刘博_5090的个人主页 - 老虎社区

刘博_5090

刘博_5090

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：湖北

65关注

2粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2019-11-23

$中国创新投资(01217)$ 火了！我来过我见证！

2019-12-30

$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$ 买这个垃圾股比吃屎还恶心

2019-11-27

$京东(JD)$ 刘强东辞职转移外汇被罚款大家一起来做空

2020-01-07

$Progyny(PGNY)$ 解套了想不到坚持到了解套的一天

2019-12-30

$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$ 买这个股票比吃屎还恶心

2023-04-03

盘前大跌杯具了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-02

瓷器才是失去的十年艹

“失去的30年”是否可能在美国重演？

2019-12-09

$Biocept Inc.(BIOC)$ 0.2524的成本买了点有戏吗？

2019-12-02

$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$ 正等着做空呢哎

2019-12-02

$快餐帝国(01843)$ 为什么不能做空

2019-11-28

$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 教科书式的头肩顶卧日趋势技术诚不我欺也

2019-11-26

$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 我天这头肩顶的形态药丸啊

2019-11-26

$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 我天这头肩顶啊要崩了吧

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3523359105595443","uuid":"3523359105595443","gmtCreate":1560265085060,"gmtModify":1560265085060,"name":"刘博_5090","pinyin":"lb5090liubo5090","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":65,"tweetSize":13,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.02","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.23","exceedPercentage":"93.08%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.58%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"湖北","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":2,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":653950459,"gmtCreate":1680510509171,"gmtModify":1680510511144,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"盘前大跌 杯具了","listText":"盘前大跌 杯具了","text":"盘前大跌 杯具了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653950459","repostId":"1192817991","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192817991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1680487653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192817991?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-03 10:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"降价有效！特斯拉一季度产销双双创纪录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192817991","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"但分析师表示，降价对利润率的影响还有待观察。2023年初，由特斯拉掀起的价格战，在车企中掀起一阵腥风血雨。但凭借不讲武德的降价，特斯拉自己一季度产销双双创下记录。今年第一季度，特斯拉交付了42.29万","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>但分析师表示，降价对利润率的影响还有待观察。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年初，由特斯拉掀起的价格战，在车企中掀起一阵腥风血雨。但凭借不讲武德的降价，特斯拉自己一季度产销双双创下记录。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年第一季度，特斯拉交付了42.29万台汽车，比去年同期增加了36%，比去年四季度增加了4%，高于华尔街预期的42.12万辆。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，高端线Model S和X销量为10695台，约占该季度交付量的2%。主力车型Model 3和Model Y累计交付412180台。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dafcf3fa2c86fcb9333b40dfad3f339\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"342\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，特斯拉的产量也再创新高，达到44.1万台。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年一季度，特斯拉的各系产品都有大幅度降价。1月，特斯拉将基准款Model Y的价格下调了20%，高性能Model 3的价格下调了14%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在3月的投资者日后，特斯拉的高端车型也大幅降价，其中Model X的基本价格从109990美元降至99990美元，降幅约为9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克此前多次抱怨，持续恶化的宏观经济环境抑制了消费者的需求。在特斯拉投资者日上，他表示：</p><blockquote> &#34;人们非常渴望拥有特斯拉。限制性因素是他们的钱包。”</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，马斯克仁慈地选择了降价，倒逼福特、通用等车企纷纷选择跟进。