金牛夫人的个人主页 - 老虎社区

金牛夫人

金牛夫人

风物长宜放眼量

IP属地：海外

27关注

10粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2023-09-26

这个媒体专业黑特斯拉

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-08-26

$VinFast Auto(VFS)$

2023-08-25

$VinFast Auto(VFS)$ 哪个散户去接盘？让庄家自导自演去

2023-07-20

我看你要疯

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-04-10

扯

担忧美国经济衰退，美国投资者纷纷加码海外股票

2023-04-06

看来又不被市场待见，盘后又继续跌

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-04-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 业绩也没有很差啊，为什么天天大跌

2023-04-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今晚为啥跌？

2023-03-10

羡慕你特斯拉高点抛了

@iAm22:$亚马逊(AMZN)$

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

$苹果(AAPL)$ 还是坚持认为加息不会那么激进！因为现在美国的企业真的开始悲观了…

2023-03-02

我每天都用b站，用户粘性极大

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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哪个散户去接盘？让庄家自导自演去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/212732436918488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":200011930976400,"gmtCreate":1689863106063,"gmtModify":1689863107477,"author":{"id":"3538630658376932","authorId":"3538630658376932","name":"金牛夫人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13824992342846d5fb975e71527a508a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3538630658376932","authorIdStr":"3538630658376932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我看你要疯","listText":"我看你要疯","text":"我看你要疯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/200011930976400","repostId":"2352017355","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653520662,"gmtCreate":1681130556156,"gmtModify":1681130557780,"author":{"id":"3538630658376932","authorId":"3538630658376932","name":"金牛夫人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13824992342846d5fb975e71527a508a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3538630658376932","authorIdStr":"3538630658376932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"扯","listText":"扯","text":"扯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653520662","repostId":"1163027471","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163027471","pubTimestamp":1681097380,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163027471?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-10 11:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"担忧美国经济衰退，美国投资者纷纷加码海外股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163027471","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年迄今为止，投资者已从美国股票基金中撤出340亿美元，与之相对的是，中国股票基金流入160亿美元，欧洲流入100亿美元。利率上升和经济衰退的阴云笼罩下，美国投资者纷纷逃离美股，加码海外股票。据媒体周","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>今年迄今为止，投资者已从美国股票基金中撤出340亿美元，与之相对的是，中国股票基金流入160亿美元，欧洲流入100亿美元。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利率上升和经济衰退的阴云笼罩下，美国投资者纷纷逃离美股，加码海外股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据媒体周日报道，数据提供商EPFR的数据显示，<strong>今年迄今为止，投资者已从美国股票基金中撤出340亿美元。而与之相对的是，欧洲吸引了100亿美元的资金流入；买入新兴市场股票的340亿美元资金中，160亿美元流入了中国股票基金。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27d8fc08798801449712e2065d73225b\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"428\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一趋势令资产管理公司认识到了投资多元化的必要性，管理规模达1.3万亿美元的T Rowe Price首席执行官Rob Sharps指出：</p><blockquote>如果你看看我们资产管理的分布，我们多数集中在美国股票领域。T Rowe正在努力提高其在投资国际固定收益和全球股票方面的能力，虽然我们以活跃的美国股票领域出名，但我们很想在其他资产类别中拓展能力。