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涨跌两开花
2020-09-29
$中国恒大(03333)$
要是真的话,现在只是拉高收割空头,再暴跌收割多头。
涨跌两开花
2020-07-25
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
专门学金融的都乖乖地在银行上班摸鱼,所以小赌怡情乐乐就算了。
涨跌两开花
2020-07-22
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
就这势头,这个月A股必上4000!然后牛市十年破三万,赶超恒生纳克道琼斯!每年A股翻一翻,人均居家投资不用干。舒服了吧,喷子们。
涨跌两开花
2020-07-21
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
应该是先震荡一段时间,把一被割韭菜的人先套牢,再等新韭菜“抄底”,再一锅端。
涨跌两开花
2020-07-17
$小米集团-W(01810)$
大起大落可还行
涨跌两开花
2020-06-21
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
反正看不清行情,我不玩,随便你了怎么拉,抄底的时候叫我一下就行了。
涨跌两开花
2020-04-21
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
太多人等着上车冲3000大赚一笔呢,所以这怎么可能独立行情?当大家(韭菜)都觉得跌到无底洞的时候就会大涨了233333
涨跌两开花
2020-04-10
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
噶帝国主义的韭菜,名族企业啊23333
涨跌两开花
2020-04-07
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
太妖了,我一入他就暴跌,然后各种操作勉强回个本,清明前以为是跳车,然后他今天就大涨。接下来不用看,剧本我都写好了,如果我今天上车明天不是暴跌就是震荡个一星期然后暴跌然后又是漫长苦逼的持仓…
涨跌两开花
2020-04-07
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
然后明天大A高开低走233
涨跌两开花
2020-03-30
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
现在世界都在抢中国订单,我不知道他跌个🐔儿。
涨跌两开花
2020-03-25
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
北上如果进场,三千点以上。
涨跌两开花
2020-03-23
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
大A跌还不是因为之前一直买买买买的北向每天几十亿地一直在流出
涨跌两开花
2020-03-23
那国家队开啦啊……
一行两会重磅发声!六大机构:A股已达“估值底”
涨跌两开花
2020-03-20
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
我是韭菜,我抄的了大A,你们可以割我了!
涨跌两开花
2020-03-17
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
恐慌抛售,崩盘一触即发 ❌华尔街日常噶韭菜✅华尔街那群人,恨不得每天都有爆炸性新闻,不然都没理由噶韭菜了……
涨跌两开花
2020-03-17
$波音(BA)$
波音这种实体企业都这么惨,那些互联网公司是有多大的泡沫?还是说实体经济不值钱了?
涨跌两开花
2020-03-17
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
砸盘咋到比还2月3号还低了,是不是该国家队了……
涨跌两开花
2020-03-14
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
我怎么感觉这是华尔街跑路前都不忘收韭菜,暴打空头干多头……但是美股多是机构投行,散户也不多啊。
涨跌两开花
2020-03-13
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
