Angus_sky_wa的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Angus_sky_wa

Angus_sky_wa

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IP属地：广东

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3粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2023-02-10

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 转发下专业的解说，意思是说2毛增发2年内卖不掉，公司还可以自行赎回，换算后的实际价值是9毛9，所以目前来说，低了

2023-01-30

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 这崩盘离谱啊

2023-02-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 有人知道这次增发价是多少吗？

2022-10-27

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$跟开心汽车一个起跑线了hhh看看谁先能回1块

2022-10-11

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$1块到现在已经腰斩了[捂脸]

2023-01-30

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ gg今晚没戏，纳指崩，中概跪，特斯拉回调，没有因素能给他打鸡血，等周四周五吧

2023-01-19

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 这操盘套路真的屡试不爽

2023-02-28

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 还有一个月大结局

2023-02-10

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 某种程度这这几年ff比传销还离谱，一入FF深似海，沉没成本越来越高

2023-02-02

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 明晚新高，今晚可以了

2022-05-29

政府调控只是一方面，但放出去的水还是得收回来的

美联储“口风大变”，全球市场大涨，九月会暂停加息吗？

2023-03-03

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 老贾重新掌权，看来是有把握搞出故事了

2023-02-08

$知乎(ZH)$ 感谢谷歌给的上车机会hhh

2023-02-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 把成本做到负[哟哟] 任它东南西北风

2023-02-06

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 减仓应对回调，（大概率）回踩1元后重新出发

2023-01-20

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 小作文开始多了

2023-01-18

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 太牛了，大起大落[捂脸]

2022-10-24

$拼多多(PDD)$抄底抄底！跌出恐慌了

2023-02-13

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 明天开始新旅程

2023-02-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 这是要靠融资变百亿企业吗[捂脸]

