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只做我自己
2020-03-12
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
今晚会再次触发熔断吗?
只做我自己
2020-03-10
$AMD(AMD)$
硬核抗跌,amd算是历经时代考验了,疫情过后必将势如破竹。
只做我自己
2020-03-06
$联合大陆航空(UAL)$
美航那边依然还有下跌空间,别说联航了。
只做我自己
2020-03-06
$美国航空(AAL)$
难道真的要跌破10以下吗?坐飞机就要被淘汰了吗?
只做我自己
2020-03-05
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
美股开启过山车模式,超级短线投资者的天堂。
只做我自己
2020-03-05
$AMD(AMD)$
接下来美股不会不断开过山车模式,谁是短线高手谁发财。
只做我自己
2020-03-05
美股这段时间开过山车,看谁短信操作得溜准发大财。
张忆东:中国年内走独立行情,美股重新走牛有点难
只做我自己
2020-03-05
$AMD(AMD)$
如果不是病毒坏了好事,早突破60了。
只做我自己
2020-02-29
$AMD(AMD)$
如今已不是太平时节,一切抄底反弹都随时会被杀个回马枪。
只做我自己
2020-02-28
$苹果(AAPL)$
下跌时代已经打开,谁这么厉害就来抄底,不破200都不可靠。
只做我自己
2020-02-26
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
老婆出轨和股票爆仓,哪个更让人痛苦?
只做我自己
2020-02-25
$AMD(AMD)$
今晚买的人加杠杆的人等着要发大财。
只做我自己
2020-02-25
$AMD(AMD)$
看样子49这个支撑点还是很硬核!
只做我自己
2020-02-21
$AMD(AMD)$
不用说,该加仓加仓,该加杠杆加杠杆,amd回调就是让大家捡钱的。
只做我自己
2020-02-15
$希捷科技(STX)$
怎么回事掉这么猛,有什么利空?
只做我自己
2020-02-12
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
怎么变成a股的股性了,这个折磨啊。
只做我自己
2020-02-12
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
吉利德人类的希望,帮助中国人民战胜疫情前途无量。
只做我自己
2020-02-11
$AMD(AMD)$
线程撕裂者3900x所向无敌。
只做我自己
2020-02-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
那些900以上买入的人,从今往后开始价值投资的道路。
只做我自己
2020-02-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
人类越是面临灾难,越是想逃离地球,越是追捧能够逃离地球的技术。
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难道真的要跌破10以下吗?坐飞机就要被淘汰了吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981013227","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983797707,"gmtCreate":1583403452809,"gmtModify":1704349700860,"author":{"id":"3514977859780621","authorId":"3514977859780621","name":"只做我自己","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82abd64120f9be94dfd261869d358221","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514977859780621","authorIdStr":"3514977859780621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 美股开启过山车模式,超级短线投资者的天堂。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 美股开启过山车模式,超级短线投资者的天堂。","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 美股开启过山车模式,超级短线投资者的天堂。