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调皮捣蛋猫咪

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调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-12-11

高盛反着买，别墅靠大海

美银、高盛接连发出警告：市场高兴得太早了

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-04-25

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$啥时候能张回去

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-03-17

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$明天会涨，别问我怎么知道的

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-03-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$兄弟们，是时候入手了，长期来看收益可观！

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-03-03

$京东(JD)$还是东哥666

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-02-15

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$$京东(JD)$相似的剧情天天演，可是韭菜就是不长记性！

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-02-15

$蔚来(NIO)$一分钱玩一天啊

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-02-12

$携程网(TCOM)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$京东(JD)$$苹果(AAPL)$兄弟们你们买到口罩了吗，没口罩怎么上班

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2020-02-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$等冠状病毒消失了，会大涨

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2019-12-26

$苹果(AAPL)$强者恒强

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2019-11-27

$斗鱼(DOYU)$看好斗鱼

调皮捣蛋猫咪

2019-11-08

$蔚来(NIO)$哪天财报？

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"listText":"高盛反着买，别墅靠大海","text":"高盛反着买，别墅靠大海","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395861352","repostId":"1110331401","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1110331401","pubTimestamp":1607562790,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110331401?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-10 09:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银、高盛接连发出警告：市场高兴得太早了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110331401","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发","content":"<blockquote>\n <i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b786396b8b9d7ac350aa58dc388ac3e3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"></p>\n<p>周二，美股收盘之际，标普500指数和纳指再度并肩刷出新高，投资者信心爆棚，但就在此刻，华尔街两大主流机构先后发出了警告——市场高兴得太早了，2021年迎接大家的很可能将是失望。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>美股和量化策略部门负责人萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）当日指出，市场其实是高度依赖财政和货币支持的，而后者在2021年能否延续下去大成疑问。她解释道，其实目前市场的高位是基于明年将推出“真正强势”的财政刺激计划的预期，而考虑到华盛顿的政治滞塞，这一幕成为现实的可能性正在不断降低。</p>\n<p>“市场是指望着能够从财政面，从联储那里得到持续不断的救援。”萨布拉玛尼安表示，“然而，未来几个月当中，乃至未来一两年，因为政治滞塞的缘故，我们已经很难指望从华盛顿得到什么实质性的东西了。”她解释道，“关键就在于，市场的上涨一直就是依靠着刺激机器，而这一大前提伴随2021年的到来，将遭遇到严峻挑战。