老虎不糊的个人主页 - 老虎社区

老虎不糊

老虎不糊

投资是细节与逻辑的美学

IP属地：浙江

24关注

59粉丝

0主题

0勋章

10-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 教科书般的左侧无底洞形态，买这个的莫非是第一天玩股票？

05-13

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 28年5到7月是猴年马月，能不能回补26块的缺口

04-19

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 差一个3点以上的大阴线，宣告本轮牛市结束

2020-12-17

$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$请教下瑞幸可以重新上市吗？

2019-08-04

$老虎证券(TIGR)$马上要凑够5000积分兑换马克杯了，千万不要是福建小作坊出品的。期待下，不要让我失望[可爱]

2019-06-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 叫你们不要玩假股票了，要玩就玩真股票。假股票是把你们当韭菜的，真股票是可以盈利。[开心]

10-21

$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$ 3.02进3.06出，3.55进4.02出，3.5接回什么价格出？

04-18

$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$ 历史会重演吗？70年代的滞胀，股市也是在原来高点和低点多次来回后，才能再次突破

10-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 好经典的左侧无底洞形态，不愧是爱吃人的老虎

2020-12-08

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$今天又要补跌[无语]

03-07

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 会不会总市值跌到10万美元

02-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 持有老虎有Adr收费吗

10-14

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡

2019-07-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@点拾投资:用13句话告诉你查理芒格的投资智慧

09-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小金人塔尔塔洛斯:VIX与标普500走势的探讨

05-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 小猫和大牛，啥时候能大猫小牛？

05-14

Replying to @benjaminshi:留点钱交ADR//@benjaminshi:我重仓了那个5年再看

@光和影的旅行:$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 这个还有虎有家人吗？这波回调到底了没，能不能去10刀

04-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 强者恒强，过段切换到富途。希望下次不要在同一条河流摔倒