外资流出百亿,还拉得这么猛,看来是不让跌啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>现在世界都在抢中国订单,我不知道他跌个🐔儿。","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$现在世界都在抢中国订单,我不知道他跌个🐔儿。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/929581410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485396550465164","authorId":"3485396550465164","name":"009fk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fa49624f33c828a0b5d2c5845f22849","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3485396550465164","authorIdStr":"3485396550465164"},"content":"抢订单? 确定不是梦中?","text":"抢订单? 确定不是梦中?","html":"抢订单? 确定不是梦中?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920413732,"gmtCreate":1585101421226,"gmtModify":1704356911506,"author":{"id":"3509840649108739","authorId":"3509840649108739","name":"涨跌两开花","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509840649108739","authorIdStr":"3509840649108739"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>北上如果进场,三千点以上。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>北上如果进场,三千点以上。","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$北上如果进场,三千点以上。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920413732","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920106811,"gmtCreate":1584941770233,"gmtModify":1704356193498,"author":{"id":"3509840649108739","authorId":"3509840649108739","name":"涨跌两开花","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509840649108739","authorIdStr":"3509840649108739"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>大A跌还不是因为之前一直买买买买的北向每天几十亿地一直在流出","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>大A跌还不是因为之前一直买买买买的北向每天几十亿地一直在流出","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$大A跌还不是因为之前一直买买买买的北向每天几十亿地一直在流出","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920106811","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522187473463626","authorId":"3522187473463626","name":"快乐是一种信仰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c33464640929357c0dd6b0726ef42fe9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522187473463626","authorIdStr":"3522187473463626"},"content":"北向是指国外的资金吗?还是北上广深的资金。","text":"北向是指国外的资金吗?还是北上广深的资金。","html":"北向是指国外的资金吗?还是北上广深的资金。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920344803,"gmtCreate":1584932647102,"gmtModify":1704356168260,"author":{"id":"3509840649108739","authorId":"3509840649108739","name":"涨跌两开花","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509840649108739","authorIdStr":"3509840649108739"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那国家队开啦啊……","listText":"那国家队开啦啊