韭菜北京的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-09-07

600美元我投了！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-01

$叮咚(DDL)$China's Uber. come on!

2021-07-01

$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴选择在美股上市可能不是个好主意，美国资本更愿意扶持uber。而大部分中国散户想买买不了

2021-07-01

$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴这尴尬了

2021-07-01

$滴滴(DIDI)$凉凉

2021-07-01

$滴滴(DIDI)$可惜没有入金，估计很快就爬到20以上了

2021-06-30

$滴滴(DIDI)$盲猜今天能涨到23美元

2021-06-30

$滴滴(DIDI)$涨50%都是合理的，滴滴的股价定的低就是保证不会破发

2021-06-30

对标Uber，滴滴估值上升空间很大

抱歉，原内容已删除

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world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1630932089,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170118110?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Didi's ride hailing rival Cao Cao raises $600 mln to expand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170118110","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Geely’s Cao Cao Mobility said on Monday that it had raised 3.8 billion y","content":"<p>BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Geely’s Cao Cao Mobility said on Monday that it had raised 3.8 billion yuan ($589 million) to fund expansion, amid competition to grab market share from China’s embattled ride hailing leader Didi Global Inc.</p>\n<p>Cao Cao, which was launched in 2015, said in a statement it will use the money to develop technology, expand its business, and develop its own purpose-built vehicles for ride hailing.</p>\n<p>Chinese regulators are urging ride hailing companies to hire qualified drivers to comply with relevant rules and protect data security.</p>\n<p>Cao Cao operates in 62 cities and its monthly active users reached 10 million in July, up from 5.67 million last year.</p>\n<p>Its name is based on that of a famous ancient Chinese general nicknamed Jili, which are the same characters as Geely written in Mandarin.</p>\n<p>Regulators have frequently held talks with the ride hailing industry, which offers tens of millions of rides a day in China, on topics including driver salaries and safety. ($1 = 6.4560 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Brenda Goh; Editing by Alexander Smith)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi's ride hailing rival Cao Cao raises $600 mln to expand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi's ride hailing rival Cao Cao raises $600 mln to expand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-06 20:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Geely’s Cao Cao Mobility said on Monday that it had raised 3.8 billion yuan ($589 million) to fund expansion, amid competition to grab market share from China’s embattled ride hailing leader Didi Global Inc.</p>\n<p>Cao Cao, which was launched in 2015, said in a statement it will use the money to develop technology, expand its business, and develop its own purpose-built vehicles for ride hailing.