04-20

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 很久不见3%以上大阴线

04-06

我现在已经很少看盘了，熬夜会大度减少寿命

@杨帆1977:$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 耐心

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$&nbsp;</a> 3.02进3.06出，3.55进4.02出，3.5接回什么价格出？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$&nbsp;</a> 3.02进3.06出，3.55进4.02出，3.5接回什么价格出？","text":"$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$ 3.02进3.06出，3.55进4.02出，3.5接回什么价格出？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362423016796440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093963875019410","authorId":"4093963875019410","name":"伍家的伍千亿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4738c11d5c73dd6b1e9be9a916f7ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4093963875019410","authorIdStr":"4093963875019410"},"content":"它这只股说是有损耗，损耗的比例是多少？可以科普一下吗？","text":"它这只股说是有损耗，损耗的比例是多少？可以科普一下吗？","html":"它这只股说是有损耗，损耗的比例是多少？可以科普一下吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359976375591000,"gmtCreate":1728916671445,"gmtModify":1728916672666,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359976375591000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346869790736696,"gmtCreate":1725714417841,"gmtModify":1725714419815,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346869790736696","repostId":"338091336642832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338091336642832,"gmtCreate":1723560916661,"gmtModify":1723561581384,"author":{"id":"4138162702481440","authorId":"4138162702481440","name":"小金人塔尔塔洛斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74515f0769d195af6672e1b69924d581","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4138162702481440","authorIdStr":"4138162702481440"},"themes":[],"title":"VIX与标普500走势的探讨","htmlText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","listText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","text":"多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 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差一个3点以上的大阴线，宣告本轮牛市结束","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296995414286440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3500038331774042","authorId":"3500038331774042","name":"MZET","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac0ff5c3153ab4e33b884c247f79c68","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3500038331774042","authorIdStr":"3500038331774042"},"content":"为什么不是，牛中见熊呢？ 动不动就结束结束，结束那么多美元去哪儿，搞全球通胀吗？","text":"为什么不是，牛中见熊呢？ 动不动就结束结束，结束那么多美元去哪儿，搞全球通胀吗？","html":"为什么不是，牛中见熊呢？ 动不动就结束结束，结束那么多美元去哪儿，搞全球通胀吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296541479522440,"gmtCreate":1713435570612,"gmtModify":1713435571836,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 历史会重演吗？70年代的滞胀，股市也是在原来高点和低点多次来回后，才能再次突破","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 历史会重演吗？70年代的滞胀，股市也是在原来高点和低点多次来回后，才能再次突破","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$ 历史会重演吗？70年代的滞胀，股市也是在原来高点和低点多次来回后，才能再次突破","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296541479522440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3523020859331474","authorId":"3523020859331474","name":"好无聊的老头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e848f36c3f05aba43d9dfccd50ca5aa0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3523020859331474","authorIdStr":"3523020859331474"},"content":"今天再跌一个多点了看这个逼样子","text":"今天再跌一个多点了看这个逼样子","html":"今天再跌一个多点了看这个逼样子"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":292221989408816,"gmtCreate":1712369195605,"gmtModify":1712369198385,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我现在已经很少看盘了，熬夜会大度减少寿命","listText":"我现在已经很少看盘了，熬夜会大度减少寿命","text":"我现在已经很少看盘了，熬夜会大度减少寿命","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292221989408816","repostId":"292141970907408","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":292141970907408,"gmtCreate":1712349610281,"gmtModify":1712349612806,"author":{"id":"3555112578661940","authorId":"3555112578661940","name":"杨帆1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5128c060dc9dbe1fdf91e73de72d5e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555112578661940","authorIdStr":"3555112578661940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ &nbsp;</a>耐心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ &nbsp;</a>耐心","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 耐心","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d88e7c700ac7fcbc8bcd2f37c3136c1","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292141970907408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290835479277816,"gmtCreate":1712030641858,"gmtModify":1712031538702,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"典型庄股什么美联储不美联储，不知猴年马月可以补25块多的缺口","listText":"典型庄股什么美联储不美联储，不知猴年马月可以补25块多的缺口","text":"典型庄股什么美联储不美联储，不知猴年马月可以补25块多的缺口","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290835479277816","repostId":"290781557010680","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":290781557010680,"gmtCreate":1712017477242,"gmtModify":1712021773225,"author":{"id":"3478772140981344","authorId":"3478772140981344","name":"贷款炒股达人侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71425364bdfa10494b129ea08bc110b0","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3478772140981344","authorIdStr":"3478772140981344"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>难道也是要等美联储？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>难道也是要等美联储？","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$难道也是要等美联储？