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樱花葬123
2021-05-17
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
去逛了逛知乎 原来很多人都抱怨爱奇艺充了最贵的会员还是有无数剧内弹屏广告,那真是作死的节奏
樱花葬123
2021-05-30
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
能拍出隐秘的角落和棋魂...有什么理由不支持一下[贱笑] 看了多少年美剧也就这样了 刷了半年抖音也就腻了
樱花葬123
2021-03-26
$百度集团-SW(09888)$
木头姐逆势加仓 我也跟
樱花葬123
2021-05-11
$百度集团-SW(09888)$
这个IPO的确是个笑话
樱花葬123
2021-01-28
$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$
明天加仓 搞死空头
樱花葬123
2021-07-10
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
大家来讨论一下这周末两部重量级剧对打,谁会胜出[财迷]
樱花葬123
2021-07-15
$百度(BIDU)$
百度的自动驾驶注定会失败 这个和公司文化制度相关 看看百度系的产品线就知道了 这个票的实际股价应该在100刀以下
樱花葬123
2021-06-08
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
你最近咋这么牛[得意]
樱花葬123
2020-05-14
$Altimmune, Inc.(ALT)$
啥消息
樱花葬123
2021-07-09
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
目测这波要下10块 大家坐稳了
樱花葬123
2021-07-15
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
卧槽 看来这货真要倒闭了 北辙南辕这么垃圾的片子都能拍出来 过气的导演永不录用 哎
樱花葬123
2021-07-08
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
我艹,我真是SX,买什么垃圾中概……
樱花葬123
2021-06-04
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
已躺平
樱花葬123
2021-05-14
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
我擦 大A爆涨 纳斯达克爆涨 你还这幅德行?
樱花葬123
2020-12-15
这文章是哪个傻子写的
“耶伦若担任财长,美国将走向一场巨大的灾难”
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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大A爆涨 纳斯达克爆涨 你还这幅德行?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196912633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394237205,"gmtCreate":1608036671507,"gmtModify":1703850767813,"author":{"id":"3547024399900553","authorId":"3547024399900553","name":"樱花葬123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2cdec8ac9be74f454d128737505e73e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547024399900553","authorIdStr":"3547024399900553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这文章是哪个傻子写的","listText":"这文章是哪个傻子写的","text":"这文章是哪个傻子写的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394237205","repostId":"2091171871","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2091171871","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1608034514,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2091171871?