JZSKY的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JZSKY

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IP属地：四川

30关注

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1主题

0勋章

2020-04-29

$Zoom(ZM)$泡沫破了

2020-04-27

$Zoom(ZM)$这波韭菜割的太轻松了，接盘的人也真厉害

2020-04-25

$Zoom(ZM)$踩塌了

2020-04-24

$Zoom(ZM)$开盘大单买进拉高，然后疯狂出货收割了一波。韭菜真是源源不断

2020-04-23

$Zoom(ZM)$主力连续吸筹几天，开始出货了

2020-04-15

$Zoom(ZM)$这种位置，只有主力敢接盘了。

2020-04-07

$跟谁学(GSX)$躺枪。。隔壁爱奇艺被机构看空啊$爱奇艺(IQ)$

2020-04-07

$跟谁学(GSX)$空方子弹打完了[龇牙] [龇牙]

2020-04-04

$跟谁学(GSX)$经审计年报没有问题，诱空，拉爆

2020-03-20

$优步(UBER)$美国人工多贵？用来私家车送菜，太不现实了。

2020-03-18

$Slack Technologies(WORK)$快跑

2020-03-11

$拼多多(PDD)$感觉空头前两天就在埋伏了

2020-03-10

$Zoom(ZM)$空头强劲啊

2020-02-25

$蔚来(NIO)$ 这还能假？蔚来能拿到这笔钱，实属不易

2020-02-07

$吉利德科学(GILD)$ 最快周末就有好消息

2020-01-30

小区都不让进，无接触无非就是放在门外某个地方，用户还要跑一趟，一是始终要接触门卫或者某个人，除非你有提货机。二是用户要下楼跑一趟，体验打折扣。这是倒退啊，咋还说的那么好听

