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长歌一曲

长歌一曲

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2021-07-09

OCUP来戏了。

2021-05-06

$标普500(.SPX)$美股在进行大跌前的冲刺。

2021-05-02

$道琼斯(.DJI)$全球股市面临中期调整。

2021-04-30

$道琼斯(.DJI)$美股走的真好。

2021-01-11

高通继续征程。

2021-01-11

特斯拉物极必反，万基遗传否极泰来。

2020-12-28

玉米期货启动了一波行情。

2020-12-27

$远藤制药(ENDP)$远藤制药起来了。

2020-12-15

美股再次进入中期调整。

2020-12-14

美股延续中期调整。

2020-12-14

$泡泡玛特(09992)$见你的鬼去吧。

2020-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$准备清仓特斯拉。

2020-10-20

$道琼斯(.DJI)$远藤制药即将大涨。

2020-10-14

机会搞

2020-10-14

好股多等等

2020-10-14

行等待买进

2020-09-22

$晶科能源(JKS)$晶科启动

2020-09-13

$万基遗传(MYGN)$万基遗传是下一个特斯拉 7年后将爆发

2020-06-16

$苹果(AAPL)$苹果不久以后将进入调整

2020-06-16

$3000

特斯拉何时从顶点滑落

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>苹果不久以后将进入调整","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$苹果不久以后将进入调整","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955169478","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955160792,"gmtCreate":1592322246016,"gmtModify":1704198894225,"author":{"id":"3545589505287389","authorId":"3545589505287389","name":"长歌一曲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fcdde92fe4b8431de4804fb5dab801","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545589505287389","authorIdStr":"3545589505287389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$3000","listText":"$3000","text":"$3000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955160792","repostId":"1158895885","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158895885","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1592291472,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158895885?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-16 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉何时从顶点滑落","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158895885","media":"摩羯商业评论","summary":"上周全球经济领域的最大新闻之一，就是特斯拉的股价在6月10日突破1000美元，市值达到1889亿美元，超越了丰田汽车，这被解读成了一个汽车工业历史上的划时代事件。\n实际上，自3月23日美股见底至今，不","content":"<p><span>上周全球经济领域的最大新闻之一，就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的股价在6月10日突破1000美元，市值达到1889亿美元，超越了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TM\">丰田汽车</a>，这被解读成了一个汽车工业历史上的划时代事件。</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，自3月23日美股见底至今，不到3个月内，特斯拉的股价累积涨幅已经达到132%。