+关注
Daniel Z
只做大盘,黄金
IP属地:浙江
17
关注
6
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
Daniel Z
2020-03-09
$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$ 完了完了
Daniel Z
2020-03-06
$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$
艹,开盘打算出货,老师发quiz。然后就爆炸就
Daniel Z
2020-03-04
$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$
看到降息,第一反应,抢金子!!
Daniel Z
2020-02-24
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
[呆住][呆住]
Daniel Z
2020-02-22
去年纳指7700一个小回调,各路大佬就冒出来了,你做空了么?
美股什么时候跌?
Daniel Z
2020-02-11
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$
[微笑]现在做空都要抓一把期权,至少完蛋了还能有个东西装13
Daniel Z
2020-02-10
别分析了,跌两个点就拉回去了。3个点还么拉,大嘴就发推特了。
Daniel Z
2019-11-01
所以如何参与呢
Daniel Z
2019-10-17
$苹果(AAPL)$
[捂脸]这个速度,空票烫手
Daniel Z
2019-10-08
$苹果(AAPL)$
这个逆着大盘拉,我觉得还能再创辉煌
Daniel Z
2019-10-04
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
[哟哟]接飞刀
Daniel Z
2019-09-19
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
全评论看空,那说明…
Daniel Z
2019-09-12
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
有空军么?
Daniel Z
2019-09-10
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
再给诸位讲个鬼故事,评论区全是看多了
Daniel Z
2019-09-06
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
再创辉煌吧
Daniel Z
2019-09-04
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
我给大家讲个鬼故事,社区评论全是做空的。
Daniel Z
2019-08-22
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
?????!!
Daniel Z
2019-08-22
?????
Daniel Z
2019-08-21
逆市死扛,再创辉煌
$黄金主连(GCmain)$
Daniel Z
2019-08-19
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
这个盘真的是第一次见
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3512588107706887","uuid":"3512588107706887","gmtCreate":1549494087165,"gmtModify":1728393923457,"name":"Daniel Z","pinyin":"danielzdanielz","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"只做大盘,黄金","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":17,"tweetSize":50,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.31","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.68%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.83%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"浙江","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":981858780,"gmtCreate":1583726317240,"gmtModify":1704350464788,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$ 完了完了","listText":"$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$ 完了完了","text":"$黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)(GDX)$ 完了完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981858780","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981316595,"gmtCreate":1583507455817,"gmtModify":1704350136309,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a>艹,开盘打算出货,老师发quiz。然后就爆炸就","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a>艹,开盘打算出货,老师发quiz。然后就爆炸就","text":"$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$艹,开盘打算出货,老师发quiz。然后就爆炸就","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981316595","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983670649,"gmtCreate":1583252610781,"gmtModify":1704349261156,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a>看到降息,第一反应,抢金子!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a>看到降息,第一反应,抢金子!!","text":"$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$看到降息,第一反应,抢金子!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79a404e1e1cd8ee545834de46994de5c","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983670649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980292708,"gmtCreate":1582505420404,"gmtModify":1704346581097,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>[呆住][呆住]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>[呆住][呆住]","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$[呆住][呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/980292708","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":980874261,"gmtCreate":1582312555353,"gmtModify":1704346423832,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"去年纳指7700一个小回调,各路大佬就冒出来了,你做空了么?","listText":"去年纳指7700一个小回调,各路大佬就冒出来了,你做空了么?","text":"去年纳指7700一个小回调,各路大佬就冒出来了,你做空了么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/980874261","repostId":"1191529229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191529229","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"100%全部原创,没有一篇转载。全部都是干货,没有任何广告或者软文。覆盖的主题:金融、投资、商业、经济和时事。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"伍治坚证据主义","id":"69","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc"},"pubTimestamp":1582251868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191529229?