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-30

酒旅利润占比10% ？逗我呢

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-18

$荔枝(LIZI)$ ceo讲话还算实在人，睡了睡了美股伤睡眠呀

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src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/11267628181/0\"/><p>天猫超市提供“无接触式配送”服务</p><p>使用饿了么下单时，用户可在订单备注栏选择“无接触配送”，备注要求骑士把商品放在指定位置，如门口、公司/小区前台、物业门卫处等。待骑士放置妥当并与您确认后，用户再前去取货，避免面对面接触。用户亦可通过电话、在线联系等渠道说明放置要求。</p><p>同时，饿了么此项服务将在近期内推向全国。</p><p>据悉，盒马于1月27日上线“无接触配送”，线上顾客在APP点单时，可选择“无接触配送”服务，配送员与顾客电话约定送货地点，可实现不接触送货。</p><p>另外，天猫超市、饿了么、盒马均表示，与生态伙伴努力实现服务不打烊的同时，也密切关注着消费者和配送员的安全，对所有员工进行防护措施规范培训，并佩戴口罩，上岗前测量体温。目前在湖北推出“无接触配送”这项服务，也是想为消费者和配送员都再提供一层“防护”，通过减少直接接触，降低交叉感染风险。</p><p><strong>美团外卖“无接触配送”</strong></p><p><strong>预计本周将覆盖全国大部分城市</strong></p><p>美团外卖在武汉优先试点推出“无接触配送”服务，截至1月27日，美团外卖“无接触配送”已在北上广深等全国184个城市上线，预计本周将覆盖全国大部分城市。</p><p>目前，美团外卖用户可通过两种方式选择“无接触配送”，一种是直接在下单页面中备注信息，另一种是直接与骑手沟通，告知使用该服务，从而与骑手协商一个商品放置的指定位置。作为优先试点“无接触配送”服务的城市，武汉用户在下单的时候，已经逐渐开始通过备注信息选择“无接触配送”服务。美团外卖负责人表示，自“无接触配送”服务在武汉推出后，有越来越多的武汉用户主动选择 “无接触配送”，而随着覆盖城市的增加，相信会有更多的用户了解和使用此项服务。</p><p>此外，医院地区的无接触配送比较特殊，医院人员流动较大，常规餐品放置方式并不能确保安全，所以设置自助取餐柜等无接触设备则是比较安全的方式。为此，美团外卖相关负责人发出呼吁：“针对医院地区送餐，我们已经准备了取餐柜等设备，希望有需求的医院能够主动与我们联系。”</p><p>红星新闻记者 李伟铭 陈应鹏</p><p>编辑 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n宅在家里点外卖又怕和人面对面？阿里美团陆续推出“无接触”配送服务\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-30 00:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202001300031137a3bd215&s=b><strong>红星新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的影响，许多市民春节期间都选择宅在家里。同时，不少市民选择通过点外卖的方式购买食物和日常用品。但是，也有人对收取外卖时会与外卖小哥面对面接触犯了难。据了解，阿里和美团陆续推出“无接触”配送模式，保障市民和配送者的安全。阿里今日在湖北区域启动“无接触安心送”模式记者从阿里方面获悉，即日（1月29日）起天猫超市、饿了么、盒马在湖北推出“无接触安心送”服务，湖北区域的消费者可以在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202001300031137a3bd215&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98a08f234fb3dfe04b5578614dea292","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03690":"美团-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202001300031137a3bd215&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2007526483","content_text":"受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的影响，许多市民春节期间都选择宅在家里。