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983797707","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472509891364152","authorId":"3472509891364152","name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3472509891364152","authorIdStr":"3472509891364152"},"content":"散户亏的裤衩都不剩吧","text":"散户亏的裤衩都不剩吧","html":"散户亏的裤衩都不剩吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983477252,"gmtCreate":1583393249476,"gmtModify":1704349670636,"author":{"id":"3514977859780621","authorId":"3514977859780621","name":"只做我自己","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82abd64120f9be94dfd261869d358221","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514977859780621","authorIdStr":"3514977859780621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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接下来美股不会不断开过山车模式,谁是短线高手谁发财。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983477252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983474422,"gmtCreate":1583392964466,"gmtModify":1704349669086,"author":{"id":"3514977859780621","authorId":"3514977859780621","name":"只做我自己","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82abd64120f9be94dfd261869d358221","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514977859780621","authorIdStr":"3514977859780621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股这段时间开过山车,看谁短信操作得溜准发大财。","listText":"美股这段时间开过山车,看谁短信操作得溜准发大财。","text":"美股这段时间开过山车,看谁短信操作得溜准发大财。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983474422","repostId":"1140358181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140358181","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"走近最优秀的投资人,聆听客观表达的理性声音,只做最好的原创财富资讯,洞见独立思想,回归资本常识。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"聪明投资者","id":"1072656223","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f"},"pubTimestamp":1583369679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140358181?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-05 08:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"张忆东:中国年内走独立行情,美股重新走牛有点难","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140358181","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在今天2020年高金E讲堂一场对话中发表最新观点,称从一年的角度来说,中国一定是走独立行情的,美股这次想重新走牛有点难。\n美股这次调整后重新走牛有点难 今年大概率是小熊","content":"<p>兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在今天2020年高金E讲堂一场对话中发表最新观点,称从一年的角度来说,中国一定是走独立行情的,美股这次想重新走牛有点难。</p>\n<p><b>美股这次调整后重新走牛有点难 今年大概率是小熊市或震荡市</b></p>\n<p>我先讲一下海外市场,再说一下中国资本市场。</p>\n<p>海外市场我们偏谨慎,因为在两周前我们写的策略报告,名字叫《西风冷,东风暖,顺风而行》,西风冷指的是我们提示的海外估值跟它盈利是不匹配的,因为从2019年的三季度开始,美联储不断降息扩表,导致无风险收益率下行,引发全球大的资产都涨了一轮,A股很有意思,风险资产和避险资产一起涨,美股、美债、美元以及黄金一起涨。</p>\n<p>这个情况到了2月下旬,我们就觉得不对劲,因为钱能解决一切问题吗?