摸虎校尉的个人主页 - 老虎社区

摸虎校尉

摸虎校尉

向市场学习

IP属地：未知

51关注

5粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2021-11-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@爱投学院:Nubank IPO：投资者应该了解沃伦巴菲特支持的股票

2020-09-04

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$吓得只好来对冲，正指都不行，得用期权

2020-08-27

$蔚来(NIO)$卖了换成美国网存

2020-08-27

$理想汽车(LI)$回避风险

2020-08-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$还好上次及时止损。可能是因为股价已经透支了财报吧……

2020-08-26

$蔚来(NIO)$2个晚上的功夫

2020-08-25

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-08-19

$老虎证券(TIGR)$买！

2020-08-18

$老虎证券(TIGR)$什么也不想说~

2020-08-17

终于回到了七月初主升浪前的水平，买入的时机或许到了。当前较低的锂价水平已经触及澳矿企业和国内锂盐厂的成本线，锂价继续大幅下行风险较低。在国内新能源汽车市场回暖和欧洲市场持续高增长的拉动下，锂价有望走出长期底部，开启复苏。国内锂盐企业则有望享受锂价触底回暖和锂原料成本下降带来的盈利抬升。

2020-08-17

$乐信(LX)$调整很充分了，考虑加仓

2020-07-21

$乐信(LX)$分期乐的电销和催收薪资位居同行业领先水平。见闻近期又在组建新的地推团队，拓展新业务。持续看好你，立贴为证！

2020-07-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这一波操作能迎来点赞👍加关注吗？👀

2020-07-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$校尉又来摸虎啦

2020-07-16

$趣头条(QTT)$请继续📉

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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IPO：投资者应该了解沃伦巴菲特支持的股票","htmlText":"Nubank IPO 即将上市。Neobank 于 10 月 27 日宣布向美国证券交易委员会提交一份机密文件。这是我们所知道的……Nubank 概览：关于 NeobankNubank 是由沃伦巴菲特支持的数字银行服务。Neobank 是拉丁美洲最大的金融科技银行。Neobank 是一家在线运营且没有实体分行网络的银行。它的总部位于巴西，在哥伦比亚、阿根廷和墨西哥设有办事处。该公司成立于 2013 年。它开始提供由移动应用程序管理的零费用信用卡。多年来，Nubank 的规模迅速扩大，拥有超过 4000 万客户。其产品包括： 免费数字银行账户 信用卡和借记卡 个人贷款 点对点汇款 人寿保险 商业银行业务 该公司的一个独特之处在于它提供了一种完全通过移动应用程序控制的信用卡。客户可以使用该应用程序发送和接收付款、跟踪交易、冻结信用卡、申请提高信用额度并联系客户支持。大流行加速了对数字化银行业务的需求。Nubank 的首席执行官 David Vélez告诉 PYMNTS...... 这场危机迫使人们采用在正常情况下需要很长时间才能数字化的人口统计数据。危机过去后，我们只会看到愿意使用数字银行的客户加速增加。 网上银行正在成为数字时代的新常态。没有任何费用或最低余额要求有助于像 Nubank 这样的贷方的吸引力。自从大流行迫使人们转向移动应用程序来获取银行解决方案以来，这一趋势只会加速。数字化银行正在颠覆行业Nubank 是全球发展最快的金融科技公司之一。根据CBInsights 的数据，Nubank 是全球第九大最有价值的独角兽。在名单上，该公司落后于金融科技公司Stripe和Klarna。该银行发行的借记卡数量已经超过巴西最大的银行 Itau。由于扩展到墨西哥和哥伦比亚，该公司声称自己是亚洲以外客户群最大的独立数字银行。由于全球金融科技服务的使用增加，该行业的市场首次亮相加速。","listText":"Nubank IPO 即将上市。Neobank 于 10 月 27 日宣布向美国证券交易委员会提交一份机密文件。这是我们所知道的……Nubank 概览：关于 NeobankNubank 是由沃伦巴菲特支持的数字银行服务。Neobank 是拉丁美洲最大的金融科技银行。Neobank 是一家在线运营且没有实体分行网络的银行。它的总部位于巴西，在哥伦比亚、阿根廷和墨西哥设有办事处。该公司成立于 2013 年。它开始提供由移动应用程序管理的零费用信用卡。多年来，Nubank 的规模迅速扩大，拥有超过 4000 万客户。