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十一张图，谈谈对一季度宏观数据与形势的一些看法
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2020-01-16
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20:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"十一张图，谈谈对一季度宏观数据与形势的一些看法","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139193371","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一、一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。怎么说呢？比想象的好。好不少。我的宏观模型做出来，一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间。一季度是现在时，不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少，本不应该","content":"<p><b><span>一、</span></b></p><p><b><span>一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5630a731426832535054d5b1b32837fb\"></p><p><span>怎么说呢？</span><b><span>比想象的好。好不少。</span></b></p><p><b><span>我的宏观模型做出来，一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>一季度是现在时，不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少，</span><b><span>本不应该存在如此大的数据偏离。</span></b></p><p><span>我看了一下，</span><b><span>主要偏离发生在第三产业</span></b><span>。GDP下了6.8%，第二产业下了9.6个百分点，对GDP贡献最大的第三产业，只下了5.2个百分点：</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d33400ab6b1824ec2baaca06424fd9\"></p><p><b><span>这既不符合常识，也不符合经济规律</span></b><span>。人类经济史上，疫情对第三产业的冲击，从来远大过第一、第二产业。SARS的数据摆在那，离我们并不远。</span></p><p><b><span>各产业用电量增速，也与以上GDP贡献数据存有显然差异</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>三月份，一产用电量正增长4个点、二产用电量增速也顽强拐头，低单位数负增长，唯有第三产业，继续大跳水，用电量同比负增长19.8%，为有数据统计以来的最低水平：</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae0c4c82edcd6f6ad5b504f2087e0de\"></p><p><span>所以，</span><b><span>我并不准备对我自己的宏观模型做任何修正</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>二、</span></p><p><span>从分项数据看，</span><b><span>社零、房地产开发、固定资产投资、工业增加值，都有所好转</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>是好消息。但这些都属解除“封锁”之后的应有之义，且力度很弱（尤其社零），尚不足以谈人生</span></b><span>：</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceee6edf4985c13b72b8e040e0af153e\"></p><p><span>作为一个用真金白银下注的投资人，</span><b><span>这些“宏大”指标颗粒度还是太粗，容易掩盖细节，甚至真相。</span></b></p><p><span>我想更细致而微、更具参考价值的三个另类数据视角，</span><b><span>谈谈我们究竟在哪？</span></b></p><p><b><span>我用三率：失业率、复工率、产能利用率</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>做生意的都知道，上面三个指标，才是居民和企业的资产负债表，是民生脉搏，是经济真相。</span></b></p><p><span>先谈失业率。</span></p><p><b><span>就业意味着工资，意味着收入，意味着需求，意味着消费与社零</span></b><span>。失业率是宏观经济学最重要的指标，没有之一。</span></p><p><span>但很遗憾，我们没有符合传统经济学意义的失业率指标。