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大千世界_4664

大千世界_4664

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大千世界_4664

2019-11-12

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 现在可以重仓进场

大千世界_4664

2019-11-12

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 2倍先跌后涨

大千世界_4664

2021-05-21

不要上马斯克的圈套

“币圈教父”马斯克又发话了：审计可能解决比特币能耗过高担忧不卖狗狗币

大千世界_4664

2021-05-20

与比特币相关的个股，越早清盘越好，未来绝对是废币。反弹是机会而不是反转，别混乱了自己。

抱歉，原内容已删除

大千世界_4664

2021-04-28

$InspireMD Inc.(NSPR)$这只票昨晚受骗人很多

大千世界_4664

2019-11-13

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 涨

大千世界_4664

2021-08-06

$好未来(TAL)$好未来业绩好。龙头股，将要重组。

大千世界_4664

2021-08-04

$鑫达集团(CXDC)$要回购了

大千世界_4664

2021-04-28

$InspireMD Inc.(NSPR)$昨天盘前买进100不算，把100股卖了有，变成了亏钱。是怎么回事。哪老大能解说

大千世界_4664

2019-11-13

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 2信现在进

大千世界_4664

2019-11-12

2倍现在可以重仓进

@大千世界_4664:$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 2倍先跌后涨

大千世界_4664

2020-03-02

美股民间高手出场免费助力，好运高照人间！

大千世界_4664

2020-03-02

好

抱歉，原内容已删除

大千世界_4664

2020-03-02

周一港股低开高走，美股高开高走，大千世界免费助力你好运高照

美股大跌之下港股能走出独立行情吗？

大千世界_4664

2019-11-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里现在是回调期，等下20分后重新再下

大千世界_4664

2019-11-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里向下大

大千世界_4664

2019-11-12

美元在危险中扶梯子

大千世界_4664

2019-11-12

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 美元在危险中强扶梯

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>用户有关加密货币挖矿理想能耗的问题时暗示，即便是他偏爱的狗狗币也仍有一些进步空间，并表示他赞成每笔交易消耗0.1千瓦时的比率。</p>\n<p>　　同日，马斯克继续力挺狗狗币，称他没有卖出，也不会卖出任何狗狗币。</p>\n<p>　　周四，比特币在5月19日超过30%的暴跌之后，曾出现超过40%的反弹，并一度收复4.2万美元。以太币5月19日的跌幅超过40%，今日曾回升至3000美元附近，较日低回升约1000美元。然而美东时间中午，美国财政部称将收紧对加密货币市场和交易的税务监管，表示将要求单笔等值1万美元以上的加密货币交易必须上报至国税局。消息公布之后，加密货币市场短线迅速回落，比特币失守4万美元，以太币回落约10%。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：张玉洁 SF107</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“币圈教父”马斯克又发话了：审计可能解决比特币能耗过高担忧 不卖狗狗币</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/gjcj/2021-05-21/doc-ikmyaawc6571854.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2e0725ece1c0521e645686ab640440","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","CAN":"嘉楠科技","EBON":"亿邦国际"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/gjcj/2021-05-21/doc-ikmyaawc6571854.