然而，这三个月来，除了美国严重的疫情之外，特斯拉在美国本土可谓坏消息不断，分析机构找来找去，只能找到一个利好来支撑特斯拉的高市值：位于上海的中国工厂投入生产，并在5月份实现了11095辆的销售业绩。</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，就在6月2日Space X 载人龙飞船成功发射之后，特斯拉还没来得及庆祝，台湾一则特斯拉 Model 3 车祸视频立即刷遍全球，再次给特斯拉最引以为傲的高科技——AutoPilot 功能重重一击，也狠狠地打了说出“傻子才用激光雷达”的马斯克的脸。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93989d21aa4577f8a92901c7cf27708\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p>\n<p><span>车祸发生时，一辆非常醒目的白色厢式货车侧翻在台湾嘉义的高速公路上，视频当中可以看到这辆出事的特斯拉 Model 3，几乎没有任何减速径直撞了上去。车辆自身自动辅助驾驶系统并未有任何减速或刹车措施。</span></p>\n<p><span>面对如同一堵墙样的货柜，标榜世界最领先的自动辅助驾驶系统，AutoPilot竟然不采取任何措施，而且对试图拦下特斯拉的处于运动中的卡车司机也视而不见。</span></p>\n<p><span>这该如何解释？马斯克沉默了。</span></p>\n<p><span>严重的是，这样的恶性事故竟然频繁发生。</span></p>\n<p><span>就在2020年4月，日本东京的一名特斯拉Model X车主，在开启自动驾驶辅助的状态下，由于打盹疏于介入，车辆直接撞上了路旁的人群当中，导致一名44岁的男子当场身亡，而他的家属，将特斯拉告上了法庭。</span></p>\n<p><span>但这些极为重要的负面信息，都被媒体有意无意的给忽视了。</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，当下的局面是：一方面，是马斯克用X火箭以及跟汽车质量无甚关联的种种出格言行，来维持市梦率；另一方面，大量人群开始违背常识地加入“特斯拉教”，&nbsp;把马斯克当猫来吸。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5971f034f3fd7ff56e6248328f90df4d\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"400\"></p>\n<p><span>这难道不可怕吗？</span></p>\n<p><span>其实，在频繁的恶性事故之外，攀至顶点的特斯拉正面临着汽车行业“旧贵族”与“革命党”的双重围剿局面，而这些势力，不仅仅是从市场层面蜂拥而至，而且是打算终结特斯拉的核心科技——自动驾驶与电池的优势，这无异于釜底抽薪。</span></p>\n<p><span>特斯拉的好日子恐怕不会太久了。</span></p>\n<p><b>01、特斯拉的“七宗罪”</b></p>\n<p><span>其实，特斯拉的恶性事故每年都有，而在近两年达到了历史最高峰。</span></p>\n<p><span>除了上述两起发生于近期的，暴露AutoPilot致命缺陷的恶性事故外，还有如下事故：</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年5月3日，一辆特斯拉Model S在美国旧金山的一个私人车库中自燃。所幸没有人员伤亡。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年4月21日晚8时许，上海徐汇区裕德路泰德花苑小区地下车库内，一辆特斯拉轿车突然冒出白烟，进而起火燃烧，火势还殃及了周遭停泊的其他车辆；</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年3月，在佛罗里达，一辆 Model 3 以 110 公里时速侧面撞击了一辆正在穿过马路的白色拖挂卡车。Model 3 同样处于自动驾驶模式，司机以及 Autopilot 系统未做任何回避动作， 50 岁男性司机当场死亡。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年6月17日，洛杉矶一辆特斯拉Model S在路面自燃车底的锂离子电池组熊熊燃烧。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年5 月 8 日，佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡的一辆特斯拉 Model S 发生车祸，车身爆炸起火，事故造成包括司机在内两人死亡，另有一名乘客受重伤送往了医院紧急治疗，三人都是 18 岁左右的青少年。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年3 月 23 日，一名司机开着特斯拉 Model X 在加州山景城高速上发生严重车祸致死，Model X 同样爆炸起火。报道称，这辆车当时处于自动驾驶模式。