游骞桦的个人主页 - 老虎社区

游骞桦

游骞桦

全凭手感，只看运气

IP属地：广东

38关注

87粉丝

4主题

0勋章

08-01

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$ 31个内部人抛售股票而且还不回购，这不就是跑路的前奏吗？CEO都带头抛售了

07-30

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$ 高盛都给出卖出评级，那些营销号还使劲的无脑吹。

03-14

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 快跑啊，崩盘了，华尔街出事了！！！

08-09

$GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT$

08-01

31个内部人员都在抛售并且不会回购，不知道它上涨空间在哪[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 真的搞笑，纯杀猪盘股票。

QuantumScape Corporation: Attractive Upside For Patient Investors

06-17

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

06-12

还可以吧

06-12

还行吧

06-07

$SMCI 20240628 775.0 PUT$ 还可以

03-15

不可能到这个价

01-06

可以睡个安稳觉[开心]

01-27

$蔚来(NIO)$ 李斌是真牛啊，这种情况下又拉到了大投资，造车平平，拉投资有一手啊[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]

07-25

说的好，大快人[爱心] [强] [强] [强]

Quantumscape二季度财报令人失望，全年展望也无亮点

07-29

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$散户都要擦亮眼睛，看清楚再做决定，不要被营销号给欺骗。你是被套了吧，这家公司技术根本就不做实，不知道你有没有去看他们的技术展会，他们的技术完全无法达到量产，其次如果这个技术长时间无法进入市场，你觉得byd和宁德这种公司在两年内能不能出现量产固态，毕竟宁德已经实现半固态量产，但是这家公司实现量产还需要3年，实际应用和汽车迭代有需要一年。新能源市场到那个时候已经开始实现饱和。这个股票等于买了一张为期三年的彩票，短期没有任何的机遇，不段在以投资融资的消息进行股票拉升，随即立即下降回调。完完全全在收割散户，每天都是极低的换手率，但是涨幅波动又非常的大。明眼人都知道这个股票存在问题，你这篇文章说的这么漂亮，不就是希望散户再进去当韭菜，我就想说大实话，希望大家都擦亮眼睛，有自己的见解，别被营销号给洗脑欺骗。

