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gracez
2022-04-25
是啊,a股啥时候能回来啊!
再论美股下跌!4月以来缘何持续回调?
gracez
2022-02-09
多谢费心为散户考虑,我们自己长脑子,不需要别人告诉我们怎么做
财报前瞻 | AMC院线被指一文不值,散户和高管将成最大空头
gracez
2021-10-29
换个马甲就以为别人认不出你了吗?
Facebook直接改名元宇宙!满仓虚拟现实
gracez
2021-10-28
$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$
$Phunware Inc(PHUNW)$
请教,有知道phunw的行权价吗?谢谢
gracez
2021-09-28
$AMC院线(AMC)$
其实亚洲市场占据amc额度量非常少,老虎这样打压言论,吃香太难看了。有意思吗?
gracez
2021-09-15
$AMC院线(AMC)$
买更多
gracez
2021-06-26
Fool
3 Reasons to Sell AMC Stock Right Now
gracez
2021-06-22
$AMC院线(AMC)$
为什么不让发?
gracez
2021-06-22
$AMC院线(AMC)$
重点观察昨天没有暴跌的号称meme股票的成员,expr,wish,mvis,bbby,así,rblx。远离
gracez
2021-06-21
$AMC院线(AMC)$
无聊,每周都是一样的表演,睡觉了
gracez
2021-06-13
$AMC院线(AMC)$
请教,老虎上看到的未平仓数仅是老虎的,还是整个市场的?谢谢[抱拳]
gracez
2021-06-12
$AMC院线(AMC)$
冲过50,加油
gracez
2021-06-04
$AMC院线(AMC)$
全仓坚持,一定会回去的
gracez
2021-06-03
$AMC院线(AMC)$
>400%,mark
gracez
2021-05-28
$AMC院线(AMC)$
200%了
gracez
2021-05-27
$AMC院线(AMC)$
Mark, my first 100%
gracez
2021-05-21
$AMC院线(AMC)$
好好跌,让我行权
gracez
2021-05-15
$UWM Holdings Corporation(UWMC)$
卖空参考利率超100%了,加油
gracez
2021-05-13
$AMC院线(AMC)$
提醒持有amc的猿类一句,当ss发生时,hf可能会抛售手中其他资产回补,最近可以考虑整合手中资产,避免损失。
gracez
2021-05-12
$AMC院线(AMC)$
我其实一直有一个疑问,再现在借贷利率这么高的情况下,为什么还要做空?如果是为了将手里大量的空单平仓打压股价,我能理解。如果不是,为什么不做多呢?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"再论美股下跌!4月以来缘何持续回调?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121996375","media":"中金宏观","summary":"4月以来美股持续回调,三大股指中纳斯达克跌幅最大,且已逼近前期低点。与年初相比,最近的下跌有何不同?背后的宏观逻辑有什么变化?对此我们进行了分析,得到以下结论:1) 宏观上,当前世界经济正面临202","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月以来美股持续回调,三大股指中纳斯达克跌幅最大,且已逼近前期低点。与年初相比,最近的下跌有何不同?背后的宏观逻辑有什么变化?对此我们进行了分析,得到以下结论:</p><blockquote>1) 宏观上,当前世界经济正面临2020年新冠疫情以来最严峻的挑战。疫情冲击,通胀冲击,俄乌事件冲击三股逆风叠加,经济前景不确定性陡增。</blockquote><blockquote>2) 政策上,美联储释放更明确的货币紧缩信号,加息与“缩表”都将提速。美元走强,美债收益率上升,金融条件收紧,全球资本市场波动加剧。</blockquote><blockquote>3) 预期上,市场担心美联储紧缩引发经济“硬着陆”,带来衰退。这次美联储误判通胀,加息起步晚,紧缩节奏快,想要避免衰退难度不小。</blockquote><blockquote>4) 往前看,美股下跌的宏观逻辑或从货币紧缩转向对全球经济增长的担忧。这意味着市场调整还未结束,“股债双杀”仍将是主旋律。</blockquote><p><b>以下是我们的详细分析:</b></p><p><b>首先,当前世界经济正面临2020年新冠疫情以来最严峻的挑战。一是俄乌事件对全球尤其是欧洲经济的冲击。</b>俄乌事件对全球经济具有“滞胀”效应,其中对欧洲经济影响最大,这是因为欧洲国家与俄乌两国的经贸往来更密切(图表1)。俄乌事件不仅加剧欧洲供应链瓶颈,加大原油、天然气、煤炭供给约束,由此带来的进口价格上涨还导致欧元区贸易条件恶化(图表2),削弱企业和居民的信心(图表3、图表4)。我们此前下调了对2022年欧元区GDP增速的预测一个百分点至2.5%,我们认为欧元区经济前景面临较大不确定性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c190f2953a2280561b446fd84834a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f74963c5c9b3665efaeb21d5a036a92\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>二是通胀抬升、尤其是粮食价格大涨对新兴市场的冲击。</b>我们统计了全球范围内CPI通胀高于5%的国家的数量。截止今年3月,在已统计的全球94个国家中,有71个国家通胀高于5%,占比75%。其中,30个发达国家中,有22个国家通胀高于5%,占比73%;64个发展中国家中,有49个国家通胀高于5%,占比76%(图表5)。这里我们只统计了CPI增速,如果看PPI增速,还要更高。总之,<b>现在全球大多数国家和地区都处在高通胀的环境下。</b></p><p>高通胀有何影响?这里需要区分通胀是内生的还是外生的。如果是内生的,总需求过热引发通胀,那么劳动者工资收入上升能够对冲一部分物价上涨的损失。但如果是外生的,供给收缩导致通胀,同时劳动者工资收入上升较少,那么实际收入就会下降,消费支出将受到抑制。目前来看,除美国等少数国家总需求较热以外,其他国家和地区的通胀多数都与供给收缩尤其是大宗商品供给短缺有关。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceea6ae88a9c3e093d89a97492eb3840\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>一个特别需求关注的是粮食价格大涨。历史表明,粮价大涨容易制造社会不安全不稳定因素。</b>根据联合国粮食署的报告,受俄乌事件影响,3月世界食品价格上涨近13%,创下历史新高(图表6)。其中,谷物价格指数攀升17%,植物油指数大幅上升23%,均创下了迄今为止的最高读数。上一次粮价创新高是在2011-12年,当时一些中东地区国家爆发了社会运动,引发社会混乱。在上周举行的IMF春季年会上,IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃等人士也强调,高通胀对经济基本面薄弱、政策空间有限的国家具有更大威胁。</p><p><b>三是疫情反弹对经济运行的影响。</b>自去年12月以来,Omicron疫情在全球蔓延,Omicron传染性更高,隐蔽性更强,对疫情防控带来很大挑战。今年3月以来,中国多地出现Omicron疫情散发,对线下密接型、聚集型消费形成影响,货运物流、建筑施工也受到较大影响。从这次疫情影响的范围看,影响是相对较大的,一个证据是有新增确诊病例的地级市GDP占比一度接近40%,为过去两年的最高水平。尽管中国“稳增长”政策也在积极发力,但经济增长还是会受到一些拖累,这对其他国家、尤其是周边国家会产生一定外溢作用。</p><p><b>在政策面上,美联储加快货币紧缩,加息和“缩表”都将提速。</b>在IMF春季年会上,美联储主席鲍威尔在谈及美国经济与货币政策时指出,美国劳动力市场“太热了”(it’s too hot),美联储需要降低供需缺口,使通胀回到2%的长期目标。鲍威尔也暗示,将在未来议息会议上考虑加息50个基点,这与我们关于美联储将于5月和6月“背靠背”各加息50个基点的判断一致。另外美联储大概率于5月官宣“缩表”,美国货币很快就将进入“量价双紧”时代。</p><p><b>一种观点认为,历史上美联储加息初期美股都是上涨的,所以这次也不用担心。我们认为,这种看法未免有些“刻舟求剑”。</b>与之前相比,这次加息的一个不同是加息开始时通胀太高,实际利率太低,美联储不得不加快紧缩(图表7、图表8)。为什么会这样?一个原因是美联储去年误判了通胀,错误地认为通胀是暂时的,没有及时退出货币宽松。结果是长期的低利率导致需求过热,通胀越来越高。事到如今,美联储只能加快紧缩,以此来弥补去年犯下的错误。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9644133019bc618acd87aa5e4acd2a9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/191ccc3bdb533c531760855dbd03c1ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美联储加快紧缩,带来“股债双杀”。</b>年初以来美债利率持续上行,10年期美债收益率已升至接近3%的水平,美债的投资回报也创出过去四十年最差开局(图表9)。美股方面,年初以来三大股指悉数下跌,虽然在3月中下旬有所反弹,但很快又重回跌势。我们在1月报告《美国下跌的宏观逻辑》中指出,<b>水能载舟,亦能覆舟,过去两年美股上涨与美联储大幅宽松货币有很大关系</b>,一个证据是美股上涨的幅度与美联储资产负债表扩张幅度相匹配(图表10)。往前看,我们认为,如果美联储“缩表”,流动性萎缩,美股尤其是高估值股票或将承受压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/273c2d007d2887d45a28fa8e4f8677b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>对货币紧缩的另一个担忧是美国经济能否承受?历史表明,联储加息往往会引发经济衰退。</b>自1960年至今,美国共有11轮加息周期,其中只有3次实现了经济“软着陆”,即加息结束后没有出现衰退。这3次分别发生在1965年、1984年、1994年(图表11)。为什么加息引发经济衰退?一个原因是加息导致金融条件收紧,加大总需求下行压力,总需求出现萎缩即被视为衰退。那为何又有三次“软着陆”?这次是否也能实现“软着陆”?我们分析后发现,之前三次“软着陆”有一个共同特征,美联储加息都是“先发制人”,在通胀还未高企时果断采取行动,将通胀扼杀在摇篮之中。相比之下,<b>这次美联储加息起步太晚,且紧缩节奏较快,要想实现“软着陆”恐怕需要一些运气,而这也是市场最担心的地方。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e68cf20626d33a53d30fff90fa6a400\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>有观点认为,对经济衰退的担忧会导致美联储放缓加息,利好股市。我们认为,这种看法有一厢情愿、本末倒置的嫌疑。</b>首先,美联储不会很快放弃紧缩,因为在防通胀和稳增长之间,眼下更为重要的是防通胀,如果通胀得不到控制,美国经济也不可能实现可持续增长。高通胀限制了美联储宽松的空间,在通胀风险消退前,美联储货币政策不大可能自发转向。退一步讲,即使美联储因为看到衰退迹象而放缓加息,那么资产价格大概率也已经调整过了。所以不能简单认为未来总有一天加息会放缓,就不用担心眼前的风险,这种“躺平”的想法并不可取。</p><p><b>综上,美股下跌的宏观逻辑或已较年初发生变化——从货币紧缩转向了对经济前景的担忧。</b>美国企业盈利不仅取决于美国经济本身,也取决于全球经济走势,这是因为许多美国企业(尤其是跨国公司)的利润来自美国以外的国家和地区。当全球经济遭遇逆风时,美国企业盈利也会受损,对美股也是利空因素。一个例子是2018年中美贸易摩擦,导致美国企业海外利润增速下滑,而当时美联储也在加息和“缩表”,与眼下有一定相似之处。2018年第四季度全球经济走弱的趋势愈发明显,美债利率曲线倒挂,美股则出现大幅下跌。由此可见,<b>今年以来的市场调整可能还未结束,“股债双杀”仍将是主旋律。美债收益率仍有上行空间,美股存在跌破3月低点的可能性(Lower low)。</b></p><p><b>上周回顾:宏观数据与经济事件</b></p><p><b>宏观数据:</b>美国3月年化新屋开工总数为179.3万户,高于预期值174.5万户;3月年化成屋销售总数为577万户,低于预期值580万户;3月营建许可总数为187.3万户,高于预期值182.5万户;3月谘商会领先指标环比增长0.3%,与预期值一致;4月Markit制造业PMI初值为59.7,高于预期值58.2;4月Markit服务业初值为54.7,低于预期值58;4月费城联储制造业指数17.6,低于预期值21;4月NAHB房产指数为77,与预期值一致。</p><p>欧元区2月季调后贸易账赤字为94亿欧元;2月季调后经常账为207.97亿欧元;2月工业产出环比增长0.7%,与预期值一致;3月CPI同比增速终值为7.4%,低于预期值7.5%;3月CPI环比增长2.4%,低于预期值2.5%;4月制造业PMI初值为55.3,高于预期值54.7。英国3月季调后零售销售环比降低1.4%,高于预期降速0.3%;4月制造业PMI为55.3,高于预期值54;4月服务业PMI为58.3,低于预期值60;Gfk消费者信心指数为-38,低于预期值-33。</p><p><b>经济事件:</b>4月19日,2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话,他表示美国的通胀“太高了”,重申了年底前将利率上调至3.5%的观点,以减缓目前处于40年高位的通胀率[4]。4月22日,美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德参与IMF举办的关于全球经济的小组讨论,鲍威尔表示美联储将计划加息50基点,拉加德表示欧洲央行在控制通胀方面不会像美联储那样积极[5];欧洲央行行长拉加德在彼得森国际经济研究所组织的“宏观经济周”上发表讲话,她要求决策者在未来几天内不要对决策持不同意见[6]。</p><p><b>本周关注:宏观数据与经济事件</b></p><p><b>宏观数据:</b>周一公布美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数。周二公布美国2月FHFA房价指数环比增速,2月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数同比增速,3月耐用品订单环比增速,3月年化新屋销售总数,4月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数,4月谘商会消费者信心指数。