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年1月26日，在洛杉矶405高速公路上，一辆特斯拉Model S电动汽车追尾了路边停放的消防车。司机告诉消防部门，当时汽车处于Autopilot自动驾驶模式。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1e3be90a9df976eb33568d764abbb4\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"744\"></p>\n<p><span>很多人都还记得，2010年，奥巴马政府是如何动用举国之力打击丰田汽车的：整整十年前的2010年春天，美国车主驾驶丰田旗下高端品牌雷克萨斯ES350丧生，事故发生前司机与911通话里的绝命哀嚎，被全美国媒体持续播放了一个月。这样的结果，就是丰田章男在美国国会举行的听证会上痛哭流涕，之后在全球召回了共计850万辆汽车。</span></p>\n<p><span>对比之下，劣迹斑斑的特斯拉更像是被美国媒体保护了起来。</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，由于恶性事故频出并且一直处于亏损状态和延期交付状态，两年前就有研究机构指出了特斯拉的“七宗罪”：</span></p>\n<p><span>1.Model 3“难产”；</span></p>\n<p><span>2.过分夸大无人驾驶技术；</span></p>\n<p><span>3.悍然上马不成熟的Autopilot，将风险直接推向消费者，间接导致致命事故。</span></p>\n<p><span>4.不顾条件扩产，技术研发成本高企不下；</span></p>\n<p><span>5.竞争对手崛起；</span></p>\n<p><span>6.高管离职潮</span></p>\n<p><span>7.因传输动力部件问题召回12.3万辆Model S，是公司最大规模召回。</span></p>\n<p><span>笔者认为，在这“七宗罪”中，最严重的当属过分夸大无人驾驶技术，以及悍然上马不成熟的Autopilot。</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，自从2005年的第二届 DARPA（美国国防高级研究计划署）挑战赛以来，无人驾驶技术汽车技术一直是硅谷厂商的实验项目。但在2015 年 10 月，特斯拉对Model S进行了无线升级，激活了 Autopilot 系统。显然，Autopilot虽然是朝着无人驾驶方向迈出的令人瞩目的一步，但其并不是真正的无人驾驶技术。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而，一向以科技领先标榜特斯拉品牌的马斯克，为了弥补三元锂电池技术的优势地位消失，就悍然将</span></p>\n<p><span>Autopilot的功能夸大并作为特斯拉新款车的主要卖点，显然，这会对驾驶员产生严重误导。</span></p>\n<p><span>在特斯拉的AutoPilot和“全自动驾驶”方案中，马斯克一直宣称使用视觉为主方案就足够安全。更严重的是，在对Autopilot的视觉计算缺陷视而不见之后，马斯克开始指鹿为马：在2019年4月举办的特斯拉“Autonomy Day”上，马斯克竟然说：</span></p>\n<p><i>“傻子才用激光雷达，现在谁要还是靠激光雷达，那就要完蛋，注定完蛋！激光雷达用了一大堆昂贵的传感器，毫无必要。就好比说，一个麻烦就已经够糟的了，而现在多了一大堆麻烦，这太荒唐了，不信等着瞧！”</i></p>\n<p><span>此话说过一年之后，全世界的特斯拉车主，等着瞧见的，是三起致命车祸。其中，发生于今年6月初的台湾这起车祸，特斯拉径直撞上静止大卡车，把Autopilot的视觉计算缺陷暴露的不能再透明了。</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，激光雷达被长期验证的 “可靠且准确的测距能力”，的确正在受到计算机视觉AI的冲击。然而，特斯拉处于成本控制考虑，完全抛弃了激光雷达，将驾驶员暴露于高风险之中，这不得不让人怀疑特斯拉的企业价值观出了问题。</span></p>\n<p><span>与特斯拉对比，至今未被拿到铁证的丰田，简直太冤枉。其实，不用对比丰田，即使对比UBER，特斯拉也非常明显被美国政府授予了特权。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年3月19日，一辆Uber自动驾驶汽车撞倒一名骑行者并导致后者不治身亡。事故发生时，车辆处于自动驾驶状态，时速 65 公里且没有减速，车上有一名司机。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4887bab8f265369a9881ba56a588b8af\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"704\"></p>\n<p><span>之后，Uber也在第一时间叫停了在亚利桑那州、旧金山、匹兹堡和加拿大多伦多的自动驾驶车辆测试，并发了官方推特进行道歉，宣称会积极配合警方调查。