俊bad的个人主页 - 老虎社区

俊bad

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：广东

11关注

3粉丝

4主题

0勋章

12-13

中国国航和华润啤酒

12-04

明天要被杀了...港股，回调....

12-02

有可能，时间作证....

11-14

$名创优品(MNSO)$ 没救

07-24

没戏

欧洲杯没能带动啤酒股大涨，巴黎奥运会有戏吗？| 行业风向标

03-27

$商汤-W(00020)$ 没救了

2021-08-16

内卷

小米高管微博疑似嘲讽荣耀新机发布后秒删

2021-07-30

$小米集团-W(01810)$全球销量第二就这样....

2021-07-27

$小米集团-W(01810)$索罗斯又来做空港股了

2021-07-27

$小米集团-W(01810)$惨

2021-07-23

$小米集团-W(01810)$直接破26好了

2021-07-23

$小米集团-W(01810)$今天继续....

2021-07-22

$小米集团-W(01810)$今天继续？

2021-07-21

$小米集团-W(01810)$今天继续....

2021-07-20

$小米集团-W(01810)$熟悉的小米...

2021-07-15

$小米集团-W(01810)$跳水？

2021-07-14

$小米集团-W(01810)$熟悉的小米

2021-07-13

$小米集团-W(01810)$又一次跑输科技股，熟悉的小米

2021-07-12

$小米集团-W(01810)$小米永远是你大爷，专治各种不服...