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-21 10:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股什么时候跌?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191529229","media":"伍治坚证据主义","summary":"虽然几乎每个人都很感兴趣,但这几乎是一个不可能回答的问题。","content":"<p><span>刚刚过去的十年(2009.12.31~2019.12.31)里,美股以标普500全回报指数计,年均涨幅达到了13.6%,是全球表现最出色的资产类别之一。因此,很多人最关心的问题是:</span><span><b>美股什么时候跌?</b></span></p><p><span>为什么会关心这个问题呢?这是因为,在大家的印象里,没有什么资产,是可以一直往上不停涨的。涨的太高太快,一定会跌下来。而跌的太久太低,则一定会触底反弹。盛极必衰,否极泰来,说的就是这个道理。</span></p><p><span>虽然几乎每个人都很感兴趣,但这几乎是一个不可能回答的问题。金融市场,充满了未知数和不确定性。统计分析显示,有大量被打脸的预测错误,却鲜有持续预测成功的例子。</span></p><p><span>举例来说,2016年11月,美国最大的对冲基金之一,桥水基金的CIO团队向其客户发布报告表示:如果特朗普当选美国总统,道琼斯指数将大跌2000点,中国和欧洲的股市也会大跌10%以上。桥水基金的投资策略以全球宏观为主,其专长就是基于他们对于宏观经济走向的判断,做出相应的投资决策。因此该报告被投资界和金融媒体广泛关注。</span></p><p><span>在特朗普当选总统后,全球股市并没有出现大跌。紧接下来的2017年,美国的标普500指数上涨了22%左右。</span></p><p><span>2018年6月1日,被誉为“债券之王”的基金经理比尔·格罗斯在接受采访时指出,美联储在当年的升息已经结束,在下半年不会继续升息。</span></p><p><span>同年的6月13日,美联储将联储基准利率上升到1.75%~2%。接下来,美联储又在9月份和12月份接连升息,最后把基准利率升到了2.25%~2.5%之间。</span></p><p><span>这样的例子,还有很多。美国的一家研究机构CXO,收集了68个投资专家,从2005到2012年做的6,584个预测,然后去统计这些预测的准确性。他们得出的结论让人大吃一惊:这些专家预测的平均成功率,为47%。也就是说,听专家的预测,还不如自己扔个硬币去瞎猜,因为那至少有50%的正确率。</span></p><p><span>专家的预测准确率如此之低,其实并不让人意外。这是因为,首先未来充满了偶然性,受成千上万个不可控变量的影响。如果宏观经济运行规律这么容易预测的话,就不会发生像08年这样的金融危机了。其次,市场对于宏观经济基本面的变化的反应,增加了多一层的不确定性。有时候表面上看似坏消息,但如果市场已经提前消化了的话,到了消息公之于众时,可能反而被解读为“利空出尽”,导致市场上涨,反之亦然。</span></p><p><span>现在,我们回到一开始问的那个问题:美股什么时候会下跌?按照盛极必衰的逻辑,如果前十年是一个大牛市(比如2009-2019),那么接下来的十年(2019-2029),就很有可能是个熊市。</span></p><p><span>从1936年开始的美国股市历史数据显示,前十年的股市回报,和后十年的股市回报之间,没有任何显著的统计关系。两者之间的相关系数为-0.19左右,几乎可以忽略不计。</span></p><p><span>在美国股市历史上,当某一个十年的年回报达到13.6%左右时,接下来的十年中,回报最好的为年均17.5%,回报最差的为年均0.9%。这个分布,和某一个十年年回报在0%时,接下来的十年的回报分布大同小异。也就是说,不管过去十年的年回报为0,还是超过10%,接下来的十年,股市的年回报都有可能介于0%到20%之间。</span></p><p><span>从1936年开始算起,到2019年年底,一共差不多83年。严格来讲,如果只看互不重合的十年区间的话,样本量只有8个,远远达不到在统计上显著的水平。但至少可以确定:没有任何证据表明,牛市以后一定有熊市,或者熊市以后一定有牛市。</span></p><p><span>如果我们把统计区间扩展到20年,则可以发现一个更强的相关关系。两者之间的相关系数,为-0.83左右。也就是说,前20年的股市回报,和后10年的股市回报,有显著的负相关关系。如果前20年回报高,那么后10年的股市回报就会比较低,反之亦然。</span></p><p><span>从1999年年底到2019年年底的20年,美股的回报大约为每年6.3%左右。这个回报,并不算高。在过去80多年中,回报最好的20年,是1980到2000年,年回报大约在16%左右(含红利)。而最差的20年,为1929到1949年,年回报在0左右(含红利)。在美股历史上,如果某个20年的年回报为6.3%,那么接下来的十年,回报区间介于14.9%和18.6%之间。</span></p><p><span>2019年年底,标普500指数收盘价为3230点。如果照上面这个标准来算的话,截至2029年年底,标普500指数将可能上涨到12900点到17700点之间。</span></p><p><span>我知道,很多读者看到这个估计值,肯定会忍不住说:你一定是疯了吧。别说一万多点,哪怕在十年后标普500指数翻一番涨到6000点,我都不相信。但这恰恰是我想提醒大家的地方:从历史来看,股市并不存在“久涨必跌”,或者“久跌必涨”的规律。事实上,如果接下来的10年,标普500指数继续以过去20年的速度,即每年平均6.3%左右的速度上涨的话,到了2029年年底,指数恰恰可以涨到6000点左右。</span></p><p><span>美股,就像任何国家的股市,迟早一定会跌。然而,上面的分析告诉我们,它什么时候跌,没人能提前预知。哪怕是名气再响的专家,言之凿凿,列出很多看上去让人信服的理由,也未必能准确把握到美股下跌的时机。</span></p><p><span>作为一名个人投资者,我们应该时刻记得提醒自己:</span></p><p><b><span>第一、兼听则明,偏信则暗。</span></b></p><p><span>任何时候,市场中总有看多的“牛”,和看空的“熊”。一边倒的“牛市”或者“熊市”,在现实中不存在。过去十年,可谓美国股市的十年大牛市,但其实也一直是“危机”不断,充满各种看跌的因素,比如欧洲债务危机,美国政府停摆,中国经济硬着陆,中美贸易纠纷等。在自己形成了看多,或者看空的观点后,我们要始终不忘记提醒自己,和自己意见相反的观点,是否被自己疏忽遗漏了,是否也有其合理的一面。</span></p><p><b><span>第二、坚持独立思考。</span></b></p><p><span>阅读或者倾听专家的预测,并不是让我们毫无保留的全盘接受专家的观点,而是让我们去检验专家的逻辑和论据,然后帮助自己形成独立的结论。思考的过程,无法外包。专家给出的结论性观点,比如看多,或者看空,往往价值不高。而对我们来说更有价值的,是专家列举的统计数据和分析逻辑。这才是我们更应该花时间思考和研究的对象,而非最后的一个买,或者卖的建议。</span></p><p><b><span>第三、时刻备有方案B。</span></b></p><p><span>由于预测的准确性本来就不高,因此把所有家当都赌在一个预测上,是极端不明智的。我们要始终记得问自己:万一预测错了,会发生什么?应对这种可能性的最好方法,就是在资产、市场、行业等多维度实现广泛的多元分散。这样,即使遇到大家都没有想到的意外,至少也不会全军覆没。</span></p><p><b><span>第四、放弃择时。</span></b></p><p><span>大量的研究表明,想要通过择时去抓住股市的高点和低点,然后在高点卖出,低点买入,难度非常高,往往得不偿失。股市的上涨,和下跌一样,无法预测。在刚刚过去2019年,美股含红利上涨了31%。这个回报,让很多投资者大吃一惊。而那些在2018年看空股市,卖出或者做空的投资者,就在2019年蒙受了巨大损失。更明智的做法,是拉长投资期限,通过耐心的长期持有和多元分散,获得更好的投资回报。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股什么时候跌?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股什么时候跌?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/69\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">伍治坚证据主义 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-02-21 10:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>刚刚过去的十年(2009.12.31~2019.12.31)里,美股以标普500全回报指数计,年均涨幅达到了13.6%,是全球表现最出色的资产类别之一。因此,很多人最关心的问题是:</span><span><b>美股什么时候跌?</b></span></p><p><span>为什么会关心这个问题呢?这是因为,在大家的印象里,没有什么资产,是可以一直往上不停涨的。涨的太高太快,一定会跌下来。而跌的太久太低,则一定会触底反弹。盛极必衰,否极泰来,说的就是这个道理。</span></p><p><span>虽然几乎每个人都很感兴趣,但这几乎是一个不可能回答的问题。金融市场,充满了未知数和不确定性。统计分析显示,有大量被打脸的预测错误,却鲜有持续预测成功的例子。</span></p><p><span>举例来说,2016年11月,美国最大的对冲基金之一,桥水基金的CIO团队向其客户发布报告表示:如果特朗普当选美国总统,道琼斯指数将大跌2000点,中国和欧洲的股市也会大跌10%以上。桥水基金的投资策略以全球宏观为主,其专长就是基于他们对于宏观经济走向的判断,做出相应的投资决策。因此该报告被投资界和金融媒体广泛关注。</span></p><p><span>在特朗普当选总统后,全球股市并没有出现大跌。