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飞不高的飞
2019-12-27
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
这都能下的来，厉害了我的大癌🤬
飞不高的飞
2021-06-23
$昭衍新药(06127)$
这货发生了什么事
飞不高的飞
2020-05-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
有啥利好吗？
飞不高的飞
2022-09-22
$零跑汽车(09863)$
领跑跑车好帅啊，公司附近有家门店在做展示[爱你] [爱你] [爱你]
飞不高的飞
2020-05-27
美股已经开涨了
抱歉，原内容已删除
飞不高的飞
2020-05-26
牛，赶紧奔五万点去
抱歉，原内容已删除
飞不高的飞
2020-05-26
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
我去⊙∀⊙！要上天了吧？
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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09:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>据路透社旗下媒体IFR：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>将于下周一在香港开始招股。网易对此回应称，不予置评。</span></p><p>早间香港信报报道，网易估计集资额较早前市传的10亿至20亿美元（约78亿至156亿港元）进一步增加，最新介乎20亿至30亿美元（约156亿元至234亿港元）。至于京东亦已初步敲定，暂计划在6月8日至11日公开招股。若按照上述时间表，投资者认购网易的资金将可及时回笼，再认购京东。</p><p>虽然近期港股市况浮沉偏软，但新经济股表现仍然突出，券商预期网易及京东认购情况会相当踊跃，3间本地散户常用的券商已合共预留逾千亿元的孖展额“应战”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d65337ce291de9c8891f137a53e675f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"9229\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8e0305a87df45caf56132a277d0132","relate_stocks":{"NTES":"网易"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154233710","content_text":"据路透社旗下媒体IFR：网易将于下周一在香港开始招股。网易对此回应称，不予置评。早间香港信报报道，网易估计集资额较早前市传的10亿至20亿美元（约78亿至156亿港元）进一步增加，最新介乎20亿至30亿美元（约156亿元至234亿港元）。至于京东亦已初步敲定，暂计划在6月8日至11日公开招股。若按照上述时间表，投资者认购网易的资金将可及时回笼，再认购京东。虽然近期港股市况浮沉偏软，但新经济股表现仍然突出，券商预期网易及京东认购情况会相当踊跃，3间本地散户常用的券商已合共预留逾千亿元的孖展额“应战”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953437276,"gmtCreate":1590503737595,"gmtModify":1704192735906,"author":{"id":"3533862916245582","authorId":"3533862916245582","name":"飞不高的飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e82876c9979116644056cd9c1067e092","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3533862916245582","authorIdStr":"3533862916245582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛，赶紧奔五万点去","listText":"牛，赶紧奔五万点去","text":"牛，赶紧奔五万点去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953437276","repostId":"1161811891","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161811891","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1590490235,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161811891?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-26 18:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“超级牛市”？疫情之后美股的三大投资机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161811891","media":"三思社","summary":"当前美股科技股估值很高，但与前两轮科技股泡沫相比还存在差距。美联储流动性宽松远没有达到高峰，而疫情减缓了科技巨头面临的来自政治层面的反垄断压力，这对科技股高估值形成支撑。生物科技板块是值得长期持有的核","content":"<p><span>当前美股科技股估值很高，但与前两轮科技股泡沫相比还存在差距。美联储流动性宽松远没有达到高峰，而疫情减缓了科技巨头面临的来自政治层面的反垄断压力，这对科技股高估值形成支撑。