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da74fa70ab90e296467d4e46e880d0af\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>这位策略师指出，其实经济复苏前景能够带来的好处很大程度上都已经在股价当中体现出来了，因此市场的风险面现在已经在“向着下跌一侧倾斜”。除了财政支持力度将不及预期之外，疫苗研发和使用速度不及预期也是潜在的风险。目前，萨布拉玛尼安的标普500指数2021年底目标点位是3800点，较之现在只高出3%，位列华尔街主流机构中最低者之一。</p>\n<p>许多投资者都相信，伴随疫苗在2021年广泛接种，压抑已久的各种需求将全线释放，带动经济发展，但是萨布拉玛尼安表示无法苟同。她解释说，其实消费需求2020年就可能崩溃，只是财政和货币刺激，以及企业裁员冻结等帮助支撑了需求，而这就意味着明年的反弹空间将是极为有限的。“事实上，今年许多支持消费需求的做法，其力度都可以说是史无前例，在这种情况下，我们已经很难断言说明年还将有多少压抑需求释放了。”</p>\n<p>稍早时的周一，以梅农（Arjun Menon）为首的策略师团队发布研究报告指出，伴随股票价格上涨日益脱离基本面，目前的股票投资头寸已经处于“极度拉伸”水平。高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad06cd66901abebf76475b05744285e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>高盛的策略师们指出，读数高于1个标准偏差值，“从历史上看来，就说明股票头寸出现了拉伸”。在经济增长迟缓或者稳定的情况下，这就意味着未来的短期回报将受到打压。“新冠病毒感染入院数据近期的窜升，以及不及预期的经济数据都意味着风险正在提升，我们可能在下个月便会遭遇基于头寸调整的小幅回挫。”</p>\n<p>由于拜登的胜选，以及疫苗研发取得的进展，美国股市在11月大幅上扬，投资者纷纷从成长型股票转向风险更高的价值型股票。不过，虽然面对着短期风险，高盛的2021年全年预期依然乐观，他们相信，到明年年底，标普500指数将涨至4300点，意味着较之现在高出大约16%。他们的理由是，疫苗的接种将造就V型复苏，而头寸拉伸的风险几个月后就将退去。</p>\n<p>之前，高盛的情绪指标读数超过两个标准偏差值时，标普500指数在接下来一周到四周的周期内往往走势疲软，但是两个月后，则往往就有所斩获了。哪怕股票头寸已经到了如此极端的地步，高盛策略师们依然估计投资者会持续从货币市场基金抽出资金，注入股市。原因就在于，未来若干年内，现金收益率都注定接近于零，而投资者希望经济复苏能够让股价持续上扬。</p>\n<p>美国家庭和外国投资者预计2021年都将成为美股的净买家，而前者估计将投入1000亿美元。与此同时，退休金基金则将成为净卖家。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银、高盛接连发出警告：市场高兴得太早了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-10 09:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mp98fVZVinAbTiYIhZyQTg><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。\n\n\n周二，美股收盘之际，标普500指数和纳指再度并肩刷出新高，投资者信心爆棚，但就在此刻，华尔街两大主流机构先后发出了警告——市场高兴得太早了，2021年迎接大家的很可能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mp98fVZVinAbTiYIhZyQTg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mp98fVZVinAbTiYIhZyQTg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110331401","content_text":"高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。\n\n\n周二，美股收盘之际，标普500指数和纳指再度并肩刷出新高，投资者信心爆棚，但就在此刻，华尔街两大主流机构先后发出了警告——市场高兴得太早了，2021年迎接大家的很可能将是失望。\n美国银行美股和量化策略部门负责人萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）当日指出，市场其实是高度依赖财政和货币支持的，而后者在2021年能否延续下去大成疑问。她解释道，其实目前市场的高位是基于明年将推出“真正强势”的财政刺激计划的预期，而考虑到华盛顿的政治滞塞，这一幕成为现实的可能性正在不断降低。\n“市场是指望着能够从财政面，从联储那里得到持续不断的救援。”萨布拉玛尼安表示，“然而，未来几个月当中，乃至未来一两年，因为政治滞塞的缘故，我们已经很难指望从华盛顿得到什么实质性的东西了。”她解释道，“关键就在于，市场的上涨一直就是依靠着刺激机器，而这一大前提伴随2021年的到来，将遭遇到严峻挑战。”\n\n这位策略师指出，其实经济复苏前景能够带来的好处很大程度上都已经在股价当中体现出来了，因此市场的风险面现在已经在“向着下跌一侧倾斜”。除了财政支持力度将不及预期之外，疫苗研发和使用速度不及预期也是潜在的风险。目前，萨布拉玛尼安的标普500指数2021年底目标点位是3800点，较之现在只高出3%，位列华尔街主流机构中最低者之一。\n许多投资者都相信，伴随疫苗在2021年广泛接种，压抑已久的各种需求将全线释放，带动经济发展，但是萨布拉玛尼安表示无法苟同。她解释说，其实消费需求2020年就可能崩溃，只是财政和货币刺激，以及企业裁员冻结等帮助支撑了需求，而这就意味着明年的反弹空间将是极为有限的。“事实上，今年许多支持消费需求的做法，其力度都可以说是史无前例，在这种情况下，我们已经很难断言说明年还将有多少压抑需求释放了。”\n稍早时的周一，以梅农（Arjun Menon）为首的策略师团队发布研究报告指出，伴随股票价格上涨日益脱离基本面，目前的股票投资头寸已经处于“极度拉伸”水平。