樱花葬123的个人主页 - 老虎社区

樱花葬123

樱花葬123

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0勋章

2021-05-17

$爱奇艺(IQ)$去逛了逛知乎原来很多人都抱怨爱奇艺充了最贵的会员还是有无数剧内弹屏广告，那真是作死的节奏

2021-05-30

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 能拍出隐秘的角落和棋魂...有什么理由不支持一下[贱笑] 看了多少年美剧也就这样了刷了半年抖音也就腻了

2021-03-26

$百度集团-SW(09888)$木头姐逆势加仓我也跟

2021-05-11

$百度集团-SW(09888)$这个IPO的确是个笑话

2021-01-28

$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$明天加仓搞死空头

2021-07-10

$爱奇艺(IQ)$大家来讨论一下这周末两部重量级剧对打，谁会胜出[财迷]

2021-07-15

$百度(BIDU)$百度的自动驾驶注定会失败这个和公司文化制度相关看看百度系的产品线就知道了这个票的实际股价应该在100刀以下

2021-06-08

$爱奇艺(IQ)$你最近咋这么牛[得意]

2020-05-14

$Altimmune, Inc.(ALT)$啥消息

2021-07-09

$爱奇艺(IQ)$目测这波要下10块大家坐稳了

2021-07-15

$爱奇艺(IQ)$卧槽看来这货真要倒闭了北辙南辕这么垃圾的片子都能拍出来过气的导演永不录用哎

2021-07-08

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$我艹，我真是SX，买什么垃圾中概……

2021-06-04

$爱奇艺(IQ)$已躺平

2021-05-14

$爱奇艺(IQ)$我擦大A爆涨纳斯达克爆涨你还这幅德行？

2020-12-15

这文章是哪个傻子写的

“耶伦若担任财长，美国将走向一场巨大的灾难”

