若有所思771的个人主页 - 老虎社区

若有所思771

若有所思771

投资是细节与逻辑的美学

IP属地：浙江

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若有所思771

10-24

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 教科书般的左侧无底洞形态，买这个的莫非是第一天玩股票？

若有所思771

05-13

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 28年5到7月是猴年马月，能不能回补26块的缺口

若有所思771

2020-12-17

$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$请教下瑞幸可以重新上市吗？

若有所思771

2019-08-04

$老虎证券(TIGR)$马上要凑够5000积分兑换马克杯了，千万不要是福建小作坊出品的。期待下，不要让我失望[可爱]

若有所思771

2019-06-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 叫你们不要玩假股票了，要玩就玩真股票。假股票是把你们当韭菜的，真股票是可以盈利。[开心]

若有所思771

10-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 好经典的左侧无底洞形态，不愧是爱吃人的老虎

若有所思771

2020-12-08

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$今天又要补跌[无语]

若有所思771

10-14

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡

若有所思771

2019-07-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@点拾投资:用13句话告诉你查理芒格的投资智慧

若有所思771

12-12

盈利40多亿美元？

@空海有钱真好:我平仓了$苹果(AAPL)$ ,送的，卖了

若有所思771

09-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小金人塔尔塔洛斯:VIX与标普500走势的探讨

若有所思771

05-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 小猫和大牛，啥时候能大猫小牛？

若有所思771

05-14

Replying to @benjaminshi:留点钱交ADR//@benjaminshi:我重仓了那个5年再看

@光和影的旅行:$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 这个还有虎有家人吗？这波回调到底了没，能不能去10刀