周三公布美国3月成屋签约销售指数环比增速。周四公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化环比增速初值,第一季度实际个人消费支出环比增速初值,第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化环比增速初值,至4月23日当周初请失业金人数;欧元区4月经济景气指数,4月工业景气指数,4月消费者信心指数终值。周五公布美国3月核心PCE物价指数同比增速,3月核心PCE物价指数环比增速,3月个人支出环比增速,4月芝加哥PMI,4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值;欧元区第一季度GDP同比增速初值,4月CPI同比增速初值,4月CPI环比增速。</p><p><b>经济事件:</b>周三,国际清算银行、英国央行、欧洲央行和IMF召开关于“复苏不完全和分化背景下的全球新挑战”联合虚拟会议。周四欧洲央行公布经济公报。</p><p><img 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n再论美股下跌!4月以来缘何持续回调?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083231139\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-25 15:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月以来美股持续回调,三大股指中纳斯达克跌幅最大,且已逼近前期低点。与年初相比,最近的下跌有何不同?背后的宏观逻辑有什么变化?对此我们进行了分析,得到以下结论:</p><blockquote>1) 宏观上,当前世界经济正面临2020年新冠疫情以来最严峻的挑战。疫情冲击,通胀冲击,俄乌事件冲击三股逆风叠加,经济前景不确定性陡增。</blockquote><blockquote>2) 政策上,美联储释放更明确的货币紧缩信号,加息与“缩表”都将提速。美元走强,美债收益率上升,金融条件收紧,全球资本市场波动加剧。</blockquote><blockquote>3) 预期上,市场担心美联储紧缩引发经济“硬着陆”,带来衰退。这次美联储误判通胀,加息起步晚,紧缩节奏快,想要避免衰退难度不小。</blockquote><blockquote>4) 往前看,美股下跌的宏观逻辑或从货币紧缩转向对全球经济增长的担忧。这意味着市场调整还未结束,“股债双杀”仍将是主旋律。</blockquote><p><b>以下是我们的详细分析:</b></p><p><b>首先,当前世界经济正面临2020年新冠疫情以来最严峻的挑战。一是俄乌事件对全球尤其是欧洲经济的冲击。</b>俄乌事件对全球经济具有“滞胀”效应,其中对欧洲经济影响最大,这是因为欧洲国家与俄乌两国的经贸往来更密切(图表1)。俄乌事件不仅加剧欧洲供应链瓶颈,加大原油、天然气、煤炭供给约束,由此带来的进口价格上涨还导致欧元区贸易条件恶化(图表2),削弱企业和居民的信心(图表3、图表4)。我们此前下调了对2022年欧元区GDP增速的预测一个百分点至2.5%,我们认为欧元区经济前景面临较大不确定性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30c190f2953a2280561b446fd84834a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f74963c5c9b3665efaeb21d5a036a92\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>二是通胀抬升、尤其是粮食价格大涨对新兴市场的冲击。</b>我们统计了全球范围内CPI通胀高于5%的国家的数量。截止今年3月,在已统计的全球94个国家中,有71个国家通胀高于5%,占比75%。其中,30个发达国家中,有22个国家通胀高于5%,占比73%;64个发展中国家中,有49个国家通胀高于5%,占比76%(图表5)。这里我们只统计了CPI增速,如果看PPI增速,还要更高。总之,<b>现在全球大多数国家和地区都处在高通胀的环境下。</b></p><p>高通胀有何影响?这里需要区分通胀是内生的还是外生的。如果是内生的,总需求过热引发通胀,那么劳动者工资收入上升能够对冲一部分物价上涨的损失。但如果是外生的,供给收缩导致通胀,同时劳动者工资收入上升较少,那么实际收入就会下降,消费支出将受到抑制。目前来看,除美国等少数国家总需求较热以外,其他国家和地区的通胀多数都与供给收缩尤其是大宗商品供给短缺有关。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceea6ae88a9c3e093d89a97492eb3840\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>一个特别需求关注的是粮食价格大涨。历史表明,粮价大涨容易制造社会不安全不稳定因素。</b>根据联合国粮食署的报告,受俄乌事件影响,3月世界食品价格上涨近13%,创下历史新高(图表6)。其中,谷物价格指数攀升17%,植物油指数大幅上升23%,均创下了迄今为止的最高读数。上一次粮价创新高是在2011-12年,当时一些中东地区国家爆发了社会运动,引发社会混乱。在上周举行的IMF春季年会上,IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃等人士也强调,高通胀对经济基本面薄弱、政策空间有限的国家具有更大威胁。</p><p><b>三是疫情反弹对经济运行的影响。</b>自去年12月以来,Omicron疫情在全球蔓延,Omicron传染性更高,隐蔽性更强,对疫情防控带来很大挑战。今年3月以来,中国多地出现Omicron疫情散发,对线下密接型、聚集型消费形成影响,货运物流、建筑施工也受到较大影响。从这次疫情影响的范围看,影响是相对较大的,一个证据是有新增确诊病例的地级市GDP占比一度接近40%,为过去两年的最高水平。尽管中国“稳增长”政策也在积极发力,但经济增长还是会受到一些拖累,这对其他国家、尤其是周边国家会产生一定外溢作用。</p><p><b>在政策面上,美联储加快货币紧缩,加息和“缩表”都将提速。</b>在IMF春季年会上,美联储主席鲍威尔在谈及美国经济与货币政策时指出,美国劳动力市场“太热了”(it’s too hot),美联储需要降低供需缺口,使通胀回到2%的长期目标。鲍威尔也暗示,将在未来议息会议上考虑加息50个基点,这与我们关于美联储将于5月和6月“背靠背”各加息50个基点的判断一致。另外美联储大概率于5月官宣“缩表”,美国货币很快就将进入“量价双紧”时代。</p><p><b>一种观点认为,历史上美联储加息初期美股都是上涨的,所以这次也不用担心。我们认为,这种看法未免有些“刻舟求剑”。</b>与之前相比,这次加息的一个不同是加息开始时通胀太高,实际利率太低,美联储不得不加快紧缩(图表7、图表8)。为什么会这样?一个原因是美联储去年误判了通胀,错误地认为通胀是暂时的,没有及时退出货币宽松。结果是长期的低利率导致需求过热,通胀越来越高。事到如今,美联储只能加快紧缩,以此来弥补去年犯下的错误。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9644133019bc618acd87aa5e4acd2a9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/191ccc3bdb533c531760855dbd03c1ad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>美联储加快紧缩,带来“股债双杀”。</b>年初以来美债利率持续上行,10年期美债收益率已升至接近3%的水平,美债的投资回报也创出过去四十年最差开局(图表9)。美股方面,年初以来三大股指悉数下跌,虽然在3月中下旬有所反弹,但很快又重回跌势。我们在1月报告《美国下跌的宏观逻辑》中指出,<b>水能载舟,亦能覆舟,过去两年美股上涨与美联储大幅宽松货币有很大关系</b>,一个证据是美股上涨的幅度与美联储资产负债表扩张幅度相匹配(图表10)。往前看,我们认为,如果美联储“缩表”,流动性萎缩,美股尤其是高估值股票或将承受压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/273c2d007d2887d45a28fa8e4f8677b1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>对货币紧缩的另一个担忧是美国经济能否承受?历史表明,联储加息往往会引发经济衰退。</b>自1960年至今,美国共有11轮加息周期,其中只有3次实现了经济“软着陆”,即加息结束后没有出现衰退。这3次分别发生在1965年、1984年、1994年(图表11)。为什么加息引发经济衰退?一个原因是加息导致金融条件收紧,加大总需求下行压力,总需求出现萎缩即被视为衰退。那为何又有三次“软着陆”?这次是否也能实现“软着陆”?我们分析后发现,之前三次“软着陆”有一个共同特征,美联储加息都是“先发制人”,在通胀还未高企时果断采取行动,将通胀扼杀在摇篮之中。相比之下,<b>这次美联储加息起步太晚,且紧缩节奏较快,要想实现“软着陆”恐怕需要一些运气,而这也是市场最担心的地方。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e68cf20626d33a53d30fff90fa6a400\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>有观点认为,对经济衰退的担忧会导致美联储放缓加息,利好股市。我们认为,这种看法有一厢情愿、本末倒置的嫌疑。</b>首先,美联储不会很快放弃紧缩,因为在防通胀和稳增长之间,眼下更为重要的是防通胀,如果通胀得不到控制,美国经济也不可能实现可持续增长。高通胀限制了美联储宽松的空间,在通胀风险消退前,美联储货币政策不大可能自发转向。退一步讲,即使美联储因为看到衰退迹象而放缓加息,那么资产价格大概率也已经调整过了。所以不能简单认为未来总有一天加息会放缓,就不用担心眼前的风险,这种“躺平”的想法并不可取。</p><p><b>综上,美股下跌的宏观逻辑或已较年初发生变化——从货币紧缩转向了对经济前景的担忧。</b>美国企业盈利不仅取决于美国经济本身,也取决于全球经济走势,这是因为许多美国企业(尤其是跨国公司)的利润来自美国以外的国家和地区。当全球经济遭遇逆风时,美国企业盈利也会受损,对美股也是利空因素。一个例子是2018年中美贸易摩擦,导致美国企业海外利润增速下滑,而当时美联储也在加息和“缩表”,与眼下有一定相似之处。2018年第四季度全球经济走弱的趋势愈发明显,美债利率曲线倒挂,美股则出现大幅下跌。由此可见,<b>今年以来的市场调整可能还未结束,“股债双杀”仍将是主旋律。美债收益率仍有上行空间,美股存在跌破3月低点的可能性(Lower low)。</b></p><p><b>上周回顾:宏观数据与经济事件</b></p><p><b>宏观数据:</b>美国3月年化新屋开工总数为179.3万户,高于预期值174.5万户;3月年化成屋销售总数为577万户,低于预期值580万户;3月营建许可总数为187.3万户,高于预期值182.5万户;3月谘商会领先指标环比增长0.3%,与预期值一致;4月Markit制造业PMI初值为59.7,高于预期值58.2;4月Markit服务业初值为54.7,低于预期值58;4月费城联储制造业指数17.6,低于预期值21;4月NAHB房产指数为77,与预期值一致。</p><p>欧元区2月季调后贸易账赤字为94亿欧元;2月季调后经常账为207.97亿欧元;2月工业产出环比增长0.7%,与预期值一致;3月CPI同比增速终值为7.4%,低于预期值7.5%;3月CPI环比增长2.4%,低于预期值2.5%;4月制造业PMI初值为55.3,高于预期值54.7。英国3月季调后零售销售环比降低1.4%,高于预期降速0.3%;4月制造业PMI为55.3,高于预期值54;4月服务业PMI为58.3,低于预期值60;Gfk消费者信心指数为-38,低于预期值-33。</p><p><b>经济事件:</b>4月19日,2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话,他表示美国的通胀“太高了”,重申了年底前将利率上调至3.5%的观点,以减缓目前处于40年高位的通胀率[4]。4月22日,美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德参与IMF举办的关于全球经济的小组讨论,鲍威尔表示美联储将计划加息50基点,拉加德表示欧洲央行在控制通胀方面不会像美联储那样积极[5];欧洲央行行长拉加德在彼得森国际经济研究所组织的“宏观经济周”上发表讲话,她要求决策者在未来几天内不要对决策持不同意见[6]。</p><p><b>本周关注:宏观数据与经济事件</b></p><p><b>宏观数据:</b>周一公布美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数。周二公布美国2月FHFA房价指数环比增速,2月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数同比增速,3月耐用品订单环比增速,3月年化新屋销售总数,4月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数,4月谘商会消费者信心指数。周三公布美国3月成屋签约销售指数环比增速。周四公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化环比增速初值,第一季度实际个人消费支出环比增速初值,第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化环比增速初值,至4月23日当周初请失业金人数;欧元区4月经济景气指数,4月工业景气指数,4月消费者信心指数终值。周五公布美国3月核心PCE物价指数同比增速,3月核心PCE物价指数环比增速,3月个人支出环比增速,4月芝加哥PMI,4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值;欧元区第一季度GDP同比增速初值,4月CPI同比增速初值,4月CPI环比增速。</p><p><b>经济事件:</b>周三,国际清算银行、英国央行、欧洲央行和IMF召开关于“复苏不完全和分化背景下的全球新挑战”联合虚拟会议。周四欧洲央行公布经济公报。</p><p><img 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width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8d7f3d18665c23e2f0a6ad188912722\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1522a30357a5dfff53676a9838f7b84a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5ea4391b7dc4dd49848819914c4db16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eb07e537fcaa858215ca241c74f4ede\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30128e2b583ff28458e6442ea93415d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121996375","content_text":"4月以来美股持续回调,三大股指中纳斯达克跌幅最大,且已逼近前期低点。