蚊子的倩影的个人主页 - 老虎社区

蚊子的倩影

蚊子的倩影

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IP属地：吉林

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蚊子的倩影

2021-10-20

$PayPal(PYPL)$为啥收购股价会跌，不好的话不收购不就可以吗

蚊子的倩影

2021-03-30

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$请问中概股会被退市吗？

蚊子的倩影

2021-03-30

$京东(JD)$ $苹果(AAPL)$nnvda 问下各位中概股会被退市吗？$标普500ETF(SPY)$n

蚊子的倩影

2021-02-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@谋定后动:【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】“薅机构的羊毛”（1月篇）

蚊子的倩影

2021-01-07

$标普500ETF(SPY)$磕药了

蚊子的倩影

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$期权可以盘前盘后交易的话会怎么样？

蚊子的倩影

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我去前所未见，这合法吗

蚊子的倩影

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ Wc

蚊子的倩影

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$wo ni ma

蚊子的倩影

2020-11-05

写的太牛了

@互联网怪盗团:可悲的民调，到底错在了哪里？

蚊子的倩影

2020-11-04

$标普500ETF(SPY)$期货涨疯了，t赢了

蚊子的倩影

2020-08-26

$拼多多(PDD)$只是一个电子商务平台完全靠低价竞争，像美团滴滴一样只是整合了资源，这样的企业以后怎么办？

蚊子的倩影

2020-03-10

$标普500ETF(SPY)$能交易了？

蚊子的倩影

2020-03-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$现在能交易了吗

蚊子的倩影

2019-12-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$亏死！准备不做了，

蚊子的倩影

2019-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$为什么我买了就要降？？

蚊子的倩影

2019-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这周要到420

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/339176676\" target=\"_blank\">“以时间换取空间”，稳定月入一万美元的期权实战策略</a>，获得了虎友们的热烈捧场，第一天的阅读量就破2万，一度冲上了老虎社区当周的热榜第三名[龇牙]&nbsp;。很多虎友给了我很有价值的留言，有的善意地提醒我这个策略里的风险控制问题，有的指正了我概念上的错误，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/740450932848\">@33_Tiger</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3553549596086527\">@小白韭</a>&nbsp;还打赏了虎币。在此，我向各位点赞转发关注留言打赏的虎友们一一谢过了[抱拳]&nbsp;。这个期权策略其实我仍然在不断的摸索和打磨中，希望能不断完善，从而给我带来稳定的收入。多听听各位虎友的意见也是我学习的途径之一。我准备以后每个月的最后一天都发表这样一份月度总结，公开我运用这个策略的操作和持仓，分享我的感受和领悟，希望借此机会和各位虎友共同进步，一起赚钱[美金]&nbsp;&nbsp;。期权策略概述策略名称: 裸卖看跌期权（Naked Put Selling）账户本金： 30万美元标的正股： 特斯拉、英伟达、微软、苹果、Paypal、Facebook行权价： 对于特斯拉，选择当前股价减去20%以上的行权价，其他股票选减去10%以上的行权价。行权日期：3个星期以上建仓规律：每个正股每个星期最多卖出一次。遇到大的跌幅卖出较远期（6-12个星期）的期权，横盘整理时卖出较短期（3-6个星期）的期权，大涨的时候卧倒不动。简单地说，这个策略就是选好标的以后，卖出一个深度虚值的看跌期权，然后等待","listText":"我的上一篇拙文<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/339176676\" target=\"_blank\">“以时间换取空间”，稳定月入一万美元的期权实战策略</a>，获得了虎友们的热烈捧场，第一天的阅读量就破2万，一度冲上了老虎社区当周的热榜第三名[龇牙]&nbsp;。