紧接下来的2017年,美国的标普500指数上涨了22%左右。</span></p><p><span>2018年6月1日,被誉为“债券之王”的基金经理比尔·格罗斯在接受采访时指出,美联储在当年的升息已经结束,在下半年不会继续升息。</span></p><p><span>同年的6月13日,美联储将联储基准利率上升到1.75%~2%。接下来,美联储又在9月份和12月份接连升息,最后把基准利率升到了2.25%~2.5%之间。</span></p><p><span>这样的例子,还有很多。美国的一家研究机构CXO,收集了68个投资专家,从2005到2012年做的6,584个预测,然后去统计这些预测的准确性。他们得出的结论让人大吃一惊:这些专家预测的平均成功率,为47%。也就是说,听专家的预测,还不如自己扔个硬币去瞎猜,因为那至少有50%的正确率。</span></p><p><span>专家的预测准确率如此之低,其实并不让人意外。这是因为,首先未来充满了偶然性,受成千上万个不可控变量的影响。如果宏观经济运行规律这么容易预测的话,就不会发生像08年这样的金融危机了。其次,市场对于宏观经济基本面的变化的反应,增加了多一层的不确定性。有时候表面上看似坏消息,但如果市场已经提前消化了的话,到了消息公之于众时,可能反而被解读为“利空出尽”,导致市场上涨,反之亦然。</span></p><p><span>现在,我们回到一开始问的那个问题:美股什么时候会下跌?按照盛极必衰的逻辑,如果前十年是一个大牛市(比如2009-2019),那么接下来的十年(2019-2029),就很有可能是个熊市。</span></p><p><span>从1936年开始的美国股市历史数据显示,前十年的股市回报,和后十年的股市回报之间,没有任何显著的统计关系。两者之间的相关系数为-0.19左右,几乎可以忽略不计。</span></p><p><span>在美国股市历史上,当某一个十年的年回报达到13.6%左右时,接下来的十年中,回报最好的为年均17.5%,回报最差的为年均0.9%。这个分布,和某一个十年年回报在0%时,接下来的十年的回报分布大同小异。也就是说,不管过去十年的年回报为0,还是超过10%,接下来的十年,股市的年回报都有可能介于0%到20%之间。</span></p><p><span>从1936年开始算起,到2019年年底,一共差不多83年。严格来讲,如果只看互不重合的十年区间的话,样本量只有8个,远远达不到在统计上显著的水平。但至少可以确定:没有任何证据表明,牛市以后一定有熊市,或者熊市以后一定有牛市。</span></p><p><span>如果我们把统计区间扩展到20年,则可以发现一个更强的相关关系。两者之间的相关系数,为-0.83左右。也就是说,前20年的股市回报,和后10年的股市回报,有显著的负相关关系。如果前20年回报高,那么后10年的股市回报就会比较低,反之亦然。</span></p><p><span>从1999年年底到2019年年底的20年,美股的回报大约为每年6.3%左右。这个回报,并不算高。在过去80多年中,回报最好的20年,是1980到2000年,年回报大约在16%左右(含红利)。而最差的20年,为1929到1949年,年回报在0左右(含红利)。在美股历史上,如果某个20年的年回报为6.3%,那么接下来的十年,回报区间介于14.9%和18.6%之间。</span></p><p><span>2019年年底,标普500指数收盘价为3230点。如果照上面这个标准来算的话,截至2029年年底,标普500指数将可能上涨到12900点到17700点之间。</span></p><p><span>我知道,很多读者看到这个估计值,肯定会忍不住说:你一定是疯了吧。别说一万多点,哪怕在十年后标普500指数翻一番涨到6000点,我都不相信。但这恰恰是我想提醒大家的地方:从历史来看,股市并不存在“久涨必跌”,或者“久跌必涨”的规律。事实上,如果接下来的10年,标普500指数继续以过去20年的速度,即每年平均6.3%左右的速度上涨的话,到了2029年年底,指数恰恰可以涨到6000点左右。</span></p><p><span>美股,就像任何国家的股市,迟早一定会跌。然而,上面的分析告诉我们,它什么时候跌,没人能提前预知。哪怕是名气再响的专家,言之凿凿,列出很多看上去让人信服的理由,也未必能准确把握到美股下跌的时机。</span></p><p><span>作为一名个人投资者,我们应该时刻记得提醒自己:</span></p><p><b><span>第一、兼听则明,偏信则暗。</span></b></p><p><span>任何时候,市场中总有看多的“牛”,和看空的“熊”。一边倒的“牛市”或者“熊市”,在现实中不存在。过去十年,可谓美国股市的十年大牛市,但其实也一直是“危机”不断,充满各种看跌的因素,比如欧洲债务危机,美国政府停摆,中国经济硬着陆,中美贸易纠纷等。在自己形成了看多,或者看空的观点后,我们要始终不忘记提醒自己,和自己意见相反的观点,是否被自己疏忽遗漏了,是否也有其合理的一面。</span></p><p><b><span>第二、坚持独立思考。</span></b></p><p><span>阅读或者倾听专家的预测,并不是让我们毫无保留的全盘接受专家的观点,而是让我们去检验专家的逻辑和论据,然后帮助自己形成独立的结论。思考的过程,无法外包。专家给出的结论性观点,比如看多,或者看空,往往价值不高。而对我们来说更有价值的,是专家列举的统计数据和分析逻辑。这才是我们更应该花时间思考和研究的对象,而非最后的一个买,或者卖的建议。</span></p><p><b><span>第三、时刻备有方案B。</span></b></p><p><span>由于预测的准确性本来就不高,因此把所有家当都赌在一个预测上,是极端不明智的。我们要始终记得问自己:万一预测错了,会发生什么?应对这种可能性的最好方法,就是在资产、市场、行业等多维度实现广泛的多元分散。这样,即使遇到大家都没有想到的意外,至少也不会全军覆没。</span></p><p><b><span>第四、放弃择时。</span></b></p><p><span>大量的研究表明,想要通过择时去抓住股市的高点和低点,然后在高点卖出,低点买入,难度非常高,往往得不偿失。股市的上涨,和下跌一样,无法预测。在刚刚过去2019年,美股含红利上涨了31%。这个回报,让很多投资者大吃一惊。而那些在2018年看空股市,卖出或者做空的投资者,就在2019年蒙受了巨大损失。更明智的做法,是拉长投资期限,通过耐心的长期持有和多元分散,获得更好的投资回报。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36d21c387a665d1009bd29dd286d18d3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191529229","content_text":"刚刚过去的十年(2009.12.31~2019.12.31)里,美股以标普500全回报指数计,年均涨幅达到了13.6%,是全球表现最出色的资产类别之一。因此,很多人最关心的问题是:美股什么时候跌?为什么会关心这个问题呢?这是因为,在大家的印象里,没有什么资产,是可以一直往上不停涨的。涨的太高太快,一定会跌下来。而跌的太久太低,则一定会触底反弹。盛极必衰,否极泰来,说的就是这个道理。虽然几乎每个人都很感兴趣,但这几乎是一个不可能回答的问题。金融市场,充满了未知数和不确定性。统计分析显示,有大量被打脸的预测错误,却鲜有持续预测成功的例子。举例来说,2016年11月,美国最大的对冲基金之一,桥水基金的CIO团队向其客户发布报告表示:如果特朗普当选美国总统,道琼斯指数将大跌2000点,中国和欧洲的股市也会大跌10%以上。桥水基金的投资策略以全球宏观为主,其专长就是基于他们对于宏观经济走向的判断,做出相应的投资决策。因此该报告被投资界和金融媒体广泛关注。在特朗普当选总统后,全球股市并没有出现大跌。紧接下来的2017年,美国的标普500指数上涨了22%左右。2018年6月1日,被誉为“债券之王”的基金经理比尔·格罗斯在接受采访时指出,美联储在当年的升息已经结束,在下半年不会继续升息。同年的6月13日,美联储将联储基准利率上升到1.75%~2%。接下来,美联储又在9月份和12月份接连升息,最后把基准利率升到了2.25%~2.5%之间。这样的例子,还有很多。美国的一家研究机构CXO,收集了68个投资专家,从2005到2012年做的6,584个预测,然后去统计这些预测的准确性。他们得出的结论让人大吃一惊:这些专家预测的平均成功率,为47%。也就是说,听专家的预测,还不如自己扔个硬币去瞎猜,因为那至少有50%的正确率。专家的预测准确率如此之低,其实并不让人意外。这是因为,首先未来充满了偶然性,受成千上万个不可控变量的影响。如果宏观经济运行规律这么容易预测的话,就不会发生像08年这样的金融危机了。其次,市场对于宏观经济基本面的变化的反应,增加了多一层的不确定性。有时候表面上看似坏消息,但如果市场已经提前消化了的话,到了消息公之于众时,可能反而被解读为“利空出尽”,导致市场上涨,反之亦然。现在,我们回到一开始问的那个问题:美股什么时候会下跌?按照盛极必衰的逻辑,如果前十年是一个大牛市(比如2009-2019),那么接下来的十年(2019-2029),就很有可能是个熊市。从1936年开始的美国股市历史数据显示,前十年的股市回报,和后十年的股市回报之间,没有任何显著的统计关系。两者之间的相关系数为-0.19左右,几乎可以忽略不计。在美国股市历史上,当某一个十年的年回报达到13.6%左右时,接下来的十年中,回报最好的为年均17.5%,回报最差的为年均0.9%。这个分布,和某一个十年年回报在0%时,接下来的十年的回报分布大同小异。也就是说,不管过去十年的年回报为0,还是超过10%,接下来的十年,股市的年回报都有可能介于0%到20%之间。从1936年开始算起,到2019年年底,一共差不多83年。严格来讲,如果只看互不重合的十年区间的话,样本量只有8个,远远达不到在统计上显著的水平。但至少可以确定:没有任何证据表明,牛市以后一定有熊市,或者熊市以后一定有牛市。如果我们把统计区间扩展到20年,则可以发现一个更强的相关关系。两者之间的相关系数,为-0.83左右。也就是说,前20年的股市回报,和后10年的股市回报,有显著的负相关关系。如果前20年回报高,那么后10年的股市回报就会比较低,反之亦然。从1999年年底到2019年年底的20年,美股的回报大约为每年6.3%左右。这个回报,并不算高。在过去80多年中,回报最好的20年,是1980到2000年,年回报大约在16%左右(含红利)。