06-29

我开仓了$SMCI 20240719 840.0 PUT$ ,短线做t

10-23

$奈飞(NFLX)$ 哈里斯最大支持者是奈飞

07-09

能，破300没问题

07-02

我开仓了$TSLA 20240802 205.0 PUT$ ,put一手

06-27

我平仓了$SMCI 20240712 800.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

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哈里斯最大支持者是奈飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363044079239232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343343465570560,"gmtCreate":1724853199325,"gmtModify":1724853203697,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"兄弟你还好吗？","listText":"兄弟你还好吗？","text":"兄弟你还好吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7216b1eb0e0618edea9a20a06f4c728a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343343465570560","repostId":"343032828338392","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":343032828338392,"gmtCreate":1724766698999,"gmtModify":1730925171289,"author":{"id":"4093561479903300","authorId":"4093561479903300","name":"SPACE 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Obviously you lack the balls to short, that's why you can't do it in silence, just like another Kerrisdale shorting RIOT and MSTR months back. Anyways, thanks for the short because you let me purchase SMCI at such a desirable price 🙌🙌 Happy covering your short when the short squeeze happens 🤣😂","listText":"I opened <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$&nbsp;</a> ,Short all you want, Hindenburg Research. Obviously you lack the balls to short, that's why you can't do it in silence, just like another Kerrisdale shorting RIOT and MSTR months back. Anyways, thanks for the short because you let me purchase SMCI at such a desirable price 🙌🙌 Happy covering your short when the short squeeze happens 🤣😂","text":"I opened $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ ,Short all you want, Hindenburg Research. Obviously you lack the balls to short, that's why you can't do it in silence, just like another Kerrisdale shorting RIOT and MSTR months back. Anyways, thanks for the short because you let me purchase SMCI at such a desirable price 🙌🙌 Happy covering your short when the short squeeze happens 🤣😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343032828338392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336560743522448,"gmtCreate":1723176898711,"gmtModify":1723176901648,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT\">$GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT\">$GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a95e2b3fd7ef1916893a332a599cef","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336560743522448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333770010943544,"gmtCreate":1722519959659,"gmtModify":1722519961156,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a> 31个内部人抛售股票而且还不回购，这不就是跑路的前奏吗？CEO都带头抛售了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a> 31个内部人抛售股票而且还不回购，这不就是跑路的前奏吗？CEO都带头抛售了","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$ 31个内部人抛售股票而且还不回购，这不就是跑路的前奏吗？CEO都带头抛售了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333770010943544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569415942717509","authorId":"3569415942717509","name":"虎头虎脑也","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c91f89d6dee0c3aa1b8d8d33399d6c53","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569415942717509","idStr":"3569415942717509"},"content":"三哥在全世界都很成功，三哥和老中比，应该比老中强，首先老中内卷，其次洗脑太严重。","text":"三哥在全世界都很成功，三哥和老中比，应该比老中强，首先老中内卷，其次洗脑太严重。","html":"三哥在全世界都很成功，三哥和老中比，应该比老中强，首先老中内卷，其次洗脑太严重。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333766197616696,"gmtCreate":1722519028670,"gmtModify":1722519031089,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"31个内部人员都在抛售并且不会回购，不知道它上涨空间在哪[笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; 真的搞笑，纯杀猪盘股票。","listText":"31个内部人员都在抛售并且不会回购，不知道它上涨空间在哪[笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; 真的搞笑，纯杀猪盘股票。","text":"31个内部人员都在抛售并且不会回购，不知道它上涨空间在哪[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 真的搞笑，纯杀猪盘股票。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333766197616696","repostId":"2456483390","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456483390","pubTimestamp":1722510513,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2456483390?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-01 19:08","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"QuantumScape Corporation: Attractive Upside For Patient Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456483390","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.</li><li>QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue yet but making progress in R&amp;D and manufacturing.</li><li>Positive outlook on the recent licensing deal with PowerCo, strengthening the balance sheet, and reducing CAPEX intensity.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"4212px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"5616px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Hiroshi Watanabe</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Investment overview</h2> <p>I give a buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation (<span>NYSE:QS</span>), as I see attractive upside in the stock if QS delivers its product as expected. So far, QS is making good progress on all fronts: R&amp;D, manufacturing, and commercializing. The deal with<span> PowerCo recently was also very positive, as it makes the QS balance sheet stronger and also reduces the CAPEX intensity of the business.</span></p> <h2>Business description</h2> <p>QS designs and manufactures solid-state (glass) lithium-ion batteries that are used in electric vehicles [EV]. The main value propositions are that these batteries are safer, can be charged faster, and have a higher energy density when compared to traditional batteries. As of 2Q24, QS is not making any revenue (still in R&amp;D mode) and is still in cash burn mode. 2Q24 reported an operating loss of $134 million and an EBITDA loss of -$72.5 million, excluding<span> stock-based compensation.</span></p> <p>While the business is not generating meaningful revenue and profits today, I think the potential is huge if QS can deliver on what they promised. Progress so far has been promising, and I think patient investors will be able to reap the reward in due time.</p> <h2>Positive on licensing deal</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910710796268.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Earlier in June (11th July), QS announced a licensing deal with PowerCo (a subsidiary of Volkswagen). I am very positive about this on two fronts. Firstly, the deal includes a royalty pre-payment of $130 million and releases funds previously earmarked by QS for a JV. This eases the burden on the QS balance sheet and heavily extends the cash runway (more on this below). Secondly, it makes the QS operating model much more \"asset-light\", which means a high free cash flow profile over time as there are fewer capex needs and manufacturing costs.</p> <h2>R&amp;D and manufacturing process on track</h2> <p>The most important part of the QS stock narrative is how well the R&amp;D and manufacturing processes are doing, and encouragingly, they seem to be well on track.</p> <p>On R&amp;D and commercial traction, QS commented that customer engagements remain robust and that it has shipped Alpha-2 prototypes to multiple customers in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. This is promising because it lends credence to the product quality and reliability of the QS product, especially since it is still in prototype. One of my concerns with this battery technology (for EVs) is safety, especially in terms of battery fires. Positively, QS has shown good test results so far. Specifically, it was highlighted that the prototype cell testing demonstrated thermal stability up to 300 degrees Celsius. This is <em>very good</em> when considering that conventional high-energy lithium-ion cells burst into flames between 175 and 180 degrees.