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wedbush Securities的分析师Daniel Ives在一份报告中表示，降价给特斯拉 &#34;带来了重大红利”，不过，还需要关注对利润率的影响：</p><blockquote>&#34;我们认为中国消费者的需求在本季度对特斯拉有所改善，是该公司超过交付预期的关键。最大的问题将是利润率，因为降价将对这一方面产生影响。”</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克表示，特斯拉后续会推出更便宜的汽车，扩大其产品线，并且，还会进一步提高德国和奥斯汀的新工厂的产能。今年3月，特斯拉还宣布计划在墨西哥蒙特雷建造一座新工厂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年以来，特斯拉股价几乎翻了一番，达到207美元，表明投资者认可马斯克降价增产的努力。不过，特斯拉股价仍然远远低于2021年11月407美元的峰值。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e57fe7031654a96d217ebc59ef6a786\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉已经设定了一个目标，到2030年将产量提高10倍以上，达到每年2千万台。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>降价有效！特斯拉一季度产销双双创纪录</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n降价有效！特斯拉一季度产销双双创纪录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-03 10:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3685549><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>但分析师表示，降价对利润率的影响还有待观察。2023年初，由特斯拉掀起的价格战，在车企中掀起一阵腥风血雨。但凭借不讲武德的降价，特斯拉自己一季度产销双双创下记录。今年第一季度，特斯拉交付了42.29万台汽车，比去年同期增加了36%，比去年四季度增加了4%，高于华尔街预期的42.12万辆。其中，高端线Model S和X销量为10695台，约占该季度交付量的2%。主力车型Model 3和Model Y...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3685549\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3685549","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192817991","content_text":"但分析师表示，降价对利润率的影响还有待观察。2023年初，由特斯拉掀起的价格战，在车企中掀起一阵腥风血雨。但凭借不讲武德的降价，特斯拉自己一季度产销双双创下记录。今年第一季度，特斯拉交付了42.29万台汽车，比去年同期增加了36%，比去年四季度增加了4%，高于华尔街预期的42.12万辆。其中，高端线Model S和X销量为10695台，约占该季度交付量的2%。主力车型Model 3和Model Y累计交付412180台。此外，特斯拉的产量也再创新高，达到44.1万台。今年一季度，特斯拉的各系产品都有大幅度降价。1月，特斯拉将基准款Model Y的价格下调了20%，高性能Model 3的价格下调了14%。在3月的投资者日后，特斯拉的高端车型也大幅降价，其中Model X的基本价格从109990美元降至99990美元，降幅约为9%。马斯克此前多次抱怨，持续恶化的宏观经济环境抑制了消费者的需求。在特斯拉投资者日上，他表示： \"人们非常渴望拥有特斯拉。限制性因素是他们的钱包。”所以，马斯克仁慈地选择了降价，倒逼福特、通用等车企纷纷选择跟进。Wedbush Securities的分析师Daniel Ives在一份报告中表示，降价给特斯拉 \"带来了重大红利”，不过，还需要关注对利润率的影响：\"我们认为中国消费者的需求在本季度对特斯拉有所改善，是该公司超过交付预期的关键。最大的问题将是利润率，因为降价将对这一方面产生影响。”马斯克表示，特斯拉后续会推出更便宜的汽车，扩大其产品线，并且，还会进一步提高德国和奥斯汀的新工厂的产能。今年3月，特斯拉还宣布计划在墨西哥蒙特雷建造一座新工厂。今年以来，特斯拉股价几乎翻了一番，达到207美元，表明投资者认可马斯克降价增产的努力。不过，特斯拉股价仍然远远低于2021年11月407美元的峰值。特斯拉已经设定了一个目标，到2030年将产量提高10倍以上，达到每年2千万台。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911647021,"gmtCreate":1578332975463,"gmtModify":1704337260751,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGNY\">$Progyny(PGNY)$</a>&nbsp;解套了 想不到坚持到了解套的一天","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGNY\">$Progyny(PGNY)$</a>&nbsp;解套了 想不到坚持到了解套的一天","text":"$Progyny(PGNY)$ 解套了 想不到坚持到了解套的一天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911647021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911913880,"gmtCreate":1577976865540,"gmtModify":1704336686506,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"瓷器才是失去的十年 艹","listText":"瓷器才是失去的十年 艹","text":"瓷器才是失去的十年 艹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911913880","repostId":"1157266943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913538793,"gmtCreate":1577719423312,"gmtModify":1704336175757,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个垃圾股比吃屎还恶心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个垃圾股比吃屎还恶心","text":"$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$ 买这个垃圾股比吃屎还恶心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913538793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913538449,"gmtCreate":1577719406481,"gmtModify":1704336175930,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个股票比吃屎还恶心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个股票比吃屎还恶心","text":"$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$ 买这个股票比吃屎还恶心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913538449","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":910636990,"gmtCreate":1575903205710,"gmtModify":1704730121120,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOC\">$Biocept Inc.