与年初相比,最近的下跌有何不同?背后的宏观逻辑有什么变化?对此我们进行了分析,得到以下结论:1) 宏观上,当前世界经济正面临2020年新冠疫情以来最严峻的挑战。疫情冲击,通胀冲击,俄乌事件冲击三股逆风叠加,经济前景不确定性陡增。2) 政策上,美联储释放更明确的货币紧缩信号,加息与“缩表”都将提速。美元走强,美债收益率上升,金融条件收紧,全球资本市场波动加剧。3) 预期上,市场担心美联储紧缩引发经济“硬着陆”,带来衰退。这次美联储误判通胀,加息起步晚,紧缩节奏快,想要避免衰退难度不小。4) 往前看,美股下跌的宏观逻辑或从货币紧缩转向对全球经济增长的担忧。这意味着市场调整还未结束,“股债双杀”仍将是主旋律。以下是我们的详细分析:首先,当前世界经济正面临2020年新冠疫情以来最严峻的挑战。一是俄乌事件对全球尤其是欧洲经济的冲击。俄乌事件对全球经济具有“滞胀”效应,其中对欧洲经济影响最大,这是因为欧洲国家与俄乌两国的经贸往来更密切(图表1)。俄乌事件不仅加剧欧洲供应链瓶颈,加大原油、天然气、煤炭供给约束,由此带来的进口价格上涨还导致欧元区贸易条件恶化(图表2),削弱企业和居民的信心(图表3、图表4)。我们此前下调了对2022年欧元区GDP增速的预测一个百分点至2.5%,我们认为欧元区经济前景面临较大不确定性。二是通胀抬升、尤其是粮食价格大涨对新兴市场的冲击。我们统计了全球范围内CPI通胀高于5%的国家的数量。截止今年3月,在已统计的全球94个国家中,有71个国家通胀高于5%,占比75%。其中,30个发达国家中,有22个国家通胀高于5%,占比73%;64个发展中国家中,有49个国家通胀高于5%,占比76%(图表5)。这里我们只统计了CPI增速,如果看PPI增速,还要更高。总之,现在全球大多数国家和地区都处在高通胀的环境下。高通胀有何影响?这里需要区分通胀是内生的还是外生的。如果是内生的,总需求过热引发通胀,那么劳动者工资收入上升能够对冲一部分物价上涨的损失。但如果是外生的,供给收缩导致通胀,同时劳动者工资收入上升较少,那么实际收入就会下降,消费支出将受到抑制。目前来看,除美国等少数国家总需求较热以外,其他国家和地区的通胀多数都与供给收缩尤其是大宗商品供给短缺有关。一个特别需求关注的是粮食价格大涨。历史表明,粮价大涨容易制造社会不安全不稳定因素。根据联合国粮食署的报告,受俄乌事件影响,3月世界食品价格上涨近13%,创下历史新高(图表6)。其中,谷物价格指数攀升17%,植物油指数大幅上升23%,均创下了迄今为止的最高读数。上一次粮价创新高是在2011-12年,当时一些中东地区国家爆发了社会运动,引发社会混乱。在上周举行的IMF春季年会上,IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃等人士也强调,高通胀对经济基本面薄弱、政策空间有限的国家具有更大威胁。三是疫情反弹对经济运行的影响。自去年12月以来,Omicron疫情在全球蔓延,Omicron传染性更高,隐蔽性更强,对疫情防控带来很大挑战。今年3月以来,中国多地出现Omicron疫情散发,对线下密接型、聚集型消费形成影响,货运物流、建筑施工也受到较大影响。从这次疫情影响的范围看,影响是相对较大的,一个证据是有新增确诊病例的地级市GDP占比一度接近40%,为过去两年的最高水平。尽管中国“稳增长”政策也在积极发力,但经济增长还是会受到一些拖累,这对其他国家、尤其是周边国家会产生一定外溢作用。在政策面上,美联储加快货币紧缩,加息和“缩表”都将提速。在IMF春季年会上,美联储主席鲍威尔在谈及美国经济与货币政策时指出,美国劳动力市场“太热了”(it’s too hot),美联储需要降低供需缺口,使通胀回到2%的长期目标。鲍威尔也暗示,将在未来议息会议上考虑加息50个基点,这与我们关于美联储将于5月和6月“背靠背”各加息50个基点的判断一致。另外美联储大概率于5月官宣“缩表”,美国货币很快就将进入“量价双紧”时代。一种观点认为,历史上美联储加息初期美股都是上涨的,所以这次也不用担心。我们认为,这种看法未免有些“刻舟求剑”。与之前相比,这次加息的一个不同是加息开始时通胀太高,实际利率太低,美联储不得不加快紧缩(图表7、图表8)。为什么会这样?一个原因是美联储去年误判了通胀,错误地认为通胀是暂时的,没有及时退出货币宽松。结果是长期的低利率导致需求过热,通胀越来越高。事到如今,美联储只能加快紧缩,以此来弥补去年犯下的错误。美联储加快紧缩,带来“股债双杀”。年初以来美债利率持续上行,10年期美债收益率已升至接近3%的水平,美债的投资回报也创出过去四十年最差开局(图表9)。美股方面,年初以来三大股指悉数下跌,虽然在3月中下旬有所反弹,但很快又重回跌势。我们在1月报告《美国下跌的宏观逻辑》中指出,水能载舟,亦能覆舟,过去两年美股上涨与美联储大幅宽松货币有很大关系,一个证据是美股上涨的幅度与美联储资产负债表扩张幅度相匹配(图表10)。往前看,我们认为,如果美联储“缩表”,流动性萎缩,美股尤其是高估值股票或将承受压力。对货币紧缩的另一个担忧是美国经济能否承受?历史表明,联储加息往往会引发经济衰退。自1960年至今,美国共有11轮加息周期,其中只有3次实现了经济“软着陆”,即加息结束后没有出现衰退。这3次分别发生在1965年、1984年、1994年(图表11)。为什么加息引发经济衰退?一个原因是加息导致金融条件收紧,加大总需求下行压力,总需求出现萎缩即被视为衰退。那为何又有三次“软着陆”?这次是否也能实现“软着陆”?我们分析后发现,之前三次“软着陆”有一个共同特征,美联储加息都是“先发制人”,在通胀还未高企时果断采取行动,将通胀扼杀在摇篮之中。相比之下,这次美联储加息起步太晚,且紧缩节奏较快,要想实现“软着陆”恐怕需要一些运气,而这也是市场最担心的地方。有观点认为,对经济衰退的担忧会导致美联储放缓加息,利好股市。我们认为,这种看法有一厢情愿、本末倒置的嫌疑。首先,美联储不会很快放弃紧缩,因为在防通胀和稳增长之间,眼下更为重要的是防通胀,如果通胀得不到控制,美国经济也不可能实现可持续增长。高通胀限制了美联储宽松的空间,在通胀风险消退前,美联储货币政策不大可能自发转向。退一步讲,即使美联储因为看到衰退迹象而放缓加息,那么资产价格大概率也已经调整过了。所以不能简单认为未来总有一天加息会放缓,就不用担心眼前的风险,这种“躺平”的想法并不可取。综上,美股下跌的宏观逻辑或已较年初发生变化——从货币紧缩转向了对经济前景的担忧。美国企业盈利不仅取决于美国经济本身,也取决于全球经济走势,这是因为许多美国企业(尤其是跨国公司)的利润来自美国以外的国家和地区。当全球经济遭遇逆风时,美国企业盈利也会受损,对美股也是利空因素。一个例子是2018年中美贸易摩擦,导致美国企业海外利润增速下滑,而当时美联储也在加息和“缩表”,与眼下有一定相似之处。2018年第四季度全球经济走弱的趋势愈发明显,美债利率曲线倒挂,美股则出现大幅下跌。由此可见,今年以来的市场调整可能还未结束,“股债双杀”仍将是主旋律。美债收益率仍有上行空间,美股存在跌破3月低点的可能性(Lower low)。上周回顾:宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据:美国3月年化新屋开工总数为179.3万户,高于预期值174.5万户;3月年化成屋销售总数为577万户,低于预期值580万户;3月营建许可总数为187.3万户,高于预期值182.5万户;3月谘商会领先指标环比增长0.3%,与预期值一致;4月Markit制造业PMI初值为59.7,高于预期值58.2;4月Markit服务业初值为54.7,低于预期值58;4月费城联储制造业指数17.6,低于预期值21;4月NAHB房产指数为77,与预期值一致。欧元区2月季调后贸易账赤字为94亿欧元;2月季调后经常账为207.97亿欧元;2月工业产出环比增长0.7%,与预期值一致;3月CPI同比增速终值为7.4%,低于预期值7.5%;3月CPI环比增长2.4%,低于预期值2.5%;4月制造业PMI初值为55.3,高于预期值54.7。英国3月季调后零售销售环比降低1.4%,高于预期降速0.3%;4月制造业PMI为55.3,高于预期值54;4月服务业PMI为58.3,低于预期值60;Gfk消费者信心指数为-38,低于预期值-33。经济事件:4月19日,2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话,他表示美国的通胀“太高了”,重申了年底前将利率上调至3.5%的观点,以减缓目前处于40年高位的通胀率[4]。4月22日,美联储主席鲍威尔和欧洲央行行长拉加德参与IMF举办的关于全球经济的小组讨论,鲍威尔表示美联储将计划加息50基点,拉加德表示欧洲央行在控制通胀方面不会像美联储那样积极[5];欧洲央行行长拉加德在彼得森国际经济研究所组织的“宏观经济周”上发表讲话,她要求决策者在未来几天内不要对决策持不同意见[6]。本周关注:宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据:周一公布美国4月达拉斯联储商业活动指数。周二公布美国2月FHFA房价指数环比增速,2月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数同比增速,3月耐用品订单环比增速,3月年化新屋销售总数,4月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数,4月谘商会消费者信心指数。周三公布美国3月成屋签约销售指数环比增速。周四公布美国第一季度实际GDP年化环比增速初值,第一季度实际个人消费支出环比增速初值,第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化环比增速初值,至4月23日当周初请失业金人数;欧元区4月经济景气指数,4月工业景气指数,4月消费者信心指数终值。周五公布美国3月核心PCE物价指数同比增速,3月核心PCE物价指数环比增速,3月个人支出环比增速,4月芝加哥PMI,4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值;欧元区第一季度GDP同比增速初值,4月CPI同比增速初值,4月CPI环比增速。经济事件:周三,国际清算银行、英国央行、欧洲央行和IMF召开关于“复苏不完全和分化背景下的全球新挑战”联合虚拟会议。周四欧洲央行公布经济公报。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631998084,"gmtCreate":1644417230073,"gmtModify":1644417294922,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"多谢费心为散户考虑,我们自己长脑子,不需要别人告诉我们怎么做","listText":"多谢费心为散户考虑,我们自己长脑子,不需要别人告诉我们怎么做","text":"多谢费心为散户考虑,我们自己长脑子,不需要别人告诉我们怎么做","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631998084","repostId":"1104941045","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1104941045","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644392760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104941045?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-09 15:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | AMC院线被指一文不值,散户和高管将成最大空头","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104941045","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"WSB概念股AMC院线将于3月10日公布其2021年第四季度财报。虽然业绩预告显示其亏损大幅收窄,但高管频频减持、Meme股正被美国散户抛弃,让它难以重现去年年初的疯狂炒作热潮。公司在2月1日公布其第","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>WSB概念股AMC院线将于3月10日公布其2021年第四季度财报。虽然业绩预告显示其亏损大幅收窄,但高管频频减持、Meme股正被美国散户抛弃,让它难以重现去年年初的疯狂炒作热潮。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ad0b0f865a392242e7815952d23bd\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>公司在2月1日公布其第四季度财报预期时,股价当天上涨了4.98%,但仍旧难以掩盖今年股价跌近40%的惨淡状况。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed97590763871a349975462b4b47739\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>上季度财报回顾</b></p><p>公司第三季度营收为7.63亿美元,同比增长536%;净亏损为2.24亿美元,去年同期净亏损为9.06亿美元。按业务划分,AMC院线第三季度门票收入为4.25亿美元,去年同期为6290万美元;食品和饮料销售收入为2.65亿美元,去年同期为2910万美元;其他收入为7290万美元,去年同期为2750万美元。</p><p>按业务划分,AMC院线第三季度门票收入为4.25亿美元,去年同期为6290万美元;食品和饮料销售收入为2.65亿美元,去年同期为2910万美元;其他收入为7290万美元,去年同期为2750万美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f78c6606a70be639c9eab2144814009\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>公司预计第四季度营收为11.716亿美元,同比增长621%;净亏损在1.948亿美元-1.148亿美元之间,上年同期净亏损为9.461亿美元。</p><p>截至去年年底,公司近三个月内产生的经营现金约为2.165亿美元,可用流动资金为18.016亿美元,持有的现金及现金等价物为15.925亿美元。</p><p><b>本季度看点</b></p><p>在去年公司股价涨超11倍之际,AMC院线的高管们选择了逢高抛售股票,首席执行官Adam Aron于去年12月7日出售了31.25万股股票,价值达到965万美元。