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胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
07-12
为啥降息对国债有利好?底层逻辑是?请赐教
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
07-01
快手分红高?
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
06-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉的震荡波动太大,没有功底的投资者,太难把握了
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
06-21
您的意思是英伟达转趋势了?
朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
06-17
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
查看详情:
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
快来参与实盘竞猜活动,寻找你心中的收益王者,竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
06-07
是不是还要回150
@价值投资为王:特斯拉4月全球销量掉这么多?
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
06-04
没什么意思的,应该空
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
05-31
股价30通常要卖60Call?
@OptionS:
$UVXY 20240531 65.0 CALL$
uvxy非常适合sell call,需要注意的是行权价一般要留2.5-3倍的暴涨空间,如果vix在高位,留的空间可以少一点。自选里可以把uvxy和vix放一起看。
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
05-28
你卖这个的理由是?
@FrankAllin:我开仓了
$ANF 20240531 197.5 CALL$
,老样子
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
05-27
卖高买低?
@孙哥888:我开仓了3手
$ALB.HK 20241230 110.00 CALL$
,买入90 leap call 卖出110 call ,形成价差
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
05-24
如何布局到ai概念相关的个股?通过什么方式?
抱歉,原内容已删除
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
05-21
$拼多多(PDD)$
我讨厌多多
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
05-17
我只能说呵呵,机构有时候对,有时候错。说真的我是不想去研究
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
05-01
请问您买入的时候再哪一天?财报前?
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
04-30
不看跌了?
@不爱吃水果:我开仓了
$TLT 20240501 88.0 PUT$
,通过卖put加仓一些长期国债,明天到期看会不会接盘
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
04-26
这么中意?
@OptionS:我开仓了
$PDD 20240531 100.0 PUT$
,杠杆卖出年化40%+,常年sp pdd,个人top pick。
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
04-26
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
查看详情:
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
快来参与竞猜赢虎币活动,寻找你心中的实盘收益王,邀请好友最多可得250枚虎币 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户
竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
04-24
请问您是如何分析到的,期权市场暗示本周有10%波动?期权的哪方面的数据能看出来?
期权女巫 | Tesla本周可能因业绩剧烈波动,利用宽跨式策略来减轻风险
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
04-23
做多止盈?
@阳光彩虹派:我平仓了
$NVDA 20240426 825.0 CALL$
,三战三胜,开心
胡海阳懂物流更懂金融
04-06
打压预期?什么预期?最初的预期是啥?
昨夜今晨 | 强劲非农打压降息预期,三大股指依旧集体走高
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朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做!</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。 “中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先” 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看? 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了? 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。 “年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了” 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情? 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。 “大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了” 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么? 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗? 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做! 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317826892030048,"gmtCreate":1718633100423,"gmtModify":1718633454149,"author":{"id":"3544057767722503","authorId":"3544057767722503","name":"胡海阳懂物流更懂金融","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed7133d1e50ed6f8254d338e94ff4ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王","htmlText":"查看详情:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8wKyXE\">竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动,寻找你心中的收益王者,竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8wKyXE\">竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动,寻找你心中的收益王者,竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情:竞猜赢虎币 ,寻找实盘收益王 