股王下午好的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股王下午好

股王下午好

作为新手的我感觉像过山车

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股王下午好

2020-11-02

$吉利汽车(00175)$不错今天

股王下午好

2020-07-28

连续两个星期涨得这么高，可惜没有跟

股王下午好

2020-07-22

钱乃身外之物，怕个锤子，干就完了，真的完了

2600亿解禁来袭，你怕了吗？

股王下午好

2020-07-17

$中证白酒(399997)$昨天一天回到解放前

股王下午好

2020-07-16

$中证白酒(399997)$跌没了

股王下午好

2020-07-16

$中证白酒(399997)$今日啥情况？

股王下午好

2020-07-15

$中证白酒(399997)$不错不错，味道好极了

股王下午好

2020-07-08

$RealNetworks(RNWK)$玩玩

股王下午好

2020-07-07

$中证白酒(399997)$今日走势如何

股王下午好

2020-07-03

$中证白酒(399997)$都好好的患得患失

股王下午好

2020-07-03

最近怎么样这支股票行情

股王下午好

2020-07-03

$中证白酒(399997)$今日走势如何，各位大佬一起讨论讨论

股王下午好

2019-10-10

我是新手，老司机带带我

股王下午好

2019-10-10

$中证白酒(399997)$ 今天又跌了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">$吉利汽车(00175)$</a>不错今天","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00175\">$吉利汽车(00175)$</a>不错今天","text":"$吉利汽车(00175)$不错今天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306199035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946551268,"gmtCreate":1595927765454,"gmtModify":1704210283669,"author":{"id":"3530418045228699","authorId":"3530418045228699","name":"股王下午好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f690d48f1c0a393dcd815816bb58f850","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"连续两个星期涨得这么高，可惜没有跟","listText":"连续两个星期涨得这么高，可惜没有跟","text":"连续两个星期涨得这么高，可惜没有跟","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946551268","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":948288592,"gmtCreate":1595390954316,"gmtModify":1704208786505,"author":{"id":"3530418045228699","authorId":"3530418045228699","name":"股王下午好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f690d48f1c0a393dcd815816bb58f850","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"钱乃身外之物，怕个锤子，干就完了，真的完了","listText":"钱乃身外之物，怕个锤子，干就完了，真的完了","text":"钱乃身外之物，怕个锤子，干就完了，真的完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/948288592","repostId":"1198073731","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198073731","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"“一号在手，投资无忧！”此微信公众号为中信证券研究报告权威发布平台，力求信息及时、准确，是您投资好帮手！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中信证券研究","id":"1010577552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b"},"pubTimestamp":1595383458,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198073731?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-22 10:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"2600亿解禁来袭，你怕了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198073731","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"2600亿解禁规模，算高么？这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：。本周解禁规模占7月解禁规模超四成。本周解禁规模排名2017年以来周解禁第二高。毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。","content":"<p>这两天“解禁”是个高频词，出现的时候往往会带上“巨额”、“洪峰”等有点耸人听闻的词汇，挑动着大家的神经。</p>\n<p>今天，小编就来集中回答大家关于解禁最关心的几个问题。</p>\n<p><b>2600亿解禁规模，算高么？</b></p>\n<p>这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日（7月22日-7月24日）的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模<b>占7月解禁规模超四成</b>（7月为全年解禁峰值月）。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>年内第二高</b>。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>2017年以来周解禁第二高</b>。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>所以，当下搞明白解禁这个事，还是有必要的。