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，管理1430亿美元资产的PineBridge Investments在其最新战略报告中表示：</p><blockquote><strong>考虑到如今的美股估值过高，加上即将到来的信贷紧缩和银行风险，以及美联储撤回对债券市场的支持，对广泛的美股采取了更谨慎的立场。相对的是，对包括中国和印度在内的新兴市场持更积极的立场。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管如此，目前美国仍然稳固地保持着全球最大的股票市场地位，标普500指数的市值达到34万亿美元。但贝莱德投资研究所认为，未来情况可能改变：</p><blockquote>未来几十年，美国股市表现将逊于新兴市场、欧洲和中国股市。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>担忧美国经济衰退，美国投资者纷纷加码海外股票</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n担忧美国经济衰退，美国投资者纷纷加码海外股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-10 11:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686062><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年迄今为止，投资者已从美国股票基金中撤出340亿美元，与之相对的是，中国股票基金流入160亿美元，欧洲流入100亿美元。利率上升和经济衰退的阴云笼罩下，美国投资者纷纷逃离美股，加码海外股票。据媒体周日报道，数据提供商EPFR的数据显示，今年迄今为止，投资者已从美国股票基金中撤出340亿美元。而与之相对的是，欧洲吸引了100亿美元的资金流入；买入新兴市场股票的340亿美元资金中，160亿美元流入了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686062\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686062","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163027471","content_text":"今年迄今为止，投资者已从美国股票基金中撤出340亿美元，与之相对的是，中国股票基金流入160亿美元，欧洲流入100亿美元。利率上升和经济衰退的阴云笼罩下，美国投资者纷纷逃离美股，加码海外股票。据媒体周日报道，数据提供商EPFR的数据显示，今年迄今为止，投资者已从美国股票基金中撤出340亿美元。而与之相对的是，欧洲吸引了100亿美元的资金流入；买入新兴市场股票的340亿美元资金中，160亿美元流入了中国股票基金。这一趋势令资产管理公司认识到了投资多元化的必要性，管理规模达1.3万亿美元的T Rowe Price首席执行官Rob Sharps指出：如果你看看我们资产管理的分布，我们多数集中在美国股票领域。T Rowe正在努力提高其在投资国际固定收益和全球股票方面的能力，虽然我们以活跃的美国股票领域出名，但我们很想在其他资产类别中拓展能力。与此同时，管理1430亿美元资产的PineBridge 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19:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国科技股，纯粹一群疯子","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2352017355","media":"格隆汇","summary":"羡慕嫉妒恨","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：深鹏</p><p>股民今年的三大错觉，其中一个必不可少：</p><p><strong>美国科技股泡沫严重，要崩！</strong></p><p>好在说了是错觉，如果真的当真，那就硬生生不知要错过多少个小目标？</p><p>进入财报季，美股依然没有半点腐朽资本主义要崩溃的迹象，即使是上半年风声鹤唳的银行股，财报都超出市场预期，如大摩，Q2净利润同比下滑13%，但优于分析师预期的下滑20%，美银Q2营收同比增长11%，至253.3亿美元，小幅超出分析师预期的250.5亿美元，净利息收入增长14%至142亿美元，利润同比增长19%达到74亿美元，每股收益88美分，小幅超出分析师预期的84美分。靠着两大银行股的带动，道琼斯指数当晚被拔高了1%，成功突破了去年底的高位。</p><p>不过，银行股还算小case了，真正的大牛板块，是科技股。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股价连创历史新高，连马斯克都惊呼“疯狂”。</p><p>今天凌晨（北京时间），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在盘后公布了Q2财报，营收、净利润指标都超出市场预期，不过由于降价太多，毛利率比上季跌了一个点，到18.2%，现金流情况也只有10亿美元，两个指标均不及市场预期。</p><p>特斯拉盘后交易股价受到财报的影响，一度大跌近4个点。</p><p>但实际上，特斯拉的财报表现整体看还是不错的，股价下跌也有之前上涨太大、杀期权等因素影响。虽然数据没有两个月前英伟达般炸裂，但相信经历短暂调整之后，还是有能力给美股科技板块上涨加上一把火。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfe584b7d1909d94f83027dff3414d3b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>因为，美国的科技股，实在太疯狂了。</p><h3 id=\"id_1207342012\">科技股有多疯狂？</h3><p>今年，全球都对高利率下的美国经济增长缺乏信心，但就是在这样的大环境下，美国科技股硬生生造出了一个牛市，而且不是小牛市，而是一个大牛市，甚至可以说以一己之力把整个美国股市带上上涨通道。</p><p>众多的科技股，不管体量大小，都涨出很多个小目标，创历史新高的也不在少数，微软、google、meta、英伟达、特斯拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，都是其中的代表。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df56be8a70c9f4d766a23214ebfaa1c9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>当然了，你可以说这都是拜chatGPT引发的人工智能革命的福，但能够创造出这项技术并且开展大规模商业化，那你也得佩服得五体投地，要不然呢？其他国家也可以去引领一下啊，又没有人拦着他们。</p><p>这也揭示了一个简单的市场逻辑：<strong>如果能够占据未来的技术高点，能够创造出巨大的价值，当下的经济好还是不好，其实根本无所谓，资本是愿意为这样的未来买单的。</strong></p><p>如果你只是把眼光局限于现在美国通胀高，利率高，经济衰退风险大，那只能说目光太短浅了。与未来产业革命的星辰大海相比，经济周期显得短暂多了。</p><p>试想一下，1970年代末兴起的计算机革命，绵延至今长达40多年，一路扶摇直上，这个过程中经历了多少经济周期，有多少低谷？</p><p>单单称得上世界级别的，就有1980年代初美国的经济调整、1990年代初的美国经济衰退、97年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲金融</a>危机、2000年科技股泡沫破裂、911事件、阿富汗和伊拉克战争、非典、08年金融危机，以及现在的新冠和俄乌战争。