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玛卡巴卡bbb
2022-08-26
$拼多多(PDD)$
前天认真研究了一下pdd出海的政策,打算自己也组局开个店,顺手买了一些股票
玛卡巴卡bbb
2021-11-30
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
what happened?
玛卡巴卡bbb
2022-07-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
国产新品类的第一个周期里,用户往往没有体验过这个品类,关注点更多在于外观而非真正的产品力(智能手机在10到15年,用户在意的是屏幕大不大,音乐播放好不好,15年后华为才开始崛起),而底层创新drive的成长是穿越阶段的(苹果)。谁是电动汽车行业的苹果?答案也许并不难解,就看面对市场波动的耐心和决心了。
玛卡巴卡bbb
2022-03-09
。
@言财美股研究社:以史为鉴:油价暴涨,超级滞胀期来临,大类资产怎么配?
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-2012年:回顾大类资产的历史走势,2007至2012年所经历的四年是由经济周期本身驱动的大类资产轮动历程。我们选取选取上证综指、中证转债指数、10年期国债到期收益率、3年期中票到期收益率(AA+)以及信用利","text":"大类资产轮动是否存在规律?今年以来,多件风险事件叠加监管政策因素持续冲击多个市场,各类资产走势分化。尤其是近期在俄乌冲突升级以后,石油价格以60年最快的速度暴涨,带动大宗商品集体暴动,铜、铝、镍等等近期都走出了摧枯拉朽的走势,暴涨的大宗商品给全球经济带来巨大的压力,经济衰退风险骤然提升,一边是高企的通胀,一边是下行的经济,这种组合,怎么配置?从大类资产轮动的角度出发,站在当下时点,市场所面临的是怎样的环境?回顾历史,以美林时钟以及杠杆周期的核心逻辑为出发点,试图回答这个问题。他山之石,可以攻玉,回顾历史:是否存在轮动规律?从美林时钟出发,回顾近十年来,大类资产的表现,其核心逻辑在于,在经济周期的不同阶段均有表现好于大市的资产出现,因此基于经济周期演变对股票、可转债、利率债以及信用债、房地产、大宗商品这六大类资产的价格走势进行分析。使用工业增加值作为经济增长的代指标,将CPI作为衡量通胀的指标,根据不同组合将经济周期分为:复苏期(经济上行、通胀下行)、过热期(经济上行、通胀上行)、滞涨期(经济下行、通胀上行)、衰退期(经济下行、通胀下行)。Ⅰ衰退:债券>现金>股票>大宗商品Ⅱ复苏:大宗商品>股票>债券>现金Ⅲ过热:股票>大宗商品>现金/债券Ⅳ滞胀:现金>大宗商品/债券>股票当下经济进入了典型的滞涨阶段,大宗商品暴涨,在本阶段,股票成为表现最差的资产,现金与大宗商品则成为表现更好的资产。本文以2007-2015年这一段时间来完整展现,大经济周期之下,各类资产的表现,来分析各类阶段大类资产配置的要点所在。2007 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