(BIOC)$</a>&nbsp;0.2524的成本买了点 有戏吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOC\">$Biocept Inc.(BIOC)$</a>&nbsp;0.2524的成本买了点 有戏吗？","text":"$Biocept Inc.(BIOC)$ 0.2524的成本买了点 有戏吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/910636990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937496739,"gmtCreate":1575297996121,"gmtModify":1704729216688,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$</a>&nbsp;正等着做空呢 哎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$</a>&nbsp;正等着做空呢 哎","text":"$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$ 正等着做空呢 哎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937496739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937528728,"gmtCreate":1575262220064,"gmtModify":1704729150278,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01843\">$快餐帝国(01843)$</a>&nbsp;为什么不能做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01843\">$快餐帝国(01843)$</a>&nbsp;为什么不能做空","text":"$快餐帝国(01843)$ 为什么不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937528728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937601006,"gmtCreate":1574906034505,"gmtModify":1704728788674,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;教科书式的头肩顶 卧日 趋势技术诚不我欺也","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;教科书式的头肩顶 卧日 趋势技术诚不我欺也","text":"$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 教科书式的头肩顶 卧日 趋势技术诚不我欺也","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937601006","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937831146,"gmtCreate":1574863281785,"gmtModify":1704728688615,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;刘强东辞职 转移外汇被罚款 大家一起来做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;刘强东辞职 转移外汇被罚款 大家一起来做空","text":"$京东(JD)$ 刘强东辞职 转移外汇被罚款 大家一起来做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937831146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937972767,"gmtCreate":1574732520059,"gmtModify":1704728385244,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶的形态 药丸啊&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶的形态 药丸啊&nbsp;","text":"$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 我天 这头肩顶的形态 药丸啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937972767","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937972517,"gmtCreate":1574732492339,"gmtModify":1704728385069,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶啊 要崩了吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶啊 要崩了吧","text":"$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 我天 这头肩顶啊 要崩了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937972517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":934753473,"gmtCreate":1574521963392,"gmtModify":1704728112465,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523359105595443","authorIdStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01217\">$中国创新投资(01217)$</a>&nbsp;火了！我来过 我见证！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01217\">$中国创新投资(01217)$</a>&nbsp;火了！我来过 我见证！","text":"$中国创新投资(01217)$ 火了！我来过 我见证！