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霞哥_1262

霞哥_1262

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IP属地：湖北

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2020-09-24

$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$是准备退市了吗

2020-09-22

$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$难道是假生物，看样子是准备退市

2020-08-12

$Borr Drilling Ltd(BORR)$低调过头

2020-07-31

$Exantas Capital Corp(XAN)$ 财报怎么看不到呢

2020-04-06

$众巢医学(ZCMD)$年报怎么还没有出来，是不是也在造假

2020-04-03

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$ 都爆单了，现在知道什么是真假了吗

2020-04-02

$众巢医学(ZCMD)$今晚表现好，今晚交易量放大了不少，不像前几天一天没几手成交

2020-03-13

这个垃圾还谈什么

抱歉，原内容已删除

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21:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"卸下偏见看拼多多：到底是“必死”还是“无敌”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169643713","media":"见闻IPO","summary":"导读：依然是那个直击灵魂的拷问：拼多多是否有能力把“羊毛党”变成“剁手党”？\n美东时间3月11日盘前，拼多多$(PDD)$公布2019年四季度财报。拼多多这个季度经营亏损21亿，好于市场预期的31亿亏","content":"<p><b><i><span>导读：</span></i></b><i><span>依然是那个直击灵魂的拷问：拼多多是否有能力把“羊毛党”变成“剁手党”？</span></i></p>\n<p><span>美东时间3月11日盘前，拼多多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$(PDD)$</a>公布2019年四季度财报。拼多多这个季度经营亏损21亿，好于市场预期的31亿亏损。</span></p>\n<p><span>只是这个不是重点！重点是GMV再次令市场失望了：本季度GMV见智测算大约为3706亿，全年GMV在前高后低的情况下勉强过了万亿大关。</span></p>\n<p><span>而结合本季度新增买家大涨4900万，而GMV增速加速放缓至113%，背后依然是那个核心拷问：</span></p>\n<p><b><span>新增用户到底是为了羊毛而来，还是真正看中了拼多多的商品、服务，买完一次后会开启持续买买买的模式？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>如果越来越多的新增用户只是为了撸个羊毛、尝尝鲜，而不是买了一次之后持续购买没有太多羊毛可撸的其他商品（也就是常说的交叉销售），那么拼多多走完自己一直擅长的“获客、获客再获客”粗放式增长后，接下来的大考才真正来临：</span></p>\n<p><b><span>拼多多要如何在商户、商品、品类的丰富和层次上打磨，让用户不仅可以买到便宜货，还能在快消、家居、服饰、母婴、家电、3C等，各个品类与商品上找到便宜又优质的货品？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>而这个背后是商户管理、商品与品类供给、物流服务与平台招商等综合供给侧发力的结果。</span></p>\n<p><span>巨头在上，拼多多的逆袭之路才刚刚开始！</span></p>\n<p><span>同时，对于市场上极端看空拼多多的资金，见智也要提醒一下，要避免不成功便成仁的极端化思维方式：</span></p>\n<p><span>一个C端用户的APP，能做到6亿的用户，必然是满足了网民普适性的需求，而不是简单靠一两百亿能够解释的。</span></p>\n<p><span>而且互联网各种变现模式中，电商对于用户变现效率远远高于其他模式，极端唱空拼多多是缺少对于商业本质的基本理解。</span></p>\n<p><span>见智坚持此前判断，一个6亿用户的APP即使向上突破存在困难，向下同样也已形成了估值的安全边际。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>详细分析前先看一下本季财报核心看点</span></b></p>\n<p><span>拼多多自上季发布失望财报股价暴跌又修复，截止目前仍下跌约7%，且期间表现亦如见智判断，出现下有底、上有顶的区间震荡状态。</span></p>\n<p><span>公司股价向上突破遇阻：拼多多尚需向市场证明走出获客顶峰之后，拼多多可以逐渐把“羊毛党”养成持续买买买的“剁手党”。</span></p>\n<p><span>而下方的安全边际同样明显：拼多多高达6亿买家共同铸成的电商用户价值安全垫。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>而本季度拼多多的核心看点主要有</span></b><span>：</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><span>在阿里主场的电商旺季，拼多多的年活买家数能否持续惊艳？