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910713995628.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If this works out well, it sets up a positive outlook for QS's upcoming QSE-5 cell (this is the main commercial opportunity). I am not expecting any major hiccups here, as the deal with PowerCo includes creating a dedicated and co-located team of experts from both companies that will collaborate to industrialize the battery technology.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-1722491071550268.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>On the manufacturing side, things are promising too. Progress so far certainly gives more confidence in Cobra (QS's next-gen process to mass produce QSE-5). The only trackable metric/progress now is the ramp up in Raptor (you can think of this as the lite version of Cobra). If Raptor progresses well, it should also mean that Cobra will work out well too. I take comfort in knowing that QS has finished ramping up on Raptor and that it is able to allocate more resources to the development of Cobra. This tells us two things. Firstly, results from Raptor must have been promising (QS uses Raptor as a testbed for Cobra). Secondly, QS is one step closer to meeting its 2025 target by ramping up Cobra for mass production.</p> <p>The upcoming key milestone to track is whether Raptor can successfully produce a B-sample product by the end of 2024. This will send a strong message to the market that Cobra is likely to work out well. Note that Cobra is a core component of the tech platform that PowerCo will be licensing.</p> <h2>Balance sheet enough capacity to sustain investments</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910711868503.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The big question mark is whether QS has sufficient cash to last until it starts generating meaningful revenue. Based on my math (and also management's estimates), QS should have no problems lasting long enough. As of 2Q24, QS has total cash and cash equivalents of ~$940 million and no debt (operating lease liabilities are $55.6 million, but not meaningful). Since the deal with PowerCo was announced in July, it means that $264 million is not included in the 2Q24 balance sheet. Total cash and cash equivalents should be around $1.2 billion.</p> <p>Current EBITDA guidance calls for FY24 adj EBITDA (excluding SBC) to be between -$250 and -$300 million and CAPEX for FY24 to be between $70 and $120 million, but with the expectation that it will come at the lower end of the range. This sums up to around ~$320 million. With the current cash balance, QS should be able to last close to 4 years before it needs to raise capital (call it mid-2028). Readers should also be reminded that this deal makes QS less OPEX and CAPEX intensive, so the cash burn rate should taper down gradually.</p> <h2>Valuation</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910714591231.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given that QS is still in the R&amp;D phase, forecasting the business is tough given the lack of historical precedent. Rather than plucking numbers from the sky and inputting them into Excel, I think a better way is to benchmark current performance against management's initial expectations. In the SPAC presentation, the expectation is for QS to start generating revenue in FY24 and turn EBITDA positive in FY27. As of 2Q24, QS is still not generating any revenue, and I think it's safe to say this is not going to be the year as Cobra is only expected to start high-volume production in FY25. This means that QS is about 2 years behind expectations.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910711423948.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>May Investing Ideas</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Assuming QS only achieves its ~$1.6 billion EBITDA target in 2030 and the stock trades at ~12x forward EBITDA (this is S&amp;P 10-year average multiple), Given that QS is still growing, it should minimally trade at market level. QS is worth an enterprise value of ~$19.5 billion, or FY30 share price of ~$39. Note that the $50 million won't swing the target price by a lot, but logically, it should go down from here since FCF after project financing only turns positive in the same year QS generates $1.6 billion of EBITDA.</p> <h2>Risk</h2> <p>There are no guarantees that QS will be able to deliver the product successfully as expected. If the product doesn't work out as well as it should, the entire investment thesis for QS will be challenged, and the equity value will take a strong hit. This is the biggest risk for QS, and it's a risk that one has to take when investing in such a business.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <div></div> <p>I give a buy rating for QS as the upside is attractive. There is promising progress made on multiple fronts, including R&amp;D, commercialization, and manufacturing, which gives confidence that QS can start to generate revenue soon. The recent licensing deal with PowerCo has also strengthened the company's balance sheet and reduced its CAPEX intensity. The risk is that QS fails to deliver, and this is something that investors must be comfortable with when investing in the stock.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QuantumScape Corporation: Attractive Upside For Patient Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape Corporation: Attractive Upside For Patient Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-01 19:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4708988-quantumscape-corporation-attractive-upside-for-patient-investors><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4708988-quantumscape-corporation-attractive-upside-for-patient-investors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4540":"固态电池","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","ISBC":"投资者银行","BK4545":"锂电池","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4708988-quantumscape-corporation-attractive-upside-for-patient-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2456483390","content_text":"Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue yet but making progress in R&D and manufacturing.Positive outlook on the recent licensing deal with PowerCo, strengthening the balance sheet, and reducing CAPEX intensity.Hiroshi Watanabe Investment overview I give a buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation (NYSE:QS), as I see attractive upside in the stock if QS delivers its product as expected. So far, QS is making good progress on all fronts: R&D, manufacturing, and commercializing. The deal with PowerCo recently was also very positive, as it makes the QS balance sheet stronger and also reduces the CAPEX intensity of the business. Business description QS designs and manufactures solid-state (glass) lithium-ion batteries that are used in electric vehicles [EV]. The main value propositions are that these batteries are safer, can be charged faster, and have a higher energy density when compared to traditional batteries. As of 2Q24, QS is not making any revenue (still in R&D mode) and is still in cash burn mode. 2Q24 reported an operating loss of $134 million and an EBITDA loss of -$72.5 million, excluding stock-based compensation. While the business is not generating meaningful revenue and profits today, I think the potential is huge if QS can deliver on what they promised. Progress so far has been promising, and I think patient investors will be able to reap the reward in due time. Positive on licensing deal QS Earlier in June (11th July), QS announced a licensing deal with PowerCo (a subsidiary of Volkswagen). I am very positive about this on two fronts. Firstly, the deal includes a royalty pre-payment of $130 million and releases funds previously