</span></p><p><b>生物科技板块是值得长期持有的核心资产</b><span>，经过疫情催化，很可能出现一波</span><b>超级牛市</b><span>。可参考2001年</span><b>911事件</b><span>后，国防开支增加驱动</span><b>美国国防军工板块长达10年</b><span>的超级牛市。</span></p><p><span>被超卖的</span><span><b>低质量公司</b></span><span>（即巴菲特所说的</span><span><b>‘烟蒂股’</b></span><span>）自三月下旬以来</span><span><b>反弹微弱</b></span><span>，虽然其中不少是僵尸企业，但也</span><span><b>存在淘金机会</b></span><span>。一旦疫情出现积极进展，经济平稳重启，在低利率和流动性宽松环境下，这类股票将迎来极好买点。</span></p><p><span>未来几个月，股市虽会调整，但再次暴跌的可能性也不大。不过，</span><span><b>波动增大将是大概率</b></span><span>，推荐</span><span><b>杠铃型投资策略</b></span><span>。既押注</span><span><b>风险性资产博反弹</b></span><span>，又</span><span><b>押注黄金和黄金股</b></span><span>对冲市场下行风险。</span></p><p><span>注：不建议普通投资者参与“烟蒂股”与生物科技股的个股交易</span></p><p>1<b><span>科技股泡沫剧本重演？</span></b></p><p><span>COVID-19疫情期间，两类股票表现极为惹眼：以FAANGM为首的</span><span><b>龙头科技股</b></span><span>和</span><span><b>生物科技股</b></span><span>，纷纷大幅跑赢大盘。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a776b8250c31a261daca10f7e1d89b1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"301\"><span>明星科技股和生物科技股跑赢大盘</span></p><p><span>甚至于，</span><span><b>Amazon一家公司的市值就已经超过了整个德国大盘(DAX指数)的市值了。</b></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29ae4e543d7e9168c831526faa72e5e8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"432\"><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>市值 vs 德国DAX指数总市值</span></p><p><span>在黑天鹅事件带来的巨大冲击下，龙头科技股和生物科技股</span><span><b>这两类资产受资金追捧</b></span><span>至少有</span><span><b>三个逻辑支撑</b></span><span>：</span></p><p><span><b>逻辑一：疫情催生</b></span><span>更广阔行业前景。</span><span><b>线上经济</b></span><span>的火热使互联网巨头受益*（见3月份的前文），而疾病大流行使</span><span><b>生物科技应用前景</b></span><span>受到投资者高度关注，使得这两类股票前景具备了</span><span><b>充足的想象力</b></span><span>和</span><span><b>估值扩张空间</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><span>*注：线上经济其实是个很宽泛的概念，就像我们一季度的那篇公开文章所提的那样，在线上经济中，做电商和线上内容的Amazon、Netflix、做安全的Okta、做线上协作的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>、“线上”健身的PLNT和PTON（见3月份的前文）属于</span><span><b>线上经济的超跑者</b></span><span>，而同是线上平台的客户关系管理（CRM）巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>则是线上经济的“跑输者”；</span></p><p><span><b>逻辑二：公司资产质量好</b></span><span>，</span><span><b>杠杆率低</b></span><span>。以FAANGM为代表</span><span><b>的龙头科技股不仅负债率低，现金流充沛，其营收增速、资产回报率、估值等各项指标亦非常亮眼</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><span><b>逻辑三：</b></span><span>美联储</span><span><b>无限宽松的货币政策</b></span><span>，为</span><span><b>估值扩张</b></span><span>提供</span><span><b>充足流动性。</b></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d84d2b3229941df8a18562cfbdeebf\" tg-width=\"323\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>美股各板块杠杆评级</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e8d875cf9df0a5298affd993d99d5eb\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"116\"><span>龙头科技股财务表现非常强劲</span></p><p><span>但就在科技股大幅跑赢市场后，投资者也开始担心会不会演变成新的泡沫，并最终走向破灭？