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/097cc51c1d809164399e8d2c2c58a178","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290781557010680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283212624191696,"gmtCreate":1710172216779,"gmtModify":1710172296332,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ </a> 小盘剧震赌博股，不是天堂就是地狱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ </a> 小盘剧震赌博股，不是天堂就是地狱","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 小盘剧震赌博股，不是天堂就是地狱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283212624191696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281620394795024,"gmtCreate":1709783364431,"gmtModify":1709783365893,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 会不会总市值跌到10万美元","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 会不会总市值跌到10万美元","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 会不会总市值跌到10万美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281620394795024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4096467234857870","authorId":"4096467234857870","name":"安徽铭徽","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4096467234857870","authorIdStr":"4096467234857870"},"content":"放心，到不了那个位置就启动退市了，或者继续合股，","text":"放心，到不了那个位置就启动退市了，或者继续合股，","html":"放心，到不了那个位置就启动退市了，或者继续合股，"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":278986742505480,"gmtCreate":1709133410514,"gmtModify":1709136537518,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 持有老虎有Adr收费吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 持有老虎有Adr收费吗","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 持有老虎有Adr收费吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/278986742505480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":236287741730840,"gmtCreate":1698709430729,"gmtModify":1698709431981,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/236287741730840","repostId":"2377874625","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2377874625","pubTimestamp":1698076859,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2377874625?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-24 00:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jumia: Challenging Prospects","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2377874625","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Jumia sees good progress on reducing losses and cash burn; however, this was largely driven by cuts to marketing expenses.Near-term outlook is unexciting due to macro challenges.Challenging medium-ter","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Jumia sees good progress on reducing losses and cash burn; however, this was largely driven by cuts to marketing expenses.</li><li>Near-term outlook is unexciting due to macro challenges.</li><li>Challenging medium-term growth prospects due to funding constraints and rising competition from strong players with considerable competitive advantages.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1152px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Slimoche</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Pan-African online retailer Jumia (<span>NYSE:JMIA</span>) faces challenging near term prospects largely driven by macro challenges in the region. While cost cuts have helped narrow losses and reduce cash burn this has come at the expense of marketing expenses<span> and a shrinking ecosystem which may impact their competitiveness longer term in a market that may evolve into an oligopoly dominated by a handful of the strongest players given the competitiveness of the retail industry. Funding constraints and increasing competitive pressures raises question marks over their medium term growth and earnings prospects.</span></p> <h2>Company Overview</h2> <p>Often nicknamed the Amazon of Africa, Jumia is a pan-African online retail platform comprising their eCommerce marketplace which connects merchants with shoppers across a variety of goods and services (including food delivery, grocery delivery), their online payments service JumiaPay which enables shoppers to make payments to merchants for orders as<span> well as make other payments such as bill payments, and Jumia Logistics their logistics service which facilitates order fulfillment for merchants on Jumia’s own platform as well as third party businesses needing fulfillment services. Jumia Lending, their merchant financing solution, enables merchants to access funding provided by third-party financial institutions.</span></p> <p>The company has a presence in three regions in Africa consisting of 11 countries (West Africa, which includes Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Senegal; North Africa, which includes Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia; and East and South Africa, which includes Kenya, South Africa and Uganda) which collectively generate approximately 70% of Africa’s $3 trillion GDP in 2022. Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco and Ivory Coast are Jumia’s top five markets.</p> <h2>1H 2023 performance</h2> <p>1H 2023 revenues declined 9.7% on the back of declines across all key operating metrics as well as foreign currency impacts. Quarterly active consumers declined 22.5% and 28% in Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 respectively (reaching 2.4 million users at the end of Q2 2023). Orders dropped 31.4% and GMV dropped 23.5% in 1H 2023 contributing to a drop in JumiaPay Total Payment Volume (TPV) which fell 27.2% and JumiaPay Transactions which dropped 37.8% in 1H 2023.</p> <p>All revenue streams except Commissions declined in 1H 2023. Commissions revenue increased due to commission take rate increases implemented in mid-2022.