同时，不少市民选择通过点外卖的方式购买食物和日常用品。但是，也有人对收取外卖时会与外卖小哥面对面接触犯了难。据了解，阿里和美团陆续推出“无接触”配送模式，保障市民和配送者的安全。阿里今日在湖北区域启动“无接触安心送”模式记者从阿里方面获悉，即日（1月29日）起天猫超市、饿了么、盒马在湖北推出“无接触安心送”服务，湖北区域的消费者可以在订单备注栏选择“无接触式配送”，备注要求配送员把商品放在指定位置，避免直接接触。据了解，天猫超市、饿了么、盒马的这项服务目前已经在湖北区域内上线，湖北省内消费者下单后，天猫超市会默认提供“无接触式配送”服务：配送员在与客户电话联系后，会将货品放在双方约定位置，如果消费者有“送货上门”需求，也可以提前与配送员联络。天猫超市提供“无接触式配送”服务使用饿了么下单时，用户可在订单备注栏选择“无接触配送”，备注要求骑士把商品放在指定位置，如门口、公司/小区前台、物业门卫处等。待骑士放置妥当并与您确认后，用户再前去取货，避免面对面接触。用户亦可通过电话、在线联系等渠道说明放置要求。同时，饿了么此项服务将在近期内推向全国。据悉，盒马于1月27日上线“无接触配送”，线上顾客在APP点单时，可选择“无接触配送”服务，配送员与顾客电话约定送货地点，可实现不接触送货。另外，天猫超市、饿了么、盒马均表示，与生态伙伴努力实现服务不打烊的同时，也密切关注着消费者和配送员的安全，对所有员工进行防护措施规范培训，并佩戴口罩，上岗前测量体温。目前在湖北推出“无接触配送”这项服务，也是想为消费者和配送员都再提供一层“防护”，通过减少直接接触，降低交叉感染风险。美团外卖“无接触配送”预计本周将覆盖全国大部分城市美团外卖在武汉优先试点推出“无接触配送”服务，截至1月27日，美团外卖“无接触配送”已在北上广深等全国184个城市上线，预计本周将覆盖全国大部分城市。目前，美团外卖用户可通过两种方式选择“无接触配送”，一种是直接在下单页面中备注信息，另一种是直接与骑手沟通，告知使用该服务，从而与骑手协商一个商品放置的指定位置。作为优先试点“无接触配送”服务的城市，武汉用户在下单的时候，已经逐渐开始通过备注信息选择“无接触配送”服务。美团外卖负责人表示，自“无接触配送”服务在武汉推出后，有越来越多的武汉用户主动选择 “无接触配送”，而随着覆盖城市的增加，相信会有更多的用户了解和使用此项服务。此外，医院地区的无接触配送比较特殊，医院人员流动较大，常规餐品放置方式并不能确保安全，所以设置自助取餐柜等无接触设备则是比较安全的方式。为此，美团外卖相关负责人发出呼吁：“针对医院地区送餐，我们已经准备了取餐柜等设备，希望有需求的医院能够主动与我们联系。”红星新闻记者 李伟铭 陈应鹏编辑 廖庆丰","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":912555552,"gmtCreate":1580363132476,"gmtModify":1704341376367,"author":{"id":"3533516446096089","authorId":"3533516446096089","name":"JZSKY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3533516446096089","authorIdStr":"3533516446096089"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"酒旅利润占比10% ？&nbsp; 逗我呢","listText":"酒旅利润占比10% ？&nbsp; 逗我呢","text":"酒旅利润占比10% ？ 逗我呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/912555552","repostId":"1164358093","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1164358093","pubTimestamp":1580353916,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164358093?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-01-30 11:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美团接近估值“绝对底部”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164358093","media":"建投海外研究","summary":"概要\n受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响，美团$(03690)$近期回调较快。