</span></p><p>2<b><span>从历史中寻找答案</span></b></p><p><span>在正式回答这个问题前，有必要回顾下历史上两大科技股泡沫案例：</span><span><b>1970年代初的“漂亮50”</b></span><span>和</span><span><b>2000年初的“互联网泡沫”。</b></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66af9582fb52bae9a6a9c1f505aae44a\" tg-width=\"538\" tg-height=\"384\"></p><p><span>美股过去50年的三次大牛市</span></p><p><span>美国股指大盘 vs 非美发达国家的股指大盘</span></p><p>3<b><span>1970年代的大牛市：“漂亮50”</span></b></p><p><span>始于1960年代后半叶并在1970年代初期达到巅峰的</span><b>“漂亮50”行情，</b><span>成分股都是</span><b>各行业龙头</b><span>和</span><b>成长型消费股</b><span>，如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XRX\">施乐</a>（Xerox）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>等。</span></p><p><span>这轮泡沫</span><span><b>在1970年代初期达到高潮</b></span><span>，源于当时宏观经济恶化，通胀大幅攀升，生产率下滑，而“漂亮50”</span><span><b>成分股因业绩稳定且增长前景广阔成为市场“最佳避险资产”，估值被推升到极端水平</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><span>1973年10月中东地区爆发“赎罪日战争”和阿拉伯石油禁运，导致美国经济出现恶性通胀和经济衰退，</span><span><b>美联储不得不收紧流动性遏制通胀</b></span><span>。</span><span><b>高估值</b></span><span>叠加</span><span><b>货币紧缩</b></span><span>、</span><span><b>经济衰退</b></span><span>成为</span><span><b>“漂亮50”终结的三大杀手</b></span><span>。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe52d94cf70a6226af8978e9c00739ad\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"136\"><span>历次科技股泡沫中核心股票的估值水平</span></p><p>4<b><span>2000年的大牛市：“互联网泡沫”</span></b></p><p><span>1998年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲金融</a>危机爆发、对冲基金LTCM倒闭惊动全球金融市场，为防止危机蔓延至美国，美联储果断放松货币政策，为</span><b>“互联网泡沫”的产生创造了宽松的货币环境。</b></p><p><span>始于这一时期并在2000年初达到巅峰的</span><span><b>“互联网泡沫”，</b></span><span>主要靠</span><span><b>“四大骑士”驱动（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>）</b></span><span>，这四家公司是绝对</span><span><b>高成长、现金牛</b></span><span>企业且在各自领域处于</span><span><b>龙头地位</b></span><span>，因而成了危机环境下市场追捧的“最佳避险资产”</span><span><b>，估值被推升至极端水平</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><span>与“漂亮50”类似，“互联网泡沫”同样是在高估值、</span><span><b>流动性收紧的环境下被终结</b></span><span>：</span></p><p><span>2000年3月，美联储发现“千年虫事件”没有对经济造成冲击，便</span><span><b>退出流动性宽松，直接造成科技股泡沫破灭。</b></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/661237b536f2773b97a5eb35ada2cda2\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"214\"><span>美联储流动性投放与纳斯达克指数走势</span></p><p><span>当前美股科技股估值很高，但</span><span><b>与前两轮科技股泡沫相比还存在差距</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><span>更重要的是，目前美联储</span><span><b>流动性宽松</b></span><span>虽然力度很大，但</span><span><b>还远没有达到极值</b></span><span>，而</span><span><b>疫情减缓了科技巨头面临的政治层面的反垄断压力，</b></span><span>这</span><span><b>对科技股高估值形成支撑。</b></span></p><p>5<b><span>生物科技板块有望走出超级牛市</span></b></p><p><span>与“FAANGM”相比，生物科技板块的表现虽稍显逊色，但它具备</span><b>后来居上的爆发力，可成为科技股泡沫的接力者。