……","text":"那国家队开啦啊……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920344803","repostId":"1176403510","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176403510","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业,总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1584930740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176403510?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-23 10:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"一行两会重磅发声!六大机构:A股已达“估值底”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176403510","media":"Wind万得","summary":"一行两会周末重磅发声。\n3月22日,国务院新闻办公室召开发布会,一行两会及外汇局相关领导分别就金融市场等相关情况做出介绍,涉及货币政策、金融开放、A股估值、市场流动性等多个市场热点问题。\n关于金融稳定","content":"<p>一行两会周末重磅发声。</p>\n<p>3月22日,国务院新闻办公室召开发布会,一行两会及外汇局相关领导分别就金融市场等相关情况做出介绍,涉及货币政策、金融开放、A股估值、市场流动性等多个市场热点问题。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于金融稳定</b></span></p>\n<p>央行副行长陈雨露表示,<b>央行通过准确的公开市场操作和定向降准,来提供短期和中长期的流动性,保持银行体系流动性合理充裕</b>,并及时设立3000亿元的专项再贷款和增加5000亿元的再贷款再贴现额度,有力精准地支持疫情防控和复工复产复。</p>\n<p>此外,会同银保监会等部门对疫情发生之后受影响比较大的中小微企业、民营企业贷款给予展期和续贷的政策,帮助这些企业保持现金流的稳定,渡过难关。</p>\n<p>与此同时,还<b>积极引导市场利率下行,切实降低实体经济的融资成本</b>。</p>\n<p>陈雨露表示,上述组合拳正在产生显著成效,我国金融体系的运行总体平稳,金融市场预期稳定,货币信贷平稳较快增长,国民经济经受住了疫情冲击,也为全球经济金融的稳定作出了重大贡献。</p>\n<p>银保监会副主席周亮也表示,目前银行保险业保持稳健运行,下一步,银保监会将统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展,<b>坚决守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于资本开放</b></span></p>\n<p>证监会副主席李超表示,资本市场改革开放不会受疫情影响。中国资本市场从建立就是改革开放的产物。</p>\n<p>李超强调,资本市场开放包括两方面:</p>\n<p>1、是市场的开放,证监会在做制度规则的推进,下一步会稳妥推进可投资的范围和品种。</p>\n<p>2、是准入的开放,证监会在2019年核准了几家外资控股的券商,<b>将在4月1日允许证券基金公司外资可独资</b>,开放方面方向是坚定不移的。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于货币政策</b></span></p>\n<p>陈雨露表示,下一阶段货币政策主要把握五个方面:</p>\n<p>1、分阶段把握货币政策的力度、节奏和重点,<b>始终保持流动性的合理充裕</b>。特别是要实现M2和社会融资规模增速与名义GDP增速的基本匹配,并且可以略高一些。</p>\n<p>2、充分发挥好结构性货币政策的独特的作用,引导金融机构特别对产业链的核心企业及上下游的民营中小微企业加大信贷支持力度。</p>\n<p>3、继续发挥好政策性金融的作用。</p>\n<p>4、要加大对中小银行补充资本、还有发行金融债券的支持,目的是要进一步提升中小企业的信贷的意愿和信贷的能力。</p>\n<p>5、要<b>继续的推进贷款报价利率LPR的改革引导贷款市场利率的不断下行</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于企业融资</b></span></p>\n<p>国家外汇局副局长宣昌能表示,近日,<b>央行、国家外汇管理局将企业跨境融资风险加权余额宏观审慎调节参数由1上调至1.25%</b>。政策调整后,企业向境外融资空间扩大了25%,企业跨境融资风险加权余额上限由原来净资产的2倍提高到2.5倍,可会对企业增加几百亿美元的融资规模力度。