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有人知道这次增发价是多少吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622586597","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3539332287622809","authorId":"3539332287622809","name":"飞仔小傻瓜","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"利益输送，如果有一天你看到贾跃亭成为控股股东，就一点也不要惊讶了，因为他回来了。","text":"利益输送，如果有一天你看到贾跃亭成为控股股东，就一点也不要惊讶了，因为他回来了。","html":"利益输送，如果有一天你看到贾跃亭成为控股股东，就一点也不要惊讶了，因为他回来了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622502605,"gmtCreate":1675697496607,"gmtModify":1675697499122,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 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减仓应对回调，（大概率）回踩1元后重新出发","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622502605","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我也希望是这样，但超过1元的任何涨幅都得考量，毕竟都是市场情绪，大结局得3月底4月份才看得到","text":"我也希望是这样，但超过1元的任何涨幅都得考量，毕竟都是市场情绪，大结局得3月底4月份才看得到","html":"我也希望是这样，但超过1元的任何涨幅都得考量，毕竟都是市场情绪，大结局得3月底4月份才看得到"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622831964,"gmtCreate":1675349183959,"gmtModify":1675349185115,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>明晚新高，今晚可以了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>明晚新高，今晚可以了","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 明晚新高，今晚可以了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622831964","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622938884,"gmtCreate":1675093892048,"gmtModify":1675093893515,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>gg今晚没戏，纳指崩，中概跪，特斯拉回调，没有因素能给他打鸡血，等周四周五吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>gg今晚没戏，纳指崩，中概跪，特斯拉回调，没有因素能给他打鸡血，等周四周五吧","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ gg今晚没戏，纳指崩，中概跪，特斯拉回调，没有因素能给他打鸡血，等周四周五吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622938884","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622997841,"gmtCreate":1675090538983,"gmtModify":1675090540116,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>这崩盘离谱啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>这崩盘离谱啊","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 这崩盘离谱啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622997841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3453856345008670","authorId":"3453856345008670","name":"yang47992","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1f50b732f83c63023a044d0d9a5c0e26","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"特斯拉开盘也跌的凶，现在涨回去了。","text":"特斯拉开盘也跌的凶，现在涨回去了。","html":"特斯拉开盘也跌的凶，现在涨回去了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626477096,"gmtCreate":1674799523115,"gmtModify":1674799525235,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老将临危受命","listText":"老将临危受命","text":"老将临危受命","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626477096","repostId":"1128289539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1128289539","pubTimestamp":1674790328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128289539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-27 