若有所思771

04-06

我现在已经很少看盘了，熬夜会大度减少寿命

@杨帆1977:$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 耐心

若有所思771

04-02

典型庄股什么美联储不美联储，不知猴年马月可以补25块多的缺口

@贷款炒股达人侠:$老虎证券(TIGR)$难道也是要等美联储？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359976375591000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346869790736696,"gmtCreate":1725714417841,"gmtModify":1725714419815,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"若有所思771","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d284d52f95a32180e7366fddae155c7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3517201798371891","idStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346869790736696","repostId":"338091336642832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338091336642832,"gmtCreate":1723560916661,"gmtModify":1723561581384,"author":{"id":"4138162702481440","authorId":"4138162702481440","name":"小金人塔尔塔洛斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74515f0769d195af6672e1b69924d581","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4138162702481440","idStr":"4138162702481440"},"themes":[],"title":"VIX与标普500走势的探讨","htmlText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","listText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","text":"多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： 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导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses andstay there. 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠预测的准确来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 芒格从来不是股市、经济","listText":"文|点拾投资朱昂（微信号：dianshi830） 导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. 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教科书般的左侧无底洞形态，买这个的莫非是第一天玩股票？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8afb1b6b3e174cb51f930dc8b06cda2e","width":"1260","height":"2800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363466888249544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494285125388429","authorId":"3494285125388429","name":"Saraat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fd697144f3aab0355b28cc6f7d75e8e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3494285125388429","authorIdStr":"3494285125388429"},"content":"教科书就是写给韭菜看的，什么标准不标准，按着教科书来那岂不是都是股神了？k线之类都是滞后指标，都是结果，就比如你用彩票的结果推演晚上开奖，就是扯淡，形态？你要什么线给你做啥形态，看k线炒股的才是第一天玩股票的人要经历的第一个教训","text":"教科书就是写给韭菜看的，什么标准不标准，按着教科书来那岂不是都是股神了？k线之类都是滞后指标，都是结果，就比如你用彩票的结果推演晚上开奖，就是扯淡，形态？你要什么线给你做啥形态，看k线炒股的才是第一天玩股票的人要经历的第一个教训","html":"教科书就是写给韭菜看的，什么标准不标准，按着教科书来那岂不是都是股神了？k线之类都是滞后指标，都是结果，就比如你用彩票的结果推演晚上开奖，就是扯淡，形态？你要什么线给你做啥形态，看k线炒股的才是第一天玩股票的人要经历的第一个教训"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305479854235952,"gmtCreate":1715614681649,"gmtModify":1715614683045,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"若有所思771","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d284d52f95a32180e7366fddae155c7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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没有疯牛的价格就是2到4美元荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359976375591000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":990429018,"gmtCreate":1562763267134,"gmtModify":1704704237970,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"若有所思771","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d284d52f95a32180e7366fddae155c7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990429018","repostId":"990469849","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":990469849,"gmtCreate":1562758868947,"gmtModify":1704704226564,"author":{"id":"3479274735268971","authorId":"3479274735268971","name":"点拾投资","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/189eb18dedae63fcaf90109b4d16d559","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479274735268971","authorIdStr":"3479274735268971"},"themes":[],"title":"用13句话告诉你查理芒格的投资智慧","htmlText":"文|点拾投资朱昂（微信号：dianshi830） 导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses andstay there. 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠预测的准确来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 芒格从来不是股市、经济","listText":"文|点拾投资朱昂（微信号：dianshi830） 导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses andstay there. 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠预测的准确来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 芒格从来不是股市、经济","text":"文|点拾投资朱昂（微信号：dianshi830） 导读：在投资领域，查理.芒格并非最富有的那个人。作为巴菲特一生的合伙人，查理.芒格的身价只有“区区的”18亿美元，远远不如许多对冲基金的创始人。但是查理.芒格对于价值的理解极其深刻，这个价值不仅仅体现在投资，还体现在人生。 巴菲特关于查理.芒格有两个极高的评价。第一，巴菲特说查理.芒格让他以火箭般的速度从猩猩进化到人类（I evolved from an orangutan to humans at an unusual rate）。第二，巴菲特说，芒格设计了今天的伯克希尔哈撒韦，他给巴菲特一个重要的蓝图：用合理的价格投资一家优秀企业，比以便宜的价格买入一家普通企业的结果要好得多。 芒格和巴菲特就读于同一所小学和中学，但是由于年龄比巴菲特大了7岁，他们要到1959年，芒格35岁的时候才第一次相遇。也要到1979年芒格出任伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长后，两人才算真正的合伙。芒格很长时间来一直是巴菲特“背后的那个男人”，直到过去十几年才逐渐被世人发现他的巨大智慧。 今天和大家分享的是查理.芒格一些普世的投资智慧。 1.Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean. 跟随羊群只会让你更接近平均收益。 芒格告诉我们，在投资中随大流，那么只能获得平均的回报。但是逆大流，又总是极其困难的。 2.I've never been able to predict accurately. I don't make money predicting accurately. We just tend to get into good businesses andstay there. 预测从来不是我的强项，而且我也不依靠预测的准确来赚钱。我们往往只是买入好的公司，并一直持有。 芒格从来不是股市、经济","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990469849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380602712568408,"gmtCreate":1733964656539,"gmtModify":1733964658298,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"若有所思771","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d284d52f95a32180e7366fddae155c7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"盈利40多亿美元？","listText":"盈利40多亿美元？","text":"盈利40多亿美元？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380602712568408","repostId":"380097561461320","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":380097561461320,"gmtCreate":1733841172576,"gmtModify":1734504552521,"author":{"id":"3576583631514648","authorId":"3576583631514648","name":"空海有钱真好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/153a54b17a2e932981fd61890b8b0501","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576583631514648","authorIdStr":"3576583631514648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>,送的，卖了","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$&nbsp;</a>,送的，卖了","text":"我平仓了$苹果(AAPL)$ ,送的，卖了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380097561461320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346869790736696,"gmtCreate":1725714417841,"gmtModify":1725714419815,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"若有所思771","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d284d52f95a32180e7366fddae155c7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346869790736696","repostId":"338091336642832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":338091336642832,"gmtCreate":1723560916661,"gmtModify":1723561581384,"author":{"id":"4138162702481440","authorId":"4138162702481440","name":"小金人塔尔塔洛斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74515f0769d195af6672e1b69924d581","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4138162702481440","authorIdStr":"4138162702481440"},"themes":[],"title":"VIX与标普500走势的探讨","htmlText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","listText":"&nbsp; 多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 &nbsp; 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 &nbsp; 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： &nbsp; 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 &nbsp; 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","text":"多看多思考，以史为鉴。历史不会简单重复，但也不会“这次不一样”。 近期美股惨烈调整后企稳反弹，叠加VIX指数回落，经济数据回暖等因素，华尔街和投资者都在热议：美股现在情况如何？真的见底了吗？笔者之前从基本面等角度阐述了我为什么认为美股尚未见底的原因，今天我想从VIX的波动，标普500指数的形态历史上说说我认为美股尚未探底的更多理由。 自1993年VIX推出以来，笔者能考察到的该指数跳涨到45或者更高水平的有以下几次，然后标普500指数的底部形态也大致分为几类，现试简单归纳如下： 1.1997年10月亚洲金融风暴，当时由于索罗斯等做空HK，导致全球金融系统风险传导，美股也遭到牵连，10月27日，道指跌超7%，触发了美股史上第一次熔断（当时美股熔断标的指数为道指），标普500指数也跌近7%，但届时美联储并无反应，克林顿也只简单表示股市可能令人失望，无其他表述，第二天美股拉出下影线后反弹，标普涨超5%，随后继续上涨，这里VIX月线上一阳指后回落，而标普为单针探底的走势，此后深V新高。当然，当时美股并无太大系统性风险，互联网革命正在繁荣期——不过泡沫期很快要到了。 图片 图片 2.1998年8月俄罗斯主权信用债危机，这也是史上首次主权国家信用债违约事件，卢布大跌，全球市场大震荡，美股也下行，当月标普500指数下跌超14.5%，VIX大涨到45的位置，9月美股艰难反弹，9月中下旬美联储宣布降息25bp；10月初美股再度下行，标普500指数跌破前低，VIX指数逼近50大关，此后市场自发再次抄底，标普在10月8日见底后反弹，而由于各种风险纠缠，美联储在10月15日紧急降息25bp，也算是预防式降息了，当日标普大涨，此后互联网泡沫进入飙车阶段，有人认为，美联储助长了这一泡沫，不难发现历史上的泡沫（包括咆哮的20年代）都和","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfbd8d69ce20754c487f0efc87ce6b94","width":"1066","height":"670"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c889733c4821e93460920cc81a21570","width":"756","height":"733"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139c77a1aa51c5f36df18fb1cfe4f214","width":"1000","height":"737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338091336642832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":22,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308663584309536,"gmtCreate":1716385096085,"gmtModify":1716385097435,"author":{"id":"3517201798371891","authorId":"3517201798371891","name":"若有所思771","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d284d52f95a32180e7366fddae155c7","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517201798371891","authorIdStr":"3517201798371891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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这个还有虎有家人吗？这波回调到底了没，能不能去10刀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a> 这个还有虎有家人吗？这波回调到底了没，能不能去10刀","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 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