今年年初则抛售了另外的31.25万股,此前他表示,出售股票是为了谨慎地进行遗产规划。而据不完全统计,AMC高管和董事会成员去年累计抛售了超过8000万美元的股票。</p><p>另外不得不提的是公司在追逐虚拟货币的风口,首席执行官Adam Aron表示,公司已推出新的在线电影支付方式,支持包括比特币、以太坊、莱特币在内的虚拟货币支付。此外公司即将接受狗狗币支付。</p><p>在高管们抛售股票、追逐热点来吹捧AMC前景的同时,公司计划在2022年“借新还旧”以减少利息支出。从最新的进展来看,公司开始发行2029年到期、价值5亿美元的高级担保票据,预计将利用净收益赎回5亿美元2025年到期的10.5%优先担保第一留置权票据。</p><p><b>分析师观点</b></p><p>彭博行业研究分析师Kevin Near认为,AMC院线有望在2021年实现强劲收官,在更高的疫苗接种率和更好的出勤率下,国内影院数量将增加。公司的16亿美元现金能在2022年之前提供充足的流动性。尽管与2019年相比,国内票房复苏可能仅达到40%,但今年可能会达到85-90%。而从市场层面看,超过400万的散户投资者可能会选择套现,引发股价更大的波动。</p><p>另一位彭博行业研究分析师Stephen Flynn认为,AMC院线的16亿美元现金为公司的“借新还旧”计划提供了足够的支持,后者的目标是减少利息支出并延长债务期限。 从公司预计的第四季度财报来看,它是取得了自 2019 年第四季度以来的最好业绩。</p><p>New Constructs认为,鉴于公司债务的公允价值为119亿美元,养老金不足4400万美元,递延所得税负债净额为2700万美元,并且没有多余现金的背景下,公司不太可能赚到足够的钱来满足还债的需求。换句话说,股票投资者永远不会看到任何收益。</p><p><b>分析师预测</b></p><p>根据彭博一致预期,AMC院线2021年第四季度营收为10.85亿美元,调整后净利润为-1.3亿美元,调整后EPS为-0.176美元。共有8位分析师对AMC院线进行了评级,其中3位给予持有评级,5位给予卖出评级,平均目标价为6.34美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d231d6218e67159370bb3100ef3bd89a\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | AMC院线被指一文不值,散户和高管将成最大空头\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-09 15:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>WSB概念股AMC院线将于3月10日公布其2021年第四季度财报。虽然业绩预告显示其亏损大幅收窄,但高管频频减持、Meme股正被美国散户抛弃,让它难以重现去年年初的疯狂炒作热潮。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ad0b0f865a392242e7815952d23bd\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>公司在2月1日公布其第四季度财报预期时,股价当天上涨了4.98%,但仍旧难以掩盖今年股价跌近40%的惨淡状况。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed97590763871a349975462b4b47739\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>上季度财报回顾</b></p><p>公司第三季度营收为7.63亿美元,同比增长536%;净亏损为2.24亿美元,去年同期净亏损为9.06亿美元。按业务划分,AMC院线第三季度门票收入为4.25亿美元,去年同期为6290万美元;食品和饮料销售收入为2.65亿美元,去年同期为2910万美元;其他收入为7290万美元,去年同期为2750万美元。</p><p>按业务划分,AMC院线第三季度门票收入为4.25亿美元,去年同期为6290万美元;食品和饮料销售收入为2.65亿美元,去年同期为2910万美元;其他收入为7290万美元,去年同期为2750万美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f78c6606a70be639c9eab2144814009\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>公司预计第四季度营收为11.716亿美元,同比增长621%;净亏损在1.948亿美元-1.148亿美元之间,上年同期净亏损为9.461亿美元。</p><p>截至去年年底,公司近三个月内产生的经营现金约为2.165亿美元,可用流动资金为18.016亿美元,持有的现金及现金等价物为15.925亿美元。</p><p><b>本季度看点</b></p><p>在去年公司股价涨超11倍之际,AMC院线的高管们选择了逢高抛售股票,首席执行官Adam Aron于去年12月7日出售了31.25万股股票,价值达到965万美元。今年年初则抛售了另外的31.25万股,此前他表示,出售股票是为了谨慎地进行遗产规划。而据不完全统计,AMC高管和董事会成员去年累计抛售了超过8000万美元的股票。</p><p>另外不得不提的是公司在追逐虚拟货币的风口,首席执行官Adam Aron表示,公司已推出新的在线电影支付方式,支持包括比特币、以太坊、莱特币在内的虚拟货币支付。此外公司即将接受狗狗币支付。</p><p>在高管们抛售股票、追逐热点来吹捧AMC前景的同时,公司计划在2022年“借新还旧”以减少利息支出。从最新的进展来看,公司开始发行2029年到期、价值5亿美元的高级担保票据,预计将利用净收益赎回5亿美元2025年到期的10.5%优先担保第一留置权票据。</p><p><b>分析师观点</b></p><p>彭博行业研究分析师Kevin Near认为,AMC院线有望在2021年实现强劲收官,在更高的疫苗接种率和更好的出勤率下,国内影院数量将增加。公司的16亿美元现金能在2022年之前提供充足的流动性。尽管与2019年相比,国内票房复苏可能仅达到40%,但今年可能会达到85-90%。而从市场层面看,超过400万的散户投资者可能会选择套现,引发股价更大的波动。</p><p>另一位彭博行业研究分析师Stephen Flynn认为,AMC院线的16亿美元现金为公司的“借新还旧”计划提供了足够的支持,后者的目标是减少利息支出并延长债务期限。 从公司预计的第四季度财报来看,它是取得了自 2019 年第四季度以来的最好业绩。</p><p>New Constructs认为,鉴于公司债务的公允价值为119亿美元,养老金不足4400万美元,递延所得税负债净额为2700万美元,并且没有多余现金的背景下,公司不太可能赚到足够的钱来满足还债的需求。换句话说,股票投资者永远不会看到任何收益。</p><p><b>分析师预测</b></p><p>根据彭博一致预期,AMC院线2021年第四季度营收为10.85亿美元,调整后净利润为-1.3亿美元,调整后EPS为-0.176美元。共有8位分析师对AMC院线进行了评级,其中3位给予持有评级,5位给予卖出评级,平均目标价为6.34美元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d231d6218e67159370bb3100ef3bd89a\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537ad0b0f865a392242e7815952d23bd","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104941045","content_text":"WSB概念股AMC院线将于3月10日公布其2021年第四季度财报。虽然业绩预告显示其亏损大幅收窄,但高管频频减持、Meme股正被美国散户抛弃,让它难以重现去年年初的疯狂炒作热潮。公司在2月1日公布其第四季度财报预期时,股价当天上涨了4.98%,但仍旧难以掩盖今年股价跌近40%的惨淡状况。上季度财报回顾公司第三季度营收为7.63亿美元,同比增长536%;净亏损为2.24亿美元,去年同期净亏损为9.06亿美元。按业务划分,AMC院线第三季度门票收入为4.25亿美元,去年同期为6290万美元;食品和饮料销售收入为2.65亿美元,去年同期为2910万美元;其他收入为7290万美元,去年同期为2750万美元。按业务划分,AMC院线第三季度门票收入为4.25亿美元,去年同期为6290万美元;食品和饮料销售收入为2.65亿美元,去年同期为2910万美元;其他收入为7290万美元,去年同期为2750万美元。公司预计第四季度营收为11.716亿美元,同比增长621%;净亏损在1.948亿美元-1.148亿美元之间,上年同期净亏损为9.461亿美元。截至去年年底,公司近三个月内产生的经营现金约为2.165亿美元,可用流动资金为18.016亿美元,持有的现金及现金等价物为15.925亿美元。本季度看点在去年公司股价涨超11倍之际,AMC院线的高管们选择了逢高抛售股票,首席执行官Adam Aron于去年12月7日出售了31.25万股股票,价值达到965万美元。今年年初则抛售了另外的31.25万股,此前他表示,出售股票是为了谨慎地进行遗产规划。而据不完全统计,AMC高管和董事会成员去年累计抛售了超过8000万美元的股票。另外不得不提的是公司在追逐虚拟货币的风口,首席执行官Adam Aron表示,公司已推出新的在线电影支付方式,支持包括比特币、以太坊、莱特币在内的虚拟货币支付。此外公司即将接受狗狗币支付。在高管们抛售股票、追逐热点来吹捧AMC前景的同时,公司计划在2022年“借新还旧”以减少利息支出。从最新的进展来看,公司开始发行2029年到期、价值5亿美元的高级担保票据,预计将利用净收益赎回5亿美元2025年到期的10.5%优先担保第一留置权票据。分析师观点彭博行业研究分析师Kevin Near认为,AMC院线有望在2021年实现强劲收官,在更高的疫苗接种率和更好的出勤率下,国内影院数量将增加。公司的16亿美元现金能在2022年之前提供充足的流动性。尽管与2019年相比,国内票房复苏可能仅达到40%,但今年可能会达到85-90%。而从市场层面看,超过400万的散户投资者可能会选择套现,引发股价更大的波动。另一位彭博行业研究分析师Stephen Flynn认为,AMC院线的16亿美元现金为公司的“借新还旧”计划提供了足够的支持,后者的目标是减少利息支出并延长债务期限。 从公司预计的第四季度财报来看,它是取得了自 2019 年第四季度以来的最好业绩。New Constructs认为,鉴于公司债务的公允价值为119亿美元,养老金不足4400万美元,递延所得税负债净额为2700万美元,并且没有多余现金的背景下,公司不太可能赚到足够的钱来满足还债的需求。换句话说,股票投资者永远不会看到任何收益。分析师预测根据彭博一致预期,AMC院线2021年第四季度营收为10.85亿美元,调整后净利润为-1.3亿美元,调整后EPS为-0.176美元。共有8位分析师对AMC院线进行了评级,其中3位给予持有评级,5位给予卖出评级,平均目标价为6.34美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854538680,"gmtCreate":1635467004910,"gmtModify":1635467004910,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"换个马甲就以为别人认不出你了吗?","listText":"换个马甲就以为别人认不出你了吗?","text":"换个马甲就以为别人认不出你了吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854538680","repostId":"2179294398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179294398","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635464694,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179294398?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 07:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Facebook直接改名元宇宙!满仓虚拟现实","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179294398","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":" Facebook将未来全部押注于虚拟现实。 当地时间10月28日,Facebook首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在Facebook Connect大会上宣布,Facebook将更名为“Meta”,来源于“元宇宙”。 Facebook表示,计划于12月1日开始以股票代码“MVRS”进行交易。 截至美股收盘,Facebook收高1.5%,外界认为,公司更名为Meta,意味着其企业名称与最近陷入麻烦的社交网络平台Facebook将脱钩,凸显出公司专注于转向以虚拟现实为主的新兴计算平台。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>将未来全部押注于虚拟现实。</p>\n<p>当地时间10月28日,Facebook首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在Facebook Connect大会上宣布,Facebook将更名为“Meta”,来源于“元宇宙”(Metaverse)。</p>\n<p>扎克伯格称,从现在开始,将是元宇宙优先,而不是facebook优先。“我以前学过古典文学,“meta”这个词来自希腊语,意思是“超越”。对我来说,它象征着总有更多的东西需要建造,总有一个故事的下一个篇章。”</p>\n<p>扎克伯格表示,需要构建技术将人们聚集在一起。元宇宙是连接人们的下一个前沿,就像刚开始使用社交网络一样,“随着时间的推移,我希望我们被视为一家元宇宙公司,我希望将我们的工作和身份定位于我们正在构建的目标。”</p>\n<p>Facebook表示,计划于12月1日开始以股票代码“MVRS”进行交易。Facebook的同名服务降级为该公司的子公司之一,与 Instagram 和 WhatsApp 并列,而不是总体品牌。</p>\n<p>截至美股收盘,Facebook收高1.5%,外界认为,公司更名为Meta,意味着其企业名称与最近陷入麻烦的社交网络平台Facebook将脱钩,凸显出公司专注于转向以虚拟现实为主的新兴计算平台。</p>\n<p><b>以下是Facebook创始人扎克伯格,就公司改名和元宇宙业务的公开信的全文翻译。文中也提到了扎克伯格对元宇宙的构想,以及转型元宇宙的初衷。其中也可以读出小扎对当前本该是“互联”的互联网变得更加隔阂的失望,以及对构建元宇宙的决心。