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"法拉第未来FF任命莫翠天为董事会执行董事，推进实现FF 91 Futurist 量产交付","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128289539","media":"IT之家","summary":"1 月 27 日消息，据 Faraday Future 发布，总部位于美国加州的全球共享智能电动出行生态系统公司 Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (N","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1 月 27 日消息，据 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a> 发布，总部位于美国加州的全球共享<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动出行生态系统公司 Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIE) (&#34;FF&#34;, “Faraday Future” 或 &#34; 公司”) 宣布 FFIE 全球用户生态执行副总裁莫翠天先生被任命为 FFIE 董事会执行董事，该任命自 2023 年 1 月 25 日起生效。同日，董事会还任命莫翠天先生为董事会财务与投资委员会成员。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11ca65f9f47321f28ad2684b5818f9a4\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>同时，根据 FFIE、FF Top Holding LLC（“FF Top”）和 FF Global Partners LLC（“FFGP”）之间的相关协议要点成立的 FFIE 董事选举委员会批准通过了莫翠天先生作为 FF Top 指定人选被提名为 FFIE 2023 年年度股东大会董事会成员，并在获得年度股东大会批准后生效。公司正在选择 2023 年年度股东大会的日期，预计很快将会对外宣布。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe4abcc511cf745604568e7b41baa9e\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>莫翠天先生是 Faraday Future 全球执行副总裁，FF 全球合伙人管理董事会成员和执行委员会成员。莫翠天先生领导 FFIE 全球用户生态团队完成 FFIE 全球品牌传播与营销、O2O 销售、售后服务、用户运营，以及全球生态 O2O 直销体系搭建的战略与执行工作。</p><p>莫翠天先生是全球消费电子、高科技互联网及智能电动车行业拥有超过 15 年高管经验的资深领导者，也是参与了 FF 早期创立的核心管理人员。在此之前，莫翠天先生曾担任乐视控股集团 CMO 及亚太区 CEO，成功帮助乐视控股集团开拓美国、中国大陆、印度、香港地区以及包括其他亚太地区在内的全球市场。</p><p>莫翠天先生还曾任魅族科技有限公司副总裁，负责魅族智能设备中国及全球业务拓展工作。莫翠天先生在全球消费电子、智能设备和互联网行业的全球营销、品牌、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>销售和互联网平台运营方面有着丰富的经验，他曾带领团队在全球市场取得过不错的销售业绩，曾多次在极短时间内创造了印度以及香港市场智能手机和智能电视的销售奇迹。</p><p>莫翠天先生接替叶青先生在公司董事会的席位，这一任命是根据 FFIE 与 FF Top 日前签署的最新股东协议，并遵循经修订的 FFIE、FF Top 和 FFGP 之间相关协议中规定的程序提交年度股东大会投票批准新一届董事提名人选的重要一步。公司感谢叶青先生作为董事会成员期间为公司做出的卓越贡献。根据经修订的股东协议，FF Top 目前有权提名四名指定人员作为董事会董事候选人，但须遵守相关协议中规定的提名程序。莫先生是选举委员会批准的首位董事候选人。根据相关协议，董事会和提名与公司治理委员会将建议股东及代理人对于公司董事选举委员会批准的被提名董事候选人在 2023 年年度股东大会上投赞成票。</p><p>IT之家了解到，FF 公司预计在 2023 年 3 月底开始量产可销售的 FF 91 Futurist 电动车，并在 4 月底之前交付，前提是资金及时到位，并及时获得股东对增加授权股数的批准。公司通过 Product and Technology Generation 2.0 （PT Gen 2.0）项目继续在 FF 91 Futurist 的最终测试和验证方面取得进展。</p><p>FF 最近宣布达成了生产制造第六个里程碑，即完成了车辆装配区的施工和设备安装。这标志着 FF 在 2021 年末制定的七个生产制造里程碑中的六个已经完成（第七个里程碑是 SOP）。这也代表了 FF 在量产 FF 91 Futurist 方面取得的成就。