</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6659d2bcb3d17e60c1162e6092f143aa\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>生物科技板块与标普500指数相对表现</span></p><p><span>早在疫情爆发前，三思社内部就很看好生物医药股，推荐作为核心资产长期持有：</span><span><b>一是因为这类股票估值较低，二是人口老龄化背景下受益于医疗保健支出的长期增长</b></span><span>。</span></p><p><span>经过疫情洗礼后，生物科技板块</span><span><b>将得到政府更多扶持</b></span><span>和</span><span><b>公众关注</b></span><span>、并受益于医疗支出、疾病预防研发支出的加快，因此</span><span><b>很可能出现一波超级牛市。</b></span></p><p><span><b>这个案例，可参考2001年911事件后，国防支出增加驱动国防军工板块走出的超级牛市</b></span><span>。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d71ca915a86cdc4547e8ad809008fa\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"289\"><span>航空与国防板块与标普500指数相对表现</span></p><p>5<span><b>抄底超卖的“烟蒂股”</b></span><span>（主要是受创行业的龙头股）</span></p><p><span>这次疫情造成</span><span><b>资产质量差的上市公司被严重抛售</b></span><span>（即</span><span><b>巴菲特所称的‘烟蒂股’</b></span><span>），而且三月下旬以来这类股票</span><span><b>反弹力度极弱</b></span><span>。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c8b759d4505d6ea4902a111a11303f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"258\"><span>弱资产负债表公司股价大幅跑输</span></p><p><span>虽然不少公司是僵尸企业，但也存在淘金机会。比如</span><span><b>酒店、餐饮、娱乐等行业受疫情影响大的行业的优质龙头，其股价仍在低位</b></span><span>。而且，在最近财报季的电话会议中，这些企业多在计划削减资本开支，以稳固资产负债表。</span></p><p><span><b>一旦</b></span><span>疫情出现积极进展，经济平稳重启，在超级低利率和流动性宽松环境下，</span><span><b>这类股票将迎来极好的买点</b></span><span>。</span></p><p>6<b>高股价与高波动并存</b></p><p><span>虽然美股再次</span><span><b>暴跌的可能性在减小</b></span><span>，</span><span><b>但</b></span><span>未来几个月的</span><span><b>波动会加大</b></span><span>，主要原因在于：</span></p><p><span>经济重启面临巨大不确定，各种正负面</span><span><b>消息扰乱</b></span><span>市场情绪，加剧市场波动。</span></p><p><span><b>超级宽松</b></span><span>的流动性可以稳定市场，但市场上涨动能已经收窄，</span><span><b>指数上涨主要由几大科技股驱动</b></span><span>。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90eee724f4c9c1948755f24a5789698c\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"177\"><span>美股上涨主要由科技股驱动</span></p><p><span>总统大选临近，政治角逐加剧，</span><span><b>中美关系</b></span><span>走向恶化轨迹，一系列我们不能讨论的</span><span><b>攻守博弈将加剧市场波动，从中方外交部发的推特数量即可一观。</b></span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/883e6a0a196f85f931f1b9b202d9067f\" tg-width=\"536\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>我国外交部门每月发的推特数量</span></p><p><span><b>美股的高估值主要靠流动性支撑</b></span><span>，但其估值水平已“严重”超跑全球大盘，与其真实的盈利水平不符。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80c68d11435e14491eead1a0a75c5a7\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>美股盈利占全球比重（深蓝线） vs 美股市值占全球比重（浅蓝线）</span></p><p><span>随着美股的盈利能力被疫情重创，其</span><span><b>估值回归常态</b></span><span>（下调）</span><span><b>的风险</b></span><span>较大。