</p>\n<p>宣昌能表示,此项政策有助于有利于中小企业、民营企业更好地利用国际国内多种渠道筹集资金,但<b>政府融资平台和房地产企业不适用该政策</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于A股估值</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,国际金融市场的波动对我国金融市场的影响有必然性,直接影响有两方面:一方面是对境内投资者心理的影响,一方面是对资本流动性的影响。</p>\n<p>当前金融市场流动性合理充裕,<b>A股的估值水平处于历史低位</b>。总的来看,外部环境的影响是阶段性的,不会改变中国资本市场平稳向好的趋势。</p>\n<p>市场杠杆方面,李超表示,<b>当前A股市场的杠杆资金总量与2015年高峰时相比已经下降了80%</b>。</p>\n<p>股票质押方面,李超表示,当前A股主要风险指标趋势性好转,<b>高比例质押上市公司数量较高峰时期已经下降了1/3</b>。</p>\n<p>此外,李超还表示,从A股公司的调研情况看,目前复工率已经超过了98%,高于全国的平均水平。金融市场流动性合理充裕,股市的估值水平处于历史低位。总的看,外部环境的影响是阶段性的,不会改变中国资本市场平稳向好的趋势。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于市场流动性</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,从外资流动情况来看:</p>\n<p>1、债券市场近期外资流出不明显,还有小额流入。</p>\n<p>2、股票市场近一个月流出数额较大且集中。</p>\n<p><b>Wind数据统计显示,今年以来,北向资金累计净流出规模199.69亿元,沪股通净流出规模177.02亿元,深股通净流出规模22.67亿元</b>。</p>\n<p>其中,3月以来,北向资金累计净流出规模699.45亿元,沪股通净流出规模377.49亿元,深股通净流出规模321.96亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ae25615732f6ea2fad73f0cd6c9e71\"></p>\n<p>李超同时强调,近一个月的数据和此前相比,反差较大,但实际上规模并不大。<b>目前外资占A股流通市值仅占4%,有扰动但并没有颠覆性和根本性的冲击</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于险资入场</b></span></p>\n<p>值得注意的是,本次发布会,关于A股增量资金入场又有新进展。</p>\n<p>周亮表示,保险公司已成为资本市场第二大机构投资者,<b>目前保险公司投资权益类资产的余额达18.8万亿元,其中,投资股票和基金规模达2万亿元</b>。</p>\n<p>下一步,银保监会将积极支持保险公司在依法合规的前提下开展长期稳健的价值投资,在审慎监管情况下,赋予保险公司更多自主权,<b>计划对偿付能力强、运营稳健等有条件的保险公司在现有权益类投资比重30%上限外适当提高投资比重</b>,适当增设理财子公司。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于IPO</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,今年前两个月,交易所市场股票、债券合计融资约1.3万亿元。其中:</p>\n<p>1、<b>A股IPO完成发行38家,募资724亿元,再融资901亿元</b>。</p>\n<p>2、交易所债券市场发行1.1万亿元,同比增长了30%。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于注册制</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,创业板改革已经做了一定阶段的研究论证,并在一定范围内征求意见,创业板的改革重点会抓好注册制这条主线,同时会在发行、上市、信披、交易、退市等基础制度等方面做出改革安排,目前相关工作正在有序推进,同时会按照已经公布的12项重点工作,提升上市公司质量、中介机构质量、投资者保护权益、创造有利于中长期资金入市环境等方面,继续加大推进改革力度。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于人民币</b></span></p>\n<p>宣昌能表示,近期,美元上涨是受美元流动性趋紧影响,是技术性上涨而非经济基本面驱动。美元指数持续走强的同时,全球非美货币普遍下行,但人民币兑美元汇率在全球货币表现相对稳健,未来预计人民币兑美元汇率将在7附近继续双向波动,<b>当前我国外汇市场运行平稳,汇率预期稳定,不存在大幅贬值基础</b>。</p>\n<p>截至3月20日,境内人民币即期交易价贬值1.4%,同期美元指数上升5.2%。新兴市场货币指数下跌13.4%,其中自2月下旬国际金融市场剧烈波动,2月21至3月20日,境内人民币即期交易价贬值0.7%,而同期新兴市场货币指数下跌10%,其中3月下旬人民币贬值幅度也明显小于同期的欧元和英镑等货币的贬值幅度。这些数据充分显示人民币汇率在全球外汇市场,尤其是在新兴市场中的表现相对稳健。