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2137754976","content_text":"来源：华尔街见闻\n\n特斯拉CEO马斯克认为，对大型比特币挖矿使用可再生能源情况进行审计可能有助于缓解有关加密货币环境影响的担忧。马斯克还暗示，即便是他偏爱的狗狗币也仍有一些进步空间，赞成每笔交易消耗0.1千瓦时的比率。\n\n　　特斯拉CEO马斯克认为，对大型比特币挖矿使用可再生能源情况进行审计可能有助于缓解有关加密货币环境影响的担忧。马斯克还暗示，即便是他偏爱的狗狗币也仍有一些进步空间，赞成每笔交易消耗0.1千瓦时的比率。\n　　马斯克在回应Ark研究主管Brett Winton关于比特币挖矿可能促进太阳能和电池系统更广泛使用的问题时表示：“近期（挖矿）能耗的极端增长可能不会在可再生能源的帮助下迅速降低。如果排名前10的挖矿组织公布经审计的可再生能源消耗，这个问题就容易解决。”\n　　马斯克在回应另一位Twitter用户有关加密货币挖矿理想能耗的问题时暗示，即便是他偏爱的狗狗币也仍有一些进步空间，并表示他赞成每笔交易消耗0.1千瓦时的比率。\n　　同日，马斯克继续力挺狗狗币，称他没有卖出，也不会卖出任何狗狗币。\n　　周四，比特币在5月19日超过30%的暴跌之后，曾出现超过40%的反弹，并一度收复4.2万美元。以太币5月19日的跌幅超过40%，今日曾回升至3000美元附近，较日低回升约1000美元。然而美东时间中午，美国财政部称将收紧对加密货币市场和交易的税务监管，表示将要求单笔等值1万美元以上的加密货币交易必须上报至国税局。消息公布之后，加密货币市场短线迅速回落，比特币失守4万美元，以太币回落约10%。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：张玉洁 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21:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股大跌之下 港股能走出独立行情吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2016332611","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美股大跌与港股：暂难脱钩，调整各异。","content":"<html><body><article>\n<p><strong>本文来自 微信公众号“广发港股策略”，作者为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>分析师廖凌、朱国源。</strong></p><p><strong>报告摘要</strong></p><p><strong>港股策略周论：美股大跌与港股：暂难脱钩，调整各异</strong></p><p>历史上美股不同下跌情形对港股影响有何差异?当前港股是否满足“脱钩”条件?本期策论我们就以上话题进行剖析。美股“危机式下跌”与“技术性调整”，港股表现各异。</p><p>1990年以来，无论美股下跌幅度如何，港股均出现阶段性回撤。美股“危机式下跌”期间，港股最大跌幅往往高于美股，而美股“技术性调整”期间，港股跌幅还受其它因素影响，与美股跌幅相比差异较大。</p><p>行业层面，美股跌幅差异不影响港股行业表现规律，必需消费(食品饮料、零售、家庭与个人用品)、公用事业、电信服务等板块多跑赢。从下跌后影响看，美股与港股的共性规律在于，只要不出现2000年“科网泡沫”破裂、2008年全球金融危机等崩盘式下跌，市场从底部修复至下跌前高位不会经历太长时间。</p><p>港股如何“独善其身”，目前满足“脱钩”条件吗?我们注意到港股并非时刻跟随美股下跌节奏，在1998年、2000年、2002年、2008年、2018年，港股曾阶段性走出“独立行情”。</p><p>宏观背景上，港股要实现“脱钩”需满足“人民币偏稳、美元偏弱、基本面偏强”等条件。但短期来看，港股还不具备“独立”的条件，制约因素来自“强美元、弱人民币”、以及基本面下行压力。</p><p>投资策略：短线压力延续，但关注港股长线结构机遇。短期市场不确定性可能增加，关注部分“公共卫生事件不敏感”行业，<strong>如医药、软件服务、半导体、高股息个股</strong>等;以及部分估值安全边际较高，同时受逆周期对冲政策直接刺激的行业，<strong>如地产股、汽车股</strong>。</p><p>● \n市场概览与情绪跟踪</p><p>本周(2.24-2.28)恒生指数下跌4.32%，板块方面，恒生一级行业全部下跌，能源业跌幅最大，地产建筑业相对抗跌。HVIX指数、港股看跌看涨期权比例、主板沽空比例均明显上升。</p><p>● 宏观流动性与估值跟踪</p><p>本周(2.24-2.28)人民币汇率波动较小，10年期美债收益率大幅下跌至1.13%，中美利差走阔至161BP。