胡海阳懂物流更懂金融的个人主页 - 老虎社区

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

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IP属地：浙江

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胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

12-17

你是看好？

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

12-16

废话

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

08-19

总感觉这个特斯拉的庄实在太狡猾了，稍有不注意。就会归零，不知道有无朋友有啥新的体会。一起分享

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

08-19

比特币是不能玩，我个人也玩不好。不过币股好像种类太多。我看不懂这个所以不碰

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

08-19

怕就怕马斯克搞事情，特斯拉跌死来那叫一个难受啊

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

08-19

我看好，但是这个台积电的市值好像有点高

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

08-19

前段时间，有个博主说，英伟达会像思科一样，还有人说英伟达还会继续生。我觉得一切都会有可能

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

08-06

cboe推出了spx和vix的交易指数？

CBOE：市场动荡里的受益者，也是一台股息印钞机

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

07-12

为啥降息对国债有利好？底层逻辑是？请赐教

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

07-01

快手分红高？

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

06-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉的震荡波动太大，没有功底的投资者，太难把握了

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

06-21

您的意思是英伟达转趋势了？

朱啸虎：年底GPT-5达不到预期，英伟达市值就“完蛋了”

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

06-17

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

06-07

是不是还要回150

@价值投资为王:特斯拉4月全球销量掉这么多？$特斯拉(TSLA)$

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

06-04

没什么意思的，应该空

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

05-31

股价30通常要卖60Call?

@OptionS:$UVXY 20240531 65.0 CALL$ uvxy非常适合sell call，需要注意的是行权价一般要留2.5-3倍的暴涨空间，如果vix在高位，留的空间可以少一点。自选里可以把uvxy和vix放一起看。