</p>\n<p>Chinese regulators are urging ride hailing companies to hire qualified drivers to comply with relevant rules and protect data security.</p>\n<p>Cao Cao operates in 62 cities and its monthly active users reached 10 million in July, up from 5.67 million last year.</p>\n<p>Its name is based on that of a famous ancient Chinese general nicknamed Jili, which are the same characters as Geely written in Mandarin.</p>\n<p>Regulators have frequently held talks with the ride hailing industry, which offers tens of millions of rides a day in China, on topics including driver salaries and safety. ($1 = 6.4560 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Brenda Goh; Editing by Alexander Smith)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170118110","content_text":"BEIJING, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Geely’s Cao Cao Mobility said on Monday that it had raised 3.8 billion yuan ($589 million) to fund expansion, amid competition to grab market share from China’s embattled ride hailing leader Didi Global Inc.\nCao Cao, which was launched in 2015, said in a statement it will use the money to develop technology, expand its business, and develop its own purpose-built vehicles for ride hailing.\nChinese regulators are urging ride hailing companies to hire qualified drivers to comply with relevant rules and protect data security.\nCao Cao operates in 62 cities and its monthly active users reached 10 million in July, up from 5.67 million last year.\nIts name is based on that of a famous ancient Chinese general nicknamed Jili, which are the same characters as Geely written in Mandarin.\nRegulators have frequently held talks with the ride hailing industry, which offers tens of millions of rides a day in China, on topics including driver salaries and safety. ($1 = 6.4560 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Yilei Sun and Brenda Goh; Editing by Alexander Smith)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151850433,"gmtCreate":1625072981322,"gmtModify":1625104340961,"author":{"id":"3526613484322681","authorId":"3526613484322681","name":"韭菜北京","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>可惜没有入金，估计很快就爬到20以上了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>可惜没有入金，估计很快就爬到20以上了","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$可惜没有入金，估计很快就爬到20以上了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151850433","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151925872,"gmtCreate":1625062164096,"gmtModify":1625062164096,"author":{"id":"3526613484322681","authorId":"3526613484322681","name":"韭菜北京","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对标Uber，滴滴估值上升空间很大","listText":"对标Uber，滴滴估值上升空间很大","text":"对标Uber，滴滴估值上升空间很大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151925872","repostId":"1130319964","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130319964","pubTimestamp":1625058797,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130319964?