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/934753473","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":934753473,"gmtCreate":1574521963392,"gmtModify":1704728112465,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01217\">$中国创新投资(01217)$</a>&nbsp;火了！我来过 我见证！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01217\">$中国创新投资(01217)$</a>&nbsp;火了！我来过 我见证！","text":"$中国创新投资(01217)$ 火了！我来过 我见证！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/934753473","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913538793,"gmtCreate":1577719423312,"gmtModify":1704336175757,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个垃圾股比吃屎还恶心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个垃圾股比吃屎还恶心","text":"$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$ 买这个垃圾股比吃屎还恶心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913538793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937831146,"gmtCreate":1574863281785,"gmtModify":1704728688615,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;刘强东辞职 转移外汇被罚款 大家一起来做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>&nbsp;刘强东辞职 转移外汇被罚款 大家一起来做空","text":"$京东(JD)$ 刘强东辞职 转移外汇被罚款 大家一起来做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937831146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911647021,"gmtCreate":1578332975463,"gmtModify":1704337260751,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGNY\">$Progyny(PGNY)$</a>&nbsp;解套了 想不到坚持到了解套的一天","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PGNY\">$Progyny(PGNY)$</a>&nbsp;解套了 想不到坚持到了解套的一天","text":"$Progyny(PGNY)$ 解套了 想不到坚持到了解套的一天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911647021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913538449,"gmtCreate":1577719406481,"gmtModify":1704336175930,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个股票比吃屎还恶心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>&nbsp;买这个股票比吃屎还恶心","text":"$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$ 买这个股票比吃屎还恶心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913538449","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653950459,"gmtCreate":1680510509171,"gmtModify":1680510511144,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"盘前大跌 杯具了","listText":"盘前大跌 杯具了","text":"盘前大跌 杯具了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653950459","repostId":"1192817991","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911913880,"gmtCreate":1577976865540,"gmtModify":1704336686506,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"瓷器才是失去的十年 艹","listText":"瓷器才是失去的十年 艹","text":"瓷器才是失去的十年 艹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911913880","repostId":"1157266943","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157266943","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1577948284,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157266943?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-01-02 14:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“失去的30年”是否可能在美国重演？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157266943","media":"金十数据","summary":"都说市场是贪婪的，在低潮期待爆发，在顶端渴望更多，在落寞之时又期盼奇迹二次降临。","content":"<p>都说市场是贪婪的，在低潮期待爆发，在顶端渴望更多，在落寞之时又期盼奇迹二次降临。在这种贪婪的情绪背后，就是侥幸心理在作祟——似乎每个交易员都曾幻想发生在其他市场的暴跌不会在我的领域重演。如今，一片红火的美股就是最好的例证。</p><p>1989-2019年，标准普尔500指数在30年里上涨了800%，期间克服了多轮熊市和金融危机。</p><p>如今在不断续刷新高的狂欢期中，乐观的市场似乎认为股市永远不会下跌。或者说，即使下跌，也不会持续太久。但是有人指出，一个教训已经摆在眼前，而那可能会是美股的未来，即日本股市“失去的30年”。</p><p>1989年12月29日，日经指数收于创纪录的38915.87点。随后股市头也不回地走上了下坡路，市场期盼已久的牛市再也没有回来。30年后，日本股市比历史最高水平低了39%。