2021-07-12

$小米集团-W(01810)$熟悉的小米

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href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240724A09CQM00><strong>钛媒体APP</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全文2969字，阅读约需9分钟，帮我划重点划重点01尽管欧洲杯未能带动啤酒销量大涨，但市场期待巴黎奥运会为啤酒行业带来提振。02由于持续的暴雨天气和啤酒企业主动控库存，线下啤酒消费仍较为疲软。03业内人士认为，下半年啤酒企业销量会有所改善，但盈利主要依赖成本下行。04另一方面，啤酒企业正加大产品创新升级力度，以应对消费者偏好的变化。05今年啤酒成本下行红利明显，有效缓解了啤酒企业原材料成本压力，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240724A09CQM00\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_ls/OgvhKiujg6b1XnddIVK-J7jr0JCKcjgZPJkTbvs53hUNQAA_294195/0","relate_stocks":{"80291":"华润啤酒-R","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","BK1180":"啤酒酿造商","BK1510":"啤酒","IE00B29SXG58.USD":"FSSA CHINA FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","00291":"华润啤酒","01876":"百威亚太","SG9999006514.SGD":"United Asia Consumer Fund SGD","BK1589":"北水核心资产","SG9999001903.USD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity USD","IE00BPRC5H50.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240724A09CQM00","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2453783009","content_text":"全文2969字，阅读约需9分钟，帮我划重点划重点01尽管欧洲杯未能带动啤酒销量大涨，但市场期待巴黎奥运会为啤酒行业带来提振。02由于持续的暴雨天气和啤酒企业主动控库存，线下啤酒消费仍较为疲软。03业内人士认为，下半年啤酒企业销量会有所改善，但盈利主要依赖成本下行。04另一方面，啤酒企业正加大产品创新升级力度，以应对消费者偏好的变化。05今年啤酒成本下行红利明显，有效缓解了啤酒企业原材料成本压力，提升企业盈利空间。以上内容由腾讯混元大模型生成，仅供参考（图片系AI生成）欧洲杯和巴黎奥运会集中在今年夏季，按以往惯例，啤酒股理应迎来一波大涨行情。但现实是，为期一个月的欧洲杯不仅没能带动啤酒销量大涨，也没能让A股啤酒板块“躁动”起来。虽然在赛事收尾之际几只啤酒股有过一波短暂上扬，但之后又集体重回跌势，其中华润啤酒（00291.HK）在7月24日一度跌超6%，青岛啤酒（600600.SH）跌近3%。不过，由于巴黎奥运会开幕在即，市场正隐隐期待着啤酒重燃激情，至少业内十分看好“奥运风”的威力，认为“啤酒股的夏季攻势”即将打响。但是否能再现上一届奥运会期间集体大涨的场景，仍有待观察。钛媒体APP注意到，除了持续的暴雨天气影响外，目前啤酒线下消费仍较为疲软。但也有分析认为，下半年啤酒企业销量会有所改善，但盈利主要依赖成本下行。欧洲杯催化作用不及预期整体来看，今年上半年，啤酒表现并不算亮眼。产量上，国家统计局数据显示，今年1、2月中国规模以上企业啤酒产量566.6万千升，同比增长12.1%；3-6月，啤酒产量则连续下滑，下降幅度分别为6.5%、9.1%、4.5%、1.7%。整个上半年，中国规模以上啤酒企业累计产量1908.8万千升，同比增长仅0.1%。二级市场上，啤酒板块震荡明显。进入6月，市场对欧洲杯赛事的催化作用寄予厚望，但最终被泼冷水。钛媒体APP注意到，欧洲杯赛事期间，啤酒股价普遍下跌。整个6月至欧洲杯结束，百威亚太（01876.HK）、华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒（600132.SH）等个股累计跌幅均超过10%。直到赛事收尾时，上述几只啤酒股才陆续有所上涨。从销量来看，券商预测上半年多家啤酒企业销量下滑，下滑幅度在中低个位数到10%不等，主要原因仍是需求偏弱以及去年同期高基数等。比如Gangtise投研啤酒分析师称，2024年5月份中国国内啤酒销量低于预期，其中青啤销量同比下滑6%，华润啤酒销量下滑4%，重啤销量略有下滑，喜力销量同比增长超20%，雪花、纯生有一些压力，预计6月份国内啤酒销量还会低于预期。进入夏季销售旺季后，尽管欧洲杯带动了销量提升，但远不及预期。多位啤酒业内人士告诉钛媒体APP，“欧洲杯未能带动啤酒线下销量大涨。”据了解，为配合欧洲杯，不少商家延长营业时间、推出欧洲杯专属套餐等等，比如不少酒吧装饰上欧洲杯元素，同时又提供欧洲杯观赛服务来提升业绩，但最终效果却不及预期。成都一啤酒馆工作人员向钛媒体APP表示，“球赛的确提高了店里的人流量和营业额，但远没达到我们的预期，而且每天营业额的浮动还比较大，氛围大不如前了。”究其原因，主要是线下餐饮端压力较大，全国多地持续的暴雨天气，且各家啤酒企业都有主动控库存的行为等。其中不利天气是最大的客观因素。中国气象局7月3日在新闻发布会上表示，今年6月全国平均降水量115毫米，比常年同期偏多11.9%，整体呈现北旱南涝。在业内看来，啤酒也是一门“看天吃饭”的生意，高温天气有利啤酒消费，但雨水天气就会影响夜间户外就餐等客流，从而影响啤酒销量。值得一提的是，今年啤酒企业对欧洲杯的热情也在明显下降，比如一向对足球赛事青睐有加的喜力、嘉士伯等今年退出了官方赞助行列，“让位”德国本土品牌碧特博格，后者首次成为欧洲杯赞助商。此外，其余啤酒企业多以“曲线营销”方式参与欧洲杯，比如上一届欧洲杯期间，青岛啤酒在全国多座城市组织了上百场观赛派对、吸引了数万多人参与，但今年仅在部分城市举办了线下快闪店。借力“奥运经济”当然，业内普遍认为，今年啤酒的夏季攻势要从巴黎奥运会开始。因为啤酒消费高峰是在7、8月，加上巴黎奥运会的影响，啤酒企业更愿意重点发力7、8月以及奥运会，接下来啤酒行业“节味”会更加浓厚。钛媒体APP注意到，啤酒企业的夏季营销往往以“办节”为主，一年一度的啤酒节最为典型，比如目前为期24天的第34届青岛国际啤酒节已经开幕，且2024年青岛啤酒节将在全国各地举办上百场；2024年燕京啤酒（000729.SZ）节则于7月12日至21日在顺义举办。