WTI原油价格大幅下跌至44.8美元/桶。恒生指数PE \n9.76倍，低于历史均值。</p><p>● 一致预期EPS跟踪本周(2.24-2.28)媒体对于恒生指数与国企指数20年EPS增速一致预期下调。</p><p>● 南下北上资金跟踪本周(2. \n24-2.28)北上资金净流出293.4亿元，南下资金净流入168.8亿元，港股成交额中南下资金参与占比下降。● \n核心假设风险：美元、美债利率上行;国内信用收紧;盈利不达预期、贸易格局恶化。</p><p><strong>报告正文</strong></p><p><strong>港股周论：美股大跌与港股：暂难脱钩，调整各异</strong></p><p>本周公共卫生事件在全球出现迅速蔓延趋势，海外市场避险情绪飙升，欧美主要股市本周均大幅下跌10%以上，美股三大股指均创下2008年以来最大单周跌幅。</p><p>港股市场方面，恒生指数、恒生国企指数分别下跌4.32%、4.53%，恒生一级行业全部下跌，其中能源业跌幅最大，地产建筑业相对抗跌。海外市场大幅波动环境下，即使前期强势的A股也受到显著拖累，而港股由于具有“离岸”特征，受外围风险释放的影响更加明显。</p><p>目前公共卫生事件在海外仍有进一步扩散的趋势，短期内外盘走势仍存在较大不确定性，投资者对海外市场风险传导对港股的影响程度、持续时间也难以把握。在对短期波动难以把握的情况下，从更长周期的视角出发，借鉴历史经验，往往能对市场所处的位置有更清晰的认识。</p><p>历史上美股不同下跌情形对港股的影响程度有多大，持续时间又如何?港股是否存在“独善其身”的可能，现在宏观背景是否满足港股“脱钩”美股的条件?本期策论我们就以上话题进行剖析。</p><p><strong>美股“危机式下跌”与“技术性调整”，港股表现各异</strong></p><p>以美股标普500指数最大回撤幅度为标准，我们将美股下跌分为“危机式下跌”(最大回撤幅度超过20%，包括回撤幅度略小于20%的情形)与“技术性调整”(最大回撤幅度介于10%-20%之间)。1990年以来，美股共出现6次“危机式下跌”，5次“技术性调整”(包括本次下跌)。</p><p>无论美股“危机式下跌”还是“技术性调整”，在美股下跌区间内，港股都会出现阶段性回撤。美股港股走势高度相关，当美股出现回撤时，受波动率传导影响，港股都在一定程度上受到拖累，但其中也存在一些差异：</p><p>美股“危机式下跌”期间，港股区间内最大跌幅往往高于美股。</p><p>但也存在例外情形，如18Q4，在美股大幅下跌近20%的背景下，港股回撤幅度相对温和;</p><p>美股15-16年两度“技术性调整”，期间港股因受A股“股灾”、“熔断”等事件影响，下跌幅度更大;</p><p>而在2010年4月、2018年2月美股“技术性调整”期间，港股跌幅相对较小。</p><p>行业层面，无论美股下跌幅度如何，港股行业表现具有一致性规律：存在相对收益的行业主要集中在必需消费(食品饮料、零售、家庭与个人用品)、公用事业、电信服务等防御性板块。从下跌后的影响看，根据历史经验，只要不出现2000年“科网泡沫”破裂、2008年全球金融危机等崩盘式下跌，美股从底部修复至下跌前高位一般不超过10个月;对港股而言，历次因美股拖累出现回撤后，市场修复至前期高点的时间存在差异，但共性的规律在于，只要市场未出现2000年、2008年崩盘情形，修复时间不会太长。</p><center><img height=\"355\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e0204b3a52b08337c4ecde5413feac72.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"255\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/78c7a95e71730e278e494c465d2f382b.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"354\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3d8b3a9a7ce854b9c9f38e4a7ce31077.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"254\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6c2a99f0d9110a1f2a8c6d63600a06d1.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p><strong>港股如何“独善其身”，目前满足“脱钩”条件吗?</strong></p><p>历次美股下跌超10%期间，港股均在某一阶段内出现回撤，但另一方面，港股并非时刻跟随美股下跌节奏，根据我们统计，1990年至今，港股在1998年、2000年、2002年、2008年、2018年曾走出“独立行情”。