而最差的20年,为1929到1949年,年回报在0左右(含红利)。在美股历史上,如果某个20年的年回报为6.3%,那么接下来的十年,回报区间介于14.9%和18.6%之间。2019年年底,标普500指数收盘价为3230点。如果照上面这个标准来算的话,截至2029年年底,标普500指数将可能上涨到12900点到17700点之间。我知道,很多读者看到这个估计值,肯定会忍不住说:你一定是疯了吧。别说一万多点,哪怕在十年后标普500指数翻一番涨到6000点,我都不相信。但这恰恰是我想提醒大家的地方:从历史来看,股市并不存在“久涨必跌”,或者“久跌必涨”的规律。事实上,如果接下来的10年,标普500指数继续以过去20年的速度,即每年平均6.3%左右的速度上涨的话,到了2029年年底,指数恰恰可以涨到6000点左右。美股,就像任何国家的股市,迟早一定会跌。然而,上面的分析告诉我们,它什么时候跌,没人能提前预知。哪怕是名气再响的专家,言之凿凿,列出很多看上去让人信服的理由,也未必能准确把握到美股下跌的时机。作为一名个人投资者,我们应该时刻记得提醒自己:第一、兼听则明,偏信则暗。任何时候,市场中总有看多的“牛”,和看空的“熊”。一边倒的“牛市”或者“熊市”,在现实中不存在。过去十年,可谓美国股市的十年大牛市,但其实也一直是“危机”不断,充满各种看跌的因素,比如欧洲债务危机,美国政府停摆,中国经济硬着陆,中美贸易纠纷等。在自己形成了看多,或者看空的观点后,我们要始终不忘记提醒自己,和自己意见相反的观点,是否被自己疏忽遗漏了,是否也有其合理的一面。第二、坚持独立思考。阅读或者倾听专家的预测,并不是让我们毫无保留的全盘接受专家的观点,而是让我们去检验专家的逻辑和论据,然后帮助自己形成独立的结论。思考的过程,无法外包。专家给出的结论性观点,比如看多,或者看空,往往价值不高。而对我们来说更有价值的,是专家列举的统计数据和分析逻辑。这才是我们更应该花时间思考和研究的对象,而非最后的一个买,或者卖的建议。第三、时刻备有方案B。由于预测的准确性本来就不高,因此把所有家当都赌在一个预测上,是极端不明智的。我们要始终记得问自己:万一预测错了,会发生什么?应对这种可能性的最好方法,就是在资产、市场、行业等多维度实现广泛的多元分散。这样,即使遇到大家都没有想到的意外,至少也不会全军覆没。第四、放弃择时。大量的研究表明,想要通过择时去抓住股市的高点和低点,然后在高点卖出,低点买入,难度非常高,往往得不偿失。股市的上涨,和下跌一样,无法预测。在刚刚过去2019年,美股含红利上涨了31%。这个回报,让很多投资者大吃一惊。而那些在2018年看空股市,卖出或者做空的投资者,就在2019年蒙受了巨大损失。更明智的做法,是拉长投资期限,通过耐心的长期持有和多元分散,获得更好的投资回报。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914489193,"gmtCreate":1581435527612,"gmtModify":1704344180809,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指ETF(QQQ)$</a>[微笑]现在做空都要抓一把期权,至少完蛋了还能有个东西装13","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指ETF(QQQ)$</a>[微笑]现在做空都要抓一把期权,至少完蛋了还能有个东西装13","text":"$纳指ETF(QQQ)$[微笑]现在做空都要抓一把期权,至少完蛋了还能有个东西装13","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914489193","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914612677,"gmtCreate":1581305776899,"gmtModify":1704343761879,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别分析了,跌两个点就拉回去了。3个点还么拉,大嘴就发推特了。","listText":"别分析了,跌两个点就拉回去了。3个点还么拉,大嘴就发推特了。","text":"别分析了,跌两个点就拉回去了。3个点还么拉,大嘴就发推特了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914612677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":932977931,"gmtCreate":1572540299523,"gmtModify":1704724613596,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"所以如何参与呢","listText":"所以如何参与呢","text":"所以如何参与呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/932977931","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":938330753,"gmtCreate":1571243588472,"gmtModify":1704722087988,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>[捂脸]这个速度,空票烫手","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>[捂脸]这个速度,空票烫手","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$[捂脸]这个速度,空票烫手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/938330753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":931351826,"gmtCreate":1570541994465,"gmtModify":1704720880445,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>这个逆着大盘拉,我觉得还能再创辉煌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>这个逆着大盘拉,我觉得还能再创辉煌","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$这个逆着大盘拉,我觉得还能再创辉煌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd149eccb47a04412f16c459a07edc3d","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/931351826","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522545820169723","authorId":"3522545820169723","name":"秋赤音","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5f9e35aed6574ae569a8d43dd7254e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522545820169723","authorIdStr":"3522545820169723"},"content":"兵败如山倒","text":"兵败如山倒","html":"兵败如山倒"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":933723600,"gmtCreate":1570130076100,"gmtModify":1704720512505,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>[哟哟]接飞刀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>[哟哟]接飞刀","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$[哟哟]接飞刀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f430ac9e201187a04e7c7d545a2d9795","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/933723600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":939347625,"gmtCreate":1568824080367,"gmtModify":1704718414047,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>全评论看空,那说明…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>全评论看空,那说明…","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$全评论看空,那说明…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939347625","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930629886,"gmtCreate":1568232203145,"gmtModify":1704717524159,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>有空军么?