流浪虎二号的个人主页 - 老虎社区

流浪虎二号

流浪虎二号

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IP属地：江苏

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流浪虎二号

09-19

$拼多多(PDD)$ 市盈率很低，价值没能完全体现，中概股是弱点，老板不敢当首富[捂脸]

流浪虎二号

08-09

台积电无可替代，三星和英特尔完全不是对手

流浪虎二号

07-16

十年信赖，一起创未来

查看详情：十年信赖，一起创未来我在参加老虎“探索宝藏功能，赢1010美元奖励”活动，一起来拿奖励吧此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

十年信赖，一起创未来

流浪虎二号

07-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎活动:【老虎十周年】探索宝藏功能，赢1010美元奖励

流浪虎二号

07-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎活动:【老虎十周年】探索宝藏功能，赢1010美元奖励

流浪虎二号

07-16

老虎带你发财易用的财富App

流浪虎二号

07-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎活动:【老虎十周年】探索宝藏功能，赢1010美元奖励

流浪虎二号

05-10

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 半导体双熊，INTEL和AMD[捂脸]

流浪虎二号

04-25

通用大模型快要成型了，硬件储备也厚，以后除了那几个超级巨头，堆不起硬件想玩大模型的大多得用META的服务吧，社交媒体属性比腾讯还强，短视频也不弱，保持稳定增长几乎是必然的，就这还暴跌？