这意味着即使美股出现“危机式下跌”，港股也存在阶段性入场机会。统计以上港股走出“独立行情”期间宏观层面特征，我们认为，港股在美股下跌阶段要实现“脱钩”，条件包括但不限于：人民币偏稳、美元偏弱、基本面偏强。</p><p>相对稳的人民币是“脱钩”最关键的指标：如08Q4美股下跌，而同期港股大幅上涨近30%，期间人民币汇率保持稳定;18Q4美股大幅下跌，港股未明显下跌，期间人民币兑美元走势小幅升值;</p><p>相对弱的美元往往也能对“脱钩”起到“锦上添花”的效果。除2000年以外，其余4次美股下跌、港股未明显下跌期间，美元指数或处于下行区间，或其绝对水平位于相对低位。</p><p>对于中美基本面预期的分化，也是股市“脱钩”的重要特征。由于港股基本面更多取决于中国经济的“在岸性”因素，若EPS增长出现向上拐点，则可能吸引资金流入，使得港股走势与美股走势“脱钩”。</p><center><img height=\"260\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/97226245cbd010a1862affd6e4570766.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"253\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/268481288a3552272c6f832840a2303c.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p>当前宏观背景是否满足港股“脱钩”美股的条件?短期来看，港股还不具备“独立”的条件，制约因素既来自“强美元、弱人民币”带来的资金流出压力，也来自基本面的下行压力。</p><p>尽管美元指数近期有所回落，但中枢仍显著高于去年底、今年1月初水平，叠加人民币汇率因公共卫生事件和经济预期冲击下再度“破7”，“强美元、弱人民币”的组合使得港股面临较大资金流出压力;</p><p>港股EPS一致预期的下修尽管已经持续了近1个月，但Q1较差的经济数据尚未完全Price \nin，加上1季度末开始买方/卖方密集进行盈利调整，预计未来盈利预期仍存在进一步下修的可能。</p><center><img height=\"253\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3345afe0816f74e203ccf843f1f7a834.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p><strong>投资策略：短线压力延续，但关注港股长线结构机遇</strong></p><p>本周海外公共卫生事件继续“爬坡”，市场波动和外资避险进一步加剧。我们结合历史经验与当前宏观背景，分析美股下跌对港股的影响。  </p><p>我们把美股下跌分为“危机式下跌”(最大回撤幅度超过20%，包括回撤幅度略小于20%的情形)与“技术性调整”(最大回撤幅度介于10%-20%之间)。</p><p>1990年以来，无论美股下跌幅度如何，港股都会出现阶段性回撤。美股“危机式下跌”期间，港股最大跌幅往往高于美股，而美股“技术性调整”期间，港股跌幅还受其它因素影响，与美股跌幅相比差异较大。</p><p>行业层面，美股下跌幅度不影响港股行业表现规律，必需消费(食品饮料、零售、家庭与个人用品)、公用事业、电信服务等防御性板块跑赢。</p><p>从下跌后影响看，美股与港股具有的共性规律在于，只要不出现2000年“科网泡沫”破裂、2008年全球金融危机等崩盘式下跌，市场从底部修复至下跌前高位不会经历太长时间。另一方面，我们注意到港股并非时刻跟随美股下跌节奏，在1998年、2000年、2002年、2008年、2018年，港股曾阶段性走出“独立行情”。</p><p>统计以上港股走出“独立行情”期间宏观层面特征，港股要实现“脱钩”需满足“人民币偏稳、美元偏弱、基本面偏强”等条件。但短期来看，港股还不具备“独立”的条件，制约因素既来自“强美元、弱人民币”带来的资金流出压力，也来自基本面的下行压力。</p><p><strong>投资策略：</strong>短线压力延续，但关注港股长线结构机遇。短期来看，近期海外公共卫生事件出现爬坡，避险情绪增加，港股市场或面临阶段性波动压力。但港股中长期配置吸引力仍然显著，核心逻辑未发生变化：</p><p>(1)全球“资产荒”对于低估值、高股息资产配置， \n尤其国内险资、 \n理财子公司的长线配置;(2)但港股中资股盈利“弱复苏”仍是大概率事件，公共卫生事件仅影响节奏;(3)“弱美元、稳人民币”带来的海外资金回流。</p><p>从配置的角度出发，短期关注方向包括：(1)互联网软件、医药、半导体、高股息个股等公共卫生事件“低敏感性”行业;(2)估值安全边际较高、基本面受逆周期对冲政策潜在刺激的汽车、地产行业。