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/22/saupload_EWgkbbOYyHdKnyujmnDwOvO6kNJskfz8WMSe3HQGtKLAO9kmWnJt5xWyltNaj_KqRTqEXGhv6MJ59CxGGfT1WbX-Vlm4W7t-NuE5KOdzZ3rXx85uP6AibU28XnB-d2V0eowbvPFn9I58RkOy5oopt7A.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Jumia Technologies 6-K, Q2 2023</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The declines were driven by a number of factors notably macro challenges in the African region (average inflation level across Jumia’s footprint reached 14% in June 2023) which impacted consumer spending power, import restrictions which impacted sellers ability to source goods from overseas, category rationalization which saw management exit unprofitable operations (such as their first-party grocery service and many digital services offered through JumiaPay) and foreign exchange impacts.</p> <p>Gross margin improved to 57.6% in 1H 2023 from 54.3% the same period last year, helped by the commission take-rate increase implemented in mid-2022. Operating losses narrowed on the back of cost cutting efforts with operating margin improving from negative 127% in 1H 2023 to negative 58% 1H 2023, largely driven by a 71% YoY drop in Sales &amp; Advertising expenses. The company’s operating cash flow improved to negative $39.7 million in 1H 2023 from negative $133 million the prior year period.</p> <p>Near term, a challenging macro environment, and the company’s continued exit of unprofitable business lines is likely to result in continued revenue declines. Soaring inflation, partly driven by soaring food prices which accounts for the bulk of household budgets in the region (in Nigeria and Kenya, two of Jumia’s top 5 markets, food accounts for 56% and 47% of household budgets respectively compared with about 6% in the U.S.) is crimping consumer purchasing power and therefore ad budgets, and the company may continue to review and exit low value business lines (such as food delivery as noted in their FY222 annual filing).</p> <p>Management’s focus on further cost cuts may help lessen losses this year although the company is likely to remain unprofitable. FY 2023 Sales &amp; Advertising expenses are expected to be between $20 million - $30 million (compared to $76 million in 2022) on the back of reduced online marketing spend and increased offline spend as the company reduces focus on promotion-heavy digital services offered on JumiaPay, and shifts ad dollars to more cost effective channels such as offline advertising which according to management better drives awareness as detailed in their latest annual filing.</p> <h2>Prospects</h2> <p>Africa’s eCommerce growth story is intact with growth projected in the double digits over the coming years. While focusing on profitability, management’s growth strategy involves increasing the marketplace platform’s appeal by focusing on categories with underserved demand (such as mobile phones and electronics, fashion and beauty products) and increasing penetration into existing geographical markets (which implies an expansion into lower tier and rural regions). This may help support Commissions growth, their biggest revenue stream accounting for about a quarter of revenues in 1H 2023.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the shift in higher value categories could improve unit economics (average order value rose 18% YoY to $31 in Q2 2023), however this may be offset by their expansion into lower tier regions where smaller basket sizes (relative to urban shoppers) and poor logistics infrastructure is likely to result in higher fulfillment costs and possibly an increase in failed delivery rates (Jumia’s “Cancellations, Failed Deliveries and Returns” (“CFDR”) rate as a percentage of GMV was around 20% in 2022 and the CFDR rate as a percentage of Orders was around 15% in 2022). Despite efforts to reduce their CFDR by encouraging buyers to pay upfront through JumiaPay, CFDR has improved very slowly over the years and customers continue to favor cash on delivery (COD) with “a high proportion of transactions” on Jumia’s marketplace settled in cash. Just 30% of orders on the platform paid for through JumiaPay as of 2022. More likely than not, rural shoppers may favor COD as well given its obvious benefits to buyers.</p> <p>Management's cost cutting effort can only go so far; growth may be needed to achieve profitability through scale economies. For perspective, Chinese eCommerce player PDD Holdings (whose customer base is relatively budget conscious compared to fellow rivals like JD.com), turned profitable at the end of 2021 (six years after its founding) when their active buyers exceeded 800 million by December 2021. Jumia, founded over a decade ago, has just 8.4 million active annual customers as of December 2022, a fraction of the more than 400 million population in their top four markets i.e., Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya and Morocco. The company’s top-line growth of 14% CAGR over the past five years lags far behind PDD whose revenues grew at 134% CAGR during the same period.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/22/saupload_H92p9Qhe_tsg559tN1_4X7Vwc90dNH5NmWD7XDwVjKQ0yejw1wQYCBhpUjMAmxbdbfeQc9ltGXurX2JlsCkUtn6zV7XJHyE9GDzJkso731xz_WM_DTWM2nM0pgClikWTkps6Z4hl9bSwd9YuNmf1IEY.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>PDD's consistent growth has translated into a consistently improving earnings performance in contrast to Jumia.