</span></p></li>\n <li><p><span>GMV表现是否持续疲软？</span></p></li>\n <li><p><span>而这两个数据背后反映的单个买家数消费额又隐含了怎样的用户粘性趋势？</span></p></li>\n <li><p><span>为实现这些新增买家与GMV数据，拼多多付出多大的营销费用代价？</span></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><span><br>以下，见智就带着这些疑问，尝试在本季度的财报中寻找答案：</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1. 用户清洗要洗到头了？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>本季度买家数魔力持续：截止本季度末拼多多年度买家数已达到了5.85亿，净增4900万！而此前京东即使新增用户开始放量，也不过2800万。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过在绝对值上，上季度净增5300万，本季明显高位回落，而考虑到当前整体网购用户的大盘，6亿用户的分水岭近在眼前。</span></p>\n<p><span>随着C端用户获客瓶颈加速到来，拼多多在B端供给侧的问题也会愈加突出。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e48fdac8251f44c7e605f8be1d7863eb\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><span>本季度，拼多多APP独立月活用户数（打开APP的用户数）本季度末净增5200万，达到了4.82亿，依然在快速增长。</span></p>\n<p><span>见智注意到拼多多当下的很多营销玩法会引导用户先行下载APP，强化将微信用户清洗到自有APP上。</span></p>\n<p><span>这在一定程度上暗示拼多多清洗用户流量逐步到顶，运营端开始强调用户的迁移，强化拼多多独立APP作为自有流量池的地位。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54919380180062a7f68ecaf3f898b65c\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><b><span>2. 新用户继续 “撸羊毛”？拼多多要拼内功了</span></b></p>\n<p><span>拼多多截止本季度末的年度GMV为1.01万亿，算是勉强突破万亿大关，基本实现了拼多多2018年时定下的目标，只是此前二季度数据过好，抬高了市场预期之后，最终先扬后抑，全年勉强达标，市场很难买账。</span></p>\n<p><span>趋势上，本季度同比增长113%，持续快速放缓；本季度GMV见智估计为3706亿，同比增长从上季度的111%快速放缓至81%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f1666acde1b18b8e3e056eab3c386c\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><span>而统筹观察用户数与GMV，背后反映的问题与上季度令市场大跌眼镜的财报如出一辙：</span></p>\n<p><span>用补贴拉来的新增买家购买热情不足，导致单个买家贡献的消费额增速明显放缓：该指标的同比增速53%，较上季度的75%，继续快速回落。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>要知道单用户的消费额，由平均客单价和单用户下单次数构成</span></b><span>，</span><span><b>在已知客单价持续向上的情况下，单用户消费额增速的放缓只能说明新增用户来了之后并不热衷于持续剁手。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>依然是那个直击灵魂的问题：新增用户是不是越来越多单纯奔着百亿补贴过来“撸羊毛”的？</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756a9982ecda639fe3938d087f8e6011\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><b><span>当用户量逐步走到天花板之后，任何一家电商平台都走到精细化运营和供给侧补位上来。面对高质用户的需求，即使是性价比需求，也需要拼多多在商品的丰富度、层次感、物流等上做出区分度</span></b><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来，才是拼真功夫的时刻！</span></p>\n<p><b><span>3.拼多多要节制营销费用？想多了！</span></b></p>\n<p><span>从本季度的数据来看，营销费用（主要线上效果广告、线上线下品宣广告和用户补贴）93亿，绝对值上继续芝麻开花节节高，确实是实打实的“百亿”补贴。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bc6b424b85e344de488dd31ee793f\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><span>从占比上来看，营销费用本季度继续落在了营收额的下方，营销费用率为86%，不过这样的数据依然令人咋舌。</span></p>\n<p><span>此前还有券商研报认为，拼多多可能逐步克制营销费用的投放，甚至预测公司可能逐步接近盈利！