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 21:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"估值或超700亿美元，现在的滴滴到底贵不贵？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130319964","media":"腾讯网 ","summary":"滴滴今晚就要敲钟了。\n就在美东时间周二美股盘后，滴滴最终确定其美国IPO定价为每份ADS 14美元，估值达670亿美元，而完全稀释后的估值（通常包括限制性股票单位）甚至可能超过700亿美元，另有报道说","content":"<p>滴滴今晚就要敲钟了。</p>\n<p>就在美东时间周二美股盘后，滴滴最终确定其美国IPO定价为每份ADS 14美元，估值达670亿美元，而完全稀释后的估值（通常包括限制性股票单位）甚至可能超过700亿美元，另有报道说滴滴可能还会扩大其IPO的规模。这无疑是今年美股最大的IPO之一。</p>\n<p>此前，根据滴滴向SEC提交的文件，IPO的定价区间曾锁定在每ADS13-14美元。但自递交招股书以来，滴滴获得了10倍超额认购，提前超额完成原计划40亿美元的募资目标，足见市场的热捧。</p>\n<p>今天，我们从三个角度出发，再来看看滴滴这个“熟悉的陌生人”——</p>\n<p><b>本文聚焦</b></p>\n<p><b>Part 1：一度传出挂牌港交所，为何最后舍近求远赴美上市？</b></p>\n<p><b>Part 2：一级市场融了200亿，滴滴主要业务到底赚钱了没？</b></p>\n<p><b>Part 3：和Uber相比，滴滴究竟贵不贵？</b></p>\n<p>PART1</p>\n<p>为什么舍近求远赴美上市？</p>\n<p>据传，此前滴滴管理层一度准备在香港挂牌，但最终还是选择了在美国IPO。</p>\n<p>为什么舍近求远？市场主要有如下猜测——</p>\n<p>有对标，更容易讲故事</p>\n<p>珠玉在前，美国市场目前已有Uber和Lyft等网约车公司上市，可以轻松对标，降低滴滴向投资者游说其商业模式的难度，而香港市场可能没有这样的土壤。</p>\n<p>美股或愿意给共享出行更高估值</p>\n<p>截至北京时间6月30日，Uber的总市值为953.3亿美元，这给滴滴的定价提供了一剂强心针。市场曾一度认为，业务布局更为多元化的滴滴，或许也能把估值定在1000亿美元附近。即便目前看来不及预期，但也算留出了一定往上走的空间。</p>\n<p>PART2</p>\n<p>一级市场融了200亿，滴滴主要业务赚钱了没？</p>\n<p>我们印象中的滴滴，一直是那个靠着补贴大战拿下快的、Uber的资本玩家。</p>\n<p>成立9年，滴滴仅在一级市场就融了超过200亿美元，股东方包括阿里巴巴、腾讯、软银、红杉等巨星阵容，给钱给流量，为它上阵杀敌提供了充足弹药。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f103a6842e0ead7e1284e032311800\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>滴滴的一级市场融资史。数据来源：天眼查、天风证券研究所、贝瑞研究</p>\n<p>本以为打完Uber之后，滴滴在市场上已经孤独求败，可以开始赚钱收割了。不曾想，美团、高德等跨界玩家又接连杀入打车领域，向滴滴发起了一轮又一轮的进攻（这画面怎么有点像熟悉的优酷土豆？）。</p>\n<p>我们不禁好奇，在这个强敌环伺的“无限战争”里，滴滴能赚钱了吗？</p>\n<p>财务上看，滴滴今年一季度已经赚钱了。据招股书，滴滴在2021年一季度已经开始扭亏为盈——2018年净亏损150亿元、2019年净亏损97亿元、2020年净亏损105亿元，而2021年第一季度显示利润为54.85亿元，成功翻正。</p>\n<p>但净利率翻正可能是个“并不光彩”，更像是上市前完成的突击检查。</p>\n<p>据晚点LatePost报道，今年一季度滴滴拆分了多项业务，已经融资成功的有橙心优选、滴滴货运、滴滴自动驾驶业务、青桔单车等。这些公司估值增加的部分，按比例构成了滴滴账面投资收益，从而使得后者在一季度扭亏为盈、账面净利润近 55 亿元。而作为对比，业务模式比滴滴更重的京东，却多年来绑着物流仓储业务，即便后者今年独立上市了，业绩依旧跟京东集团并表。</p>\n<p>不过有一说一，毕竟是持续投入、高补贴的科技行业，不能因为净利润就否认滴滴的成绩。滴滴主营业务的盈利能力在这几年的进步，其实是显著的。</p>\n<p>就拿占了滴滴营收九成以上的中国出行业务来说，经调整EBITA利润率已在2019年率先一步翻正——2019年实现2.6%，2020年为3%，2021年一季度更是达到了 9.2%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775ec38152976e26c7dc40f9653e5afe\" tg-width=\"458\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>中国出行业务占了滴滴营收的九成。数据来源：滴滴招股书、天风证券研究所、贝瑞研究</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/663165c41238c61b0bcfeb6acc0f7289\" tg-width=\"468\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2020年滴滴核心平台运营模型。数据来源：滴滴公告、国盛证券研究所、贝瑞研究</p>\n<p>盈利的改善，很大程度上来自于降成本的成功。</p>\n<p>滴滴曾披露 2018年第四季度和2020年的网约车业务成本结构。据国盛证券测算，在乘客实际支付费用中，扣除给到司机的提成和奖励补贴后，平台的提取比例几乎没有变化——2018年第四季度平台提取12%、2020 年平台提取11.2%。