</p>\n<p><span><b>A股估值:十年均值下方</b></span></p>\n<p>截至上周五收盘(3月20日),万得全A市盈率(PE-ttm,)报16.24倍,市净率(PB-lf)报1.58倍,分别是十年均值的95.8%、81.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c4937ad6c5dbe46d82ad456f2d2251\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e99073de488c1601afc51657ec9b71d\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf247aa537e9aff4e0e0b98131284c52\"></p>\n<p>上周,全球金融市场继续动荡,美股在一周之内再次熔断两次,道琼斯指数一度跌至18917点,亚太股市继续跟随大幅下跌。受外围市场恐慌因素传染,A股出现阶段性回调,其中周一回调幅度较大,至上周五,A股已经强势上涨。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164cdaa6e3cae4fb22bac07c7a94ab9a\"></p>\n<p>银保监会首席风险官肖远企3月17日表示,近期境外疫情的扩散,引发了全球主要金融市场出现比较大的波动。近期我国金融市场的波动主要受境外金融市场影响,长期来看,我国金融市场比较健全,有稳中向好的基础。</p>\n<p>1、<b>我国有疫情防控的先发优势</b>。</p>\n<p>2、<b>长期向好的基本面没有改变</b>。</p>\n<p>3、<b>我国金融市场有估值优势,股票市场市盈率整体比较低</b>。</p>\n<p>4、<b>政策空间比较大,工具箱比较丰富</b>。财政政策力度比较大,货币政策与海外相比空间也比较大。因此,对我国金融市场充满信心。</p>\n<p>截至3月20日收盘,A股估值优势仍然较为明显,即便是最贵的创业板,估值也仅是十年均值的137%,而上证50市盈率仅有十年均值的87.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba44f063fe4ef70f8c483dd1e70e492b\"></p>\n<p>受市场回调影响,上周,仅食品行业上涨,其他Wind二级行业均出现下跌,其中家庭与个人用品、制药、公用事业跌幅较小。房地产、保险、汽车与零部件行业出现较大跌幅。出现这种现象的原因是,外资不断减持,以中国平安为代表的外资重仓股出现大幅下跌。</p>\n<p>行业估值方面:<b>以市净率角度,软件、半导体、制药是市场最贵的三个行业</b>,结合行业涨跌幅榜来看,其上周跌幅并不大,这是因为,市场对5G、半导体为代表的科技行业仍然较为追捧,特别是5G为代表的新基建推动下,行业增长有保障,这在当下越来越严峻的全球宏观经济形势下,显得格外难得。估值最低的行业,近一段时间,没有太多变化,依然是周期性行业为主。其中,房地产、保险受疫情影响和外资抛售影响,估值中枢下降较快。</p>\n<p><b>市净率方面,估值最低的是零售、商业和专业服务、媒体、能源</b>,在国家油价下跌的大背景下,能源等为代表的周期性行业其相对估值可能还有进一步下降空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1feabd1862c6529657a8c8f842976122\"></p>\n<p><span><b>六大机构展望:A股已处低位</b></span></p>\n<p>中信策略研报分析,<span>预计海外疫情、全球流动性、美股波动、国内政策这四大市场见底信号在未来几周会逐渐明确,</span><b>A股正处于全年最佳的配置窗口</b><span>。其中:</span></p>\n<p><span>1、海外疫情方面,压制策略已逐渐成为各国共识,主要疫区政府已开始采取有力的防护措施,海外疫情失控概率很小,预计欧美4月中旬将迎来日增确诊的峰值。</span></p>\n<p><span>2、全球流动性方面,美欧央行已采取坚决有效的措施,建立防火墙,防止市场流动性风险演变为金融机构融资流动性风险,“美元荒”导致的美元指数快速上行已近尾声,未来美元指数回落到100以下将是全球市场短期见底的重要信号。</span></p>\n<p><span>3、美股调整第一阶段的恐慌性抛售已近尾声,短期市场止跌修复后,预计还会进入基本面下修主驱动的慢跌阶段,跌幅料将小于第一阶段,重点观测信号是VIX回落到20左右,以及美股日成交回落至本轮下跌之前。</span></p>\n<p><span>4、国内政策方面,后续中央政治局会议将重新凝聚政策共识,预计政策力度不会低于预期;同时,政策积极准备和应对下,预计国内金融市场不会出现类似于海外的系统性风险。</span></p>\n<p><span>报告判断,上述四大信号逐渐明确后,</span><b>预计A股在今年的第二轮上涨将在二季度启动。同时,从外资、产业资本,到保险、公募,再到私募和个人投资者的新一轮资金轮动也会重启</b><span>。