美国国家运输安全委员会为此特别召开听证会。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然，Autopilot暴露出来的致命问题打脸马斯克，也为激光雷达做了最好的广告。</span></p>\n<p><span>在安全性之外，Model 3“难产”和成本居高不下，导致了特斯拉在高管团队在2017-2018年间严重流失。</span></p>\n<p><span>于是，在2018年，做空安然公司而一战成名的大空头吉姆·查诺斯（Jim Chanos）表示，他认为特斯拉股票“毫无价值”。&nbsp;加”大佬吉姆·查诺斯并不是孤军混战，全球大空头们基本上都在前赴后继地做空特斯拉。对冲基金Stanphyl Capital Management 的基金经理Mark Spiegel也表示， 特斯拉烧钱惊人，且面临着激烈的竞争。</span></p>\n<p><span>此外，摩根凯瑞资本管理(Morgan Creek Capital Management) 创始人兼首席信息官Mark Yusko、做空基金公司Rocker Partners的前基金经理David Rocker、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>的前分析师Anton Wahlman都是一致看空特斯拉。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年3月15日，《华尔街日报》也发文宣称，“特斯拉正面临生死时刻”。文章指出，据彭博社一项数据显示，在过去的12个月里，特斯拉平均每分钟即“烧掉了8000美元，换算一下，即每小时烧钱48万美元。按照这一速度，特斯拉将于今年的8月6日耗尽目前的现金储备。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而，特斯拉的这一次严重危机，竟然因为上海超级工厂的建设投产而暂时化解了，马斯克对中国人的效率大为赞赏。美国可以不顾脸面，在全球遏制华为。而特斯拉却因为上海超级工厂而暂时度过了危机。个中缘由，我们不晓得，我们也不敢问。</span></p>\n<p><span>在4月份的新能源车补贴新政出台之后，李想曾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>上发过一句牢骚：</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c10daa7c492bf10b36264f21f28a7a\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"476\"></p>\n<p><span>今年初特斯拉在华设厂之后，它的汽车产品销售价格开始下降。于是有网友戏称，美国股民买特斯拉的股票，赚翻倍；中国股民买特斯拉产业链，赚一半；车主买了特斯拉的汽车，却亏了30%！</span></p>\n<p><span>据中国乘联会数据显示，特斯拉 5 月份在国内的新车销量达到 11095 辆，环比增长 205%。这一数据不仅刷新了特斯拉自己在中国的单月销售记录，在国内同级别的纯电动车品牌中也无人能出其右。</span></p>\n<p><b>02、“围攻”特斯拉的浪潮暗涌</b></p>\n<p><span>其实，即使中国救了特斯拉，但这也只能勉强解决特斯拉的两到三宗罪而已。</span></p>\n<p><span>特斯拉的成功是因为其曾经领先的电池技术，以及用软件工程的思路造车。然而，在电动车和无人驾驶赛道，卷土重来的“旧贵族”和积蓄了多年力量的“革命党”，正在不断向特斯拉逼近。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4f485e7b4e4ece1208bd06722db0c31\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"348\"></p>\n<p><span>6月6日，小鹏汽车 CEO 何小鹏发布了一条微博：三个苦逼，在忆苦思变 ...... 他配了三张图片。第一张是何小鹏与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车 CEO 李斌、理想汽车 CEO 李想的合照；第二张是漫威三大英雄的合影；第三张就是三英战吕布的漫画。</span></p>\n<p><span>显然，吕布指的就是特斯拉。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而，三者也许会在中国市场阻击特斯拉，但还不能给全球化布局的特斯拉形成有力冲击。</span></p>\n<p><span>真正逼近特斯拉的危机，是汽车产业的“旧贵族”与硅谷“革命党”。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年，宝马集团与戴姆勒集团，这两个百年对手终于联手，双方签署合约，将整合各自旗下的出行服务的业务模块，共同迎接新能源汽车时代。此外，奔驰还计划投资科创板动力电池第一股——孚能科技。</span></p>\n<p><span>旧贵族的联姻可不止这一例。