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叶莱
2020-08-18
$跟谁学(GSX)$
止损。转多头。ಥ_ಥ
叶莱
2020-08-14
$跟谁学(GSX)$
或许做空的时机到了。
叶莱
2020-08-10
$华新水泥(600801)$
上个星期27块买的。哇哇哇，天天冲高回落，很影响心情的好不好。😔
叶莱
2020-04-15
我不管，我要跑。
霍华德·马克斯最新备忘录：经济将渐进式复苏
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19:12","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"霍华德·马克斯最新备忘录：经济将渐进式复苏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187472743","media":"远川投资评论","summary":"作者：陈若焱\n4月14日，橡树资本霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）更新了他的投资备忘录，题目为“Knowledge of the Future”（对未来的认知）。\n\nHoward Marks","content":"<p><b><span>作者：陈若焱</span></b></p>\n<p><span>4月14日，橡树资本霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）更新了他的投资备忘录，题目为“Knowledge of the Future”（对未来的认知）。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e2afb24a67c9212979a3a744686dde\"></p>\n<p><b><span>Howard Marks</span></b></p>\n<p><span>这次备忘录重点阐述了马克斯对美国经济和美联储刺激政策的看法。他表示，目前最大的不确定性之一是经济前景。而最</span><span><b>棘手的问题是要在疫情防控和重启经济之间做出取舍。他认为，经济的复苏很可能是渐进的。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>对于美联储、财政部的一些刺激政策，</span><span><b>马克斯的看法依然偏谨慎，但相比之前有所缓和。</b></span><span>最新备忘录核心观点如下：</span></p>\n<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p><b>美国正遭受着什么？</b></p>\n<p><span>马克斯在备忘录中列举了美国目前的状况：</span></p>\n<p><span><b>1）自102年前西班牙流感以来最严重的流行病正在爆发；</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>2）自80年前大萧条以来最大的经济收缩；</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>3）欧佩克时代（甚至可能有史以来）的最大油价下跌；</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>4）有史以来最大的央行、政府干预。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>他表示，如果遇到以前从未见过的事情，根本无法推断结果会如何。所以，上述事情未来如何发展，显然是难以预料的。我们根本不可能知道，它们在未来一段时间内将如何运作，如何相互影响以及对其他事物的影响。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过，我们必须有充分的理由相信过去可以推论未来，至少以史为鉴好于完全忽略它们。所以，我们过去研究典型周期，例外管理原则以及诸如大多数涨势中的上下波动模式等细节。</span></p>\n<p><span>马克斯认为，我们可能无法知道未来，但这并不能阻止我们得出关于未来的结论并坚定地坚持下去。</span></p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p><b>经济将渐进式复苏</b></p>\n<p><span>马克斯表示，</span><span><b>如今面临的最大不确定性之一是经济前景。</b></span><span>乐观主义者预计会出现V形复苏，这是否会实现，取决于美国何时复工，而这很大程度上取决于疫情发展的趋势。</span></p>\n<p><span>目前最棘手的问题之一，</span><span><b>仍然是在如何减少疫情死亡人数和经济复苏之间做出取舍。</b></span><span>换句话说，人们待在家里的时间越长，可以越早控制疾病，但与此同时对经济的损害也越大，经济复苏就越困难。</span></p>\n<p><span>如何选择？没有两全其美的办法。马克斯借用了著名投资者爱德华·兰伯特（Edward Lampert）在《纽约日报》上关于汽车驾驶的比喻，来说明自己的看法。</span></p>\n<p><span>德华·兰伯特表示，驾驶汽车是有风险的。2018年驾车死亡人数达3.7万人，但是，我们并没有限制汽车使用，也没有实施限速等措施。原因是汽车的好处超过了成本。对比目前的情况，美国需要迅速复工，而企业和个人可以动态地适应，在利益和风险之间进行权衡。</span></p>\n<p><span>据此，马克斯认为</span><span><b>，经济的复苏可能是渐进式的，在疫苗完善或获得群体免疫之前，美国经济可能会经历进退交替时期。</b></span></p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储潜在工具包范围巨大</b></p>\n<p><span>对于美联储一些列救市举措，马克斯的观点依然偏谨慎。</span></p>\n<p><span>他表示，一个月前，自己还担心联储库的规模有限，因为当时利率仅为1.5%，而过去大多数时候降息计划都达到了500个基点。如今，</span><span><b>我们看到了美联储潜在工具包的巨大范围。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>在马克斯看来，</span><span><b>由于美联储对疫情冲击做出迅速而明显的反应，市场悲观预期似乎得到快速扭转。</b></span><span>现在很少听到有关全球经济萧条的话题，很多讨论围绕2021年或者2022年GDP将超过2019年。大家不想讨论萧条，而是想知道政府各种行动的适当性和长期影响。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过，马克斯对此也提出了一大堆质疑。例如，无限量QE真的是无限的吗？迄今为止已宣布的刺激、贷款、救助、福利和债券购买总计达数万亿美元，由此产生的联邦赤字和美联储资产负债表的增加意味着什么？