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/22/saupload_1Fy7tiX5KiBcPFSg2LbpC_K-hetQF9y-UPPKzewjDZX5_a8RKk7jdghQjyaEcdX1vdPieIvd5TxzFnVixIBklMU81335lXF_hhKQfTiupA82q0GzLjBgH4pKQjjgzu06HAEPiJXAL3tBRfNrvhELihY.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Management has not given any firm guidance on when breakeven could be achieved however a shrinking digital ecosystem and limited financial resources to make necessary logistics investments to support expansion (the company’s bank balance of $166 million as of June 2023 could support them for a couple of years or so at their current burn rate, 1H 2023 free cash flow = approximately -$40 million) does not bode well for growth and therefore earnings prospects.</p> <p>It also leaves the company more vulnerable to competitive pressures from stronger players; Amazon has announced their entry into South Africa in 2024, which could give them a platform to gradually access the rest of Africa. Amazon has considerable advantages including financial resources, access to global marketplace platforms enabling Africans easy access to an unrivaled number of overseas vendors, as well as a massive ecosystem of consumer products and services (including eBooks, video streaming etc) to entice shopper loyalty and repeat purchases through their highly successful Amazon Prime membership.</p> <p>Chinese fast fashion giant Shein is already gaining rapid traction in South Africa driven by word of mouth, and could see similar traction in the rest of Africa as well, potentially threatening Jumia’s ambitions in the fashion segment given Shein’s supply chain advantages.</p> <h2>Valuation</h2> <p>Jumia has a sell analyst consensus rating.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/22/saupload_XdfP_g8vrt80EYO12zD6ymBLdYImoaoc9DQf4MnBH9qYAQPu-HxqYhZ_H_bV47FNvcVhe-aybQ3EKxyjv_9yeZnEILMWd47x9TLRd5Z0RAeRZPY3l-S3iWcnP1wLoHU1oQLxxxBLe4eH1x2dIymkodI.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Jumia’s growth and financial performance over the past decade has been unexciting, and the company continues to burn cash. While losses have been narrowing, it has come at the expense of reduced marketing spend and a shrinking ecosystem. The company is resource constrained leaving question marks over their ability to make necessary investments to support growth and defend market share against new competitors seeking to capitalize on Africa’s eCommerce growth story. Some of these competitors wield considerable competitive advantages over Jumia including a wide global presence and access to global vendors, funding, supply chain, and arguably a more compelling value proposition due to a wider ecosystem of consumer services.</p> <p>Jumia’s market valuation of $234 million is 2.3 times their forward book value, and 1.2 times their forward sales, both higher than the sector median of 2.2 and 0.78 respectively, a pricey valuation for a company with a weak outlook near term and uncertain growth prospects medium term. A short interest of 10% suggests investor pessimism over the company’s prospects.</p> <div></div> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/10/22/saupload_Z_WYMED-GCdzPnmKX2jZwpJzUGmmOGrb9-33p5_zWu0r2PZvdv-AKnooIu-LpZBzcfEfl6y1-yRK_zHPaPr58cMA-i18E4gyVGaQ4XjKRLgSU9VrEQ9-bJiS4ZAutE4XheSxdub1lvx_7JJTjgkESTs.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jumia: Challenging Prospects</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJumia: Challenging Prospects\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-24 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4642632-jumia-challenging-prospects><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Jumia sees good progress on reducing losses and cash burn; however, this was largely driven by cuts to marketing expenses.Near-term outlook is unexciting due to macro challenges.Challenging medium-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4642632-jumia-challenging-prospects\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1370488541/image_1370488541.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4220":"综合零售","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU0354030511.USD":"ALLSPRING  U.S. LARGE CAP GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474705.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LU0354030438.USD":"富国美国大盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","AMZN":"亚马逊","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","JMIA":"Jumia Technologies AG","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4642632-jumia-challenging-prospects","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2377874625","content_text":"Jumia sees good progress on reducing losses and cash burn; however, this was largely driven by cuts to marketing expenses.Near-term outlook is unexciting due to macro challenges.Challenging medium-term growth prospects due to funding constraints and rising competition from strong players with considerable competitive advantages.   