一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年

流浪虎二号

04-24

META，微软，古狗

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0fd351eaeeaa2ea34fa138ca293cb57","width":"2000","height":"2000"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313599924174896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304393249169472,"gmtCreate":1715349262549,"gmtModify":1715349812688,"author":{"id":"3543245463218138","authorId":"3543245463218138","name":"流浪虎二号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fbd537d8ead26012bd22119962356e1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3543245463218138","authorIdStr":"3543245463218138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$&nbsp;</a> 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半导体双熊，INTEL和AMD[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304393249169472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299121772392752,"gmtCreate":1714052985357,"gmtModify":1714053572673,"author":{"id":"3543245463218138","authorId":"3543245463218138","name":"流浪虎二号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fbd537d8ead26012bd22119962356e1","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3543245463218138","authorIdStr":"3543245463218138"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"通用大模型快要成型了，硬件储备也厚，以后除了那几个超级巨头，堆不起硬件想玩大模型的大多得用META的服务吧，社交媒体属性比腾讯还强，短视频也不弱，保持稳定增长几乎是必然的，就这还暴跌？","listText":"通用大模型快要成型了，硬件储备也厚，以后除了那几个超级巨头，堆不起硬件想玩大模型的大多得用META的服务吧，社交媒体属性比腾讯还强，短视频也不弱，保持稳定增长几乎是必然的，就这还暴跌？","text":"通用大模型快要成型了，硬件储备也厚，以后除了那几个超级巨头，堆不起硬件想玩大模型的大多得用META的服务吧，社交媒体属性比腾讯还强，短视频也不弱，保持稳定增长几乎是必然的，就这还暴跌？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299121772392752","repostId":"1199291457","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199291457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1714036393,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199291457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-25 17:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199291457","media":"走马财经","summary":"下一个十年的核心将从内容分发转向内容生产，Meta很可能会是这一阶段的主导者。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五，Meta开盘暴跌近15%。财报发布前，本来对Meta这份财报充满期待，纳指这轮8%左右调整期间，我在496和490两次加仓，当时已经是我的美股第一次仓位，又在财报发布前一天489加仓，没想到财报不及预期 ……</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/957c94bc88566b3274fe00ed0683aab1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报发布前，华尔街分析师给的预期是：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度营收预期361.6亿刀，每股净利润预期4.32刀，二季度营收预期382.2亿刀</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而我个人给的预期是：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度营收预期375亿刀，每股净利润预期4.45刀，二季度预期380-410亿刀之间</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">结果，财报显示，Meta一季度营收364.6亿刀，每股净利润4.71刀，二季度预期365-390亿刀区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营收超过了华尔街分析师预期，但没超过管理层在去年Q4财报时给的预估上限370亿刀，也远低于我个人给的预期375亿刀；每股净利润超过了华尔街分析师和我个人的预测。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是公司表示2024年内将提高资本支出，从300-370亿刀提升到350-400亿刀，这将削弱每股净利润超预期带来的利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于市场对Meta的财报高期待，所以它需要至少超出业绩指引370亿刀上限，才可能满足市场预期，而二季度的业绩指引无疑也是令人失望的，这一指引的中值是377.5亿刀，低于华尔街分析师预期的388.2亿刀，更远低于我个人给的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果Meta的表现达到我给的预测范围，或者非常接近，我相信市场反应会是完全不同的，真是一份令人心碎的财报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二季度预期365-390亿刀，假设达到指引的上限390亿，环比也不过7%，2023年Q2的环比是11.7%，2021年Q2的环比是11.1%，2022年Q2环比增长3.3%，彼时的市场反应我们也见识过了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而如果二季度只达到指引的中值，意味着二季度环比增长只有3.5%，这将令华尔街颤抖，恐惧得颤抖，我们最好祈祷Meta二季度营收大幅超预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">继续看第一张图，利润率38%，虽然看绝对值还不错，但是结束了连续5个季度利润率环比提升的势头，也是隐忧之一；元宇宙利润继续拉胯，不知道何时能有盼头，隐忧之二。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三费开支（营销+研发+行政）160亿刀，环比仅下降0.35亿，营收环比下降了36.5亿，具体来看，研发和营销支出合计环比减少12亿刀，但行政开支环比增加了11.7亿刀，估计是一季度有额外的股权激励开支，但同比来看，行政开支也增加了约6亿刀，很可能是因为股价大幅上涨带来的股权激励成本显著上升，研发同比增加6亿而营销支出同比减少了5亿，总体来说三费开支虽然没有惊喜但算合理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">季度自由现金流来到125亿，过去12个月达到486亿，如果以当前股价计算估值大约1.05万亿美元，对应21.6倍DCF估值，如果剔除烧钱大户元宇宙项目过去12个月大约160亿刀的亏损，核心广告平台的DCF估值大约是16.25倍，个人觉得是偏低估的状态。