我们打了一个问号,特别是疫情对于海外的影响,到了2月下旬,明显提升了,韩国、日本以及欧洲,特别是意大利的情况恶化,所以我们当时判断避险情绪,risk off将会主导海外市场,结果也被我们言中了,所以2月底跌得很凶。</p>\n<p>现在,回顾过去和展望未来,初始的时候,可能比较像2018年的2月份,估值偏高,再叠加了交易拥挤,一旦有了黑天鹅,2018年的2月份也是有了黑天鹅,就产生了一个明显的踩踏,踩踏以后是盘了两个月,慢慢又开始重新走回牛市的途径。</p>\n<p>这一次我们觉得有点难,很可能调整之后,美股今年在一个弱势震荡中,星期一、星期二大家有点担心,会不会走向2008年?所以这是我今天跟大家想分享的。</p>\n<p>特别是礼拜二美联储大幅降息,这是历史上都比较罕见,因为3月18号就要开美联储一期会议了,他等不及了,就说明什么?情况很危险,所以他要降息做一个对冲。</p>\n<p>因为历史上来看,每一次金融危机都是流动性突然干枯所引发的,就好像说一个人不能够心脏猝停,心脏一旦供血不足,很可能就导致个人的死亡,资本市场也是一样的,像2008年如果美联储及早出手,雷曼可能不会倒掉,雷曼不倒掉,就可能不会产生金融海啸。</p>\n<p>所以我想美联储吸取了过去十几年的经验和教训,这一次及时出手。</p>\n<p>我们在2月底写的报告,就明确提醒,美国的一些风险指标,VX指标已经差不多50了,50什么概念?2008年差不多80,历史上几次的恐慌,有数据以来的VX指数也不过就50左右。</p>\n<p>另外一个就是高收益债的利差达到了5.8,2月底,跟2018年四季度最恐慌的时候也比较像。所以我们前面说美联储要加紧开始行动起来。</p>\n<p>周末我对美联储的声明是有点小失望的,它只是表达了会采取措施,并且美国经济还不错,到了周二美联储就出手了,我认为这个反映了美国金融的精英层还是比较理性、理智,他知道不能让这种恐慌自我蔓延,它应该是开启了无限开火权的危机模式。</p>\n<p>所以大家不用觉得50个BP降了以后后面没有了,现在因为美国的基准利率已经到了1-1.25,十年期国债收益率也降到了1以下了。</p>\n<p>面对危机,不能用平常的角度来看,它可以降到0、可以扩表,而且真正的大杀器是扩表,是QE。所以面对接下来的海外市场,我们说基本面依然受到压制,很难重新走回像2019年的牛市,它应该是震荡调整,受到基本面的一个压制。</p>\n<p>但是我们专业性的判断,认为大概率今年是一个震荡的小年,小概率才是一个大危机、大熊市,因为大危机、大熊市往往都是资金面的问题,才会产生这种自我强化,甚至从资本市场蔓延到债务,从债券市场蔓延到整个经济,就不可收拾了。</p>\n<p>我们知道的事情,美联储也知道。美国从2008年次贷危机以后,它并没有根本性的改变这种总体债务率偏高的问题,只是转移了债务杠杆,从居民部门转移到了政府部门,美国整体的债务率还是非常高的。</p>\n<p>如果说美国这一次的资本市场以及信贷环境、信用市场出现了大的调整,很可能引发美国的主权债务的危机,进而引发美国的大萧条,伯南克经过了过去的将近20年的实践,已经让美联储驾轻就熟了,对于对冲这种大萧条、对冲危机模式,他们是有经验的。</p>\n<p>基于美联储带领的新一轮全球大放水,2020年全球,特别是美国出现30%以上的大熊市的概率还是偏小的,而在20%左右这种小熊市,或者说10%左右的震荡市的概率更大,这是从资金面的角度来说。</p>\n<p>从基本面的角度来说,就算没有疫情,美国水牛的状态今年也会受到影响,不只是资本市场,因为它的经济,不断的放水导致消费的虚假繁荣,而它的消费者信心指数已经到了历史高位,有点盛极而衰,本身在没有疫情的时候,2019年年底和2020年的年初,美国的标普500盈利的一致预测已经开始下调了,最近一旦股市大跌了以后,调整的更快了。</p>\n<p>而且今年有一个问题是民粹主义可能会泛滥,特别是大家小心的是什么?民主党的左倾倾向,人均贫富、要求加税,美国民主党,特别是桑德斯、沃伦为代表的,对华尔街非常不友好,他们的竞选纲领是要提高资本利得税。</p>\n<p>如果美国今年出现超预期的黑天鹅,我倒是倾向于不是在于疫情,而是要关注民粹主义会不会捆住美联储的手脚,让美联储该放水如果他不放水,反而有可能是出现了大危机,否则按照美联储现在在周二就能够及时出手,而且后续我倾向于说它应该是有一个无限开火权了,是应对危机的。</p>\n<p>总体来看,基本面差、又大放水,所以大家的风险偏好也不会太高,所以海外市场今年要留一半清醒,要有谨慎,但也不用过度悲观。</p>\n<p>什么叫过度悲观?如果大家觉得美国、欧洲今年是个大熊市,是一种过度悲观,如果说他们是个大熊市,一定会引发全球危机的,如果是金融危机,资本市场、全球资本市场都是一条船上的,都是一个命运共同体,不可能说美股是个大熊市大危机,而中国能够独立走牛。</p>\n<p>还是和平为好,要理性一点,多希望美联储能够把烂摊子稳住,这是我们对海外的看法,总体来说海外性价比不好。</p>\n<p><b>今年会放水,但不是水牛 中国指数下面是有底的</b></p>\n<p>看中国资产,无论是A股还是港股,我们倾向于说叫有惊无险。中期乐观,短期倒春寒,有惊无险。</p>\n<p>在2月中旬我们就提出来A股市场有倒春寒的风险。海外只是外因,是一个导火索,真正的原因是我们自身基本面的原因,以及春节以后上涨幅度特别陡峭以至于获利盘很大,局部出现泡沫,出现了钱多人傻速来的水牛亢奋。</p>\n<p>所以我在2月中旬就提出来,今年会放水,但不是水牛。我们把中国2020年的上证综指调低了幅度,因为在去年底,2019年11月12号开年度策略会的时候,我们讲的是“全球资产荒和中国核心资产牛市新主角”,当时觉得2020年的指数先抑后扬,有可能有个20%的上涨。