</p>\n<p><b>本周每日解禁分布</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/011d29bcfdc5c99b58b54749bdf209ce\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"640\"></p>\n<p><b>解禁=减持=市场大跌？</b></p>\n<p><b>不应该如此暴力推断！</b>两个原因：</p>\n<p>❶股市是个复杂的资本博弈场，从来不只受单一因素左右。</p>\n<p>❷股票是解禁了，但并不是想减持就能减持。</p>\n<p>2017年5月起，证监会陆续发布的多项减持规定，对包括原始股东在内的各类股东的减持行为都做了严格限制，包括减持方式、减持数量等方面。</p>\n<p>我们以科创板的减持规则为例，持有特定股份的股东，无论其持股比例，在任意连续90日内，通过竞价交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的1%，通过大宗交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的2%。也就是说，连续90个交易日合计不得超过3%。</p>\n<p>总结来说，减持新规拉长了解禁股份的减持周期，从“解禁规模”到“可减持规模”到真正撼动股价的“实际减持规模”会大幅“减速”。</p>\n<p>小编统计了2017年5月减持新规实施以来的周减持规模及周解禁规模，尽管解禁和减持动作我们无法一一对应，但至少可以看出，巨额解禁绝不等于巨额减持。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周减持及解禁规模对比（亿元）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8aff1a760b2473f97489680ded6d0e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>如果我们将历史周解禁规模与当周市场表现放到一起，同样可以看到，两者间并无确定性的此消彼长的关系。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周解禁规模与上证指数走势对比</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee69755416a92cc89bfa9d5ea6de4df\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"389\"></p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>单周解禁规模超千亿元对应的上证指数表现</b></p>\n<p>（按周解禁规模由低到高排序）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74ee02d361d33c782a94294732ba988\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p>至此，我们可以下第一个结论：</p>\n<p><b>从市场层面，解禁绝非洪水猛兽。</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁对个股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p>至于个股而言，事请就有些不一样了。</p>\n<p>毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。</p>\n<p>小编选取了部分解禁规模破百亿的个股，可以看到股价在解禁当日，确有承压的现象出现。</p>\n<p>那么，该如何判断解禁对于个股的影响呢。小编总结了四点，供参考。</p>\n<p>❶<b>看解禁市值、解禁数量及所涉及的股东数量。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，解禁市值越大、解禁数量越多、涉及的股东数量越多，则股价所受的压力就越大。</p>\n<p>不过新规下，理论上单一股东在连续90个交易日内可减持股份数不超过总股本的3%，所以实际可减持的数量及市值可能并没有那么大。</p>\n<p>一般来说，大额解禁前上市公司都会发布相关提示性公告，大家可进行关注。另外，当前的交易软件中会有个股大事提醒功能，也相对便捷。我们以信e投APP为例，在个股行情界面，通过“新闻-大事提醒”即可查看近期解禁数据。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d328264dca4d3bba9ce293c2bc2e2de\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1294\"></p>\n<p>❷<b>看限售股持有人类型。</b></p>\n<p>总体来说，限售股份分为首发原股东限售股份、定向增发机构配售股份、股权激励限售股份等类型。其中，前两类占据了绝大比例。</p>\n<p>为了预估解禁的冲击力，大家不妨换位思考想想持有人的减持欲望有多大。</p>\n<p>限售股的股东类型，同样可在普通交易软件中获得。对于本月剩余的大额解禁股的类型，大家可在文末获取。</p>\n<p>❸<b>看解禁收益。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，现价较成本价涨幅越大减持动力可能就越高。</p>\n<p>不同的限售股其解禁收益也不一而同，其中原始股的成本价通常要远低于市价，相关股东的减持动力较高。</p>\n<p>另外，定增股、配售股都有明确的成本线，通过回查相关公告后，即可计算其收益情况。</p>\n<p><b>定增公告中发行价表述示例</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46319ed1fcad46ff9c952bd3ae9c9b6e\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"115\"></p>\n<p>❹<b>看市场环境。</b></p>\n<p>股价短期走势容易受市场情绪影响，所以市场低迷时投资者可能会被负面情绪传染，亦或比较敏感，一些风吹草动都可能被放大而引起“股价血案”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>写在最后</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>至此，对于解禁该有的正确认知，小编总结为一句话：<b>解禁不是洪水猛兽，短期冲击因股而异。</b></p>\n<p>对于本周的解禁高峰，尤其是7月22日的首批科创板个股的解禁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>投资顾问部提到如下观点，供大家参考。</p>\n<p><b>7月22日共有25家科创板公司的31.47亿股解禁，解禁市值规模达2185亿元，实际可减持规模约1200亿。