快来参与实盘竞猜活动,寻找你心中的收益王者,竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 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此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f22c491ee8ae08f0d36ded0795f1fe33"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299360504471624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298441573310776,"gmtCreate":1713894241331,"gmtModify":1713894243219,"author":{"id":"3544057767722503","authorId":"3544057767722503","name":"胡海阳懂物流更懂金融","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed7133d1e50ed6f8254d338e94ff4ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请问您是如何分析到的,期权市场暗示本周有10%波动?期权的哪方面的数据能看出来?","listText":"请问您是如何分析到的,期权市场暗示本周有10%波动?期权的哪方面的数据能看出来?","text":"请问您是如何分析到的,期权市场暗示本周有10%波动?期权的哪方面的数据能看出来?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298441573310776","repostId":"1169159793","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169159793","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1713858503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169159793?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-23 15:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | Tesla本周可能因业绩剧烈波动,利用宽跨式策略来减轻风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169159793","media":"期权女巫","summary":"期权市场暗示着本周末可能会有大幅波动,可能上涨或下跌约10%。比亚迪 中国电池制造商比亚迪可能不为美国消费者所熟知,但在进入汽车业务后,该公司在全球汽车制造商的雷达上绝对引人注目。中国目前是电动汽车的最大市场,比亚迪在那里领先于特斯拉。因此,我认为近期环境对特斯拉仍将具有挑战性,这一观点得到了最近宣布的裁员和生产放缓的进一步强化。这涉及购买较长日期的跨式,并卖出较近期日期的跨式。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>我是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> 产品和公司的铁杆粉丝,但我们目前并不持有该公司的股票。</p><p>自11月4日达到历史最高水平以来,Tesla股票是“七巨头”中表现最差的成员。它的表现比该组中表现最佳的英伟达差得多,低于220%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26df659862292a167f30e5bbe10b950d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>有趣的是,Tesla在此期间也取得了一些显着的成就,我们将在周二收盘后公布业绩时了解更多情况。</p><p>期权市场暗示着本周末可能会有大幅波动,可能上涨或下跌约10%。</p><p>在美国制造商中,Tesla因为摒弃了传统的经销商模式,在定价上具有出色的灵活性,他们会动态调整价格。该公司已经多次降低价格,但有能力即时平衡供需,这有助于匹配生产和销售,但以利润率下降为代价。虽然我继续相信Tesla比福特汽车和通用汽车等公司,或者像Lucid和Rivian这样的美国电动车制造商更有能力在制造电动车方面盈利,但比亚迪将在未来一段时间内限制在中国的单位销售和利润率,并可能很快在美国和欧洲也是如此。</p><h2 id=\"id_1207181110\">以下是投资者关注的内容以及交易方式</h2><p>因此,我认为短期内Tesla的环境将面对挑战,这一观点得到了最近宣布的裁员和生产放缓消息的强化。在这种背景下,我倾向于使用一种中立的期权交易,并且假设我刚刚概述的大多数负面因素是众所周知的。这可以将股价的波动限制在本周末的10%之内,正如期权市场目前所暗示的那样。</p><p>为了利用这一点,我会使用<strong>“宽跨式交易”</strong>。<strong>这涉及购买较长日期的跨式,并卖出较近期日期的跨式</strong>。具体来说,我正在<strong>考虑卖出4月26日到期的133/162.5跨式,以帮助支付购买8月到期的130/165跨式的费用。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64d2de2f696d99ca7d145026def27aa6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1164\" tg-height=\"1413\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa3d866b76268d8e362f36f3e34bbfd8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1167\" tg-height=\"1461\"/></p><p><em>本文编译自CNBC,原文标题:Tesla could be volatile this week on earnings. Using options to mitigate the risk</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | Tesla本周可能因业绩剧烈波动,利用宽跨式策略来减轻风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | Tesla本周可能因业绩剧烈波动,利用宽跨式策略来减轻风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-23 15:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>我是 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> 产品和公司的铁杆粉丝,但我们目前并不持有该公司的股票。</p><p>自11月4日达到历史最高水平以来,Tesla股票是“七巨头”中表现最差的成员。它的表现比该组中表现最佳的英伟达差得多,低于220%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26df659862292a167f30e5bbe10b950d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>有趣的是,Tesla在此期间也取得了一些显着的成就,我们将在周二收盘后公布业绩时了解更多情况。</p><p>期权市场暗示着本周末可能会有大幅波动,可能上涨或下跌约10%。</p><p>在美国制造商中,Tesla因为摒弃了传统的经销商模式,在定价上具有出色的灵活性,他们会动态调整价格。该公司已经多次降低价格,但有能力即时平衡供需,这有助于匹配生产和销售,但以利润率下降为代价。虽然我继续相信Tesla比福特汽车和通用汽车等公司,或者像Lucid和Rivian这样的美国电动车制造商更有能力在制造电动车方面盈利,但比亚迪将在未来一段时间内限制在中国的单位销售和利润率,并可能很快在美国和欧洲也是如此。</p><h2 id=\"id_1207181110\">以下是投资者关注的内容以及交易方式</h2><p>因此,我认为短期内Tesla的环境将面对挑战,这一观点得到了最近宣布的裁员和生产放缓消息的强化。在这种背景下,我倾向于使用一种中立的期权交易,并且假设我刚刚概述的大多数负面因素是众所周知的。这可以将股价的波动限制在本周末的10%之内,正如期权市场目前所暗示的那样。