</span><b><span>我们的城镇登记失业率与调查失业率，更像一个可防可控的安民告示，参考价值相当有限</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>我们的城镇调查失业率，在3月，甚至不升反降：</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d5005b0482018c324d5b2a234e1113b\"></p><p><b><span>这不符合常识</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>我尝试着做了中国的菲利普斯曲线（一个反映失业率与通货膨胀率反向替代关系的经济学指标），结果</span><b><span>在1998年国企为就业主力军以前，我们的菲利普斯曲线几乎是一条水平直线</span></b><span>。1998年民企国企就业角色拐点后，菲利普斯曲线不是直线了，但也是失效的。</span></p><p><span>所以，只能尝试用其他数据去接近真相。其中一个有意思的维度，是百度搜索指数。</span></p><p><b><span>最新“失业”百度搜索指数大幅飙升，最新数值为过去十年均值的2.8倍：</span></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3535fe83f6258947fb83671cc7a0a2\"></p><p><span>搜索“失业”，也可能是出于研究需要，指向性未见精确。</span><b><span>但如果搜索“失业金领取条件”，指向性就异常明确了——搜索者大概率已处于失业状态：</span></b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efa0037c8fa265632cc8f38b1596a17d\"></p><p><b><span>这个数据，3月底一度飙升到过去十年均值的16倍。最新数值，亦为过去十年均值的7倍。</span></b></p><p><span>以我的细分行业模型，剔除餐饮、旅游、酒店、运输、养殖、娱乐、影视、房地产、教培这些显而易见受巨大冲击的行业，</span><b><span>仅仅外贸相关行业，新增失业人数就可能接近2000万</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>格隆汇启动针对应届生的校园招聘后，每天会收到诸多</span><b><span>愿意很低薪、甚至无薪要求</span></b><span>的应聘材料。</span></p><p><b><span>失业，不单单意味着需求的消失，更意味着社会经济基础代谢细胞的失能，甚至坏死</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>这就是我上一篇文章《疫情之后，何去何从》着重提的观点：</span></p><p><b><span>忘掉GDP，保中小企业吧。</span></b></p><p><b><span>保它们不死，就是保我们的未来不死。</span></b></p><p><span>三、</span></p><p><b><span>在正常经济条件下，复工率是一个没有任何存在价值的指标</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>但在疫情冲击下，它非常有意义，尤其是在湖北与武汉解封这个标志性事件后。</span></p><p><span>但很遗憾，</span><b><span>找不到任何权威的复工数据指标</span></b><span>。我尝试用两个另类维度来还原我们经济复工的真实情况。</span></p><p><b><span>一个是疫情前后的城市灯光。</span></b></p><p><span>从Google地图上不难发现，疫情冲击下，2020年春节前后京津冀地区的灯光，大概只有2019年春节同期亮度的2-3成。而</span><b><span>到了3月份，灯光基本恢复到了2019年正常水平的4-5成的水平：</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c42a5794c5e2a0a8b309b186b3e92a\"></p><p><span>当然，</span><b><span>灯光角度直观，但仍显粗糙</span></b><span>，在判断精确度上存在瑕疵。</span></p><p><span>好在，</span><b><span>我们有第二个维度，中国核心城市的地铁客运量</span></b><span>。以疫情前的客运量为Benchmark，对比疫情后数据恢复情况，用以反映城市的经济恢复程度，完全符合统计学的严谨与逻辑。</span></p><p><b><span>真实数据是怎样的呢</span></b><span>：</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ceaea00a18a639a30c5c2a64c398e0dc\"></p><p><span>三个结论：</span></p><p><span>1、</span><b><span>疫情对所有城市经济，几乎都造成了断崖式冲击；</span></b></p><p><span>2、</span><b><span>大城市的恢复速度，明显慢于中小城市；</span></b></p><p><span>3、</span><b><span>以中国9个核心城市的地铁客运量的算数平均值，可以推断出，截止4月中旬，中国整体复工率，大致为59.5%；</span></b></p><p><span>这个数据意味着：</span><b><span>依然有4成左右的企业，处于（隐性）停工状态。