其中创投资本浮盈丰厚，减持动力较强。虽然实际减持压力相对有限，且市场对此已有充分预期，但首批科创板公司解禁对市场风险偏好仍有负面影响。</b></p>\n<p>最后，小编梳理了本月剩余几个交易日解禁市值超10亿元的个股概况，供大家查阅。</p>\n<p><b>本月剩余交易日</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁市值超10亿元个股概况</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea0c40ab41626b99b08a5228b76a6ef\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"1226\"></p>\n<p>—完—</p>\n<p>注：以上数据均来自Wind，数据统计截至2020年7月21日。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2600亿解禁来袭，你怕了吗？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2600亿解禁来袭，你怕了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1010577552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中信证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-22 10:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>这两天“解禁”是个高频词，出现的时候往往会带上“巨额”、“洪峰”等有点耸人听闻的词汇，挑动着大家的神经。</p>\n<p>今天，小编就来集中回答大家关于解禁最关心的几个问题。</p>\n<p><b>2600亿解禁规模，算高么？</b></p>\n<p>这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日（7月22日-7月24日）的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模<b>占7月解禁规模超四成</b>（7月为全年解禁峰值月）。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>年内第二高</b>。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>2017年以来周解禁第二高</b>。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>所以，当下搞明白解禁这个事，还是有必要的。</p>\n<p><b>本周每日解禁分布</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/011d29bcfdc5c99b58b54749bdf209ce\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"640\"></p>\n<p><b>解禁=减持=市场大跌？</b></p>\n<p><b>不应该如此暴力推断！</b>两个原因：</p>\n<p>❶股市是个复杂的资本博弈场，从来不只受单一因素左右。</p>\n<p>❷股票是解禁了，但并不是想减持就能减持。</p>\n<p>2017年5月起，证监会陆续发布的多项减持规定，对包括原始股东在内的各类股东的减持行为都做了严格限制，包括减持方式、减持数量等方面。</p>\n<p>我们以科创板的减持规则为例，持有特定股份的股东，无论其持股比例，在任意连续90日内，通过竞价交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的1%，通过大宗交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的2%。也就是说，连续90个交易日合计不得超过3%。</p>\n<p>总结来说，减持新规拉长了解禁股份的减持周期，从“解禁规模”到“可减持规模”到真正撼动股价的“实际减持规模”会大幅“减速”。</p>\n<p>小编统计了2017年5月减持新规实施以来的周减持规模及周解禁规模，尽管解禁和减持动作我们无法一一对应，但至少可以看出，巨额解禁绝不等于巨额减持。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周减持及解禁规模对比（亿元）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8aff1a760b2473f97489680ded6d0e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>如果我们将历史周解禁规模与当周市场表现放到一起，同样可以看到，两者间并无确定性的此消彼长的关系。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周解禁规模与上证指数走势对比</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee69755416a92cc89bfa9d5ea6de4df\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"389\"></p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>单周解禁规模超千亿元对应的上证指数表现</b></p>\n<p>（按周解禁规模由低到高排序）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74ee02d361d33c782a94294732ba988\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p>至此，我们可以下第一个结论：</p>\n<p><b>从市场层面，解禁绝非洪水猛兽。</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁对个股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p>至于个股而言，事请就有些不一样了。</p>\n<p>毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。</p>\n<p>小编选取了部分解禁规模破百亿的个股，可以看到股价在解禁当日，确有承压的现象出现。</p>\n<p>那么，该如何判断解禁对于个股的影响呢。小编总结了四点，供参考。</p>\n<p>❶<b>看解禁市值、解禁数量及所涉及的股东数量。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，解禁市值越大、解禁数量越多、涉及的股东数量越多，则股价所受的压力就越大。</p>\n<p>不过新规下，理论上单一股东在连续90个交易日内可减持股份数不超过总股本的3%，所以实际可减持的数量及市值可能并没有那么大。</p>\n<p>一般来说，大额解禁前上市公司都会发布相关提示性公告，大家可进行关注。