</p><p>经济周期是起起落落，但计算机和互联网革命却从未停止增长的脚步。</p><p>这一波人工智能革命已经被公认为可以改变世界，并且会比人类历史上前几次工业革命的价值还要高，如此光明且广阔的未来，也难怪资本市场会如此地趋之若鹜。</p><p>另外，美股科技股货真价实的比较多，最重要的是人家确实是交得出业绩，这点和国内的蹭热点公司有很大差别，所以美股可以一路上涨，而只是纯粹蹭概念的公司，硬不过三个月，大起大落，疯狂过后一地鸡毛，是常态。</p><p>另外，今年的美国科技股大牛市，也有一个前提，那就是去年它们普遍经历了崩盘式的下跌。</p><p>英伟达，从346美元的高位跌至108美元，跌幅68%；特斯拉，从414美元跌至101美元，跌幅76%；最惨的要数meta，从384美元跌至88美元，跌幅接近80%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、google这些，虽然跌幅没有那么大，但也基本腰斩，只有苹果、微软相对抗跌，不过也蒸发了3-4成。而整个纳斯达克指数，跌幅最大也接近40%。</p><p>实际上，这里有一个不成文的“规律”，就是美股有基本面支撑的大型科技公司，在股灾中跌幅到7成、8成的时候，一般就会见底，这是通过对美股大跌期的统计而得。之所以说不能成文，是因为无法确定下一次是否如此，毕竟决定股价的因素太过复杂，同时市场本身也会不断产生新的因素，单纯依靠过往经验就断定历史重演，未必完全正确。</p><p>我们只是想强调，做投资逆向思维的重要性，如果股价跌幅巨大，需要考虑一下是否会触底反弹，而不是简单地顺着惯性和线性推理。</p><p>这大概就是咱们中国人说的否极泰来吧。</p><p>总的来说，这一波美股科技股大牛市，有两大驱动因素，一方面是对于去年大跌后的修复，另一方面则是人工智能的爆发。如果说去年是双杀，那今年无疑是双击。</p><p>问题是，这股牛市风潮，还能继续下去吗？</p><h3 id=\"id_1421404437\">还能疯下去吗？</h3><p>美股作为成熟且体制机制完善的市场，相对新兴国家而言容易理解和琢磨。</p><p>比如经济是股市的晴雨表，这点在美股就有很大的体现，2020年疫情爆发之后美股疯狂上涨，很多人归结于美联储的大放水，流动性泛滥，但实际上，美联储的钱也并没有全部流入股市，更多的是给美国家庭发钱，让他们在封控条件下依然可以有钱过日子。</p><p>这点虽然说有弊端，比如后来的高通胀，但对于拯救疫情下的美国经济却是立竿见影，<strong>因为美国家庭消费是GDP最大的来源，只要美国家庭还在消费，那宏观经济就没啥问题。</strong></p><p>2020年，美国GDP负增长2.8%，但次年就回到5.9%，剔除低基数影响，实际增长也有3%左右，说发钱让美国经济火热，一点都不为过。要知道，特朗普作为生意人总统，在位期间，没有一年的经济增速达到过3%。当然了，发钱这个事也是他在位期间决策的。</p><p>因此，从宏观层面上看，美股能否继续狂飙，经济基本面是一个比较重要的决定性因素。</p><p>综合最近的美国经济数据看，不管是劳动力市场，还是通胀水平，亦或其他的如PPI、PMI等经济指标，有参差，但韧性依然在。尽管高利率的压制效应正在发挥作用，但并没有想象中强烈，反而显得相对温和，这也重燃了市场对于今年美国经济软着陆的信心。</p><p><strong>所以，只要美国经济不出现大的衰退，美股整体上还是会延续上涨趋势，上涨节奏就取决于未来的经济数据，以及美联储的货币政策。</strong></p><p>至于板块方面，科技股仍然是最热门的，尤其是和人工智能相关的板块。不过，上涨幅度除了各大科技公司的动作，还要看他们的业绩。</p><p>美股很现实，对于业绩决定涨跌的逻辑也很认可。4月份特斯拉来了一个深度调整，5月份英伟达一夜狂飙30%，都是业绩决定的。</p><p>因此，特别是这两个月，关注科技公司的中期业绩，是投资决策最重要的依据。</p><p>从估值上看，美股科技股相对处于合理区间，苹果、微软、google这类巨无霸的PE基本都在30上下，英伟达、特斯拉这类成长性比较充足的估值相对较高，不过业绩高增的确定性做了一定的对冲，除非增长逻辑被证伪，否则要掉下来也不容易。</p><p>拉长时间看，随着人工智能各种技术的演进，以及商业化的扩大，AI概念股依然是最有能力享受市场追捧的板块，而美国相应的概念公司，实力都是摆在那的，没有太大的基本面问题，需要考虑的，是值不值得追高。</p><p>这个，就看各位的风险意识了。因为过去的经验告诉我们，有的股票，你觉得是泡沫，害怕得很，但人家就偏偏涨给你看。</p><h3 id=\"id_2738912095\">唯美股是瞻？</h3><p>讲起美股的今年的大涨，国内股民可能很不是滋味。</p><p>除了去年11月解封之后有过几个月的狂欢，后面就持续地低迷，虽然A股也不乏题材，比如AI、中特估，但如果不是踩中这两个概念的，基本是亏多盈少。</p><p>最基本的因素肯定是经济面，其实美股的指数也是科技股撑起来的，传统的价值股并没有太多表现。区别只是，美国经济基本面似乎正在扭转预期，所以传统价值股也可能正迎来机会，但国内经济基本面就依然压力重重，传统价值股路在何方，谁知道？</p><p>下半年要是寄望于经济面有超预期表现，似乎有困难，只能看上头有什么“特效药”了。不过也并非全是悲观，说不定会有一些概念性的机会，比如AI继续发酵。这个得寄希望于美国那边，技术突破也好，新的AI应用也罢，总之要倒腾出一些资本市场喜欢的概念，这样我们就有了跟随炒作的理由。</p><p>虽然这些年时不时炒作A股独立，中国特色的股市，貌似成功脱离了资本主义世界的束缚，但实际上，国内的概念炒作，基本上还是受美股的影响比较大，作为跟随者的角色并没有根本性的改变。</p><p>就拿AI来说，若不是美国出了个chatGPT，国内AI概念也无从炒起，此前的新能源汽车也是一样，若不是特斯拉爆发，国内的炒作也无从说起。其实，我们自己也很多AI公司，很多新能源公司，但能够牵起巨浪的，始终是美国。</p><p>认清这点其实很重要，因为容易找到“锚”，也容易抄作业。</p><p>说真的，希望美国科技公司们，继续疯下去，千万不要停，并且多多倒腾出一些新的科技概念，因为下半年的炒作，还得靠这帮万恶的资本家。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国科技股，纯粹一群疯子\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-20 19:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/625002><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：深鹏股民今年的三大错觉，其中一个必不可少：美国科技股泡沫严重，要崩！好在说了是错觉，如果真的当真，那就硬生生不知要错过多少个小目标？进入财报季，美股依然没有半点腐朽资本主义要崩溃的迹象，即使是上半年风声鹤唳的银行股，财报都超出市场预期，如大摩，Q2净利润同比下滑13%，但优于分析师预期的下滑20%，美银Q2营收同比增长11%，至253.3亿美元，小幅超出分析师预期的250.5亿美元，净...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/625002\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8693e4c1020f90549d9470b7220505","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/625002","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2352017355","content_text":"作者：深鹏股民今年的三大错觉，其中一个必不可少：美国科技股泡沫严重，要崩！