</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这个季度拼多多再次用响亮的数字回应了：</span></b><span>拼多多这个公司正如黄铮所说，还是个呱呱坠地的“婴儿”，利润短期还是不用有太多想法。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>在其他重要数据上：</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>1.</span></b><span>拼多多本季度营业收入108亿人民币，同比增长91%，不及市场预期均值111亿，主要是GMV表现不及市场预期。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d22428b756ad71d4f2e38d630abe7a\"></p>\n<p><b><span>2.</span></b><span>本季度GMV到广告营销收入的变现率为2.61%， 较去年同期稍有强化。而单季环比大致可以看出，在阿里主场的电商旺季，拼多多变现反而不如此前两个季度。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20bad842a175138352eaa9585f73dcea\"></p>\n<p><b><span>3.</span></b><span>本季度毛利87.6亿，同比增长107%；毛利率81%，显著高于市场预期均值75.6%。</span></p>\n<p><span>公司对毛利率没有明确指引，而从趋势来看，拼多多毛利率表现一直都不稳定。</span></p>\n<p><span>只是，当前拼多多的爆发式增长要求公司持续补齐商户支持、客服中心等短板，见智认为短期波动并不改长期毛利率面临上行压力的情况。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54474dee9af0b2b4ca4619e48201727e\"></p>\n<p><b><span>4.</span></b><span>本季度经营亏损为-21亿元，优于市场预期的-31亿。</span></p>\n<p><span>而如果观察超预期的原因，除了毛利率改善，行政费用率与研发费用率同样表现较好，而并非因市场最为关心的营销费用改善带动。</span></p>\n<p><span>本季度研发费用12.7亿，增速较上季度放缓，费用率为11.8%，占比也有所下降。</span></p>\n<p><span>而行政费用则非常令人意外，这个季度仅3.5亿，同比仅增7%。另外公司发放的股权激励占收入的比重也在下降。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>见智综合认为，拼多多对内有节约开支的苗头，而对待用户上依然是慷慨大方</span></b><span>。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d1bffee47e43311ff81f86e3cb6103\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6329d8e3a1c72e1f4b1f7496df392597\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><b><span>综述：</span></b></p>\n<p><span>见智一直强调，用户获客到顶也意味着拼多多用用户来拉增长的粗放式增长基本告一段落，未来是平台供给侧、精细化运营的较量。</span></p>\n<p><span>巨头在上，拼多多的战役才刚刚开始！</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>卸下偏见看拼多多：到底是“必死”还是“无敌”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n卸下偏见看拼多多：到底是“必死”还是“无敌”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083533104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/0717bf7b1e5642e9827aeffbf11eb9ad);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">见闻IPO </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-11 21:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><i><span>导读：</span></i></b><i><span>依然是那个直击灵魂的拷问：拼多多是否有能力把“羊毛党”变成“剁手党”？</span></i></p>\n<p><span>美东时间3月11日盘前，拼多多<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$(PDD)$</a>公布2019年四季度财报。拼多多这个季度经营亏损21亿，好于市场预期的31亿亏损。</span></p>\n<p><span>只是这个不是重点！重点是GMV再次令市场失望了：本季度GMV见智测算大约为3706亿，全年GMV在前高后低的情况下勉强过了万亿大关。</span></p>\n<p><span>而结合本季度新增买家大涨4900万，而GMV增速加速放缓至113%，背后依然是那个核心拷问：</span></p>\n<p><b><span>新增用户到底是为了羊毛而来，还是真正看中了拼多多的商品、服务，买完一次后会开启持续买买买的模式？