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

05-28

你卖这个的理由是？

@FrankAllin:我开仓了$ANF 20240531 197.5 CALL$ ,老样子

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

05-27

卖高买低？

@孙哥888:我开仓了3手$ALB.HK 20241230 110.00 CALL$ ,买入90 leap call 卖出110 call ，形成价差

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

05-24

如何布局到ai概念相关的个股？通过什么方式？

期权大单 | 看涨特斯拉暴赚666%，还有一家的CALL涨超1500%

胡海阳懂物流更懂金融

05-21

$拼多多(PDD)$ 我讨厌多多

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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"前段时间，有个博主说，英伟达会像思科一样，还有人说英伟达还会继续生。我觉得一切都会有可能","listText":"前段时间，有个博主说，英伟达会像思科一样，还有人说英伟达还会继续生。我觉得一切都会有可能","text":"前段时间，有个博主说，英伟达会像思科一样，还有人说英伟达还会继续生。我觉得一切都会有可能","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340090140582168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335550219391248,"gmtCreate":1722957662338,"gmtModify":1722957664382,"author":{"id":"3544057767722503","authorId":"3544057767722503","name":"胡海阳懂物流更懂金融","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed7133d1e50ed6f8254d338e94ff4ee","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544057767722503","authorIdStr":"3544057767722503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"cboe推出了spx和vix的交易指数？","listText":"cboe推出了spx和vix的交易指数？","text":"cboe推出了spx和vix的交易指数？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335550219391248","repostId":"1189178462","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189178462","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1722928445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189178462?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-06 15:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CBOE：市场动荡里的受益者，也是一台股息印钞机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189178462","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"概括 $芝加哥期权交易所$在股市波动时期表现出色，，受益于交易量的增加，尤其是 SPX 期权和 VIX 期货。CBOE的目标是抢占市场份额几天前，Cboe报告了其2024年第二季度财报，收入同比增长10%，超过5.1亿美元。到目前为止，Cboe的全球扩张战略使其成为将美国市场机会引入给国际投资者、出口其交易所技术和数据的关键参与者。CBOE的股息收益率为1.1%。有弹性的商业模式： CBOE 受益于市场高波动性，使其成为市场波动时期的绝佳对冲工具。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>概括</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（CBOE）在股市波动较大的时候表现出色，这受益于交易量的增加，尤其是 SPX 期权和 VIX 期货。他的商业模式在市场动荡中受益。</p></li><li><p>该公司的重点已从并购转向有机增长，这扩展了其全球影响力和数字资产交易的品类。这一战略转变强化了其在关键市场的地位。</p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（CBOE）继续通过股息和回购为股东带来丰厚回报。尽管估值略高，但其增长前景使其成为一项有前途的投资。</p></li></ul><p>周一市场深陷恐慌之中。CBOE波动率指数（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">标普500波动率指数</a> /VIX）一度飙升至40以上，这是自2020年全球疫情爆发以来的最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12c897365b82811fa2100c7b27cb3f66\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>这是一系列不利因素造成的结果，包括美国经济增长乏力、日元套利交易的平仓、地缘政治的不确定性以及科技股估值仍然过高。</p><p>话虽如此，对某些公司来说，更高的波动性反而是一种福音。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a> ( CBOE )就是其中之一，其是“金融领域最好的复合型公司之一”。</p><p>那么，让我们深入探讨细节吧！</p><h2 id=\"id_3756038371\">谁是CBOE？</h2><p>几年前，一位非常富有的基金经理说，拥有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（及其同行）就像拥有一台印钞机。每当有人在其交易所之一进行交易时，股东就会赚钱。</p><p>波动性越高越好。</p><p>CBOE成立于 1937 年，总部位于芝加哥，旗下拥有芝加哥期权交易所和交易所运营商 BATS 全球市场。</p><p>以下是公司最大运营项目的列表（基于其10-K文件）：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>期权交易所：Cboe运营着美国最大的期权交易所，提供广泛的期权交易服务。</p></li><li><p>股票交易所运营商：Cboe是美国第三大股票交易所运营商。</p></li><li><p>Cboe欧洲：公司拥有欧洲按交易价值计算最大的股票交易所之一。</p></li><li><p>Cboe欧洲清算：这是一个提供泛欧股票和衍生品清算服务的清算所。</p></li><li><p>BIDS Holdings：公司在美国拥有领先的大宗交易ATS（另类交易系统），并通过Cboe市场运营商在欧洲、加拿大、澳大利亚和日本提供大宗交易服务。</p></li></ul><p>此外，它还拥有澳大利亚和日本的交易场所、一个数字资产现货市场和期货交易所、一个数字资产清算所以及一个加拿大证券交易所。</p><p>该公司还与标普全球 ( SPGI )、MSCI ( MSCI ) 等公司签订了主要许可协议，并与众多机构、交易平台和专业交易员合作。</p><p>虽然其收入受到重大并购交易的影响，但公平地说，波动性的上升对公司非常有利（见下文）。</p><p>目前，这种商业模式正在全面发挥作用。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c0be1066aec1331c4ea00b91cf48ecb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3291800863\">CBOE的目标是抢占市场份额</h2><p>几天前，Cboe报告了其2024年第二季度财报，收入同比增长10%，超过5.1亿美元。这为调整后每股收益增长21%至2.15美元铺平了道路。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/939948f6a519026fc379c9bc12f99d03\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>如上图所示，现金和现货市场类别的收入同比增长了 15%。与此同时，衍生品部门的有机净收入增长了 11%。</p><p>此外，该公司专有的指数期权和期货产品，尤其是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a> 指数期权（“SPX”）和波动率指数的交易量有所增加。这是通过日均交易量（“ADV”）来衡量的。</p><p>SPX 合约增长 9%。VIX 期货增长 30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/57f6cab7263c3c6c71385eb9e12e7bff\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/></p><p>有趣的是，公司已将重点从并购转向有机增长，利用过去的并购扩展现有能力。</p><p>如前所述，这包括重新将努力集中在数字资产衍生品和技术基础设施上。</p><p>公司认为，通过投资其全球技术平台，可以提升交易体验并扩大市场准入，尤其是在亚太地区，那里对美国市场的需求正在增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c7182a0108b0ac5ad6b60b3d9298d8c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/></p><p>到目前为止，Cboe的全球扩张战略使其成为将美国市场机会引入给国际投资者、出口其交易所技术和数据的关键参与者。</p><p>这些努力包括在香港、泰国和韩国等地区扩展SPX期权，让这些国家的投资者更好地参与美国市场交易。</p><p>此外，该公司的欧洲衍生品平台CEDX成功推出了首笔股票期权交易。