Slimoche Pan-African online retailer Jumia (NYSE:JMIA) faces challenging near term prospects largely driven by macro challenges in the region. While cost cuts have helped narrow losses and reduce cash burn this has come at the expense of marketing expenses and a shrinking ecosystem which may impact their competitiveness longer term in a market that may evolve into an oligopoly dominated by a handful of the strongest players given the competitiveness of the retail industry. Funding constraints and increasing competitive pressures raises question marks over their medium term growth and earnings prospects. Company Overview Often nicknamed the Amazon of Africa, Jumia is a pan-African online retail platform comprising their eCommerce marketplace which connects merchants with shoppers across a variety of goods and services (including food delivery, grocery delivery), their online payments service JumiaPay which enables shoppers to make payments to merchants for orders as well as make other payments such as bill payments, and Jumia Logistics their logistics service which facilitates order fulfillment for merchants on Jumia’s own platform as well as third party businesses needing fulfillment services. Jumia Lending, their merchant financing solution, enables merchants to access funding provided by third-party financial institutions. The company has a presence in three regions in Africa consisting of 11 countries (West Africa, which includes Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Senegal; North Africa, which includes Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia; and East and South Africa, which includes Kenya, South Africa and Uganda) which collectively generate approximately 70% of Africa’s $3 trillion GDP in 2022. Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco and Ivory Coast are Jumia’s top five markets. 1H 2023 performance 1H 2023 revenues declined 9.7% on the back of declines across all key operating metrics as well as foreign currency impacts. Quarterly active consumers declined 22.5% and 28% in Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 respectively (reaching 2.4 million users at the end of Q2 2023). Orders dropped 31.4% and GMV dropped 23.5% in 1H 2023 contributing to a drop in JumiaPay Total Payment Volume (TPV) which fell 27.2% and JumiaPay Transactions which dropped 37.8% in 1H 2023. All revenue streams except Commissions declined in 1H 2023. Commissions revenue increased due to commission take rate increases implemented in mid-2022.   Jumia Technologies 6-K, Q2 2023 The declines were driven by a number of factors notably macro challenges in the African region (average inflation level across Jumia’s footprint reached 14% in June 2023) which impacted consumer spending power, import restrictions which impacted sellers ability to source goods from overseas, category rationalization which saw management exit unprofitable operations (such as their first-party grocery service and many digital services offered through JumiaPay) and foreign exchange impacts. Gross margin improved to 57.6% in 1H 2023 from 54.3% the same period last year, helped by the commission take-rate increase implemented in mid-2022. Operating losses narrowed on the back of cost cutting efforts with operating margin improving from negative 127% in 1H 2023 to negative 58% 1H 2023, largely driven by a 71% YoY drop in Sales & Advertising expenses. The company’s operating cash flow improved to negative $39.7 million in 1H 2023 from negative $133 million the prior year period. Near term, a challenging macro environment, and the company’s continued exit of unprofitable business lines is likely to result in continued revenue declines. Soaring inflation, partly driven by soaring food prices which accounts for the bulk of household budgets in the region (in Nigeria and Kenya, two of Jumia’s top 5 markets, food accounts for 56% and 47% of household budgets respectively compared with about 6% in the U.S.) is crimping consumer purchasing power and therefore ad budgets, and the company may continue to review and exit low value business lines (such as food delivery as noted in their FY222 annual filing). Management’s focus on further cost cuts may help lessen losses this year although the company is likely to remain unprofitable. FY 2023 Sales & Advertising expenses are expected to be between $20 million - $30 million (compared to $76 million in 2022) on the back of reduced online marketing spend and increased offline spend as the company reduces focus on promotion-heavy digital services offered on JumiaPay, and shifts ad dollars to more cost effective channels such as offline advertising which according to management better drives awareness as detailed in their latest annual filing. Prospects Africa’s eCommerce growth story is intact with growth projected in the double digits over the coming years. While focusing on profitability, management’s growth strategy involves increasing the marketplace platform’s appeal by focusing on categories with underserved demand (such as mobile phones and electronics, fashion and beauty products) and increasing penetration into existing geographical markets (which implies an expansion into lower tier and rural regions). This may help support Commissions growth, their biggest revenue stream accounting for about a quarter of revenues in 1H 2023. Meanwhile, the shift in higher value categories could improve unit economics (average order value rose 18% YoY to $31 in Q2 2023), however this may be offset by their expansion into lower tier regions where smaller basket sizes (relative to urban shoppers) and poor logistics infrastructure is likely to result in higher fulfillment costs and possibly an increase in failed delivery rates (Jumia’s “Cancellations, Failed Deliveries and Returns” (“CFDR”) rate as a percentage of GMV was around 20% in 2022 and the CFDR rate as a percentage of Orders was around 15% in 2022). Despite efforts to reduce their CFDR by encouraging buyers to pay upfront through JumiaPay, CFDR has improved very slowly over the years and customers continue to favor cash on delivery (COD) with “a high proportion of transactions” on Jumia’s marketplace settled in cash. Just 30% of orders on the platform paid for