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>如果越来越多的新增用户只是为了撸个羊毛、尝尝鲜，而不是买了一次之后持续购买没有太多羊毛可撸的其他商品（也就是常说的交叉销售），那么拼多多走完自己一直擅长的“获客、获客再获客”粗放式增长后，接下来的大考才真正来临：</span></p>\n<p><b><span>拼多多要如何在商户、商品、品类的丰富和层次上打磨，让用户不仅可以买到便宜货，还能在快消、家居、服饰、母婴、家电、3C等，各个品类与商品上找到便宜又优质的货品？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>而这个背后是商户管理、商品与品类供给、物流服务与平台招商等综合供给侧发力的结果。</span></p>\n<p><span>巨头在上，拼多多的逆袭之路才刚刚开始！</span></p>\n<p><span>同时，对于市场上极端看空拼多多的资金，见智也要提醒一下，要避免不成功便成仁的极端化思维方式：</span></p>\n<p><span>一个C端用户的APP，能做到6亿的用户，必然是满足了网民普适性的需求，而不是简单靠一两百亿能够解释的。</span></p>\n<p><span>而且互联网各种变现模式中，电商对于用户变现效率远远高于其他模式，极端唱空拼多多是缺少对于商业本质的基本理解。</span></p>\n<p><span>见智坚持此前判断，一个6亿用户的APP即使向上突破存在困难，向下同样也已形成了估值的安全边际。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>详细分析前先看一下本季财报核心看点</span></b></p>\n<p><span>拼多多自上季发布失望财报股价暴跌又修复，截止目前仍下跌约7%，且期间表现亦如见智判断，出现下有底、上有顶的区间震荡状态。</span></p>\n<p><span>公司股价向上突破遇阻：拼多多尚需向市场证明走出获客顶峰之后，拼多多可以逐渐把“羊毛党”养成持续买买买的“剁手党”。</span></p>\n<p><span>而下方的安全边际同样明显：拼多多高达6亿买家共同铸成的电商用户价值安全垫。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>而本季度拼多多的核心看点主要有</span></b><span>：</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><span>在阿里主场的电商旺季，拼多多的年活买家数能否持续惊艳？</span></p></li>\n <li><p><span>GMV表现是否持续疲软？</span></p></li>\n <li><p><span>而这两个数据背后反映的单个买家数消费额又隐含了怎样的用户粘性趋势？</span></p></li>\n <li><p><span>为实现这些新增买家与GMV数据，拼多多付出多大的营销费用代价？</span></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><span><br>以下，见智就带着这些疑问，尝试在本季度的财报中寻找答案：</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1. 用户清洗要洗到头了？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>本季度买家数魔力持续：截止本季度末拼多多年度买家数已达到了5.85亿，净增4900万！而此前京东即使新增用户开始放量，也不过2800万。</span></p>\n<p><span>不过在绝对值上，上季度净增5300万，本季明显高位回落，而考虑到当前整体网购用户的大盘，6亿用户的分水岭近在眼前。</span></p>\n<p><span>随着C端用户获客瓶颈加速到来，拼多多在B端供给侧的问题也会愈加突出。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e48fdac8251f44c7e605f8be1d7863eb\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><span>本季度，拼多多APP独立月活用户数（打开APP的用户数）本季度末净增5200万，达到了4.82亿，依然在快速增长。</span></p>\n<p><span>见智注意到拼多多当下的很多营销玩法会引导用户先行下载APP，强化将微信用户清洗到自有APP上。</span></p>\n<p><span>这在一定程度上暗示拼多多清洗用户流量逐步到顶，运营端开始强调用户的迁移，强化拼多多独立APP作为自有流量池的地位。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54919380180062a7f68ecaf3f898b65c\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><b><span>2. 新用户继续 “撸羊毛”？拼多多要拼内功了</span></b></p>\n<p><span>拼多多截止本季度末的年度GMV为1.01万亿，算是勉强突破万亿大关，基本实现了拼多多2018年时定下的目标，只是此前二季度数据过好，抬高了市场预期之后，最终先扬后抑，全年勉强达标，市场很难买账。</span></p>\n<p><span>趋势上，本季度同比增长113%，持续快速放缓；本季度GMV见智估计为3706亿，同比增长从上季度的111%快速放缓至81%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f1666acde1b18b8e3e056eab3c386c\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><span>而统筹观察用户数与GMV，背后反映的问题与上季度令市场大跌眼镜的财报如出一辙：</span></p>\n<p><span>用补贴拉来的新增买家购买热情不足，导致单个买家贡献的消费额增速明显放缓：该指标的同比增速53%，较上季度的75%，继续快速回落。