</p>\n<p>但是现在2月中旬,我们觉得逆势,跟大家的那种亢奋完全不一样,我们调低了,叫做平衡式结构性行情。</p>\n<p>这种行情全年上下10%,如果从1月的高点来看,到年底很可能叫弱平衡市,涨幅很难有10%。</p>\n<p>这种情况下,我们要留一半清醒,留一半醉,清醒的是海外困难对中国是有压制的,因为它可以透过全球风险敞口的收缩,进而(导致)新兴市场的资产可能都会受到减持,从而阶段性会有一定的压力。</p>\n<p>第2个就是如果全球的基本面都弱,靠放水还是有隐患的。所以不要期待着2015年水牛的重演,既不要太乐观,但是也不要太悲观,留一份理性,也就是下有底。</p>\n<p>你可以看到咱们的一堆价值股,无论是金融地产和传统行业的龙头公司,经过了2016年至今4年的供给侧改革以后,行业竞争格局有非常大的改善,所以行业呈现出优胜劣汰,赢家通吃,胜者为王。</p>\n<p>这些传统行业的优质核心资产分红的能力大大提升,盈利的稳定性也大大提升,抗风险能力更强。从中长期的角度来说,如果海外经济不容乐观,又要放水,那大类资产配置上,全球会有一个风水轮流转(现象)。</p>\n<p>过去的10年是跨在市场持续的强于新兴市场,但是反过来当海外有压力的时候,中国最优秀的这批资产的性价比就凸显了。海外的old money,包括中国国内的保险银行、理财子公司为代表的长线资金,更愿意在大类资产配置中优先配置中国的优秀的、有分红能力的传统行业的核心资产。</p>\n<p>这些恰恰又是中国指数的权重股,所以中国指数下面是有底的,只要不出现全球的金融危机,中国今年的指数大概率就不是一个熊市,而是一个震荡市,上下10%这样的震荡市,下有底,上面可能也是有天花板的。</p>\n<p><b>全球下行中国反而是避风港 这些领域未来能产生大机会</b></p>\n<p>然而中国的亮点在结构,因为中国经济的结构调整也是未来延续多年的主脉络,这样的经济结构调整带来中国高质量的发展,能够推动中国结构的优化和高质量发展的是劳动生产率,是科技管理模式的更新,是效率的提升。</p>\n<p>浓缩在一个方向就是中国制造2025的十大领域,一条主线就是数据化、信息化改造我们制造业大国,走向制造业强国,走向智能制造。</p>\n<p>所以中国制造2025将会是结构调整的重要抓手,也是所谓新基建的重要核心。它包括10个领域,比如说硬的有新能源车、5G、半导体等,软的有信息服务、智慧城市,还有类似于云、大数据、互联网,包括各种互联网的应用、5G的应用,以及这次疫情中反映的一些短板,就是高端医疗和生物科技。</p>\n<p>这些领域都是未来能够产生大机会的,甚至能够产生一种上涨10倍或者更大空间的优质的公司,这是机会的沃土。</p>\n<p>在全球都遭遇到经济下行压力的背景下,中国反而是避风港,因为我们无论在疫情的控制,还是财政政策、货币政策的武器库、工具箱里边的工具其实是全球最给力的,执行力最强的,而且我们的工具空间、政策空间也是最大的。</p>\n<p>所以中国在全球动荡中间,人民币资产恰恰形成了避风港的效应,这是从中期的角度,短期还是会受到海外不确定性的影响带来倒春寒。</p>\n<p>短期的倒春寒可能还没有完全结束,大家还要留一半清醒。也许到了3月中下旬,特别是随着海外的疫情变化,看看欧洲的数据能不能见高回落,美国的疫情情况会不会有一些缓和。</p>\n<p>再看3月18号,如果美联储议息会议上有进一步的宽松,包括提到扩表QE或者说进一步的降息(情况)。那时候可能全球的风险偏好risk off阶段会有有所缓和并告一段落,对于中国资产,无论A股还是港股,底部也会更坚实,而且政策的落地能够开始产生一些效果了。</p>\n<p><b>静态估值偏高的科技股可以等一等 未来三五年要看成长</b></p>\n<p>从短期的角度来说,不用着急,千万不要追高,宁可怀着怜悯的心建设社会主义祖国,低买有高分红能力的价值股,这叫做“便宜是硬道理”。对于价值型的投资者是可以逢低买的,对于静态估值偏高的科技股可以等一等,不是说等它的估值能回落多低,如果所谓的科技股估值回落到很低的时候,即大幅回落,反而要小心,有可能它被证伪了。</p>\n<p>像当时的乐视网一样,以前以为它是一个科技股,后来发现是伪科技,那它的估值一下就下来了。</p>\n<p>所以科技股看的不是它的静态估值贵还是不贵,更多的关注它的成长性是不是真正有高增长,看的是远期的估值,看他的PEG,看他的市值空间,在三四月份,随着年报、一季报披露,大概就知道这些最优秀的这种公司是不是符合大家的预期,是不是真的是一个高增长的公司?如果它是,那个时候恰恰趁着市场波折的时候,应该是勇于买入。</p>\n<p>所以倒春寒之后,中国资产依然是春天,虽然春天有的时候时不时有各种的疾病,但是离夏天还远。</p>\n<p>所以我们讲的中国资产过去的4年,甚至是从2015年至今,我们在全球跟发达市场相比,我们是跑输的。</p>\n<p>但是再往后面看3~5年,中国资产将跑赢发达市场,最主要的机会在核心资产。而这核心资产不只是说大家看到的传统行业的核心资产,那是过去4年做减法的时候最受益的。当然了,现在全球无风险收益率下行的时候,它也是有防御性的。所以传统行业的核心资产,它是作为盾牌、作为防御。</p>\n<p>从进攻的角度来说,未来三五年要看成长,要看经济发展的主脉络,是要做加法、做乘法、做效率的提高,所以这一块的方向就浓缩在以中国制造2025为特征,以先进制造业为抓手的一些科技型核心资产里边,这些公司每一次的调整都是选择最优秀的公司的时候。</p>\n<p>风物长宜放眼量,在这种全球不确定的背景下,我们倒是觉得要耐下心来,勇于在贝塔波动的时候去精选最优秀的中国资产。