另外，当前的交易软件中会有个股大事提醒功能，也相对便捷。我们以信e投APP为例，在个股行情界面，通过“新闻-大事提醒”即可查看近期解禁数据。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d328264dca4d3bba9ce293c2bc2e2de\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1294\"></p>\n<p>❷<b>看限售股持有人类型。</b></p>\n<p>总体来说，限售股份分为首发原股东限售股份、定向增发机构配售股份、股权激励限售股份等类型。其中，前两类占据了绝大比例。</p>\n<p>为了预估解禁的冲击力，大家不妨换位思考想想持有人的减持欲望有多大。</p>\n<p>限售股的股东类型，同样可在普通交易软件中获得。对于本月剩余的大额解禁股的类型，大家可在文末获取。</p>\n<p>❸<b>看解禁收益。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，现价较成本价涨幅越大减持动力可能就越高。</p>\n<p>不同的限售股其解禁收益也不一而同，其中原始股的成本价通常要远低于市价，相关股东的减持动力较高。</p>\n<p>另外，定增股、配售股都有明确的成本线，通过回查相关公告后，即可计算其收益情况。</p>\n<p><b>定增公告中发行价表述示例</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46319ed1fcad46ff9c952bd3ae9c9b6e\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"115\"></p>\n<p>❹<b>看市场环境。</b></p>\n<p>股价短期走势容易受市场情绪影响，所以市场低迷时投资者可能会被负面情绪传染，亦或比较敏感，一些风吹草动都可能被放大而引起“股价血案”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>写在最后</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>至此，对于解禁该有的正确认知，小编总结为一句话：<b>解禁不是洪水猛兽，短期冲击因股而异。</b></p>\n<p>对于本周的解禁高峰，尤其是7月22日的首批科创板个股的解禁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>投资顾问部提到如下观点，供大家参考。</p>\n<p><b>7月22日共有25家科创板公司的31.47亿股解禁，解禁市值规模达2185亿元，实际可减持规模约1200亿。其中创投资本浮盈丰厚，减持动力较强。虽然实际减持压力相对有限，且市场对此已有充分预期，但首批科创板公司解禁对市场风险偏好仍有负面影响。</b></p>\n<p>最后，小编梳理了本月剩余几个交易日解禁市值超10亿元的个股概况，供大家查阅。</p>\n<p><b>本月剩余交易日</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁市值超10亿元个股概况</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea0c40ab41626b99b08a5228b76a6ef\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"1226\"></p>\n<p>—完—</p>\n<p>注：以上数据均来自Wind，数据统计截至2020年7月21日。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98630a44f464de26f96dfd2852dcae58","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198073731","content_text":"这两天“解禁”是个高频词，出现的时候往往会带上“巨额”、“洪峰”等有点耸人听闻的词汇，挑动着大家的神经。\n今天，小编就来集中回答大家关于解禁最关心的几个问题。\n2600亿解禁规模，算高么？\n这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日（7月22日-7月24日）的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：\n\n本周解禁规模占7月解禁规模超四成（7月为全年解禁峰值月）。\n本周解禁规模排名年内第二高。\n本周解禁规模排名2017年以来周解禁第二高。\n\n所以，当下搞明白解禁这个事，还是有必要的。\n本周每日解禁分布\n\n解禁=减持=市场大跌？\n不应该如此暴力推断！两个原因：\n❶股市是个复杂的资本博弈场，从来不只受单一因素左右。\n❷股票是解禁了，但并不是想减持就能减持。\n2017年5月起，证监会陆续发布的多项减持规定，对包括原始股东在内的各类股东的减持行为都做了严格限制，包括减持方式、减持数量等方面。\n我们以科创板的减持规则为例，持有特定股份的股东，无论其持股比例，在任意连续90日内，通过竞价交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的1%，通过大宗交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的2%。也就是说，连续90个交易日合计不得超过3%。\n总结来说，减持新规拉长了解禁股份的减持周期，从“解禁规模”到“可减持规模”到真正撼动股价的“实际减持规模”会大幅“减速”。\n小编统计了2017年5月减持新规实施以来的周减持规模及周解禁规模，尽管解禁和减持动作我们无法一一对应，但至少可以看出，巨额解禁绝不等于巨额减持。\n减持新规发布以来\n每周减持及解禁规模对比（亿元）\n\n如果我们将历史周解禁规模与当周市场表现放到一起，同样可以看到，两者间并无确定性的此消彼长的关系。\n减持新规发布以来\n每周解禁规模与上证指数走势对比\n\n减持新规发布以来\n单周解禁规模超千亿元对应的上证指数表现\n（按周解禁规模由低到高排序）\n\n至此，我们可以下第一个结论：\n从市场层面，解禁绝非洪水猛兽。\n解禁对个股影响几何？\n至于个股而言，事请就有些不一样了。\n毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。\n小编选取了部分解禁规模破百亿的个股，可以看到股价在解禁当日，确有承压的现象出现。\n那么，该如何判断解禁对于个股的影响呢。小编总结了四点，供参考。\n❶看解禁市值、解禁数量及所涉及的股东数量。\n一般来说，解禁市值越大、解禁数量越多、涉及的股东数量越多，则股价所受的压力就越大。\n不过新规下，理论上单一股东在连续90个交易日内可减持股份数不超过总股本的3%，所以实际可减持的数量及市值可能并没有那么大。\n一般来说，大额解禁前上市公司都会发布相关提示性公告，大家可进行关注。另外，当前的交易软件中会有个股大事提醒功能，也相对便捷。我们以信e投APP为例，在个股行情界面，通过“新闻-大事提醒”即可查看近期解禁数据。\n\n❷看限售股持有人类型。\n总体来说，限售股份分为首发原股东限售股份、定向增发机构配售股份、股权激励限售股份等类型。