</b></p>\n<p><b>觉得长的话,看加粗即可:</b></p>\n<p>我们正处于互联网下一篇章的开始,也是我们公司下一篇章的开始。</p>\n<p>近几十年来,技术赋予人们能够更加自然地与彼此联系、表达自我的能力。当我创建Facebook时,人们还是主要在网站上聊天打字。当带摄像头的手机越来越多,互联网也变得更加视觉化和轻便化。随着网络速度的加快,视频成为分享丰富生活的主要方式。我们已经实现了从单机到网页再到移动端的进化;也从文本到照片再到视频变得越来越丰富。但这不是终点。</p>\n<p><b>下一个平台将使我们的体验更加身临其境——一个有认知的互联网,您可以亲身体验其中,而不仅仅是看着它。我们称之为元宇宙,它将涉及到我们构建的每个产品。</b></p>\n<p><b>元宇宙的决定性品质将是一种存在感——就像现在的你和另一个人在一起,或在另一个地方一样。感受到与他人真正在一起,是社会技术的终极梦想。这就是为什么我们专注于构建这个元宇宙。</b></p>\n<p><b>在元宇宙中,你将可以完成几乎任何你能想象到的事情——与朋友和家人聚在一起,工作、学习、玩耍、购物、创造——等等完全不同的体验,这些体验并不真正符合我们今天对计算机或手机的看法。我们制作了一部电影,探索在未来你将如何使用元宇宙。</b></p>\n<p><b>将来,你将能够立即以全息图传送,无需通勤即可在办公室工作、与朋友共同欣赏音乐会或在父母的客厅叙旧。无论你身在哪里,元宇宙都会给你更多体验。你将可以把更多时间花在对自己更重要的事情上,减少交通时间,并减少碳排放。</b></p>\n<p><b>想想你现在周围有多少实际的物品,这些东西将来可能只是全息图。你的电视、多台显示器搭建的办公桌、棋盘游戏等——它们以后将不是在工厂组装的实际物品,而是由世界各地的创作者设计的全息图。</b></p>\n<p>您将可以在不同设备上体验这些——增强现实AR眼镜可以让你身在现实世界,而心却完全沉浸在虚拟现实中;手机和计算机也可以从现有的平台接入。这不是要花更多时间在电子屏幕上;而是要让我们的时间变得更加珍贵。</p>\n<p>我们的角色和责任</p>\n<p>元宇宙不会由一家公司创建。它将由许多创作者和开发人员构建,提供可交互操作的新体验和数字项目,并解锁比当今平台及其政策约束大得多的创意经济。</p>\n<p>我们在这个过程中的作用是加快基本技术、社交平台和创意工具的发展,将元宇宙带入生活,并通过我们的社交媒体应用程序将这些技术串联起来。我们相信元宇宙可以提供比今天任何事物更好的社会体验,我们将致力于帮助实现其潜力。</p>\n<p>正如我在最初的创始人信中写道:“我们构建服务不是为了赚钱;我们赚钱是为了构建更好的服务。”</p>\n<p>我们一直秉承着这一观点。我们创建公司就是为了支持更大规模的长期投资,以构建更好的服务,这就是我们计划在这里做的事情。</p>\n<p>过去五年在许多方面都让我和我们公司学到了很多。我学到的主要教训之一是,只创造人们喜欢的产品是不够的。</p>\n<p>我深知互联网的故事并不简单。每一章节都会都带来新的声音和新的想法,同时也带来了新的挑战、风险和对既定利益的破坏。我们需要从一开始就共同努力,让这个未来的最佳版本成为现实。</p>\n<p>从第一天起,隐私和安全就需要内置在元宇宙中。开放标准和互操作性也是如此。这不仅需要新的技术工作——例如支持社区的加密和NFT项目——还需要新的治理形式。最重要的是,我们需要帮助建立生态系统,以便更多的人在未来拥有利害关系,不仅可以作为消费者,而且作为创造者受益。</p>\n<p><b>这一时期也是让人成长的阶段,尽管我们是一家大公司,但我们也了解了在其他平台上开始新业务是什么感觉。生活在他们的规则下深刻地塑造了我对科技行业的看法。我开始相信,消费者缺乏选择权,并且开发人员费用高昂,这两点正在扼杀创新,阻碍互联网经济。</b></p>\n<p>我们试图采取不同的方法。我们希望我们的服务能让尽可能多的人使用,这意味着我们需要努力降低、而不是增加成本。我们的移动应用程序是免费的。我们的广告模式旨在为企业提供最低的价格。我们的商业工具以成本价格或少量费用提供。因此,数十亿人喜欢我们的服务,数百万企业依赖我们的工具。</p>\n<p><b>这就是我们想去帮助构建元宇宙的方法。我们计划以成本价或补贴价格出售我们的设备,以便向更多人提供服务。我们将继续支持PC端的侧载和流媒体,以便人们有选择的使用,而不是强迫他们使用Quest Store查找应用程序或联系客户。我们将致力于在尽可能多的情况下,降低开发人员和创作者服务的成本,以便我们能够最大限度地发挥整体创意经济。不过,我们需要确保我们不会在此过程中损失太多钱。</b></p>\n<p>我们希望在未来十年内,元宇宙将惠及数十亿人,托管数千亿美元的数字商务,并为数百万创作者和开发人员提供就业机会。</p>\n<p>我们是谁</p>\n<p>在我们开始下一篇章时,我思考了很多元宇宙对我们的公司和我们的身份意味着什么。</p>\n<p>我们是一家专注于社交的公司。虽然大多数科技公司专注于人们如何与技术互动,但我们一直专注于构建技术,以便人们可以相互互动。</p>\n<p>今天,我们被视为一家社交媒体公司。Facebook是世界历史上使用最多的技术产品之一。这是一个标志性的社交媒体品牌。</p>\n<p>构建社交应用程序对我们来说总是重要的,还有很多东西需要构建。但我越来越觉得,这不该是我们唯一需要做的。在我们的DNA中,我们构建技术将人们聚集在一起。元宇宙是连接人的下一个前沿,就像我们开始社交网络一样。</p>\n<p><b>目前,我们的品牌与自己的一种产品联系非常紧密,以至于它不再能代表我们今天所做的一切,更不用说未来了。随着时间的推移,我希望我们被视为一家元宇宙公司,我想将我们的工作和身份定位在我们为之建设的方向上。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们刚刚宣布,我们正在从根本上改变我们的公司。我们现在将我们的业务视为两个不同的部分:一个是我们现有的应用程序系列,另一个就是我们在未来平台上的工作。我们在元宇宙方面的工作不仅仅是这两个部分。元宇宙包括社会经验和未来技术。随着我们拓宽视野,是时候采用新品牌了。</b></p>\n<p>为了反映我们是谁以及我们希望建设的未来,我很自豪地宣布,我们的公司现在正式更名为Meta。</p>\n<p>我们的使命保持不变——仍然是将人们聚集在一起。我们的应用程序和他们的品牌也没有改变。我们仍然是围绕人们而设计技术的公司。</p>\n<p>但我们的所有产品,包括我们的应用程序,现在都有一个新愿景:帮助将元宇宙带入生活。现在我们有一个名字,反映了我们工作范围。</p>\n<p>从现在开始,我们将以元宇宙为先,而不是以Facebook为先。这意味着随着时间的推移,您将不需要Facebook帐户来使用我们的其他服务。随着我们的新品牌开始出现在我们的产品中,我希望世界各地的人们了解Meta品牌和我们所代表的未来。</p>\n<p><b>我曾经研究过古典文学,而“元”一词来自希腊语单词,意思是“超越”。对我来说,它象征着总是有更多需要建造的,故事总是有下一章。我们的故事始于宿舍,发展得超出我们任何人的想象,成为一个人们用来相互联系、找到自己声音以及创办改变世界的企业、社区和运动的应用程序系列。</b></p>\n<p>我对我们迄今为止取得的成就感到自豪,我对接下来会发生什么感到兴奋——因为我们超越了今天可能的范围,超越了屏幕的约束,超越了距离和物理的限制,走向了一个每个人都可以相互出现、创造新机会和体验新事物的未来。这是一个超越任何一家公司的未来,将由我们所有人创造。</p>\n<p>我们建造了以新方式将人们聚集在一起的东西。我们从与困难的社会问题作斗争和生活在封闭的平台下中吸取了教训。现在是时候把我们学到的一切都拿走,并帮助构建下一章了。</p>\n<p>我正把我们的精力投入到这一点上——比世界上任何其他公司都多。如果这是你想看到的未来,我希望你能加入我们。未来将超出我们所能想象的任何范围。</p>\n<p>—马克·扎克伯格</p>\n<p><b>综合自澎湃新闻等</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook直接改名元宇宙!满仓虚拟现实</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook直接改名元宇宙!满仓虚拟现实\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-29 07:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>将未来全部押注于虚拟现实。</p>\n<p>当地时间10月28日,Facebook首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在Facebook Connect大会上宣布,Facebook将更名为“Meta”,来源于“元宇宙”(Metaverse)。</p>\n<p>扎克伯格称,从现在开始,将是元宇宙优先,而不是facebook优先。“我以前学过古典文学,“meta”这个词来自希腊语,意思是“超越”。对我来说,它象征着总有更多的东西需要建造,总有一个故事的下一个篇章。”</p>\n<p>扎克伯格表示,需要构建技术将人们聚集在一起。元宇宙是连接人们的下一个前沿,就像刚开始使用社交网络一样,“随着时间的推移,我希望我们被视为一家元宇宙公司,我希望将我们的工作和身份定位于我们正在构建的目标。”</p>\n<p>Facebook表示,计划于12月1日开始以股票代码“MVRS”进行交易。Facebook的同名服务降级为该公司的子公司之一,与 Instagram 和 WhatsApp 并列,而不是总体品牌。</p>\n<p>截至美股收盘,Facebook收高1.5%,外界认为,公司更名为Meta,意味着其企业名称与最近陷入麻烦的社交网络平台Facebook将脱钩,凸显出公司专注于转向以虚拟现实为主的新兴计算平台。</p>\n<p><b>以下是Facebook创始人扎克伯格,就公司改名和元宇宙业务的公开信的全文翻译。文中也提到了扎克伯格对元宇宙的构想,以及转型元宇宙的初衷。其中也可以读出小扎对当前本该是“互联”的互联网变得更加隔阂的失望,以及对构建元宇宙的决心。</b></p>\n<p><b>觉得长的话,看加粗即可:</b></p>\n<p>我们正处于互联网下一篇章的开始,也是我们公司下一篇章的开始。</p>\n<p>近几十年来,技术赋予人们能够更加自然地与彼此联系、表达自我的能力。当我创建Facebook时,人们还是主要在网站上聊天打字。当带摄像头的手机越来越多,互联网也变得更加视觉化和轻便化。随着网络速度的加快,视频成为分享丰富生活的主要方式。我们已经实现了从单机到网页再到移动端的进化;也从文本到照片再到视频变得越来越丰富。但这不是终点。</p>\n<p><b>下一个平台将使我们的体验更加身临其境——一个有认知的互联网,您可以亲身体验其中,而不仅仅是看着它。我们称之为元宇宙,它将涉及到我们构建的每个产品。</b></p>\n<p><b>元宇宙的决定性品质将是一种存在感——就像现在的你和另一个人在一起,或在另一个地方一样。感受到与他人真正在一起,是社会技术的终极梦想。这就是为什么我们专注于构建这个元宇宙。</b></p>\n<p><b>在元宇宙中,你将可以完成几乎任何你能想象到的事情——与朋友和家人聚在一起,工作、学习、玩耍、购物、创造——等等完全不同的体验,这些体验并不真正符合我们今天对计算机或手机的看法。我们制作了一部电影,探索在未来你将如何使用元宇宙。</b></p>\n<p><b>将来,你将能够立即以全息图传送,无需通勤即可在办公室工作、与朋友共同欣赏音乐会或在父母的客厅叙旧。无论你身在哪里,元宇宙都会给你更多体验。你将可以把更多时间花在对自己更重要的事情上,减少交通时间,并减少碳排放。</b></p>\n<p><b>想想你现在周围有多少实际的物品,这些东西将来可能只是全息图。你的电视、多台显示器搭建的办公桌、棋盘游戏等——它们以后将不是在工厂组装的实际物品,而是由世界各地的创作者设计的全息图。</b></p>\n<p>您将可以在不同设备上体验这些——增强现实AR眼镜可以让你身在现实世界,而心却完全沉浸在虚拟现实中;手机和计算机也可以从现有的平台接入。这不是要花更多时间在电子屏幕上;而是要让我们的时间变得更加珍贵。</p>\n<p>我们的角色和责任</p>\n<p>元宇宙不会由一家公司创建。它将由许多创作者和开发人员构建,提供可交互操作的新体验和数字项目,并解锁比当今平台及其政策约束大得多的创意经济。</p>\n<p>我们在这个过程中的作用是加快基本技术、社交平台和创意工具的发展,将元宇宙带入生活,并通过我们的社交媒体应用程序将这些技术串联起来。我们相信元宇宙可以提供比今天任何事物更好的社会体验,我们将致力于帮助实现其潜力。</p>\n<p>正如我在最初的创始人信中写道:“我们构建服务不是为了赚钱;我们赚钱是为了构建更好的服务。”</p>\n<p>我们一直秉承着这一观点。我们创建公司就是为了支持更大规模的长期投资,以构建更好的服务,这就是我们计划在这里做的事情。</p>\n<p>过去五年在许多方面都让我和我们公司学到了很多。我学到的主要教训之一是,只创造人们喜欢的产品是不够的。</p>\n<p>我深知互联网的故事并不简单。每一章节都会都带来新的声音和新的想法,同时也带来了新的挑战、风险和对既定利益的破坏。我们需要从一开始就共同努力,让这个未来的最佳版本成为现实。</p>\n<p>从第一天起,隐私和安全就需要内置在元宇宙中。开放标准和互操作性也是如此。这不仅需要新的技术工作——例如支持社区的加密和NFT项目——还需要新的治理形式。最重要的是,我们需要帮助建立生态系统,以便更多的人在未来拥有利害关系,不仅可以作为消费者,而且作为创造者受益。</p>\n<p><b>这一时期也是让人成长的阶段,尽管我们是一家大公司,但我们也了解了在其他平台上开始新业务是什么感觉。生活在他们的规则下深刻地塑造了我对科技行业的看法。我开始相信,消费者缺乏选择权,并且开发人员费用高昂,这两点正在扼杀创新,阻碍互联网经济。</b></p>\n<p>我们试图采取不同的方法。我们希望我们的服务能让尽可能多的人使用,这意味着我们需要努力降低、而不是增加成本。我们的移动应用程序是免费的。我们的广告模式旨在为企业提供最低的价格。我们的商业工具以成本价格或少量费用提供。因此,数十亿人喜欢我们的服务,数百万企业依赖我们的工具。</p>\n<p><b>这就是我们想去帮助构建元宇宙的方法。我们计划以成本价或补贴价格出售我们的设备,以便向更多人提供服务。我们将继续支持PC端的侧载和流媒体,以便人们有选择的使用,而不是强迫他们使用Quest Store查找应用程序或联系客户。我们将致力于在尽可能多的情况下,降低开发人员和创作者服务的成本,以便我们能够最大限度地发挥整体创意经济。不过,我们需要确保我们不会在此过程中损失太多钱。</b></p>\n<p>我们希望在未来十年内,元宇宙将惠及数十亿人,托管数千亿美元的数字商务,并为数百万创作者和开发人员提供就业机会。</p>\n<p>我们是谁</p>\n<p>在我们开始下一篇章时,我思考了很多元宇宙对我们的公司和我们的身份意味着什么。</p>\n<p>我们是一家专注于社交的公司。虽然大多数科技公司专注于人们如何与技术互动,但我们一直专注于构建技术,以便人们可以相互互动。</p>\n<p>今天,我们被视为一家社交媒体公司。Facebook是世界历史上使用最多的技术产品之一。这是一个标志性的社交媒体品牌。</p>\n<p>构建社交应用程序对我们来说总是重要的,还有很多东西需要构建。但我越来越觉得,这不该是我们唯一需要做的。在我们的DNA中,我们构建技术将人们聚集在一起。元宇宙是连接人的下一个前沿,就像我们开始社交网络一样。