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下面看看具体的业绩表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e146881643f0367caffbcd694b4ac0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">季度营收增速27.3%，创造过去10个季度增速最高值，大部分源于低基数，但也说明势头还行，364.6亿刀的营收，只能说中规中矩，市场期待值太高了，包括我个人也是预期太高，亏了只能认输苟住。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于二季度预期，我觉得365-390亿确实偏低了点，如果无法达到预估上限，那我会很失望。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa6b753771df936ccc9c9adac629cee\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从Meta历年的运营数据来看，2023年的用户数据有回春迹象，一季度只给了家族日活数据，日活达到创历史记录的32.4亿，环比增长0.5亿，同比增长2.2亿，增速7%，还是相当不错的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf7a49d95cab691cea7086ae231ab177\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平台整体的广告点击量增长了20%，与四季度增速基本持平，广告单次点击价格增速则连续5个季度环比提升，从低谷的-22%提升到了本季度的6%，这可能说明：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1.经济反弹带来的广告需求增长稳健 2.Instagram reels带来的视频化转型是成功的，不仅能带来广告库存增加，而且单价也开始提升</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39e0a05ce6669167fbe788af2c709d1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的净利润已经纳入了股权激励部分，所以是很有参考价值的，通常一季度是利润淡季，以2021年为例，2021年Q1主营业务广告分部的利润是132.1亿，占全年广告分部利润的23.2%，若以此推论，2024年Meta广告业务利润可能达到761.2亿，按照当前1.05万亿估值计算广告分部的PE大约13.8倍，我个人觉得是低估的状态。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a003c7604c781015aab2066b23d2874d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下面说说，我为什么看好Meta：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1.Meta已经基本克服了苹果和安卓隐私新政对平台广告业务带来的负面影响</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2.Meta家族APP基本克服了Tik Tok带来的恐惧，三个角度可以证明这一点：一是Meta家族APP日活、月活增速开始恢复；二是Instagram的下载量在2023年超越Tik Tok重回榜首，这是2019年后的第一次，数据来源于Sensor Tower；三是广告单价开始正增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3.Meta的视频化转型基本上成功了，而抖音带给我们的启示是，视频化平台的广告加载率、点击率和单价都会高于图文，Meta会长期受益，而Tik Tok的无常命运，只是增加了一点buff。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4.Meta在人工智能的投资让它处于有利位置。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于上述原因，我觉得Meta的复苏势头会延续，而且它的自由现金流没有减缓的迹象，随着大模型技术演进，多模态生成式人工智能落地，Meta的40亿全球用户，有机会以极低门槛创作高质量视频，这些功能将深度集成到Meta家族的旗舰APP，比如IG、FB、Messenger和WhatsApp等，用户只需要通过语音输入一段指令，就能生产极富想象力的视频内容，这将大大降低视频内容的制作门槛，扩大创作者群体范围，进而大幅提升内容消费的空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/715fc052415f88dc2f1c5a80d9f2007e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去5年，AI其实一直在深刻影响内容消费领域，主导者是字节跳动旗下的抖音和Tik Tok，它们主要发生在内容分发领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年以来，Meta投资了上百亿美金采购英伟达的H100芯片，它的初始目的原本是提升Instagram reels的内容推荐算法，追赶Tik Tok的步伐，没想到越买越多，不仅在内容推荐算法上补足了短板，而且无心插柳地做成了生成式人工智能领域的基础设施，Meta的目标是2024年底达到35万枚H100的部署能力，Llama3已经发布且将集成到家族APP的对话框顶部。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我倾向于相信，AI将继续影响内容消费领域，下一个十年的核心将从内容分发转向内容生产，Meta很可能会是这一阶段的主导者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它具备三大核心优势：</p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高达40亿的全球高频活跃用户，首屈一指且遥遥领先 2.全球前三的GPU储备量，可能仅次于微软 3.Llama很可能会取代Google成为生成式人工智能领域的最主流开放平台</p></li></ol></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google有类似的用户基础，但搜索不及社交高频，后者的对话输入框天然适合语音指令输入并生成内容，离消费者更近。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软同样缺乏Meta这样得天独厚的用户基础和内容消费场景。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">字节跳动可能是最具挑战性的，但它的GPU储备远远不及Meta，且用户规模和粘性仍不及Meta强劲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯与Meta情况最接近，但是GPU储备、技术储备、数据清洁程度都有所不及。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以总体来看，我对Meta的未来还是比较看好的，一次财报的miss并不改变大的趋势。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1613725107179","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-25 17:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwNjYxNDkwMA==&mid=2247491831&idx=1&sn=53920500ba2fa3e577f10c777aa0df80&chksm=971c58eca06bd1fa5ee5f2407f53e265e352b39be94078aaaac9cc1768ebb91d36229b78bb01&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0425mzKSw47UUuDjsJpJZZlZ&sharer_shareinfo=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba&sharer_shareinfo_first=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba#rd><strong>走马财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五，Meta开盘暴跌近15%。