2019年8月，福特旗下自动驾驶公司Argo AI宣布获得大众集团投资26亿美元，包括10亿美元投资和价值16亿美元的自动驾驶技术子公司AID，也就是说大众将把旗下奥迪品牌的自动驾驶研发业务，合并到了Argo中。</span></p>\n<p><span>2016年，通用以 10 亿美元收购了自动驾驶初创公司 Cruise Automation ，后者已经是通用无人驾驶技术的核心力量；成立于2016年11月的Argo AI，则 2017年获得福特10亿美元投资，成为了福特在自动驾驶布局中的重要角色。</span></p>\n<p><span>通用和 Cruise 计划投资 1400 万美元扩大其业务，到 2021 年增加 1163 名全职员工，其平均工资达到 11.6 万美元。如果这些计划得到推行，那么 Cruise 可能跃居旧金山 10 大科技企业之一。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年5月，Cruise Automation宣布，获得基金管理公司T.Rowe Price以及一些现有投资者（包括通用、日本软银愿景基金和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMC\">本田汽车</a>）的投资11.5亿美元，使得Cruise Automation估价达190亿美元。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/389d0b37f060829292d1f8daf6ca055c\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p><b><span>（旧金山湾区的自动驾驶<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>风起云涌）</span></b></p>\n<p><span>据《汽车商业评论》的不完全统计，截止到2019年12月23日，2019年获得投资的自动驾驶企业有57家，其中完成融资两次的有4家，分别是Aurora、图森未来、AutoX和Innoviz；融资规模在1亿美元以上有11家。</span></p>\n<p><span>特斯拉往往被称为是自动驾驶领域的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司，因为其能不采购外部设备和技术就不采购，这其中就包括激光雷达。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而，马斯克的这种打造封闭系统的执念，在硅谷汹涌的新造车浪潮之下，正在让特斯拉变得越来越被动，Autopilot暴露出来的致命问题只是一个代表。</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的技术优势正在被迅速赶上。这就好比苹果对自身的研发能力极为自信，从芯片、系统到硬件设计都自己做，但当5G时代来临的时候，就傻眼了，恐怕向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>求助是必选项了。</span></p>\n<p><span>上面提到过，马斯克之所以不顾Autopilot的视觉算法缺陷而拒绝激光雷达，就是在特斯拉的电池技术被追平之后，用不走寻常路的自动驾驶来标榜自身。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而，时至2020年，特斯拉赖以成名的电池技术，也快成明日黄花了。</span></p>\n<p><span>5月份，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>举行了一场关于动力电池的线上发布会，在会上，通用汽车透露，目前通用汽车正在和LG化学合作开发动力电池Ultium，是一种NCMA四元锂电池，通过加入铝，可以将电池中的钴金属含量减少约70%。</span></p>\n<p><span>该新型电池工厂的建设时间将会从2020年年中开始，预计到2022年开始投入生产，到2023年时，工厂的产能可能会达到巅峰。</span></p>\n<p><span>这意味着，通用汽车将生产出性价比超越特斯拉使用的三元锂电池，完美实现功率、成本与稳定性的统一。</span></p>\n<p><span>这无异于将特斯拉釜底抽薪。</span></p>\n<p><b>03、结语</b></p>\n<p><span>2018年8月15日，小鹏汽车品牌发布会上，何小鹏的一句“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>汽车核心是运营不是制造”让媒体大跌眼镜，引得吐槽一片。</span></p>\n<p><span>但从特斯拉和马斯克这个榜样上看，何小鹏说的有错吗？</span></p>\n<p><span>实际上，2020年的特斯拉已经出现了很多“强弩之末”的迹象。中国的超级工厂和市场，可以助其渡过一次生死危机，但却不能帮其根本解决问题。1000美元左右的股价，很可能已经是特斯拉的顶点了。