市场比较关心美团的“底”到底在哪？我们认为当前美团已经接近估值的“绝对底部”。具体而言，我们对美团的到店酒旅业务和外卖业务分别进行","content":"<p><b>概要</b></p>\n<p>受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响，美团<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$(03690)$</a>近期回调较快。市场比较关心美团的“底”到底在哪？我们认为当前美团已经接近估值的“绝对底部”。具体而言，我们对美团的到店酒旅业务和外卖业务分别进行了中性假设和最悲观假设，以方便弄清楚疫情对美团业务的影响程度，进而进一步明确美团估值的“底”。</p>\n<p>1）受肺炎疫情冲击最大的是美团的到店酒旅业务，其中又以酒旅业务最为明显。<b>但就收入体量来看，酒旅业务本身也只占到店酒旅整块业务的四份之一，净利润的占比也仅10%左右。我们分别在中性预期和悲观预期的假设下，</b>对到店业务和酒店业务二者分别做敏感性测试。乐观情形下先不表，中性假设情形下，美团到店酒旅业务2020年依然可以保持7%以上的收入增速，贡献约71.67亿的净利润。<b>悲观假设情形下，</b>美团到店酒旅业务2020年收入减少9%，依然可以贡献约60.1亿的净利润。<b>即便最为悲观的情形下给予较低的估值，美团到店酒旅业务依然可以维持1500亿（人民币）以上的估值。况且这次疫情终究会结束，我们认为从长远来看，美团到店酒旅业务具备天然的护城河，业绩增速可能会短期下滑，但估值不应再被打折。</b></p>\n<p>2）<b>餐饮外卖业务受疫情影响有限，</b>Q1原本即是餐饮外卖业务的传统淡季，且“宅”在家中防止疫情传染的心理会进一步加大外卖的订单需求。虽然从外卖成本上来看，疫情的严重性会适当增加外卖骑手的激励成本。但骑手的用户激励费用，有很大一部分已经与提升的配送费相抵消。近段时间为尽快完成订单的配送，不少消费者配送费支付意愿明显提升。从过去的两个季度观察来看，骑手成本的增加也较为有限并可控。我们同样以中性与悲观两种假设做敏感性测试。<b>中性假设情形下，</b>美团餐饮外卖业务2020年GTV同比增长24%，收入同比增长28%，外卖净利润可达48亿元。<b>悲观假设情形下，</b>GTV约同比增长21%，收入增长24%的同时，净利润仍可达到40亿元。另外，当前美团也在武汉等地推出“无接触配送”模式，未来有望更大范围推广，同时也是一次推进其配送场景优化的重要举措。总体而言，疫情对外卖业务负面影响有限，无需过分担心。3）新业务受疫情影响同样较小，且生鲜类、医药类的非餐订单需求会大幅度放量增长。新业务保守起见，2020年依然可以给予零估值。</p>\n<p><b>综上所述，我们继续维持原有的目标价，128港币，给予“买入”评级。考虑到从估值角度来看，当前美团已经接近“绝对底部”，我们给予重点推荐。</b></p>\n<p><b>正文</b></p>\n<p><b>一、到店酒旅业务板块</b></p>\n<p>美团的三大业务板块中，到店酒旅业务受到的负面影响将最为深刻，这也是现阶段市场关注的焦点。截至目前，美团在到店、酒旅方面落地的防疫措施汇总如下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0478dcbae6a286fde86c7597a5ab797d\"></p>\n<p><span>疫情期间，美团方面多次主动升级相关退改政策，惠及范围逐步由武汉扩大至全国，并启动了1亿元应急服务保障金，全力协调商家，并尽量减少消费者损失。美团在承担相应损失的同时，提升了公司在社会责任方面的消费者口碑。</span></p>\n<p><span>针对此次疫情，我们为美团的到店酒旅业务进行了中性、悲观假设的预测分析。</span></p>\n<p><span>本次疫情始于2019年12月，但在初期并未引起社会恐慌心理，真正开始全面对社会产生实际影响是在2020年1月中下旬。接连出台的省际城际交通禁行、假期延长政策，与疫情相关的新闻实时推送、负责人发布会等措施对到店、酒旅消费者产生了心理屏障与实际的行动限制。根据多方预测，本次疫情或于3-6月份情况转好。因此我们认为今年上半年疫情将对到店酒旅业务产生持续的负面影响。另一方面，根据易观智库2015-2018年数据，我国在线旅游市场的交易规模基本呈现出下半年大于上半年的特征，因此疫情对于上半年交易的负面影响也存在一定的限度。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02a6cecdd09d769338d80d6bea4c900\"></p>\n<p><span>若疫情于上半年结束，到店酒旅业务将于下半年回归正常，且有可能存在因疫情禁行结束出行人数大幅上升的可能。