另外，音乐节历来是啤酒企业的主场。一到夏天，音乐节与啤酒奏响夏日狂欢，也是各啤酒企业拉动销量的方式。“啤酒+球赛”也营造了夏季特有消费场景。对于奥运会，百威在今年初就与国际奥委会签约，旗下科罗娜无醇啤酒将成为奥运官方啤酒赞助商，也将亮相巴黎奥运会开幕式，并且双方合作还将一直持续到2028年洛杉矶奥运会；重庆啤酒则请来了体育界知名人士田亮和国家跳水队教练刘犇作为代言人，围绕巴黎奥运展开“曲线营销”。燕京啤酒目前尚未公布具体营销手段，但在投资者提问公司是否有针对奥运会的行动和产品布局时回复称，“体育营销一直是燕京营销的主要抓手，公司一直高度重视体育营销及奥运会营销，将其作为公司营销规划的重要组成，目前公司正在按照年度营销计划高质量地稳步推进相关工作及活动。”业内分析认为，对比欧洲杯将比赛时段设置在北京时间的午夜和凌晨，巴黎奥运会对中国观众友好太多，足球、篮球、乒乓球、跳水等多个热门项目的比赛时段均设置在了北京时间的晚间黄金档。加上暴雨天气逐渐消退，全国气温不断攀升，啤酒销量有望迎来一波大涨。国信证券研报认为，北方已现高温天气，叠加今年有多项大型体育赛事，对啤酒企业第三季度销量会有一定拉动作用，而对于二季度铺货不及预期的一些啤酒企业，预计7月开始或加大追赶上半年的销量缺口。国泰君安研报则认为，今年第三季度行业销量景气度环比第二季度有所改善，区域型品牌表现更优，利润弹性大。成本下行提升企业盈利空间值得注意的是，尽管2024年为体育大年，奥运会等体育赛事能够为啤酒创造阶段性增长条件，但能否冲抵下半年消费淡季的影响，仍未可知。近日，高盛发表啤酒股报告表示，“内地啤酒市场短期正面对逆风，把啤酒股2024至2026年盈利预测分别下调1%至11%，以反映疲弱的消费趋势。”另有分析也认为，啤酒行业高端或超高端快速增长的时期已经过去，偏弱的消费环节和日益加剧的竞争态势为企业盈利增添了许多不确定因素。好的一面是今年啤酒成本下行红利明确，给行业形成利好局面。据了解，啤酒大麦、包材等原材料占比约70%，2020年我国大麦进口价格一路上行，至2022年达到高点。2023年以来，随着我国对澳大麦进口政策变动，大麦价格单边走低，价格由高位的410美元/吨下滑至267美元/吨。据海关最新统计数据显示，2023年，我国实现了大麦进口的显著增长，总量高达1132万吨，同比增长96.6%。最新数据显示，2024年1-3月，中国大麦进口量443万吨，同比增长162.2%。进口大麦成本的降低，有效缓解了啤酒企业原材料成本压力，使得盈利能力进一步提升。此外，成本红利还体现在包材上。自2023年1月起，我国玻璃、铝锭、瓦楞纸等包装材料的市场价格均出现回调，其中除铝锭外，多数材料价格已基本恢复至2020年的水平。今年以来，玻璃、瓦楞纸等包材价格亦有所走弱。从啤酒上市公司报表端来看，成本红利已有所体现，后续期待利润弹性持续释放。比如珠江啤酒（002461.SZ），其2024年上半年预计归母净利润4.76亿元-5.31亿元，扣非净利润为4.36亿元-4.87亿元，双双同比增长30%-45%。公司明确指出，降本增效是盈利增长的原因之一。需要指出的是，除了降本增效，提升产品创新升级亦是啤酒行业发展共识。市场研究公司Technavio的最新报告显示，全球啤酒市场目前正处于强劲增长，预计2024年至2028年市场将增长1484.3亿美元，预测期内的复合年增长率为3.72%。这一增长主要得益于新兴经济体需求的增加以及行业并购趋势的明显，特点是面向全球受众的多样化产品，包括啤酒、麦芽酒和无酒精饮料。研究指出，精酿啤酒的日益普及和更多独立啤酒厂的出现，反映了消费者偏好的变化，特别是在当地市场达到饮酒年龄的年轻消费者中。这些啤酒厂往往走在创新的前沿，提供更多口味和风格，特别吸引千禧一代和Z世代。在近期举办的“2024中国啤酒T5峰会”上，业内代表对此呼声一致，并表示啤酒高端化趋势不变，但高端化不仅仅是提价，而要更加多元，才能成为驱动购买的关键因素。查看原图 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没救了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288882917175488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":830816629,"gmtCreate":1629043257961,"gmtModify":1629043257961,"author":{"id":"3547173468803019","authorId":"3547173468803019","name":"俊bad","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547173468803019","authorIdStr":"3547173468803019"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"内卷","listText":"内卷","text":"内卷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830816629","repostId":"2159210072","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2159210072","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629036380,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2159210072?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021081522072979e19fda&s=b><strong>中关村在线</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中关村在线消息：近日，小米公司Redmi品牌总经理卢伟冰在微博发博称：“探讨和咨询一个问题：大家买*泰汽车很容易理解，毕竟价格大约是保*捷汽车的1/5-1/10。买保*捷手机我就有点想不明白，价格差不多，配置/做工差很多，为什么会去买一部“假牌”手机？理由是？”。卢伟冰在发博后不久便删除了该微博，但该微博的截图被网友保存，目前正在网上热传并引起了网友的热议，对此各位网友大家怎么看？(7746456...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021081522072979e19fda&s=b\">Web 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