其中，前两类占据了绝大比例。\n为了预估解禁的冲击力，大家不妨换位思考想想持有人的减持欲望有多大。\n限售股的股东类型，同样可在普通交易软件中获得。对于本月剩余的大额解禁股的类型，大家可在文末获取。\n❸看解禁收益。\n一般来说，现价较成本价涨幅越大减持动力可能就越高。\n不同的限售股其解禁收益也不一而同，其中原始股的成本价通常要远低于市价，相关股东的减持动力较高。\n另外，定增股、配售股都有明确的成本线，通过回查相关公告后，即可计算其收益情况。\n定增公告中发行价表述示例\n\n❹看市场环境。\n股价短期走势容易受市场情绪影响，所以市场低迷时投资者可能会被负面情绪传染，亦或比较敏感，一些风吹草动都可能被放大而引起“股价血案”。\n\n写在最后\n\n至此，对于解禁该有的正确认知，小编总结为一句话：解禁不是洪水猛兽，短期冲击因股而异。\n对于本周的解禁高峰，尤其是7月22日的首批科创板个股的解禁，中信证券投资顾问部提到如下观点，供大家参考。\n7月22日共有25家科创板公司的31.47亿股解禁，解禁市值规模达2185亿元，实际可减持规模约1200亿。其中创投资本浮盈丰厚，减持动力较强。虽然实际减持压力相对有限，且市场对此已有充分预期，但首批科创板公司解禁对市场风险偏好仍有负面影响。\n最后，小编梳理了本月剩余几个交易日解禁市值超10亿元的个股概况，供大家查阅。\n本月剩余交易日\n解禁市值超10亿元个股概况\n\n—完—\n注：以上数据均来自Wind，数据统计截至2020年7月21日。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941513977,"gmtCreate":1594957193199,"gmtModify":1704207549107,"author":{"id":"3530418045228699","authorId":"3530418045228699","name":"股王下午好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f690d48f1c0a393dcd815816bb58f850","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399997\">$中证白酒(399997)$</a>昨天一天回到解放前","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399997\">$中证白酒(399997)$</a>昨天一天回到解放前","text":"$中证白酒(399997)$昨天一天回到解放前","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941513977","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941668369,"gmtCreate":1594893454851,"gmtModify":1704207304910,"author":{"id":"3530418045228699","authorId":"3530418045228699","name":"股王下午好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f690d48f1c0a393dcd815816bb58f850","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399997\">$中证白酒(399997)$</a>跌没了","listText":"<a 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10:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"2600亿解禁来袭，你怕了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198073731","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"2600亿解禁规模，算高么？这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：。本周解禁规模占7月解禁规模超四成。本周解禁规模排名2017年以来周解禁第二高。毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。","content":"<p>这两天“解禁”是个高频词，出现的时候往往会带上“巨额”、“洪峰”等有点耸人听闻的词汇，挑动着大家的神经。</p>\n<p>今天，小编就来集中回答大家关于解禁最关心的几个问题。</p>\n<p><b>2600亿解禁规模，算高么？</b></p>\n<p>这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日（7月22日-7月24日）的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模<b>占7月解禁规模超四成</b>（7月为全年解禁峰值月）。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>年内第二高</b>。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>2017年以来周解禁第二高</b>。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>所以，当下搞明白解禁这个事，还是有必要的。</p>\n<p><b>本周每日解禁分布</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/011d29bcfdc5c99b58b54749bdf209ce\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"640\"></p>\n<p><b>解禁=减持=市场大跌？</b></p>\n<p><b>不应该如此暴力推断！</b>两个原因：</p>\n<p>❶股市是个复杂的资本博弈场，从来不只受单一因素左右。</p>\n<p>❷股票是解禁了，但并不是想减持就能减持。</p>\n<p>2017年5月起，证监会陆续发布的多项减持规定，对包括原始股东在内的各类股东的减持行为都做了严格限制，包括减持方式、减持数量等方面。</p>\n<p>我们以科创板的减持规则为例，持有特定股份的股东，无论其持股比例，在任意连续90日内，通过竞价交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的1%，通过大宗交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的2%。也就是说，连续90个交易日合计不得超过3%。</p>\n<p>总结来说，减持新规拉长了解禁股份的减持周期，从“解禁规模”到“可减持规模”到真正撼动股价的“实际减持规模”会大幅“减速”。</p>\n<p>小编统计了2017年5月减持新规实施以来的周减持规模及周解禁规模，尽管解禁和减持动作我们无法一一对应，但至少可以看出，巨额解禁绝不等于巨额减持。