</p>\n<p><b>目前,我们的品牌与自己的一种产品联系非常紧密,以至于它不再能代表我们今天所做的一切,更不用说未来了。随着时间的推移,我希望我们被视为一家元宇宙公司,我想将我们的工作和身份定位在我们为之建设的方向上。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们刚刚宣布,我们正在从根本上改变我们的公司。我们现在将我们的业务视为两个不同的部分:一个是我们现有的应用程序系列,另一个就是我们在未来平台上的工作。我们在元宇宙方面的工作不仅仅是这两个部分。元宇宙包括社会经验和未来技术。随着我们拓宽视野,是时候采用新品牌了。</b></p>\n<p>为了反映我们是谁以及我们希望建设的未来,我很自豪地宣布,我们的公司现在正式更名为Meta。</p>\n<p>我们的使命保持不变——仍然是将人们聚集在一起。我们的应用程序和他们的品牌也没有改变。我们仍然是围绕人们而设计技术的公司。</p>\n<p>但我们的所有产品,包括我们的应用程序,现在都有一个新愿景:帮助将元宇宙带入生活。现在我们有一个名字,反映了我们工作范围。</p>\n<p>从现在开始,我们将以元宇宙为先,而不是以Facebook为先。这意味着随着时间的推移,您将不需要Facebook帐户来使用我们的其他服务。随着我们的新品牌开始出现在我们的产品中,我希望世界各地的人们了解Meta品牌和我们所代表的未来。</p>\n<p><b>我曾经研究过古典文学,而“元”一词来自希腊语单词,意思是“超越”。对我来说,它象征着总是有更多需要建造的,故事总是有下一章。我们的故事始于宿舍,发展得超出我们任何人的想象,成为一个人们用来相互联系、找到自己声音以及创办改变世界的企业、社区和运动的应用程序系列。</b></p>\n<p>我对我们迄今为止取得的成就感到自豪,我对接下来会发生什么感到兴奋——因为我们超越了今天可能的范围,超越了屏幕的约束,超越了距离和物理的限制,走向了一个每个人都可以相互出现、创造新机会和体验新事物的未来。这是一个超越任何一家公司的未来,将由我们所有人创造。</p>\n<p>我们建造了以新方式将人们聚集在一起的东西。我们从与困难的社会问题作斗争和生活在封闭的平台下中吸取了教训。现在是时候把我们学到的一切都拿走,并帮助构建下一章了。</p>\n<p>我正把我们的精力投入到这一点上——比世界上任何其他公司都多。如果这是你想看到的未来,我希望你能加入我们。未来将超出我们所能想象的任何范围。</p>\n<p>—马克·扎克伯格</p>\n<p><b>综合自澎湃新闻等</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b413d6efef0eada87a13394054c4d38","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179294398","content_text":"Facebook将未来全部押注于虚拟现实。\n当地时间10月28日,Facebook首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在Facebook Connect大会上宣布,Facebook将更名为“Meta”,来源于“元宇宙”(Metaverse)。\n扎克伯格称,从现在开始,将是元宇宙优先,而不是facebook优先。“我以前学过古典文学,“meta”这个词来自希腊语,意思是“超越”。对我来说,它象征着总有更多的东西需要建造,总有一个故事的下一个篇章。”\n扎克伯格表示,需要构建技术将人们聚集在一起。元宇宙是连接人们的下一个前沿,就像刚开始使用社交网络一样,“随着时间的推移,我希望我们被视为一家元宇宙公司,我希望将我们的工作和身份定位于我们正在构建的目标。”\nFacebook表示,计划于12月1日开始以股票代码“MVRS”进行交易。Facebook的同名服务降级为该公司的子公司之一,与 Instagram 和 WhatsApp 并列,而不是总体品牌。\n截至美股收盘,Facebook收高1.5%,外界认为,公司更名为Meta,意味着其企业名称与最近陷入麻烦的社交网络平台Facebook将脱钩,凸显出公司专注于转向以虚拟现实为主的新兴计算平台。\n以下是Facebook创始人扎克伯格,就公司改名和元宇宙业务的公开信的全文翻译。文中也提到了扎克伯格对元宇宙的构想,以及转型元宇宙的初衷。其中也可以读出小扎对当前本该是“互联”的互联网变得更加隔阂的失望,以及对构建元宇宙的决心。\n觉得长的话,看加粗即可:\n我们正处于互联网下一篇章的开始,也是我们公司下一篇章的开始。\n近几十年来,技术赋予人们能够更加自然地与彼此联系、表达自我的能力。当我创建Facebook时,人们还是主要在网站上聊天打字。当带摄像头的手机越来越多,互联网也变得更加视觉化和轻便化。随着网络速度的加快,视频成为分享丰富生活的主要方式。我们已经实现了从单机到网页再到移动端的进化;也从文本到照片再到视频变得越来越丰富。但这不是终点。\n下一个平台将使我们的体验更加身临其境——一个有认知的互联网,您可以亲身体验其中,而不仅仅是看着它。我们称之为元宇宙,它将涉及到我们构建的每个产品。\n元宇宙的决定性品质将是一种存在感——就像现在的你和另一个人在一起,或在另一个地方一样。感受到与他人真正在一起,是社会技术的终极梦想。这就是为什么我们专注于构建这个元宇宙。\n在元宇宙中,你将可以完成几乎任何你能想象到的事情——与朋友和家人聚在一起,工作、学习、玩耍、购物、创造——等等完全不同的体验,这些体验并不真正符合我们今天对计算机或手机的看法。我们制作了一部电影,探索在未来你将如何使用元宇宙。\n将来,你将能够立即以全息图传送,无需通勤即可在办公室工作、与朋友共同欣赏音乐会或在父母的客厅叙旧。无论你身在哪里,元宇宙都会给你更多体验。你将可以把更多时间花在对自己更重要的事情上,减少交通时间,并减少碳排放。\n想想你现在周围有多少实际的物品,这些东西将来可能只是全息图。你的电视、多台显示器搭建的办公桌、棋盘游戏等——它们以后将不是在工厂组装的实际物品,而是由世界各地的创作者设计的全息图。\n您将可以在不同设备上体验这些——增强现实AR眼镜可以让你身在现实世界,而心却完全沉浸在虚拟现实中;手机和计算机也可以从现有的平台接入。这不是要花更多时间在电子屏幕上;而是要让我们的时间变得更加珍贵。\n我们的角色和责任\n元宇宙不会由一家公司创建。它将由许多创作者和开发人员构建,提供可交互操作的新体验和数字项目,并解锁比当今平台及其政策约束大得多的创意经济。\n我们在这个过程中的作用是加快基本技术、社交平台和创意工具的发展,将元宇宙带入生活,并通过我们的社交媒体应用程序将这些技术串联起来。我们相信元宇宙可以提供比今天任何事物更好的社会体验,我们将致力于帮助实现其潜力。\n正如我在最初的创始人信中写道:“我们构建服务不是为了赚钱;我们赚钱是为了构建更好的服务。”\n我们一直秉承着这一观点。我们创建公司就是为了支持更大规模的长期投资,以构建更好的服务,这就是我们计划在这里做的事情。\n过去五年在许多方面都让我和我们公司学到了很多。我学到的主要教训之一是,只创造人们喜欢的产品是不够的。\n我深知互联网的故事并不简单。每一章节都会都带来新的声音和新的想法,同时也带来了新的挑战、风险和对既定利益的破坏。我们需要从一开始就共同努力,让这个未来的最佳版本成为现实。\n从第一天起,隐私和安全就需要内置在元宇宙中。开放标准和互操作性也是如此。这不仅需要新的技术工作——例如支持社区的加密和NFT项目——还需要新的治理形式。最重要的是,我们需要帮助建立生态系统,以便更多的人在未来拥有利害关系,不仅可以作为消费者,而且作为创造者受益。\n这一时期也是让人成长的阶段,尽管我们是一家大公司,但我们也了解了在其他平台上开始新业务是什么感觉。生活在他们的规则下深刻地塑造了我对科技行业的看法。我开始相信,消费者缺乏选择权,并且开发人员费用高昂,这两点正在扼杀创新,阻碍互联网经济。\n我们试图采取不同的方法。我们希望我们的服务能让尽可能多的人使用,这意味着我们需要努力降低、而不是增加成本。我们的移动应用程序是免费的。我们的广告模式旨在为企业提供最低的价格。我们的商业工具以成本价格或少量费用提供。因此,数十亿人喜欢我们的服务,数百万企业依赖我们的工具。\n这就是我们想去帮助构建元宇宙的方法。我们计划以成本价或补贴价格出售我们的设备,以便向更多人提供服务。我们将继续支持PC端的侧载和流媒体,以便人们有选择的使用,而不是强迫他们使用Quest Store查找应用程序或联系客户。我们将致力于在尽可能多的情况下,降低开发人员和创作者服务的成本,以便我们能够最大限度地发挥整体创意经济。不过,我们需要确保我们不会在此过程中损失太多钱。\n我们希望在未来十年内,元宇宙将惠及数十亿人,托管数千亿美元的数字商务,并为数百万创作者和开发人员提供就业机会。\n我们是谁\n在我们开始下一篇章时,我思考了很多元宇宙对我们的公司和我们的身份意味着什么。\n我们是一家专注于社交的公司。虽然大多数科技公司专注于人们如何与技术互动,但我们一直专注于构建技术,以便人们可以相互互动。\n今天,我们被视为一家社交媒体公司。Facebook是世界历史上使用最多的技术产品之一。这是一个标志性的社交媒体品牌。\n构建社交应用程序对我们来说总是重要的,还有很多东西需要构建。但我越来越觉得,这不该是我们唯一需要做的。在我们的DNA中,我们构建技术将人们聚集在一起。元宇宙是连接人的下一个前沿,就像我们开始社交网络一样。\n目前,我们的品牌与自己的一种产品联系非常紧密,以至于它不再能代表我们今天所做的一切,更不用说未来了。随着时间的推移,我希望我们被视为一家元宇宙公司,我想将我们的工作和身份定位在我们为之建设的方向上。\n我们刚刚宣布,我们正在从根本上改变我们的公司。我们现在将我们的业务视为两个不同的部分:一个是我们现有的应用程序系列,另一个就是我们在未来平台上的工作。我们在元宇宙方面的工作不仅仅是这两个部分。元宇宙包括社会经验和未来技术。随着我们拓宽视野,是时候采用新品牌了。\n为了反映我们是谁以及我们希望建设的未来,我很自豪地宣布,我们的公司现在正式更名为Meta。\n我们的使命保持不变——仍然是将人们聚集在一起。我们的应用程序和他们的品牌也没有改变。我们仍然是围绕人们而设计技术的公司。\n但我们的所有产品,包括我们的应用程序,现在都有一个新愿景:帮助将元宇宙带入生活。现在我们有一个名字,反映了我们工作范围。\n从现在开始,我们将以元宇宙为先,而不是以Facebook为先。这意味着随着时间的推移,您将不需要Facebook帐户来使用我们的其他服务。随着我们的新品牌开始出现在我们的产品中,我希望世界各地的人们了解Meta品牌和我们所代表的未来。\n我曾经研究过古典文学,而“元”一词来自希腊语单词,意思是“超越”。对我来说,它象征着总是有更多需要建造的,故事总是有下一章。我们的故事始于宿舍,发展得超出我们任何人的想象,成为一个人们用来相互联系、找到自己声音以及创办改变世界的企业、社区和运动的应用程序系列。\n我对我们迄今为止取得的成就感到自豪,我对接下来会发生什么感到兴奋——因为我们超越了今天可能的范围,超越了屏幕的约束,超越了距离和物理的限制,走向了一个每个人都可以相互出现、创造新机会和体验新事物的未来。这是一个超越任何一家公司的未来,将由我们所有人创造。\n我们建造了以新方式将人们聚集在一起的东西。我们从与困难的社会问题作斗争和生活在封闭的平台下中吸取了教训。现在是时候把我们学到的一切都拿走,并帮助构建下一章了。\n我正把我们的精力投入到这一点上——比世界上任何其他公司都多。如果这是你想看到的未来,我希望你能加入我们。未来将超出我们所能想象的任何范围。\n—马克·扎克伯格\n综合自澎湃新闻等","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854972207,"gmtCreate":1635415656529,"gmtModify":1635415656529,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUNW\">$Phunware Inc(PHUNW)$</a>请教,有知道phunw的行权价吗?谢谢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUNW\">$Phunware Inc(PHUNW)$</a>请教,有知道phunw的行权价吗?谢谢","text":"$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$$Phunware Inc(PHUNW)$请教,有知道phunw的行权价吗?谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854972207","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862371780,"gmtCreate":1632840299854,"gmtModify":1632840299854,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>其实亚洲市场占据amc额度量非常少,老虎这样打压言论,吃香太难看了。有意思吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>其实亚洲市场占据amc额度量非常少,老虎这样打压言论,吃香太难看了。有意思吗?","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$其实亚洲市场占据amc额度量非常少,老虎这样打压言论,吃香太难看了。有意思吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862371780","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436825511","authorId":"3562670436825511","name":"上了飞机老师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f05edd9e1dfe2801c7d5b00683313e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562670436825511","authorIdStr":"3562670436825511"},"content":"可以看出来后面的大资本是有点慌的,这简直是饥不择食了。要是他们真够强势,有必要搞什么禁言嘛,直接打到1块钱!还浪费力气管散户说什么呢?","text":"可以看出来后面的大资本是有点慌的,这简直是饥不择食了。要是他们真够强势,有必要搞什么禁言嘛,直接打到1块钱!还浪费力气管散户说什么呢?","html":"可以看出来后面的大资本是有点慌的,这简直是饥不择食了。要是他们真够强势,有必要搞什么禁言嘛,直接打到1块钱!还浪费力气管散户说什么呢?