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张忆东:中国年内走独立行情,美股重新走牛有点难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-05 08:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在今天2020年高金E讲堂一场对话中发表最新观点,称从一年的角度来说,中国一定是走独立行情的,美股这次想重新走牛有点难。</p>\n<p><b>美股这次调整后重新走牛有点难 今年大概率是小熊市或震荡市</b></p>\n<p>我先讲一下海外市场,再说一下中国资本市场。</p>\n<p>海外市场我们偏谨慎,因为在两周前我们写的策略报告,名字叫《西风冷,东风暖,顺风而行》,西风冷指的是我们提示的海外估值跟它盈利是不匹配的,因为从2019年的三季度开始,美联储不断降息扩表,导致无风险收益率下行,引发全球大的资产都涨了一轮,A股很有意思,风险资产和避险资产一起涨,美股、美债、美元以及黄金一起涨。</p>\n<p>这个情况到了2月下旬,我们就觉得不对劲,因为钱能解决一切问题吗?我们打了一个问号,特别是疫情对于海外的影响,到了2月下旬,明显提升了,韩国、日本以及欧洲,特别是意大利的情况恶化,所以我们当时判断避险情绪,risk off将会主导海外市场,结果也被我们言中了,所以2月底跌得很凶。</p>\n<p>现在,回顾过去和展望未来,初始的时候,可能比较像2018年的2月份,估值偏高,再叠加了交易拥挤,一旦有了黑天鹅,2018年的2月份也是有了黑天鹅,就产生了一个明显的踩踏,踩踏以后是盘了两个月,慢慢又开始重新走回牛市的途径。</p>\n<p>这一次我们觉得有点难,很可能调整之后,美股今年在一个弱势震荡中,星期一、星期二大家有点担心,会不会走向2008年?所以这是我今天跟大家想分享的。</p>\n<p>特别是礼拜二美联储大幅降息,这是历史上都比较罕见,因为3月18号就要开美联储一期会议了,他等不及了,就说明什么?情况很危险,所以他要降息做一个对冲。</p>\n<p>因为历史上来看,每一次金融危机都是流动性突然干枯所引发的,就好像说一个人不能够心脏猝停,心脏一旦供血不足,很可能就导致个人的死亡,资本市场也是一样的,像2008年如果美联储及早出手,雷曼可能不会倒掉,雷曼不倒掉,就可能不会产生金融海啸。</p>\n<p>所以我想美联储吸取了过去十几年的经验和教训,这一次及时出手。</p>\n<p>我们在2月底写的报告,就明确提醒,美国的一些风险指标,VX指标已经差不多50了,50什么概念?2008年差不多80,历史上几次的恐慌,有数据以来的VX指数也不过就50左右。</p>\n<p>另外一个就是高收益债的利差达到了5.8,2月底,跟2018年四季度最恐慌的时候也比较像。所以我们前面说美联储要加紧开始行动起来。</p>\n<p>周末我对美联储的声明是有点小失望的,它只是表达了会采取措施,并且美国经济还不错,到了周二美联储就出手了,我认为这个反映了美国金融的精英层还是比较理性、理智,他知道不能让这种恐慌自我蔓延,它应该是开启了无限开火权的危机模式。</p>\n<p>所以大家不用觉得50个BP降了以后后面没有了,现在因为美国的基准利率已经到了1-1.25,十年期国债收益率也降到了1以下了。</p>\n<p>面对危机,不能用平常的角度来看,它可以降到0、可以扩表,而且真正的大杀器是扩表,是QE。所以面对接下来的海外市场,我们说基本面依然受到压制,很难重新走回像2019年的牛市,它应该是震荡调整,受到基本面的一个压制。</p>\n<p>但是我们专业性的判断,认为大概率今年是一个震荡的小年,小概率才是一个大危机、大熊市,因为大危机、大熊市往往都是资金面的问题,才会产生这种自我强化,甚至从资本市场蔓延到债务,从债券市场蔓延到整个经济,就不可收拾了。</p>\n<p>我们知道的事情,美联储也知道。美国从2008年次贷危机以后,它并没有根本性的改变这种总体债务率偏高的问题,只是转移了债务杠杆,从居民部门转移到了政府部门,美国整体的债务率还是非常高的。</p>\n<p>如果说美国这一次的资本市场以及信贷环境、信用市场出现了大的调整,很可能引发美国的主权债务的危机,进而引发美国的大萧条,伯南克经过了过去的将近20年的实践,已经让美联储驾轻就熟了,对于对冲这种大萧条、对冲危机模式,他们是有经验的。</p>\n<p>基于美联储带领的新一轮全球大放水,2020年全球,特别是美国出现30%以上的大熊市的概率还是偏小的,而在20%左右这种小熊市,或者说10%左右的震荡市的概率更大,这是从资金面的角度来说。</p>\n<p>从基本面的角度来说,就算没有疫情,美国水牛的状态今年也会受到影响,不只是资本市场,因为它的经济,不断的放水导致消费的虚假繁荣,而它的消费者信心指数已经到了历史高位,有点盛极而衰,本身在没有疫情的时候,2019年年底和2020年的年初,美国的标普500盈利的一致预测已经开始下调了,最近一旦股市大跌了以后,调整的更快了。</p>\n<p>而且今年有一个问题是民粹主义可能会泛滥,特别是大家小心的是什么?民主党的左倾倾向,人均贫富、要求加税,美国民主党,特别是桑德斯、沃伦为代表的,对华尔街非常不友好,他们的竞选纲领是要提高资本利得税。</p>\n<p>如果美国今年出现超预期的黑天鹅,我倒是倾向于不是在于疫情,而是要关注民粹主义会不会捆住美联储的手脚,让美联储该放水如果他不放水,反而有可能是出现了大危机,否则按照美联储现在在周二就能够及时出手,而且后续我倾向于说它应该是有一个无限开火权了,是应对危机的。</p>\n<p>总体来看,基本面差、又大放水,所以大家的风险偏好也不会太高,所以海外市场今年要留一半清醒,要有谨慎,但也不用过度悲观。