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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大A爆涨 纳斯达克爆涨 你还这幅德行？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/196912633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394237205,"gmtCreate":1608036671507,"gmtModify":1703850767813,"author":{"id":"3547024399900553","authorId":"3547024399900553","name":"樱花葬123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2cdec8ac9be74f454d128737505e73e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547024399900553","authorIdStr":"3547024399900553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这文章是哪个傻子写的","listText":"这文章是哪个傻子写的","text":"这文章是哪个傻子写的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394237205","repostId":"2091171871","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2091171871","pubTimestamp":1608034514,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2091171871?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-15 20:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“耶伦若担任财长，美国将走向一场巨大的灾难”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2091171871","media":"金十数据","summary":"让前美联储主席耶伦出任财长≈实现“现代货币理论”？","content":"<html><body><p>日前，美国当选总统拜登宣布，将任命美联储前主席耶伦为新政府的财政部长，这一消息引来了各界一片喝彩声，无论是主流经济学界还是金融市场都认为耶伦是个很合适的人选。然而，著名金融评论家、投资人、《货币战争》等畅销书作者里卡兹（Jim Rickards）却警告说，美国很可能会从此走向一场巨大的灾难。</p><p>近年来，一位颇受争议的经济学家凯尔顿（Stephanie Kelton）在民主党政策圈子里正影响力与日俱增，而她最受争议的言论之一就是，<strong><span>呼吁将美联储和财政部合并，形成一个单一的支出/货币化机构，来贯彻所谓现代货币理论</span></strong>（Modern Monetary Theory，MMT）。</p><p>对这个苗头，投资者必须提起足够的警觉，因为这样的理念很可能会直接影响到拜登政府的财政和货币政策。<strong><span>让耶伦充当财政部长，其实就是一个明确的信号，表明拜登政府大概率倾向于采纳凯尔顿的理念。</span></strong></p><p>让前美联储主席成为新财长，与她昔日的助手、现在的美联储主席通力合作——要推动两机构的实质性合并，还有比这更好的安排吗？事实上，现在这任务几乎可以说完成了一半了。</p><p>如果有人现在还不熟悉现代货币理论，在此不妨做一个最简单直接的解释——这理论的信奉者认为，<strong><span>美国政府可以由着性子去支出，用举债的方法来填补所有赤字，然后再让美联储放量印钞，将债务货币化。</span></strong></p><p>这“理论”甚至都不能称为一种理论，因为它缺乏最基本的论证，同时所谓“现代”的定语也经不住推敲，因为它已经存在了大约一百年。只是，它确实是直到不久前，才开始进入华盛顿的主流视野，乃至于变得炙手可热的。</p><p>现代货币理论有三个基本要义。</p><p>第一点，将财政部和美联储视为单一机构，共享同一张资产负债表。从法律层面说来，这两个机构是完全各自独立的，但是现代货币理论坚持说，政府完全可以将两者当作一体来运作。</p><p>换言之，他们就是要将财政部和美联储整合在一起，成为一个单一的支出、举债和印钞马达。</p><p>第二点则是，不管美国公众是否愿意，他们都必须接受美元，用其来缴税——如果拒绝缴税，就会被投入监狱。实质上，美元就是用枪杆子来支持的。</p><p>第三点在于，美国到底能够发行多少国债，其实并没有实质性的限制。现在，<strong>美国国债对国内生产总值的比率已经从去年的106%窜升到130%</strong>，让许多观察家忧心忡忡，但是现代货币理论信徒们却强调，日本的比率已经超过了250%，所以美国继续疯狂借债也没有问题。</p><p>麻烦在于，这些所谓要义都存在致命的缺陷。<strong>日本并不是一个合适的例子，因为日本的债券主要都是卖给了日本国民，而美国则高度依赖海外投资者，更加不必说，日本经济已经几乎三十年没有增长了，美国若是也如此，后果不堪设想。</strong></p><p>美国政府当然可以在幕后悄然合并美联储和财政部的运作，但是，金融市场一旦发现美国正在进行债务货币化操作，信心就会受损，利率就会攀升，整个金字塔就会彻底崩塌。</p><p>当国民对美元失去了信心，他们就会尽可能选择<strong><span>土地、黄金、白银、自然资源</span></strong>等等其他硬资产，而不再愿意持有美元。只要没有兑现利得，就无需缴税，因此现代货币理论的税务政策自然也就派不上用场。</p><p>如果现代货币理论真的主导了华盛顿，那就将成为一场巨大的灾难。