through JumiaPay as of 2022. More likely than not, rural shoppers may favor COD as well given its obvious benefits to buyers. Management's cost cutting effort can only go so far; growth may be needed to achieve profitability through scale economies. For perspective, Chinese eCommerce player PDD Holdings (whose customer base is relatively budget conscious compared to fellow rivals like JD.com), turned profitable at the end of 2021 (six years after its founding) when their active buyers exceeded 800 million by December 2021. Jumia, founded over a decade ago, has just 8.4 million active annual customers as of December 2022, a fraction of the more than 400 million population in their top four markets i.e., Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya and Morocco. The company’s top-line growth of 14% CAGR over the past five years lags far behind PDD whose revenues grew at 134% CAGR during the same period.   Author PDD's consistent growth has translated into a consistently improving earnings performance in contrast to Jumia.   Author Management has not given any firm guidance on when breakeven could be achieved however a shrinking digital ecosystem and limited financial resources to make necessary logistics investments to support expansion (the company’s bank balance of $166 million as of June 2023 could support them for a couple of years or so at their current burn rate, 1H 2023 free cash flow = approximately -$40 million) does not bode well for growth and therefore earnings prospects. It also leaves the company more vulnerable to competitive pressures from stronger players; Amazon has announced their entry into South Africa in 2024, which could give them a platform to gradually access the rest of Africa. Amazon has considerable advantages including financial resources, access to global marketplace platforms enabling Africans easy access to an unrivaled number of overseas vendors, as well as a massive ecosystem of consumer products and services (including eBooks, video streaming etc) to entice shopper loyalty and repeat purchases through their highly successful Amazon Prime membership. Chinese fast fashion giant Shein is already gaining rapid traction in South Africa driven by word of mouth, and could see similar traction in the rest of Africa as well, potentially threatening Jumia’s ambitions in the fashion segment given Shein’s supply chain advantages. Valuation Jumia has a sell analyst consensus rating.   Seeking Alpha Jumia’s growth and financial performance over the past decade has been unexciting, and the company continues to burn cash. While losses have been narrowing, it has come at the expense of reduced marketing spend and a shrinking ecosystem. The company is resource constrained leaving question marks over their ability to make necessary investments to support growth and defend market share against new competitors seeking to capitalize on Africa’s eCommerce growth story. Some of these competitors wield considerable competitive advantages over Jumia including a wide global presence and access to global vendors, funding, supply chain, and arguably a more compelling value proposition due to a wider ecosystem of consumer services. Jumia’s market valuation of $234 million is 2.3 times their forward book value, and 1.2 times their forward sales, both higher than the sector median of 2.2 and 0.78 respectively, a pricey valuation for a company with a weak outlook near term and uncertain growth prospects medium term. A short interest of 10% suggests investor pessimism over the company’s prospects.    Seeking Alpha","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663781905,"gmtCreate":1663474427008,"gmtModify":1663474431057,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663781905","repostId":"663520812","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":663520812,"gmtCreate":1663293036136,"gmtModify":1663307498987,"author":{"id":"3478213283465426","authorId":"3478213283465426","name":"美股投资网","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1bfd2cf1aa240d7058795c83d419510","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3478213283465426","authorIdStr":"3478213283465426"},"themes":[],"title":"美股底部的推算，一个能评估整个股市估值的万能指标","htmlText":"\n \n \n  今天我们跟各位分享一个能评估整个股市估值的万能指标，这个指标它整合了宏观经济数据和整个美股市场公司的估值，我们就能推算出美股还能跌多少个百分比，底部具体在什么范围。除此以外，我还会给大家补充两个周期调整指标，阅读完一定能增长你的金融知识。Warren buffet indicator 巴菲特指标现在的美股总市值是43.7万亿美元，而美国GDP是25万亿美元，用美股总市值除以美国GDP得到的比率是175%，它就是我们今天要说的Warren buffet indicator 也就是巴菲特指标。这个指标可以很好的帮助我们判断股市风险大小，也一直以来就被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否被高估或低估。这一比率随着时间的推移而波动，因为股票市场的价值波动比较大，但GDP的增长往往更具可预测性。我们都知道，股市整个的增长其实和经济的增长必定是息息相关的。2001年，巴菲特在《财富》杂志的一篇文章中称赞了以他的名字命名的指标，他说“在任何时刻这个指标是衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>&nbsp;巴菲特认为如果比率小于50%，就代表股市被低估，在50-70%之间代表中度低估，在75-90%之间代表估值合理，但是如果高于115%，那就是OverValue，高估了。巴菲特表示“当这个比率在70%至80%之间，买入股票很可能会给你带去好的回报，但是如果这个指标接近200%，比如1999年以及2000年的部分时期，你就是在玩火。”<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;当该指标在2000年互联网泡沫前期创下历史高点(159.2%)时，也就是处于高估范\n \n","listText":"今天我们跟各位分享一个能评估整个股市估值的万能指标，这个指标它整合了宏观经济数据和整个美股市场公司的估值，我们就能推算出美股还能跌多少个百分比，底部具体在什么范围。除此以外，我还会给大家补充两个周期调整指标，阅读完一定能增长你的金融知识。Warren buffet indicator 巴菲特指标现在的美股总市值是43.7万亿美元，而美国GDP是25万亿美元，用美股总市值除以美国GDP得到的比率是175%，它就是我们今天要说的Warren buffet indicator 也就是巴菲特指标。这个指标可以很好的帮助我们判断股市风险大小，也一直以来就被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否被高估或低估。这一比率随着时间的推移而波动，因为股票市场的价值波动比较大，但GDP的增长往往更具可预测性。我们都知道，股市整个的增长其实和经济的增长必定是息息相关的。2001年，巴菲特在《财富》杂志的一篇文章中称赞了以他的名字命名的指标，他说“在任何时刻这个指标是衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>&nbsp;巴菲特认为如果比率小于50%，就代表股市被低估，在50-70%之间代表中度低估，在75-90%之间代表估值合理，但是如果高于115%，那就是OverValue，高估了。