该公司还在缩小利差和提高欧洲市场的流动性方面取得了重大进展。</p><p>正如我们在下面看到的，美国股票和指数期权市场比泛欧市场大 17 倍！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0958cbe9b76bfce03ce4209dbc3be6d\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>与此同时，Cboe数据和访问解决方案的表现也不错。</p><p>尽管本季度业绩比较艰难，但该部门收入仍增长了 5%，这得益于“专用核心”等新产品的推出，这些新产品可改善交换访问并降低延迟。</p><p>此外，该领域 40% 的增长来自美国。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b027f4fc36261f61a01c0f8918a821a5\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>这些数字表明了Cboe强劲的增长，且是在波动性非常低的时期实现的。</p><p>这对未来增长和股东分红来说是个好兆头。</p><h2 id=\"id_2443367394\">股东分红与估值</h2><p>在第二季度，Cboe回购了价值9000万美元的股票，使2024年上半年总回购金额达到1.8亿美元。过去十年中，Cboe回购了1.4%的股票。这并不多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b56d25b67d47b2f3c50967d4aee4fdf\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>好消息是，随着公司专注于有机增长而非并购，回购可能会变得更加积极。此外，公司拥有健康的资产负债表，杠杆率为1.1倍。</p><p>此外，公司通过每股0.55美元的季度股息向股东返还了5820万美元。上一次提高股息是在 2023 年 8 月 16 日，当时公司将股息提高了10%。</p><p>Cboe股息的五年复合年增长率为12.1%，支付率仅为26%。CBOE的股息收益率为1.1%。</p><p>总体而言，公司在2024年上半年向股东返还了近3亿美元，相当于调整后收益的65%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d1fc1646bc6cf169b66d5bdb21fe60af\" title=\"图表\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>图表</span></p><p>总体而言，该公司在 2024 年上半年向股东返还了近 3 亿美元，占其调整后收益的 65%。</p><p>换句话说，股息增长和回购的空间很大——尤其是考虑到该公司专注于有机增长。</p><p>其收益率仅为 1.1% 的唯一原因是资本收益抵消了股息增长。过去十年，CBOE的回报率为352%，远高于标普500指数的229%的回报率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/71c5b6c1bc90b41ecba9b0a31997a2ce\" title=\"图表\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>图表</span></p><p>展望未来，预计增长仍将保持较高水平。</p><p>从全年来看，该公司预计数据和访问解决方案业务的有机增长率为 7% 至 10%，总有机收入增长率至少为 6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a04942cc2dcf77cf8501c9eaaf461af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/></p><p>说到预期，使用FactSet数据，CBOE预计其每股收益在2026年前将每年增长6%-9%。实际增长率可能会更高，尤其是如果波动率攀升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5538d48d4c82afd07ef51c6a6f0c674\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\"/></p><p>也就是说，该股票的混合市盈率为 23.6 倍，略高于其长期标准化市盈率 23.0 倍。</p><p>这意味着年回报率为 7-10%，其中包括 1.1% 的股息收益率。</p><p>因此，该公司继续被看好，它在长期内能够击败市场。</p><h2 id=\"id_3137504353\">总结</h2><p>在动荡的市场中，有些公司会蓬勃发展。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（CBOE）就是其中之一。</p><p>尽管近期市场动荡，Cboe的强劲表现凸显了其韧性和增长潜力。</p><p>凭借强劲的收入增长和SPX期权及VIX期货等关键领域令人瞩目的增长，可以说Cboe从并购转向有机增长的战略正在取得成效。</p><p>与此同时，该公司的全球扩张和对加强技术基础设施的重视使其成为连接国际投资者和美国市场的主要参与者。</p><p>Cboe 承诺通过股息和回购为股东带来回报，因此其仍然是实现长期增长和稳定收益的首选。</p><h2 id=\"id_3879105017\">优点与缺点</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>优点：</p></li></ul><p>强劲的增长潜力：CBOE利用市场波动性，推动交易量显著增长，尤其是 SPX 期权和 VIX 期货等产品。</p><p>全球扩张：公司对国际市场和数字资产的战略重点正在扩大其收入基础并开辟新的机遇。</p><p>持续的股东回报：随着回购的增加和股息的持续增长，CBOE继续回报股东。</p><p>有弹性的商业模式： CBOE 受益于市场高波动性，使其成为市场波动时期的绝佳对冲工具。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>缺点：</p></li></ul><p>依赖市场波动：尽管高波动性对 CBOE 有利，但低波动性时期可能会减缓增长并影响收入。然而，其服务的扩张降低了这些风险。</p><p>竞争激烈的行业： CBOE 所处的行业竞争激烈。这需要不断创新才能保持其市场份额。</p><p><em>文章源自 Seeking Alpha《Dividend Printer Cboe - Capitalizing On Market Turmoil》，作者：Leo Nelissen</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCBOE：市场动荡里的受益者，也是一台股息印钞机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-06 15:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>概括</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（CBOE）在股市波动较大的时候表现出色，这受益于交易量的增加，尤其是 SPX 期权和 VIX 期货。他的商业模式在市场动荡中受益。</p></li><li><p>该公司的重点已从并购转向有机增长，这扩展了其全球影响力和数字资产交易的品类。这一战略转变强化了其在关键市场的地位。</p></li><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（CBOE）继续通过股息和回购为股东带来丰厚回报。尽管估值略高，但其增长前景使其成为一项有前途的投资。</p></li></ul><p>周一市场深陷恐慌之中。CBOE波动率指数（ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">标普500波动率指数</a> /VIX）一度飙升至40以上，这是自2020年全球疫情爆发以来的最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12c897365b82811fa2100c7b27cb3f66\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>这是一系列不利因素造成的结果，包括美国经济增长乏力、日元套利交易的平仓、地缘政治的不确定性以及科技股估值仍然过高。</p><p>话虽如此，对某些公司来说，更高的波动性反而是一种福音。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a> ( CBOE )就是其中之一，其是“金融领域最好的复合型公司之一”。</p><p>那么，让我们深入探讨细节吧！</p><h2 id=\"id_3756038371\">谁是CBOE？</h2><p>几年前，一位非常富有的基金经理说，拥有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（及其同行）就像拥有一台印钞机。每当有人在其交易所之一进行交易时，股东就会赚钱。</p><p>波动性越高越好。</p><p>CBOE成立于 1937 年，总部位于芝加哥，旗下拥有芝加哥期权交易所和交易所运营商 BATS 全球市场。</p><p>以下是公司最大运营项目的列表（基于其10-K文件）：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>期权交易所：Cboe运营着美国最大的期权交易所，提供广泛的期权交易服务。</p></li><li><p>股票交易所运营商：Cboe是美国第三大股票交易所运营商。</p></li><li><p>Cboe欧洲：公司拥有欧洲按交易价值计算最大的股票交易所之一。</p></li><li><p>Cboe欧洲清算：这是一个提供泛欧股票和衍生品清算服务的清算所。</p></li><li><p>BIDS Holdings：公司在美国拥有领先的大宗交易ATS（另类交易系统），并通过Cboe市场运营商在欧洲、加拿大、澳大利亚和日本提供大宗交易服务。</p></li></ul><p>此外，它还拥有澳大利亚和日本的交易场所、一个数字资产现货市场和期货交易所、一个数字资产清算所以及一个加拿大证券交易所。</p><p>该公司还与标普全球 ( SPGI )、MSCI ( MSCI ) 等公司签订了主要许可协议，并与众多机构、交易平台和专业交易员合作。</p><p>虽然其收入受到重大并购交易的影响，但公平地说，波动性的上升对公司非常有利（见下文）。</p><p>目前，这种商业模式正在全面发挥作用。