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周减持及解禁规模对比（亿元）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8aff1a760b2473f97489680ded6d0e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>如果我们将历史周解禁规模与当周市场表现放到一起，同样可以看到，两者间并无确定性的此消彼长的关系。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周解禁规模与上证指数走势对比</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee69755416a92cc89bfa9d5ea6de4df\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"389\"></p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>单周解禁规模超千亿元对应的上证指数表现</b></p>\n<p>（按周解禁规模由低到高排序）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74ee02d361d33c782a94294732ba988\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p>至此，我们可以下第一个结论：</p>\n<p><b>从市场层面，解禁绝非洪水猛兽。</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁对个股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p>至于个股而言，事请就有些不一样了。</p>\n<p>毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。</p>\n<p>小编选取了部分解禁规模破百亿的个股，可以看到股价在解禁当日，确有承压的现象出现。</p>\n<p>那么，该如何判断解禁对于个股的影响呢。小编总结了四点，供参考。</p>\n<p>❶<b>看解禁市值、解禁数量及所涉及的股东数量。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，解禁市值越大、解禁数量越多、涉及的股东数量越多，则股价所受的压力就越大。</p>\n<p>不过新规下，理论上单一股东在连续90个交易日内可减持股份数不超过总股本的3%，所以实际可减持的数量及市值可能并没有那么大。</p>\n<p>一般来说，大额解禁前上市公司都会发布相关提示性公告，大家可进行关注。另外，当前的交易软件中会有个股大事提醒功能，也相对便捷。我们以信e投APP为例，在个股行情界面，通过“新闻-大事提醒”即可查看近期解禁数据。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d328264dca4d3bba9ce293c2bc2e2de\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1294\"></p>\n<p>❷<b>看限售股持有人类型。</b></p>\n<p>总体来说，限售股份分为首发原股东限售股份、定向增发机构配售股份、股权激励限售股份等类型。其中，前两类占据了绝大比例。</p>\n<p>为了预估解禁的冲击力，大家不妨换位思考想想持有人的减持欲望有多大。</p>\n<p>限售股的股东类型，同样可在普通交易软件中获得。对于本月剩余的大额解禁股的类型，大家可在文末获取。</p>\n<p>❸<b>看解禁收益。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，现价较成本价涨幅越大减持动力可能就越高。</p>\n<p>不同的限售股其解禁收益也不一而同，其中原始股的成本价通常要远低于市价，相关股东的减持动力较高。</p>\n<p>另外，定增股、配售股都有明确的成本线，通过回查相关公告后，即可计算其收益情况。</p>\n<p><b>定增公告中发行价表述示例</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46319ed1fcad46ff9c952bd3ae9c9b6e\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"115\"></p>\n<p>❹<b>看市场环境。</b></p>\n<p>股价短期走势容易受市场情绪影响，所以市场低迷时投资者可能会被负面情绪传染，亦或比较敏感，一些风吹草动都可能被放大而引起“股价血案”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>写在最后</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>至此，对于解禁该有的正确认知，小编总结为一句话：<b>解禁不是洪水猛兽，短期冲击因股而异。</b></p>\n<p>对于本周的解禁高峰，尤其是7月22日的首批科创板个股的解禁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>投资顾问部提到如下观点，供大家参考。</p>\n<p><b>7月22日共有25家科创板公司的31.47亿股解禁，解禁市值规模达2185亿元，实际可减持规模约1200亿。其中创投资本浮盈丰厚，减持动力较强。虽然实际减持压力相对有限，且市场对此已有充分预期，但首批科创板公司解禁对市场风险偏好仍有负面影响。</b></p>\n<p>最后，小编梳理了本月剩余几个交易日解禁市值超10亿元的个股概况，供大家查阅。</p>\n<p><b>本月剩余交易日</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁市值超10亿元个股概况</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea0c40ab41626b99b08a5228b76a6ef\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"1226\"></p>\n<p>—完—</p>\n<p>注：以上数据均来自Wind，数据统计截至2020年7月21日。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2600亿解禁来袭，你怕了吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2600亿解禁来袭，你怕了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1010577552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中信证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-22 10:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>这两天“解禁”是个高频词，出现的时候往往会带上“巨额”、“洪峰”等有点耸人听闻的词汇，挑动着大家的神经。