好在说了是错觉，如果真的当真，那就硬生生不知要错过多少个小目标？进入财报季，美股依然没有半点腐朽资本主义要崩溃的迹象，即使是上半年风声鹤唳的银行股，财报都超出市场预期，如大摩，Q2净利润同比下滑13%，但优于分析师预期的下滑20%，美银Q2营收同比增长11%，至253.3亿美元，小幅超出分析师预期的250.5亿美元，净利息收入增长14%至142亿美元，利润同比增长19%达到74亿美元，每股收益88美分，小幅超出分析师预期的84美分。靠着两大银行股的带动，道琼斯指数当晚被拔高了1%，成功突破了去年底的高位。不过，银行股还算小case了，真正的大牛板块，是科技股。英伟达和微软股价连创历史新高，连马斯克都惊呼“疯狂”。今天凌晨（北京时间），特斯拉在盘后公布了Q2财报，营收、净利润指标都超出市场预期，不过由于降价太多，毛利率比上季跌了一个点，到18.2%，现金流情况也只有10亿美元，两个指标均不及市场预期。特斯拉盘后交易股价受到财报的影响，一度大跌近4个点。但实际上，特斯拉的财报表现整体看还是不错的，股价下跌也有之前上涨太大、杀期权等因素影响。虽然数据没有两个月前英伟达般炸裂，但相信经历短暂调整之后，还是有能力给美股科技板块上涨加上一把火。因为，美国的科技股，实在太疯狂了。科技股有多疯狂？今年，全球都对高利率下的美国经济增长缺乏信心，但就是在这样的大环境下，美国科技股硬生生造出了一个牛市，而且不是小牛市，而是一个大牛市，甚至可以说以一己之力把整个美国股市带上上涨通道。众多的科技股，不管体量大小，都涨出很多个小目标，创历史新高的也不在少数，微软、google、meta、英伟达、特斯拉、苹果，都是其中的代表。当然了，你可以说这都是拜chatGPT引发的人工智能革命的福，但能够创造出这项技术并且开展大规模商业化，那你也得佩服得五体投地，要不然呢？其他国家也可以去引领一下啊，又没有人拦着他们。这也揭示了一个简单的市场逻辑：如果能够占据未来的技术高点，能够创造出巨大的价值，当下的经济好还是不好，其实根本无所谓，资本是愿意为这样的未来买单的。如果你只是把眼光局限于现在美国通胀高，利率高，经济衰退风险大，那只能说目光太短浅了。与未来产业革命的星辰大海相比，经济周期显得短暂多了。试想一下，1970年代末兴起的计算机革命，绵延至今长达40多年，一路扶摇直上，这个过程中经历了多少经济周期，有多少低谷？单单称得上世界级别的，就有1980年代初美国的经济调整、1990年代初的美国经济衰退、97年亚洲金融危机、2000年科技股泡沫破裂、911事件、阿富汗和伊拉克战争、非典、08年金融危机，以及现在的新冠和俄乌战争。经济周期是起起落落，但计算机和互联网革命却从未停止增长的脚步。这一波人工智能革命已经被公认为可以改变世界，并且会比人类历史上前几次工业革命的价值还要高，如此光明且广阔的未来，也难怪资本市场会如此地趋之若鹜。另外，美股科技股货真价实的比较多，最重要的是人家确实是交得出业绩，这点和国内的蹭热点公司有很大差别，所以美股可以一路上涨，而只是纯粹蹭概念的公司，硬不过三个月，大起大落，疯狂过后一地鸡毛，是常态。另外，今年的美国科技股大牛市，也有一个前提，那就是去年它们普遍经历了崩盘式的下跌。英伟达，从346美元的高位跌至108美元，跌幅68%；特斯拉，从414美元跌至101美元，跌幅76%；最惨的要数meta，从384美元跌至88美元，跌幅接近80%。亚马逊、google这些，虽然跌幅没有那么大，但也基本腰斩，只有苹果、微软相对抗跌，不过也蒸发了3-4成。而整个纳斯达克指数，跌幅最大也接近40%。实际上，这里有一个不成文的“规律”，就是美股有基本面支撑的大型科技公司，在股灾中跌幅到7成、8成的时候，一般就会见底，这是通过对美股大跌期的统计而得。之所以说不能成文，是因为无法确定下一次是否如此，毕竟决定股价的因素太过复杂，同时市场本身也会不断产生新的因素，单纯依靠过往经验就断定历史重演，未必完全正确。我们只是想强调，做投资逆向思维的重要性，如果股价跌幅巨大，需要考虑一下是否会触底反弹，而不是简单地顺着惯性和线性推理。这大概就是咱们中国人说的否极泰来吧。总的来说，这一波美股科技股大牛市，有两大驱动因素，一方面是对于去年大跌后的修复，另一方面则是人工智能的爆发。如果说去年是双杀，那今年无疑是双击。问题是，这股牛市风潮，还能继续下去吗？还能疯下去吗？美股作为成熟且体制机制完善的市场，相对新兴国家而言容易理解和琢磨。比如经济是股市的晴雨表，这点在美股就有很大的体现，2020年疫情爆发之后美股疯狂上涨，很多人归结于美联储的大放水，流动性泛滥，但实际上，美联储的钱也并没有全部流入股市，更多的是给美国家庭发钱，让他们在封控条件下依然可以有钱过日子。这点虽然说有弊端，比如后来的高通胀，但对于拯救疫情下的美国经济却是立竿见影，因为美国家庭消费是GDP最大的来源，只要美国家庭还在消费，那宏观经济就没啥问题。2020年，美国GDP负增长2.8%，但次年就回到5.9%，剔除低基数影响，实际增长也有3%左右，说发钱让美国经济火热，一点都不为过。要知道，特朗普作为生意人总统，在位期间，没有一年的经济增速达到过3%。当然了，发钱这个事也是他在位期间决策的。因此，从宏观层面上看，美股能否继续狂飙，经济基本面是一个比较重要的决定性因素。综合最近的美国经济数据看，不管是劳动力市场，还是通胀水平，亦或其他的如PPI、PMI等经济指标，有参差，但韧性依然在。尽管高利率的压制效应正在发挥作用，但并没有想象中强烈，反而显得相对温和，这也重燃了市场对于今年美国经济软着陆的信心。所以，只要美国经济不出现大的衰退，美股整体上还是会延续上涨趋势，上涨节奏就取决于未来的经济数据，以及美联储的货币政策。至于板块方面，科技股仍然是最热门的，尤其是和人工智能相关的板块。不过，上涨幅度除了各大科技公司的动作，还要看他们的业绩。美股很现实，对于业绩决定涨跌的逻辑也很认可。4月份特斯拉来了一个深度调整，5月份英伟达一夜狂飙30%，都是业绩决定的。因此，特别是这两个月，关注科技公司的中期业绩，是投资决策最重要的依据。从估值上看，美股科技股相对处于合理区间，苹果、微软、google这类巨无霸的PE基本都在30上下，英伟达、特斯拉这类成长性比较充足的估值相对较高，不过业绩高增的确定性做了一定的对冲，除非增长逻辑被证伪，否则要掉下来也不容易。拉长时间看，随着人工智能各种技术的演进，以及商业化的扩大，AI概念股依然是最有能力享受市场追捧的板块，而美国相应的概念公司，实力都是摆在那的，没有太大的基本面问题，需要考虑的，是值不值得追高。这个，就看各位的风险意识了。因为过去的经验告诉我们，有的股票，你觉得是泡沫，害怕得很，但人家就偏偏涨给你看。唯美股是瞻？讲起美股的今年的大涨，国内股民可能很不是滋味。除了去年11月解封之后有过几个月的狂欢，后面就持续地低迷，虽然A股也不乏题材，比如AI、中特估，但如果不是踩中这两个概念的，基本是亏多盈少。最基本的因素肯定是经济面，其实美股的指数也是科技股撑起来的，传统的价值股并没有太多表现。区别只是，美国经济基本面似乎正在扭转预期，所以传统价值股也可能正迎来机会，但国内经济基本面就依然压力重重，传统价值股路在何方，谁知道？下半年要是寄望于经济面有超预期表现，似乎有困难，只能看上头有什么“特效药”了。不过也并非全是悲观，说不定会有一些概念性的机会，比如AI继续发酵。这个得寄希望于美国那边，技术突破也好，新的AI应用也罢，总之要倒腾出一些资本市场喜欢的概念，这样我们就有了跟随炒作的理由。虽然这些年时不时炒作A股独立，中国特色的股市，貌似成功脱离了资本主义世界的束缚，但实际上，国内的概念炒作，基本上还是受美股的影响比较大，作为跟随者的角色并没有根本性的改变。就拿AI来说，若不是美国出了个chatGPT，国内AI概念也无从炒起，此前的新能源汽车也是一样，若不是特斯拉爆发，国内的炒作也无从说起。其实，我们自己也很多AI公司，很多新能源公司，但能够牵起巨浪的，始终是美国。