earmarked by QS for a JV. This eases the burden on the QS balance sheet and heavily extends the cash runway (more on this below). Secondly, it makes the QS operating model much more \"asset-light\", which means a high free cash flow profile over time as there are fewer capex needs and manufacturing costs. R&D and manufacturing process on track The most important part of the QS stock narrative is how well the R&D and manufacturing processes are doing, and encouragingly, they seem to be well on track. On R&D and commercial traction, QS commented that customer engagements remain robust and that it has shipped Alpha-2 prototypes to multiple customers in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. This is promising because it lends credence to the product quality and reliability of the QS product, especially since it is still in prototype. One of my concerns with this battery technology (for EVs) is safety, especially in terms of battery fires. Positively, QS has shown good test results so far. Specifically, it was highlighted that the prototype cell testing demonstrated thermal stability up to 300 degrees Celsius. This is very good when considering that conventional high-energy lithium-ion cells burst into flames between 175 and 180 degrees. QS If this works out well, it sets up a positive outlook for QS's upcoming QSE-5 cell (this is the main commercial opportunity). I am not expecting any major hiccups here, as the deal with PowerCo includes creating a dedicated and co-located team of experts from both companies that will collaborate to industrialize the battery technology. QS On the manufacturing side, things are promising too. Progress so far certainly gives more confidence in Cobra (QS's next-gen process to mass produce QSE-5). The only trackable metric/progress now is the ramp up in Raptor (you can think of this as the lite version of Cobra). If Raptor progresses well, it should also mean that Cobra will work out well too. I take comfort in knowing that QS has finished ramping up on Raptor and that it is able to allocate more resources to the development of Cobra. This tells us two things. Firstly, results from Raptor must have been promising (QS uses Raptor as a testbed for Cobra). Secondly, QS is one step closer to meeting its 2025 target by ramping up Cobra for mass production. The upcoming key milestone to track is whether Raptor can successfully produce a B-sample product by the end of 2024. This will send a strong message to the market that Cobra is likely to work out well. Note that Cobra is a core component of the tech platform that PowerCo will be licensing. Balance sheet enough capacity to sustain investments QS The big question mark is whether QS has sufficient cash to last until it starts generating meaningful revenue. Based on my math (and also management's estimates), QS should have no problems lasting long enough. As of 2Q24, QS has total cash and cash equivalents of ~$940 million and no debt (operating lease liabilities are $55.6 million, but not meaningful). Since the deal with PowerCo was announced in July, it means that $264 million is not included in the 2Q24 balance sheet. Total cash and cash equivalents should be around $1.2 billion. Current EBITDA guidance calls for FY24 adj EBITDA (excluding SBC) to be between -$250 and -$300 million and CAPEX for FY24 to be between $70 and $120 million, but with the expectation that it will come at the lower end of the range. This sums up to around ~$320 million. With the current cash balance, QS should be able to last close to 4 years before it needs to raise capital (call it mid-2028). Readers should also be reminded that this deal makes QS less OPEX and CAPEX intensive, so the cash burn rate should taper down gradually. Valuation QS Given that QS is still in the R&D phase, forecasting the business is tough given the lack of historical precedent. Rather than plucking numbers from the sky and inputting them into Excel, I think a better way is to benchmark current performance against management's initial expectations. In the SPAC presentation, the expectation is for QS to start generating revenue in FY24 and turn EBITDA positive in FY27. As of 2Q24, QS is still not generating any revenue, and I think it's safe to say this is not going to be the year as Cobra is only expected to start high-volume production in FY25. This means that QS is about 2 years behind expectations. May Investing Ideas Assuming QS only achieves its ~$1.6 billion EBITDA target in 2030 and the stock trades at ~12x forward EBITDA (this is S&P 10-year average multiple), Given that QS is still growing, it should minimally trade at market level. QS is worth an enterprise value of ~$19.5 billion, or FY30 share price of ~$39. Note that the $50 million won't swing the target price by a lot, but logically, it should go down from here since FCF after project financing only turns positive in the same year QS generates $1.6 billion of EBITDA. Risk There are no guarantees that QS will be able to deliver the product successfully as expected. If the product doesn't work out as well as it should, the entire investment thesis for QS will be challenged, and the equity value will take a strong hit. This is the biggest risk for QS, and it's a risk that one has to take when investing in such a business. Conclusion  I give a buy rating for QS as the upside is attractive. There is promising progress made on multiple fronts, including R&D, commercialization, and manufacturing, which gives confidence that QS can start to generate revenue soon. The recent licensing deal with PowerCo has also strengthened the company's balance sheet and reduced its CAPEX intensity. The risk is that QS fails to deliver, and this is something that investors must be comfortable with when investing in the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332781139509552,"gmtCreate":1722271448416,"gmtModify":1722271562250,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a> 高盛都给出卖出评级，那些营销号还使劲的无脑吹。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a> 高盛都给出卖出评级，那些营销号还使劲的无脑吹。","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$ 高盛都给出卖出评级，那些营销号还使劲的无脑吹。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332781139509552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544572238091832","authorId":"3544572238091832","name":"zeroxu666","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3544572238091832","idStr":"3544572238091832"},"content":"咨询个问题，高盛评级有没有地方统一看？","text":"咨询个问题，高盛评级有没有地方统一看？","html":"咨询个问题，高盛评级有没有地方统一看？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332664457081104,"gmtCreate":1722223696117,"gmtModify":1722223697953,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>散户都要擦亮眼睛，看清楚再做决定，不要被营销号给欺骗。 你是被套了吧，这家公司技术根本就不做实，不知道你有没有去看他们的技术展会，他们的技术完全无法达到量产，其次如果这个技术长时间无法进入市场，你觉得byd和宁德这种公司在两年内能不能出现量产固态，毕竟宁德已经实现半固态量产，但是这家公司实现量产还需要3年，实际应用和汽车迭代有需要一年。新能源市场到那个时候已经开始实现饱和。这个股票等于买了一张为期三年的彩票，短期没有任何的机遇，不段在以投资融资的消息进行股票拉升，随即立即下降回调。完完全全在收割散户，每天都是极低的换手率，但是涨幅波动又非常的大。明眼人都知道这个股票存在问题，你这篇文章说的这么漂亮，不就是希望散户再进去当韭菜，我就想说大实话，希望大家都擦亮眼睛，有自己的见解，别被营销号给洗脑欺骗。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>散户都要擦亮眼睛，看清楚再做决定，不要被营销号给欺骗。 你是被套了吧，这家公司技术根本就不做实，不知道你有没有去看他们的技术展会，他们的技术完全无法达到量产，其次如果这个技术长时间无法进入市场，你觉得byd和宁德这种公司在两年内能不能出现量产固态，毕竟宁德已经实现半固态量产，但是这家公司实现量产还需要3年，实际应用和汽车迭代有需要一年。新能源市场到那个时候已经开始实现饱和。这个股票等于买了一张为期三年的彩票，短期没有任何的机遇，不段在以投资融资的消息进行股票拉升，随即立即下降回调。完完全全在收割散户，每天都是极低的换手率，但是涨幅波动又非常的大。明眼人都知道这个股票存在问题，你这篇文章说的这么漂亮，不就是希望散户再进去当韭菜，我就想说大实话，希望大家都擦亮眼睛，有自己的见解，别被营销号给洗脑欺骗。","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$散户都要擦亮眼睛，看清楚再做决定，不要被营销号给欺骗。 你是被套了吧，这家公司技术根本就不做实，不知道你有没有去看他们的技术展会，他们的技术完全无法达到量产，其次如果这个技术长时间无法进入市场，你觉得byd和宁德这种公司在两年内能不能出现量产固态，毕竟宁德已经实现半固态量产，但是这家公司实现量产还需要3年，实际应用和汽车迭代有需要一年。新能源市场到那个时候已经开始实现饱和。这个股票等于买了一张为期三年的彩票，短期没有任何的机遇，不段在以投资融资的消息进行股票拉升，随即立即下降回调。完完全全在收割散户，每天都是极低的换手率，但是涨幅波动又非常的大。