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>有空军么?","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$有空军么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930629886","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515879069704654","authorId":"3515879069704654","name":"奇迹的杨","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3515879069704654","authorIdStr":"3515879069704654"},"content":"小空了一下,随时准备跑。这两天都是尾盘狂拉,不知道要拉到多高?","text":"小空了一下,随时准备跑。这两天都是尾盘狂拉,不知道要拉到多高?","html":"小空了一下,随时准备跑。这两天都是尾盘狂拉,不知道要拉到多高?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930355436,"gmtCreate":1568061708825,"gmtModify":1704717163572,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>再给诸位讲个鬼故事,评论区全是看多了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>再给诸位讲个鬼故事,评论区全是看多了","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$再给诸位讲个鬼故事,评论区全是看多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930355436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997737183,"gmtCreate":1567728510642,"gmtModify":1704716713523,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>再创辉煌吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>再创辉煌吧","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$再创辉煌吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/997737183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997516044,"gmtCreate":1567611743288,"gmtModify":1704716471024,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我给大家讲个鬼故事,社区评论全是做空的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我给大家讲个鬼故事,社区评论全是做空的。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$我给大家讲个鬼故事,社区评论全是做空的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/997516044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3506153078214938","authorIdStr":"3506153078214938"},"content":"你要遭重了,很多人其实没做空。都在等拉得更高点,再空。胆子大的在做多。 就是说实际没空头。","text":"你要遭重了,很多人其实没做空。都在等拉得更高点,再空。胆子大的在做多。 就是说实际没空头。","html":"你要遭重了,很多人其实没做空。都在等拉得更高点,再空。胆子大的在做多。 就是说实际没空头。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":994917914,"gmtCreate":1566425892638,"gmtModify":1704714383358,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>?????!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>?????!!","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$?????!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/994917914","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":994914776,"gmtCreate":1566425865295,"gmtModify":1704714383185,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????","listText":"?????","text":"?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/994914776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":995777998,"gmtCreate":1566360976014,"gmtModify":1704714203138,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"逆市死扛,再创辉煌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>","listText":"逆市死扛,再创辉煌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连(GCmain)$</a>","text":"逆市死扛,再创辉煌$黄金主连(GCmain)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79452ba41b4d1dba41957254d18935c9","width":"1062","height":"690"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995777998","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995257611,"gmtCreate":1566188545033,"gmtModify":1704713781949,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>这个盘真的是第一次见","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>这个盘真的是第一次见","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$这个盘真的是第一次见","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995257611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":999934678,"gmtCreate":1562930343894,"gmtModify":1704704585283,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a> 感觉游资来收韭菜了,今天准备17开空。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a> 感觉游资来收韭菜了,今天准备17开空。","text":"$新氧(SY)$ 感觉游资来收韭菜了,今天准备17开空。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":33,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/999934678","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"28293958032181","authorId":"28293958032181","name":"小龙虾投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a99521811b61946f6325f13e46f12b6f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"28293958032181","authorIdStr":"28293958032181"},"content":"你们真顽皮","text":"你们真顽皮","html":"你们真顽皮"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995968368,"gmtCreate":1565790459754,"gmtModify":1704713096578,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">$The RealReal(REAL)$</a>真的秀,高于预期的财报把盘砸了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REAL\">$The RealReal(REAL)$</a>真的秀,高于预期的财报把盘砸了","text":"$The