高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。\n\n高盛的策略师们指出，读数高于1个标准偏差值，“从历史上看来，就说明股票头寸出现了拉伸”。在经济增长迟缓或者稳定的情况下，这就意味着未来的短期回报将受到打压。“新冠病毒感染入院数据近期的窜升，以及不及预期的经济数据都意味着风险正在提升，我们可能在下个月便会遭遇基于头寸调整的小幅回挫。”\n由于拜登的胜选，以及疫苗研发取得的进展，美国股市在11月大幅上扬，投资者纷纷从成长型股票转向风险更高的价值型股票。不过，虽然面对着短期风险，高盛的2021年全年预期依然乐观，他们相信，到明年年底，标普500指数将涨至4300点，意味着较之现在高出大约16%。他们的理由是，疫苗的接种将造就V型复苏，而头寸拉伸的风险几个月后就将退去。\n之前，高盛的情绪指标读数超过两个标准偏差值时，标普500指数在接下来一周到四周的周期内往往走势疲软，但是两个月后，则往往就有所斩获了。哪怕股票头寸已经到了如此极端的地步，高盛策略师们依然估计投资者会持续从货币市场基金抽出资金，注入股市。原因就在于，未来若干年内，现金收益率都注定接近于零，而投资者希望经济复苏能够让股价持续上扬。\n美国家庭和外国投资者预计2021年都将成为美股的净买家，而前者估计将投入1000亿美元。与此同时，退休金基金则将成为净卖家。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925367142,"gmtCreate":1587785258986,"gmtModify":1704365623874,"author":{"id":"3525080274741694","authorId":"3525080274741694","name":"调皮捣蛋猫咪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3525080274741694","authorIdStr":"3525080274741694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>哪天财报？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>哪天财报？","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$哪天财报？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/935086137","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914423987,"gmtCreate":1581440246549,"gmtModify":1704344206789,"author":{"id":"3525080274741694","authorId":"3525080274741694","name":"调皮捣蛋猫咪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3525080274741694","idStr":"3525080274741694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>等冠状病毒消失了，会大涨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>等冠状病毒消失了，会大涨","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$等冠状病毒消失了，会大涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914423987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983165638,"gmtCreate":1583173130924,"gmtModify":1704348945710,"author":{"id":"3525080274741694","authorId":"3525080274741694","name":"调皮捣蛋猫咪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3525080274741694","idStr":"3525080274741694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>还是东哥666","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>还是东哥666","text":"$京东(JD)$还是东哥666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983165638","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917691050,"gmtCreate":1581702029470,"gmtModify":1704345090335,"author":{"id":"3525080274741694","authorId":"3525080274741694","name":"调皮捣蛋猫咪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3525080274741694","idStr":"3525080274741694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>相似的剧情天天演，可是韭菜就是不长记性！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TQQQ\">$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>相似的剧情天天演，可是韭菜就是不长记性！","text":"$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$$京东(JD)$相似的剧情天天演，可是韭菜就是不长记性！