</p><p>为了利用这一点,我会使用<strong>“宽跨式交易”</strong>。<strong>这涉及购买较长日期的跨式,并卖出较近期日期的跨式</strong>。具体来说,我正在<strong>考虑卖出4月26日到期的133/162.5跨式,以帮助支付购买8月到期的130/165跨式的费用。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64d2de2f696d99ca7d145026def27aa6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1164\" tg-height=\"1413\"/></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa3d866b76268d8e362f36f3e34bbfd8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1167\" tg-height=\"1461\"/></p><p><em>本文编译自CNBC,原文标题:Tesla could be volatile this week on earnings. Using options to mitigate the risk</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169159793","content_text":"我是 Tesla 产品和公司的铁杆粉丝,但我们目前并不持有该公司的股票。自11月4日达到历史最高水平以来,Tesla股票是“七巨头”中表现最差的成员。它的表现比该组中表现最佳的英伟达差得多,低于220%。有趣的是,Tesla在此期间也取得了一些显着的成就,我们将在周二收盘后公布业绩时了解更多情况。期权市场暗示着本周末可能会有大幅波动,可能上涨或下跌约10%。在美国制造商中,Tesla因为摒弃了传统的经销商模式,在定价上具有出色的灵活性,他们会动态调整价格。该公司已经多次降低价格,但有能力即时平衡供需,这有助于匹配生产和销售,但以利润率下降为代价。虽然我继续相信Tesla比福特汽车和通用汽车等公司,或者像Lucid和Rivian这样的美国电动车制造商更有能力在制造电动车方面盈利,但比亚迪将在未来一段时间内限制在中国的单位销售和利润率,并可能很快在美国和欧洲也是如此。以下是投资者关注的内容以及交易方式因此,我认为短期内Tesla的环境将面对挑战,这一观点得到了最近宣布的裁员和生产放缓消息的强化。在这种背景下,我倾向于使用一种中立的期权交易,并且假设我刚刚概述的大多数负面因素是众所周知的。这可以将股价的波动限制在本周末的10%之内,正如期权市场目前所暗示的那样。为了利用这一点,我会使用“宽跨式交易”。这涉及购买较长日期的跨式,并卖出较近期日期的跨式。具体来说,我正在考虑卖出4月26日到期的133/162.5跨式,以帮助支付购买8月到期的130/165跨式的费用。本文编译自CNBC,原文标题:Tesla could be volatile this week on earnings. Using options to mitigate the risk","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298396785484064,"gmtCreate":1713883277410,"gmtModify":1713883279132,"author":{"id":"3544057767722503","authorId":"3544057767722503","name":"胡海阳懂物流更懂金融","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed7133d1e50ed6f8254d338e94ff4ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"做多止盈?","listText":"做多止盈?","text":"做多止盈?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298396785484064","repostId":"298388985221352","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":298388985221352,"gmtCreate":1713881307667,"gmtModify":1720614681776,"author":{"id":"3456261161734053","authorId":"3456261161734053","name":"阳光彩虹派","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70809e386292f8094adb6dc4f13c2a58","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240426 825.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20240426 825.0 CALL$ </a>,三战三胜,开心","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240426 825.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20240426 825.0 CALL$ </a>,三战三胜,开心","text":"我平仓了$NVDA 20240426 825.0 CALL$ ,三战三胜,开心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298388985221352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":292380581126280,"gmtCreate":1712407988140,"gmtModify":1712408916933,"author":{"id":"3544057767722503","authorId":"3544057767722503","name":"胡海阳懂物流更懂金融","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ed7133d1e50ed6f8254d338e94ff4ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"打压预期?什么预期?最初的预期是啥?","listText":"打压预期?什么预期?最初的预期是啥?","text":"打压预期?什么预期?最初的预期是啥?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292380581126280","repostId":"1113811154","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113811154","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1712358836,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113811154?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-06 07:13","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨 | 强劲非农打压降息预期,三大股指依旧集体走高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113811154","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"非农数据公布后,互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期,美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次,将6月降息概率减少至54.5%,互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。马斯克此前表示,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车将使用自动驾驶技术自动接送乘客。据报道,美国司法部与遇难者家属律师的会面定于4月9日下午进行。此前,美国司法部表示,计划于4月24日与波音737 MAX客机坠毁事故遇难者家属会面。