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5c0be1066aec1331c4ea00b91cf48ecb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3291800863\">CBOE的目标是抢占市场份额</h2><p>几天前，Cboe报告了其2024年第二季度财报，收入同比增长10%，超过5.1亿美元。这为调整后每股收益增长21%至2.15美元铺平了道路。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/939948f6a519026fc379c9bc12f99d03\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>如上图所示，现金和现货市场类别的收入同比增长了 15%。与此同时，衍生品部门的有机净收入增长了 11%。</p><p>此外，该公司专有的指数期权和期货产品，尤其是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">标普500</a> 指数期权（“SPX”）和波动率指数的交易量有所增加。这是通过日均交易量（“ADV”）来衡量的。</p><p>SPX 合约增长 9%。VIX 期货增长 30%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/57f6cab7263c3c6c71385eb9e12e7bff\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/></p><p>有趣的是，公司已将重点从并购转向有机增长，利用过去的并购扩展现有能力。</p><p>如前所述，这包括重新将努力集中在数字资产衍生品和技术基础设施上。</p><p>公司认为，通过投资其全球技术平台，可以提升交易体验并扩大市场准入，尤其是在亚太地区，那里对美国市场的需求正在增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4c7182a0108b0ac5ad6b60b3d9298d8c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/></p><p>到目前为止，Cboe的全球扩张战略使其成为将美国市场机会引入给国际投资者、出口其交易所技术和数据的关键参与者。</p><p>这些努力包括在香港、泰国和韩国等地区扩展SPX期权，让这些国家的投资者更好地参与美国市场交易。</p><p>此外，该公司的欧洲衍生品平台CEDX成功推出了首笔股票期权交易。该公司还在缩小利差和提高欧洲市场的流动性方面取得了重大进展。</p><p>正如我们在下面看到的，美国股票和指数期权市场比泛欧市场大 17 倍！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0958cbe9b76bfce03ce4209dbc3be6d\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>与此同时，Cboe数据和访问解决方案的表现也不错。</p><p>尽管本季度业绩比较艰难，但该部门收入仍增长了 5%，这得益于“专用核心”等新产品的推出，这些新产品可改善交换访问并降低延迟。</p><p>此外，该领域 40% 的增长来自美国。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b027f4fc36261f61a01c0f8918a821a5\" title=\"图像\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/><span>图像</span></p><p>这些数字表明了Cboe强劲的增长，且是在波动性非常低的时期实现的。</p><p>这对未来增长和股东分红来说是个好兆头。</p><h2 id=\"id_2443367394\">股东分红与估值</h2><p>在第二季度，Cboe回购了价值9000万美元的股票，使2024年上半年总回购金额达到1.8亿美元。过去十年中，Cboe回购了1.4%的股票。这并不多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b56d25b67d47b2f3c50967d4aee4fdf\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p>好消息是，随着公司专注于有机增长而非并购，回购可能会变得更加积极。此外，公司拥有健康的资产负债表，杠杆率为1.1倍。</p><p>此外，公司通过每股0.55美元的季度股息向股东返还了5820万美元。上一次提高股息是在 2023 年 8 月 16 日，当时公司将股息提高了10%。</p><p>Cboe股息的五年复合年增长率为12.1%，支付率仅为26%。CBOE的股息收益率为1.1%。</p><p>总体而言，公司在2024年上半年向股东返还了近3亿美元，相当于调整后收益的65%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d1fc1646bc6cf169b66d5bdb21fe60af\" title=\"图表\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>图表</span></p><p>总体而言，该公司在 2024 年上半年向股东返还了近 3 亿美元，占其调整后收益的 65%。</p><p>换句话说，股息增长和回购的空间很大——尤其是考虑到该公司专注于有机增长。</p><p>其收益率仅为 1.1% 的唯一原因是资本收益抵消了股息增长。过去十年，CBOE的回报率为352%，远高于标普500指数的229%的回报率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/71c5b6c1bc90b41ecba9b0a31997a2ce\" title=\"图表\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>图表</span></p><p>展望未来，预计增长仍将保持较高水平。</p><p>从全年来看，该公司预计数据和访问解决方案业务的有机增长率为 7% 至 10%，总有机收入增长率至少为 6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9a04942cc2dcf77cf8501c9eaaf461af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/></p><p>说到预期，使用FactSet数据，CBOE预计其每股收益在2026年前将每年增长6%-9%。实际增长率可能会更高，尤其是如果波动率攀升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c5538d48d4c82afd07ef51c6a6f0c674\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\"/></p><p>也就是说，该股票的混合市盈率为 23.6 倍，略高于其长期标准化市盈率 23.0 倍。</p><p>这意味着年回报率为 7-10%，其中包括 1.1% 的股息收益率。</p><p>因此，该公司继续被看好，它在长期内能够击败市场。</p><h2 id=\"id_3137504353\">总结</h2><p>在动荡的市场中，有些公司会蓬勃发展。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CBOE\">芝加哥期权交易所</a>（CBOE）就是其中之一。</p><p>尽管近期市场动荡，Cboe的强劲表现凸显了其韧性和增长潜力。</p><p>凭借强劲的收入增长和SPX期权及VIX期货等关键领域令人瞩目的增长，可以说Cboe从并购转向有机增长的战略正在取得成效。</p><p>与此同时，该公司的全球扩张和对加强技术基础设施的重视使其成为连接国际投资者和美国市场的主要参与者。</p><p>Cboe 承诺通过股息和回购为股东带来回报，因此其仍然是实现长期增长和稳定收益的首选。</p><h2 id=\"id_3879105017\">优点与缺点</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>优点：</p></li></ul><p>强劲的增长潜力：CBOE利用市场波动性，推动交易量显著增长，尤其是 SPX 期权和 VIX 期货等产品。</p><p>全球扩张：公司对国际市场和数字资产的战略重点正在扩大其收入基础并开辟新的机遇。</p><p>持续的股东回报：随着回购的增加和股息的持续增长，CBOE继续回报股东。</p><p>有弹性的商业模式： CBOE 受益于市场高波动性，使其成为市场波动时期的绝佳对冲工具。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>缺点：</p></li></ul><p>依赖市场波动：尽管高波动性对 CBOE 有利，但低波动性时期可能会减缓增长并影响收入。然而，其服务的扩张降低了这些风险。</p><p>竞争激烈的行业： CBOE 所处的行业竞争激烈。这需要不断创新才能保持其市场份额。</p><p><em>文章源自 Seeking Alpha《Dividend Printer Cboe - Capitalizing On Market Turmoil》，作者：Leo Nelissen</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/45b63ee9843e0473f199a711ed26c6d4","relate_stocks":{"CBOE":"芝加哥期权交易所"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189178462","content_text":"概括芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）在股市波动较大的时候表现出色，这受益于交易量的增加，尤其是 SPX 期权和 VIX 期货。他的商业模式在市场动荡中受益。该公司的重点已从并购转向有机增长，这扩展了其全球影响力和数字资产交易的品类。这一战略转变强化了其在关键市场的地位。芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）继续通过股息和回购为股东带来丰厚回报。尽管估值略高，但其增长前景使其成为一项有前途的投资。周一市场深陷恐慌之中。CBOE波动率指数（ 标普500波动率指数 /VIX）一度飙升至40以上，这是自2020年全球疫情爆发以来的最高水平。图像这是一系列不利因素造成的结果，包括美国经济增长乏力、日元套利交易的平仓、地缘政治的不确定性以及科技股估值仍然过高。话虽如此，对某些公司来说，更高的波动性反而是一种福音。 芝加哥期权交易所 ( CBOE )就是其中之一，其是“金融领域最好的复合型公司之一”。那么，让我们深入探讨细节吧！谁是CBOE？几年前，一位非常富有的基金经理说，拥有芝加哥期权交易所（及其同行）就像拥有一台印钞机。