其产品包括： 免费数字银行账户 信用卡和借记卡 个人贷款 点对点汇款 人寿保险 商业银行业务 该公司的一个独特之处在于它提供了一种完全通过移动应用程序控制的信用卡。客户可以使用该应用程序发送和接收付款、跟踪交易、冻结信用卡、申请提高信用额度并联系客户支持。大流行加速了对数字化银行业务的需求。Nubank 的首席执行官 David Vélez告诉 PYMNTS...... 这场危机迫使人们采用在正常情况下需要很长时间才能数字化的人口统计数据。危机过去后，我们只会看到愿意使用数字银行的客户加速增加。 网上银行正在成为数字时代的新常态。没有任何费用或最低余额要求有助于像 Nubank 这样的贷方的吸引力。自从大流行迫使人们转向移动应用程序来获取银行解决方案以来，这一趋势只会加速。数字化银行正在颠覆行业Nubank 是全球发展最快的金融科技公司之一。根据CBInsights 的数据，Nubank 是全球第九大最有价值的独角兽。在名单上，该公司落后于金融科技公司Stripe和Klarna。该银行发行的借记卡数量已经超过巴西最大的银行 Itau。由于扩展到墨西哥和哥伦比亚，该公司声称自己是亚洲以外客户群最大的独立数字银行。由于全球金融科技服务的使用增加，该行业的市场首次亮相加速。","text":"Nubank IPO 即将上市。Neobank 于 10 月 27 日宣布向美国证券交易委员会提交一份机密文件。这是我们所知道的……Nubank 概览：关于 NeobankNubank 是由沃伦巴菲特支持的数字银行服务。Neobank 是拉丁美洲最大的金融科技银行。Neobank 是一家在线运营且没有实体分行网络的银行。它的总部位于巴西，在哥伦比亚、阿根廷和墨西哥设有办事处。该公司成立于 2013 年。它开始提供由移动应用程序管理的零费用信用卡。多年来，Nubank 的规模迅速扩大，拥有超过 4000 万客户。其产品包括： 免费数字银行账户 信用卡和借记卡 个人贷款 点对点汇款 人寿保险 商业银行业务 该公司的一个独特之处在于它提供了一种完全通过移动应用程序控制的信用卡。客户可以使用该应用程序发送和接收付款、跟踪交易、冻结信用卡、申请提高信用额度并联系客户支持。大流行加速了对数字化银行业务的需求。Nubank 的首席执行官 David Vélez告诉 PYMNTS...... 这场危机迫使人们采用在正常情况下需要很长时间才能数字化的人口统计数据。危机过去后，我们只会看到愿意使用数字银行的客户加速增加。 网上银行正在成为数字时代的新常态。没有任何费用或最低余额要求有助于像 Nubank 这样的贷方的吸引力。自从大流行迫使人们转向移动应用程序来获取银行解决方案以来，这一趋势只会加速。数字化银行正在颠覆行业Nubank 是全球发展最快的金融科技公司之一。根据CBInsights 的数据，Nubank 是全球第九大最有价值的独角兽。在名单上，该公司落后于金融科技公司Stripe和Klarna。该银行发行的借记卡数量已经超过巴西最大的银行 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是一家在线运营且没有实体分行网络的银行。它的总部位于巴西，在哥伦比亚、阿根廷和墨西哥设有办事处。该公司成立于 2013 年。它开始提供由移动应用程序管理的零费用信用卡。多年来，Nubank 的规模迅速扩大，拥有超过 4000 万客户。其产品包括： 免费数字银行账户 信用卡和借记卡 个人贷款 点对点汇款 人寿保险 商业银行业务 该公司的一个独特之处在于它提供了一种完全通过移动应用程序控制的信用卡。客户可以使用该应用程序发送和接收付款、跟踪交易、冻结信用卡、申请提高信用额度并联系客户支持。大流行加速了对数字化银行业务的需求。Nubank 的首席执行官 David Vélez告诉 PYMNTS...... 这场危机迫使人们采用在正常情况下需要很长时间才能数字化的人口统计数据。危机过去后，我们只会看到愿意使用数字银行的客户加速增加。 网上银行正在成为数字时代的新常态。没有任何费用或最低余额要求有助于像 Nubank 这样的贷方的吸引力。自从大流行迫使人们转向移动应用程序来获取银行解决方案以来，这一趋势只会加速。数字化银行正在颠覆行业Nubank 是全球发展最快的金融科技公司之一。根据CBInsights 的数据，Nubank 是全球第九大最有价值的独角兽。在名单上，该公司落后于金融科技公司Stripe和Klarna。该银行发行的借记卡数量已经超过巴西最大的银行 Itau。由于扩展到墨西哥和哥伦比亚，该公司声称自己是亚洲以外客户群最大的独立数字银行。由于全球金融科技服务的使用增加，该行业的市场首次亮相加速。","text":"Nubank IPO 即将上市。Neobank 于 10 月 27 日宣布向美国证券交易委员会提交一份机密文件。这是我们所知道的……Nubank 概览：关于 NeobankNubank 是由沃伦巴菲特支持的数字银行服务。Neobank 是拉丁美洲最大的金融科技银行。Neobank 是一家在线运营且没有实体分行网络的银行。它的总部位于巴西，在哥伦比亚、阿根廷和墨西哥设有办事处。该公司成立于 2013 年。它开始提供由移动应用程序管理的零费用信用卡。多年来，Nubank 的规模迅速扩大，拥有超过 4000 万客户。