明眼人都知道这个股票存在问题，你这篇文章说的这么漂亮，不就是希望散户再进去当韭菜，我就想说大实话，希望大家都擦亮眼睛，有自己的见解，别被营销号给洗脑欺骗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332664457081104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464324161064700","authorId":"3464324161064700","name":"花式","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/608828e79384008b6eef411c40b5bfe1","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3464324161064700","idStr":"3464324161064700"},"content":"感谢你的勇敢真实发言。我之前就被骗过一次，现在学聪明涨了，我就赶紧跑","text":"感谢你的勇敢真实发言。我之前就被骗过一次，现在学聪明涨了，我就赶紧跑","html":"感谢你的勇敢真实发言。我之前就被骗过一次，现在学聪明涨了，我就赶紧跑"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332659493830848,"gmtCreate":1722223626539,"gmtModify":1722224121854,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你是被套了吧，这家公司技术根本就不做实，不知道你有没有去看他们的技术展会，他们的技术完全无法达到量产，其次如果这个技术长时间无法进入市场，你觉得byd和宁德这种公司在两年内能不能出现量产固态，毕竟宁德已经实现半固态量产，但是这家公司实现量产还需要3年，实际应用和汽车迭代有需要一年。新能源市场到那个时候已经开始实现饱和。这个股票等于买了一张为期三年的彩票，短期没有任何的机遇，不段在以投资融资的消息进行股票拉升，随即立即下降回调。完完全全在收割散户，每天都是极低的换手率，但是涨幅波动又非常的大。明眼人都知道这个股票存在问题，你这篇文章说的这么漂亮，不就是希望散户再进去当韭菜，我就想说大实话，希望大家都擦亮眼睛，有自己的见解，别被营销号给洗脑欺骗。","listText":"你是被套了吧，这家公司技术根本就不做实，不知道你有没有去看他们的技术展会，他们的技术完全无法达到量产，其次如果这个技术长时间无法进入市场，你觉得byd和宁德这种公司在两年内能不能出现量产固态，毕竟宁德已经实现半固态量产，但是这家公司实现量产还需要3年，实际应用和汽车迭代有需要一年。新能源市场到那个时候已经开始实现饱和。这个股票等于买了一张为期三年的彩票，短期没有任何的机遇，不段在以投资融资的消息进行股票拉升，随即立即下降回调。完完全全在收割散户，每天都是极低的换手率，但是涨幅波动又非常的大。明眼人都知道这个股票存在问题，你这篇文章说的这么漂亮，不就是希望散户再进去当韭菜，我就想说大实话，希望大家都擦亮眼睛，有自己的见解，别被营销号给洗脑欺骗。","text":"你是被套了吧，这家公司技术根本就不做实，不知道你有没有去看他们的技术展会，他们的技术完全无法达到量产，其次如果这个技术长时间无法进入市场，你觉得byd和宁德这种公司在两年内能不能出现量产固态，毕竟宁德已经实现半固态量产，但是这家公司实现量产还需要3年，实际应用和汽车迭代有需要一年。新能源市场到那个时候已经开始实现饱和。这个股票等于买了一张为期三年的彩票，短期没有任何的机遇，不段在以投资融资的消息进行股票拉升，随即立即下降回调。完完全全在收割散户，每天都是极低的换手率，但是涨幅波动又非常的大。明眼人都知道这个股票存在问题，你这篇文章说的这么漂亮，不就是希望散户再进去当韭菜，我就想说大实话，希望大家都擦亮眼睛，有自己的见解，别被营销号给洗脑欺骗。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cbaffd63f716905215bbf136a848d31","width":"1179","height":"2982"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332659493830848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331345618735200,"gmtCreate":1721901832286,"gmtModify":1721901833930,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529239129680751","idStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说的好，大快人[爱心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"说的好，大快人[爱心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"说的好，大快人[爱心] [强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331345618735200","repostId":"1121945470","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121945470","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1721879277,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121945470?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-25 11:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Quantumscape二季度财报令人失望，全年展望也无亮点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121945470","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"投资者对公司实现盈利的能力表示担忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三盘后，锂电池开发商 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">Quantumscape Corp.</a> 发布Q2财报，公司业绩令人失望，且全年剩余时间的展望也不及预期。</p><p>财报显示，QuantumScape第二季度按美国通用会计准则（GAAP）计算的每股亏损为0.25美元，较分析师预期低0.02美元。此次公告中，公司未披露具体营收及其他财务指标。</p><p>展望未来，QuantumScape对2024年全年进行了业绩预测，预计调整后EBITDA亏损将在2.5亿至3亿美元之间。同时，公司还预计其资本支出将位于此前指导范围7,000万至1.2亿美元的较低端。</p><p>此次盈利未达预期及全年亏损与高额资本支出指引的持续疲软，对投资者情绪造成了沉重打击，进而导致QuantumScape股价大幅跳水。</p><p>投资者可能对公司在近期内实现盈利和产生正向现金流的能力表示担忧，特别是在固态电池技术研发与商业化所需大量投资的背景下</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quantumscape二季度财报令人失望，全年展望也无亮点</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuantumscape二季度财报令人失望，全年展望也无亮点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-25 11:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三盘后，锂电池开发商 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">Quantumscape Corp.</a> 发布Q2财报，公司业绩令人失望，且全年剩余时间的展望也不及预期。</p><p>财报显示，QuantumScape第二季度按美国通用会计准则（GAAP）计算的每股亏损为0.25美元，较分析师预期低0.02美元。此次公告中，公司未披露具体营收及其他财务指标。</p><p>展望未来，QuantumScape对2024年全年进行了业绩预测，预计调整后EBITDA亏损将在2.5亿至3亿美元之间。同时，公司还预计其资本支出将位于此前指导范围7,000万至1.2亿美元的较低端。</p><p>此次盈利未达预期及全年亏损与高额资本支出指引的持续疲软，对投资者情绪造成了沉重打击，进而导致QuantumScape股价大幅跳水。</p><p>投资者可能对公司在近期内实现盈利和产生正向现金流的能力表示担忧，特别是在固态电池技术研发与商业化所需大量投资的背景下</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2aa846cc1babe0cf0ee45a6d345bfda","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121945470","content_text":"周三盘后，锂电池开发商 Quantumscape Corp. 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31个内部人抛售股票而且还不回购，这不就是跑路的前奏吗？CEO都带头抛售了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333770010943544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3569415942717509","authorId":"3569415942717509","name":"虎头虎脑也","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c91f89d6dee0c3aa1b8d8d33399d6c53","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569415942717509","authorIdStr":"3569415942717509"},"content":"三哥在全世界都很成功，三哥和老中比，应该比老中强，首先老中内卷，其次洗脑太严重。","text":"三哥在全世界都很成功，三哥和老中比，应该比老中强，首先老中内卷，其次洗脑太严重。","html":"三哥在全世界都很成功，三哥和老中比，应该比老中强，首先老中内卷，其次洗脑太严重。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332781139509552,"gmtCreate":1722271448416,"gmtModify":1722271562250,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a> 高盛都给出卖出评级，那些营销号还使劲的无脑吹。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a> 高盛都给出卖出评级，那些营销号还使劲的无脑吹。","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$ 高盛都给出卖出评级，那些营销号还使劲的无脑吹。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332781139509552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544572238091832","authorId":"3544572238091832","name":"zeroxu666","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544572238091832","authorIdStr":"3544572238091832"},"content":"咨询个问题，高盛评级有没有地方统一看？","text":"咨询个问题，高盛评级有没有地方统一看？","html":"咨询个问题，高盛评级有没有地方统一看？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":284235325751472,"gmtCreate":1710424282754,"gmtModify":1710424283743,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 快跑啊，崩盘了，华尔街出事了！！！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 快跑啊，崩盘了，华尔街出事了！！！","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 快跑啊，崩盘了，华尔街出事了！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284235325751472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3553256311875125","authorIdStr":"3553256311875125"},"content":"哪有？纳斯达克还微涨呢","text":"哪有？纳斯达克还微涨呢","html":"哪有？纳斯达克还微涨呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336560743522448,"gmtCreate":1723176898711,"gmtModify":1723176901648,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT\">$GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT\">$GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$GILD 20241018 70.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a95e2b3fd7ef1916893a332a599cef","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336560743522448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":333766197616696,"gmtCreate":1722519028670,"gmtModify":1722519031089,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"31个内部人员都在抛售并且不会回购，不知道它上涨空间在哪[笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; 真的搞笑，纯杀猪盘股票。","listText":"31个内部人员都在抛售并且不会回购，不知道它上涨空间在哪[笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; 真的搞笑，纯杀猪盘股票。","text":"31个内部人员都在抛售并且不会回购，不知道它上涨空间在哪[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 真的搞笑，纯杀猪盘股票。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333766197616696","repostId":"2456483390","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2456483390","pubTimestamp":1722510513,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2456483390?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-01 19:08","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"QuantumScape Corporation: Attractive Upside For Patient Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456483390","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.</li><li>QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue yet but making progress in R&amp;D and manufacturing.</li><li>Positive outlook on the recent licensing deal with PowerCo, strengthening the balance sheet, and reducing CAPEX intensity.