</p>\n<p>而经营成本及费用则从2018年第四季度约14%，降至2020年的7.7%，可以说是硬生生挤出了盈利空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ee122653ccaa8755ddc97a4ccf2697\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：滴滴、国盛证券研究所、贝瑞研究</p>\n<p>PART3</p>\n<p>和Uber相比，滴滴究竟贵不贵？</p>\n<p>要评价滴滴贵不贵，全球共享出行第一把交椅Uber，总是个绕不过去的对标。我也将通过两种相对估值的方法，将二者进行比较。</p>\n<p>据滴滴招股书显示，截止2021年一季度，滴滴在全球拥有4.93亿的年活跃用户，2020年的GTV为2146亿人民币。（注：GTV，类似电商常说的GMV，指平台上的总成交额，更能反映主营业务的规模，但其不等于滴滴公司的收入。）</p>\n<p>相较之下，其竞争对手Uber虽然年活跃用户仅为9000万，但因为其主营市场客单价更高，GTV则反而大超滴滴，达到3700亿人民币。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55ad9a145e1ae701eab22a89cbbf599b\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：滴滴招股书、贝瑞研究</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d9ce160e89087290bcc4935f25644a3\" tg-width=\"350\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：滴滴招股书、Uber财报、36kr、贝瑞研究</p>\n<p>如果用市值/2020年GTV来计算，</p>\n<p>滴滴目前的水平约为2.1；</p>\n<p>Uber目前的水平约为1.7；</p>\n<p>可见相对交易规模来说，滴滴现在的估值水平偏高。</p>\n<p>其次，从核心业务的利润水平来说，滴滴2020全年的EBITA利润率仅为3%；而Uber虽然受疫情，打车业务盈利增速趋缓，但2020年的EBITA利润率仍达到了19%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5991a92733e449140c9bfab4f8724b\" tg-width=\"365\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：滴滴招股书、Uber财报、36kr、贝瑞研究</p>\n<p>如果用股价/2020年EBITA利润率来计算，</p>\n<p>滴滴目前的水平约为4.7；</p>\n<p>Uber目前的水平约为2.7；</p>\n<p>滴滴的估值水平远高于Uber，不过如上文分析，因为成本控制优良，滴滴的盈利能力正在不断提高，2021年的EBITA利润率已大幅提高，这一比率在未来可能将持续下降。</p>\n<p>注：以上计算中，</p>\n<p>滴滴股价按14美元计算，市值按700亿美元计算，折合人民币约为4520亿元。</p>\n<p>Uber截至北京时间6月30日，股价为50.76美元，总市值为953.3亿美元，折合人民币约为6157亿元。</p>\n<p>总的来说，仅按目前的数据静态来看，我倾向于认为滴滴的估值水平是偏高的，现在入场，存在一定的破发风险。</p>\n<p>但是，正如市场中不少分析提到，随着滴滴的打车业务在国际化和国内下沉市场的持续渗透（花小猪已经做得相当优秀），包括对车服在内的不同业务的持续投入，以及自动驾驶Robotaxi的“梦想”等，这些长期来看会让滴滴比起战线收缩的Uber（主要是打车和外卖）拥有更大的想象空间，成长性也许能让滴滴显得没那么贵。</p>\n<p>至于能否一举给滴滴套上另一个估值模型，但就是后话了。等时机成熟，我会另开一篇跟大家掰扯。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1cede4c2f2e9078446bf9737a430261\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：滴滴招股书、贝瑞研究</p>","source":"lsy1571985465872","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>估值或超700亿美元，现在的滴滴到底贵不贵？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n估值或超700亿美元，现在的滴滴到底贵不贵？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-30 21:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://new.qq.com/omn/20210630/20210630A0C3AS00.html><strong>腾讯网 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>滴滴今晚就要敲钟了。\n就在美东时间周二美股盘后，滴滴最终确定其美国IPO定价为每份ADS 14美元，估值达670亿美元，而完全稀释后的估值（通常包括限制性股票单位）甚至可能超过700亿美元，另有报道说滴滴可能还会扩大其IPO的规模。这无疑是今年美股最大的IPO之一。\n此前，根据滴滴向SEC提交的文件，IPO的定价区间曾锁定在每ADS13-14美元。但自递交招股书以来，滴滴获得了10倍超额认购，提前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210630/20210630A0C3AS00.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11610dd747cf3e6b22b2b7fb055788c2","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/20210630/20210630A0C3AS00.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130319964","content_text":"滴滴今晚就要敲钟了。