</p><p>今年 1 月，FF 宣布与黄冈市签署战略合作协议，双方将在投资、科技创新、产业转型、区位、政策等方面贡献各自的优势。同时，FF 宣布已与 FF Global 的全资子公司 FF Top 签署了一份经修订和重述的股东协议，新签署的股东协议巩固了 FF Top 作为重要股东的地位，FF Top 将拥有 1:10 的超级投票权，并拥有董事会七席董事的四席提名权。</p></body></html>","source":"ithome","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n法拉第未来FF任命莫翠天为董事会执行董事，推进实现FF 91 Futurist 量产交付\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-27 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://m.ithome.com/html/669635.htm><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1 月 27 日消息，据 Faraday Future 发布，总部位于美国加州的全球共享智能电动出行生态系统公司 Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIE) (\"FF\", “Faraday Future” 或 \" 公司”) 宣布 FFIE 全球用户生态执行副总裁莫翠天先生被任命为 FFIE 董事会执行董事，该任命自 2023 年 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://m.ithome.com/html/669635.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da02b327d14fbb528d302ef2b9995bf1","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday Future"},"source_url":"https://m.ithome.com/html/669635.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128289539","content_text":"1 月 27 日消息，据 Faraday Future 发布，总部位于美国加州的全球共享智能电动出行生态系统公司 Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (NASDAQ: FFIE) (\"FF\", “Faraday Future” 或 \" 公司”) 宣布 FFIE 全球用户生态执行副总裁莫翠天先生被任命为 FFIE 董事会执行董事，该任命自 2023 年 1 月 25 日起生效。同日，董事会还任命莫翠天先生为董事会财务与投资委员会成员。同时，根据 FFIE、FF Top Holding LLC（“FF Top”）和 FF Global Partners LLC（“FFGP”）之间的相关协议要点成立的 FFIE 董事选举委员会批准通过了莫翠天先生作为 FF Top 指定人选被提名为 FFIE 2023 年年度股东大会董事会成员，并在获得年度股东大会批准后生效。公司正在选择 2023 年年度股东大会的日期，预计很快将会对外宣布。莫翠天先生是 Faraday Future 全球执行副总裁，FF 全球合伙人管理董事会成员和执行委员会成员。莫翠天先生领导 FFIE 全球用户生态团队完成 FFIE 全球品牌传播与营销、O2O 销售、售后服务、用户运营，以及全球生态 O2O 直销体系搭建的战略与执行工作。莫翠天先生是全球消费电子、高科技互联网及智能电动车行业拥有超过 15 年高管经验的资深领导者，也是参与了 FF 早期创立的核心管理人员。在此之前，莫翠天先生曾担任乐视控股集团 CMO 及亚太区 CEO，成功帮助乐视控股集团开拓美国、中国大陆、印度、香港地区以及包括其他亚太地区在内的全球市场。莫翠天先生还曾任魅族科技有限公司副总裁，负责魅族智能设备中国及全球业务拓展工作。莫翠天先生在全球消费电子、智能设备和互联网行业的全球营销、品牌、线上线下销售和互联网平台运营方面有着丰富的经验，他曾带领团队在全球市场取得过不错的销售业绩，曾多次在极短时间内创造了印度以及香港市场智能手机和智能电视的销售奇迹。莫翠天先生接替叶青先生在公司董事会的席位，这一任命是根据 FFIE 与 FF Top 日前签署的最新股东协议，并遵循经修订的 FFIE、FF Top 和 FFGP 之间相关协议中规定的程序提交年度股东大会投票批准新一届董事提名人选的重要一步。公司感谢叶青先生作为董事会成员期间为公司做出的卓越贡献。根据经修订的股东协议，FF Top 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某种程度这这几年ff比传销还离谱，一入FF深似海，沉没成本越来越高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625946184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622831964,"gmtCreate":1675349183959,"gmtModify":1675349185115,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>明晚新高，今晚可以了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>明晚新高，今晚可以了","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 