认清这点其实很重要，因为容易找到“锚”，也容易抄作业。说真的，希望美国科技公司们，继续疯下去，千万不要停，并且多多倒腾出一些新的科技概念，因为下半年的炒作，还得靠这帮万恶的资本家。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627063656,"gmtCreate":1677772235876,"gmtModify":1677772750213,"author":{"id":"3538630658376932","authorId":"3538630658376932","name":"金牛夫人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13824992342846d5fb975e71527a508a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3538630658376932","idStr":"3538630658376932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我每天都用b站，用户粘性极大","listText":"我每天都用b站，用户粘性极大","text":"我每天都用b站，用户粘性极大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627063656","repostId":"1190656437","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190656437","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677769614,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190656437?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-02 23:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"哔哩哔哩由跌转涨，Q4日均活跃用户同比增长29%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190656437","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月2日，哔哩哔哩持续拉升，现涨近5%，盘初一度跌6%；B站四季度日均活跃用户同比增长29%，毛利率提升至20.3%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>持续拉升，现涨近5%，盘初一度跌6%；B站四季度日均活跃用户同比增长29%，毛利率提升至20.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d5dcb17db87eaf50cf3e8fba0cad5f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>哔哩哔哩由跌转涨，Q4日均活跃用户同比增长29%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n哔哩哔哩由跌转涨，Q4日均活跃用户同比增长29%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-02 23:06</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>持续拉升，现涨近5%，盘初一度跌6%；B站四季度日均活跃用户同比增长29%，毛利率提升至20.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d5dcb17db87eaf50cf3e8fba0cad5f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/175fbf5f75752267f2ac52ba7750f15a","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4510":"在线教育","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W","BK1104":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4577":"网络游戏"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190656437","content_text":"3月2日，哔哩哔哩持续拉升，现涨近5%，盘初一度跌6%；B站四季度日均活跃用户同比增长29%，毛利率提升至20.3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":224049929478328,"gmtCreate":1695736847301,"gmtModify":1695736848791,"author":{"id":"3538630658376932","authorId":"3538630658376932","name":"金牛夫人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13824992342846d5fb975e71527a508a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3538630658376932","idStr":"3538630658376932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个媒体专业黑特斯拉","listText":"这个媒体专业黑特斯拉","text":"这个媒体专业黑特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224049929478328","repostId":"2370276473","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2370276473","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1695736566,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2370276473?