很多虎友给了我很有价值的留言，有的善意地提醒我这个策略里的风险控制问题，有的指正了我概念上的错误，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/740450932848\">@33_Tiger</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3553549596086527\">@小白韭</a>&nbsp;还打赏了虎币。在此，我向各位点赞转发关注留言打赏的虎友们一一谢过了[抱拳]&nbsp;。这个期权策略其实我仍然在不断的摸索和打磨中，希望能不断完善，从而给我带来稳定的收入。多听听各位虎友的意见也是我学习的途径之一。我准备以后每个月的最后一天都发表这样一份月度总结，公开我运用这个策略的操作和持仓，分享我的感受和领悟，希望借此机会和各位虎友共同进步，一起赚钱[美金]&nbsp;&nbsp;。期权策略概述策略名称: 裸卖看跌期权（Naked Put Selling）账户本金： 30万美元标的正股： 特斯拉、英伟达、微软、苹果、Paypal、Facebook行权价： 对于特斯拉，选择当前股价减去20%以上的行权价，其他股票选减去10%以上的行权价。行权日期：3个星期以上建仓规律：每个正股每个星期最多卖出一次。遇到大的跌幅卖出较远期（6-12个星期）的期权，横盘整理时卖出较短期（3-6个星期）的期权，大涨的时候卧倒不动。简单地说，这个策略就是选好标的以后，卖出一个深度虚值的看跌期权，然后等待","text":"我的上一篇拙文“以时间换取空间”，稳定月入一万美元的期权实战策略，获得了虎友们的热烈捧场，第一天的阅读量就破2万，一度冲上了老虎社区当周的热榜第三名[龇牙] 。很多虎友给了我很有价值的留言，有的善意地提醒我这个策略里的风险控制问题，有的指正了我概念上的错误，@33_Tiger @小白韭 还打赏了虎币。在此，我向各位点赞转发关注留言打赏的虎友们一一谢过了[抱拳] 。这个期权策略其实我仍然在不断的摸索和打磨中，希望能不断完善，从而给我带来稳定的收入。多听听各位虎友的意见也是我学习的途径之一。我准备以后每个月的最后一天都发表这样一份月度总结，公开我运用这个策略的操作和持仓，分享我的感受和领悟，希望借此机会和各位虎友共同进步，一起赚钱[美金] 。期权策略概述策略名称: 裸卖看跌期权（Naked Put Selling）账户本金： 30万美元标的正股： 特斯拉、英伟达、微软、苹果、Paypal、Facebook行权价： 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我去前所未见，这合法吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397448830","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397449189,"gmtCreate":1608324739641,"gmtModify":1703852496438,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> Wc","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> Wc","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ Wc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397449189","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397440244,"gmtCreate":1608324701588,"gmtModify":1703852495227,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>wo ni ma","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>wo ni ma","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$wo ni