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>要知道单用户的消费额，由平均客单价和单用户下单次数构成</span></b><span>，</span><span><b>在已知客单价持续向上的情况下，单用户消费额增速的放缓只能说明新增用户来了之后并不热衷于持续剁手。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>依然是那个直击灵魂的问题：新增用户是不是越来越多单纯奔着百亿补贴过来“撸羊毛”的？</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/756a9982ecda639fe3938d087f8e6011\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><b><span>当用户量逐步走到天花板之后，任何一家电商平台都走到精细化运营和供给侧补位上来。面对高质用户的需求，即使是性价比需求，也需要拼多多在商品的丰富度、层次感、物流等上做出区分度</span></b><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来，才是拼真功夫的时刻！</span></p>\n<p><b><span>3.拼多多要节制营销费用？想多了！</span></b></p>\n<p><span>从本季度的数据来看，营销费用（主要线上效果广告、线上线下品宣广告和用户补贴）93亿，绝对值上继续芝麻开花节节高，确实是实打实的“百亿”补贴。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bc6b424b85e344de488dd31ee793f\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><span>从占比上来看，营销费用本季度继续落在了营收额的下方，营销费用率为86%，不过这样的数据依然令人咋舌。</span></p>\n<p><span>此前还有券商研报认为，拼多多可能逐步克制营销费用的投放，甚至预测公司可能逐步接近盈利！</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这个季度拼多多再次用响亮的数字回应了：</span></b><span>拼多多这个公司正如黄铮所说，还是个呱呱坠地的“婴儿”，利润短期还是不用有太多想法。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>在其他重要数据上：</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>1.</span></b><span>拼多多本季度营业收入108亿人民币，同比增长91%，不及市场预期均值111亿，主要是GMV表现不及市场预期。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d22428b756ad71d4f2e38d630abe7a\"></p>\n<p><b><span>2.</span></b><span>本季度GMV到广告营销收入的变现率为2.61%， 较去年同期稍有强化。而单季环比大致可以看出，在阿里主场的电商旺季，拼多多变现反而不如此前两个季度。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20bad842a175138352eaa9585f73dcea\"></p>\n<p><b><span>3.</span></b><span>本季度毛利87.6亿，同比增长107%；毛利率81%，显著高于市场预期均值75.6%。</span></p>\n<p><span>公司对毛利率没有明确指引，而从趋势来看，拼多多毛利率表现一直都不稳定。</span></p>\n<p><span>只是，当前拼多多的爆发式增长要求公司持续补齐商户支持、客服中心等短板，见智认为短期波动并不改长期毛利率面临上行压力的情况。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54474dee9af0b2b4ca4619e48201727e\"></p>\n<p><b><span>4.</span></b><span>本季度经营亏损为-21亿元，优于市场预期的-31亿。</span></p>\n<p><span>而如果观察超预期的原因，除了毛利率改善，行政费用率与研发费用率同样表现较好，而并非因市场最为关心的营销费用改善带动。</span></p>\n<p><span>本季度研发费用12.7亿，增速较上季度放缓，费用率为11.8%，占比也有所下降。</span></p>\n<p><span>而行政费用则非常令人意外，这个季度仅3.5亿，同比仅增7%。另外公司发放的股权激励占收入的比重也在下降。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>见智综合认为，拼多多对内有节约开支的苗头，而对待用户上依然是慷慨大方</span></b><span>。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d1bffee47e43311ff81f86e3cb6103\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6329d8e3a1c72e1f4b1f7496df392597\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源：公司公告，见智整理</span></p>\n<p><b><span>综述：</span></b></p>\n<p><span>见智一直强调，用户获客到顶也意味着拼多多用用户来拉增长的粗放式增长基本告一段落，未来是平台供给侧、精细化运营的较量。