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"4212px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"5616px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Hiroshi Watanabe</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Investment overview</h2> <p>I give a buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation (<span>NYSE:QS</span>), as I see attractive upside in the stock if QS delivers its product as expected. So far, QS is making good progress on all fronts: R&amp;D, manufacturing, and commercializing. The deal with<span> PowerCo recently was also very positive, as it makes the QS balance sheet stronger and also reduces the CAPEX intensity of the business.</span></p> <h2>Business description</h2> <p>QS designs and manufactures solid-state (glass) lithium-ion batteries that are used in electric vehicles [EV]. The main value propositions are that these batteries are safer, can be charged faster, and have a higher energy density when compared to traditional batteries. As of 2Q24, QS is not making any revenue (still in R&amp;D mode) and is still in cash burn mode. 2Q24 reported an operating loss of $134 million and an EBITDA loss of -$72.5 million, excluding<span> stock-based compensation.</span></p> <p>While the business is not generating meaningful revenue and profits today, I think the potential is huge if QS can deliver on what they promised. Progress so far has been promising, and I think patient investors will be able to reap the reward in due time.</p> <h2>Positive on licensing deal</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910710796268.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Earlier in June (11th July), QS announced a licensing deal with PowerCo (a subsidiary of Volkswagen). I am very positive about this on two fronts. Firstly, the deal includes a royalty pre-payment of $130 million and releases funds previously earmarked by QS for a JV. This eases the burden on the QS balance sheet and heavily extends the cash runway (more on this below). Secondly, it makes the QS operating model much more \"asset-light\", which means a high free cash flow profile over time as there are fewer capex needs and manufacturing costs.</p> <h2>R&amp;D and manufacturing process on track</h2> <p>The most important part of the QS stock narrative is how well the R&amp;D and manufacturing processes are doing, and encouragingly, they seem to be well on track.</p> <p>On R&amp;D and commercial traction, QS commented that customer engagements remain robust and that it has shipped Alpha-2 prototypes to multiple customers in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. This is promising because it lends credence to the product quality and reliability of the QS product, especially since it is still in prototype. One of my concerns with this battery technology (for EVs) is safety, especially in terms of battery fires. Positively, QS has shown good test results so far. Specifically, it was highlighted that the prototype cell testing demonstrated thermal stability up to 300 degrees Celsius. This is <em>very good</em> when considering that conventional high-energy lithium-ion cells burst into flames between 175 and 180 degrees.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910713995628.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If this works out well, it sets up a positive outlook for QS's upcoming QSE-5 cell (this is the main commercial opportunity). I am not expecting any major hiccups here, as the deal with PowerCo includes creating a dedicated and co-located team of experts from both companies that will collaborate to industrialize the battery technology.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-1722491071550268.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>On the manufacturing side, things are promising too. Progress so far certainly gives more confidence in Cobra (QS's next-gen process to mass produce QSE-5). The only trackable metric/progress now is the ramp up in Raptor (you can think of this as the lite version of Cobra). If Raptor progresses well, it should also mean that Cobra will work out well too. I take comfort in knowing that QS has finished ramping up on Raptor and that it is able to allocate more resources to the development of Cobra. This tells us two things. Firstly, results from Raptor must have been promising (QS uses Raptor as a testbed for Cobra). Secondly, QS is one step closer to meeting its 2025 target by ramping up Cobra for mass production.</p> <p>The upcoming key milestone to track is whether Raptor can successfully produce a B-sample product by the end of 2024. This will send a strong message to the market that Cobra is likely to work out well. Note that Cobra is a core component of the tech platform that PowerCo will be licensing.</p> <h2>Balance sheet enough capacity to sustain investments</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910711868503.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The big question mark is whether QS has sufficient cash to last until it starts generating meaningful revenue. Based on my math (and also management's estimates), QS should have no problems lasting long enough. As of 2Q24, QS has total cash and cash equivalents of ~$940 million and no debt (operating lease liabilities are $55.6 million, but not meaningful). Since the deal with PowerCo was announced in July, it means that $264 million is not included in the 2Q24 balance sheet. Total cash and cash equivalents should be around $1.2 billion.</p> <p>Current EBITDA guidance calls for FY24 adj EBITDA (excluding SBC) to be between -$250 and -$300 million and CAPEX for FY24 to be between $70 and $120 million, but with the expectation that it will come at the lower end of the range. This sums up to around ~$320 million. With the current cash balance, QS should be able to last close to 4 years before it needs to raise capital (call it mid-2028). Readers should also be reminded that this deal makes QS less OPEX and CAPEX intensive, so the cash burn rate should taper down gradually.</p> <h2>Valuation</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910714591231.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>QS</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Given that QS is still in the R&amp;D phase, forecasting the business is tough given the lack of historical precedent. Rather than plucking numbers from the sky and inputting them into Excel, I think a better way is to benchmark current performance against management's initial expectations. In the SPAC presentation, the expectation is for QS to start generating revenue in FY24 and turn EBITDA positive in FY27. As of 2Q24, QS is still not generating any revenue, and I think it's safe to say this is not going to be the year as Cobra is only expected to start high-volume production in FY25. This means that QS is about 2 years behind expectations.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/1/59531952-17224910711423948.png\"/></span></picture><figcaption><p>May Investing Ideas</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Assuming QS only achieves its ~$1.6 billion EBITDA target in 2030 and the stock trades at ~12x forward EBITDA (this is S&amp;P 10-year average multiple), Given that QS is still growing, it should minimally trade at market level. QS is worth an enterprise value of ~$19.5 billion, or FY30 share price of ~$39. Note that the $50 million won't swing the target price by a lot, but logically, it should go down from here since FCF after project financing only turns positive in the same year QS generates $1.6 billion of EBITDA.</p> <h2>Risk</h2> <p>There are no guarantees that QS will be able to deliver the product successfully as expected. If the product doesn't work out as well as it should, the entire investment thesis for QS will be challenged, and the equity value will take a strong hit. This is the biggest risk for QS, and it's a risk that one has to take when investing in such a business.