如果你是在投资发展前景大好的资产，那么借钱当然没有问题，可是如果你借钱只是为了四处派发，来支撑停滞不前的经济，那么这实际上就是在给自己挖一个越来越深的大坑。</p><p>想象一下，当新国会通过若干万亿美元的赤字支出计划，财政部花掉这些钱，美美联储再用自己新印刷出来的美钞购买财政部发行的国债……到了最后，等待美国的只能是<strong>债务违约、通货膨胀、更高的利率、更高的税率等</strong>。</p><p>美国破产，这一可怕的现实也许不久之后就将到来，而执掌全局，引领美国走到那一步的，也许正是对此根本没有清醒认识的耶伦。</p><hr/><p>本文来自英为财情</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“耶伦若担任财长，美国将走向一场巨大的灾难”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“耶伦若担任财长，美国将走向一场巨大的灾难”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-15 20:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=68203&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>日前，美国当选总统拜登宣布，将任命美联储前主席耶伦为新政府的财政部长，这一消息引来了各界一片喝彩声，无论是主流经济学界还是金融市场都认为耶伦是个很合适的人选。然而，著名金融评论家、投资人、《货币战争》等畅销书作者里卡兹（Jim Rickards）却警告说，美国很可能会从此走向一场巨大的灾难。近年来，一位颇受争议的经济学家凯尔顿（Stephanie Kelton）在民主党政策圈子里正影响力与日俱增，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=68203&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/0b7a0cf8-776f-498f-8373-44bc9fb887b2.png/lite","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=68203&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2091171871","content_text":"日前，美国当选总统拜登宣布，将任命美联储前主席耶伦为新政府的财政部长，这一消息引来了各界一片喝彩声，无论是主流经济学界还是金融市场都认为耶伦是个很合适的人选。然而，著名金融评论家、投资人、《货币战争》等畅销书作者里卡兹（Jim Rickards）却警告说，美国很可能会从此走向一场巨大的灾难。近年来，一位颇受争议的经济学家凯尔顿（Stephanie Kelton）在民主党政策圈子里正影响力与日俱增，而她最受争议的言论之一就是，呼吁将美联储和财政部合并，形成一个单一的支出/货币化机构，来贯彻所谓现代货币理论（Modern Monetary Theory，MMT）。对这个苗头，投资者必须提起足够的警觉，因为这样的理念很可能会直接影响到拜登政府的财政和货币政策。让耶伦充当财政部长，其实就是一个明确的信号，表明拜登政府大概率倾向于采纳凯尔顿的理念。让前美联储主席成为新财长，与她昔日的助手、现在的美联储主席通力合作——要推动两机构的实质性合并，还有比这更好的安排吗？事实上，现在这任务几乎可以说完成了一半了。如果有人现在还不熟悉现代货币理论，在此不妨做一个最简单直接的解释——这理论的信奉者认为，美国政府可以由着性子去支出，用举债的方法来填补所有赤字，然后再让美联储放量印钞，将债务货币化。这“理论”甚至都不能称为一种理论，因为它缺乏最基本的论证，同时所谓“现代”的定语也经不住推敲，因为它已经存在了大约一百年。只是，它确实是直到不久前，才开始进入华盛顿的主流视野，乃至于变得炙手可热的。现代货币理论有三个基本要义。第一点，将财政部和美联储视为单一机构，共享同一张资产负债表。从法律层面说来，这两个机构是完全各自独立的，但是现代货币理论坚持说，政府完全可以将两者当作一体来运作。换言之，他们就是要将财政部和美联储整合在一起，成为一个单一的支出、举债和印钞马达。第二点则是，不管美国公众是否愿意，他们都必须接受美元，用其来缴税——如果拒绝缴税，就会被投入监狱。实质上，美元就是用枪杆子来支持的。第三点在于，美国到底能够发行多少国债，其实并没有实质性的限制。现在，美国国债对国内生产总值的比率已经从去年的106%窜升到130%，让许多观察家忧心忡忡，但是现代货币理论信徒们却强调，日本的比率已经超过了250%，所以美国继续疯狂借债也没有问题。麻烦在于，这些所谓要义都存在致命的缺陷。日本并不是一个合适的例子，因为日本的债券主要都是卖给了日本国民，而美国则高度依赖海外投资者，更加不必说，日本经济已经几乎三十年没有增长了，美国若是也如此，后果不堪设想。美国政府当然可以在幕后悄然合并美联储和财政部的运作，但是，金融市场一旦发现美国正在进行债务货币化操作，信心就会受损，利率就会攀升，整个金字塔就会彻底崩塌。当国民对美元失去了信心，他们就会尽可能选择土地、黄金、白银、自然资源等等其他硬资产，而不再愿意持有美元。只要没有兑现利得，就无需缴税，因此现代货币理论的税务政策自然也就派不上用场。如果现代货币理论真的主导了华盛顿，那就将成为一场巨大的灾难。如果你是在投资发展前景大好的资产，那么借钱当然没有问题，可是如果你借钱只是为了四处派发，来支撑停滞不前的经济，那么这实际上就是在给自己挖一个越来越深的大坑。想象一下，当新国会通过若干万亿美元的赤字支出计划，财政部花掉这些钱，美美联储再用自己新印刷出来的美钞购买财政部发行的国债……到了最后，等待美国的只能是债务违约、通货膨胀、更高的利率、更高的税率等。美国破产，这一可怕的现实也许不久之后就将到来，而执掌全局，引领美国走到那一步的，也许正是对此根本没有清醒认识的耶伦。本文来自英为财情","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1000,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}