</p> </article></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股大跌之下 港股能走出独立行情吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股大跌之下 港股能走出独立行情吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-01 21:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/278212.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自 微信公众号“广发港股策略”，作者为广发证券分析师廖凌、朱国源。报告摘要港股策略周论：美股大跌与港股：暂难脱钩，调整各异历史上美股不同下跌情形对港股影响有何差异?当前港股是否满足“脱钩”条件?本期策论我们就以上话题进行剖析。美股“危机式下跌”与“技术性调整”，港股表现各异。1990年以来，无论美股下跌幅度如何，港股均出现阶段性回撤。美股“危机式下跌”期间，港股最大跌幅往往高于美股，而美股“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/278212.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20200301/20200301214054_41918.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/278212.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2016332611","content_text":"本文来自 微信公众号“广发港股策略”，作者为广发证券分析师廖凌、朱国源。报告摘要港股策略周论：美股大跌与港股：暂难脱钩，调整各异历史上美股不同下跌情形对港股影响有何差异?当前港股是否满足“脱钩”条件?本期策论我们就以上话题进行剖析。美股“危机式下跌”与“技术性调整”，港股表现各异。1990年以来，无论美股下跌幅度如何，港股均出现阶段性回撤。美股“危机式下跌”期间，港股最大跌幅往往高于美股，而美股“技术性调整”期间，港股跌幅还受其它因素影响，与美股跌幅相比差异较大。行业层面，美股跌幅差异不影响港股行业表现规律，必需消费(食品饮料、零售、家庭与个人用品)、公用事业、电信服务等板块多跑赢。从下跌后影响看，美股与港股的共性规律在于，只要不出现2000年“科网泡沫”破裂、2008年全球金融危机等崩盘式下跌，市场从底部修复至下跌前高位不会经历太长时间。港股如何“独善其身”，目前满足“脱钩”条件吗?我们注意到港股并非时刻跟随美股下跌节奏，在1998年、2000年、2002年、2008年、2018年，港股曾阶段性走出“独立行情”。宏观背景上，港股要实现“脱钩”需满足“人民币偏稳、美元偏弱、基本面偏强”等条件。但短期来看，港股还不具备“独立”的条件，制约因素来自“强美元、弱人民币”、以及基本面下行压力。投资策略：短线压力延续，但关注港股长线结构机遇。短期市场不确定性可能增加，关注部分“公共卫生事件不敏感”行业，如医药、软件服务、半导体、高股息个股等;以及部分估值安全边际较高，同时受逆周期对冲政策直接刺激的行业，如地产股、汽车股。● \n市场概览与情绪跟踪本周(2.24-2.28)恒生指数下跌4.32%，板块方面，恒生一级行业全部下跌，能源业跌幅最大，地产建筑业相对抗跌。HVIX指数、港股看跌看涨期权比例、主板沽空比例均明显上升。● 宏观流动性与估值跟踪本周(2.24-2.28)人民币汇率波动较小，10年期美债收益率大幅下跌至1.13%，中美利差走阔至161BP。WTI原油价格大幅下跌至44.8美元/桶。恒生指数PE \n9.76倍，低于历史均值。● 一致预期EPS跟踪本周(2.24-2.28)媒体对于恒生指数与国企指数20年EPS增速一致预期下调。● 南下北上资金跟踪本周(2. \n24-2.28)北上资金净流出293.4亿元，南下资金净流入168.8亿元，港股成交额中南下资金参与占比下降。● \n核心假设风险：美元、美债利率上行;国内信用收紧;盈利不达预期、贸易格局恶化。报告正文港股周论：美股大跌与港股：暂难脱钩，调整各异本周公共卫生事件在全球出现迅速蔓延趋势，海外市场避险情绪飙升，欧美主要股市本周均大幅下跌10%以上，美股三大股指均创下2008年以来最大单周跌幅。港股市场方面，恒生指数、恒生国企指数分别下跌4.32%、4.53%，恒生一级行业全部下跌，其中能源业跌幅最大，地产建筑业相对抗跌。海外市场大幅波动环境下，即使前期强势的A股也受到显著拖累，而港股由于具有“离岸”特征，受外围风险释放的影响更加明显。目前公共卫生事件在海外仍有进一步扩散的趋势，短期内外盘走势仍存在较大不确定性，投资者对海外市场风险传导对港股的影响程度、持续时间也难以把握。在对短期波动难以把握的情况下，从更长周期的视角出发，借鉴历史经验，往往能对市场所处的位置有更清晰的认识。历史上美股不同下跌情形对港股的影响程度有多大，持续时间又如何?