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-26 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian's Stock Is a Bullish \"Fresh Pick\" Ahead of Deliveries Data, Tesla's Not so Much","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2370276473","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"Baird analyst Ben Kallo says Rivian is seeing strong demand, refuting reports that demand is weakening. Rivian Automotive Inc.'s stock was designated Tuesday as a bullish \"fresh pick\" by Baird analyst Ben Kallo ahead of the electric-vehicle maker's deliveries report due out next week, which he believes will beat Wall Street forecasts.While Kallo was also bullish on EV giant Tesla Inc.'s stock , and considered it a \"top pick\" for the second half of 2023, his forecast for third-quarter deliveries of 439,200 fell below the current FactSet consensus of 462,000.Shares of Rivian  rose 0.8% in premarket trading, while Tesla's stock slipped 0.6%.Instead, Kallo said, he believes underlying demand remains strong, particularly for the R1S electric sport-utility vehicle, with production improving.\"We see [third-quarter] deliveries as a near-term catalyst and expect sentiment to improve as [Rivian] continues to realize cost benefits from an improving supply chain and the use of in-house components,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Rivian Automotive Inc.&#39;s stock was designated Tuesday as a bullish &#34;fresh pick&#34; by Baird analyst Ben Kallo ahead of the electric-vehicle maker&#39;s deliveries report due out next week, which he believes will beat Wall Street forecasts.</p><p>While Kallo was also bullish on EV giant Tesla Inc.&#39;s stock <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and considered it a &#34;top pick&#34; for the second half of 2023, his forecast for third-quarter deliveries of 439,200 fell below the current FactSet consensus of 462,000.</p><p>Shares of Rivian <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$(RIVN)$</a> rose 0.8% in premarket trading, while Tesla&#39;s stock slipped 0.6%.</p><p>Kallo said concerns over reports of weakening Rivian demand have recently hurt the stock, which has lost 7.0% so far in September after tumbling 17.8% in August. That selloff followed a three-month surge in which the stock more than doubled (up 116%).</p><p>Instead, Kallo said, he believes underlying demand remains strong, particularly for the R1S electric sport-utility vehicle, with production improving.</p><p>&#34;We see [third-quarter] deliveries as a near-term catalyst and expect sentiment to improve as [Rivian] continues to realize cost benefits from an improving supply chain and the use of in-house components,&#34; Kallo wrote.</p><p>Rivian is expected to report production and deliveries data on or about Oct. 3, with the FactSet consensus for deliveries at 14,000.</p><p>Kallo reiterated his outperform rating on Rivian&#39;s stock and his $30 price target, which implies 42% upside from Monday&#39;s closing price of $21.13.</p><p>Kallo said that there is &#34;confusion&#34; among Wall Street analysts regarding third-quarter deliveries based on the company&#39;s planned factory downtime, as well as questions regarding demand following price cuts.</p><p>While FactSet&#39;s latest &#34;consensus&#34; deliveries estimate for the third quarter is 462,000 EVs, that confusion has led to a wide range of estimates, from a low of 438,000 to a high of 511,000.</p><p>Kallo&#39;s delivery estimate of 439,200 implies about a 28% increase from a year ago but a 6% decline from the second quarter.