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-15 20:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“耶伦若担任财长,美国将走向一场巨大的灾难”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2091171871","media":"金十数据","summary":"让前美联储主席耶伦出任财长≈实现“现代货币理论”?","content":"<html><body><p>日前,美国当选总统拜登宣布,将任命美联储前主席耶伦为新政府的财政部长,这一消息引来了各界一片喝彩声,无论是主流经济学界还是金融市场都认为耶伦是个很合适的人选。然而,著名金融评论家、投资人、《货币战争》等畅销书作者里卡兹(Jim Rickards)却警告说,美国很可能会从此走向一场巨大的灾难。</p><p>近年来,一位颇受争议的经济学家凯尔顿(Stephanie Kelton)在民主党政策圈子里正影响力与日俱增,而她最受争议的言论之一就是,<strong><span>呼吁将美联储和财政部合并,形成一个单一的支出/货币化机构,来贯彻所谓现代货币理论</span></strong>(Modern Monetary Theory,MMT)。</p><p>对这个苗头,投资者必须提起足够的警觉,因为这样的理念很可能会直接影响到拜登政府的财政和货币政策。<strong><span>让耶伦充当财政部长,其实就是一个明确的信号,表明拜登政府大概率倾向于采纳凯尔顿的理念。</span></strong></p><p>让前美联储主席成为新财长,与她昔日的助手、现在的美联储主席通力合作——要推动两机构的实质性合并,还有比这更好的安排吗?事实上,现在这任务几乎可以说完成了一半了。</p><p>如果有人现在还不熟悉现代货币理论,在此不妨做一个最简单直接的解释——这理论的信奉者认为,<strong><span>美国政府可以由着性子去支出,用举债的方法来填补所有赤字,然后再让美联储放量印钞,将债务货币化。</span></strong></p><p>这“理论”甚至都不能称为一种理论,因为它缺乏最基本的论证,同时所谓“现代”的定语也经不住推敲,因为它已经存在了大约一百年。只是,它确实是直到不久前,才开始进入华盛顿的主流视野,乃至于变得炙手可热的。</p><p>现代货币理论有三个基本要义。</p><p>第一点,将财政部和美联储视为单一机构,共享同一张资产负债表。从法律层面说来,这两个机构是完全各自独立的,但是现代货币理论坚持说,政府完全可以将两者当作一体来运作。</p><p>换言之,他们就是要将财政部和美联储整合在一起,成为一个单一的支出、举债和印钞马达。</p><p>第二点则是,不管美国公众是否愿意,他们都必须接受美元,用其来缴税——如果拒绝缴税,就会被投入监狱。实质上,美元就是用枪杆子来支持的。</p><p>第三点在于,美国到底能够发行多少国债,其实并没有实质性的限制。现在,<strong>美国国债对国内生产总值的比率已经从去年的106%窜升到130%</strong>,让许多观察家忧心忡忡,但是现代货币理论信徒们却强调,日本的比率已经超过了250%,所以美国继续疯狂借债也没有问题。</p><p>麻烦在于,这些所谓要义都存在致命的缺陷。<strong>日本并不是一个合适的例子,因为日本的债券主要都是卖给了日本国民,而美国则高度依赖海外投资者,更加不必说,日本经济已经几乎三十年没有增长了,美国若是也如此,后果不堪设想。</strong></p><p>美国政府当然可以在幕后悄然合并美联储和财政部的运作,但是,金融市场一旦发现美国正在进行债务货币化操作,信心就会受损,利率就会攀升,整个金字塔就会彻底崩塌。</p><p>当国民对美元失去了信心,他们就会尽可能选择<strong><span>土地、黄金、白银、自然资源</span></strong>等等其他硬资产,而不再愿意持有美元。只要没有兑现利得,就无需缴税,因此现代货币理论的税务政策自然也就派不上用场。</p><p>如果现代货币理论真的主导了华盛顿,那就将成为一场巨大的灾难。如果你是在投资发展前景大好的资产,那么借钱当然没有问题,可是如果你借钱只是为了四处派发,来支撑停滞不前的经济,那么这实际上就是在给自己挖一个越来越深的大坑。</p><p>想象一下,当新国会通过若干万亿美元的赤字支出计划,财政部花掉这些钱,美美联储再用自己新印刷出来的美钞购买财政部发行的国债……到了最后,等待美国的只能是<strong>债务违约、通货膨胀、更高的利率、更高的税率等</strong>。</p><p>美国破产,这一可怕的现实也许不久之后就将到来,而执掌全局,引领美国走到那一步的,也许正是对此根本没有清醒认识的耶伦。