</span></p>","source":"lsy1592291359614","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉何时从顶点滑落</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉何时从顶点滑落\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-16 15:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kjUpZtee7Sn9O9Cza2XDpw><strong>摩羯商业评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上周全球经济领域的最大新闻之一，就是特斯拉的股价在6月10日突破1000美元，市值达到1889亿美元，超越了丰田汽车，这被解读成了一个汽车工业历史上的划时代事件。\n实际上，自3月23日美股见底至今，不到3个月内，特斯拉的股价累积涨幅已经达到132%。然而，这三个月来，除了美国严重的疫情之外，特斯拉在美国本土可谓坏消息不断，分析机构找来找去，只能找到一个利好来支撑特斯拉的高市值：位于上海的中国工厂...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kjUpZtee7Sn9O9Cza2XDpw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kjUpZtee7Sn9O9Cza2XDpw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158895885","content_text":"上周全球经济领域的最大新闻之一，就是特斯拉的股价在6月10日突破1000美元，市值达到1889亿美元，超越了丰田汽车，这被解读成了一个汽车工业历史上的划时代事件。\n实际上，自3月23日美股见底至今，不到3个月内，特斯拉的股价累积涨幅已经达到132%。然而，这三个月来，除了美国严重的疫情之外，特斯拉在美国本土可谓坏消息不断，分析机构找来找去，只能找到一个利好来支撑特斯拉的高市值：位于上海的中国工厂投入生产，并在5月份实现了11095辆的销售业绩。\n实际上，就在6月2日Space X 载人龙飞船成功发射之后，特斯拉还没来得及庆祝，台湾一则特斯拉 Model 3 车祸视频立即刷遍全球，再次给特斯拉最引以为傲的高科技——AutoPilot 功能重重一击，也狠狠地打了说出“傻子才用激光雷达”的马斯克的脸。\n\n车祸发生时，一辆非常醒目的白色厢式货车侧翻在台湾嘉义的高速公路上，视频当中可以看到这辆出事的特斯拉 Model 3，几乎没有任何减速径直撞了上去。车辆自身自动辅助驾驶系统并未有任何减速或刹车措施。\n面对如同一堵墙样的货柜，标榜世界最领先的自动辅助驾驶系统，AutoPilot竟然不采取任何措施，而且对试图拦下特斯拉的处于运动中的卡车司机也视而不见。\n这该如何解释？马斯克沉默了。\n严重的是，这样的恶性事故竟然频繁发生。\n就在2020年4月，日本东京的一名特斯拉Model X车主，在开启自动驾驶辅助的状态下，由于打盹疏于介入，车辆直接撞上了路旁的人群当中，导致一名44岁的男子当场身亡，而他的家属，将特斯拉告上了法庭。\n但这些极为重要的负面信息，都被媒体有意无意的给忽视了。\n实际上，当下的局面是：一方面，是马斯克用X火箭以及跟汽车质量无甚关联的种种出格言行，来维持市梦率；另一方面，大量人群开始违背常识地加入“特斯拉教”， 把马斯克当猫来吸。\n\n这难道不可怕吗？\n其实，在频繁的恶性事故之外，攀至顶点的特斯拉正面临着汽车行业“旧贵族”与“革命党”的双重围剿局面，而这些势力，不仅仅是从市场层面蜂拥而至，而且是打算终结特斯拉的核心科技——自动驾驶与电池的优势，这无异于釜底抽薪。\n特斯拉的好日子恐怕不会太久了。\n01、特斯拉的“七宗罪”\n其实，特斯拉的恶性事故每年都有，而在近两年达到了历史最高峰。\n除了上述两起发生于近期的，暴露AutoPilot致命缺陷的恶性事故外，还有如下事故：\n2019年5月3日，一辆特斯拉Model S在美国旧金山的一个私人车库中自燃。所幸没有人员伤亡。\n2019年4月21日晚8时许，上海徐汇区裕德路泰德花苑小区地下车库内，一辆特斯拉轿车突然冒出白烟，进而起火燃烧，火势还殃及了周遭停泊的其他车辆；\n2019年3月，在佛罗里达，一辆 Model 3 以 110 公里时速侧面撞击了一辆正在穿过马路的白色拖挂卡车。Model 3 同样处于自动驾驶模式，司机以及 Autopilot 系统未做任何回避动作， 50 岁男性司机当场死亡。\n2018年6月17日，洛杉矶一辆特斯拉Model S在路面自燃车底的锂离子电池组熊熊燃烧。\n2018年5 月 8 日，佛罗里达州劳德代尔堡的一辆特斯拉 Model S 发生车祸，车身爆炸起火，事故造成包括司机在内两人死亡，另有一名乘客受重伤送往了医院紧急治疗，三人都是 18 岁左右的青少年。\n2018年3 月 23 日，一名司机开着特斯拉 Model X 在加州山景城高速上发生严重车祸致死，Model X 同样爆炸起火。报道称，这辆车当时处于自动驾驶模式。\n2018年1月26日，在洛杉矶405高速公路上，一辆特斯拉Model S电动汽车追尾了路边停放的消防车。