ma","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397440244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302966097,"gmtCreate":1604515648819,"gmtModify":1703833590339,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写的太牛了","listText":"写的太牛了","text":"写的太牛了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302966097","repostId":"302050172","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":302050172,"gmtCreate":1604501376069,"gmtModify":1703833476878,"author":{"id":"3527667638457531","authorId":"3527667638457531","name":"互联网怪盗团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/887d4a1db5c87bb18e811a63bbad5e18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"可悲的民调，到底错在了哪里？","htmlText":"无论拜登能不能依靠邮寄选票实现翻盘、从而赢得大选（这种情况大概会是2000年重演），2020年大选的民调机构都会被钉在历史的耻辱柱上，供后世耻笑。 大选前的最后一组民调显示：拜登在全国层面领先大约8个百分点，在战场州领先大约3个百分点。现在，无论战场州的结果如何，全国形势已经很明朗了：懂王仅仅落后1.6个百分点，与四年前相仿。高达6个百分点的错判，简直是不可饶恕的错误。 我们无需指出民调在部分战场州错的有多离谱——认为拜登在得克萨斯只落后2个百分点（导致他错误地在此投入大量资源）；认为懂王在俄亥俄与拜登是五五开（其实懂王干脆利落地赢了8个百分点）；认为拜登在铁锈地带的优势很稳固（其实三个州都处于胶着状态）…… 总而言之，这是一次民调失败的总记录，甚至比四年前的失败还彻底。四年前，民调机构还可以归咎于“十一月惊奇”（FBI重启邮件门调查），而今年没有这种惊奇了。过去四年，媒体和民调机构一直在反思自己的错误、改进民调取样方式，事实证明这一切都毫无作用；或许有副作用？ 当然，懂王还没有赢得选举。拜登完全有可能后来居上，依靠邮寄选票险胜。但是，即便如此，民调还是彻头彻尾地错了，因为他们期待的是一场“蓝色巨浪”。某些愚蠢的媒体甚至讨论过拜登能不能复制里根在1984年创造的奇迹，把懂王的铁票统统翻过来。想多了。 &nbsp;&nbsp; 538预测拜登的胜率高达89%，显然是严重高估了 千言万语，万语千言：民调不靠谱，谁信民调谁就傻了。那么，民调到底错在哪里了呢？换句话说，民调机构究竟应该如何改变，才能避免再次被羞辱呢？ 对于这个问题，本怪盗团团长比较有发言权，因为我做过很多草根调研，其中既有成功的，也有失败的。让我印象最深刻的一场失败发生在四年多以前，恰恰是懂王第一次选举前三个月。当时我就职于某外资投行（名字就不点了），往返于北京和香港之间，看着一大堆靠谱或不靠谱的A股+港股小股票","listText":"无论拜登能不能依靠邮寄选票实现翻盘、从而赢得大选（这种情况大概会是2000年重演），2020年大选的民调机构都会被钉在历史的耻辱柱上，供后世耻笑。 大选前的最后一组民调显示：拜登在全国层面领先大约8个百分点，在战场州领先大约3个百分点。现在，无论战场州的结果如何，全国形势已经很明朗了：懂王仅仅落后1.6个百分点，与四年前相仿。高达6个百分点的错判，简直是不可饶恕的错误。 我们无需指出民调在部分战场州错的有多离谱——认为拜登在得克萨斯只落后2个百分点（导致他错误地在此投入大量资源）；认为懂王在俄亥俄与拜登是五五开（其实懂王干脆利落地赢了8个百分点）；认为拜登在铁锈地带的优势很稳固（其实三个州都处于胶着状态）…… 总而言之，这是一次民调失败的总记录，甚至比四年前的失败还彻底。四年前，民调机构还可以归咎于“十一月惊奇”（FBI重启邮件门调查），而今年没有这种惊奇了。过去四年，媒体和民调机构一直在反思自己的错误、改进民调取样方式，事实证明这一切都毫无作用；或许有副作用？ 当然，懂王还没有赢得选举。拜登完全有可能后来居上，依靠邮寄选票险胜。但是，即便如此，民调还是彻头彻尾地错了，因为他们期待的是一场“蓝色巨浪”。某些愚蠢的媒体甚至讨论过拜登能不能复制里根在1984年创造的奇迹，把懂王的铁票统统翻过来。想多了。 &nbsp;&nbsp; 538预测拜登的胜率高达89%，显然是严重高估了 千言万语，万语千言：民调不靠谱，谁信民调谁就傻了。那么，民调到底错在哪里了呢？换句话说，民调机构究竟应该如何改变，才能避免再次被羞辱呢？ 对于这个问题，本怪盗团团长比较有发言权，因为我做过很多草根调研，其中既有成功的，也有失败的。让我印象最深刻的一场失败发生在四年多以前，恰恰是懂王第一次选举前三个月。当时我就职于某外资投行（名字就不点了），往返于北京和香港之间，看着一大堆靠谱或不靠谱的A股+港股小股票","text":"无论拜登能不能依靠邮寄选票实现翻盘、从而赢得大选（这种情况大概会是2000年重演），2020年大选的民调机构都会被钉在历史的耻辱柱上，供后世耻笑。 大选前的最后一组民调显示：拜登在全国层面领先大约8个百分点，在战场州领先大约3个百分点。现在，无论战场州的结果如何，全国形势已经很明朗了：懂王仅仅落后1.6个百分点，与四年前相仿。高达6个百分点的错判，简直是不可饶恕的错误。 