经济如何反弹，以什么速度反弹？会不会带来负面影响？……</span></p>\n<p><span>这些问题目前似乎都没有答案。</span></p>\n<p><span>最后，马克斯还特意谈到最近美股的反弹。在疫情导致的死亡人数还在继续上升、失业人数急剧上升、GDP将出现历史性下降的情况下，市场为何还能出现如此强劲的上涨呢？原因大概是</span><span><b>美联储干预措施提振了投资者信心，给了市场向好的预期。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>他引用了一句老话，“</span><span><b>不要与美联储作对</b></span><span>”。显然，对于过去市场反弹中通常会出现的紧缩措施，大家现在并不担心。他表示，市场似乎已经对未来做出了判断。</span></p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n霍华德·马克斯最新备忘录：经济将渐进式复苏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-15 19:12 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ybe1vgurJWCoBDMGyN-ZAQ><strong>远川投资评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：陈若焱\n4月14日，橡树资本霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）更新了他的投资备忘录，题目为“Knowledge of the Future”（对未来的认知）。\n\nHoward Marks\n这次备忘录重点阐述了马克斯对美国经济和美联储刺激政策的看法。他表示，目前最大的不确定性之一是经济前景。而最棘手的问题是要在疫情防控和重启经济之间做出取舍。他认为，经济的复苏很可能是渐进的。\n对于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ybe1vgurJWCoBDMGyN-ZAQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ybe1vgurJWCoBDMGyN-ZAQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187472743","content_text":"作者：陈若焱\n4月14日，橡树资本霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）更新了他的投资备忘录，题目为“Knowledge of the Future”（对未来的认知）。\n\nHoward Marks\n这次备忘录重点阐述了马克斯对美国经济和美联储刺激政策的看法。他表示，目前最大的不确定性之一是经济前景。而最棘手的问题是要在疫情防控和重启经济之间做出取舍。他认为，经济的复苏很可能是渐进的。\n对于美联储、财政部的一些刺激政策，马克斯的看法依然偏谨慎，但相比之前有所缓和。最新备忘录核心观点如下：\n01\n美国正遭受着什么？\n马克斯在备忘录中列举了美国目前的状况：\n1）自102年前西班牙流感以来最严重的流行病正在爆发；\n2）自80年前大萧条以来最大的经济收缩；\n3）欧佩克时代（甚至可能有史以来）的最大油价下跌；\n4）有史以来最大的央行、政府干预。\n他表示，如果遇到以前从未见过的事情，根本无法推断结果会如何。所以，上述事情未来如何发展，显然是难以预料的。我们根本不可能知道，它们在未来一段时间内将如何运作，如何相互影响以及对其他事物的影响。\n不过，我们必须有充分的理由相信过去可以推论未来，至少以史为鉴好于完全忽略它们。所以，我们过去研究典型周期，例外管理原则以及诸如大多数涨势中的上下波动模式等细节。\n马克斯认为，我们可能无法知道未来，但这并不能阻止我们得出关于未来的结论并坚定地坚持下去。\n02\n经济将渐进式复苏\n马克斯表示，如今面临的最大不确定性之一是经济前景。乐观主义者预计会出现V形复苏，这是否会实现，取决于美国何时复工，而这很大程度上取决于疫情发展的趋势。\n目前最棘手的问题之一，仍然是在如何减少疫情死亡人数和经济复苏之间做出取舍。换句话说，人们待在家里的时间越长，可以越早控制疾病，但与此同时对经济的损害也越大，经济复苏就越困难。\n如何选择？没有两全其美的办法。马克斯借用了著名投资者爱德华·兰伯特（Edward Lampert）在《纽约日报》上关于汽车驾驶的比喻，来说明自己的看法。\n德华·兰伯特表示，驾驶汽车是有风险的。2018年驾车死亡人数达3.7万人，但是，我们并没有限制汽车使用，也没有实施限速等措施。原因是汽车的好处超过了成本。对比目前的情况，美国需要迅速复工，而企业和个人可以动态地适应，在利益和风险之间进行权衡。\n据此，马克斯认为，经济的复苏可能是渐进式的，在疫苗完善或获得群体免疫之前，美国经济可能会经历进退交替时期。\n03\n美联储潜在工具包范围巨大\n对于美联储一些列救市举措，马克斯的观点依然偏谨慎。\n他表示，一个月前，自己还担心联储库的规模有限，因为当时利率仅为1.5%，而过去大多数时候降息计划都达到了500个基点。如今，我们看到了美联储潜在工具包的巨大范围。\n在马克斯看来，由于美联储对疫情冲击做出迅速而明显的反应，市场悲观预期似乎得到快速扭转。现在很少听到有关全球经济萧条的话题，很多讨论围绕2021年或者2022年GDP将超过2019年。大家不想讨论萧条，而是想知道政府各种行动的适当性和长期影响。\n不过，马克斯对此也提出了一大堆质疑。例如，无限量QE真的是无限的吗？迄今为止已宣布的刺激、贷款、救助、福利和债券购买总计达数万亿美元，由此产生的联邦赤字和美联储资产负债表的增加意味着什么？经济如何反弹，以什么速度反弹？会不会带来负面影响？……\n这些问题目前似乎都没有答案。\n最后，马克斯还特意谈到最近美股的反弹。在疫情导致的死亡人数还在继续上升、失业人数急剧上升、GDP将出现历史性下降的情况下，市场为何还能出现如此强劲的上涨呢？原因大概是美联储干预措施提振了投资者信心，给了市场向好的预期。\n他引用了一句老话，“不要与美联储作对”。显然，对于过去市场反弹中通常会出现的紧缩措施，大家现在并不担心。他表示，市场似乎已经对未来做出了判断。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":970679134,"gmtCreate":1597766109528,"gmtModify":1704216709791,"author":{"id":"3548115873981185","authorId":"3548115873981185","name":"叶莱","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33303d0913ff33917d1a3663f45d6a9e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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