明晚新高，今晚可以了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622831964","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614461588,"gmtCreate":1653754413845,"gmtModify":1704858029328,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"政府调控只是一方面，但放出去的水还是得收回来的","listText":"政府调控只是一方面，但放出去的水还是得收回来的","text":"政府调控只是一方面，但放出去的水还是得收回来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614461588","repostId":"1178748658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178748658","pubTimestamp":1653736108,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178748658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-28 19:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储“口风大变”，全球市场大涨，九月会暂停加息吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178748658","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在9月份暂停加息，将使美联储有时间评估政策快速转向的影响。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：韩旭阳</p><p>随着美联储表态的微妙变化，市场目前纷纷押注其将在9月对加息“踩下刹车”。美银认为，一旦美联储真的这么做，市场风险将卷土重来，并且几乎所有风险资产都会大幅走高。</p><p>美联储的最新会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为，货币立场需要迅速转向更中性，“超过中性水平的限制性政策可能变得适合”。多数官员支持未来几次加息50个基点。</p><p>同时，美联储对其最青睐的通胀指标——PCE物价指数的预测明显下降，从2022年底的4.3%下降到2023年的2.5%，到2024年再下降到2.1%。这将意味着，<b>预期中未来三次加息50个基点将标志着当前紧缩周期的结束，并为2022年下半年的卷土重来的重大风险奠定基础。</b></p><p>许多参与者认为，提前大幅加息将为今年晚些时候暂停加息留出空间，以评估政策收紧的影响。交易员们还大幅下调了美联储的加息预期。</p><p><b>这种风向的转变和市场押注助推了股市走高。</b>在本周最后一个交易日，美股终于扭转持续的跌势，标普500指数和纳指分别涨超2%和3%，纳指创5月13日以来最大涨幅，最终连续三日、本周第四日集体收涨。</p><p>美债也纷纷上涨，导致收益率重挫，5年期美债收益率从月中近2.9%的高点下跌至2.724%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec5fcab429b519bde98392524a4b612\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>9月暂停加息已经成为“市场共识”</p><p>当地时间23日周一，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，美联储政策制定者在接下来的两次会议上，每次都加息50个基点后，可能会在9月份暂停加息动作：</p><blockquote>我已经有了一个基本的看法，<b>我认为9月暂停可能是有意义的。</b></blockquote><blockquote>在我们度过夏季之后，我们会考虑我们在政策方面所处的位置，我认为这在很大程度上取决于我们开始看到的实际动态。我的座右铭是观察和适应。</blockquote><p>博斯蒂克重申，他支持鲍威尔有关在6月和7月FOMC会议上加息50个基点的计划，并警告称，若物价意外上涨，可能需要采取更激进的行动。</p><p>分析人士称，<b>这只是第一次关于美联储暂停加息的暗示，预计还会有更多的信号，然后就开始真正按下“暂停键”。鲍威尔向“加息直至联邦基金利率远高于中性水平”的计划举手投降，只是时间问题。</b></p><p>美国银行策略师表示，其长期坚持的9月份“美联储暂停加息”的观点，现在已经成为市场普遍共识。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90add7cccd929efe7b677c35519fabe7\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>美国银行的利率策略师 Ralph Axel 写道：</p><blockquote><b>虽然市场对美联储在2023年中期达到或超过3%的利率水平进行了定价，但我们最近看到美联储与公众的沟通出现了脆弱但显著的变化。</b></blockquote><blockquote>一些美联储官员暗示，鉴于宏观背景的挑战、金融环境的收紧，以及潜在的通胀软化，在今年晚些时候利率水平达到2%时可以选择放缓加息或直接暂停。</blockquote><p>为什么是在9月份？</p><p>5月13日，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特曾表示：</p><blockquote>如果到9月联邦公开市场委员会会议时，关于通胀的月度读数提供了令人信服的证据，表明通胀正在下行，那么加息的步伐可能会放缓，但如果通胀未能缓和，那么可能有必要加快加息步伐。