财报发布前，本来对Meta这份财报充满期待，纳指这轮8%左右调整期间，我在496和490两次加仓，当时已经是我的美股第一次仓位，又在财报发布前一天489加仓，没想到财报不及预期 ……财报发布前，华尔街分析师给的预期是：一季度营收预期361.6亿刀，每股净利润预期4.32刀，二季度营收预期382.2亿刀而我个人给的预期是：一季度营收预期375亿刀，每股净利润预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwNjYxNDkwMA==&mid=2247491831&idx=1&sn=53920500ba2fa3e577f10c777aa0df80&chksm=971c58eca06bd1fa5ee5f2407f53e265e352b39be94078aaaac9cc1768ebb91d36229b78bb01&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0425mzKSw47UUuDjsJpJZZlZ&sharer_shareinfo=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba&sharer_shareinfo_first=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5546e6a1e61039ce5b4b53b5027c513d","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwNjYxNDkwMA==&mid=2247491831&idx=1&sn=53920500ba2fa3e577f10c777aa0df80&chksm=971c58eca06bd1fa5ee5f2407f53e265e352b39be94078aaaac9cc1768ebb91d36229b78bb01&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0425mzKSw47UUuDjsJpJZZlZ&sharer_shareinfo=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba&sharer_shareinfo_first=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199291457","content_text":"周五，Meta开盘暴跌近15%。财报发布前，本来对Meta这份财报充满期待，纳指这轮8%左右调整期间，我在496和490两次加仓，当时已经是我的美股第一次仓位，又在财报发布前一天489加仓，没想到财报不及预期 ……财报发布前，华尔街分析师给的预期是：一季度营收预期361.6亿刀，每股净利润预期4.32刀，二季度营收预期382.2亿刀而我个人给的预期是：一季度营收预期375亿刀，每股净利润预期4.45刀，二季度预期380-410亿刀之间结果，财报显示，Meta一季度营收364.6亿刀，每股净利润4.71刀，二季度预期365-390亿刀区间。营收超过了华尔街分析师预期，但没超过管理层在去年Q4财报时给的预估上限370亿刀，也远低于我个人给的预期375亿刀；每股净利润超过了华尔街分析师和我个人的预测。但是公司表示2024年内将提高资本支出，从300-370亿刀提升到350-400亿刀，这将削弱每股净利润超预期带来的利好。由于市场对Meta的财报高期待，所以它需要至少超出业绩指引370亿刀上限，才可能满足市场预期，而二季度的业绩指引无疑也是令人失望的，这一指引的中值是377.5亿刀，低于华尔街分析师预期的388.2亿刀，更远低于我个人给的预期。如果Meta的表现达到我给的预测范围，或者非常接近，我相信市场反应会是完全不同的，真是一份令人心碎的财报。二季度预期365-390亿刀，假设达到指引的上限390亿，环比也不过7%，2023年Q2的环比是11.7%，2021年Q2的环比是11.1%，2022年Q2环比增长3.3%，彼时的市场反应我们也见识过了。而如果二季度只达到指引的中值，意味着二季度环比增长只有3.5%，这将令华尔街颤抖，恐惧得颤抖，我们最好祈祷Meta二季度营收大幅超预期。继续看第一张图，利润率38%，虽然看绝对值还不错，但是结束了连续5个季度利润率环比提升的势头，也是隐忧之一；元宇宙利润继续拉胯，不知道何时能有盼头，隐忧之二。三费开支（营销+研发+行政）160亿刀，环比仅下降0.35亿，营收环比下降了36.5亿，具体来看，研发和营销支出合计环比减少12亿刀，但行政开支环比增加了11.7亿刀，估计是一季度有额外的股权激励开支，但同比来看，行政开支也增加了约6亿刀，很可能是因为股价大幅上涨带来的股权激励成本显著上升，研发同比增加6亿而营销支出同比减少了5亿，总体来说三费开支虽然没有惊喜但算合理。季度自由现金流来到125亿，过去12个月达到486亿，如果以当前股价计算估值大约1.05万亿美元，对应21.6倍DCF估值，如果剔除烧钱大户元宇宙项目过去12个月大约160亿刀的亏损，核心广告平台的DCF估值大约是16.25倍，个人觉得是偏低估的状态。下面看看具体的业绩表现。季度营收增速27.3%，创造过去10个季度增速最高值，大部分源于低基数，但也说明势头还行，364.6亿刀的营收，只能说中规中矩，市场期待值太高了，包括我个人也是预期太高，亏了只能认输苟住。至于二季度预期，我觉得365-390亿确实偏低了点，如果无法达到预估上限，那我会很失望。从Meta历年的运营数据来看，2023年的用户数据有回春迹象，一季度只给了家族日活数据，日活达到创历史记录的32.4亿，环比增长0.5亿，同比增长2.2亿，增速7%，还是相当不错的。平台整体的广告点击量增长了20%，与四季度增速基本持平，广告单次点击价格增速则连续5个季度环比提升，从低谷的-22%提升到了本季度的6%，这可能说明：1.经济反弹带来的广告需求增长稳健 2.Instagram reels带来的视频化转型是成功的，不仅能带来广告库存增加，而且单价也开始提升Meta的净利润已经纳入了股权激励部分，所以是很有参考价值的，通常一季度是利润淡季，以2021年为例，2021年Q1主营业务广告分部的利润是132.1亿，占全年广告分部利润的23.2%，若以此推论，2024年Meta广告业务利润可能达到761.2亿，按照当前1.05万亿估值计算广告分部的PE大约13.8倍，我个人觉得是低估的状态。下面说说，我为什么看好Meta：1.Meta已经基本克服了苹果和安卓隐私新政对平台广告业务带来的负面影响2.Meta家族APP基本克服了Tik Tok带来的恐惧，三个角度可以证明这一点：一是Meta家族APP日活、月活增速开始恢复；二是Instagram的下载量在2023年超越Tik Tok重回榜首，这是2019年后的第一次，数据来源于Sensor Tower；三是广告单价开始正增长。3.Meta的视频化转型基本上成功了，而抖音带给我们的启示是，视频化平台的广告加载率、点击率和单价都会高于图文，Meta会长期受益，而Tik Tok的无常命运，只是增加了一点buff。4.Meta在人工智能的投资让它处于有利位置。基于上述原因，我觉得Meta的复苏势头会延续，而且它的自由现金流没有减缓的迹象，随着大模型技术演进，多模态生成式人工智能落地，Meta的40亿全球用户，有机会以极低门槛创作高质量视频，这些功能将深度集成到Meta家族的旗舰APP，比如IG、FB、Messenger和WhatsApp等，用户只需要通过语音输入一段指令，就能生产极富想象力的视频内容，这将大大降低视频内容的制作门槛，扩大创作者群体范围，进而大幅提升内容消费的空间。过去5年，AI其实一直在深刻影响内容消费领域，主导者是字节跳动旗下的抖音和Tik Tok，它们主要发生在内容分发领域。2021年以来，Meta投资了上百亿美金采购英伟达的H100芯片，它的初始目的原本是提升Instagram reels的内容推荐算法，追赶Tik Tok的步伐，没想到越买越多，不仅在内容推荐算法上补足了短板，而且无心插柳地做成了生成式人工智能领域的基础设施，Meta的目标是2024年底达到35万枚H100的部署能力，Llama3已经发布且将集成到家族APP的对话框顶部。我倾向于相信，AI将继续影响内容消费领域，下一个十年的核心将从内容分发转向内容生产，Meta很可能会是这一阶段的主导者。它具备三大核心优势：高达40亿的全球高频活跃用户，首屈一指且遥遥领先 2.全球前三的GPU储备量，可能仅次于微软 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