</span></p>\n<p><span>巨头在上，拼多多的战役才刚刚开始！</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aa9153f4386a08c2cbc79999550248","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169643713","content_text":"导读：依然是那个直击灵魂的拷问：拼多多是否有能力把“羊毛党”变成“剁手党”？\n美东时间3月11日盘前，拼多多$(PDD)$公布2019年四季度财报。拼多多这个季度经营亏损21亿，好于市场预期的31亿亏损。\n只是这个不是重点！重点是GMV再次令市场失望了：本季度GMV见智测算大约为3706亿，全年GMV在前高后低的情况下勉强过了万亿大关。\n而结合本季度新增买家大涨4900万，而GMV增速加速放缓至113%，背后依然是那个核心拷问：\n新增用户到底是为了羊毛而来，还是真正看中了拼多多的商品、服务，买完一次后会开启持续买买买的模式？\n如果越来越多的新增用户只是为了撸个羊毛、尝尝鲜，而不是买了一次之后持续购买没有太多羊毛可撸的其他商品（也就是常说的交叉销售），那么拼多多走完自己一直擅长的“获客、获客再获客”粗放式增长后，接下来的大考才真正来临：\n拼多多要如何在商户、商品、品类的丰富和层次上打磨，让用户不仅可以买到便宜货，还能在快消、家居、服饰、母婴、家电、3C等，各个品类与商品上找到便宜又优质的货品？\n而这个背后是商户管理、商品与品类供给、物流服务与平台招商等综合供给侧发力的结果。\n巨头在上，拼多多的逆袭之路才刚刚开始！\n同时，对于市场上极端看空拼多多的资金，见智也要提醒一下，要避免不成功便成仁的极端化思维方式：\n一个C端用户的APP，能做到6亿的用户，必然是满足了网民普适性的需求，而不是简单靠一两百亿能够解释的。\n而且互联网各种变现模式中，电商对于用户变现效率远远高于其他模式，极端唱空拼多多是缺少对于商业本质的基本理解。\n见智坚持此前判断，一个6亿用户的APP即使向上突破存在困难，向下同样也已形成了估值的安全边际。\n详细分析前先看一下本季财报核心看点\n拼多多自上季发布失望财报股价暴跌又修复，截止目前仍下跌约7%，且期间表现亦如见智判断，出现下有底、上有顶的区间震荡状态。\n公司股价向上突破遇阻：拼多多尚需向市场证明走出获客顶峰之后，拼多多可以逐渐把“羊毛党”养成持续买买买的“剁手党”。\n而下方的安全边际同样明显：拼多多高达6亿买家共同铸成的电商用户价值安全垫。\n而本季度拼多多的核心看点主要有：\n\n在阿里主场的电商旺季，拼多多的年活买家数能否持续惊艳？\nGMV表现是否持续疲软？\n而这两个数据背后反映的单个买家数消费额又隐含了怎样的用户粘性趋势？\n为实现这些新增买家与GMV数据，拼多多付出多大的营销费用代价？\n\n以下，见智就带着这些疑问，尝试在本季度的财报中寻找答案：\n1. 用户清洗要洗到头了？\n本季度买家数魔力持续：截止本季度末拼多多年度买家数已达到了5.85亿，净增4900万！而此前京东即使新增用户开始放量，也不过2800万。\n不过在绝对值上，上季度净增5300万，本季明显高位回落，而考虑到当前整体网购用户的大盘，6亿用户的分水岭近在眼前。\n随着C端用户获客瓶颈加速到来，拼多多在B端供给侧的问题也会愈加突出。\n\n数据来源：公司公告，见智整理\n本季度，拼多多APP独立月活用户数（打开APP的用户数）本季度末净增5200万，达到了4.82亿，依然在快速增长。\n见智注意到拼多多当下的很多营销玩法会引导用户先行下载APP，强化将微信用户清洗到自有APP上。\n这在一定程度上暗示拼多多清洗用户流量逐步到顶，运营端开始强调用户的迁移，强化拼多多独立APP作为自有流量池的地位。\n\n数据来源：公司公告，见智整理\n2. 新用户继续 “撸羊毛”？拼多多要拼内功了\n拼多多截止本季度末的年度GMV为1.01万亿，算是勉强突破万亿大关，基本实现了拼多多2018年时定下的目标，只是此前二季度数据过好，抬高了市场预期之后，最终先扬后抑，全年勉强达标，市场很难买账。\n趋势上，本季度同比增长113%，持续快速放缓；本季度GMV见智估计为3706亿，同比增长从上季度的111%快速放缓至81%。\n\n数据来源：公司公告，见智整理\n而统筹观察用户数与GMV，背后反映的问题与上季度令市场大跌眼镜的财报如出一辙：\n用补贴拉来的新增买家购买热情不足，导致单个买家贡献的消费额增速明显放缓：该指标的同比增速53%，较上季度的75%，继续快速回落。\n要知道单用户的消费额，由平均客单价和单用户下单次数构成，在已知客单价持续向上的情况下，单用户消费额增速的放缓只能说明新增用户来了之后并不热衷于持续剁手。\n依然是那个直击灵魂的问题：新增用户是不是越来越多单纯奔着百亿补贴过来“撸羊毛”的？\n\n数据来源：公司公告，见智整理\n当用户量逐步走到天花板之后，任何一家电商平台都走到精细化运营和供给侧补位上来。面对高质用户的需求，即使是性价比需求，也需要拼多多在商品的丰富度、层次感、物流等上做出区分度。\n接下来，才是拼真功夫的时刻！\n3.拼多多要节制营销费用？想多了！\n从本季度的数据来看，营销费用（主要线上效果广告、线上线下品宣广告和用户补贴）93亿，绝对值上继续芝麻开花节节高，确实是实打实的“百亿”补贴。\n\n数据来源：公司公告，见智整理\n从占比上来看，营销费用本季度继续落在了营收额的下方，营销费用率为86%，不过这样的数据依然令人咋舌。\n此前还有券商研报认为，拼多多可能逐步克制营销费用的投放，甚至预测公司可能逐步接近盈利！\n这个季度拼多多再次用响亮的数字回应了：拼多多这个公司正如黄铮所说，还是个呱呱坠地的“婴儿”，利润短期还是不用有太多想法。\n在其他重要数据上：\n1.