</span></p>\n<p>银河证券付延平、曾万平研报分析,当前美国爆发金融危机可能性仍低,若海外疫情能够逐渐控制,金融市场风险可控。<b>A股已处于底部区域,预计A股相对美股的强势行情仍将延续</b>。外围股市面临下跌调整压力,短期可能继续对A股市场造成影响,但是当前A股处于低位,估值性价比高,中国疫情有效控制有序复工且政策空间充足,未来市场下跌调整空间有限,对中国股市保持信心,建议积极布局。</p>\n<p>安信证券陈果研报分析,从A股自身估值和投资价值来看,我们认为<b>估值包含预期已经较为悲观,当前A股具备显著的配置价值</b>。考虑到无风险收益率影响,A股近期估值吸引力已经接近2019年初市场底部水平。</p>\n<p>报告认为,全球金融市场最恐慌阶段已经过去,在当前海外流动性危机担忧缓解背景下,我们预计风险资产将出现反弹,而中期将会根据各自基本面出现分化行情,在当前位置时点,我们对A股持乐观态度,应积极把握机会。</p>\n<p>国泰君安李少君团队研报分析,A股估值总体合理,作为压力测试,从全市场、行业和重点公司三个角度模拟,极端情形下修空间约15%。</p>\n<p>报告同时强调,<b>从疫情风险、景气周期、行业格局角度看,到达极限空间概率较低</b>。</p>\n<p>招商证券张夏研报分析,目前市场转机与风险并存,<b>A股将在未来一段时间消化利空、反映改善,“纯内需”是下一阶段布局的主要方向。</b></p>\n<p>不过,新时代樊继拓策略研报提醒,从股市估值来看,股市已经进入底部区域,股市相比债券性价比已经达到2018年Q4水平。但如果看1-2个季度,还需要明确是V形底还是震荡底。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-23 10:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>一行两会周末重磅发声。</p>\n<p>3月22日,国务院新闻办公室召开发布会,一行两会及外汇局相关领导分别就金融市场等相关情况做出介绍,涉及货币政策、金融开放、A股估值、市场流动性等多个市场热点问题。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于金融稳定</b></span></p>\n<p>央行副行长陈雨露表示,<b>央行通过准确的公开市场操作和定向降准,来提供短期和中长期的流动性,保持银行体系流动性合理充裕</b>,并及时设立3000亿元的专项再贷款和增加5000亿元的再贷款再贴现额度,有力精准地支持疫情防控和复工复产复。</p>\n<p>此外,会同银保监会等部门对疫情发生之后受影响比较大的中小微企业、民营企业贷款给予展期和续贷的政策,帮助这些企业保持现金流的稳定,渡过难关。</p>\n<p>与此同时,还<b>积极引导市场利率下行,切实降低实体经济的融资成本</b>。</p>\n<p>陈雨露表示,上述组合拳正在产生显著成效,我国金融体系的运行总体平稳,金融市场预期稳定,货币信贷平稳较快增长,国民经济经受住了疫情冲击,也为全球经济金融的稳定作出了重大贡献。</p>\n<p>银保监会副主席周亮也表示,目前银行保险业保持稳健运行,下一步,银保监会将统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展,<b>坚决守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于资本开放</b></span></p>\n<p>证监会副主席李超表示,资本市场改革开放不会受疫情影响。中国资本市场从建立就是改革开放的产物。</p>\n<p>李超强调,资本市场开放包括两方面:</p>\n<p>1、是市场的开放,证监会在做制度规则的推进,下一步会稳妥推进可投资的范围和品种。</p>\n<p>2、是准入的开放,证监会在2019年核准了几家外资控股的券商,<b>将在4月1日允许证券基金公司外资可独资</b>,开放方面方向是坚定不移的。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于货币政策</b></span></p>\n<p>陈雨露表示,下一阶段货币政策主要把握五个方面:</p>\n<p>1、分阶段把握货币政策的力度、节奏和重点,<b>始终保持流动性的合理充裕</b>。特别是要实现M2和社会融资规模增速与名义GDP增速的基本匹配,并且可以略高一些。</p>\n<p>2、充分发挥好结构性货币政策的独特的作用,引导金融机构特别对产业链的核心企业及上下游的民营中小微企业加大信贷支持力度。</p>\n<p>3、继续发挥好政策性金融的作用。</p>\n<p>4、要加大对中小银行补充资本、还有发行金融债券的支持,目的是要进一步提升中小企业的信贷的意愿和信贷的能力。</p>\n<p>5、要<b>继续的推进贷款报价利率LPR的改革引导贷款市场利率的不断下行</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于企业融资</b></span></p>\n<p>国家外汇局副局长宣昌能表示,近日,<b>央行、国家外汇管理局将企业跨境融资风险加权余额宏观审慎调节参数由1上调至1.25%</b>。