</p>\n<p>什么叫过度悲观?如果大家觉得美国、欧洲今年是个大熊市,是一种过度悲观,如果说他们是个大熊市,一定会引发全球危机的,如果是金融危机,资本市场、全球资本市场都是一条船上的,都是一个命运共同体,不可能说美股是个大熊市大危机,而中国能够独立走牛。</p>\n<p>还是和平为好,要理性一点,多希望美联储能够把烂摊子稳住,这是我们对海外的看法,总体来说海外性价比不好。</p>\n<p><b>今年会放水,但不是水牛 中国指数下面是有底的</b></p>\n<p>看中国资产,无论是A股还是港股,我们倾向于说叫有惊无险。中期乐观,短期倒春寒,有惊无险。</p>\n<p>在2月中旬我们就提出来A股市场有倒春寒的风险。海外只是外因,是一个导火索,真正的原因是我们自身基本面的原因,以及春节以后上涨幅度特别陡峭以至于获利盘很大,局部出现泡沫,出现了钱多人傻速来的水牛亢奋。</p>\n<p>所以我在2月中旬就提出来,今年会放水,但不是水牛。我们把中国2020年的上证综指调低了幅度,因为在去年底,2019年11月12号开年度策略会的时候,我们讲的是“全球资产荒和中国核心资产牛市新主角”,当时觉得2020年的指数先抑后扬,有可能有个20%的上涨。</p>\n<p>但是现在2月中旬,我们觉得逆势,跟大家的那种亢奋完全不一样,我们调低了,叫做平衡式结构性行情。</p>\n<p>这种行情全年上下10%,如果从1月的高点来看,到年底很可能叫弱平衡市,涨幅很难有10%。</p>\n<p>这种情况下,我们要留一半清醒,留一半醉,清醒的是海外困难对中国是有压制的,因为它可以透过全球风险敞口的收缩,进而(导致)新兴市场的资产可能都会受到减持,从而阶段性会有一定的压力。</p>\n<p>第2个就是如果全球的基本面都弱,靠放水还是有隐患的。所以不要期待着2015年水牛的重演,既不要太乐观,但是也不要太悲观,留一份理性,也就是下有底。</p>\n<p>你可以看到咱们的一堆价值股,无论是金融地产和传统行业的龙头公司,经过了2016年至今4年的供给侧改革以后,行业竞争格局有非常大的改善,所以行业呈现出优胜劣汰,赢家通吃,胜者为王。</p>\n<p>这些传统行业的优质核心资产分红的能力大大提升,盈利的稳定性也大大提升,抗风险能力更强。从中长期的角度来说,如果海外经济不容乐观,又要放水,那大类资产配置上,全球会有一个风水轮流转(现象)。</p>\n<p>过去的10年是跨在市场持续的强于新兴市场,但是反过来当海外有压力的时候,中国最优秀的这批资产的性价比就凸显了。海外的old money,包括中国国内的保险银行、理财子公司为代表的长线资金,更愿意在大类资产配置中优先配置中国的优秀的、有分红能力的传统行业的核心资产。</p>\n<p>这些恰恰又是中国指数的权重股,所以中国指数下面是有底的,只要不出现全球的金融危机,中国今年的指数大概率就不是一个熊市,而是一个震荡市,上下10%这样的震荡市,下有底,上面可能也是有天花板的。</p>\n<p><b>全球下行中国反而是避风港 这些领域未来能产生大机会</b></p>\n<p>然而中国的亮点在结构,因为中国经济的结构调整也是未来延续多年的主脉络,这样的经济结构调整带来中国高质量的发展,能够推动中国结构的优化和高质量发展的是劳动生产率,是科技管理模式的更新,是效率的提升。</p>\n<p>浓缩在一个方向就是中国制造2025的十大领域,一条主线就是数据化、信息化改造我们制造业大国,走向制造业强国,走向智能制造。</p>\n<p>所以中国制造2025将会是结构调整的重要抓手,也是所谓新基建的重要核心。它包括10个领域,比如说硬的有新能源车、5G、半导体等,软的有信息服务、智慧城市,还有类似于云、大数据、互联网,包括各种互联网的应用、5G的应用,以及这次疫情中反映的一些短板,就是高端医疗和生物科技。</p>\n<p>这些领域都是未来能够产生大机会的,甚至能够产生一种上涨10倍或者更大空间的优质的公司,这是机会的沃土。</p>\n<p>在全球都遭遇到经济下行压力的背景下,中国反而是避风港,因为我们无论在疫情的控制,还是财政政策、货币政策的武器库、工具箱里边的工具其实是全球最给力的,执行力最强的,而且我们的工具空间、政策空间也是最大的。</p>\n<p>所以中国在全球动荡中间,人民币资产恰恰形成了避风港的效应,这是从中期的角度,短期还是会受到海外不确定性的影响带来倒春寒。</p>\n<p>短期的倒春寒可能还没有完全结束,大家还要留一半清醒。也许到了3月中下旬,特别是随着海外的疫情变化,看看欧洲的数据能不能见高回落,美国的疫情情况会不会有一些缓和。</p>\n<p>再看3月18号,如果美联储议息会议上有进一步的宽松,包括提到扩表QE或者说进一步的降息(情况)。那时候可能全球的风险偏好risk off阶段会有有所缓和并告一段落,对于中国资产,无论A股还是港股,底部也会更坚实,而且政策的落地能够开始产生一些效果了。</p>\n<p><b>静态估值偏高的科技股可以等一等 未来三五年要看成长</b></p>\n<p>从短期的角度来说,不用着急,千万不要追高,宁可怀着怜悯的心建设社会主义祖国,低买有高分红能力的价值股,这叫做“便宜是硬道理”。对于价值型的投资者是可以逢低买的,对于静态估值偏高的科技股可以等一等,不是说等它的估值能回落多低,如果所谓的科技股估值回落到很低的时候,即大幅回落,反而要小心,有可能它被证伪了。</p>\n<p>像当时的乐视网一样,以前以为它是一个科技股,后来发现是伪科技,那它的估值一下就下来了。