每当有人在其交易所之一进行交易时，股东就会赚钱。波动性越高越好。CBOE成立于 1937 年，总部位于芝加哥，旗下拥有芝加哥期权交易所和交易所运营商 BATS 全球市场。以下是公司最大运营项目的列表（基于其10-K文件）：期权交易所：Cboe运营着美国最大的期权交易所，提供广泛的期权交易服务。股票交易所运营商：Cboe是美国第三大股票交易所运营商。Cboe欧洲：公司拥有欧洲按交易价值计算最大的股票交易所之一。Cboe欧洲清算：这是一个提供泛欧股票和衍生品清算服务的清算所。BIDS Holdings：公司在美国拥有领先的大宗交易ATS（另类交易系统），并通过Cboe市场运营商在欧洲、加拿大、澳大利亚和日本提供大宗交易服务。此外，它还拥有澳大利亚和日本的交易场所、一个数字资产现货市场和期货交易所、一个数字资产清算所以及一个加拿大证券交易所。该公司还与标普全球 ( SPGI )、MSCI ( MSCI ) 等公司签订了主要许可协议，并与众多机构、交易平台和专业交易员合作。虽然其收入受到重大并购交易的影响，但公平地说，波动性的上升对公司非常有利（见下文）。目前，这种商业模式正在全面发挥作用。CBOE的目标是抢占市场份额几天前，Cboe报告了其2024年第二季度财报，收入同比增长10%，超过5.1亿美元。这为调整后每股收益增长21%至2.15美元铺平了道路。图像如上图所示，现金和现货市场类别的收入同比增长了 15%。与此同时，衍生品部门的有机净收入增长了 11%。此外，该公司专有的指数期权和期货产品，尤其是 标普500 指数期权（“SPX”）和波动率指数的交易量有所增加。这是通过日均交易量（“ADV”）来衡量的。SPX 合约增长 9%。VIX 期货增长 30%。有趣的是，公司已将重点从并购转向有机增长，利用过去的并购扩展现有能力。如前所述，这包括重新将努力集中在数字资产衍生品和技术基础设施上。公司认为，通过投资其全球技术平台，可以提升交易体验并扩大市场准入，尤其是在亚太地区，那里对美国市场的需求正在增长。到目前为止，Cboe的全球扩张战略使其成为将美国市场机会引入给国际投资者、出口其交易所技术和数据的关键参与者。这些努力包括在香港、泰国和韩国等地区扩展SPX期权，让这些国家的投资者更好地参与美国市场交易。此外，该公司的欧洲衍生品平台CEDX成功推出了首笔股票期权交易。该公司还在缩小利差和提高欧洲市场的流动性方面取得了重大进展。正如我们在下面看到的，美国股票和指数期权市场比泛欧市场大 17 倍！图像与此同时，Cboe数据和访问解决方案的表现也不错。尽管本季度业绩比较艰难，但该部门收入仍增长了 5%，这得益于“专用核心”等新产品的推出，这些新产品可改善交换访问并降低延迟。此外，该领域 40% 的增长来自美国。图像这些数字表明了Cboe强劲的增长，且是在波动性非常低的时期实现的。这对未来增长和股东分红来说是个好兆头。股东分红与估值在第二季度，Cboe回购了价值9000万美元的股票，使2024年上半年总回购金额达到1.8亿美元。过去十年中，Cboe回购了1.4%的股票。这并不多。好消息是，随着公司专注于有机增长而非并购，回购可能会变得更加积极。此外，公司拥有健康的资产负债表，杠杆率为1.1倍。此外，公司通过每股0.55美元的季度股息向股东返还了5820万美元。上一次提高股息是在 2023 年 8 月 16 日，当时公司将股息提高了10%。Cboe股息的五年复合年增长率为12.1%，支付率仅为26%。CBOE的股息收益率为1.1%。总体而言，公司在2024年上半年向股东返还了近3亿美元，相当于调整后收益的65%。图表总体而言，该公司在 2024 年上半年向股东返还了近 3 亿美元，占其调整后收益的 65%。换句话说，股息增长和回购的空间很大——尤其是考虑到该公司专注于有机增长。其收益率仅为 1.1% 的唯一原因是资本收益抵消了股息增长。过去十年，CBOE的回报率为352%，远高于标普500指数的229%的回报率。图表展望未来，预计增长仍将保持较高水平。从全年来看，该公司预计数据和访问解决方案业务的有机增长率为 7% 至 10%，总有机收入增长率至少为 6%。说到预期，使用FactSet数据，CBOE预计其每股收益在2026年前将每年增长6%-9%。实际增长率可能会更高，尤其是如果波动率攀升。也就是说，该股票的混合市盈率为 23.6 倍，略高于其长期标准化市盈率 23.0 倍。这意味着年回报率为 7-10%，其中包括 1.1% 的股息收益率。因此，该公司继续被看好，它在长期内能够击败市场。总结在动荡的市场中，有些公司会蓬勃发展。 芝加哥期权交易所（CBOE）就是其中之一。尽管近期市场动荡，Cboe的强劲表现凸显了其韧性和增长潜力。凭借强劲的收入增长和SPX期权及VIX期货等关键领域令人瞩目的增长，可以说Cboe从并购转向有机增长的战略正在取得成效。与此同时，该公司的全球扩张和对加强技术基础设施的重视使其成为连接国际投资者和美国市场的主要参与者。Cboe 承诺通过股息和回购为股东带来回报，因此其仍然是实现长期增长和稳定收益的首选。优点与缺点优点：强劲的增长潜力：CBOE利用市场波动性，推动交易量显著增长，尤其是 SPX 期权和 VIX 期货等产品。全球扩张：公司对国际市场和数字资产的战略重点正在扩大其收入基础并开辟新的机遇。持续的股东回报：随着回购的增加和股息的持续增长，CBOE继续回报股东。有弹性的商业模式： CBOE 受益于市场高波动性，使其成为市场波动时期的绝佳对冲工具。缺点：依赖市场波动：尽管高波动性对 CBOE 有利，但低波动性时期可能会减缓增长并影响收入。然而，其服务的扩张降低了这些风险。竞争激烈的行业： CBOE 所处的行业竞争激烈。这需要不断创新才能保持其市场份额。文章源自 Seeking Alpha《Dividend Printer Cboe - Capitalizing On Market Turmoil》，作者：Leo 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15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"朱啸虎：年底GPT-5达不到预期，英伟达市值就“完蛋了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695188","media":"新浪科技","summary":"大部分被AI取代的人，是因为上班摸鱼太多了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>　　文丨周文猛</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　在中国创投行业，“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　近日，金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示，“当前，中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中，而在以前，周期的单位是2~3年。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎指出，在周期变长的情况下，生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域，仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言，都要追求性价比，“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　此外，他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判，预计到今年年底，如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布，或者能力未达到有效提升，英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点，在保持原意的基础上略有修改。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　<strong>“中国现在一些AI创新，要比美国领先”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　新浪科技：您不投AI大模型公司，但会投AI应用，现在有开始看项目吗？最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱，软件企业都很惨，但AI投资To B又快于To C，你怎么看？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎：第一，中国企业和中国消费者一样，都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了，全世界3000万，中国有700万，而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力，工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　第二，实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨，大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入，比作两三亿美金的收入，中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜，国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　我认为，AI以后可能还是有机会，因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级，这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件，可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点，就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比，这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　新浪科技：你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗？之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎：开会的，但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会，现在我们还是，但更多的是我们和美国人讲，我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新，其实要比美国领先的，第一是数据多，第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确，在很细分领域可能是60%左右，最好可能80%多，剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的，但是需要人工补齐这块，中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　<strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期，英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　新浪科技：你怎么看英伟达的？