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>中性假设下，</b></span><span>我们预计美团的到店业务在2020年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-20%、-20%、25%与35%；美团的酒旅业务在本年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-30%、-25%、20%与30%。由此预测美团到店业务收入本年将同比增长8%，达到180亿元；酒旅业务收入本年将同比增长2%，达到56.6亿元。到店酒旅整体收入236.3亿元,相比2019年同比增长7%，我们对到店酒旅业务板块整体估值为2132亿元。</span></p>\n<p><b>悲观假设下，</b><span>我们预计美团的到店业务在2020年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-35%、-35%、5%与25%；美团的酒旅业务在本年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-50%、-45%、-10%与20%。由此预测美团到店业务收入本年将同比下降7%，约为154.8亿元；酒旅业务收入本年将同比下降18%，约45.5亿元。到店酒旅整体收入200.3亿元,相比2019年同比下降10%。悲观情况下，约产生60亿左右的净利润。即使按照最低的25倍PE，</span><b>美团到店酒旅业务依然可以维持1500亿（人民币）以上的估值。</b></p>\n<p>需要指出的是，相比本地到店业务，酒旅业务往往受到疫情的冲击程度更深、持续时间更久远。一方面由于本地到店消费门槛更低、更易达成，另一方面由于大规模疫情爆发所带来的社会恐慌情绪不易短期内消除，人们仍需一段时间以弱化恐慌情绪并确认疫情的消除情况。因此对于消费者付出成本更高的酒旅业务，其所需要的恢复期相比到店业务更长。这也是我们认为美团酒旅业务在2020年的增长情况将弱于其到店业务的原因。</p>\n<p>整体上看，到店酒旅业务在美团的三大业务矩阵中虽受到较大冲击，但由于其收入占比并非头部，且疫情的结束有望迎来出行大幅上升期，我们认为该板块受到的冲击存在但有限。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa8b4e0583e7a233cc12c053243c6e39\"></p>\n<p><b>二、餐饮外卖业务板块</b></p>\n<p>餐饮外卖业务同样受到疫情的负面影响，但相比到店酒旅板块受伤更轻，且疫情在一定程度上能够提升外卖业务单量。截至目前，美团餐饮外卖业务应对疫情的相关措施整合如下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b35b7d90a51884bb18ee854e99fd69fd\"></p>\n<p>作为深耕本地生活服务的平台公司，尤其对于外卖这一具有短距离、社区属性的服务项目。美团针对外卖业务所涉及的各方均设置了相关保障措施。除上述措施外，美团同样针对非餐外卖业务推行了相关政策，全方位助力社区疫情的防控。</p>\n<p>针对此次疫情，我们同样对美团的餐饮外卖业务进行了中性与悲观假设的预测分析。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb25142afca972eb6fc4d3f07355274\"></p>\n<p><b><span>中性假设下，</span></b><span>我们预计美团外卖业务GTV在2020年四个季度中各同比增长20%、20%、25%与30%，同时保守估计其变现率较2019年增加0.4个百分点至14.4%，得到外卖业务收入约702.8亿元。我们预计外卖业务毛利率在2020年四个季度中分别为14%、15%、21%与20%，得到其毛利约126.5亿元。我们预测2020年外卖业务的净利润约48.14亿元。</span></p>\n<p><span>2020上半年外卖业务同样将受到疫情负面影响，但影响十分有限。这主要源于餐饮外卖的“宅”属性本身即契合了现阶段疫情防治的“少出门，不聚集”倡议，消费者现阶段对于到店用餐的期望将大部分通过外卖点餐满足，而餐饮商户也由于到店人数的大幅下降而将订单集中在外卖平台上。</span></p>\n<p><span>同时，根据易观与美团数据显示，互联网外卖平台一般于二季度开始出现本年度交易量的大幅上升，这主要源于一季度受春节假期影响，外卖的需求量和供给量较少，这也使得疫情对外卖业务上半年的影响较小。