</span></b></p><p><span>这与工信部产业政策与法规司“截至4月14日，全国规模以上工业企业平均开工率已达99%，全国中小企业复工率为84%”的提法，有显然的不匹配。</span></p><p><span>于投资人而言，无疑更应该采信城市灯光与地铁客运量。</span></p><p><span>遗憾在于，</span><b><span>地铁客运量这个数据，无法回答这4成企业未复工的原因</span></b><span>：是因为倒闭，歇业，还是暂时的冬眠，或者蛰伏？</span></p><p><span>等四月份数据出来了，上面的答案，也就基本出来了。</span></p><p><b><span>四、</span></b></p><p><b><span>之所以要追加产能利用率这个指标，是因为复工率是一个中间层指标</span></b><span>。很多企业开门是开门了，但可能只是部分运转，努力扛着，不让自己消失而已。</span></p><p><span>所谓的</span><b><span>“出工不出力”</span></b><span>，大致描述的就是这种状态。</span></p><p><span>先看看统计局的数据。2018年，中国工业产能利用率76.5%，2019年为76.6%，这些年来，都非常平稳。</span></p><p><span>到2020年3月，这个数据跳水了差不多10个百分点，到67.3%：</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e3d212a0b1d1bb46a26fd93cc72a28\"></p><p><span>这是为数不多的能互相佐证的数据。能作为证明的，是同期用电量数据：</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118dea8421a9dd7a6a0bfe9f8dee9dd8\"></p><p><span>克强三指标，发电量、货运量、信贷量，</span><b><span>最不容易造假的就是发（用）电量</span></b><span>。没有人会闲来无事，把机器空转着玩。</span></p><p><b><span>产能利用率一口气下十个点，这种情况只有两种情形下发生：</span></b></p><p><span>1、</span><b><span>没有订单；</span></b></p><p><span>2、</span><b><span>还是没有订单；</span></b></p><p><span>所以，我在商学院讲课的时候，给所有企业家的建议都是：</span><b><span>你不要看GDP。你做决策，是要扩张，是收缩，还是干脆止损回家，盯订单就对了</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>盯消失的订单，是暂时消失，还是永久消失。</span></b></p><p><b><span>盯在手订单，还有多少，可以重来？</span></b></p><p><b><span>尾声</span></b></p><p><span>说了这么多，我想，我已经把我们在哪里，基本说清楚了。</span><span><b>很遗憾，我没法告诉你，我们会去往哪里？</b></span></p><p><span>剩下的，说两句投资。</span></p><p><b><span>我们面临着自上世纪30年代以来最大的经济萧条</span></b><span>——并不是每个人都充分相信并理解了这句话的内涵。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c75a705a3c6a589e8c52631e29b0ddb\"></p><p><b><span>人类每次大型经济危机，本质是都是技术进步导致的需求过剩</span></b><span>。通过危机的方式，需求与供给会重新回到一个较低的水平上达致平衡，直到新一轮技术革命创造出新的需求为止。从19世纪60年代蒸汽机革命以来，每轮这种繁荣期，大概都维持在60年的水平，而后会通过20-25年的时间去消化。</span></p><p><b><span>我们这轮繁荣，源自上世纪60年代开始的芯片革命。周期已至，疫情只是加速周期的到来而已</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>在可预见的未来，看不到革命性的技术会出现。</span><b><span>这意味着，无论是全球经济，还是股市，未来都会在一个区间内休憩、整理，基本不会存在单极走向的可能。</span></b></p><p><span>当然，这并不妨碍那些集聚着人类最优秀进化基因的公司继续旺盛。</span><b><span>在如此骇人的疫情下，亚马逊与与奈飞的股价依然创了历史新高。</span></b></p><p><span>事实上，投资简单，但不容易。</span></p><p><b><span>市场经常会重奖错误的行为，以鼓励他们下一次慷慨赴死。</span></b></p><p><b><span>而坚持做，且只做正确的事，并愿意为此放弃市场先生颁发给错误行为的奖金，这才是通向成功的唯一路径。</span></b></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n十一张图，谈谈对一季度宏观数据与形势的一些看法\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-17 20:45 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE5XdnLqgWOMjZcN8l2KtA><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一、一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。