巴菲特表示“当这个比率在70%至80%之间，买入股票很可能会给你带去好的回报，但是如果这个指标接近200%，比如1999年以及2000年的部分时期，你就是在玩火。”<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>&nbsp;当该指标在2000年互联网泡沫前期创下历史高点(159.2%)时，也就是处于高估范","text":"今天我们跟各位分享一个能评估整个股市估值的万能指标，这个指标它整合了宏观经济数据和整个美股市场公司的估值，我们就能推算出美股还能跌多少个百分比，底部具体在什么范围。除此以外，我还会给大家补充两个周期调整指标，阅读完一定能增长你的金融知识。Warren buffet indicator 巴菲特指标现在的美股总市值是43.7万亿美元，而美国GDP是25万亿美元，用美股总市值除以美国GDP得到的比率是175%，它就是我们今天要说的Warren buffet indicator 也就是巴菲特指标。这个指标可以很好的帮助我们判断股市风险大小，也一直以来就被投资者和研究人士广泛用来衡量美股是否被高估或低估。这一比率随着时间的推移而波动，因为股票市场的价值波动比较大，但GDP的增长往往更具可预测性。我们都知道，股市整个的增长其实和经济的增长必定是息息相关的。2001年，巴菲特在《财富》杂志的一篇文章中称赞了以他的名字命名的指标，他说“在任何时刻这个指标是衡量估值水平的最佳单一指标”。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 巴菲特认为如果比率小于50%，就代表股市被低估，在50-70%之间代表中度低估，在75-90%之间代表估值合理，但是如果高于115%，那就是OverValue，高估了。巴菲特表示“当这个比率在70%至80%之间，买入股票很可能会给你带去好的回报，但是如果这个指标接近200%，比如1999年以及2000年的部分时期，你就是在玩火。”$标普500ETF(SPY)$ 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叫你们不要玩假股票了，要玩就玩真股票。假股票是把你们当韭菜的， 真股票是可以盈利。[开心]","listText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 叫你们不要玩假股票了，要玩就玩真股票。假股票是把你们当韭菜的， 真股票是可以盈利。[开心]","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 叫你们不要玩假股票了，要玩就玩真股票。假股票是把你们当韭菜的， 真股票是可以盈利。[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/902865715","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362423016796440,"gmtCreate":1729511417535,"gmtModify":1729511418966,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$&nbsp;</a> 3.02进3.06出，3.55进4.02出，3.5接回什么价格出？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YANG\">$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$&nbsp;</a> 3.02进3.06出，3.55进4.02出，3.5接回什么价格出？","text":"$三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion(YANG)$ 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会不会总市值跌到10万美元","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 会不会总市值跌到10万美元","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 会不会总市值跌到10万美元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281620394795024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4096467234857870","authorId":"4096467234857870","name":"安徽铭徽","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4096467234857870","authorIdStr":"4096467234857870"},"content":"放心，到不了那个位置就启动退市了，或者继续合股，","text":"放心，到不了那个位置就启动退市了，或者继续合股，","html":"放心，到不了那个位置就启动退市了，或者继续合股，"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":278986742505480,"gmtCreate":1709133410514,"gmtModify":1709136537518,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359976375591000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":990429018,"gmtCreate":1562763267134,"gmtModify":1704704237970,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990429018","repostId":"990469849","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":990469849,"gmtCreate":1562758868947,"gmtModify":1704704226564,"author":{"id":"3479274735268971","authorId":"3479274735268971","name":"点拾投资","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/189eb18dedae63fcaf90109b4d16d559","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479274735268971","authorIdStr":"3479274735268971"},"themes":[],"title":"用13句话告诉你查理芒格的投资智慧","htmlText":"文|点拾投资朱昂（微信号：dianshi830） 导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses andstay there. 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠预测的准确来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 芒格从来不是股市、经济","listText":"文|点拾投资朱昂（微信号：dianshi830） 导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses andstay there. 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠预测的准确来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 芒格从来不是股市、经济","text":"文|点拾投资朱昂（微信号：dianshi830） 导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses andstay there. 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠预测的准确来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 芒格从来不是股市、经济","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990469849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346869790736696,"gmtCreate":1725714417841,"gmtModify":1725714419815,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346869790736696","repostId":"338091336642832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338091336642832,"gmtCreate":1723560916661,"gmtModify":1723561581384,"author":{"id":"4138162702481440","authorId":"4138162702481440","name":"小金人塔尔塔洛斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74515f0769d195af6672e1b69924d581","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4138162702481440","authorIdStr":"4138162702481440"},"themes":[],"title":"VIX与标普500走势的探讨","htmlText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","listText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","text":"多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfbd8d69ce20754c487f0efc87ce6b94","width":"1066","height":"670"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c889733c4821e93460920cc81a21570","width":"756","height":"733"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c77a1aa51c5f36df18fb1cfe4f214","width":"1000","height":"737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338091336642832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":22,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308663584309536,"gmtCreate":1716385096085,"gmtModify":1716385097435,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"老虎不糊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb24874d5cc5fe36bdb32282423bb86","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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