我们无需指出民调在部分战场州错的有多离谱——认为拜登在得克萨斯只落后2个百分点（导致他错误地在此投入大量资源）；认为懂王在俄亥俄与拜登是五五开（其实懂王干脆利落地赢了8个百分点）；认为拜登在铁锈地带的优势很稳固（其实三个州都处于胶着状态）…… 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target=\"_blank\">“以时间换取空间”，稳定月入一万美元的期权实战策略</a>，获得了虎友们的热烈捧场，第一天的阅读量就破2万，一度冲上了老虎社区当周的热榜第三名[龇牙]&nbsp;。很多虎友给了我很有价值的留言，有的善意地提醒我这个策略里的风险控制问题，有的指正了我概念上的错误，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/740450932848\">@33_Tiger</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3553549596086527\">@小白韭</a>&nbsp;还打赏了虎币。在此，我向各位点赞转发关注留言打赏的虎友们一一谢过了[抱拳]&nbsp;。这个期权策略其实我仍然在不断的摸索和打磨中，希望能不断完善，从而给我带来稳定的收入。多听听各位虎友的意见也是我学习的途径之一。我准备以后每个月的最后一天都发表这样一份月度总结，公开我运用这个策略的操作和持仓，分享我的感受和领悟，希望借此机会和各位虎友共同进步，一起赚钱[美金]&nbsp;&nbsp;。期权策略概述策略名称: 裸卖看跌期权（Naked Put Selling）账户本金： 30万美元标的正股： 特斯拉、英伟达、微软、苹果、Paypal、Facebook行权价： 对于特斯拉，选择当前股价减去20%以上的行权价，其他股票选减去10%以上的行权价。行权日期：3个星期以上建仓规律：每个正股每个星期最多卖出一次。遇到大的跌幅卖出较远期（6-12个星期）的期权，横盘整理时卖出较短期（3-6个星期）的期权，大涨的时候卧倒不动。简单地说，这个策略就是选好标的以后，卖出一个深度虚值的看跌期权，然后等待","text":"我的上一篇拙文“以时间换取空间”，稳定月入一万美元的期权实战策略，获得了虎友们的热烈捧场，第一天的阅读量就破2万，一度冲上了老虎社区当周的热榜第三名[龇牙] 。很多虎友给了我很有价值的留言，有的善意地提醒我这个策略里的风险控制问题，有的指正了我概念上的错误，@33_Tiger @小白韭 还打赏了虎币。在此，我向各位点赞转发关注留言打赏的虎友们一一谢过了[抱拳] 。这个期权策略其实我仍然在不断的摸索和打磨中，希望能不断完善，从而给我带来稳定的收入。多听听各位虎友的意见也是我学习的途径之一。我准备以后每个月的最后一天都发表这样一份月度总结，公开我运用这个策略的操作和持仓，分享我的感受和领悟，希望借此机会和各位虎友共同进步，一起赚钱[美金] 。期权策略概述策略名称: 裸卖看跌期权（Naked Put Selling）账户本金： 30万美元标的正股： 特斯拉、英伟达、微软、苹果、Paypal、Facebook行权价： 对于特斯拉，选择当前股价减去20%以上的行权价，其他股票选减去10%以上的行权价。行权日期：3个星期以上建仓规律：每个正股每个星期最多卖出一次。遇到大的跌幅卖出较远期（6-12个星期）的期权，横盘整理时卖出较短期（3-6个星期）的期权，大涨的时候卧倒不动。简单地说，这个策略就是选好标的以后，卖出一个深度虚值的看跌期权，然后等待","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6a121d3df3a3b84ea9986d4f1e7e1b7","width":"1600","height":"1200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312018811","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338454893,"gmtCreate":1609949459212,"gmtModify":1703741627423,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>磕药了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>磕药了","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$磕药了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338454893","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397739767,"gmtCreate":1608340526459,"gmtModify":1703734800135,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>期权可以盘前盘后交易的话会怎么样？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>期权可以盘前盘后交易的话会怎么样？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$期权可以盘前盘后交易的话会怎么样？