</p>\n<p>所以科技股看的不是它的静态估值贵还是不贵,更多的关注它的成长性是不是真正有高增长,看的是远期的估值,看他的PEG,看他的市值空间,在三四月份,随着年报、一季报披露,大概就知道这些最优秀的这种公司是不是符合大家的预期,是不是真的是一个高增长的公司?如果它是,那个时候恰恰趁着市场波折的时候,应该是勇于买入。</p>\n<p>所以倒春寒之后,中国资产依然是春天,虽然春天有的时候时不时有各种的疾病,但是离夏天还远。</p>\n<p>所以我们讲的中国资产过去的4年,甚至是从2015年至今,我们在全球跟发达市场相比,我们是跑输的。</p>\n<p>但是再往后面看3~5年,中国资产将跑赢发达市场,最主要的机会在核心资产。而这核心资产不只是说大家看到的传统行业的核心资产,那是过去4年做减法的时候最受益的。当然了,现在全球无风险收益率下行的时候,它也是有防御性的。所以传统行业的核心资产,它是作为盾牌、作为防御。</p>\n<p>从进攻的角度来说,未来三五年要看成长,要看经济发展的主脉络,是要做加法、做乘法、做效率的提高,所以这一块的方向就浓缩在以中国制造2025为特征,以先进制造业为抓手的一些科技型核心资产里边,这些公司每一次的调整都是选择最优秀的公司的时候。</p>\n<p>风物长宜放眼量,在这种全球不确定的背景下,我们倒是觉得要耐下心来,勇于在贝塔波动的时候去精选最优秀的中国资产。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b45b679ad2da3f209ee10cbc60e579e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140358181","content_text":"兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在今天2020年高金E讲堂一场对话中发表最新观点,称从一年的角度来说,中国一定是走独立行情的,美股这次想重新走牛有点难。\n美股这次调整后重新走牛有点难 今年大概率是小熊市或震荡市\n我先讲一下海外市场,再说一下中国资本市场。\n海外市场我们偏谨慎,因为在两周前我们写的策略报告,名字叫《西风冷,东风暖,顺风而行》,西风冷指的是我们提示的海外估值跟它盈利是不匹配的,因为从2019年的三季度开始,美联储不断降息扩表,导致无风险收益率下行,引发全球大的资产都涨了一轮,A股很有意思,风险资产和避险资产一起涨,美股、美债、美元以及黄金一起涨。\n这个情况到了2月下旬,我们就觉得不对劲,因为钱能解决一切问题吗?我们打了一个问号,特别是疫情对于海外的影响,到了2月下旬,明显提升了,韩国、日本以及欧洲,特别是意大利的情况恶化,所以我们当时判断避险情绪,risk off将会主导海外市场,结果也被我们言中了,所以2月底跌得很凶。\n现在,回顾过去和展望未来,初始的时候,可能比较像2018年的2月份,估值偏高,再叠加了交易拥挤,一旦有了黑天鹅,2018年的2月份也是有了黑天鹅,就产生了一个明显的踩踏,踩踏以后是盘了两个月,慢慢又开始重新走回牛市的途径。\n这一次我们觉得有点难,很可能调整之后,美股今年在一个弱势震荡中,星期一、星期二大家有点担心,会不会走向2008年?所以这是我今天跟大家想分享的。\n特别是礼拜二美联储大幅降息,这是历史上都比较罕见,因为3月18号就要开美联储一期会议了,他等不及了,就说明什么?情况很危险,所以他要降息做一个对冲。\n因为历史上来看,每一次金融危机都是流动性突然干枯所引发的,就好像说一个人不能够心脏猝停,心脏一旦供血不足,很可能就导致个人的死亡,资本市场也是一样的,像2008年如果美联储及早出手,雷曼可能不会倒掉,雷曼不倒掉,就可能不会产生金融海啸。\n所以我想美联储吸取了过去十几年的经验和教训,这一次及时出手。\n我们在2月底写的报告,就明确提醒,美国的一些风险指标,VX指标已经差不多50了,50什么概念?2008年差不多80,历史上几次的恐慌,有数据以来的VX指数也不过就50左右。\n另外一个就是高收益债的利差达到了5.8,2月底,跟2018年四季度最恐慌的时候也比较像。所以我们前面说美联储要加紧开始行动起来。\n周末我对美联储的声明是有点小失望的,它只是表达了会采取措施,并且美国经济还不错,到了周二美联储就出手了,我认为这个反映了美国金融的精英层还是比较理性、理智,他知道不能让这种恐慌自我蔓延,它应该是开启了无限开火权的危机模式。\n所以大家不用觉得50个BP降了以后后面没有了,现在因为美国的基准利率已经到了1-1.25,十年期国债收益率也降到了1以下了。\n面对危机,不能用平常的角度来看,它可以降到0、可以扩表,而且真正的大杀器是扩表,是QE。所以面对接下来的海外市场,我们说基本面依然受到压制,很难重新走回像2019年的牛市,它应该是震荡调整,受到基本面的一个压制。\n但是我们专业性的判断,认为大概率今年是一个震荡的小年,小概率才是一个大危机、大熊市,因为大危机、大熊市往往都是资金面的问题,才会产生这种自我强化,甚至从资本市场蔓延到债务,从债券市场蔓延到整个经济,就不可收拾了。\n我们知道的事情,美联储也知道。美国从2008年次贷危机以后,它并没有根本性的改变这种总体债务率偏高的问题,只是转移了债务杠杆,从居民部门转移到了政府部门,美国整体的债务率还是非常高的。\n如果说美国这一次的资本市场以及信贷环境、信用市场出现了大的调整,很可能引发美国的主权债务的危机,进而引发美国的大萧条,伯南克经过了过去的将近20年的实践,已经让美联储驾轻就熟了,对于对冲这种大萧条、对冲危机模式,他们是有经验的。\n基于美联储带领的新一轮全球大放水,2020年全球,特别是美国出现30%以上的大熊市的概率还是偏小的,而在20%左右这种小熊市,或者说10%左右的震荡市的概率更大,这是从资金面的角度来说。