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917691050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395861352,"gmtCreate":1607617695176,"gmtModify":1703849141982,"author":{"id":"3525080274741694","authorId":"3525080274741694","name":"调皮捣蛋猫咪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3525080274741694","idStr":"3525080274741694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高盛反着买，别墅靠大海","listText":"高盛反着买，别墅靠大海","text":"高盛反着买，别墅靠大海","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395861352","repostId":"1110331401","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1110331401","pubTimestamp":1607562790,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110331401?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-10 09:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银、高盛接连发出警告：市场高兴得太早了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110331401","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发","content":"<blockquote>\n <i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b786396b8b9d7ac350aa58dc388ac3e3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"></p>\n<p>周二，美股收盘之际，标普500指数和纳指再度并肩刷出新高，投资者信心爆棚，但就在此刻，华尔街两大主流机构先后发出了警告——市场高兴得太早了，2021年迎接大家的很可能将是失望。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>美股和量化策略部门负责人萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）当日指出，市场其实是高度依赖财政和货币支持的，而后者在2021年能否延续下去大成疑问。她解释道，其实目前市场的高位是基于明年将推出“真正强势”的财政刺激计划的预期，而考虑到华盛顿的政治滞塞，这一幕成为现实的可能性正在不断降低。</p>\n<p>“市场是指望着能够从财政面，从联储那里得到持续不断的救援。”萨布拉玛尼安表示，“然而，未来几个月当中，乃至未来一两年，因为政治滞塞的缘故，我们已经很难指望从华盛顿得到什么实质性的东西了。”她解释道，“关键就在于，市场的上涨一直就是依靠着刺激机器，而这一大前提伴随2021年的到来，将遭遇到严峻挑战。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da74fa70ab90e296467d4e46e880d0af\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>这位策略师指出，其实经济复苏前景能够带来的好处很大程度上都已经在股价当中体现出来了，因此市场的风险面现在已经在“向着下跌一侧倾斜”。除了财政支持力度将不及预期之外，疫苗研发和使用速度不及预期也是潜在的风险。目前，萨布拉玛尼安的标普500指数2021年底目标点位是3800点，较之现在只高出3%，位列华尔街主流机构中最低者之一。</p>\n<p>许多投资者都相信，伴随疫苗在2021年广泛接种，压抑已久的各种需求将全线释放，带动经济发展，但是萨布拉玛尼安表示无法苟同。她解释说，其实消费需求2020年就可能崩溃，只是财政和货币刺激，以及企业裁员冻结等帮助支撑了需求，而这就意味着明年的反弹空间将是极为有限的。“事实上，今年许多支持消费需求的做法，其力度都可以说是史无前例，在这种情况下，我们已经很难断言说明年还将有多少压抑需求释放了。”</p>\n<p>稍早时的周一，以梅农（Arjun Menon）为首的策略师团队发布研究报告指出，伴随股票价格上涨日益脱离基本面，目前的股票投资头寸已经处于“极度拉伸”水平。高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ad06cd66901abebf76475b05744285e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>高盛的策略师们指出，读数高于1个标准偏差值，“从历史上看来，就说明股票头寸出现了拉伸”。在经济增长迟缓或者稳定的情况下，这就意味着未来的短期回报将受到打压。“新冠病毒感染入院数据近期的窜升，以及不及预期的经济数据都意味着风险正在提升，我们可能在下个月便会遭遇基于头寸调整的小幅回挫。”</p>\n<p>由于拜登的胜选，以及疫苗研发取得的进展，美国股市在11月大幅上扬，投资者纷纷从成长型股票转向风险更高的价值型股票。不过，虽然面对着短期风险，高盛的2021年全年预期依然乐观，他们相信，到明年年底，标普500指数将涨至4300点，意味着较之现在高出大约16%。他们的理由是，疫苗的接种将造就V型复苏，而头寸拉伸的风险几个月后就将退去。</p>\n<p>之前，高盛的情绪指标读数超过两个标准偏差值时，标普500指数在接下来一周到四周的周期内往往走势疲软，但是两个月后，则往往就有所斩获了。