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>①马斯克:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车; ②马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划; ③热门中概股涨跌不一,纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.18%; ④美国3月份非农就业人数增加30.3万人。</p></blockquote><p><strong>4月6日讯 </strong>美东时间周五,美股三大指数集体收涨,此前美国3月就业增长大超预期,暗示美联储今年降息的时间可能延后。</p><p>美国劳工局周五公布的数据显示,美国3月份非农就业人数增加30.3万人,远高于经济学家们预测的20万人,也高于前值27万人,创下去年5月以来的最大增幅。</p><p>非农数据公布后,互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期,美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次,将6月降息概率减少至54.5%,互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。</p><p>BOK Financial分析师Steve Wyett评论称:“很难从3月份的就业报告中找出任何问题。唯一可能对今天的报告感到失望的是那些期待美联储降息的人。我们仍然预计美联储的下一步行动将是降息,但目前几乎没有任何紧迫感。”</p><p>独立顾问联盟首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli认为,对投资者来说,消费者支出和企业利润要比美联储多久降息以及降息多少次更重要。换句话说,如果经济和企业基本面良好,那么2024年降息4次、3次或2次,对美股都同样有利。</p><p>当前状况让投资者左右为难,一方面希望经济走强以支持企业盈利进一步增长,另一方面又希望美联储赶快降息,但二者不可得兼。</p><p>此外,美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼当天声称,现在还不是降低利率的时候,如果通胀进展停滞甚至逆转,我们仍愿意进一步加息。此外,达拉斯联储主席洛根也声称,现在考虑降息还为时过早,目前美联储还没有降息的紧迫感,有时间继续等待,看看即将发布的数据,看看金融状况如何演变。</p><p>分析称,虽然鲍曼和洛根的基调更为鹰派,但并未像此前一天的卡什卡利一样冲击到市场,再加上美联储持续释放鹰派信号,投资者对此有所“脱敏”。</p><p><strong>市场动态</strong></p><p>截至收盘,道指涨307.06点,涨幅为0.80%,报38904.04点;纳指涨199.44点,涨幅为1.24%,报16248.52点;标普500指数涨57.13点,涨幅为1.11%,报5204.34点。</p><p>标普500指数的11个板块全线收高,电信服务板块收涨1.6%表现最佳,工业板块与科技板块各涨1.43%与1.38%。能源板块涨1.09%。可选消费、原材料、医疗保健及金融板块涨幅亦接近1%。</p><p>美股行业ETF收盘全线上涨,网络股指数ETF涨1.78%,半导体ETF涨1.25%,全球科技股ETF涨1.19%,科技行业ETF涨1.15%,能源业ETF涨1.07%,金融业ETF涨0.95%,医疗业ETF、全球航空业ETF、生物科技指数ETF及可选消费ETF亦各上涨至少0.5%。</p><p><strong>热门股表现</strong></p><p>大型科技股多数上涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>、Meta涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>涨超1%,特斯拉跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌超2%。</p><p>贵金属板块涨幅居前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">科尔黛伦矿业</a>涨超12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAAS\">泛美白银</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽曼矿业</a>涨超5%,金田涨超4%。</p><p>美国医疗器械制造商Shockwave Medical股价上涨2%,此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生</a>公司同意以125亿美元收购该公司。</p><p>热门中概股涨跌不一,纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.18%,本周累涨0.37%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">富途控股</a>涨超1%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超1%。</p><p><strong>宏观新闻</strong></p><p><strong>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425454895\" title=\"美联储高官“比鹰”:理事鲍曼称如果通胀居高不下,可能需要进一步加息\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">美联储高官“比鹰”:理事鲍曼称如果通胀居高不下,可能需要进一步加息</a></strong></p><p>近几日美联储多位高级官员密集讲话,其中不乏“鹰声大作”的表态。继周四明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称美联储今年甚至有可能不降息之后,拥有FOMC永久表决权的美联储理事鲍曼周五表示,有可能需要提高利率才能控制住通胀。</p><p><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425111485\" title=\"美国就业数据强劲,市场降息预期崩了,9月可能才迎来“首降”\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">美国就业数据强劲,市场降息预期崩了,9月可能才迎来“首降”</a></strong></p><p>周五,受意外持续强劲的美国就业市场影响,市场的降息预期进一步回撤,年初以来美债市场的疲软走势延续。<strong>从市场定价来看,交易员们甚至对9月前不再定价一次完整的降息,也即美联储可能要到9月才会开启今年的首次降息。</strong></p><p><strong>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425562080\" title=\"美国财长耶伦再提反对中美“脱钩”\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">美国财长耶伦再提反对中美“脱钩”</a></strong></p><p>耶伦在广州参加了中国美国商会主办的活动,并对美国在华企业发表了讲话,再次强调反对中美“脱钩”。</p><p><strong>公司消息</strong></p><p><strong>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425751414\" title=\"马斯克:特斯拉将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">马斯克:特斯拉将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车</a></strong></p><p>周五盘后,马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称,特斯拉计划8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车(robotaxi)。马斯克此前表示,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车将使用自动驾驶技术自动接送乘客。