</p><hr/><p>本文来自英为财情</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“耶伦若担任财长,美国将走向一场巨大的灾难”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-15 20:15 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=68203&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>日前,美国当选总统拜登宣布,将任命美联储前主席耶伦为新政府的财政部长,这一消息引来了各界一片喝彩声,无论是主流经济学界还是金融市场都认为耶伦是个很合适的人选。然而,著名金融评论家、投资人、《货币战争》等畅销书作者里卡兹(Jim Rickards)却警告说,美国很可能会从此走向一场巨大的灾难。近年来,一位颇受争议的经济学家凯尔顿(Stephanie Kelton)在民主党政策圈子里正影响力与日俱增,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=68203&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/0b7a0cf8-776f-498f-8373-44bc9fb887b2.png/lite","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=68203&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2091171871","content_text":"日前,美国当选总统拜登宣布,将任命美联储前主席耶伦为新政府的财政部长,这一消息引来了各界一片喝彩声,无论是主流经济学界还是金融市场都认为耶伦是个很合适的人选。然而,著名金融评论家、投资人、《货币战争》等畅销书作者里卡兹(Jim Rickards)却警告说,美国很可能会从此走向一场巨大的灾难。近年来,一位颇受争议的经济学家凯尔顿(Stephanie Kelton)在民主党政策圈子里正影响力与日俱增,而她最受争议的言论之一就是,呼吁将美联储和财政部合并,形成一个单一的支出/货币化机构,来贯彻所谓现代货币理论(Modern Monetary Theory,MMT)。对这个苗头,投资者必须提起足够的警觉,因为这样的理念很可能会直接影响到拜登政府的财政和货币政策。让耶伦充当财政部长,其实就是一个明确的信号,表明拜登政府大概率倾向于采纳凯尔顿的理念。让前美联储主席成为新财长,与她昔日的助手、现在的美联储主席通力合作——要推动两机构的实质性合并,还有比这更好的安排吗?事实上,现在这任务几乎可以说完成了一半了。如果有人现在还不熟悉现代货币理论,在此不妨做一个最简单直接的解释——这理论的信奉者认为,美国政府可以由着性子去支出,用举债的方法来填补所有赤字,然后再让美联储放量印钞,将债务货币化。这“理论”甚至都不能称为一种理论,因为它缺乏最基本的论证,同时所谓“现代”的定语也经不住推敲,因为它已经存在了大约一百年。只是,它确实是直到不久前,才开始进入华盛顿的主流视野,乃至于变得炙手可热的。现代货币理论有三个基本要义。第一点,将财政部和美联储视为单一机构,共享同一张资产负债表。从法律层面说来,这两个机构是完全各自独立的,但是现代货币理论坚持说,政府完全可以将两者当作一体来运作。换言之,他们就是要将财政部和美联储整合在一起,成为一个单一的支出、举债和印钞马达。第二点则是,不管美国公众是否愿意,他们都必须接受美元,用其来缴税——如果拒绝缴税,就会被投入监狱。实质上,美元就是用枪杆子来支持的。第三点在于,美国到底能够发行多少国债,其实并没有实质性的限制。现在,美国国债对国内生产总值的比率已经从去年的106%窜升到130%,让许多观察家忧心忡忡,但是现代货币理论信徒们却强调,日本的比率已经超过了250%,所以美国继续疯狂借债也没有问题。麻烦在于,这些所谓要义都存在致命的缺陷。日本并不是一个合适的例子,因为日本的债券主要都是卖给了日本国民,而美国则高度依赖海外投资者,更加不必说,日本经济已经几乎三十年没有增长了,美国若是也如此,后果不堪设想。美国政府当然可以在幕后悄然合并美联储和财政部的运作,但是,金融市场一旦发现美国正在进行债务货币化操作,信心就会受损,利率就会攀升,整个金字塔就会彻底崩塌。当国民对美元失去了信心,他们就会尽可能选择土地、黄金、白银、自然资源等等其他硬资产,而不再愿意持有美元。只要没有兑现利得,就无需缴税,因此现代货币理论的税务政策自然也就派不上用场。如果现代货币理论真的主导了华盛顿,那就将成为一场巨大的灾难。如果你是在投资发展前景大好的资产,那么借钱当然没有问题,可是如果你借钱只是为了四处派发,来支撑停滞不前的经济,那么这实际上就是在给自己挖一个越来越深的大坑。想象一下,当新国会通过若干万亿美元的赤字支出计划,财政部花掉这些钱,美美联储再用自己新印刷出来的美钞购买财政部发行的国债……到了最后,等待美国的只能是债务违约、通货膨胀、更高的利率、更高的税率等。美国破产,这一可怕的现实也许不久之后就将到来,而执掌全局,引领美国走到那一步的,也许正是对此根本没有清醒认识的耶伦。本文来自英为财情","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}