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e329e8fb1daf1b4745fcf656fa5f5493\"></p>\n<p><span>在骑手费用上，疫情的影响加上本身处于春节时段，对于骑手的调配到岗以及防疫措施的增强势必会增加对于骑手各方面补贴的支出。但从过去几个季度观察来看，美团在季节性骑手补贴等方面具有充足经验，能够合理控制此处支出。春节期间，由于外卖骑手的供给减少，为保障订单完成给骑手的激励费用也相应有所提升。从春节期间外卖简单的草根调研来看，骑手的用户激励费用，有很大一部分已经与提升的配送费相抵消。近段时间为尽快完成订单的配送，不少消费者配送费支付意愿明显提升。若疫情于上半年结束，则下半年平台的订单交易量将回归正常，甚至出现大幅提升。同到店餐饮一样，餐饮外卖业务因消费者付出成本较低且容易达成而更容易从疫情的消极影响中恢复。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>悲观假设下，</b></span><span>我们预计美团外卖业务GTV在2020年四个季度中各同比增长15%、15%、20%与30%，保守估计其变现率为14.4%，得到外卖业务收入约682.6亿元。我们预计外卖业务毛利率在2020年四个季度中分别为13%、14%、18%与17%，得到其毛利约109.2亿元。我们预测2020年外卖业务的净利润约40.96亿元。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>我们注意到此次疫情对于美团外卖配送既是挑战，同时也是一次推进其配送场景优化的窗口期。</b></span><span>现阶段美团鲜明的提出“无接触配送”服务概念，对于普通消费者通过备注不接触配送偏好方式进行，而针对医院等集体客户端则开始尝试设置取餐柜。截至1月27日，“无接触配送”已在全国184个城市上线，很快将覆盖全国大部分城市。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbcc09aeab80520650301eefa35d0218\"></p>\n<p><span>该模式升级成型后若能在普通消费者群体内推广，取餐柜之于美团或将起到极大助推作用——完全解决了现阶段骑手等待消费者取餐所产生的时间消耗与其他纠纷；联想到菜鸟驿站推出的“菜鸟小盒”，功能齐全的取餐柜对于消费者实际上能够形成沉没成本，进一步争夺市场用户，提升用户粘性。</span></p>\n<p><span>新业务受疫情影响更小，且生鲜类、医药类的非餐订单需求会大幅度放量增长。由于新业务盈利能力的不断改善，估值提升是必然的一个结果。保守起见，2020年依然可以给予零估值。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>综上所述，我们继续维持原有的目标价，128港币，给予“买入”评级。考虑到，从估值角度来看，当前美团已经接近“绝对底部”，我们给予重点推荐。</b></span></p>","source":"建投海外研究","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美团接近估值“绝对底部”</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美团接近估值“绝对底部”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-30 11:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ED1tk7IqcixRceiG_7vOAA><strong>建投海外研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>概要\n受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响，美团$(03690)$近期回调较快。市场比较关心美团的“底”到底在哪？我们认为当前美团已经接近估值的“绝对底部”。具体而言，我们对美团的到店酒旅业务和外卖业务分别进行了中性假设和最悲观假设，以方便弄清楚疫情对美团业务的影响程度，进而进一步明确美团估值的“底”。\n1）受肺炎疫情冲击最大的是美团的到店酒旅业务，其中又以酒旅业务最为明显。