港股是否存在“独善其身”的可能，现在宏观背景是否满足港股“脱钩”美股的条件?本期策论我们就以上话题进行剖析。美股“危机式下跌”与“技术性调整”，港股表现各异以美股标普500指数最大回撤幅度为标准，我们将美股下跌分为“危机式下跌”(最大回撤幅度超过20%，包括回撤幅度略小于20%的情形)与“技术性调整”(最大回撤幅度介于10%-20%之间)。1990年以来，美股共出现6次“危机式下跌”，5次“技术性调整”(包括本次下跌)。无论美股“危机式下跌”还是“技术性调整”，在美股下跌区间内，港股都会出现阶段性回撤。美股港股走势高度相关，当美股出现回撤时，受波动率传导影响，港股都在一定程度上受到拖累，但其中也存在一些差异：美股“危机式下跌”期间，港股区间内最大跌幅往往高于美股。但也存在例外情形，如18Q4，在美股大幅下跌近20%的背景下，港股回撤幅度相对温和;美股15-16年两度“技术性调整”，期间港股因受A股“股灾”、“熔断”等事件影响，下跌幅度更大;而在2010年4月、2018年2月美股“技术性调整”期间，港股跌幅相对较小。行业层面，无论美股下跌幅度如何，港股行业表现具有一致性规律：存在相对收益的行业主要集中在必需消费(食品饮料、零售、家庭与个人用品)、公用事业、电信服务等防御性板块。从下跌后的影响看，根据历史经验，只要不出现2000年“科网泡沫”破裂、2008年全球金融危机等崩盘式下跌，美股从底部修复至下跌前高位一般不超过10个月;对港股而言，历次因美股拖累出现回撤后，市场修复至前期高点的时间存在差异，但共性的规律在于，只要市场未出现2000年、2008年崩盘情形，修复时间不会太长。港股如何“独善其身”，目前满足“脱钩”条件吗?历次美股下跌超10%期间，港股均在某一阶段内出现回撤，但另一方面，港股并非时刻跟随美股下跌节奏，根据我们统计，1990年至今，港股在1998年、2000年、2002年、2008年、2018年曾走出“独立行情”。这意味着即使美股出现“危机式下跌”，港股也存在阶段性入场机会。统计以上港股走出“独立行情”期间宏观层面特征，我们认为，港股在美股下跌阶段要实现“脱钩”，条件包括但不限于：人民币偏稳、美元偏弱、基本面偏强。相对稳的人民币是“脱钩”最关键的指标：如08Q4美股下跌，而同期港股大幅上涨近30%，期间人民币汇率保持稳定;18Q4美股大幅下跌，港股未明显下跌，期间人民币兑美元走势小幅升值;相对弱的美元往往也能对“脱钩”起到“锦上添花”的效果。除2000年以外，其余4次美股下跌、港股未明显下跌期间，美元指数或处于下行区间，或其绝对水平位于相对低位。对于中美基本面预期的分化，也是股市“脱钩”的重要特征。由于港股基本面更多取决于中国经济的“在岸性”因素，若EPS增长出现向上拐点，则可能吸引资金流入，使得港股走势与美股走势“脱钩”。当前宏观背景是否满足港股“脱钩”美股的条件?短期来看，港股还不具备“独立”的条件，制约因素既来自“强美元、弱人民币”带来的资金流出压力，也来自基本面的下行压力。尽管美元指数近期有所回落，但中枢仍显著高于去年底、今年1月初水平，叠加人民币汇率因公共卫生事件和经济预期冲击下再度“破7”，“强美元、弱人民币”的组合使得港股面临较大资金流出压力;港股EPS一致预期的下修尽管已经持续了近1个月，但Q1较差的经济数据尚未完全Price \nin，加上1季度末开始买方/卖方密集进行盈利调整，预计未来盈利预期仍存在进一步下修的可能。投资策略：短线压力延续，但关注港股长线结构机遇本周海外公共卫生事件继续“爬坡”，市场波动和外资避险进一步加剧。我们结合历史经验与当前宏观背景，分析美股下跌对港股的影响。  我们把美股下跌分为“危机式下跌”(最大回撤幅度超过20%，包括回撤幅度略小于20%的情形)与“技术性调整”(最大回撤幅度介于10%-20%之间)。1990年以来，无论美股下跌幅度如何，港股都会出现阶段性回撤。美股“危机式下跌”期间，港股最大跌幅往往高于美股，而美股“技术性调整”期间，港股跌幅还受其它因素影响，与美股跌幅相比差异较大。行业层面，美股下跌幅度不影响港股行业表现规律，必需消费(食品饮料、零售、家庭与个人用品)、公用事业、电信服务等防御性板块跑赢。从下跌后影响看，美股与港股具有的共性规律在于，只要不出现2000年“科网泡沫”破裂、2008年全球金融危机等崩盘式下跌，市场从底部修复至下跌前高位不会经历太长时间。另一方面，我们注意到港股并非时刻跟随美股下跌节奏，在1998年、2000年、2002年、2008年、2018年，港股曾阶段性走出“独立行情”。统计以上港股走出“独立行情”期间宏观层面特征，港股要实现“脱钩”需满足“人民币偏稳、美元偏弱、基本面偏强”等条件。但短期来看，港股还不具备“独立”的条件，制约因素既来自“强美元、弱人民币”带来的资金流出压力，也来自基本面的下行压力。投资策略：短线压力延续，但关注港股长线结构机遇。短期来看，近期海外公共卫生事件出现爬坡，避险情绪增加，港股市场或面临阶段性波动压力。但港股中长期配置吸引力仍然显著，核心逻辑未发生变化：(1)全球“资产荒”对于低估值、高股息资产配置， \n尤其国内险资、 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