</blockquote><p>她倾向于在6月中旬和7月下旬的两次会议上加息50个基点，并承认了加息75个基点的可能性。</p><p><b>但美银认为，美联储实际上已经向9月份暂停加息打开了大门，或者会将每次会议的加息幅度降至25个基点，</b>甚至可能是每季度加息25个基点。所有的选择都在考虑范围内，美银预计，<b>如果金融环境继续紧张或恶化，且未来公布的经济数据继续不及预期，美联储越来越多的官员将支持在9月暂停加息。</b></p><p><b>美联储对当前政策的风险管理方法是要求尽快实现利率政策的正常化，但同时也寻求避免因利率过高而使经济陷入衰退，防止中性利率曲线自上一轮加息周期以来下滑。美银认为，在9月份暂停加息，将使其有时间评估政策快速转向的影响，同时又不会在对抗通胀方面牺牲太多。</b></p><p>美银表示，最近几周美联储的沟通态度发生了明显的变化，因为金融环境急剧收紧，经济前景恶化，通胀失控的威胁目前似乎已经消退——CPI的潜在峰值早在3月份就达到了顶峰。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4953d1c21e38e9be8aba29e30d973851\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>利率水平会达到多少？</p><p>从历史上来看，美联储在2015年12月首次加息后暂停了一年，因为美股在2016年1月进入了修正区间；美联储在2018年12月的加息后，在美股陷入低迷的情况下再次暂停，并在2019年紧急降息了3次。</p><p>但这一次，美联储在暂停加息之前需要更全面地使政策正常化，因为通胀水平实在是太高了。<b>在他们看来，利率政策正常化再叠加在6月启动的缩表的影响，可能意味着中性利率水平达到1.75%-2%。</b></p><p>美银认为，只要通胀率继续缓慢下降，9月暂停加息是在金融环境收紧的情况下就业增长放缓的综合结果，虽然目前这些因素是否会在9月的FOMC会议上占据主导而引发暂停仍未可知。如果接下来的经济数据仍然疲软，且通胀继续降温，利率市场对9月暂停加息的可能性押注会更高，这意味着整个曲线的利率都会降低。</p><p>尽管9月作为一个市场关注的加息临界点存在着“风险”，但通胀率的居高不下，使得美联储无法在此之前采取任何行动。Axel 写道，6月和7月的两次会议几乎肯定都会加息50个基点，本周的FOMC会议纪要也重申了这一点。在9月份的会议之前，联邦基金利率区间将为1.75-2%，位于美联储对长期经济预测区间的底部。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d55b2137ca4471fdef8cd18aeb6a6949\" tg-width=\"561\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>但美银也认为，实际的中性利率水平作为一个移动目标，是不固定的：市场目前将中性利率定价在2.5%-2.75%之间，略高于目前美联储的中值（2.4%），但低于2016-2019年的稳定状态，即2.75%-3%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4fac88f86188fa0ce7d9068115cb1d\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>美银认为，美联储可以很容易地证明，<b>达到1.75%-2%就意味着货币政策的正常化，</b>但不一定是政策终点：</p><blockquote>这将提供一个机会来评估对就业和通胀的影响，这两方面的数据需要在夏季出现下降才能出现这种情况。虽然随着形势的变化，紧缩政策可能会在稍后恢复，但鉴于目前美联储的年底利率定价为2.60%，而5月份的峰值为2.87%，9月暂停加息可能会导致利率市场的大幅重新定价。</blockquote><p><b>美银预测，如果美联储在9月份暂停加息，那时的政策利率可能会达到1.83%。</b></p><p>更具体地来说，假设美联储在6月和7月都加息50个基点，而在9月完全不加息，美银预计9月的美联储隔夜指数掉期利率（Overnight Index Swap）将收于1.83%；如果美联储在9月选择加息25个基点（这也是美银的基本观点），9月的OIS应会收于2.08%；如果美联储在9月份加息50个基点，该利率会稳定在2.33%。</p><p>Axel 将他的终点利率目标设在1.96%，介于9月暂停加息和加息25个基点之间，他认为有50%的可能性会暂停加息。主要风险是未来两个月的CPI和工资数据强劲，但这种可能性越来越小。</p><p>对利率和市场的影响</p><p>如果美联储承认其中性利率水平的下降，不仅会降低美联储的终点利率目标（terminal rate）上升的可能性，<b>而且还会推翻市场上一种越来越受欢迎的观点——即美联储需要在短期内实现正的实际政策利率，这反过来会推动成长型股票价值飙升。</b></p><p>目前，美联储OIS利率的定价将在2023中期达到2.9%的峰值，然后在2.5%的水平上企稳。市场预测该利率在2022和2023分别上涨6.1%和0.2%。在上述关于加息周期在2%水平左右暂停的背景下，美国银行根据2023年中期的终点利率水平给出了不同的情景预测。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03eb57f9cbc37c12119299a69781c3e9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Axel 认为，这一预测甚至会改变联邦基金利率的远期目标，以产生所示期限利率的假设结果。<b>这三种情况的关键都是终点利率，因为这将会是长期美债收益率——10年期和30年期美债收益率的主要决定因素。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c209bd0262cb327198e16e637e02eb\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美银认为，如果美联储的确在9月暂停加息，将会引发大规模风险的卷土重来，终点利率水平可能会大幅走低。