</p><p><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425999735\" title=\"马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划</a></strong></p><p>据路透报道,特斯拉放弃了推出低成本汽车计划,随后马斯克在社媒平台X上发文称,“路透在撒谎”。马斯克第一次提出2.5万美元车型是在2020年9月的一个活动上。他当时说,特斯拉进行的一系列创新使他有信心公司在三年左右时间内可以制造出一款这种价位的电动车。三年多过去了,特斯拉的产品阵容中依然缺乏价格更低车型,事实证明这一品牌的汽车价格较高。</p><p><strong>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425562246\" title=\"一季度产量远超销量,特斯拉大幅打折清理库存\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">一季度产量远超销量,特斯拉大幅打折清理库存</a></strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>公司正在大幅下调最畅销车型的价格,以清理其该公司历史上最大的库存。</p><p>该公司正在对库存的Model Y运动型多用途车进行降价销售,后轮驱动版本的价格比定制价格低4,600美元。长续航和高性能版的Model Y售价至少打折5,000美元。</p><p><strong>4、美国司法部将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>空难遇难者家属律师会面</strong></p><p>2018和2019年,两架波音737 MAX 8客机分别发生空难,总计346人遇难。据路透社4月4日报道,美国司法部下周将与两起坠机事故的遇难者家属律师会面。目前,美司法部正在进行相关调查,以决定是否继续推进对波音的刑事诉讼。据报道,美国司法部与遇难者家属律师的会面定于4月9日下午进行。此前,美国司法部表示,计划于4月24日与波音737 MAX客机坠毁事故遇难者家属会面。</p><p><strong>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425556649\" title=\"台积电:除位于震幅较大地区部分生产线外 台湾晶圆厂内设备已大致复原\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">台积电:除位于震幅较大地区部分生产线外 台湾晶圆厂内设备已大致复原</a></strong></p><p>周五台积电最新回应媒体震后工厂恢复情况。截至今日,除了位于震幅较大地区的部分生产线,需要较长的时间调整校正以恢复自动化生产外,台湾晶圆厂内的设备已大致复原。台积电表示,公司全年业绩展望仍将维持一月法说会展望,全年营收增长预计低至20%的中段(low-to-mid twenties)百分比。</p><p><strong>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425656794\" title=\"Spire Global携手英伟达利用人工智能帮助改善天气预报\" target=\"_blank\">Spire Global携手英伟达利用人工智能帮助改善天气预报</a></strong></p><p>多年来,人工智能(AI)一直在天气预报建模中发挥着重要作用。生成式人工智能的最新突破,使天气预报最终变得更加准确成为可能。这就是天基数据和分析提供商Spire Global最近宣布与AI宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>达成合作伙伴关系的目的。Spire Global首席执行官兼联合创始人Peter Platzer表示:“深度学习、神经网络和生成式人工智能所做的是,它们已经将权力从那些能够访问超级计算机的人转移到那些能够访问超级数据的人身上。”</p><p>多年来,人工智能(AI)一直在天气预报建模中发挥着重要作用。生成式人工智能的最新突破,使天气预报最终变得更加准确成为可能。这就是天基数据和分析提供商Spire Global最近宣布与AI宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>达成合作伙伴关系的目的。Spire Global首席执行官兼联合创始人Peter Platzer表示:“深度学习、神经网络和生成式人工智能所做的是,它们已经将权力从那些能够访问超级计算机的人转移到那些能够访问超级数据的人身上。</p><p><strong>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425672405\" title=\"在线问诊公司Teladoc公司CEO离职,公司市值三年缩水95%\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">在线问诊公司Teladoc公司CEO离职,公司市值三年缩水95%</a></strong></p><p>在线问诊公司Teladoc Health周五宣布首席执行官Jason Gorevic突然离职,他已经立即辞去公司CEO一职。该公司董事会已暂时任命首席财务官Mala Murthy为Gorevic的继任者,并聘请了一家猎头公司来遴选长期稳定继任者。Teladoc股价基本持平,但今年迄今其股票下跌了约34%。对比2021年2月创造的294.54美元历史最高点,目前该股已下跌了约95%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨 | 强劲非农打压降息预期,三大股指依旧集体走高</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨 | 强劲非农打压降息预期,三大股指依旧集体走高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-06 07:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>①马斯克:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车; ②马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划; ③热门中概股涨跌不一,纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.18%; ④美国3月份非农就业人数增加30.3万人。</p></blockquote><p><strong>4月6日讯 </strong>美东时间周五,美股三大指数集体收涨,此前美国3月就业增长大超预期,暗示美联储今年降息的时间可能延后。</p><p>美国劳工局周五公布的数据显示,美国3月份非农就业人数增加30.3万人,远高于经济学家们预测的20万人,也高于前值27万人,创下去年5月以来的最大增幅。</p><p>非农数据公布后,互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期,美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次,将6月降息概率减少至54.5%,互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。</p><p>BOK Financial分析师Steve Wyett评论称:“很难从3月份的就业报告中找出任何问题。唯一可能对今天的报告感到失望的是那些期待美联储降息的人。我们仍然预计美联储的下一步行动将是降息,但目前几乎没有任何紧迫感。”</p><p>独立顾问联盟首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli认为,对投资者来说,消费者支出和企业利润要比美联储多久降息以及降息多少次更重要。换句话说,如果经济和企业基本面良好,那么2024年降息4次、3次或2次,对美股都同样有利。</p><p>当前状况让投资者左右为难,一方面希望经济走强以支持企业盈利进一步增长,另一方面又希望美联储赶快降息,但二者不可得兼。</p><p>此外,美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼当天声称,现在还不是降低利率的时候,如果通胀进展停滞甚至逆转,我们仍愿意进一步加息。此外,达拉斯联储主席洛根也声称,现在考虑降息还为时过早,目前美联储还没有降息的紧迫感,有时间继续等待,看看即将发布的数据,看看金融状况如何演变。</p><p>分析称,虽然鲍曼和洛根的基调更为鹰派,但并未像此前一天的卡什卡利一样冲击到市场,再加上美联储持续释放鹰派信号,投资者对此有所“脱敏”。