\n就在美东时间周二美股盘后，滴滴最终确定其美国IPO定价为每份ADS 14美元，估值达670亿美元，而完全稀释后的估值（通常包括限制性股票单位）甚至可能超过700亿美元，另有报道说滴滴可能还会扩大其IPO的规模。这无疑是今年美股最大的IPO之一。\n此前，根据滴滴向SEC提交的文件，IPO的定价区间曾锁定在每ADS13-14美元。但自递交招股书以来，滴滴获得了10倍超额认购，提前超额完成原计划40亿美元的募资目标，足见市场的热捧。\n今天，我们从三个角度出发，再来看看滴滴这个“熟悉的陌生人”——\n本文聚焦\nPart 1：一度传出挂牌港交所，为何最后舍近求远赴美上市？\nPart 2：一级市场融了200亿，滴滴主要业务到底赚钱了没？\nPart 3：和Uber相比，滴滴究竟贵不贵？\nPART1\n为什么舍近求远赴美上市？\n据传，此前滴滴管理层一度准备在香港挂牌，但最终还是选择了在美国IPO。\n为什么舍近求远？市场主要有如下猜测——\n有对标，更容易讲故事\n珠玉在前，美国市场目前已有Uber和Lyft等网约车公司上市，可以轻松对标，降低滴滴向投资者游说其商业模式的难度，而香港市场可能没有这样的土壤。\n美股或愿意给共享出行更高估值\n截至北京时间6月30日，Uber的总市值为953.3亿美元，这给滴滴的定价提供了一剂强心针。市场曾一度认为，业务布局更为多元化的滴滴，或许也能把估值定在1000亿美元附近。即便目前看来不及预期，但也算留出了一定往上走的空间。\nPART2\n一级市场融了200亿，滴滴主要业务赚钱了没？\n我们印象中的滴滴，一直是那个靠着补贴大战拿下快的、Uber的资本玩家。\n成立9年，滴滴仅在一级市场就融了超过200亿美元，股东方包括阿里巴巴、腾讯、软银、红杉等巨星阵容，给钱给流量，为它上阵杀敌提供了充足弹药。\n\n滴滴的一级市场融资史。数据来源：天眼查、天风证券研究所、贝瑞研究\n本以为打完Uber之后，滴滴在市场上已经孤独求败，可以开始赚钱收割了。不曾想，美团、高德等跨界玩家又接连杀入打车领域，向滴滴发起了一轮又一轮的进攻（这画面怎么有点像熟悉的优酷土豆？）。\n我们不禁好奇，在这个强敌环伺的“无限战争”里，滴滴能赚钱了吗？\n财务上看，滴滴今年一季度已经赚钱了。据招股书，滴滴在2021年一季度已经开始扭亏为盈——2018年净亏损150亿元、2019年净亏损97亿元、2020年净亏损105亿元，而2021年第一季度显示利润为54.85亿元，成功翻正。\n但净利率翻正可能是个“并不光彩”，更像是上市前完成的突击检查。\n据晚点LatePost报道，今年一季度滴滴拆分了多项业务，已经融资成功的有橙心优选、滴滴货运、滴滴自动驾驶业务、青桔单车等。这些公司估值增加的部分，按比例构成了滴滴账面投资收益，从而使得后者在一季度扭亏为盈、账面净利润近 55 亿元。而作为对比，业务模式比滴滴更重的京东，却多年来绑着物流仓储业务，即便后者今年独立上市了，业绩依旧跟京东集团并表。\n不过有一说一，毕竟是持续投入、高补贴的科技行业，不能因为净利润就否认滴滴的成绩。滴滴主营业务的盈利能力在这几年的进步，其实是显著的。\n就拿占了滴滴营收九成以上的中国出行业务来说，经调整EBITA利润率已在2019年率先一步翻正——2019年实现2.6%，2020年为3%，2021年一季度更是达到了 9.2%。\n\n中国出行业务占了滴滴营收的九成。数据来源：滴滴招股书、天风证券研究所、贝瑞研究\n\n2020年滴滴核心平台运营模型。数据来源：滴滴公告、国盛证券研究所、贝瑞研究\n盈利的改善，很大程度上来自于降成本的成功。\n滴滴曾披露 2018年第四季度和2020年的网约车业务成本结构。据国盛证券测算，在乘客实际支付费用中，扣除给到司机的提成和奖励补贴后，平台的提取比例几乎没有变化——2018年第四季度平台提取12%、2020 年平台提取11.2%。\n而经营成本及费用则从2018年第四季度约14%，降至2020年的7.7%，可以说是硬生生挤出了盈利空间。\n\n数据来源：滴滴、国盛证券研究所、贝瑞研究\nPART3\n和Uber相比，滴滴究竟贵不贵？\n要评价滴滴贵不贵，全球共享出行第一把交椅Uber，总是个绕不过去的对标。我也将通过两种相对估值的方法，将二者进行比较。\n据滴滴招股书显示，截止2021年一季度，滴滴在全球拥有4.93亿的年活跃用户，2020年的GTV为2146亿人民币。（注：GTV，类似电商常说的GMV，指平台上的总成交额，更能反映主营业务的规模，但其不等于滴滴公司的收入。）\n相较之下，其竞争对手Uber虽然年活跃用户仅为9000万，但因为其主营市场客单价更高，GTV则反而大超滴滴，达到3700亿人民币。\n\n数据来源：滴滴招股书、贝瑞研究\n\n数据来源：滴滴招股书、Uber财报、36kr、贝瑞研究\n如果用市值/2020年GTV来计算，\n滴滴目前的水平约为2.1；\nUber目前的水平约为1.7；\n可见相对交易规模来说，滴滴现在的估值水平偏高。\n其次，从核心业务的利润水平来说，滴滴2020全年的EBITA利润率仅为3%；而Uber虽然受疫情，打车业务盈利增速趋缓，但2020年的EBITA利润率仍达到了19%。\n\n数据来源：滴滴招股书、Uber财报、36kr、贝瑞研究\n如果用股价/2020年EBITA利润率来计算，\n滴滴目前的水平约为4.7；\nUber目前的水平约为2.7；\n滴滴的估值水平远高于Uber，不过如上文分析，因为成本控制优良，滴滴的盈利能力正在不断提高，2021年的EBITA利润率已大幅提高，这一比率在未来可能将持续下降。\n注：以上计算中，\n滴滴股价按14美元计算，市值按700亿美元计算，折合人民币约为4520亿元。\nUber截至北京时间6月30日，股价为50.76美元，总市值为953.3亿美元，折合人民币约为6157亿元。\n总的来说，仅按目前的数据静态来看，我倾向于认为滴滴的估值水平是偏高的，现在入场，存在一定的破发风险。\n但是，正如市场中不少分析提到，随着滴滴的打车业务在国际化和国内下沉市场的持续渗透（花小猪已经做得相当优秀），包括对车服在内的不同业务的持续投入，以及自动驾驶Robotaxi的“梦想”等，这些长期来看会让滴滴比起战线收缩的Uber（主要是打车和外卖）拥有更大的想象空间，成长性也许能让滴滴显得没那么贵。\n至于能否一举给滴滴套上另一个估值模型，但就是后话了。等时机成熟，我会另开一篇跟大家掰扯。\n\n图片来源：滴滴招股书、贝瑞研究","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}