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心若向阳花自开

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心若向阳花自开

2020-04-09

$跟谁学(GSX)$就是相信陈向东的人品，能力和努力！

心若向阳花自开

2019-12-21

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 看好跟谁学，就因为信任

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-10

$跟谁学(GSX)$力挺跟谁学，因为相信！

心若向阳花自开

2020-05-04

$跟谁学(GSX)$40～45比较合理，今晚能上40不

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-07

$跟谁学(GSX)$加仓

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-02

$跟谁学(GSX)$好股，值得持有

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$能涨到800不

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$加油😊

心若向阳花自开

2020-12-14

浑水马上就可以闭嘴了

浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-09

$跟谁学(GSX)$涨上来啦[开心]

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-02

$跟谁学(GSX)$这时候可以买啦

心若向阳花自开

2020-04-09

我在二线半城市，我身边有好几个报了跟谁学的课

@无水:$跟谁学(GSX)$好未来我是听同事说，他家孩子抢报学而思，跟谁学如果不是做美股，还真不知道他是干嘛的，所以，他的市场真有那么大么？至少身边没人用[捂脸]

心若向阳花自开

2020-03-03

60没问题😊

@陈先生呀:$跟谁学(GSX)$ 兄弟们，这股能空了吗

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>加油😊","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$加油😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928319445","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394370423,"gmtCreate":1607955434162,"gmtModify":1703850287671,"author":{"id":"3538305853478514","authorId":"3538305853478514","name":"心若向阳花自开","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3538305853478514","authorIdStr":"3538305853478514"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"浑水马上就可以闭嘴了","listText":"浑水马上就可以闭嘴了","text":"浑水马上就可以闭嘴了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394370423","repostId":"1104367018","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104367018","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1607954708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104367018?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-14 22:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104367018","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”。","content":"<p>12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n浑水公司：跟谁学就是一个骗局，股价会跌至个位数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-14 22:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数</b>。</p><p>跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。</p><p>今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ebbfbd674b67aacd6004c666c704886\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><b>复盘第三季度财报</b></p><p>11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e01126a6408e1b614176a925d043ec0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"576\"></p><p>截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74a6be98605265e990c4d5da6cf6a6df\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。</p><p>更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。</p><p><b>企业财测与市场预期</b></p><p>目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1e48eddcb2ffd3f6cefa96c7bbff66d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\"></p><p>展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。</p><p><b>分析与评论</b></p><p>虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。</p><p>长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d2270f719183fc42b53ab41eb017c4a\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p>中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。</p><p>估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14bf13ffc922f55d858586c6c304ed65\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"368\"></p><p>现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。