3、如何平衡仓位与估值的关系4、规避!规避!--几个容易犯的交易错误《从零开始,建立自己的投资体系》前七节头教课欢迎回顾:3月12日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】认识自己,是建立投资体系的第一步》3月19日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】资产配置决定90%的投资收益》4月9日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】收益率与风险的关系》4月9日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】散户如何面对亏损?》4月12日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资策略“快与慢”》4月12日发文:《【贝瑞投资体系专栏】投资风格测试:总结出你的专属投资决策模型》4月13日发文:《选股时记住这10个指标,帮你精准排雷!》简单点讲,股票投资其实只有两个问题,一个是买什么?也就是我们上一节讲的选股。第二个问题就是什么时候买,什","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/637649f30d6c624edb8ea366a35d1c8b","width":"410","height":"273"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba5a10b3a99ecda690ef2cdad6575ce","width":"602","height":"385"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ec5cdd952fdeb0740ae3b4598076683","width":"1020","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373196446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}