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":882402948,"gmtCreate":1631713090984,"gmtModify":1631713090984,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>买更多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>买更多","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$买更多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882402948","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125155350,"gmtCreate":1624665590470,"gmtModify":1624665590470,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fool ","listText":"Fool ","text":"Fool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125155350","repostId":"2146072291","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2146072291","pubTimestamp":1624633800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2146072291?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons to Sell AMC Stock Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146072291","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The future looks bleak for this entertainment giant.","content":"<p>Meme stocks are a relatively new phenomenon. The term refers to equities that have skyrocketed in value without any fundamental justification but are instead seeing their stock prices turn quite volatile based mostly on hype, often from social media platforms.</p>\n<p>Notably, <b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b> (NYSE:AMC) is among the most popular meme stocks at the moment. Its share price has surged 2,500% this year, driven by irrational enthusiasm from retail investors looking to strike it rich. And some have certainly succeeded, becoming millionaires almost overnight. But many others are likely to get burned when the stock price finally returns to more normal levels.</p>\n<p>If you own shares, here are three reasons to sell AMC stock right now.</p>\n<h3>1. Fundamentals always matter</h3>\n<p>Famed investor Benjamin Graham once said: \"In the short run, the market is a voting machine; but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.\" In other words, popularity drives price action in the short term, but fundamentals matter more over time.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61107d3657db19f73a4afdc7a9e9a8e5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images</p>\n<p>Anecdotally, I've read comments from a shocking number of AMC shareholders who assert that fundamentals (things like revenue, cash flow, and valuation) simply don't matter. When confronted with these metrics, they dismiss them and instead resort to accusations of short interest. And maybe some of the dissenters are short-sellers, but I have never been long or short AMC stock.</p>\n<p>Here's the unfortunate truth: Fundamentals always matter. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but eventually the stock price will reflect that. And if AMC's financial picture doesn't improve, the stock price will eventually plunge. And management knows that.</p>\n<p>In fact, in a recently filed Form 8-K, management issued this warning to shareholders: \"Under the circumstances, we caution you against investing in our [stock], unless you are prepared to incur the risk of losing all or a substantial portion of your investment.\"</p>\n<h3>2. AMC stock is wildly overvalued</h3>\n<p>The pandemic hit AMC hard last year, forcing the company to shutter theaters around the world. Not surprisingly, that sparked sharp declines in attendance, sales, and profitability. And despite reopening many locations this year, those metrics are still in free fall.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2020</p></th>\n <th><p>Q3 2020</p></th>\n <th><p>Q4 2020</p></th>\n <th><p>Q1 2021</p></th>\n </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"144\"><p>YOY attendance growth (decline)</p></td>\n <td width=\"120\"><p>(100%)</p></td>\n <td width=\"126\"><p>(93%)</p></td>\n <td width=\"120\"><p>(91%)</p></td>\n <td width=\"114\"><p>(89%)</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"144\"><p>Revenue growth (decline)</p></td>\n <td width=\"120\"><p>(99%)</p></td>\n <td width=\"126\"><p>(91%)</p></td>\n <td width=\"120\"><p>(89%)</p></td>\n <td width=\"114\"><p>(84%)</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: AMC SEC filings. YOY: Year-over-year.</p>\n<p>Oddly, as sales have plummeted, the share price has hit new highs, driving the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to nonsensical levels. If AMC was competing in a high-growth industry, its present valuation might not be alarming. But it competes in a slow-growing sector of the entertainment industry. Case in point: Box office revenue grew less than 1% per year between 2010 and 2019.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n <th><p>Q4 2014</p></th>\n <th><p>Q4 2017</p></th>\n <th><p>Q4 2020</p></th>\n <th><p>Q1 2021</p></th>\n </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"125\"><p>Price-to-sales ratio</p></td>\n <td width=\"125\"><p>0.95</p></td>\n <td width=\"125\"><p>0.38</p></td>\n <td width=\"125\"><p>0.20</p></td>\n <td width=\"125\"><p>24.22</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Ycharts. P/S multiples reflect data from the last day of each quarter.</p>\n<p>I'll end with this observation: Competition from streaming services has never been greater, and AMC's financial performance has never been weaker, so why is AMC stock valued more highly than ever before? At its current price, this is a dangerous investment.</p>\n<h3>3. AMC has a liquidity problem</h3>\n<p>Before the pandemic, AMC had $265 million in cash and $4.7 billion in debt on its balance sheet. It also had $4.9 billion in operating lease liabilities (i.e., rent).</p>\n<p>When the pandemic hit, the company deferred a portion of its rent, but still couldn't cover operating expenses and interest payments. So AMC issued more debt and new shares several times during 2020, effectively digging the hole deeper.</p>\n<p>As of March 31, 2021, AMC's balance sheet was insolvent -- even if the company sold every last asset, it still wouldn't have enough cash to cover its liabilities.</p>\n<p>Now, in order to meet its minimum liquidity requirements, attendance must reach 85% of pre-COVID levels by the fourth quarter of this year. If that doesn't happen, management said it would likely seek a \"restructuring of [its] liabilities.\" That's a fancy phrase that means shareholders would be completely wiped out.</p>\n<p>So let's ignore the red flags raised by AMC's valuation. Investors still need to ask this question: Can attendance reach 85% of pre-pandemic levels in that time frame? If you aren't certain the answer is yes, then it's time to sell this stock. There are better places to put your money.