</p><p>那么，“失去的30年”是否可能在美国重演？今天我们就一起看看美国和日本的3大相似之处。</p><p><b><span>01</span></b><b><span><u>市场充斥着低回报的资产</u></span></b></p><p>华尔街的分析师和投资组合经理们似乎越来越认同这样一个观点——在一个越来越像日本的世界里，即使经济还在增长，但未来几年投资者从股票到债券等各种资产上获得的回报可能会越来越少。如今随着美国经济降温，越来越多迹象都在证明着这一点。</p><ol><li>2019年，美国国债收益率跌至历史低点附近，远低于历史平均水平。</li></ol><ol><li>几个季度的减税刺激增长后，2019年底的企业利润勉强与上年基本持平。</li></ol><ol><li>生产率已经开始萎缩：在2000年至2007年平均增长达2.7%，2007年至2018年平均每年增长1.3%。</li></ol><p>CIBC私人财富管理公司首席投资官戴夫·多纳伯迪安（Dave Donabedian）表示，无论是美联储，还是经济学家，如今都很难找到一个让美国经济增长率回到3%趋势线上的方案。</p><p>多纳比迪安预计：</p><p>“鉴于美国市场较其他市场昂贵，未来5到10年，美股和美债的回报率将逐渐跌至平均水平以下，而新兴市场等不受欢迎的市场可能会因此更受欢迎。受美国经济放缓的拖累，一些在过去10年里被视为‘经典’的投资策略将被抛弃，例如：在美国买进并持有被动的指数跟踪型基金，将投资组合的60%配置为股票、40%配置为债券的经典策略等。”</p><p><b><span>02</span></b><b><span><u>负利率或是美联储难以拒绝的毒药</u></span></b></p><p>从日本、欧洲等国的实验中，我们可以得到的一个教训是，负利率制度是一个会上瘾的毒药，它们既不能“治病”，也难轻易摆脱。有人甚至认为，负利率制度不仅不会创造或加速经济活动，相反地，它会导致经济僵尸化。</p><p>过去10年，日本央行、欧洲央行和瑞士央行等央行纷纷将基准利率降至负值以抵御通缩螺旋的威胁。这些实行负利率的央行在初期都把负利率制度当作是一种短期补救措施，但承诺中的利率正常化却一直未能实现。</p><p>而在美国方面，虽然从美联储官员的表态看，负利率不会很快落地。但是正如金十此前在复盘2019全球央行的文章中指出的：“宽松是一场无法降落的飞行”。如果美国不快速启用财政政策等非降息手段来刺激经济，负利率或难以避免。</p><p>分析师表示，负利率制度将削弱了这些国家高收益资产的吸引力，扭曲资产价格。如今，德国、法国和奥地利等国的债券收益率已跌至创纪录低点；受到净息差下降的影响，银行利润也受到了冲击。</p><p><b><span>03</span></b><b><span><u>警惕结构性问题的影响</u></span></b></p><p>最后，我们再来看看一个很快将席卷发达国家的问题——人口老龄化。虽然美国的人口优势仍在，但和日本一样，美国已经开始深受人口老龄化所害。</p><p>Neuberger Berman股票业务总裁兼首席投资官约瑟夫·阿马托（Joseph Amato）表示:</p><p>“人口的迅速老龄化推高了医疗和养老成本，削减了劳动力，降低了生产率。在人口结构方面遭遇逆风的成熟发达经济体，将面临日本几十年来一直面临的许多问题。”</p><p>安联环球投资的德瓦内指出，在人口老龄化的世界里，上述的低收益、低回报问题对每个提供养老金的人、资产管理公司，以及为未来存钱的千禧一代都是巨大的挑战。</p><p>德瓦内进一步表示，尽管到目前为止，经济的结构性问题还没有中断美股牛市。但除非美国政界人士能够推动推动经济增长的结构性改革，无论是在医疗保健、基础设施还是移民方面，否则很难预测美国下一个经济增长动力将来自何处。</p><p>越来越多的迹象在一一浮现，日本的困境就像一个不断扩大的漩涡，越来越多的国家都在慢慢被牵引，被侵蚀。你们觉得美国能否逃过一劫？</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“失去的30年”是否可能在美国重演？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“失去的30年”是否可能在美国重演？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-02 14:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/55493><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>都说市场是贪婪的，在低潮期待爆发，在顶端渴望更多，在落寞之时又期盼奇迹二次降临。在这种贪婪的情绪背后，就是侥幸心理在作祟——似乎每个交易员都曾幻想发生在其他市场的暴跌不会在我的领域重演。如今，一片红火的美股就是最好的例证。1989-2019年，标准普尔500指数在30年里上涨了800%，期间克服了多轮熊市和金融危机。如今在不断续刷新高的狂欢期中，乐观的市场似乎认为股市永远不会下跌。或者说，即使下跌...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/55493\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/55493","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157266943","content_text":"都说市场是贪婪的，在低潮期待爆发，在顶端渴望更多，在落寞之时又期盼奇迹二次降临。在这种贪婪的情绪背后，就是侥幸心理在作祟——似乎每个交易员都曾幻想发生在其他市场的暴跌不会在我的领域重演。如今，一片红火的美股就是最好的例证。1989-2019年，标准普尔500指数在30年里上涨了800%，期间克服了多轮熊市和金融危机。如今在不断续刷新高的狂欢期中，乐观的市场似乎认为股市永远不会下跌。或者说，即使下跌，也不会持续太久。但是有人指出，一个教训已经摆在眼前，而那可能会是美股的未来，即日本股市“失去的30年”。1989年12月29日，日经指数收于创纪录的38915.87点。随后股市头也不回地走上了下坡路，市场期盼已久的牛市再也没有回来。30年后，日本股市比历史最高水平低了39%。那么，“失去的30年”是否可能在美国重演？今天我们就一起看看美国和日本的3大相似之处。01市场充斥着低回报的资产华尔街的分析师和投资组合经理们似乎越来越认同这样一个观点——在一个越来越像日本的世界里，即使经济还在增长，但未来几年投资者从股票到债券等各种资产上获得的回报可能会越来越少。如今随着美国经济降温，越来越多迹象都在证明着这一点。2019年，美国国债收益率跌至历史低点附近，远低于历史平均水平。几个季度的减税刺激增长后，2019年底的企业利润勉强与上年基本持平。生产率已经开始萎缩：在2000年至2007年平均增长达2.7%，2007年至2018年平均每年增长1.3%。CIBC私人财富管理公司首席投资官戴夫·多纳伯迪安（Dave Donabedian）表示，无论是美联储，还是经济学家，如今都很难找到一个让美国经济增长率回到3%趋势线上的方案。多纳比迪安预计：“鉴于美国市场较其他市场昂贵，未来5到10年，美股和美债的回报率将逐渐跌至平均水平以下，而新兴市场等不受欢迎的市场可能会因此更受欢迎。受美国经济放缓的拖累，一些在过去10年里被视为‘经典’的投资策略将被抛弃，例如：在美国买进并持有被动的指数跟踪型基金，将投资组合的60%配置为股票、40%配置为债券的经典策略等。”02负利率或是美联储难以拒绝的毒药从日本、欧洲等国的实验中，我们可以得到的一个教训是，负利率制度是一个会上瘾的毒药，它们既不能“治病”，也难轻易摆脱。有人甚至认为，负利率制度不仅不会创造或加速经济活动，相反地，它会导致经济僵尸化。过去10年，日本央行、欧洲央行和瑞士央行等央行纷纷将基准利率降至负值以抵御通缩螺旋的威胁。