其产品包括： 免费数字银行账户 信用卡和借记卡 个人贷款 点对点汇款 人寿保险 商业银行业务 该公司的一个独特之处在于它提供了一种完全通过移动应用程序控制的信用卡。客户可以使用该应用程序发送和接收付款、跟踪交易、冻结信用卡、申请提高信用额度并联系客户支持。大流行加速了对数字化银行业务的需求。Nubank 的首席执行官 David Vélez告诉 PYMNTS...... 这场危机迫使人们采用在正常情况下需要很长时间才能数字化的人口统计数据。危机过去后，我们只会看到愿意使用数字银行的客户加速增加。 网上银行正在成为数字时代的新常态。没有任何费用或最低余额要求有助于像 Nubank 这样的贷方的吸引力。自从大流行迫使人们转向移动应用程序来获取银行解决方案以来，这一趋势只会加速。数字化银行正在颠覆行业Nubank 是全球发展最快的金融科技公司之一。根据CBInsights 的数据，Nubank 是全球第九大最有价值的独角兽。在名单上，该公司落后于金融科技公司Stripe和Klarna。该银行发行的借记卡数量已经超过巴西最大的银行 Itau。由于扩展到墨西哥和哥伦比亚，该公司声称自己是亚洲以外客户群最大的独立数字银行。由于全球金融科技服务的使用增加，该行业的市场首次亮相加速。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e7dab63b1bce9c43e8810efa28261a","width":"730","height":"467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843863212","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973362215,"gmtCreate":1598450944537,"gmtModify":1704218935169,"author":{"id":"3543530109657182","authorId":"3543530109657182","name":"摸虎校尉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8abea8d311df3cb9182abbc13309f22","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3543530109657182","authorIdStr":"3543530109657182"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>还好上次及时止损。可能是因为股价已经透支了财报吧……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>还好上次及时止损。可能是因为股价已经透支了财报吧……","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$还好上次及时止损。可能是因为股价已经透支了财报吧……","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0008aa7446429df65c8a21a47483948f","width":"741","height":"1324"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973362215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979729888,"gmtCreate":1598364351144,"gmtModify":1704218528287,"author":{"id":"3543530109657182","authorId":"3543530109657182","name":"摸虎校尉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8abea8d311df3cb9182abbc13309f22","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3543530109657182","authorIdStr":"3543530109657182"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979729888","repostId":"2060918611","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2060918611","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1597917222,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2060918611?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-20 17:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恐慌指数VIX将上升，黄金将受益？