</p>\n<p>今天，小编就来集中回答大家关于解禁最关心的几个问题。</p>\n<p><b>2600亿解禁规模，算高么？</b></p>\n<p>这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日（7月22日-7月24日）的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模<b>占7月解禁规模超四成</b>（7月为全年解禁峰值月）。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>年内第二高</b>。</p></li>\n <li><p>本周解禁规模排名<b>2017年以来周解禁第二高</b>。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>所以，当下搞明白解禁这个事，还是有必要的。</p>\n<p><b>本周每日解禁分布</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/011d29bcfdc5c99b58b54749bdf209ce\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"640\"></p>\n<p><b>解禁=减持=市场大跌？</b></p>\n<p><b>不应该如此暴力推断！</b>两个原因：</p>\n<p>❶股市是个复杂的资本博弈场，从来不只受单一因素左右。</p>\n<p>❷股票是解禁了，但并不是想减持就能减持。</p>\n<p>2017年5月起，证监会陆续发布的多项减持规定，对包括原始股东在内的各类股东的减持行为都做了严格限制，包括减持方式、减持数量等方面。</p>\n<p>我们以科创板的减持规则为例，持有特定股份的股东，无论其持股比例，在任意连续90日内，通过竞价交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的1%，通过大宗交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的2%。也就是说，连续90个交易日合计不得超过3%。</p>\n<p>总结来说，减持新规拉长了解禁股份的减持周期，从“解禁规模”到“可减持规模”到真正撼动股价的“实际减持规模”会大幅“减速”。</p>\n<p>小编统计了2017年5月减持新规实施以来的周减持规模及周解禁规模，尽管解禁和减持动作我们无法一一对应，但至少可以看出，巨额解禁绝不等于巨额减持。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周减持及解禁规模对比（亿元）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8aff1a760b2473f97489680ded6d0e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>如果我们将历史周解禁规模与当周市场表现放到一起，同样可以看到，两者间并无确定性的此消彼长的关系。</p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>每周解禁规模与上证指数走势对比</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee69755416a92cc89bfa9d5ea6de4df\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"389\"></p>\n<p><b>减持新规发布以来</b></p>\n<p><b>单周解禁规模超千亿元对应的上证指数表现</b></p>\n<p>（按周解禁规模由低到高排序）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74ee02d361d33c782a94294732ba988\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p>至此，我们可以下第一个结论：</p>\n<p><b>从市场层面，解禁绝非洪水猛兽。</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁对个股影响几何？</b></p>\n<p>至于个股而言，事请就有些不一样了。</p>\n<p>毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。</p>\n<p>小编选取了部分解禁规模破百亿的个股，可以看到股价在解禁当日，确有承压的现象出现。</p>\n<p>那么，该如何判断解禁对于个股的影响呢。小编总结了四点，供参考。</p>\n<p>❶<b>看解禁市值、解禁数量及所涉及的股东数量。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，解禁市值越大、解禁数量越多、涉及的股东数量越多，则股价所受的压力就越大。</p>\n<p>不过新规下，理论上单一股东在连续90个交易日内可减持股份数不超过总股本的3%，所以实际可减持的数量及市值可能并没有那么大。</p>\n<p>一般来说，大额解禁前上市公司都会发布相关提示性公告，大家可进行关注。另外，当前的交易软件中会有个股大事提醒功能，也相对便捷。我们以信e投APP为例，在个股行情界面，通过“新闻-大事提醒”即可查看近期解禁数据。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d328264dca4d3bba9ce293c2bc2e2de\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"1294\"></p>\n<p>❷<b>看限售股持有人类型。</b></p>\n<p>总体来说，限售股份分为首发原股东限售股份、定向增发机构配售股份、股权激励限售股份等类型。其中，前两类占据了绝大比例。</p>\n<p>为了预估解禁的冲击力，大家不妨换位思考想想持有人的减持欲望有多大。</p>\n<p>限售股的股东类型，同样可在普通交易软件中获得。对于本月剩余的大额解禁股的类型，大家可在文末获取。</p>\n<p>❸<b>看解禁收益。</b></p>\n<p>一般来说，现价较成本价涨幅越大减持动力可能就越高。</p>\n<p>不同的限售股其解禁收益也不一而同，其中原始股的成本价通常要远低于市价，相关股东的减持动力较高。</p>\n<p>另外，定增股、配售股都有明确的成本线，通过回查相关公告后，即可计算其收益情况。</p>\n<p><b>定增公告中发行价表述示例</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46319ed1fcad46ff9c952bd3ae9c9b6e\" tg-width=\"851\" tg-height=\"115\"></p>\n<p>❹<b>看市场环境。