但就收入体量来看，酒旅业务本身也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ED1tk7IqcixRceiG_7vOAA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337fae570d013ae2e12c40a9b753776d","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ED1tk7IqcixRceiG_7vOAA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164358093","content_text":"概要\n受新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响，美团$(03690)$近期回调较快。市场比较关心美团的“底”到底在哪？我们认为当前美团已经接近估值的“绝对底部”。具体而言，我们对美团的到店酒旅业务和外卖业务分别进行了中性假设和最悲观假设，以方便弄清楚疫情对美团业务的影响程度，进而进一步明确美团估值的“底”。\n1）受肺炎疫情冲击最大的是美团的到店酒旅业务，其中又以酒旅业务最为明显。但就收入体量来看，酒旅业务本身也只占到店酒旅整块业务的四份之一，净利润的占比也仅10%左右。我们分别在中性预期和悲观预期的假设下，对到店业务和酒店业务二者分别做敏感性测试。乐观情形下先不表，中性假设情形下，美团到店酒旅业务2020年依然可以保持7%以上的收入增速，贡献约71.67亿的净利润。悲观假设情形下，美团到店酒旅业务2020年收入减少9%，依然可以贡献约60.1亿的净利润。即便最为悲观的情形下给予较低的估值，美团到店酒旅业务依然可以维持1500亿（人民币）以上的估值。况且这次疫情终究会结束，我们认为从长远来看，美团到店酒旅业务具备天然的护城河，业绩增速可能会短期下滑，但估值不应再被打折。\n2）餐饮外卖业务受疫情影响有限，Q1原本即是餐饮外卖业务的传统淡季，且“宅”在家中防止疫情传染的心理会进一步加大外卖的订单需求。虽然从外卖成本上来看，疫情的严重性会适当增加外卖骑手的激励成本。但骑手的用户激励费用，有很大一部分已经与提升的配送费相抵消。近段时间为尽快完成订单的配送，不少消费者配送费支付意愿明显提升。从过去的两个季度观察来看，骑手成本的增加也较为有限并可控。我们同样以中性与悲观两种假设做敏感性测试。中性假设情形下，美团餐饮外卖业务2020年GTV同比增长24%，收入同比增长28%，外卖净利润可达48亿元。悲观假设情形下，GTV约同比增长21%，收入增长24%的同时，净利润仍可达到40亿元。另外，当前美团也在武汉等地推出“无接触配送”模式，未来有望更大范围推广，同时也是一次推进其配送场景优化的重要举措。总体而言，疫情对外卖业务负面影响有限，无需过分担心。3）新业务受疫情影响同样较小，且生鲜类、医药类的非餐订单需求会大幅度放量增长。新业务保守起见，2020年依然可以给予零估值。\n综上所述，我们继续维持原有的目标价，128港币，给予“买入”评级。考虑到从估值角度来看，当前美团已经接近“绝对底部”，我们给予重点推荐。\n正文\n一、到店酒旅业务板块\n美团的三大业务板块中，到店酒旅业务受到的负面影响将最为深刻，这也是现阶段市场关注的焦点。截至目前，美团在到店、酒旅方面落地的防疫措施汇总如下。\n\n疫情期间，美团方面多次主动升级相关退改政策，惠及范围逐步由武汉扩大至全国，并启动了1亿元应急服务保障金，全力协调商家，并尽量减少消费者损失。美团在承担相应损失的同时，提升了公司在社会责任方面的消费者口碑。\n针对此次疫情，我们为美团的到店酒旅业务进行了中性、悲观假设的预测分析。\n本次疫情始于2019年12月，但在初期并未引起社会恐慌心理，真正开始全面对社会产生实际影响是在2020年1月中下旬。接连出台的省际城际交通禁行、假期延长政策，与疫情相关的新闻实时推送、负责人发布会等措施对到店、酒旅消费者产生了心理屏障与实际的行动限制。根据多方预测，本次疫情或于3-6月份情况转好。因此我们认为今年上半年疫情将对到店酒旅业务产生持续的负面影响。另一方面，根据易观智库2015-2018年数据，我国在线旅游市场的交易规模基本呈现出下半年大于上半年的特征，因此疫情对于上半年交易的负面影响也存在一定的限度。\n\n若疫情于上半年结束，到店酒旅业务将于下半年回归正常，且有可能存在因疫情禁行结束出行人数大幅上升的可能。\n中性假设下，我们预计美团的到店业务在2020年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-20%、-20%、25%与35%；美团的酒旅业务在本年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-30%、-25%、20%与30%。由此预测美团到店业务收入本年将同比增长8%，达到180亿元；酒旅业务收入本年将同比增长2%，达到56.6亿元。到店酒旅整体收入236.3亿元,相比2019年同比增长7%，我们对到店酒旅业务板块整体估值为2132亿元。\n悲观假设下，我们预计美团的到店业务在2020年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-35%、-35%、5%与25%；美团的酒旅业务在本年四个季度中的同比增长率分别为-50%、-45%、-10%与20%。