怎么说呢？比想象的好。好不少。我的宏观模型做出来，一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间。一季度是现在时，不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少，本不应该存在如此大的数据偏离。我看了一下，主要偏离发生在第三产业。GDP下了6.8%，第二产业下了9.6个百分点，对GDP贡献最大的第三产业，只下了5.2个百分点：这既不符合常识，也不符合经济规律。人类经济史...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE5XdnLqgWOMjZcN8l2KtA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CE5XdnLqgWOMjZcN8l2KtA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1139193371","content_text":"一、一季度宏观数据出来了。GDP—6.8%。怎么说呢？比想象的好。好不少。我的宏观模型做出来，一季度GDP应该落入—8.5%到—9%区间。一季度是现在时，不是将来时。模型里假设变量已大幅减少，本不应该存在如此大的数据偏离。我看了一下，主要偏离发生在第三产业。GDP下了6.8%，第二产业下了9.6个百分点，对GDP贡献最大的第三产业，只下了5.2个百分点：这既不符合常识，也不符合经济规律。人类经济史上，疫情对第三产业的冲击，从来远大过第一、第二产业。SARS的数据摆在那，离我们并不远。各产业用电量增速，也与以上GDP贡献数据存有显然差异。三月份，一产用电量正增长4个点、二产用电量增速也顽强拐头，低单位数负增长，唯有第三产业，继续大跳水，用电量同比负增长19.8%，为有数据统计以来的最低水平：所以，我并不准备对我自己的宏观模型做任何修正。二、从分项数据看，社零、房地产开发、固定资产投资、工业增加值，都有所好转。是好消息。但这些都属解除“封锁”之后的应有之义，且力度很弱（尤其社零），尚不足以谈人生：作为一个用真金白银下注的投资人，这些“宏大”指标颗粒度还是太粗，容易掩盖细节，甚至真相。我想更细致而微、更具参考价值的三个另类数据视角，谈谈我们究竟在哪？我用三率：失业率、复工率、产能利用率。做生意的都知道，上面三个指标，才是居民和企业的资产负债表，是民生脉搏，是经济真相。先谈失业率。就业意味着工资，意味着收入，意味着需求，意味着消费与社零。失业率是宏观经济学最重要的指标，没有之一。但很遗憾，我们没有符合传统经济学意义的失业率指标。我们的城镇登记失业率与调查失业率，更像一个可防可控的安民告示，参考价值相当有限。我们的城镇调查失业率，在3月，甚至不升反降：这不符合常识。我尝试着做了中国的菲利普斯曲线（一个反映失业率与通货膨胀率反向替代关系的经济学指标），结果在1998年国企为就业主力军以前，我们的菲利普斯曲线几乎是一条水平直线。1998年民企国企就业角色拐点后，菲利普斯曲线不是直线了，但也是失效的。所以，只能尝试用其他数据去接近真相。其中一个有意思的维度，是百度搜索指数。最新“失业”百度搜索指数大幅飙升，最新数值为过去十年均值的2.8倍：搜索“失业”，也可能是出于研究需要，指向性未见精确。但如果搜索“失业金领取条件”，指向性就异常明确了——搜索者大概率已处于失业状态：这个数据，3月底一度飙升到过去十年均值的16倍。最新数值，亦为过去十年均值的7倍。以我的细分行业模型，剔除餐饮、旅游、酒店、运输、养殖、娱乐、影视、房地产、教培这些显而易见受巨大冲击的行业，仅仅外贸相关行业，新增失业人数就可能接近2000万。格隆汇启动针对应届生的校园招聘后，每天会收到诸多愿意很低薪、甚至无薪要求的应聘材料。失业，不单单意味着需求的消失，更意味着社会经济基础代谢细胞的失能，甚至坏死。这就是我上一篇文章《疫情之后，何去何从》着重提的观点：忘掉GDP，保中小企业吧。保它们不死，就是保我们的未来不死。三、在正常经济条件下，复工率是一个没有任何存在价值的指标。但在疫情冲击下，它非常有意义，尤其是在湖北与武汉解封这个标志性事件后。但很遗憾，找不到任何权威的复工数据指标。我尝试用两个另类维度来还原我们经济复工的真实情况。一个是疫情前后的城市灯光。从Google地图上不难发现，疫情冲击下，2020年春节前后京津冀地区的灯光，大概只有2019年春节同期亮度的2-3成。而到了3月份，灯光基本恢复到了2019年正常水平的4-5成的水平：当然，灯光角度直观，但仍显粗糙，在判断精确度上存在瑕疵。好在，我们有第二个维度，中国核心城市的地铁客运量。以疫情前的客运量为Benchmark，对比疫情后数据恢复情况，用以反映城市的经济恢复程度，完全符合统计学的严谨与逻辑。真实数据是怎样的呢：三个结论：1、疫情对所有城市经济，几乎都造成了断崖式冲击；2、大城市的恢复速度，明显慢于中小城市；3、以中国9个核心城市的地铁客运量的算数平均值，可以推断出，截止4月中旬，中国整体复工率，大致为59.5%；这个数据意味着：依然有4成左右的企业，处于（隐性）停工状态。这与工信部产业政策与法规司“截至4月14日，全国规模以上工业企业平均开工率已达99%，全国中小企业复工率为84%”的提法，有显然的不匹配。于投资人而言，无疑更应该采信城市灯光与地铁客运量。遗憾在于，地铁客运量这个数据，无法回答这4成企业未复工的原因：是因为倒闭，歇业，还是暂时的冬眠，或者蛰伏？等四月份数据出来了，上面的答案，也就基本出来了。