他也是AI的底层，现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎：就看Scaling Law（规模法则）有没有效果，如果Scaling Law无效了，它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底，OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0，如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去，还见不到（GPT）智能能力提升，那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　当然，黄教主（黄仁勋）确实很会销售，他搞了一个主权AI，想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售，今年的股价应该是能撑得住的，但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来，大家怀疑，就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　新浪科技：前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence，也可以理解为端侧AI，你怎么看这个事情？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎：苹果的发布会非常有意思，它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　第一，最重要的是用户体验，而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器，你说有啥技术？其实没啥技术，但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题，今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了，但他不给GPT导用户，说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI，只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了，很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　第二，苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态，每年给苹果支付100多亿美金，今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的，如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了，然后再给苹果支付100亿美金，iPhone肯定也会用。所以，最终还是入口为王，而且苹果自己也在做大模型，如果一直没有GPT-5.0，苹果大模型性能上来后，可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　<strong>“大部分被AI取代的人，是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　新浪科技：如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议，你会说什么？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎：你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值，让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”，这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　新浪科技：还会有这样的产品吗？</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎：很多，你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业，在这个行业里面生根，真正懂你的客户，知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的，或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　新浪科技：对个人有什么建议呢？我们正在经历长周期，而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑，它什么都能做！</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　朱啸虎：AI肯定不可能100%取代人类，我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了，在很多细分领域，很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高，你的表现不要比下面一半的人差，就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">　　大部分人为什么被取代，完全是因为上班摸鱼太多，没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎：年底GPT-5达不到预期，英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎：年底GPT-5达不到预期，英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛　　在中国创投行业，“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。　　近日，金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示，“当前，中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中，而在以前，周期的单位是2~3年。”　　朱啸虎指出，在周期变长的情况下，生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域，仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言，都要追求性价比，“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。　　此外，他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛　　在中国创投行业，“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。　　近日，金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示，“当前，中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中，而在以前，周期的单位是2~3年。”　　朱啸虎指出，在周期变长的情况下，生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域，仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言，都要追求性价比，“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。　　此外，他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判，预计到今年年底，如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布，或者能力未达到有效提升，英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。　　以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点，在保持原意的基础上略有修改。　　“中国现在一些AI创新，要比美国领先”　　新浪科技：您不投AI大模型公司，但会投AI应用，现在有开始看项目吗？最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱，软件企业都很惨，但AI投资To B又快于To C，你怎么看？　　朱啸虎：第一，中国企业和中国消费者一样，都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了，全世界3000万，中国有700万，而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力，工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。　　第二，实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨，大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入，比作两三亿美金的收入，中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜，国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 　　我认为，AI以后可能还是有机会，因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级，这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件，可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点，就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比，这个时候客户很愿意付钱。　　