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <div></div> <p>I give a buy rating for QS as the upside is attractive. There is promising progress made on multiple fronts, including R&amp;D, commercialization, and manufacturing, which gives confidence that QS can start to generate revenue soon. The recent licensing deal with PowerCo has also strengthened the company's balance sheet and reduced its CAPEX intensity. The risk is that QS fails to deliver, and this is something that investors must be comfortable with when investing in the stock.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>QuantumScape Corporation: Attractive Upside For Patient Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuantumScape Corporation: Attractive Upside For Patient Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-01 19:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4708988-quantumscape-corporation-attractive-upside-for-patient-investors><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4708988-quantumscape-corporation-attractive-upside-for-patient-investors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1178244881/image_1178244881.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4540":"固态电池","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","ISBC":"投资者银行","BK4545":"锂电池","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4708988-quantumscape-corporation-attractive-upside-for-patient-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2456483390","content_text":"Buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation with attractive upside potential if product delivery is successful.QS designs and manufactures solid-state lithium-ion batteries for EVs, not generating revenue yet but making progress in R&D and manufacturing.Positive outlook on the recent licensing deal with PowerCo, strengthening the balance sheet, and reducing CAPEX intensity.Hiroshi Watanabe Investment overview I give a buy rating for QuantumScape Corporation (NYSE:QS), as I see attractive upside in the stock if QS delivers its product as expected. So far, QS is making good progress on all fronts: R&D, manufacturing, and commercializing. The deal with PowerCo recently was also very positive, as it makes the QS balance sheet stronger and also reduces the CAPEX intensity of the business. Business description QS designs and manufactures solid-state (glass) lithium-ion batteries that are used in electric vehicles [EV]. The main value propositions are that these batteries are safer, can be charged faster, and have a higher energy density when compared to traditional batteries. As of 2Q24, QS is not making any revenue (still in R&D mode) and is still in cash burn mode. 2Q24 reported an operating loss of $134 million and an EBITDA loss of -$72.5 million, excluding stock-based compensation. While the business is not generating meaningful revenue and profits today, I think the potential is huge if QS can deliver on what they promised. Progress so far has been promising, and I think patient investors will be able to reap the reward in due time. Positive on licensing deal QS Earlier in June (11th July), QS announced a licensing deal with PowerCo (a subsidiary of Volkswagen). I am very positive about this on two fronts. Firstly, the deal includes a royalty pre-payment of $130 million and releases funds previously earmarked by QS for a JV. This eases the burden on the QS balance sheet and heavily extends the cash runway (more on this below). Secondly, it makes the QS operating model much more \"asset-light\", which means a high free cash flow profile over time as there are fewer capex needs and manufacturing costs. R&D and manufacturing process on track The most important part of the QS stock narrative is how well the R&D and manufacturing processes are doing, and encouragingly, they seem to be well on track. On R&D and commercial traction, QS commented that customer engagements remain robust and that it has shipped Alpha-2 prototypes to multiple customers in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors. This is promising because it lends credence to the product quality and reliability of the QS product, especially since it is still in prototype. One of my concerns with this battery technology (for EVs) is safety, especially in terms of battery fires. Positively, QS has shown good test results so far. Specifically, it was highlighted that the prototype cell testing demonstrated thermal stability up to 300 degrees Celsius. This is very good when considering that conventional high-energy lithium-ion cells burst into flames between 175 and 180 degrees. QS If this works out well, it sets up a positive outlook for QS's upcoming QSE-5 cell (this is the main commercial opportunity). I am not expecting any major hiccups here, as the deal with PowerCo includes creating a dedicated and co-located team of experts from both companies that will collaborate to industrialize the battery technology. QS On the manufacturing side, things are promising too. Progress so far certainly gives more confidence in Cobra (QS's next-gen process to mass produce QSE-5). The only trackable metric/progress now is the ramp up in Raptor (you can think of this as the lite version of Cobra). If Raptor progresses well, it should also mean that Cobra will work out well too. I take comfort in knowing that QS has finished ramping up on Raptor and that it is able to allocate more resources to the development of Cobra. This tells us two things. Firstly, results from Raptor must have been promising (QS uses Raptor as a testbed for Cobra). Secondly, QS is one step closer to meeting its 2025 target by ramping up Cobra for mass production. The upcoming key milestone to track is whether Raptor can successfully produce a B-sample product by the end of 2024. This will send a strong message to the market that Cobra is likely to work out well. Note that Cobra is a core component of the tech platform that PowerCo will be licensing. Balance sheet enough capacity to sustain investments QS The big question mark is whether QS has sufficient cash to last until it starts generating meaningful revenue. Based on my math (and also management's estimates), QS should have no problems lasting long enough. As of 2Q24, QS has total cash and cash equivalents of ~$940 million and no debt (operating lease liabilities are $55.6 million, but not meaningful). Since the deal with PowerCo was announced in July, it means that $264 million is not included in the 2Q24 balance sheet. Total cash and cash equivalents should be around $1.2 billion. Current EBITDA guidance calls for FY24 adj EBITDA (excluding SBC) to be between -$250 and -$300 million and CAPEX for FY24 to be between $70 and $120 million, but with the expectation that it will come at the lower end of the range. This sums up to around ~$320 million. With the current cash balance, QS should be able to last close to 4 years before it needs to raise capital (call it mid-2028). Readers should also be reminded that this deal makes QS less OPEX and CAPEX intensive, so the cash burn rate should taper down gradually. Valuation QS Given that QS is still in the R&D phase, forecasting the business is tough given the lack of historical precedent. Rather than plucking numbers from the sky and inputting them into Excel, I think a better way is to benchmark current performance against management's initial expectations. In the SPAC presentation, the expectation is for QS to start generating revenue in FY24 and turn EBITDA positive in FY27. As of 2Q24, QS is still not generating any revenue, and I think it's safe to say this is not going to be the year as Cobra is only expected to start high-volume production in FY25. This means that QS is about 2 years behind expectations. May Investing Ideas Assuming QS only achieves its ~$1.6 billion EBITDA target in 2030 and the stock trades at ~12x forward EBITDA (this is S&P 10-year