RealReal(REAL)$真的秀,高于预期的财报把盘砸了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995968368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519832254064216","authorId":"3519832254064216","name":"啊呜喵喵喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0da0733312b8c815c2c72eeffccf23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3519832254064216","authorIdStr":"3519832254064216"},"content":"17的持仓,继续拿着,看多到20","text":"17的持仓,继续拿着,看多到20","html":"17的持仓,继续拿着,看多到20"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993724273,"gmtCreate":1564368361092,"gmtModify":1704706955364,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>逆市死扛,再创辉煌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>逆市死扛,再创辉煌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$逆市死扛,再创辉煌$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79452ba41b4d1dba41957254d18935c9","width":"1062","height":"690"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993724273","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519832254064216","authorId":"3519832254064216","name":"啊呜喵喵喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0da0733312b8c815c2c72eeffccf23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3519832254064216","authorIdStr":"3519832254064216"},"content":"[捂脸]看来你最近手气不好啊","text":"[捂脸]看来你最近手气不好啊","html":"[捂脸]看来你最近手气不好啊"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997516044,"gmtCreate":1567611743288,"gmtModify":1704716471024,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我给大家讲个鬼故事,社区评论全是做空的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>我给大家讲个鬼故事,社区评论全是做空的。","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$我给大家讲个鬼故事,社区评论全是做空的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/997516044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3506153078214938","authorId":"3506153078214938","name":"雪崩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51161e985eca732d547e36570f5522dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3506153078214938","authorIdStr":"3506153078214938"},"content":"你要遭重了,很多人其实没做空。都在等拉得更高点,再空。胆子大的在做多。 就是说实际没空头。","text":"你要遭重了,很多人其实没做空。都在等拉得更高点,再空。胆子大的在做多。 就是说实际没空头。","html":"你要遭重了,很多人其实没做空。都在等拉得更高点,再空。胆子大的在做多。 就是说实际没空头。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":904635653,"gmtCreate":1561018517472,"gmtModify":1704701253388,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 这个盘前看涨的太夸张了吧,我买空","listText":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 这个盘前看涨的太夸张了吧,我买空","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 这个盘前看涨的太夸张了吧,我买空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/904635653","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3521813311663392","authorId":"3521813311663392","name":"妙儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1538597d7512551570d35632aeb44271","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3521813311663392","authorIdStr":"3521813311663392"},"content":"我开盘34.05买入,34.73卖出,今晚米其林大餐有了😎","text":"我开盘34.05买入,34.73卖出,今晚米其林大餐有了😎","html":"我开盘34.05买入,34.73卖出,今晚米其林大餐有了😎"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":999158194,"gmtCreate":1563200176418,"gmtModify":1704704886994,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a> 15.66平 1/4感觉现在很多空头在平仓,继续等。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a> 15.66平 1/4感觉现在很多空头在平仓,继续等。","text":"$新氧(SY)$ 15.66平 1/4感觉现在很多空头在平仓,继续等。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/999158194","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519832254064216","authorId":"3519832254064216","name":"啊呜喵喵喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0da0733312b8c815c2c72eeffccf23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3519832254064216","authorIdStr":"3519832254064216"},"content":"我空票持仓16.6,挂单14.6平仓。不信它不下来,卖假药,刷单的玩意","text":"我空票持仓16.6,挂单14.6平仓。不信它不下来,卖假药,刷单的玩意","html":"我空票持仓16.6,挂单14.6平仓。不信它不下来,卖假药,刷单的玩意"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":907090574,"gmtCreate":1561392113298,"gmtModify":1704701875011,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 空军大佬们,让我回回血吧。","listText":"$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 空军大佬们,让我回回血吧。","text":"$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 空军大佬们,让我回回血吧。