新浪科技：你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗？之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了？　　朱啸虎：开会的，但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会，现在我们还是，但更多的是我们和美国人讲，我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新，其实要比美国领先的，第一是数据多，第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确，在很细分领域可能是60%左右，最好可能80%多，剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的，但是需要人工补齐这块，中国肯定是有优势的。　　“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期，英伟达市值就完蛋了”　　新浪科技：你怎么看英伟达的？他也是AI的底层，现在市值已经全球第一了。　　朱啸虎：就看Scaling Law（规模法则）有没有效果，如果Scaling Law无效了，它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底，OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0，如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去，还见不到（GPT）智能能力提升，那英伟达他就完蛋了。　　当然，黄教主（黄仁勋）确实很会销售，他搞了一个主权AI，想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售，今年的股价应该是能撑得住的，但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来，大家怀疑，就开始危险了。　　新浪科技：前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence，也可以理解为端侧AI，你怎么看这个事情？　　朱啸虎：苹果的发布会非常有意思，它至少说明两个问题。　　第一，最重要的是用户体验，而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器，你说有啥技术？其实没啥技术，但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题，今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了，但他不给GPT导用户，说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI，只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了，很和谐。　　第二，苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态，每年给苹果支付100多亿美金，今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的，如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了，然后再给苹果支付100亿美金，iPhone肯定也会用。所以，最终还是入口为王，而且苹果自己也在做大模型，如果一直没有GPT-5.0，苹果大模型性能上来后，可能就用自己的GPT了。　　“大部分被AI取代的人，是因为上班摸鱼太多了”　　新浪科技：如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议，你会说什么？　　朱啸虎：你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值，让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”，这样的极致效果。　　新浪科技：还会有这样的产品吗？　　朱啸虎：很多，你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业，在这个行业里面生根，真正懂你的客户，知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的，或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。　　新浪科技：对个人有什么建议呢？我们正在经历长周期，而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑，它什么都能做！　　朱啸虎：AI肯定不可能100%取代人类，我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了，在很多细分领域，很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高，你的表现不要比下面一半的人差，就可以了。　　大部分人为什么被取代，完全是因为上班摸鱼太多，没有用智商。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317826892030048,"gmtCreate":1718633100423,"gmtModify":1718633454149,"author":{"id":"3544057767722503","authorId":"3544057767722503","name":"胡海阳懂物流更懂金融","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed7133d1e50ed6f8254d338e94ff4ee","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544057767722503","authorIdStr":"3544057767722503"},"themes":[],"title":"竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王","htmlText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8wKyXE\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8wKyXE\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情：竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f22c491ee8ae08f0d36ded0795f1fe33"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317826892030048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314324163432672,"gmtCreate":1717770238138,"gmtModify":1717770240023,"author":{"id":"3544057767722503","authorId":"3544057767722503","name":"胡海阳懂物流更懂金融","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed7133d1e50ed6f8254d338e94ff4ee","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544057767722503","authorIdStr":"3544057767722503"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是不是还要回150","listText":"是不是还要回150","text":"是不是还要回150","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314324163432672","repostId":"314311924121680","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":314311924121680,"gmtCreate":1717768779570,"gmtModify":1717769114242,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉4月全球销量掉这么多？<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ANF 20240531 197.5 CALL\">$ANF 20240531 197.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,老样子","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ANF 20240531 197.5 CALL\">$ANF 20240531 197.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,老样子","text":"我开仓了$ANF 20240531 197.5 CALL$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ALB.HK 20241230 110.00 CALL\">$ALB.HK 20241230 110.00 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,买入90 leap call 卖出110 call ，形成价差","listText":"我开仓了3手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ALB.HK 20241230 110.00 CALL\">$ALB.HK 20241230 110.00 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,买入90 leap call 卖出110 call ，形成价差","text":"我开仓了3手$ALB.HK 20241230 110.00 CALL$ ,买入90 leap call 卖出110 call 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14:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权大单 | 看涨特斯拉暴赚666%，还有一家的CALL涨超1500%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115663675","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二期权市场成交30,082,730张合约，其中看涨合约占比59%，看跌合约占比41%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3 id=\"id_880334941\">市场概览</h3><p>周二，美股三大指数在清淡的交易日里集体收涨，标普500指数、纳指携手刷新收盘历史新高。