司机告诉消防部门，当时汽车处于Autopilot自动驾驶模式。\n\n很多人都还记得，2010年，奥巴马政府是如何动用举国之力打击丰田汽车的：整整十年前的2010年春天，美国车主驾驶丰田旗下高端品牌雷克萨斯ES350丧生，事故发生前司机与911通话里的绝命哀嚎，被全美国媒体持续播放了一个月。这样的结果，就是丰田章男在美国国会举行的听证会上痛哭流涕，之后在全球召回了共计850万辆汽车。\n对比之下，劣迹斑斑的特斯拉更像是被美国媒体保护了起来。\n实际上，由于恶性事故频出并且一直处于亏损状态和延期交付状态，两年前就有研究机构指出了特斯拉的“七宗罪”：\n1.Model 3“难产”；\n2.过分夸大无人驾驶技术；\n3.悍然上马不成熟的Autopilot，将风险直接推向消费者，间接导致致命事故。\n4.不顾条件扩产，技术研发成本高企不下；\n5.竞争对手崛起；\n6.高管离职潮\n7.因传输动力部件问题召回12.3万辆Model S，是公司最大规模召回。\n笔者认为，在这“七宗罪”中，最严重的当属过分夸大无人驾驶技术，以及悍然上马不成熟的Autopilot。\n实际上，自从2005年的第二届 DARPA（美国国防高级研究计划署）挑战赛以来，无人驾驶技术汽车技术一直是硅谷厂商的实验项目。但在2015 年 10 月，特斯拉对Model S进行了无线升级，激活了 Autopilot 系统。显然，Autopilot虽然是朝着无人驾驶方向迈出的令人瞩目的一步，但其并不是真正的无人驾驶技术。\n然而，一向以科技领先标榜特斯拉品牌的马斯克，为了弥补三元锂电池技术的优势地位消失，就悍然将\nAutopilot的功能夸大并作为特斯拉新款车的主要卖点，显然，这会对驾驶员产生严重误导。\n在特斯拉的AutoPilot和“全自动驾驶”方案中，马斯克一直宣称使用视觉为主方案就足够安全。更严重的是，在对Autopilot的视觉计算缺陷视而不见之后，马斯克开始指鹿为马：在2019年4月举办的特斯拉“Autonomy Day”上，马斯克竟然说：\n“傻子才用激光雷达，现在谁要还是靠激光雷达，那就要完蛋，注定完蛋！激光雷达用了一大堆昂贵的传感器，毫无必要。就好比说，一个麻烦就已经够糟的了，而现在多了一大堆麻烦，这太荒唐了，不信等着瞧！”\n此话说过一年之后，全世界的特斯拉车主，等着瞧见的，是三起致命车祸。其中，发生于今年6月初的台湾这起车祸，特斯拉径直撞上静止大卡车，把Autopilot的视觉计算缺陷暴露的不能再透明了。\n实际上，激光雷达被长期验证的 “可靠且准确的测距能力”，的确正在受到计算机视觉AI的冲击。然而，特斯拉处于成本控制考虑，完全抛弃了激光雷达，将驾驶员暴露于高风险之中，这不得不让人怀疑特斯拉的企业价值观出了问题。\n与特斯拉对比，至今未被拿到铁证的丰田，简直太冤枉。其实，不用对比丰田，即使对比UBER，特斯拉也非常明显被美国政府授予了特权。\n2018年3月19日，一辆Uber自动驾驶汽车撞倒一名骑行者并导致后者不治身亡。事故发生时，车辆处于自动驾驶状态，时速 65 公里且没有减速，车上有一名司机。\n\n之后，Uber也在第一时间叫停了在亚利桑那州、旧金山、匹兹堡和加拿大多伦多的自动驾驶车辆测试，并发了官方推特进行道歉，宣称会积极配合警方调查。美国国家运输安全委员会为此特别召开听证会。\n当然，Autopilot暴露出来的致命问题打脸马斯克，也为激光雷达做了最好的广告。\n在安全性之外，Model 3“难产”和成本居高不下，导致了特斯拉在高管团队在2017-2018年间严重流失。\n于是，在2018年，做空安然公司而一战成名的大空头吉姆·查诺斯（Jim Chanos）表示，他认为特斯拉股票“毫无价值”。 加”大佬吉姆·查诺斯并不是孤军混战，全球大空头们基本上都在前赴后继地做空特斯拉。对冲基金Stanphyl Capital Management 的基金经理Mark Spiegel也表示， 特斯拉烧钱惊人，且面临着激烈的竞争。\n此外，摩根凯瑞资本管理(Morgan Creek Capital Management) 创始人兼首席信息官Mark Yusko、做空基金公司Rocker Partners的前基金经理David Rocker、瑞银的前分析师Anton Wahlman都是一致看空特斯拉。\n2018年3月15日，《华尔街日报》也发文宣称，“特斯拉正面临生死时刻”。文章指出，据彭博社一项数据显示，在过去的12个月里，特斯拉平均每分钟即“烧掉了8000美元，换算一下，即每小时烧钱48万美元。按照这一速度，特斯拉将于今年的8月6日耗尽目前的现金储备。\n然而，特斯拉的这一次严重危机，竟然因为上海超级工厂的建设投产而暂时化解了，马斯克对中国人的效率大为赞赏。美国可以不顾脸面，在全球遏制华为。而特斯拉却因为上海超级工厂而暂时度过了危机。个中缘由，我们不晓得，我们也不敢问。\n在4月份的新能源车补贴新政出台之后，李想曾在微博上发过一句牢骚：\n\n今年初特斯拉在华设厂之后，它的汽车产品销售价格开始下降。于是有网友戏称，美国股民买特斯拉的股票，赚翻倍；中国股民买特斯拉产业链，赚一半；车主买了特斯拉的汽车，却亏了30%！\n据中国乘联会数据显示，特斯拉 5 月份在国内的新车销量达到 11095 辆，环比增长 205%。这一数据不仅刷新了特斯拉自己在中国的单月销售记录，在国内同级别的纯电动车品牌中也无人能出其右。\n02、“围攻”特斯拉的浪潮暗涌\n其实，即使中国救了特斯拉，但这也只能勉强解决特斯拉的两到三宗罪而已。