</b></p>\n<p>股价短期走势容易受市场情绪影响，所以市场低迷时投资者可能会被负面情绪传染，亦或比较敏感，一些风吹草动都可能被放大而引起“股价血案”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>写在最后</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>至此，对于解禁该有的正确认知，小编总结为一句话：<b>解禁不是洪水猛兽，短期冲击因股而异。</b></p>\n<p>对于本周的解禁高峰，尤其是7月22日的首批科创板个股的解禁，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>投资顾问部提到如下观点，供大家参考。</p>\n<p><b>7月22日共有25家科创板公司的31.47亿股解禁，解禁市值规模达2185亿元，实际可减持规模约1200亿。其中创投资本浮盈丰厚，减持动力较强。虽然实际减持压力相对有限，且市场对此已有充分预期，但首批科创板公司解禁对市场风险偏好仍有负面影响。</b></p>\n<p>最后，小编梳理了本月剩余几个交易日解禁市值超10亿元的个股概况，供大家查阅。</p>\n<p><b>本月剩余交易日</b></p>\n<p><b>解禁市值超10亿元个股概况</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea0c40ab41626b99b08a5228b76a6ef\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"1226\"></p>\n<p>—完—</p>\n<p>注：以上数据均来自Wind，数据统计截至2020年7月21日。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98630a44f464de26f96dfd2852dcae58","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198073731","content_text":"这两天“解禁”是个高频词，出现的时候往往会带上“巨额”、“洪峰”等有点耸人听闻的词汇，挑动着大家的神经。\n今天，小编就来集中回答大家关于解禁最关心的几个问题。\n2600亿解禁规模，算高么？\n这2600亿还仅是本周剩余3个交易日（7月22日-7月24日）的解禁额，如果按全周计算，总解禁规模则达到了3177亿，可以说是比较高了，数据为证：\n\n本周解禁规模占7月解禁规模超四成（7月为全年解禁峰值月）。\n本周解禁规模排名年内第二高。\n本周解禁规模排名2017年以来周解禁第二高。\n\n所以，当下搞明白解禁这个事，还是有必要的。\n本周每日解禁分布\n\n解禁=减持=市场大跌？\n不应该如此暴力推断！两个原因：\n❶股市是个复杂的资本博弈场，从来不只受单一因素左右。\n❷股票是解禁了，但并不是想减持就能减持。\n2017年5月起，证监会陆续发布的多项减持规定，对包括原始股东在内的各类股东的减持行为都做了严格限制，包括减持方式、减持数量等方面。\n我们以科创板的减持规则为例，持有特定股份的股东，无论其持股比例，在任意连续90日内，通过竞价交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的1%，通过大宗交易减持的解禁限售股不得超过总股本的2%。也就是说，连续90个交易日合计不得超过3%。\n总结来说，减持新规拉长了解禁股份的减持周期，从“解禁规模”到“可减持规模”到真正撼动股价的“实际减持规模”会大幅“减速”。\n小编统计了2017年5月减持新规实施以来的周减持规模及周解禁规模，尽管解禁和减持动作我们无法一一对应，但至少可以看出，巨额解禁绝不等于巨额减持。\n减持新规发布以来\n每周减持及解禁规模对比（亿元）\n\n如果我们将历史周解禁规模与当周市场表现放到一起，同样可以看到，两者间并无确定性的此消彼长的关系。\n减持新规发布以来\n每周解禁规模与上证指数走势对比\n\n减持新规发布以来\n单周解禁规模超千亿元对应的上证指数表现\n（按周解禁规模由低到高排序）\n\n至此，我们可以下第一个结论：\n从市场层面，解禁绝非洪水猛兽。\n解禁对个股影响几何？\n至于个股而言，事请就有些不一样了。\n毕竟限售股解禁，给到了资金离场的自由选择权，当遇到股东减持意愿较强时，也会对股价造成短时冲击。\n小编选取了部分解禁规模破百亿的个股，可以看到股价在解禁当日，确有承压的现象出现。\n那么，该如何判断解禁对于个股的影响呢。小编总结了四点，供参考。\n❶看解禁市值、解禁数量及所涉及的股东数量。\n一般来说，解禁市值越大、解禁数量越多、涉及的股东数量越多，则股价所受的压力就越大。\n不过新规下，理论上单一股东在连续90个交易日内可减持股份数不超过总股本的3%，所以实际可减持的数量及市值可能并没有那么大。\n一般来说，大额解禁前上市公司都会发布相关提示性公告，大家可进行关注。另外，当前的交易软件中会有个股大事提醒功能，也相对便捷。我们以信e投APP为例，在个股行情界面，通过“新闻-大事提醒”即可查看近期解禁数据。\n\n❷看限售股持有人类型。\n总体来说，限售股份分为首发原股东限售股份、定向增发机构配售股份、股权激励限售股份等类型。其中，前两类占据了绝大比例。\n为了预估解禁的冲击力，大家不妨换位思考想想持有人的减持欲望有多大。\n限售股的股东类型，同样可在普通交易软件中获得。对于本月剩余的大额解禁股的类型，大家可在文末获取。\n❸看解禁收益。\n一般来说，现价较成本价涨幅越大减持动力可能就越高。\n不同的限售股其解禁收益也不一而同，其中原始股的成本价通常要远低于市价，相关股东的减持动力较高。\n另外，定增股、配售股都有明确的成本线，通过回查相关公告后，即可计算其收益情况。\n定增公告中发行价表述示例\n\n❹看市场环境。\n股价短期走势容易受市场情绪影响，所以市场低迷时投资者可能会被负面情绪传染，亦或比较敏感，一些风吹草动都可能被放大而引起“股价血案”。\n\n写在最后\n\n至此，对于解禁该有的正确认知，小编总结为一句话：解禁不是洪水猛兽，短期冲击因股而异。\n对于本周的解禁高峰，尤其是7月22日的首批科创板个股的解禁，中信证券投资顾问部提到如下观点，供大家参考。\n7月22日共有25家科创板公司的31.47亿股解禁，解禁市值规模达2185亿元，实际可减持规模约1200亿。其中创投资本浮盈丰厚，减持动力较强。虽然实际减持压力相对有限，且市场对此已有充分预期，但首批科创板公司解禁对市场风险偏好仍有负面影响。\n最后，小编梳理了本月剩余几个交易日解禁市值超10亿元的个股概况，供大家查阅。\n本月剩余交易日\n解禁市值超10亿元个股概况\n\n—完—\n注：以上数据均来自Wind，数据统计截至2020年7月21日。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":931825981,"gmtCreate":1570680947443,"gmtModify":1704721131475,"author":{"id":"3530418045228699","authorId":"3530418045228699","name":"股王下午好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f690d48f1c0a393dcd815816bb58f850","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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