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397739767","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397449189,"gmtCreate":1608324739641,"gmtModify":1703852496438,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> Wc","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> Wc","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ Wc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397449189","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397440244,"gmtCreate":1608324701588,"gmtModify":1703852495227,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>wo ni ma","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>wo ni ma","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$wo ni ma","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397440244","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302966097,"gmtCreate":1604515648819,"gmtModify":1703833590339,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写的太牛了","listText":"写的太牛了","text":"写的太牛了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302966097","repostId":"302050172","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":302050172,"gmtCreate":1604501376069,"gmtModify":1703833476878,"author":{"id":"3527667638457531","authorId":"3527667638457531","name":"互联网怪盗团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/887d4a1db5c87bb18e811a63bbad5e18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"可悲的民调，到底错在了哪里？","htmlText":"无论拜登能不能依靠邮寄选票实现翻盘、从而赢得大选（这种情况大概会是2000年重演），2020年大选的民调机构都会被钉在历史的耻辱柱上，供后世耻笑。 大选前的最后一组民调显示：拜登在全国层面领先大约8个百分点，在战场州领先大约3个百分点。现在，无论战场州的结果如何，全国形势已经很明朗了：懂王仅仅落后1.6个百分点，与四年前相仿。高达6个百分点的错判，简直是不可饶恕的错误。 我们无需指出民调在部分战场州错的有多离谱——认为拜登在得克萨斯只落后2个百分点（导致他错误地在此投入大量资源）；认为懂王在俄亥俄与拜登是五五开（其实懂王干脆利落地赢了8个百分点）；认为拜登在铁锈地带的优势很稳固（其实三个州都处于胶着状态）…… 总而言之，这是一次民调失败的总记录，甚至比四年前的失败还彻底。四年前，民调机构还可以归咎于“十一月惊奇”（FBI重启邮件门调查），而今年没有这种惊奇了。过去四年，媒体和民调机构一直在反思自己的错误、改进民调取样方式，事实证明这一切都毫无作用；或许有副作用？ 当然，懂王还没有赢得选举。拜登完全有可能后来居上，依靠邮寄选票险胜。但是，即便如此，民调还是彻头彻尾地错了，因为他们期待的是一场“蓝色巨浪”。某些愚蠢的媒体甚至讨论过拜登能不能复制里根在1984年创造的奇迹，把懂王的铁票统统翻过来。想多了。 &nbsp;&nbsp; 538预测拜登的胜率高达89%，显然是严重高估了 千言万语，万语千言：民调不靠谱，谁信民调谁就傻了。那么，民调到底错在哪里了呢？换句话说，民调机构究竟应该如何改变，才能避免再次被羞辱呢？ 对于这个问题，本怪盗团团长比较有发言权，因为我做过很多草根调研，其中既有成功的，也有失败的。让我印象最深刻的一场失败发生在四年多以前，恰恰是懂王第一次选举前三个月。当时我就职于某外资投行（名字就不点了），往返于北京和香港之间，看着一大堆靠谱或不靠谱的A股+港股小股票","listText":"无论拜登能不能依靠邮寄选票实现翻盘、从而赢得大选（这种情况大概会是2000年重演），2020年大选的民调机构都会被钉在历史的耻辱柱上，供后世耻笑。 