拼多多本季度营业收入108亿人民币，同比增长91%，不及市场预期均值111亿，主要是GMV表现不及市场预期。\n\n2.本季度GMV到广告营销收入的变现率为2.61%， 较去年同期稍有强化。而单季环比大致可以看出，在阿里主场的电商旺季，拼多多变现反而不如此前两个季度。\n\n3.本季度毛利87.6亿，同比增长107%；毛利率81%，显著高于市场预期均值75.6%。\n公司对毛利率没有明确指引，而从趋势来看，拼多多毛利率表现一直都不稳定。\n只是，当前拼多多的爆发式增长要求公司持续补齐商户支持、客服中心等短板，见智认为短期波动并不改长期毛利率面临上行压力的情况。\n\n4.本季度经营亏损为-21亿元，优于市场预期的-31亿。\n而如果观察超预期的原因，除了毛利率改善，行政费用率与研发费用率同样表现较好，而并非因市场最为关心的营销费用改善带动。\n本季度研发费用12.7亿，增速较上季度放缓，费用率为11.8%，占比也有所下降。\n而行政费用则非常令人意外，这个季度仅3.5亿，同比仅增7%。另外公司发放的股权激励占收入的比重也在下降。\n见智综合认为，拼多多对内有节约开支的苗头，而对待用户上依然是慷慨大方。\n\n数据来源：公司公告，见智整理\n综述：\n见智一直强调，用户获客到顶也意味着拼多多用用户来拉增长的粗放式增长基本告一段落，未来是平台供给侧、精细化运营的较量。\n巨头在上，拼多多的战役才刚刚开始！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974076271,"gmtCreate":1600877797293,"gmtModify":1703822843686,"author":{"id":"3545993953108415","authorId":"3545993953108415","name":"霞哥_1262","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac66521f44b59dc071d996aad8533bd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIKI\">$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$</a>是准备退市了吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIKI\">$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$</a>是准备退市了吗","text":"$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$是准备退市了吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974076271","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975484351,"gmtCreate":1600788480373,"gmtModify":1703822505719,"author":{"id":"3545993953108415","authorId":"3545993953108415","name":"霞哥_1262","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac66521f44b59dc071d996aad8533bd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIKI\">$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$</a>难道是假生物，看样子是准备退市","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIKI\">$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$</a>难道是假生物，看样子是准备退市","text":"$Aikido Pharma Inc.(AIKI)$难道是假生物，看样子是准备退市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975484351","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947922460,"gmtCreate":1597165540950,"gmtModify":1704214782270,"author":{"id":"3545993953108415","authorId":"3545993953108415","name":"霞哥_1262","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac66521f44b59dc071d996aad8533bd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BORR\">$Borr Drilling Ltd(BORR)$</a>低调过头","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BORR\">$Borr Drilling Ltd(BORR)$</a>低调过头","text":"$Borr Drilling 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了吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/923478835","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}