由此预测美团到店业务收入本年将同比下降7%，约为154.8亿元；酒旅业务收入本年将同比下降18%，约45.5亿元。到店酒旅整体收入200.3亿元,相比2019年同比下降10%。悲观情况下，约产生60亿左右的净利润。即使按照最低的25倍PE，美团到店酒旅业务依然可以维持1500亿（人民币）以上的估值。\n需要指出的是，相比本地到店业务，酒旅业务往往受到疫情的冲击程度更深、持续时间更久远。一方面由于本地到店消费门槛更低、更易达成，另一方面由于大规模疫情爆发所带来的社会恐慌情绪不易短期内消除，人们仍需一段时间以弱化恐慌情绪并确认疫情的消除情况。因此对于消费者付出成本更高的酒旅业务，其所需要的恢复期相比到店业务更长。这也是我们认为美团酒旅业务在2020年的增长情况将弱于其到店业务的原因。\n整体上看，到店酒旅业务在美团的三大业务矩阵中虽受到较大冲击，但由于其收入占比并非头部，且疫情的结束有望迎来出行大幅上升期，我们认为该板块受到的冲击存在但有限。\n\n二、餐饮外卖业务板块\n餐饮外卖业务同样受到疫情的负面影响，但相比到店酒旅板块受伤更轻，且疫情在一定程度上能够提升外卖业务单量。截至目前，美团餐饮外卖业务应对疫情的相关措施整合如下。\n\n作为深耕本地生活服务的平台公司，尤其对于外卖这一具有短距离、社区属性的服务项目。美团针对外卖业务所涉及的各方均设置了相关保障措施。除上述措施外，美团同样针对非餐外卖业务推行了相关政策，全方位助力社区疫情的防控。\n针对此次疫情，我们同样对美团的餐饮外卖业务进行了中性与悲观假设的预测分析。\n\n中性假设下，我们预计美团外卖业务GTV在2020年四个季度中各同比增长20%、20%、25%与30%，同时保守估计其变现率较2019年增加0.4个百分点至14.4%，得到外卖业务收入约702.8亿元。我们预计外卖业务毛利率在2020年四个季度中分别为14%、15%、21%与20%，得到其毛利约126.5亿元。我们预测2020年外卖业务的净利润约48.14亿元。\n2020上半年外卖业务同样将受到疫情负面影响，但影响十分有限。这主要源于餐饮外卖的“宅”属性本身即契合了现阶段疫情防治的“少出门，不聚集”倡议，消费者现阶段对于到店用餐的期望将大部分通过外卖点餐满足，而餐饮商户也由于到店人数的大幅下降而将订单集中在外卖平台上。\n同时，根据易观与美团数据显示，互联网外卖平台一般于二季度开始出现本年度交易量的大幅上升，这主要源于一季度受春节假期影响，外卖的需求量和供给量较少，这也使得疫情对外卖业务上半年的影响较小。\n\n在骑手费用上，疫情的影响加上本身处于春节时段，对于骑手的调配到岗以及防疫措施的增强势必会增加对于骑手各方面补贴的支出。但从过去几个季度观察来看，美团在季节性骑手补贴等方面具有充足经验，能够合理控制此处支出。春节期间，由于外卖骑手的供给减少，为保障订单完成给骑手的激励费用也相应有所提升。从春节期间外卖简单的草根调研来看，骑手的用户激励费用，有很大一部分已经与提升的配送费相抵消。近段时间为尽快完成订单的配送，不少消费者配送费支付意愿明显提升。若疫情于上半年结束，则下半年平台的订单交易量将回归正常，甚至出现大幅提升。同到店餐饮一样，餐饮外卖业务因消费者付出成本较低且容易达成而更容易从疫情的消极影响中恢复。\n悲观假设下，我们预计美团外卖业务GTV在2020年四个季度中各同比增长15%、15%、20%与30%，保守估计其变现率为14.4%，得到外卖业务收入约682.6亿元。我们预计外卖业务毛利率在2020年四个季度中分别为13%、14%、18%与17%，得到其毛利约109.2亿元。我们预测2020年外卖业务的净利润约40.96亿元。\n我们注意到此次疫情对于美团外卖配送既是挑战，同时也是一次推进其配送场景优化的窗口期。现阶段美团鲜明的提出“无接触配送”服务概念，对于普通消费者通过备注不接触配送偏好方式进行，而针对医院等集体客户端则开始尝试设置取餐柜。截至1月27日，“无接触配送”已在全国184个城市上线，很快将覆盖全国大部分城市。\n\n该模式升级成型后若能在普通消费者群体内推广，取餐柜之于美团或将起到极大助推作用——完全解决了现阶段骑手等待消费者取餐所产生的时间消耗与其他纠纷；联想到菜鸟驿站推出的“菜鸟小盒”，功能齐全的取餐柜对于消费者实际上能够形成沉没成本，进一步争夺市场用户，提升用户粘性。\n新业务受疫情影响更小，且生鲜类、医药类的非餐订单需求会大幅度放量增长。由于新业务盈利能力的不断改善，估值提升是必然的一个结果。保守起见，2020年依然可以给予零估值。\n综上所述，我们继续维持原有的目标价，128港币，给予“买入”评级。考虑到，从估值角度来看，当前美团已经接近“绝对底部”，我们给予重点推荐。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}