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2060918611","media":"金十数据","summary":"股市波动性下降就可以高枕无忧了？分析师QuandaryFX指出，当心VIX指数的季节性规律！","content":"<html><body><p>距离3月底全球金融市场暴跌已过去快半年，这段时间市场的波动性已大大降低，恐慌指数VIX目前也较3月份的高位大幅回落。</p><p>分析师QuandaryFX认为，<strong>VIX指数接近完成均值回归，他提醒投资者要打起精神，因为根据VIX指数的季节性规律，从现在开始到第四季度初，恐慌指数VIX将出现反弹。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/07bdbac3-5df7-4d96-8317-d2a8819ebc7f.png\"/></p><p><strong><span>VIX指数已回归</span></strong><span><span><span><strong>至</strong></span></span></span><strong><span>均值附近，有60%的概率将反弹</span></strong></p><p>QuandaryFX做了一个统计，发现恐慌指数VIX目前正接近历史平均水平。但根据VIX指数的历史数据，它即将发生季节性反弹。</p><p>VIX指数目前为21.7，QuandaryFX指出，历史上，该指数70%以上的时间都在该数值以下。因此他认为，从统计角度分析，VIX指数目前仅较长期平均值偏离1/10个标准差，这意味着<strong>VIX指数的均值回归调整已基本结束，下个月VIX指数很可能将小幅回升。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/65a8ad9a-fd0c-4fba-935d-f90279883e11.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/09e2c72d-0123-44c6-b448-0a991a003ab1.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/b9eb9d1a-f629-4f1a-9cc2-52f9a1b613c5.png\"/></p><p>在均值回归已基本完成，不能为交易者提供更多VIX走势方向信号的情况下，QuandaryFX表示，投资者可以转向关注<strong><span>VIX指数的季节性规律。</span></strong></p><p><strong>在过去的几十年中，VIX指数</strong><strong>在</strong><strong>8月-10月波动性会上升</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>有</strong><strong>60％</strong><strong>的概率</strong><strong>上涨</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>平均上涨</strong><strong>32％</strong><strong>；</strong><strong>有40%的概率会下跌，平均下跌10</strong><strong>％</strong><strong>。</strong>QuandaryFX表示，综合来看，VIX指数指数8月-10月之间的平均变动率为上涨14％。他认为，今年很可能也不会例外。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/b168af94-8dcf-42a6-9781-8357afe2eb86.png\"/></p><p>QuandaryFX的理由是，首先，VIX指数并没有出现要背离季节性规律的迹象；更重要的是，标普500指数还在创新高。QuandaryFX指出，<strong>在标普500指数创新高的情况下，</strong><strong>VIX</strong><strong>指数</strong><strong>上涨的可能性约为60％。</strong>此外，VIX指数刚刚触及月度低点，<strong>而在</strong><strong>VIX</strong><strong>指数本身创下</strong><strong>新低的情况下，</strong><strong>接下来</strong><strong>上涨的可能性</strong><strong>也</strong><strong>约为60％。</strong></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/a36dad81-482f-446c-bc81-669033a63ec8.