</p><p><strong>市场动态</strong></p><p>截至收盘,道指涨307.06点,涨幅为0.80%,报38904.04点;纳指涨199.44点,涨幅为1.24%,报16248.52点;标普500指数涨57.13点,涨幅为1.11%,报5204.34点。</p><p>标普500指数的11个板块全线收高,电信服务板块收涨1.6%表现最佳,工业板块与科技板块各涨1.43%与1.38%。能源板块涨1.09%。可选消费、原材料、医疗保健及金融板块涨幅亦接近1%。</p><p>美股行业ETF收盘全线上涨,网络股指数ETF涨1.78%,半导体ETF涨1.25%,全球科技股ETF涨1.19%,科技行业ETF涨1.15%,能源业ETF涨1.07%,金融业ETF涨0.95%,医疗业ETF、全球航空业ETF、生物科技指数ETF及可选消费ETF亦各上涨至少0.5%。</p><p><strong>热门股表现</strong></p><p>大型科技股多数上涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>、Meta涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>涨超1%,特斯拉跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>跌超2%。</p><p>贵金属板块涨幅居前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CDE\">科尔黛伦矿业</a>涨超12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAAS\">泛美白银</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽曼矿业</a>涨超5%,金田涨超4%。</p><p>美国医疗器械制造商Shockwave Medical股价上涨2%,此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">强生</a>公司同意以125亿美元收购该公司。</p><p>热门中概股涨跌不一,纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.18%,本周累涨0.37%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">富途控股</a>涨超1%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超1%。</p><p><strong>宏观新闻</strong></p><p><strong>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425454895\" title=\"美联储高官“比鹰”:理事鲍曼称如果通胀居高不下,可能需要进一步加息\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">美联储高官“比鹰”:理事鲍曼称如果通胀居高不下,可能需要进一步加息</a></strong></p><p>近几日美联储多位高级官员密集讲话,其中不乏“鹰声大作”的表态。继周四明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称美联储今年甚至有可能不降息之后,拥有FOMC永久表决权的美联储理事鲍曼周五表示,有可能需要提高利率才能控制住通胀。</p><p><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425111485\" title=\"美国就业数据强劲,市场降息预期崩了,9月可能才迎来“首降”\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">美国就业数据强劲,市场降息预期崩了,9月可能才迎来“首降”</a></strong></p><p>周五,受意外持续强劲的美国就业市场影响,市场的降息预期进一步回撤,年初以来美债市场的疲软走势延续。<strong>从市场定价来看,交易员们甚至对9月前不再定价一次完整的降息,也即美联储可能要到9月才会开启今年的首次降息。</strong></p><p><strong>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425562080\" title=\"美国财长耶伦再提反对中美“脱钩”\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">美国财长耶伦再提反对中美“脱钩”</a></strong></p><p>耶伦在广州参加了中国美国商会主办的活动,并对美国在华企业发表了讲话,再次强调反对中美“脱钩”。</p><p><strong>公司消息</strong></p><p><strong>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425751414\" title=\"马斯克:特斯拉将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">马斯克:特斯拉将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车</a></strong></p><p>周五盘后,马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称,特斯拉计划8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车(robotaxi)。马斯克此前表示,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车将使用自动驾驶技术自动接送乘客。</p><p><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425999735\" title=\"马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划</a></strong></p><p>据路透报道,特斯拉放弃了推出低成本汽车计划,随后马斯克在社媒平台X上发文称,“路透在撒谎”。马斯克第一次提出2.5万美元车型是在2020年9月的一个活动上。他当时说,特斯拉进行的一系列创新使他有信心公司在三年左右时间内可以制造出一款这种价位的电动车。三年多过去了,特斯拉的产品阵容中依然缺乏价格更低车型,事实证明这一品牌的汽车价格较高。</p><p><strong>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425562246\" title=\"一季度产量远超销量,特斯拉大幅打折清理库存\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">一季度产量远超销量,特斯拉大幅打折清理库存</a></strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>公司正在大幅下调最畅销车型的价格,以清理其该公司历史上最大的库存。</p><p>该公司正在对库存的Model Y运动型多用途车进行降价销售,后轮驱动版本的价格比定制价格低4,600美元。长续航和高性能版的Model Y售价至少打折5,000美元。</p><p><strong>4、美国司法部将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>空难遇难者家属律师会面</strong></p><p>2018和2019年,两架波音737 MAX 8客机分别发生空难,总计346人遇难。据路透社4月4日报道,美国司法部下周将与两起坠机事故的遇难者家属律师会面。目前,美司法部正在进行相关调查,以决定是否继续推进对波音的刑事诉讼。据报道,美国司法部与遇难者家属律师的会面定于4月9日下午进行。此前,美国司法部表示,计划于4月24日与波音737 MAX客机坠毁事故遇难者家属会面。</p><p><strong>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425556649\" title=\"台积电:除位于震幅较大地区部分生产线外 台湾晶圆厂内设备已大致复原\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">台积电:除位于震幅较大地区部分生产线外 台湾晶圆厂内设备已大致复原</a></strong></p><p>周五台积电最新回应媒体震后工厂恢复情况。截至今日,除了位于震幅较大地区的部分生产线,需要较长的时间调整校正以恢复自动化生产外,台湾晶圆厂内的设备已大致复原。台积电表示,公司全年业绩展望仍将维持一月法说会展望,全年营收增长预计低至20%的中段(low-to-mid twenties)百分比。