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c93fe477e1359914fc7dbec79f5b782\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"684\"><span>标普500 远期市盈率（蓝线） vs 当前市盈率（红线）</span></p><p><span>基于这样的环境，我们继续看好</span><span><b>杠铃型投资策略</b></span><span>：</span><span><b>既押注上文所述的三大风险资产以博反弹，又押注</b></span><b>前文</b><span><b>所述的黄金</b></span><span>、</span><span><b>黄金股、白银以</b></span><span>对冲市场下行风险。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ad67cd4d6a9453ac0593971e84df476\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>“守正出奇”的杠铃策略</span></p><p><span><b>虽然近期黄金已涨了很多</b></span><span>（金价涨了20%+，黄金股涨了100+%），但我们仍坚持</span><span><b>三月底提出的长期看多观点。</b></span></p><p><span>对于普通投资者，可继续持有三思社自3月底以来提出的贵金属交易（见前文：黄金迎来“黄金机遇”），标的上可选择：黄金股ETF（</span><span><b>GDX</b></span><span>），白银股ETF（SILJ）；对于专业投资者，可尝试黄金（GC）、白银（SI）期货*。</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0060aa2a78e05f44faf5c7260fb9c14e\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"294\"><span>黄金与白银今年以来价格走势</span></p><p><span><b>*注：</b></span><span>纽商所在芝商所（CME）旗下，交易信息为：1、黄金期货（GC）合约一手对应100盎司黄金，最小价格波幅为0.1美元（10美元/合约），每手保证金为9150美元。2、白银（SI）合约一手对应5000盎司白银，最小价格波幅为0.005美元（25美元/合约），每手保证金为9000美元。</span></p>","source":"lsy1571724511103","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“超级牛市”？疫情之后美股的三大投资机会</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“超级牛市”？疫情之后美股的三大投资机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-26 18:50 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/376093><strong>三思社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当前美股科技股估值很高，但与前两轮科技股泡沫相比还存在差距。美联储流动性宽松远没有达到高峰，而疫情减缓了科技巨头面临的来自政治层面的反垄断压力，这对科技股高估值形成支撑。生物科技板块是值得长期持有的核心资产，经过疫情催化，很可能出现一波超级牛市。可参考2001年911事件后，国防开支增加驱动美国国防军工板块长达10年的超级牛市。被超卖的低质量公司（即巴菲特所说的‘烟蒂股’）自三月下旬以来反弹微弱，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/376093\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐","MSFT":"微软","IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/376093","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161811891","content_text":"当前美股科技股估值很高，但与前两轮科技股泡沫相比还存在差距。美联储流动性宽松远没有达到高峰，而疫情减缓了科技巨头面临的来自政治层面的反垄断压力，这对科技股高估值形成支撑。生物科技板块是值得长期持有的核心资产，经过疫情催化，很可能出现一波超级牛市。可参考2001年911事件后，国防开支增加驱动美国国防军工板块长达10年的超级牛市。被超卖的低质量公司（即巴菲特所说的‘烟蒂股’）自三月下旬以来反弹微弱，虽然其中不少是僵尸企业，但也存在淘金机会。一旦疫情出现积极进展，经济平稳重启，在低利率和流动性宽松环境下，这类股票将迎来极好买点。未来几个月，股市虽会调整，但再次暴跌的可能性也不大。不过，波动增大将是大概率，推荐杠铃型投资策略。既押注风险性资产博反弹，又押注黄金和黄金股对冲市场下行风险。注：不建议普通投资者参与“烟蒂股”与生物科技股的个股交易1科技股泡沫剧本重演？COVID-19疫情期间，两类股票表现极为惹眼：以FAANGM为首的龙头科技股和生物科技股，纷纷大幅跑赢大盘。明星科技股和生物科技股跑赢大盘甚至于，Amazon一家公司的市值就已经超过了整个德国大盘(DAX指数)的市值了。亚马逊市值 vs 德国DAX指数总市值在黑天鹅事件带来的巨大冲击下，龙头科技股和生物科技股这两类资产受资金追捧至少有三个逻辑支撑：逻辑一：疫情催生更广阔行业前景。线上经济的火热使互联网巨头受益*（见3月份的前文），而疾病大流行使生物科技应用前景受到投资者高度关注，使得这两类股票前景具备了充足的想象力和估值扩张空间。*注：线上经济其实是个很宽泛的概念，就像我们一季度的那篇公开文章所提的那样，在线上经济中，做电商和线上内容的Amazon、Netflix、做安全的Okta、做线上协作的Zoom、“线上”健身的PLNT和PTON（见3月份的前文）属于线上经济的超跑者，而同是线上平台的客户关系管理（CRM）巨头Salesforce则是线上经济的“跑输者”；逻辑二：公司资产质量好，杠杆率低。