大选前的最后一组民调显示：拜登在全国层面领先大约8个百分点，在战场州领先大约3个百分点。现在，无论战场州的结果如何，全国形势已经很明朗了：懂王仅仅落后1.6个百分点，与四年前相仿。高达6个百分点的错判，简直是不可饶恕的错误。 我们无需指出民调在部分战场州错的有多离谱——认为拜登在得克萨斯只落后2个百分点（导致他错误地在此投入大量资源）；认为懂王在俄亥俄与拜登是五五开（其实懂王干脆利落地赢了8个百分点）；认为拜登在铁锈地带的优势很稳固（其实三个州都处于胶着状态）…… 总而言之，这是一次民调失败的总记录，甚至比四年前的失败还彻底。四年前，民调机构还可以归咎于“十一月惊奇”（FBI重启邮件门调查），而今年没有这种惊奇了。过去四年，媒体和民调机构一直在反思自己的错误、改进民调取样方式，事实证明这一切都毫无作用；或许有副作用？ 当然，懂王还没有赢得选举。拜登完全有可能后来居上，依靠邮寄选票险胜。但是，即便如此，民调还是彻头彻尾地错了，因为他们期待的是一场“蓝色巨浪”。某些愚蠢的媒体甚至讨论过拜登能不能复制里根在1984年创造的奇迹，把懂王的铁票统统翻过来。想多了。 &nbsp;&nbsp; 538预测拜登的胜率高达89%，显然是严重高估了 千言万语，万语千言：民调不靠谱，谁信民调谁就傻了。那么，民调到底错在哪里了呢？换句话说，民调机构究竟应该如何改变，才能避免再次被羞辱呢？ 对于这个问题，本怪盗团团长比较有发言权，因为我做过很多草根调研，其中既有成功的，也有失败的。让我印象最深刻的一场失败发生在四年多以前，恰恰是懂王第一次选举前三个月。当时我就职于某外资投行（名字就不点了），往返于北京和香港之间，看着一大堆靠谱或不靠谱的A股+港股小股票","text":"无论拜登能不能依靠邮寄选票实现翻盘、从而赢得大选（这种情况大概会是2000年重演），2020年大选的民调机构都会被钉在历史的耻辱柱上，供后世耻笑。 大选前的最后一组民调显示：拜登在全国层面领先大约8个百分点，在战场州领先大约3个百分点。现在，无论战场州的结果如何，全国形势已经很明朗了：懂王仅仅落后1.6个百分点，与四年前相仿。高达6个百分点的错判，简直是不可饶恕的错误。 我们无需指出民调在部分战场州错的有多离谱——认为拜登在得克萨斯只落后2个百分点（导致他错误地在此投入大量资源）；认为懂王在俄亥俄与拜登是五五开（其实懂王干脆利落地赢了8个百分点）；认为拜登在铁锈地带的优势很稳固（其实三个州都处于胶着状态）…… 总而言之，这是一次民调失败的总记录，甚至比四年前的失败还彻底。四年前，民调机构还可以归咎于“十一月惊奇”（FBI重启邮件门调查），而今年没有这种惊奇了。过去四年，媒体和民调机构一直在反思自己的错误、改进民调取样方式，事实证明这一切都毫无作用；或许有副作用？ 当然，懂王还没有赢得选举。拜登完全有可能后来居上，依靠邮寄选票险胜。但是，即便如此，民调还是彻头彻尾地错了，因为他们期待的是一场“蓝色巨浪”。某些愚蠢的媒体甚至讨论过拜登能不能复制里根在1984年创造的奇迹，把懂王的铁票统统翻过来。想多了。 538预测拜登的胜率高达89%，显然是严重高估了 千言万语，万语千言：民调不靠谱，谁信民调谁就傻了。那么，民调到底错在哪里了呢？换句话说，民调机构究竟应该如何改变，才能避免再次被羞辱呢？ 对于这个问题，本怪盗团团长比较有发言权，因为我做过很多草根调研，其中既有成功的，也有失败的。让我印象最深刻的一场失败发生在四年多以前，恰恰是懂王第一次选举前三个月。当时我就职于某外资投行（名字就不点了），往返于北京和香港之间，看着一大堆靠谱或不靠谱的A股+港股小股票","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387272c532054066b28247697a45f665"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8908e23c64fe43809ab16009adec7e9f"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40665a01c7ae49edb951b69aec1fd122"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302050172","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306447551,"gmtCreate":1604459799173,"gmtModify":1703833226572,"author":{"id":"3515668592526498","authorId":"3515668592526498","name":"蚊子的倩影","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becdc90004b3daf4d4605fc60ec255fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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