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07bdca612bed6fea3fc252b8a2d3dcc"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907090574","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499983664065274","authorId":"3499983664065274","name":"就是要赚翻天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652330aa1df9956bfcc0d377aaf98ea9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499983664065274","authorIdStr":"3499983664065274"},"content":"准备好赔钱吧","text":"准备好赔钱吧","html":"准备好赔钱吧"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":904483718,"gmtCreate":1561181797034,"gmtModify":1704701653493,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$FUT:黄金主连(GCmain)$ 全仓两倍空 $二倍做空黄金ETF(ProShares)(GLL)$","listText":"$FUT:黄金主连(GCmain)$ 全仓两倍空 $二倍做空黄金ETF(ProShares)(GLL)$","text":"$FUT:黄金主连(GCmain)$ 全仓两倍空 $二倍做空黄金ETF(ProShares)(GLL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/904483718","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3516188019373099","authorId":"3516188019373099","name":"唐米半","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0b7ac56778b5f9cc2724c4a0d12d56","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3516188019373099","authorIdStr":"3516188019373099"},"content":"小心被拉爆空头 [开心]做空要在拉爆后做反手","text":"小心被拉爆空头 [开心]做空要在拉爆后做反手","html":"小心被拉爆空头 [开心]做空要在拉爆后做反手"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":999620631,"gmtCreate":1563332143023,"gmtModify":1704705128151,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a> 我觉得空军太着急了,短线多一把<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a> 等赌一下会不会碰到止损线","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a> 我觉得空军太着急了,短线多一把<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UWT\">$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$</a> 等赌一下会不会碰到止损线","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 我觉得空军太着急了,短线多一把$三倍做多原油ETN(UWT)$ 等赌一下会不会碰到止损线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/999620631","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3455791231325514","authorId":"3455791231325514","name":"笑谈风生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/283282ee142fa7f86d284f4312ce177c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3455791231325514","authorIdStr":"3455791231325514"},"content":"轻多见好就收!","text":"轻多见好就收!","html":"轻多见好就收!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993229736,"gmtCreate":1564070916825,"gmtModify":1704706554484,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>纪念一下[捂脸]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>纪念一下[捂脸]","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$纪念一下[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030b2631cbf73f80174baaf94897e21b","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993229736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519832254064216","authorId":"3519832254064216","name":"啊呜喵喵喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f0da0733312b8c815c2c72eeffccf23","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3519832254064216","authorIdStr":"3519832254064216"},"content":"你这个时间太近了,往后推半个月就好了","text":"你这个时间太近了,往后推半个月就好了","html":"你这个时间太近了,往后推半个月就好了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":907262611,"gmtCreate":1561791877633,"gmtModify":1704702703941,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"玩了近两周了,感谢炒股大赛吧,给我一个穷学生all in 的快乐。 因为这个排名机制吧,他对于妖股的需求比较大。 我关注的妖股比较少,只能挑大波动的加杠杆。 我建议老虎给一些稳定得大公司一定的权重加成。 一味求快其实是违背市场规律的。 祝大家实盘发财~","listText":"玩了近两周了,感谢炒股大赛吧,给我一个穷学生all in 的快乐。 因为这个排名机制吧,他对于妖股的需求比较大。 我关注的妖股比较少,只能挑大波动的加杠杆。 我建议老虎给一些稳定得大公司一定的权重加成。 一味求快其实是违背市场规律的。 祝大家实盘发财~","text":"玩了近两周了,感谢炒股大赛吧,给我一个穷学生all in 的快乐。 因为这个排名机制吧,他对于妖股的需求比较大。 我关注的妖股比较少,只能挑大波动的加杠杆。 我建议老虎给一些稳定得大公司一定的权重加成。 一味求快其实是违背市场规律的。 祝大家实盘发财~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e2bc186465f1b8fe83af2f95bc92d03"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/907262611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20735202555522","authorId":"20735202555522","name":"张小凡","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3b533bda67200462c7a58c98ee4398f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"20735202555522","authorIdStr":"20735202555522"},"content":"好厉害 楼主收益率好高","text":"好厉害 楼主收益率好高","html":"好厉害 楼主收益率好高"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991371740,"gmtCreate":1564579658580,"gmtModify":1704707386117,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>梭哈,决定命运的时刻即将来临。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>梭哈,决定命运的时刻即将来临。","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$梭哈,决定命运的时刻即将来临。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991371740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930629886,"gmtCreate":1568232203145,"gmtModify":1704717524159,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>有空军么?