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/bdcde396-94a8-4d47-9017-ba728853f3dd.png\"/></p><p>综合这三项数据来看，QuandaryFX得出一个结论：<strong>在接下来的1-2个月中，VIX</strong><strong>指数的</strong><strong>上涨</strong><strong>概率</strong><strong>约为60％</strong><strong>：</strong></p><blockquote><p>VIX指数的季节性规律表明，从现在到10月，VIX指数的上涨概率约为60％；</p><p>标普500指数达到新高表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；</p><p>VIX指数本身跌至新低表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；</p></blockquote><p><strong><span>如何对冲波动</span></strong><span><span><span><strong>性</strong></span></span></span><strong><span>上升？</span></strong></p><p>QuandaryFX指出，<strong>投资者若想要对冲</strong><strong>VIX</strong><strong>指数可能的波动，最直接途径是<span>做空</span></strong><span><strong>VIX短期期货ETF（</strong><strong>ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>简称</strong></span><strong><span>VIXY）。</span></strong></p><p>不过需要注意的是，在绝大多数时候，VIXY要比VIX指数期货贵，因为设计VIXY这个ETF的金融机构ProShares会把VIX期货的升水和换仓费也加在里面，并且还会可能有延期损耗和振荡损耗。</p><p>QuandaryFX提醒，VIXY每6个月的损耗达20-30％，这意味着若持有VIXY超过1-2年，投资者很可能白忙活一场，得不到任何收益。因此，QuandaryFX表示，<strong>如果投资者要选用该ETF，一定要及时调整头寸。</strong></p><p>此外，QuandaryFX表示，鉴于VIXY成本效益较低，加上市场波动本就是难测的，<strong><span>VIX</span></strong><span><strong>指数的</strong><strong>相关期权</strong><strong>产品</strong><strong>或许是更好的</strong><strong>对冲</strong></span><strong><span>选择。</span></strong></p><p><strong><u>那么随着VIX指数回升，投资者又该如何对冲美股可能出现的下跌呢？</u></strong></p><p>面对美股背离经济基本面屡创新高的无奈事实，投资者如果还想参与美股市场，丹尼尔·拉博（Daniel Laboe）给出了两种对冲策略。</p><p><strong><span>其一是</span></strong><span><strong>交易Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ </strong><strong>（</strong><strong>QQQ</strong></span><strong><span>），</span></strong>QQQ旨在完全复制纳斯达克100指数（Nasdaq100 Index），优点是费率低，仅为0.2%，且透明度高。此外，拉博表示，<strong>他通常会在</strong><strong>QQQ</strong><strong>到期前</strong><strong>至少一个月内</strong><strong>提前买入相关</strong><strong>期权，</strong><strong>一旦发生</strong><strong>不利</strong><strong>于他的波动，该策略还可以</strong><strong>进行</strong><strong>二次对冲。</strong></p><p>第二种方法比较简单，就是<strong><span>买入纳斯达克100指数的反向ETF，</span>比如 ProShare's S&amp;P 500 short （SH）。</strong>拉博还指出，如果投资者希望在这上面少花费资金，还可以选择3倍杠杆的SQQQ。不过，<strong>使用杠杆的话风险就很大了，</strong><strong>拉博提醒，这只能作为短线操作之用，相关头寸持有时长不应超过几个星期。</strong></p><p>拉博表示，通过这些对冲策略，投资者可以对比较倾向的点位押注，同时也能有效控制风险。一旦市场走势对投资者下注的投资组合不利，交易者还可以行权或者调整期货、ETF的相关头寸，减少风险敞口。</p><p><span>VIX指数和黄金之间的关系</span></p><p>通常而言，市场普遍认同黄金具有避险属性，在股市出现震荡和高度不确定性的情况下，投资者将转向黄金。