</b>终点利率的下降程度将推动利率曲线的变化。根据终点利率重新定价的不同方式，2年期和10年期美债收益率曲线可能会更陡峭或者更平坦；但无论哪种情况，整个曲线的利率明显较低。这意味着，在出现暂停加息时，<b>5年期美债收益率的长期走势应该成为市场的重点观察指标。</b></p><p>美银还补充了一点，<b>如果美联储真的向加息“投降”，几乎所有风险资产都会大幅走高。</b></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储“口风大变”，全球市场大涨，九月会暂停加息吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-28 19:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660570><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：韩旭阳随着美联储表态的微妙变化，市场目前纷纷押注其将在9月对加息“踩下刹车”。美银认为，一旦美联储真的这么做，市场风险将卷土重来，并且几乎所有风险资产都会大幅走高。美联储的最新会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为，货币立场需要迅速转向更中性，“超过中性水平的限制性政策可能变得适合”。多数官员支持未来几次加息50个基点。同时，美联储对其最青睐的通胀指标——PCE物价指数的预测明显下降，从2022年底的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660570\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3660570","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1178748658","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳随着美联储表态的微妙变化，市场目前纷纷押注其将在9月对加息“踩下刹车”。美银认为，一旦美联储真的这么做，市场风险将卷土重来，并且几乎所有风险资产都会大幅走高。美联储的最新会议纪要显示，政策制定者认为，货币立场需要迅速转向更中性，“超过中性水平的限制性政策可能变得适合”。多数官员支持未来几次加息50个基点。同时，美联储对其最青睐的通胀指标——PCE物价指数的预测明显下降，从2022年底的4.3%下降到2023年的2.5%，到2024年再下降到2.1%。这将意味着，预期中未来三次加息50个基点将标志着当前紧缩周期的结束，并为2022年下半年的卷土重来的重大风险奠定基础。许多参与者认为，提前大幅加息将为今年晚些时候暂停加息留出空间，以评估政策收紧的影响。交易员们还大幅下调了美联储的加息预期。这种风向的转变和市场押注助推了股市走高。在本周最后一个交易日，美股终于扭转持续的跌势，标普500指数和纳指分别涨超2%和3%，纳指创5月13日以来最大涨幅，最终连续三日、本周第四日集体收涨。美债也纷纷上涨，导致收益率重挫，5年期美债收益率从月中近2.9%的高点下跌至2.724%。9月暂停加息已经成为“市场共识”当地时间23日周一，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，美联储政策制定者在接下来的两次会议上，每次都加息50个基点后，可能会在9月份暂停加息动作：我已经有了一个基本的看法，我认为9月暂停可能是有意义的。在我们度过夏季之后，我们会考虑我们在政策方面所处的位置，我认为这在很大程度上取决于我们开始看到的实际动态。我的座右铭是观察和适应。博斯蒂克重申，他支持鲍威尔有关在6月和7月FOMC会议上加息50个基点的计划，并警告称，若物价意外上涨，可能需要采取更激进的行动。分析人士称，这只是第一次关于美联储暂停加息的暗示，预计还会有更多的信号，然后就开始真正按下“暂停键”。鲍威尔向“加息直至联邦基金利率远高于中性水平”的计划举手投降，只是时间问题。美国银行策略师表示，其长期坚持的9月份“美联储暂停加息”的观点，现在已经成为市场普遍共识。美国银行的利率策略师 Ralph Axel 写道：虽然市场对美联储在2023年中期达到或超过3%的利率水平进行了定价，但我们最近看到美联储与公众的沟通出现了脆弱但显著的变化。一些美联储官员暗示，鉴于宏观背景的挑战、金融环境的收紧，以及潜在的通胀软化，在今年晚些时候利率水平达到2%时可以选择放缓加息或直接暂停。为什么是在9月份？5月13日，克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特曾表示：如果到9月联邦公开市场委员会会议时，关于通胀的月度读数提供了令人信服的证据，表明通胀正在下行，那么加息的步伐可能会放缓，但如果通胀未能缓和，那么可能有必要加快加息步伐。她倾向于在6月中旬和7月下旬的两次会议上加息50个基点，并承认了加息75个基点的可能性。但美银认为，美联储实际上已经向9月份暂停加息打开了大门，或者会将每次会议的加息幅度降至25个基点，甚至可能是每季度加息25个基点。所有的选择都在考虑范围内，美银预计，如果金融环境继续紧张或恶化，且未来公布的经济数据继续不及预期，美联储越来越多的官员将支持在9月暂停加息。美联储对当前政策的风险管理方法是要求尽快实现利率政策的正常化，但同时也寻求避免因利率过高而使经济陷入衰退，防止中性利率曲线自上一轮加息周期以来下滑。美银认为，在9月份暂停加息，将使其有时间评估政策快速转向的影响，同时又不会在对抗通胀方面牺牲太多。美银表示，最近几周美联储的沟通态度发生了明显的变化，因为金融环境急剧收紧，经济前景恶化，通胀失控的威胁目前似乎已经消退——CPI的潜在峰值早在3月份就达到了顶峰。利率水平会达到多少？