</p><p><b>最终结论</b></p><p>当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：</p><p>——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。</p><p>——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。</p><p>——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。</p><p>——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becc04985ddbb33452465c5ca9a971c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"683\"></p><p>——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。</p><p>——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。</p><p>很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。</p><p>如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f49cfbbad938b58f9d764c4f5e672e9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104367018","content_text":"12月14日消息，知名做空机构浑水公司最新表示：跟谁学就是一个骗局。一旦审计失败，股价就会跌至个位数。跟谁学盘前下挫，现跌1.75%。今年以来，跟谁学受到空头机构的“密集轰炸”，包括灰熊研究、香橼资本、天蝎创投，乃至大名鼎鼎的浑水都先后发布做空报告，总数达十余份，指责跟谁学存在财务表现数据造假，注册用户造假，流量刷单，乃至证券欺诈等问题，一时间跟谁学被坊间称作是被做空最多的中概股。虽然这些报告确实造成了跟谁学行情的剧烈波动，但是回望全年，该股依然涨幅惊人。复盘第三季度财报11月20日，跟谁学发布第三季度财报称，公司当季通用会计准则（GAAP）每股ADR（美国存托凭证）亏损0.57美元，净营收19.66亿元人民币，约合2.9亿美元，同比增长253%，延续了第二季度的强势。截至季度结束，跟谁学付费入学学生为125.6万人，同比增长134%，颇为强劲。在过去一年时间当中，各种疫情相关的趋势加速了线上学习需求的增长速度，使得行业迅速迎来了繁荣。然而，这种迅猛的增长也让跟谁学遇到了强劲的挑战，为了持续提供和过去同等品质的教育服务，他们的相关支出，从师资到辅导材料都大幅度增长。唯一可以庆幸的是，这些支出220%的同比增长速度还低于净所得的增速，使得毛利润率能够实现从71.9%到74.4%的同比增长。更加让人担心的是运营支出同比增幅达到了496%，远超过营收，导致运营亏损巨大。管理层宣称，这与销售支出，比如营销费用和销售团队的报酬增长有关。可是，换个视角来看，这其实是在竞争高度激烈的中国线上教育市场上，客户获取成本在增高。正是因为同样的原因，他们的研发支出也攀升了286%。当季调整后运营亏损为0.21亿元人民币，约合1.46亿美元，超过前一季度的1.07亿元人民币，而去年第三季度，他们一度还实现了700万人民币的盈利。企业财测与市场预期目前，跟谁学管理层的第四季度营收目标是在20.76亿至21.16亿元人民币之间，意味着将比2019年同期增长122%至126%。考虑到前九个月的表现，以及当下的货币汇率，华尔街认为该公司全年营收将为10.1亿美元的普遍预期与公司自己的财测是大致相符的。展望来年，市场目前预计该公司营收2021年将增长77%，之后的2022年增长49%。这一切有一个重大的前提，这就是今年入学的新生不流失，同时明年他们还将获取新的客户。在每股盈利方面，跟谁学明年预计将继续亏损，只是具体幅度从今年的0.59美元一路缩窄至2022年的0.30美元。分析与评论虽然过去一年时间当中，跟谁学股价涨幅可观，但是近几个月以来，波动也极为剧烈，较之8月的141美元下得55%以上，哪怕较之10月的120美元也低了46%。换言之，虽然营收增长令人印象深刻，但是盈利，乃至于调整后运营利润率等其实都令人失望，该公司并未证明自己具备将强势运营环境转化为运营利润的能力。长期而言，中国市场的竞争将持续激烈，而管理层想要留住优秀的师资人才，就必须付出非常可观的代价。如果他们不能用收入挽留住有限的人才，则服务品质就会下滑。虽然何一家企业而言，高增长都会伴随着挑战，但是当一家企业需要面对超过130万学生时，要保证所有人都满意，这挑战就更为巨大。在学生流失率较高的情况下，他们就必须在竞争方面更多付出，而这必然会让利润率受到更大的压迫。中国线上教育市场今年的一个新势头是，一些新兴企业正在试图以价格战撬开市场大门。诚然，2020年肯定是一个线上教育的大年，但是具体分析，跟谁学现在其实已经摘掉了所有最低的果子，而到了明年，伴随全球疫情退却，他们想要达成现在这样的增长预期其实已经很难了。估值方面，该股价格目前相当于过去一年销售额的18.8倍，2020年全年营收普遍预期的14.3倍，2021年普遍预期的8.1倍。无论怎么看，这增长溢价其实都已经贵过了大多数公司。跟谁学的关键之一就在于，虽然该公司是围绕一个科技平台建立起来的，但是他们需要给老师发工资，定期展开宣传活动来推动用户群增长，这也就意味着，它实质上带有鲜明的劳动力密集型和资本密集型色彩。可是，跟谁学的估值却已经可以和那些纯粹科技公司，或者是软件app公司等量齐观了，尽管后者显然更容易实现规模效应。现在，中国线上教育市场的大玩家远不止跟谁学一家，比如最大上市公司好未市值420亿美元，远超跟谁学的150亿美元。虽然好未来今年的增速没有跟谁学这么火爆，但是该公司已经实现了盈利和正向自由现金流。还有产品和服务更广泛的新东方，也实现了盈利。此外，还有新东方在线、海亮教育等也同样是疫情的重大获益者。虽然这些玩家都专注于市场的不同领域，业务模式也不尽相同，但是中国市场竞争激烈的局面无可改变，而这就可能会转化为价格压力，让跟谁学未来增长受限。最终结论当前价位意味着市场对于跟谁学的增长前景判断过于乐观，而实际上下跌风险巨大。具体而言，该公司和股票的麻烦在于：——虽然销售额和入学增长势头旺盛，但是运营亏损却在扩大。——为支持增长所负担的成本压力巨大，包括教师薪酬、营销支出等，这将严重限制盈利潜力。——虽然今年的表现在疫情推动下呈现强势，但是到2021年，伴随疫情结束，局面就可能反转过来。——强势增长之下，学生数以百万计，教师也成千上万，这就使得品控和消费者满意度的管理变得极为困难。——中国线上教育市场竞争极端激烈，若干家大玩家争夺相同的目标客户群，这就意味着价格将背负长期压力。——在本年度现金流为负数，且2022年预计将继续亏损的情况下，跟谁学股票的市销率却很高，意味着价格已经达到了极端水平。很可能，从下一个季度往后，市场将被迫不断调降跟谁学的各种长期增长预期，给股价造成越来越大的表现低于水准的压力。一旦他们财务前景恶化的势头变得明显，市场情绪也将急转直下，使得股价遭受到新一轮的打压。如果跟谁学不希望看到这一幕发生，那么他们就必须能够继续维持当下高企的成长动能，同时还让市场看到运营利润改善的迹象。在这方面，投资者可以关注毛利润率和运营支出等指标，以确定是否能够找到未来盈利潜力的积极信号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928997462,"gmtCreate":1586439464956,"gmtModify":1704361359123,"author":{"id":"3538305853478514","authorId":"3538305853478514","name":"心若向阳花自开","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3538305853478514","authorIdStr":"3538305853478514"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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