</p><p>恐慌指数VIX在市场波动时将上升，因此<strong>理论上其数值与金价是同方向变动的，二者呈正相关。</strong>当VIX指数上升时，金价也可能将上涨。</p><p>分析师Man Yin To指出，<strong>当二者呈正相关时，</strong><strong>可以用VIX指数来预测金价。</strong></p><p>2014-2016年VIX指数和黄金基本上呈负相关，相关系数约在-0.6至-0.2之间，这段时间VIX指数对金价没有什么指导意义。但从2017年开始，二者的相关系数转为正值，约为+0.5。</p><p>目前VIX指数和黄金之间的相关系数仍为正。分析师Man Yin To提醒，根据季节性规律，VIX指数即将上升，这对黄金来说可能是一个利好。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/c0aca1d4-848e-445d-8adb-9b7cf02fdfa0.png\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恐慌指数VIX将上升，黄金将受益？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恐慌指数VIX将上升，黄金将受益？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-20 17:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=63768&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>距离3月底全球金融市场暴跌已过去快半年，这段时间市场的波动性已大大降低，恐慌指数VIX目前也较3月份的高位大幅回落。分析师QuandaryFX认为，VIX指数接近完成均值回归，他提醒投资者要打起精神，因为根据VIX指数的季节性规律，从现在开始到第四季度初，恐慌指数VIX将出现反弹。VIX指数已回归至均值附近，有60%的概率将反弹QuandaryFX做了一个统计，发现恐慌指数VIX目前正接近历史...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=63768&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/9d13ac34-06fa-4da8-b224-39463120d82e.png/lite","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=63768&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2060918611","content_text":"距离3月底全球金融市场暴跌已过去快半年，这段时间市场的波动性已大大降低，恐慌指数VIX目前也较3月份的高位大幅回落。分析师QuandaryFX认为，VIX指数接近完成均值回归，他提醒投资者要打起精神，因为根据VIX指数的季节性规律，从现在开始到第四季度初，恐慌指数VIX将出现反弹。VIX指数已回归至均值附近，有60%的概率将反弹QuandaryFX做了一个统计，发现恐慌指数VIX目前正接近历史平均水平。但根据VIX指数的历史数据，它即将发生季节性反弹。VIX指数目前为21.7，QuandaryFX指出，历史上，该指数70%以上的时间都在该数值以下。因此他认为，从统计角度分析，VIX指数目前仅较长期平均值偏离1/10个标准差，这意味着VIX指数的均值回归调整已基本结束，下个月VIX指数很可能将小幅回升。在均值回归已基本完成，不能为交易者提供更多VIX走势方向信号的情况下，QuandaryFX表示，投资者可以转向关注VIX指数的季节性规律。在过去的几十年中，VIX指数在8月-10月波动性会上升，有60％的概率上涨，平均上涨32％；有40%的概率会下跌，平均下跌10％。QuandaryFX表示，综合来看，VIX指数指数8月-10月之间的平均变动率为上涨14％。他认为，今年很可能也不会例外。QuandaryFX的理由是，首先，VIX指数并没有出现要背离季节性规律的迹象；更重要的是，标普500指数还在创新高。QuandaryFX指出，在标普500指数创新高的情况下，VIX指数上涨的可能性约为60％。此外，VIX指数刚刚触及月度低点，而在VIX指数本身创下新低的情况下，接下来上涨的可能性也约为60％。综合这三项数据来看，QuandaryFX得出一个结论：在接下来的1-2个月中，VIX指数的上涨概率约为60％：VIX指数的季节性规律表明，从现在到10月，VIX指数的上涨概率约为60％；标普500指数达到新高表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；VIX指数本身跌至新低表明，VIX指数接下来上涨的概率约为60％；如何对冲波动性上升？QuandaryFX指出，投资者若想要对冲VIX指数可能的波动，最直接途径是做空VIX短期期货ETF（ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF，简称VIXY）。