从历史上来看，美联储在2015年12月首次加息后暂停了一年，因为美股在2016年1月进入了修正区间；美联储在2018年12月的加息后，在美股陷入低迷的情况下再次暂停，并在2019年紧急降息了3次。但这一次，美联储在暂停加息之前需要更全面地使政策正常化，因为通胀水平实在是太高了。在他们看来，利率政策正常化再叠加在6月启动的缩表的影响，可能意味着中性利率水平达到1.75%-2%。美银认为，只要通胀率继续缓慢下降，9月暂停加息是在金融环境收紧的情况下就业增长放缓的综合结果，虽然目前这些因素是否会在9月的FOMC会议上占据主导而引发暂停仍未可知。如果接下来的经济数据仍然疲软，且通胀继续降温，利率市场对9月暂停加息的可能性押注会更高，这意味着整个曲线的利率都会降低。尽管9月作为一个市场关注的加息临界点存在着“风险”，但通胀率的居高不下，使得美联储无法在此之前采取任何行动。Axel 写道，6月和7月的两次会议几乎肯定都会加息50个基点，本周的FOMC会议纪要也重申了这一点。在9月份的会议之前，联邦基金利率区间将为1.75-2%，位于美联储对长期经济预测区间的底部。但美银也认为，实际的中性利率水平作为一个移动目标，是不固定的：市场目前将中性利率定价在2.5%-2.75%之间，略高于目前美联储的中值（2.4%），但低于2016-2019年的稳定状态，即2.75%-3%。美银认为，美联储可以很容易地证明，达到1.75%-2%就意味着货币政策的正常化，但不一定是政策终点：这将提供一个机会来评估对就业和通胀的影响，这两方面的数据需要在夏季出现下降才能出现这种情况。虽然随着形势的变化，紧缩政策可能会在稍后恢复，但鉴于目前美联储的年底利率定价为2.60%，而5月份的峰值为2.87%，9月暂停加息可能会导致利率市场的大幅重新定价。美银预测，如果美联储在9月份暂停加息，那时的政策利率可能会达到1.83%。更具体地来说，假设美联储在6月和7月都加息50个基点，而在9月完全不加息，美银预计9月的美联储隔夜指数掉期利率（Overnight Index Swap）将收于1.83%；如果美联储在9月选择加息25个基点（这也是美银的基本观点），9月的OIS应会收于2.08%；如果美联储在9月份加息50个基点，该利率会稳定在2.33%。Axel 将他的终点利率目标设在1.96%，介于9月暂停加息和加息25个基点之间，他认为有50%的可能性会暂停加息。主要风险是未来两个月的CPI和工资数据强劲，但这种可能性越来越小。对利率和市场的影响如果美联储承认其中性利率水平的下降，不仅会降低美联储的终点利率目标（terminal rate）上升的可能性，而且还会推翻市场上一种越来越受欢迎的观点——即美联储需要在短期内实现正的实际政策利率，这反过来会推动成长型股票价值飙升。目前，美联储OIS利率的定价将在2023中期达到2.9%的峰值，然后在2.5%的水平上企稳。市场预测该利率在2022和2023分别上涨6.1%和0.2%。在上述关于加息周期在2%水平左右暂停的背景下，美国银行根据2023年中期的终点利率水平给出了不同的情景预测。Axel 认为，这一预测甚至会改变联邦基金利率的远期目标，以产生所示期限利率的假设结果。这三种情况的关键都是终点利率，因为这将会是长期美债收益率——10年期和30年期美债收益率的主要决定因素。美银认为，如果美联储的确在9月暂停加息，将会引发大规模风险的卷土重来，终点利率水平可能会大幅走低。终点利率的下降程度将推动利率曲线的变化。根据终点利率重新定价的不同方式，2年期和10年期美债收益率曲线可能会更陡峭或者更平坦；但无论哪种情况，整个曲线的利率明显较低。这意味着，在出现暂停加息时，5年期美债收益率的长期走势应该成为市场的重点观察指标。美银还补充了一点，如果美联储真的向加息“投降”，几乎所有风险资产都会大幅走高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627931035,"gmtCreate":1677831101528,"gmtModify":1677831102679,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>老贾重新掌权，看来是有把握搞出故事了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ &nbsp;</a>老贾重新掌权，看来是有把握搞出故事了","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 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减仓应对回调，（大概率）回踩1元后重新出发","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622502605","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我也希望是这样，但超过1元的任何涨幅都得考量，毕竟都是市场情绪，大结局得3月底4月份才看得到","text":"我也希望是这样，但超过1元的任何涨幅都得考量，毕竟都是市场情绪，大结局得3月底4月份才看得到","html":"我也希望是这样，但超过1元的任何涨幅都得考量，毕竟都是市场情绪，大结局得3月底4月份才看得到"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626262209,"gmtCreate":1674227244201,"gmtModify":1674227245150,"author":{"id":"3545025096669904","authorId":"3545025096669904","name":"Angus_sky_wa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af481c59a90e3e21ece94c3d8490ed20","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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