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons to Sell AMC Stock Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons to Sell AMC Stock Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 23:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/3-reasons-to-sell-amc-stock-right-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Meme stocks are a relatively new phenomenon. The term refers to equities that have skyrocketed in value without any fundamental justification but are instead seeing their stock prices turn quite ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/3-reasons-to-sell-amc-stock-right-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/25/3-reasons-to-sell-amc-stock-right-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146072291","content_text":"Meme stocks are a relatively new phenomenon. The term refers to equities that have skyrocketed in value without any fundamental justification but are instead seeing their stock prices turn quite volatile based mostly on hype, often from social media platforms.\nNotably, AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) is among the most popular meme stocks at the moment. Its share price has surged 2,500% this year, driven by irrational enthusiasm from retail investors looking to strike it rich. And some have certainly succeeded, becoming millionaires almost overnight. But many others are likely to get burned when the stock price finally returns to more normal levels.\nIf you own shares, here are three reasons to sell AMC stock right now.\n1. Fundamentals always matter\nFamed investor Benjamin Graham once said: \"In the short run, the market is a voting machine; but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.\" In other words, popularity drives price action in the short term, but fundamentals matter more over time.\n\nImage source: Getty Images\nAnecdotally, I've read comments from a shocking number of AMC shareholders who assert that fundamentals (things like revenue, cash flow, and valuation) simply don't matter. When confronted with these metrics, they dismiss them and instead resort to accusations of short interest. And maybe some of the dissenters are short-sellers, but I have never been long or short AMC stock.\nHere's the unfortunate truth: Fundamentals always matter. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but eventually the stock price will reflect that. And if AMC's financial picture doesn't improve, the stock price will eventually plunge. And management knows that.\nIn fact, in a recently filed Form 8-K, management issued this warning to shareholders: \"Under the circumstances, we caution you against investing in our [stock], unless you are prepared to incur the risk of losing all or a substantial portion of your investment.\"\n2. AMC stock is wildly overvalued\nThe pandemic hit AMC hard last year, forcing the company to shutter theaters around the world. Not surprisingly, that sparked sharp declines in attendance, sales, and profitability. And despite reopening many locations this year, those metrics are still in free fall.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2020\nQ3 2020\nQ4 2020\nQ1 2021\n\n\n\n\nYOY attendance growth (decline)\n(100%)\n(93%)\n(91%)\n(89%)\n\n\nRevenue growth (decline)\n(99%)\n(91%)\n(89%)\n(84%)\n\n\n\nSource: AMC SEC filings. YOY: Year-over-year.\nOddly, as sales have plummeted, the share price has hit new highs, driving the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to nonsensical levels. If AMC was competing in a high-growth industry, its present valuation might not be alarming. But it competes in a slow-growing sector of the entertainment industry. Case in point: Box office revenue grew less than 1% per year between 2010 and 2019.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ4 2014\nQ4 2017\nQ4 2020\nQ1 2021\n\n\n\n\nPrice-to-sales ratio\n0.95\n0.38\n0.20\n24.22\n\n\n\nSource: Ycharts. P/S multiples reflect data from the last day of each quarter.\nI'll end with this observation: Competition from streaming services has never been greater, and AMC's financial performance has never been weaker, so why is AMC stock valued more highly than ever before? At its current price, this is a dangerous investment.\n3. AMC has a liquidity problem\nBefore the pandemic, AMC had $265 million in cash and $4.7 billion in debt on its balance sheet. It also had $4.9 billion in operating lease liabilities (i.e., rent).\nWhen the pandemic hit, the company deferred a portion of its rent, but still couldn't cover operating expenses and interest payments. So AMC issued more debt and new shares several times during 2020, effectively digging the hole deeper.\nAs of March 31, 2021, AMC's balance sheet was insolvent -- even if the company sold every last asset, it still wouldn't have enough cash to cover its liabilities.\nNow, in order to meet its minimum liquidity requirements, attendance must reach 85% of pre-COVID levels by the fourth quarter of this year. If that doesn't happen, management said it would likely seek a \"restructuring of [its] liabilities.\" That's a fancy phrase that means shareholders would be completely wiped out.\nSo let's ignore the red flags raised by AMC's valuation. Investors still need to ask this question: Can attendance reach 85% of pre-pandemic levels in that time frame? If you aren't certain the answer is yes, then it's time to sell this stock. There are better places to put your money.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120417626,"gmtCreate":1624332083565,"gmtModify":1624332083565,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>为什么不让发?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>为什么不让发?","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$为什么不让发?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/974819f14db63e99b00fe69cb8971d4e","width":"828","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120417626","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":120411953,"gmtCreate":1624331603972,"gmtModify":1624332465308,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a>重点观察昨天没有暴跌的号称meme股票的成员,expr,wish,mvis,bbby,así,rblx。远离","listText":"<a 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","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$请教,老虎上看到的未平仓数仅是老虎的,还是整个市场的?谢谢[抱拳]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182891102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570013467613238","authorId":"3570013467613238","name":"QYX牛F佳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfbab29c3cc6e5d7cf90944f9929998b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570013467613238","authorIdStr":"3570013467613238"},"content":"只代表老虎","text":"只代表老虎","html":"只代表老虎"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188299943,"gmtCreate":1623441439682,"gmtModify":1623441439682,"author":{"id":"3542754751489677","authorId":"3542754751489677","name":"gracez","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542754751489677","authorIdStr":"3542754751489677"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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