\n特斯拉的成功是因为其曾经领先的电池技术，以及用软件工程的思路造车。然而，在电动车和无人驾驶赛道，卷土重来的“旧贵族”和积蓄了多年力量的“革命党”，正在不断向特斯拉逼近。\n\n6月6日，小鹏汽车 CEO 何小鹏发布了一条微博：三个苦逼，在忆苦思变 ...... 他配了三张图片。第一张是何小鹏与蔚来汽车 CEO 李斌、理想汽车 CEO 李想的合照；第二张是漫威三大英雄的合影；第三张就是三英战吕布的漫画。\n显然，吕布指的就是特斯拉。\n然而，三者也许会在中国市场阻击特斯拉，但还不能给全球化布局的特斯拉形成有力冲击。\n真正逼近特斯拉的危机，是汽车产业的“旧贵族”与硅谷“革命党”。\n2019年，宝马集团与戴姆勒集团，这两个百年对手终于联手，双方签署合约，将整合各自旗下的出行服务的业务模块，共同迎接新能源汽车时代。此外，奔驰还计划投资科创板动力电池第一股——孚能科技。\n旧贵族的联姻可不止这一例。2019年8月，福特旗下自动驾驶公司Argo AI宣布获得大众集团投资26亿美元，包括10亿美元投资和价值16亿美元的自动驾驶技术子公司AID，也就是说大众将把旗下奥迪品牌的自动驾驶研发业务，合并到了Argo中。\n2016年，通用以 10 亿美元收购了自动驾驶初创公司 Cruise Automation ，后者已经是通用无人驾驶技术的核心力量；成立于2016年11月的Argo AI，则 2017年获得福特10亿美元投资，成为了福特在自动驾驶布局中的重要角色。\n通用和 Cruise 计划投资 1400 万美元扩大其业务，到 2021 年增加 1163 名全职员工，其平均工资达到 11.6 万美元。如果这些计划得到推行，那么 Cruise 可能跃居旧金山 10 大科技企业之一。\n2019年5月，Cruise Automation宣布，获得基金管理公司T.Rowe Price以及一些现有投资者（包括通用、日本软银愿景基金和本田汽车）的投资11.5亿美元，使得Cruise Automation估价达190亿美元。\n\n（旧金山湾区的自动驾驶创业公司风起云涌）\n据《汽车商业评论》的不完全统计，截止到2019年12月23日，2019年获得投资的自动驾驶企业有57家，其中完成融资两次的有4家，分别是Aurora、图森未来、AutoX和Innoviz；融资规模在1亿美元以上有11家。\n特斯拉往往被称为是自动驾驶领域的苹果公司，因为其能不采购外部设备和技术就不采购，这其中就包括激光雷达。\n然而，马斯克的这种打造封闭系统的执念，在硅谷汹涌的新造车浪潮之下，正在让特斯拉变得越来越被动，Autopilot暴露出来的致命问题只是一个代表。\n实际上，特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的技术优势正在被迅速赶上。这就好比苹果对自身的研发能力极为自信，从芯片、系统到硬件设计都自己做，但当5G时代来临的时候，就傻眼了，恐怕向高通求助是必选项了。\n上面提到过，马斯克之所以不顾Autopilot的视觉算法缺陷而拒绝激光雷达，就是在特斯拉的电池技术被追平之后，用不走寻常路的自动驾驶来标榜自身。\n然而，时至2020年，特斯拉赖以成名的电池技术，也快成明日黄花了。\n5月份，通用汽车举行了一场关于动力电池的线上发布会，在会上，通用汽车透露，目前通用汽车正在和LG化学合作开发动力电池Ultium，是一种NCMA四元锂电池，通过加入铝，可以将电池中的钴金属含量减少约70%。\n该新型电池工厂的建设时间将会从2020年年中开始，预计到2022年开始投入生产，到2023年时，工厂的产能可能会达到巅峰。\n这意味着，通用汽车将生产出性价比超越特斯拉使用的三元锂电池，完美实现功率、成本与稳定性的统一。\n这无异于将特斯拉釜底抽薪。\n03、结语\n2018年8月15日，小鹏汽车品牌发布会上，何小鹏的一句“智能汽车核心是运营不是制造”让媒体大跌眼镜，引得吐槽一片。\n但从特斯拉和马斯克这个榜样上看，何小鹏说的有错吗？\n实际上，2020年的特斯拉已经出现了很多“强弩之末”的迹象。中国的超级工厂和市场，可以助其渡过一次生死危机，但却不能帮其根本解决问题。1000美元左右的股价，很可能已经是特斯拉的顶点了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":303677116,"gmtCreate":1603144730235,"gmtModify":1703828831136,"author":{"id":"3545589505287389","authorId":"3545589505287389","name":"长歌一曲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fcdde92fe4b8431de4804fb5dab801","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3545589505287389","authorIdStr":"3545589505287389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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