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>有空军么?","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$有空军么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930629886","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515879069704654","authorId":"3515879069704654","name":"奇迹的杨","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3515879069704654","authorIdStr":"3515879069704654"},"content":"小空了一下,随时准备跑。这两天都是尾盘狂拉,不知道要拉到多高?","text":"小空了一下,随时准备跑。这两天都是尾盘狂拉,不知道要拉到多高?","html":"小空了一下,随时准备跑。这两天都是尾盘狂拉,不知道要拉到多高?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991169569,"gmtCreate":1564599686651,"gmtModify":1704707460341,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>溜了呀溜了呀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>溜了呀溜了呀","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$溜了呀溜了呀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e2b64ae58be060acca3907811f45e32","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991169569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992561431,"gmtCreate":1565492197523,"gmtModify":1704712563519,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>真不明白,晒期权收益有什么意思,其实我已经亏吐血了。但是我还在一堆200%+收益的可以晒","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>真不明白,晒期权收益有什么意思,其实我已经亏吐血了。但是我还在一堆200%+收益的可以晒","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$真不明白,晒期权收益有什么意思,其实我已经亏吐血了。但是我还在一堆200%+收益的可以晒","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb4795ccfc1fa9939e007d7b23accd6","width":"1242","height":"1350"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992561431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519944589551312","authorId":"3519944589551312","name":"苦心磨练","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3519944589551312","authorIdStr":"3519944589551312"},"content":"没有必要的,有喜欢晒的,有不喜欢晒的,个人性格吧!但作为看客,我到喜欢看各种晒,挺刺激的!","text":"没有必要的,有喜欢晒的,有不喜欢晒的,个人性格吧!但作为看客,我到喜欢看各种晒,挺刺激的!","html":"没有必要的,有喜欢晒的,有不喜欢晒的,个人性格吧!但作为看客,我到喜欢看各种晒,挺刺激的!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993062313,"gmtCreate":1563584413332,"gmtModify":1704705769581,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a> 期权的心里苦","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a> 期权的心里苦","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ 期权的心里苦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993062313","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3511360043993023","authorId":"3511360043993023","name":"NaNa说美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf7d4b4970b8413fdd47c7151d67938","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3511360043993023","authorIdStr":"3511360043993023"},"content":"真的很苦[喷血][喷血][喷血]","text":"真的很苦[喷血][喷血][喷血]","html":"真的很苦[喷血][喷血][喷血]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983670649,"gmtCreate":1583252610781,"gmtModify":1704349261156,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a>看到降息,第一反应,抢金子!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NUGT\">$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$</a>看到降息,第一反应,抢金子!!","text":"$三倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion(NUGT)$看到降息,第一反应,抢金子!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79a404e1e1cd8ee545834de46994de5c","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983670649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992424349,"gmtCreate":1565623465581,"gmtModify":1704712715065,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>V起来啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>V起来啊","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$V起来啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992424349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":939347625,"gmtCreate":1568824080367,"gmtModify":1704718414047,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>全评论看空,那说明…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>全评论看空,那说明…","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$全评论看空,那说明…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939347625","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":994917914,"gmtCreate":1566425892638,"gmtModify":1704714383358,"author":{"id":"3512588107706887","authorId":"3512588107706887","name":"Daniel Z","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512588107706887","authorIdStr":"3512588107706887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>?????!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a>?????!!","text":"$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$?????!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/994917914","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}