以FAANGM为代表的龙头科技股不仅负债率低，现金流充沛，其营收增速、资产回报率、估值等各项指标亦非常亮眼。逻辑三：美联储无限宽松的货币政策，为估值扩张提供充足流动性。美股各板块杠杆评级龙头科技股财务表现非常强劲但就在科技股大幅跑赢市场后，投资者也开始担心会不会演变成新的泡沫，并最终走向破灭？2从历史中寻找答案在正式回答这个问题前，有必要回顾下历史上两大科技股泡沫案例：1970年代初的“漂亮50”和2000年初的“互联网泡沫”。美股过去50年的三次大牛市美国股指大盘 vs 非美发达国家的股指大盘31970年代的大牛市：“漂亮50”始于1960年代后半叶并在1970年代初期达到巅峰的“漂亮50”行情，成分股都是各行业龙头和成长型消费股，如施乐（Xerox）、IBM、可口可乐等。这轮泡沫在1970年代初期达到高潮，源于当时宏观经济恶化，通胀大幅攀升，生产率下滑，而“漂亮50”成分股因业绩稳定且增长前景广阔成为市场“最佳避险资产”，估值被推升到极端水平。1973年10月中东地区爆发“赎罪日战争”和阿拉伯石油禁运，导致美国经济出现恶性通胀和经济衰退，美联储不得不收紧流动性遏制通胀。高估值叠加货币紧缩、经济衰退成为“漂亮50”终结的三大杀手。历次科技股泡沫中核心股票的估值水平42000年的大牛市：“互联网泡沫”1998年亚洲金融危机爆发、对冲基金LTCM倒闭惊动全球金融市场，为防止危机蔓延至美国，美联储果断放松货币政策，为“互联网泡沫”的产生创造了宽松的货币环境。始于这一时期并在2000年初达到巅峰的“互联网泡沫”，主要靠“四大骑士”驱动（微软、甲骨文、戴尔、思科），这四家公司是绝对高成长、现金牛企业且在各自领域处于龙头地位，因而成了危机环境下市场追捧的“最佳避险资产”，估值被推升至极端水平。与“漂亮50”类似，“互联网泡沫”同样是在高估值、流动性收紧的环境下被终结：2000年3月，美联储发现“千年虫事件”没有对经济造成冲击，便退出流动性宽松，直接造成科技股泡沫破灭。美联储流动性投放与纳斯达克指数走势当前美股科技股估值很高，但与前两轮科技股泡沫相比还存在差距。更重要的是，目前美联储流动性宽松虽然力度很大，但还远没有达到极值，而疫情减缓了科技巨头面临的政治层面的反垄断压力，这对科技股高估值形成支撑。5生物科技板块有望走出超级牛市与“FAANGM”相比，生物科技板块的表现虽稍显逊色，但它具备后来居上的爆发力，可成为科技股泡沫的接力者。生物科技板块与标普500指数相对表现早在疫情爆发前，三思社内部就很看好生物医药股，推荐作为核心资产长期持有：一是因为这类股票估值较低，二是人口老龄化背景下受益于医疗保健支出的长期增长。经过疫情洗礼后，生物科技板块将得到政府更多扶持和公众关注、并受益于医疗支出、疾病预防研发支出的加快，因此很可能出现一波超级牛市。这个案例，可参考2001年911事件后，国防支出增加驱动国防军工板块走出的超级牛市。航空与国防板块与标普500指数相对表现5抄底超卖的“烟蒂股”（主要是受创行业的龙头股）这次疫情造成资产质量差的上市公司被严重抛售（即巴菲特所称的‘烟蒂股’），而且三月下旬以来这类股票反弹力度极弱。弱资产负债表公司股价大幅跑输虽然不少公司是僵尸企业，但也存在淘金机会。比如酒店、餐饮、娱乐等行业受疫情影响大的行业的优质龙头，其股价仍在低位。而且，在最近财报季的电话会议中，这些企业多在计划削减资本开支，以稳固资产负债表。一旦疫情出现积极进展，经济平稳重启，在超级低利率和流动性宽松环境下，这类股票将迎来极好的买点。6高股价与高波动并存虽然美股再次暴跌的可能性在减小，但未来几个月的波动会加大，主要原因在于：经济重启面临巨大不确定，各种正负面消息扰乱市场情绪，加剧市场波动。超级宽松的流动性可以稳定市场，但市场上涨动能已经收窄，指数上涨主要由几大科技股驱动。美股上涨主要由科技股驱动总统大选临近，政治角逐加剧，中美关系走向恶化轨迹，一系列我们不能讨论的攻守博弈将加剧市场波动，从中方外交部发的推特数量即可一观。我国外交部门每月发的推特数量美股的高估值主要靠流动性支撑，但其估值水平已“严重”超跑全球大盘，与其真实的盈利水平不符。美股盈利占全球比重（深蓝线） vs 美股市值占全球比重（浅蓝线）随着美股的盈利能力被疫情重创，其估值回归常态（下调）的风险较大。标普500 远期市盈率（蓝线） vs 当前市盈率（红线）基于这样的环境，我们继续看好杠铃型投资策略：既押注上文所述的三大风险资产以博反弹，又押注前文所述的黄金、黄金股、白银以对冲市场下行风险。“守正出奇”的杠铃策略虽然近期黄金已涨了很多（金价涨了20%+，黄金股涨了100+%），但我们仍坚持三月底提出的长期看多观点。对于普通投资者，可继续持有三思社自3月底以来提出的贵金属交易（见前文：黄金迎来“黄金机遇”），标的上可选择：黄金股ETF（GDX），白银股ETF（SILJ）；对于专业投资者，可尝试黄金（GC）、白银（SI）期货*。黄金与白银今年以来价格走势*注：纽商所在芝商所（CME）旗下，交易信息为：1、黄金期货（GC）合约一手对应100盎司黄金，最小价格波幅为0.1美元（10美元/合约），每手保证金为9150美元。2、白银（SI）合约一手对应5000盎司白银，最小价格波幅为0.005美元（25美元/合约），每手保证金为9000美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953438499,"gmtCreate":1590503304511,"gmtModify":1704192731085,"author":{"id":"3533862916245582","authorId":"3533862916245582","name":"飞不高的飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e82876c9979116644056cd9c1067e092","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3533862916245582","authorIdStr":"3533862916245582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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