四、之所以要追加产能利用率这个指标，是因为复工率是一个中间层指标。很多企业开门是开门了，但可能只是部分运转，努力扛着，不让自己消失而已。所谓的“出工不出力”，大致描述的就是这种状态。先看看统计局的数据。2018年，中国工业产能利用率76.5%，2019年为76.6%，这些年来，都非常平稳。到2020年3月，这个数据跳水了差不多10个百分点，到67.3%：这是为数不多的能互相佐证的数据。能作为证明的，是同期用电量数据：克强三指标，发电量、货运量、信贷量，最不容易造假的就是发（用）电量。没有人会闲来无事，把机器空转着玩。产能利用率一口气下十个点，这种情况只有两种情形下发生：1、没有订单；2、还是没有订单；所以，我在商学院讲课的时候，给所有企业家的建议都是：你不要看GDP。你做决策，是要扩张，是收缩，还是干脆止损回家，盯订单就对了。盯消失的订单，是暂时消失，还是永久消失。盯在手订单，还有多少，可以重来？尾声说了这么多，我想，我已经把我们在哪里，基本说清楚了。很遗憾，我没法告诉你，我们会去往哪里？剩下的，说两句投资。我们面临着自上世纪30年代以来最大的经济萧条——并不是每个人都充分相信并理解了这句话的内涵。人类每次大型经济危机，本质是都是技术进步导致的需求过剩。通过危机的方式，需求与供给会重新回到一个较低的水平上达致平衡，直到新一轮技术革命创造出新的需求为止。从19世纪60年代蒸汽机革命以来，每轮这种繁荣期，大概都维持在60年的水平，而后会通过20-25年的时间去消化。我们这轮繁荣，源自上世纪60年代开始的芯片革命。周期已至，疫情只是加速周期的到来而已。在可预见的未来，看不到革命性的技术会出现。这意味着，无论是全球经济，还是股市，未来都会在一个区间内休憩、整理，基本不会存在单极走向的可能。当然，这并不妨碍那些集聚着人类最优秀进化基因的公司继续旺盛。在如此骇人的疫情下，亚马逊与与奈飞的股价依然创了历史新高。事实上，投资简单，但不容易。市场经常会重奖错误的行为，以鼓励他们下一次慷慨赴死。而坚持做，且只做正确的事，并愿意为此放弃市场先生颁发给错误行为的奖金，这才是通向成功的唯一路径。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916900744,"gmtCreate":1579185054488,"gmtModify":1704339189675,"author":{"id":"3541969107472684","authorId":"3541969107472684","name":"LCQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80f943eda3518e45e54eee3e81f3ba07","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"第一次打新$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$","listText":"第一次打新$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$","text":"第一次打新$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f743b7531e11b7414270f3292aab3"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916900744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541507063994827","authorId":"3541507063994827","name":"爱新觉罗J","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我也是第一次，不知道中不中","text":"我也是第一次，不知道中不中","html":"我也是第一次，不知道中不中"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":916900744,"gmtCreate":1579185054488,"gmtModify":1704339189675,"author":{"id":"3541969107472684","authorId":"3541969107472684","name":"LCQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80f943eda3518e45e54eee3e81f3ba07","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"第一次打新$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$","listText":"第一次打新$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$","text":"第一次打新$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f1f743b7531e11b7414270f3292aab3"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916900744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"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