不过需要注意的是，在绝大多数时候，VIXY要比VIX指数期货贵，因为设计VIXY这个ETF的金融机构ProShares会把VIX期货的升水和换仓费也加在里面，并且还会可能有延期损耗和振荡损耗。QuandaryFX提醒，VIXY每6个月的损耗达20-30％，这意味着若持有VIXY超过1-2年，投资者很可能白忙活一场，得不到任何收益。因此，QuandaryFX表示，如果投资者要选用该ETF，一定要及时调整头寸。此外，QuandaryFX表示，鉴于VIXY成本效益较低，加上市场波动本就是难测的，VIX指数的相关期权产品或许是更好的对冲选择。那么随着VIX指数回升，投资者又该如何对冲美股可能出现的下跌呢？面对美股背离经济基本面屡创新高的无奈事实，投资者如果还想参与美股市场，丹尼尔·拉博（Daniel Laboe）给出了两种对冲策略。其一是交易Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ （QQQ），QQQ旨在完全复制纳斯达克100指数（Nasdaq100 Index），优点是费率低，仅为0.2%，且透明度高。此外，拉博表示，他通常会在QQQ到期前至少一个月内提前买入相关期权，一旦发生不利于他的波动，该策略还可以进行二次对冲。第二种方法比较简单，就是买入纳斯达克100指数的反向ETF，比如 ProShare's S&P 500 short （SH）。拉博还指出，如果投资者希望在这上面少花费资金，还可以选择3倍杠杆的SQQQ。不过，使用杠杆的话风险就很大了，拉博提醒，这只能作为短线操作之用，相关头寸持有时长不应超过几个星期。拉博表示，通过这些对冲策略，投资者可以对比较倾向的点位押注，同时也能有效控制风险。一旦市场走势对投资者下注的投资组合不利，交易者还可以行权或者调整期货、ETF的相关头寸，减少风险敞口。VIX指数和黄金之间的关系通常而言，市场普遍认同黄金具有避险属性，在股市出现震荡和高度不确定性的情况下，投资者将转向黄金。恐慌指数VIX在市场波动时将上升，因此理论上其数值与金价是同方向变动的，二者呈正相关。当VIX指数上升时，金价也可能将上涨。分析师Man Yin To指出，当二者呈正相关时，可以用VIX指数来预测金价。2014-2016年VIX指数和黄金基本上呈负相关，相关系数约在-0.6至-0.2之间，这段时间VIX指数对金价没有什么指导意义。但从2017年开始，二者的相关系数转为正值，约为+0.5。目前VIX指数和黄金之间的相关系数仍为正。分析师Man Yin To提醒，根据季节性规律，VIX指数即将上升，这对黄金来说可能是一个利好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970992114,"gmtCreate":1597624011738,"gmtModify":1704216061232,"author":{"id":"3543530109657182","authorId":"3543530109657182","name":"摸虎校尉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8abea8d311df3cb9182abbc13309f22","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3543530109657182","authorIdStr":"3543530109657182"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"终于回到了七月初主升浪前的水平，买入的时机或许到了。当前较低的锂价水平已经触及澳矿企业和国内锂盐厂的成本线，锂价继续大幅下行风险较低。在国内新能源汽车市场回暖和欧洲市场持续高增长的拉动下，锂价有望走出长期底部，开启复苏。国内锂盐企业则有望享受锂价触底回暖和锂原料成本下降带来的盈利抬升。","listText":"终于回到了七月初主升浪前的水平，买入的时机或许到了。当前较低的锂价水平已经触及澳矿企业和国内锂盐厂的成本线，锂价继续大幅下行风险较低。在国内新能源汽车市场回暖和欧洲市场持续高增长的拉动下，锂价有望走出长期底部，开启复苏。国内锂盐企业则有望享受锂价触底回暖和锂原料成本下降带来的盈利抬升。","text":"终于回到了七月初主升浪前的水平，买入的时机或许到了。当前较低的锂价水平已经触及澳矿企业和国内锂盐厂的成本线，锂价继续大幅下行风险较低。在国内新能源汽车市场回暖和欧洲市场持续高增长的拉动下，锂价有望走出长期底部，开启复苏。国内锂盐企业则有望享受锂价触底回暖和锂原料成本下降带来的盈利抬升。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1753f745dc353818da7427c110e7b1","width":"750","height":"1511"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970992114","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}