</p><p>Regarding Tesla&#39;s refreshed Model 3, Kallo said early reviews have been positive and wait times suggest demand has been strong, particularly in China. However, deliveries are scheduled for early in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Rivian&#39;s stock has rallied 14.7% year to date while Tesla&#39;s stock has rocketed 100.5%. The S&amp;P 500 index SPX has gained 13% this year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian's Stock Is a Bullish \"Fresh Pick\" Ahead of Deliveries Data, Tesla's Not so Much</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian's Stock Is a Bullish \"Fresh Pick\" Ahead of Deliveries Data, Tesla's Not so Much\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-09-26 21:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Rivian Automotive Inc.&#39;s stock was designated Tuesday as a bullish &#34;fresh pick&#34; by Baird analyst Ben Kallo ahead of the electric-vehicle maker&#39;s deliveries report due out next week, which he believes will beat Wall Street forecasts.</p><p>While Kallo was also bullish on EV giant Tesla Inc.&#39;s stock <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>, and considered it a &#34;top pick&#34; for the second half of 2023, his forecast for third-quarter deliveries of 439,200 fell below the current FactSet consensus of 462,000.</p><p>Shares of Rivian <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$(RIVN)$</a> rose 0.8% in premarket trading, while Tesla&#39;s stock slipped 0.6%.</p><p>Kallo said concerns over reports of weakening Rivian demand have recently hurt the stock, which has lost 7.0% so far in September after tumbling 17.8% in August. That selloff followed a three-month surge in which the stock more than doubled (up 116%).</p><p>Instead, Kallo said, he believes underlying demand remains strong, particularly for the R1S electric sport-utility vehicle, with production improving.</p><p>&#34;We see [third-quarter] deliveries as a near-term catalyst and expect sentiment to improve as [Rivian] continues to realize cost benefits from an improving supply chain and the use of in-house components,&#34; Kallo wrote.</p><p>Rivian is expected to report production and deliveries data on or about Oct. 3, with the FactSet consensus for deliveries at 14,000.</p><p>Kallo reiterated his outperform rating on Rivian&#39;s stock and his $30 price target, which implies 42% upside from Monday&#39;s closing price of $21.13.</p><p>Kallo said that there is &#34;confusion&#34; among Wall Street analysts regarding third-quarter deliveries based on the company&#39;s planned factory downtime, as well as questions regarding demand following price cuts.</p><p>While FactSet&#39;s latest &#34;consensus&#34; deliveries estimate for the third quarter is 462,000 EVs, that confusion has led to a wide range of estimates, from a low of 438,000 to a high of 511,000.</p><p>Kallo&#39;s delivery estimate of 439,200 implies about a 28% increase from a year ago but a 6% decline from the second quarter.</p><p>Regarding Tesla&#39;s refreshed Model 3, Kallo said early reviews have been positive and wait times suggest demand has been strong, particularly in China. However, deliveries are scheduled for early in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Rivian&#39;s stock has rallied 14.7% year to date while Tesla&#39;s stock has rocketed 100.5%. The S&amp;P 500 index SPX has gained 13% this year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc"},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2370276473","content_text":"Rivian Automotive Inc.'s stock was designated Tuesday as a bullish \"fresh pick\" by Baird analyst Ben Kallo ahead of the electric-vehicle