哪怕股票头寸已经到了如此极端的地步，高盛策略师们依然估计投资者会持续从货币市场基金抽出资金，注入股市。原因就在于，未来若干年内，现金收益率都注定接近于零，而投资者希望经济复苏能够让股价持续上扬。</p>\n<p>美国家庭和外国投资者预计2021年都将成为美股的净买家，而前者估计将投入1000亿美元。与此同时，退休金基金则将成为净卖家。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银、高盛接连发出警告：市场高兴得太早了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-10 09:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mp98fVZVinAbTiYIhZyQTg><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。\n\n\n周二，美股收盘之际，标普500指数和纳指再度并肩刷出新高，投资者信心爆棚，但就在此刻，华尔街两大主流机构先后发出了警告——市场高兴得太早了，2021年迎接大家的很可能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mp98fVZVinAbTiYIhZyQTg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Mp98fVZVinAbTiYIhZyQTg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110331401","content_text":"高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。\n\n\n周二，美股收盘之际，标普500指数和纳指再度并肩刷出新高，投资者信心爆棚，但就在此刻，华尔街两大主流机构先后发出了警告——市场高兴得太早了，2021年迎接大家的很可能将是失望。\n美国银行美股和量化策略部门负责人萨布拉玛尼安（Savita Subramanian）当日指出，市场其实是高度依赖财政和货币支持的，而后者在2021年能否延续下去大成疑问。她解释道，其实目前市场的高位是基于明年将推出“真正强势”的财政刺激计划的预期，而考虑到华盛顿的政治滞塞，这一幕成为现实的可能性正在不断降低。\n“市场是指望着能够从财政面，从联储那里得到持续不断的救援。”萨布拉玛尼安表示，“然而，未来几个月当中，乃至未来一两年，因为政治滞塞的缘故，我们已经很难指望从华盛顿得到什么实质性的东西了。”她解释道，“关键就在于，市场的上涨一直就是依靠着刺激机器，而这一大前提伴随2021年的到来，将遭遇到严峻挑战。”\n\n这位策略师指出，其实经济复苏前景能够带来的好处很大程度上都已经在股价当中体现出来了，因此市场的风险面现在已经在“向着下跌一侧倾斜”。除了财政支持力度将不及预期之外，疫苗研发和使用速度不及预期也是潜在的风险。目前，萨布拉玛尼安的标普500指数2021年底目标点位是3800点，较之现在只高出3%，位列华尔街主流机构中最低者之一。\n许多投资者都相信，伴随疫苗在2021年广泛接种，压抑已久的各种需求将全线释放，带动经济发展，但是萨布拉玛尼安表示无法苟同。她解释说，其实消费需求2020年就可能崩溃，只是财政和货币刺激，以及企业裁员冻结等帮助支撑了需求，而这就意味着明年的反弹空间将是极为有限的。“事实上，今年许多支持消费需求的做法，其力度都可以说是史无前例，在这种情况下，我们已经很难断言说明年还将有多少压抑需求释放了。”\n稍早时的周一，以梅农（Arjun Menon）为首的策略师团队发布研究报告指出，伴随股票价格上涨日益脱离基本面，目前的股票投资头寸已经处于“极度拉伸”水平。高盛根据散户、机构和外国投资者数据编制的情绪指标上周结束时的读数达到了2个标准偏差值，居于2009年以来历史读数的第98个百分点。读数上一次达到这个水平还是在2019年9月，而几个月后，疫情便全面爆发，终结了美国史上最长的牛市。\n\n高盛的策略师们指出，读数高于1个标准偏差值，“从历史上看来，就说明股票头寸出现了拉伸”。在经济增长迟缓或者稳定的情况下，这就意味着未来的短期回报将受到打压。“新冠病毒感染入院数据近期的窜升，以及不及预期的经济数据都意味着风险正在提升，我们可能在下个月便会遭遇基于头寸调整的小幅回挫。”\n由于拜登的胜选，以及疫苗研发取得的进展，美国股市在11月大幅上扬，投资者纷纷从成长型股票转向风险更高的价值型股票。不过，虽然面对着短期风险，高盛的2021年全年预期依然乐观，他们相信，到明年年底，标普500指数将涨至4300点，意味着较之现在高出大约16%。他们的理由是，疫苗的接种将造就V型复苏，而头寸拉伸的风险几个月后就将退去。\n之前，高盛的情绪指标读数超过两个标准偏差值时，标普500指数在接下来一周到四周的周期内往往走势疲软，但是两个月后，则往往就有所斩获了。哪怕股票头寸已经到了如此极端的地步，高盛策略师们依然估计投资者会持续从货币市场基金抽出资金，注入股市。原因就在于，未来若干年内，现金收益率都注定接近于零，而投资者希望经济复苏能够让股价持续上扬。\n美国家庭和外国投资者预计2021年都将成为美股的净买家，而前者估计将投入1000亿美元。与此同时，退休金基金则将成为净卖家。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913117224,"gmtCreate":1577374731568,"gmtModify":1704335673741,"author":{"id":"3525080274741694","authorId":"3525080274741694","name":"调皮捣蛋猫咪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3525080274741694","idStr":"3525080274741694"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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