\n从基本面的角度来说,就算没有疫情,美国水牛的状态今年也会受到影响,不只是资本市场,因为它的经济,不断的放水导致消费的虚假繁荣,而它的消费者信心指数已经到了历史高位,有点盛极而衰,本身在没有疫情的时候,2019年年底和2020年的年初,美国的标普500盈利的一致预测已经开始下调了,最近一旦股市大跌了以后,调整的更快了。\n而且今年有一个问题是民粹主义可能会泛滥,特别是大家小心的是什么?民主党的左倾倾向,人均贫富、要求加税,美国民主党,特别是桑德斯、沃伦为代表的,对华尔街非常不友好,他们的竞选纲领是要提高资本利得税。\n如果美国今年出现超预期的黑天鹅,我倒是倾向于不是在于疫情,而是要关注民粹主义会不会捆住美联储的手脚,让美联储该放水如果他不放水,反而有可能是出现了大危机,否则按照美联储现在在周二就能够及时出手,而且后续我倾向于说它应该是有一个无限开火权了,是应对危机的。\n总体来看,基本面差、又大放水,所以大家的风险偏好也不会太高,所以海外市场今年要留一半清醒,要有谨慎,但也不用过度悲观。\n什么叫过度悲观?如果大家觉得美国、欧洲今年是个大熊市,是一种过度悲观,如果说他们是个大熊市,一定会引发全球危机的,如果是金融危机,资本市场、全球资本市场都是一条船上的,都是一个命运共同体,不可能说美股是个大熊市大危机,而中国能够独立走牛。\n还是和平为好,要理性一点,多希望美联储能够把烂摊子稳住,这是我们对海外的看法,总体来说海外性价比不好。\n今年会放水,但不是水牛 中国指数下面是有底的\n看中国资产,无论是A股还是港股,我们倾向于说叫有惊无险。中期乐观,短期倒春寒,有惊无险。\n在2月中旬我们就提出来A股市场有倒春寒的风险。海外只是外因,是一个导火索,真正的原因是我们自身基本面的原因,以及春节以后上涨幅度特别陡峭以至于获利盘很大,局部出现泡沫,出现了钱多人傻速来的水牛亢奋。\n所以我在2月中旬就提出来,今年会放水,但不是水牛。我们把中国2020年的上证综指调低了幅度,因为在去年底,2019年11月12号开年度策略会的时候,我们讲的是“全球资产荒和中国核心资产牛市新主角”,当时觉得2020年的指数先抑后扬,有可能有个20%的上涨。\n但是现在2月中旬,我们觉得逆势,跟大家的那种亢奋完全不一样,我们调低了,叫做平衡式结构性行情。\n这种行情全年上下10%,如果从1月的高点来看,到年底很可能叫弱平衡市,涨幅很难有10%。\n这种情况下,我们要留一半清醒,留一半醉,清醒的是海外困难对中国是有压制的,因为它可以透过全球风险敞口的收缩,进而(导致)新兴市场的资产可能都会受到减持,从而阶段性会有一定的压力。\n第2个就是如果全球的基本面都弱,靠放水还是有隐患的。所以不要期待着2015年水牛的重演,既不要太乐观,但是也不要太悲观,留一份理性,也就是下有底。\n你可以看到咱们的一堆价值股,无论是金融地产和传统行业的龙头公司,经过了2016年至今4年的供给侧改革以后,行业竞争格局有非常大的改善,所以行业呈现出优胜劣汰,赢家通吃,胜者为王。\n这些传统行业的优质核心资产分红的能力大大提升,盈利的稳定性也大大提升,抗风险能力更强。从中长期的角度来说,如果海外经济不容乐观,又要放水,那大类资产配置上,全球会有一个风水轮流转(现象)。\n过去的10年是跨在市场持续的强于新兴市场,但是反过来当海外有压力的时候,中国最优秀的这批资产的性价比就凸显了。海外的old money,包括中国国内的保险银行、理财子公司为代表的长线资金,更愿意在大类资产配置中优先配置中国的优秀的、有分红能力的传统行业的核心资产。\n这些恰恰又是中国指数的权重股,所以中国指数下面是有底的,只要不出现全球的金融危机,中国今年的指数大概率就不是一个熊市,而是一个震荡市,上下10%这样的震荡市,下有底,上面可能也是有天花板的。\n全球下行中国反而是避风港 这些领域未来能产生大机会\n然而中国的亮点在结构,因为中国经济的结构调整也是未来延续多年的主脉络,这样的经济结构调整带来中国高质量的发展,能够推动中国结构的优化和高质量发展的是劳动生产率,是科技管理模式的更新,是效率的提升。\n浓缩在一个方向就是中国制造2025的十大领域,一条主线就是数据化、信息化改造我们制造业大国,走向制造业强国,走向智能制造。\n所以中国制造2025将会是结构调整的重要抓手,也是所谓新基建的重要核心。它包括10个领域,比如说硬的有新能源车、5G、半导体等,软的有信息服务、智慧城市,还有类似于云、大数据、互联网,包括各种互联网的应用、5G的应用,以及这次疫情中反映的一些短板,就是高端医疗和生物科技。\n这些领域都是未来能够产生大机会的,甚至能够产生一种上涨10倍或者更大空间的优质的公司,这是机会的沃土。\n在全球都遭遇到经济下行压力的背景下,中国反而是避风港,因为我们无论在疫情的控制,还是财政政策、货币政策的武器库、工具箱里边的工具其实是全球最给力的,执行力最强的,而且我们的工具空间、政策空间也是最大的。\n所以中国在全球动荡中间,人民币资产恰恰形成了避风港的效应,这是从中期的角度,短期还是会受到海外不确定性的影响带来倒春寒。\n短期的倒春寒可能还没有完全结束,大家还要留一半清醒。也许到了3月中下旬,特别是随着海外的疫情变化,看看欧洲的数据能不能见高回落,美国的疫情情况会不会有一些缓和。\n再看3月18号,如果美联储议息会议上有进一步的宽松,包括提到扩表QE或者说进一步的降息(情况)。那时候可能全球的风险偏好risk off阶段会有有所缓和并告一段落,对于中国资产,无论A股还是港股,底部也会更坚实,而且政策的落地能够开始产生一些效果了。\n静态估值偏高的科技股可以等一等 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