maker's deliveries report due out next week, which he believes will beat Wall Street forecasts.While Kallo was also bullish on EV giant Tesla Inc.'s stock $(TSLA)$, and considered it a \"top pick\" for the second half of 2023, his forecast for third-quarter deliveries of 439,200 fell below the current FactSet consensus of 462,000.Shares of Rivian $(RIVN)$ rose 0.8% in premarket trading, while Tesla's stock slipped 0.6%.Kallo said concerns over reports of weakening Rivian demand have recently hurt the stock, which has lost 7.0% so far in September after tumbling 17.8% in August. That selloff followed a three-month surge in which the stock more than doubled (up 116%).Instead, Kallo said, he believes underlying demand remains strong, particularly for the R1S electric sport-utility vehicle, with production improving.\"We see [third-quarter] deliveries as a near-term catalyst and expect sentiment to improve as [Rivian] continues to realize cost benefits from an improving supply chain and the use of in-house components,\" Kallo wrote.Rivian is expected to report production and deliveries data on or about Oct. 3, with the FactSet consensus for deliveries at 14,000.Kallo reiterated his outperform rating on Rivian's stock and his $30 price target, which implies 42% upside from Monday's closing price of $21.13.Kallo said that there is \"confusion\" among Wall Street analysts regarding third-quarter deliveries based on the company's planned factory downtime, as well as questions regarding demand following price cuts.While FactSet's latest \"consensus\" deliveries estimate for the third quarter is 462,000 EVs, that confusion has led to a wide range of estimates, from a low of 438,000 to a high of 511,000.Kallo's delivery estimate of 439,200 implies about a 28% increase from a year ago but a 6% decline from the second quarter.Regarding Tesla's refreshed Model 3, Kallo said early reviews have been positive and wait times suggest demand has been strong, particularly in China. However, deliveries are scheduled for early in the fourth quarter.Rivian's stock has rallied 14.7% year to date while Tesla's stock has rocketed 100.5%. The S&P 500 index SPX has gained 13% this year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":212760326000728,"gmtCreate":1692983249318,"gmtModify":1692983250003,"author":{"id":"3538630658376932","authorId":"3538630658376932","name":"金牛夫人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13824992342846d5fb975e71527a508a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3538630658376932","idStr":"3538630658376932"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VFS\">$VinFast Auto(VFS)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VFS\">$VinFast Auto(VFS)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$VinFast 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08:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉发布其宏图第三篇章（Master Plan Part 3）完整文件","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2325310483","media":"财通社","summary":"【特斯拉发布其宏图第三篇章（Master Plan Part 3）完整文件】特斯拉发布其宏图第三篇章（Master Plan Part 3）完整文件。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>发布其宏图第三篇章（Master Plan Part 3）完整文件】特斯拉发布其宏图第三篇章（Master Plan Part 3）完整文件。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉发布其宏图第三篇章（Master Plan Part 3）完整文件</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation 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