average multiple), Given that QS is still growing, it should minimally trade at market level. QS is worth an enterprise value of ~$19.5 billion, or FY30 share price of ~$39. Note that the $50 million won't swing the target price by a lot, but logically, it should go down from here since FCF after project financing only turns positive in the same year QS generates $1.6 billion of EBITDA. Risk There are no guarantees that QS will be able to deliver the product successfully as expected. If the product doesn't work out as well as it should, the entire investment thesis for QS will be challenged, and the equity value will take a strong hit. This is the biggest risk for QS, and it's a risk that one has to take when investing in such a business. Conclusion  I give a buy rating for QS as the upside is attractive. There is promising progress made on multiple fronts, including R&D, commercialization, and manufacturing, which gives confidence that QS can start to generate revenue soon. The recent licensing deal with PowerCo has also strengthened the company's balance sheet and reduced its CAPEX intensity. The risk is that QS fails to deliver, and this is something that investors must be comfortable with when investing in the stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317839666593840,"gmtCreate":1718636114720,"gmtModify":1718636153525,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"title":"竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王","htmlText":"查看详情： <a href=\"https://www.atigrvibe.com/activity/market/2024/trading-guess?inviteId=XETFLQEA&amp;utm_medium=tiger_community&amp;platform=iOS&amp;shareID=9edb7d995fa8a94f8a24b340ebab5a7e&amp;invite=P9MNQ&amp;lang=zh_CN\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情： <a 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此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f22c491ee8ae08f0d36ded0795f1fe33"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317839666593840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315775356768336,"gmtCreate":1718126062932,"gmtModify":1718126601116,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还可以吧","listText":"还可以吧","text":"还可以吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a1c6b6d42b414122d4d7ca4a1c0ae5","width":"981","height":"1577"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315775356768336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315781234667832,"gmtCreate":1718125863598,"gmtModify":1718126598089,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还行吧","listText":"还行吧","text":"还行吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d13c68f870295f34d84d7216aa61d07","width":"981","height":"1577"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315781234667832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314063562588400,"gmtCreate":1717695896650,"gmtModify":1717695937360,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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还可以","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d84813489b5e313b90ecba6decc11a7","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314063562588400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":284294263890040,"gmtCreate":1710438554806,"gmtModify":1710438556501,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不可能到这个价","listText":"不可能到这个价","text":"不可能到这个价","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284294263890040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":259978548220096,"gmtCreate":1704481511010,"gmtModify":1704490892627,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以睡个安稳觉[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"可以睡个安稳觉[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"可以睡个安稳觉[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa81bf52d7bf38a0e43da8a0ccd5077","width":"981","height":"1577"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/259978548220096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":267323727425584,"gmtCreate":1706288997191,"gmtModify":1706302948037,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a> 李斌是真牛啊，这种情况下又拉到了大投资，造车平平，拉投资有一手啊[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a> 李斌是真牛啊，这种情况下又拉到了大投资，造车平平，拉投资有一手啊[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 李斌是真牛啊，这种情况下又拉到了大投资，造车平平，拉投资有一手啊[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267323727425584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"fincc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"content":"这个市值 10亿美金就可以占10%的股份，李斌的股份已经稀释到百分之几了，再融资都变打工人了。这个价位融资就是卖血。","text":"这个市值 10亿美金就可以占10%的股份，李斌的股份已经稀释到百分之几了，再融资都变打工人了。这个价位融资就是卖血。","html":"这个市值 10亿美金就可以占10%的股份，李斌的股份已经稀释到百分之几了，再融资都变打工人了。这个价位融资就是卖血。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331345618735200,"gmtCreate":1721901832286,"gmtModify":1721901833930,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说的好，大快人[爱心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"说的好，大快人[爱心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"说的好，大快人[爱心] [强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331345618735200","repostId":"1121945470","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121945470","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1721879277,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121945470?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-25 11:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Quantumscape二季度财报令人失望，全年展望也无亮点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121945470","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"投资者对公司实现盈利的能力表示担忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三盘后，锂电池开发商 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">Quantumscape Corp.</a> 发布Q2财报，公司业绩令人失望，且全年剩余时间的展望也不及预期。</p><p>财报显示，QuantumScape第二季度按美国通用会计准则（GAAP）计算的每股亏损为0.25美元，较分析师预期低0.02美元。此次公告中，公司未披露具体营收及其他财务指标。</p><p>展望未来，QuantumScape对2024年全年进行了业绩预测，预计调整后EBITDA亏损将在2.5亿至3亿美元之间。同时，公司还预计其资本支出将位于此前指导范围7,000万至1.2亿美元的较低端。</p><p>此次盈利未达预期及全年亏损与高额资本支出指引的持续疲软，对投资者情绪造成了沉重打击，进而导致QuantumScape股价大幅跳水。</p><p>投资者可能对公司在近期内实现盈利和产生正向现金流的能力表示担忧，特别是在固态电池技术研发与商业化所需大量投资的背景下</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quantumscape二季度财报令人失望，全年展望也无亮点</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuantumscape二季度财报令人失望，全年展望也无亮点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-07-25 11:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三盘后，锂电池开发商 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">Quantumscape Corp.</a> 发布Q2财报，公司业绩令人失望，且全年剩余时间的展望也不及预期。</p><p>财报显示，QuantumScape第二季度按美国通用会计准则（GAAP）计算的每股亏损为0.25美元，较分析师预期低0.02美元。此次公告中，公司未披露具体营收及其他财务指标。</p><p>展望未来，QuantumScape对2024年全年进行了业绩预测，预计调整后EBITDA亏损将在2.5亿至3亿美元之间。同时，公司还预计其资本支出将位于此前指导范围7,000万至1.2亿美元的较低端。</p><p>此次盈利未达预期及全年亏损与高额资本支出指引的持续疲软，对投资者情绪造成了沉重打击，进而导致QuantumScape股价大幅跳水。</p><p>投资者可能对公司在近期内实现盈利和产生正向现金流的能力表示担忧，特别是在固态电池技术研发与商业化所需大量投资的背景下</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2aa846cc1babe0cf0ee45a6d345bfda","relate_stocks":{"QS":"Quantumscape Corp."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121945470","content_text":"周三盘后，锂电池开发商 Quantumscape Corp. 发布Q2财报，公司业绩令人失望，且全年剩余时间的展望也不及预期。财报显示，QuantumScape第二季度按美国通用会计准则（GAAP）计算的每股亏损为0.25美元，较分析师预期低0.02美元。此次公告中，公司未披露具体营收及其他财务指标。展望未来，QuantumScape对2024年全年进行了业绩预测，预计调整后EBITDA亏损将在2.5亿至3亿美元之间。同时，公司还预计其资本支出将位于此前指导范围7,000万至1.2亿美元的较低端。此次盈利未达预期及全年亏损与高额资本支出指引的持续疲软，对投资者情绪造成了沉重打击，进而导致QuantumScape股价大幅跳水。投资者可能对公司在近期内实现盈利和产生正向现金流的能力表示担忧，特别是在固态电池技术研发与商业化所需大量投资的背景下","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332664457081104,"gmtCreate":1722223696117,"gmtModify":1722223697953,"author":{"id":"3529239129680751","authorId":"3529239129680751","name":"游骞桦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efcaf2ee8cef60a737f25894d39f43f3","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3529239129680751","authorIdStr":"3529239129680751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>散户都要擦亮眼睛，看清楚再做决定，不要被营销号给欺骗。 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