</p><p><strong>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425656794\" title=\"Spire Global携手英伟达利用人工智能帮助改善天气预报\" target=\"_blank\">Spire Global携手英伟达利用人工智能帮助改善天气预报</a></strong></p><p>多年来,人工智能(AI)一直在天气预报建模中发挥着重要作用。生成式人工智能的最新突破,使天气预报最终变得更加准确成为可能。这就是天基数据和分析提供商Spire Global最近宣布与AI宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>达成合作伙伴关系的目的。Spire Global首席执行官兼联合创始人Peter Platzer表示:“深度学习、神经网络和生成式人工智能所做的是,它们已经将权力从那些能够访问超级计算机的人转移到那些能够访问超级数据的人身上。”</p><p>多年来,人工智能(AI)一直在天气预报建模中发挥着重要作用。生成式人工智能的最新突破,使天气预报最终变得更加准确成为可能。这就是天基数据和分析提供商Spire Global最近宣布与AI宠儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>达成合作伙伴关系的目的。Spire Global首席执行官兼联合创始人Peter Platzer表示:“深度学习、神经网络和生成式人工智能所做的是,它们已经将权力从那些能够访问超级计算机的人转移到那些能够访问超级数据的人身上。</p><p><strong>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2425672405\" title=\"在线问诊公司Teladoc公司CEO离职,公司市值三年缩水95%\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">在线问诊公司Teladoc公司CEO离职,公司市值三年缩水95%</a></strong></p><p>在线问诊公司Teladoc Health周五宣布首席执行官Jason Gorevic突然离职,他已经立即辞去公司CEO一职。该公司董事会已暂时任命首席财务官Mala Murthy为Gorevic的继任者,并聘请了一家猎头公司来遴选长期稳定继任者。Teladoc股价基本持平,但今年迄今其股票下跌了约34%。对比2021年2月创造的294.54美元历史最高点,目前该股已下跌了约95%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","SPY":"标普500ETF","HK0000369188.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","HK0000369196.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113811154","content_text":"①马斯克:特斯拉将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车; ②马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划; ③热门中概股涨跌不一,纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.18%; ④美国3月份非农就业人数增加30.3万人。4月6日讯 美东时间周五,美股三大指数集体收涨,此前美国3月就业增长大超预期,暗示美联储今年降息的时间可能延后。美国劳工局周五公布的数据显示,美国3月份非农就业人数增加30.3万人,远高于经济学家们预测的20万人,也高于前值27万人,创下去年5月以来的最大增幅。非农数据公布后,互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期,美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次,将6月降息概率减少至54.5%,互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。BOK Financial分析师Steve Wyett评论称:“很难从3月份的就业报告中找出任何问题。唯一可能对今天的报告感到失望的是那些期待美联储降息的人。我们仍然预计美联储的下一步行动将是降息,但目前几乎没有任何紧迫感。”独立顾问联盟首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli认为,对投资者来说,消费者支出和企业利润要比美联储多久降息以及降息多少次更重要。换句话说,如果经济和企业基本面良好,那么2024年降息4次、3次或2次,对美股都同样有利。当前状况让投资者左右为难,一方面希望经济走强以支持企业盈利进一步增长,另一方面又希望美联储赶快降息,但二者不可得兼。此外,美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼当天声称,现在还不是降低利率的时候,如果通胀进展停滞甚至逆转,我们仍愿意进一步加息。此外,达拉斯联储主席洛根也声称,现在考虑降息还为时过早,目前美联储还没有降息的紧迫感,有时间继续等待,看看即将发布的数据,看看金融状况如何演变。分析称,虽然鲍曼和洛根的基调更为鹰派,但并未像此前一天的卡什卡利一样冲击到市场,再加上美联储持续释放鹰派信号,投资者对此有所“脱敏”。市场动态截至收盘,道指涨307.06点,涨幅为0.80%,报38904.04点;纳指涨199.44点,涨幅为1.24%,报16248.52点;标普500指数涨57.13点,涨幅为1.11%,报5204.34点。标普500指数的11个板块全线收高,电信服务板块收涨1.6%表现最佳,工业板块与科技板块各涨1.43%与1.38%。能源板块涨1.09%。可选消费、原材料、医疗保健及金融板块涨幅亦接近1%。美股行业ETF收盘全线上涨,网络股指数ETF涨1.78%,半导体ETF涨1.25%,全球科技股ETF涨1.19%,科技行业ETF涨1.15%,能源业ETF涨1.07%,金融业ETF涨0.95%,医疗业ETF、全球航空业ETF、生物科技指数ETF及可选消费ETF亦各上涨至少0.5%。热门股表现大型科技股多数上涨,奈飞、Meta涨超3%,亚马逊、英伟达涨超2%,微软、谷歌涨超1%,特斯拉跌超3%,英特尔跌超2%。贵金属板块涨幅居前,科尔黛伦矿业涨超12%,泛美白银、纽曼矿业涨超5%,金田涨超4%。美国医疗器械制造商Shockwave Medical股价上涨2%,此前强生公司同意以125亿美元收购该公司。热门中概股涨跌不一,纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.18%,本周累涨0.37%。爱奇艺涨超4%,腾讯音乐涨超3%,满帮、富途控股涨超1%。微博、蔚来跌超2%,哔哩哔哩、百度跌超1%。宏观新闻1、美联储高官“比鹰”:理事鲍曼称如果通胀居高不下,可能需要进一步加息近几日美联储多位高级官员密集讲话,其中不乏“鹰声大作”的表态。继周四明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称美联储今年甚至有可能不降息之后,拥有FOMC永久表决权的美联储理事鲍曼周五表示,有可能需要提高利率才能控制住通胀。2、美国就业数据强劲,市场降息预期崩了,9月可能才迎来“首降”周五,受意外持续强劲的美国就业市场影响,市场的降息预期进一步回撤,年初以来美债市场的疲软走势延续。从市场定价来看,交易员们甚至对9月前不再定价一次完整的降息,也即美联储可能要到9月才会开启今年的首次降息。3、美国财长耶伦再提反对中美“脱钩”耶伦在广州参加了中国美国商会主办的活动,并对美国在华企业发表了讲话,再次强调反对中美“脱钩”。公司消息1、马斯克:特斯拉将于8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车周五盘后,马斯克在社交媒体平台X上发文称,特斯拉计划8月8日推出无人驾驶出租车(robotaxi)。马斯克此前表示,特斯拉的无人驾驶出租车将使用自动驾驶技术自动接送乘客。2、马斯克否认特斯拉放弃推出低成本汽车计划据路透报道,特斯拉放弃了推出低成本汽车计划,随后马斯克在社媒平台X上发文称,“路透在撒谎”。马斯克第一次提出2.5万美元车型是在2020年9月的一个活动上。他当时说,特斯拉进行的一系列创新使他有信心公司在三年左右时间内可以制造出一款这种价位的电动车。三年多过去了,特斯拉的产品阵容中依然缺乏价格更低车型,事实证明这一品牌的汽车价格较高。3、一季度产量远超销量,特斯拉大幅打折清理库存特斯拉公司正在大幅下调最畅销车型的价格,以清理其该公司历史上最大的库存。该公司正在对库存的Model Y运动型多用途车进行降价销售,后轮驱动版本的价格比定制价格低4,600美元。