这些实行负利率的央行在初期都把负利率制度当作是一种短期补救措施，但承诺中的利率正常化却一直未能实现。而在美国方面，虽然从美联储官员的表态看，负利率不会很快落地。但是正如金十此前在复盘2019全球央行的文章中指出的：“宽松是一场无法降落的飞行”。如果美国不快速启用财政政策等非降息手段来刺激经济，负利率或难以避免。分析师表示，负利率制度将削弱了这些国家高收益资产的吸引力，扭曲资产价格。如今，德国、法国和奥地利等国的债券收益率已跌至创纪录低点；受到净息差下降的影响，银行利润也受到了冲击。03警惕结构性问题的影响最后，我们再来看看一个很快将席卷发达国家的问题——人口老龄化。虽然美国的人口优势仍在，但和日本一样，美国已经开始深受人口老龄化所害。Neuberger Berman股票业务总裁兼首席投资官约瑟夫·阿马托（Joseph Amato）表示:“人口的迅速老龄化推高了医疗和养老成本，削减了劳动力，降低了生产率。在人口结构方面遭遇逆风的成熟发达经济体，将面临日本几十年来一直面临的许多问题。”安联环球投资的德瓦内指出，在人口老龄化的世界里，上述的低收益、低回报问题对每个提供养老金的人、资产管理公司，以及为未来存钱的千禧一代都是巨大的挑战。德瓦内进一步表示，尽管到目前为止，经济的结构性问题还没有中断美股牛市。但除非美国政界人士能够推动推动经济增长的结构性改革，无论是在医疗保健、基础设施还是移民方面，否则很难预测美国下一个经济增长动力将来自何处。越来越多的迹象在一一浮现，日本的困境就像一个不断扩大的漩涡，越来越多的国家都在慢慢被牵引，被侵蚀。你们觉得美国能否逃过一劫？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":910636990,"gmtCreate":1575903205710,"gmtModify":1704730121120,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOC\">$Biocept Inc.(BIOC)$</a>&nbsp;0.2524的成本买了点 有戏吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIOC\">$Biocept Inc.(BIOC)$</a>&nbsp;0.2524的成本买了点 有戏吗？","text":"$Biocept Inc.(BIOC)$ 0.2524的成本买了点 有戏吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/910636990","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937496739,"gmtCreate":1575297996121,"gmtModify":1704729216688,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$</a>&nbsp;正等着做空呢 哎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASLN\">$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$</a>&nbsp;正等着做空呢 哎","text":"$Aslan Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(ASLN)$ 正等着做空呢 哎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937496739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937528728,"gmtCreate":1575262220064,"gmtModify":1704729150278,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01843\">$快餐帝国(01843)$</a>&nbsp;为什么不能做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01843\">$快餐帝国(01843)$</a>&nbsp;为什么不能做空","text":"$快餐帝国(01843)$ 为什么不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937528728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937601006,"gmtCreate":1574906034505,"gmtModify":1704728788674,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;教科书式的头肩顶 卧日 趋势技术诚不我欺也","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;教科书式的头肩顶 卧日 趋势技术诚不我欺也","text":"$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 教科书式的头肩顶 卧日 趋势技术诚不我欺也","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937601006","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937972767,"gmtCreate":1574732520059,"gmtModify":1704728385244,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶的形态 药丸啊&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶的形态 药丸啊&nbsp;","text":"$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 我天 这头肩顶的形态 药丸啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937972767","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937972517,"gmtCreate":1574732492339,"gmtModify":1704728385069,"author":{"id":"3523359105595443","authorId":"3523359105595443","name":"刘博_5090","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c831381c3e4482780942bb038640c5c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3523359105595443","idStr":"3523359105595443"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶啊 要崩了吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01951\">$锦欣生殖(01951)$</a>&nbsp;我天 这头肩顶啊 要崩了吧","text":"$锦欣生殖(01951)$ 我天 这头肩顶啊 要崩了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937972517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}