当日美股期权市场成交30,082,730张合约，其中看涨合约（CALL）占比59%，看跌合约（PUT）占比41%。</p><h3 id=\"id_680536718\">期权成交观察：特斯拉，666！</h3><p>期权成交量榜单上，特斯拉跃升至第二位，超过纳指100ETF。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3fd03427d64f219849035ff3320546\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p>行情方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周二大涨6.66%。一方面，特斯拉高管称计划于2026年开始向客户交付Semi卡车。为此，公司将在内华达州建立新工厂。另一方面，小鹏汽车公布了超预期的第一季度财报，也推送新能源汽车板块集体上涨。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e01030aff49c848995d290ee3c9268\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>期权方面，这一夜拉升带来的效果更是惊人。<strong>有三份CALL的成交价涨幅在600%以上！其中，本周到期的，行权价190美元的看涨单涨幅达666.67%。这实在是太六六六了。</strong></p><p><em>【点击交易特斯拉期权： <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20240524 180.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020240524%20180.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20240524 180.0 CALL$</a></em> 】</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110df128cbbd04f5e5fad76cb2a7b1ce\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"550\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_2697663217\">异动观察：还有比666更猛的</h3><p>先别羡慕上述特斯拉CALL的持有者，因为有比他们更夸张的收益。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLR\">第一太阳能</a>，周二收涨8.03%，本月涨幅超20%，本季度涨幅近26%。瑞银此前发布报告称，<strong>第一太阳能是人工智能(AI)驱动的电力需求增长的“一个被忽视的直接受益者”，重申对该股的“买入”评级，并将目标价从252美元上调至270美元。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a14d614b6a8a95a0b20a9d2e7145d4ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>期权方面，有三份周内到期CALL的涨幅超过1500%！相形之下，特斯拉的666都黯然失色了。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7651e3a4550bb46391042ea71ef7170a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"547\"/></p><p>受益于AI概念的不止科技巨头，从互联网，到能源，再到公用事业等多个行业，都在翘首期待AI带来的跃升机会，也都有可能爆发惊人行情。此刻，您打算动手布局了吗？</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权大单 | 看涨特斯拉暴赚666%，还有一家的CALL涨超1500%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权大单 | 看涨特斯拉暴赚666%，还有一家的CALL涨超1500%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-05-22 14:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><h3 id=\"id_880334941\">市场概览</h3><p>周二，美股三大指数在清淡的交易日里集体收涨，标普500指数、纳指携手刷新收盘历史新高。当日美股期权市场成交30,082,730张合约，其中看涨合约（CALL）占比59%，看跌合约（PUT）占比41%。</p><h3 id=\"id_680536718\">期权成交观察：特斯拉，666！</h3><p>期权成交量榜单上，特斯拉跃升至第二位，超过纳指100ETF。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc3fd03427d64f219849035ff3320546\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p>行情方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>周二大涨6.66%。一方面，特斯拉高管称计划于2026年开始向客户交付Semi卡车。为此，公司将在内华达州建立新工厂。另一方面，小鹏汽车公布了超预期的第一季度财报，也推送新能源汽车板块集体上涨。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e01030aff49c848995d290ee3c9268\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>期权方面，这一夜拉升带来的效果更是惊人。<strong>有三份CALL的成交价涨幅在600%以上！其中，本周到期的，行权价190美元的看涨单涨幅达666.67%。这实在是太六六六了。</strong></p><p><em>【点击交易特斯拉期权： <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20240524 180.0 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020240524%20180.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20240524 180.0 CALL$</a></em> 】</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110df128cbbd04f5e5fad76cb2a7b1ce\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"550\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_2697663217\">异动观察：还有比666更猛的</h3><p>先别羡慕上述特斯拉CALL的持有者，因为有比他们更夸张的收益。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FSLR\">第一太阳能</a>，周二收涨8.03%，本月涨幅超20%，本季度涨幅近26%。瑞银此前发布报告称，<strong>第一太阳能是人工智能(AI)驱动的电力需求增长的“一个被忽视的直接受益者”，重申对该股的“买入”评级，并将目标价从252美元上调至270美元。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a14d614b6a8a95a0b20a9d2e7145d4ed\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>期权方面，有三份周内到期CALL的涨幅超过1500%！相形之下，特斯拉的666都黯然失色了。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7651e3a4550bb46391042ea71ef7170a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"547\"/></p><p>受益于AI概念的不止科技巨头，从互联网，到能源，再到公用事业等多个行业，都在翘首期待AI带来的跃升机会，也都有可能爆发惊人行情。此刻，您打算动手布局了吗？</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9749762c5ee11a52030b4c66a89c8026","relate_stocks":{"FSLR":"第一太阳能","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115663675","content_text":"市场概览周二，美股三大指数在清淡的交易日里集体收涨，标普500指数、纳指携手刷新收盘历史新高。当日美股期权市场成交30,082,730张合约，其中看涨合约（CALL）占比59%，看跌合约（PUT）占比41%。期权成交观察：特斯拉，666！期权成交量榜单上，特斯拉跃升至第二位，超过纳指100ETF。行情方面，特斯拉周二大涨6.66%。一方面，特斯拉高管称计划于2026年开始向客户交付Semi卡车。为此，公司将在内华达州建立新工厂。另一方面，小鹏汽车公布了超预期的第一季度财报，也推送新能源汽车板块集体上涨。期权方面，这一夜拉升带来的效果更是惊人。有三份CALL的成交价涨幅在600%以上！其中，本周到期的，行权价190美元的看涨单涨幅达666.67%。这实在是太六六六了。【点击交易特斯拉期权： $TSLA 20240524 180.0 CALL$ 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