长续航和高性能版的Model Y售价至少打折5,000美元。4、美国司法部将与波音空难遇难者家属律师会面2018和2019年,两架波音737 MAX 8客机分别发生空难,总计346人遇难。据路透社4月4日报道,美国司法部下周将与两起坠机事故的遇难者家属律师会面。目前,美司法部正在进行相关调查,以决定是否继续推进对波音的刑事诉讼。据报道,美国司法部与遇难者家属律师的会面定于4月9日下午进行。此前,美国司法部表示,计划于4月24日与波音737 MAX客机坠毁事故遇难者家属会面。5、台积电:除位于震幅较大地区部分生产线外 台湾晶圆厂内设备已大致复原周五台积电最新回应媒体震后工厂恢复情况。截至今日,除了位于震幅较大地区的部分生产线,需要较长的时间调整校正以恢复自动化生产外,台湾晶圆厂内的设备已大致复原。台积电表示,公司全年业绩展望仍将维持一月法说会展望,全年营收增长预计低至20%的中段(low-to-mid twenties)百分比。6、Spire Global携手英伟达利用人工智能帮助改善天气预报多年来,人工智能(AI)一直在天气预报建模中发挥着重要作用。生成式人工智能的最新突破,使天气预报最终变得更加准确成为可能。这就是天基数据和分析提供商Spire Global最近宣布与AI宠儿英伟达达成合作伙伴关系的目的。Spire Global首席执行官兼联合创始人Peter Platzer表示:“深度学习、神经网络和生成式人工智能所做的是,它们已经将权力从那些能够访问超级计算机的人转移到那些能够访问超级数据的人身上。”多年来,人工智能(AI)一直在天气预报建模中发挥着重要作用。生成式人工智能的最新突破,使天气预报最终变得更加准确成为可能。这就是天基数据和分析提供商Spire Global最近宣布与AI宠儿英伟达达成合作伙伴关系的目的。Spire Global首席执行官兼联合创始人Peter Platzer表示:“深度学习、神经网络和生成式人工智能所做的是,它们已经将权力从那些能够访问超级计算机的人转移到那些能够访问超级数据的人身上。7、在线问诊公司Teladoc公司CEO离职,公司市值三年缩水95%在线问诊公司Teladoc Health周五宣布首席执行官Jason Gorevic突然离职,他已经立即辞去公司CEO一职。该公司董事会已暂时任命首席财务官Mala 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15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695188","media":"新浪科技","summary":"大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p> 文丨周文猛</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong>“大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做!</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大部分人为什么被取代,完全是因为上班摸鱼太多,没有用智商。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朱啸虎:年底GPT-5达不到预期,英伟达市值就“完蛋了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-21 15:46 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml><strong>新浪科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2024-06-21/doc-inazntae1257659.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695188","content_text":"文丨周文猛 在中国创投行业,“周期论”一直是被高频提及的话题。 近日,金沙江创投主管合伙人朱啸虎表示,“当前,中国正在进入一个以10年为单位的长周期中,而在以前,周期的单位是2~3年。” 朱啸虎指出,在周期变长的情况下,生成式AI、PC/移动互联网以及平价消费等领域,仍会出现新的机会点。而对于中国企业和中国消费者而言,都要追求性价比,“就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比”。 此外,他还分享了自己对于AI投资、英伟达的理解。他预判,预计到今年年底,如果OpeanAI的GPT-5.0模型没能发布,或者能力未达到有效提升,英伟达全球第一的市值可能“就完蛋了”。 以下是《WeTalk》栏目整理的与朱啸虎对话要点,在保持原意的基础上略有修改。 “中国现在一些AI创新,要比美国领先” 新浪科技:您不投AI大模型公司,但会投AI应用,现在有开始看项目吗?最近流行一个说法是做To B软件的都不赚钱,软件企业都很惨,但AI投资To B又快于To C,你怎么看? 朱啸虎:第一,中国企业和中国消费者一样,都要追求性价比。我觉得中国最大问题是程序员太多了,全世界3000万,中国有700万,而且中国700万程序员工作特别努力,工作量都是别人的2-3倍以上。 第二,实际上中国软件(29.490, 0.51, 1.76%)企业并不惨,大家就是忽视了汇率。中国的软件行业如果把两三亿人民币的收入,比作两三亿美金的收入,中国软件企业不比美国差的。中国只是因为人力成本便宜,国内生产服务业问题就是汇率。 我认为,AI以后可能还是有机会,因为AI可以帮助企业降本增效再升一个数量级,这个时候客户就非常愿意付钱。我就用AI赋能的软件,可能比传统软件要在中国更有机会点,就像拼多多一样地给消费者创造极致性价比。然后AI软件同样给企业客户创造极致性价比,这个时候客户很愿意付钱。 新浪科技:你现在有跟硅谷的团队开AI会议吗?之前有传中国投资人已经不参与会议了? 朱啸虎:开会的,但是以前专门有开一个关于AI对中国创新的会,现在我们还是,但更多的是我们和美国人讲,我们在中国的AI应用上有哪些创新。中国现在的一些AI创新,其实要比美国领先的,第一是数据多,第二是很多时候现在AI达不到100%的准确,在很细分领域可能是60%左右,最好可能80%多,剩下的工作基本是需要人工补齐的,但是需要人工补齐这块,中国肯定是有优势的。 “年底GPT-5.0达不到预期,英伟达市值就完蛋了” 新浪科技:你怎么看英伟达的?他也是AI的底层,现在市值已经全球第一了。 朱啸虎:就看Scaling Law(规模法则)有没有效果,如果Scaling Law无效了,它的股价就会跌得一塌糊涂。要看到今年底,OpeanAI能不能发布GPT-5.0,如果是10万-20万张GPU堆算力砸下去,还见不到(GPT)智能能力提升,那英伟达他就完蛋了。 当然,黄教主(黄仁勋)确实很会销售,他搞了一个主权AI,想让每个国家都要去买自己的AI芯片。所以他会创造概念去销售,今年的股价应该是能撑得住的,但是如果到年底GPT-5.0还做不出来,大家怀疑,就开始危险了。 新浪科技:前两天苹果提出了一个Apple Intelligence,也可以理解为端侧AI,你怎么看这个事情? 朱啸虎:苹果的发布会非常有意思,它至少说明两个问题。 第一,最重要的是用户体验,而不是技术。你看iPad 新增的那个计算器,你说有啥技术?其实没啥技术,但是用户体验特别好。而且苹果重新定义了入口问题,今天它也可以使用OpenAI的GPT了,但他不给GPT导用户,说明苹果的用户信息不给OpenAI,只统一调接口去访问这个服务就行了,很和谐。 第二,苹果可以随时切掉OpenAI的服务。之前谷歌为进入苹果生态,每年给苹果支付100多亿美金,今天苹果和OpenAI双方是免费的,如果谷歌的Gemini追上来了,然后再给苹果支付100亿美金,iPhone肯定也会用。所以,最终还是入口为王,而且苹果自己也在做大模型,如果一直没有GPT-5.0,苹果大模型性能上来后,可能就用自己的GPT了。 “大部分被AI取代的人,是因为上班摸鱼太多了” 新浪科技:如果给想进入AI领域的投资者提一些建议,你会说什么? 朱啸虎:你能不能给你的用户创造一个数量级以上的价值,让你的用户对这样的产品尖叫“哇”,这样的极致效果。 新浪科技:还会有这样的产品吗? 朱啸虎:很多,你需要聚焦到一个垂直行业,在这个行业里面生根,真正懂你的客户,知道他们要什么东西。而且知道什么事情是今天AI能做的,或者你加20%的人都能够补齐的。 新浪科技:对个人有什么建议呢?我们正在经历长周期,而且大家对AI的发展也比较焦虑,它什么都能做! 朱啸虎:AI肯定不可能100%取代人类,我觉得达到80%已经很了不起了,在很多细分领域,很多大模型还只能达到50%左右。你只要把你工作效率变得很高,你的表现不要比下面一半的人差,就可以了。 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