政策调整后,企业向境外融资空间扩大了25%,企业跨境融资风险加权余额上限由原来净资产的2倍提高到2.5倍,可会对企业增加几百亿美元的融资规模力度。</p>\n<p>宣昌能表示,此项政策有助于有利于中小企业、民营企业更好地利用国际国内多种渠道筹集资金,但<b>政府融资平台和房地产企业不适用该政策</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于A股估值</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,国际金融市场的波动对我国金融市场的影响有必然性,直接影响有两方面:一方面是对境内投资者心理的影响,一方面是对资本流动性的影响。</p>\n<p>当前金融市场流动性合理充裕,<b>A股的估值水平处于历史低位</b>。总的来看,外部环境的影响是阶段性的,不会改变中国资本市场平稳向好的趋势。</p>\n<p>市场杠杆方面,李超表示,<b>当前A股市场的杠杆资金总量与2015年高峰时相比已经下降了80%</b>。</p>\n<p>股票质押方面,李超表示,当前A股主要风险指标趋势性好转,<b>高比例质押上市公司数量较高峰时期已经下降了1/3</b>。</p>\n<p>此外,李超还表示,从A股公司的调研情况看,目前复工率已经超过了98%,高于全国的平均水平。金融市场流动性合理充裕,股市的估值水平处于历史低位。总的看,外部环境的影响是阶段性的,不会改变中国资本市场平稳向好的趋势。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于市场流动性</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,从外资流动情况来看:</p>\n<p>1、债券市场近期外资流出不明显,还有小额流入。</p>\n<p>2、股票市场近一个月流出数额较大且集中。</p>\n<p><b>Wind数据统计显示,今年以来,北向资金累计净流出规模199.69亿元,沪股通净流出规模177.02亿元,深股通净流出规模22.67亿元</b>。</p>\n<p>其中,3月以来,北向资金累计净流出规模699.45亿元,沪股通净流出规模377.49亿元,深股通净流出规模321.96亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ae25615732f6ea2fad73f0cd6c9e71\"></p>\n<p>李超同时强调,近一个月的数据和此前相比,反差较大,但实际上规模并不大。<b>目前外资占A股流通市值仅占4%,有扰动但并没有颠覆性和根本性的冲击</b>。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于险资入场</b></span></p>\n<p>值得注意的是,本次发布会,关于A股增量资金入场又有新进展。</p>\n<p>周亮表示,保险公司已成为资本市场第二大机构投资者,<b>目前保险公司投资权益类资产的余额达18.8万亿元,其中,投资股票和基金规模达2万亿元</b>。</p>\n<p>下一步,银保监会将积极支持保险公司在依法合规的前提下开展长期稳健的价值投资,在审慎监管情况下,赋予保险公司更多自主权,<b>计划对偿付能力强、运营稳健等有条件的保险公司在现有权益类投资比重30%上限外适当提高投资比重</b>,适当增设理财子公司。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于IPO</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,今年前两个月,交易所市场股票、债券合计融资约1.3万亿元。其中:</p>\n<p>1、<b>A股IPO完成发行38家,募资724亿元,再融资901亿元</b>。</p>\n<p>2、交易所债券市场发行1.1万亿元,同比增长了30%。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于注册制</b></span></p>\n<p>李超表示,创业板改革已经做了一定阶段的研究论证,并在一定范围内征求意见,创业板的改革重点会抓好注册制这条主线,同时会在发行、上市、信披、交易、退市等基础制度等方面做出改革安排,目前相关工作正在有序推进,同时会按照已经公布的12项重点工作,提升上市公司质量、中介机构质量、投资者保护权益、创造有利于中长期资金入市环境等方面,继续加大推进改革力度。</p>\n<p><span><b>关于人民币</b></span></p>\n<p>宣昌能表示,近期,美元上涨是受美元流动性趋紧影响,是技术性上涨而非经济基本面驱动。美元指数持续走强的同时,全球非美货币普遍下行,但人民币兑美元汇率在全球货币表现相对稳健,未来预计人民币兑美元汇率将在7附近继续双向波动,<b>当前我国外汇市场运行平稳,汇率预期稳定,不存在大幅贬值基础</b>。</p>\n<p>截至3月20日,境内人民币即期交易价贬值1.4%,同期美元指数上升5.2%。新兴市场货币指数下跌13.4%,其中自2月下旬国际金融市场剧烈波动,2月21至3月20日,境内人民币即期交易价贬值0.7%,而同期新兴市场货币指数下跌10%,其中3月下旬人民币贬值幅度也明显小于同期的欧元和英镑等货币的贬值幅度。这些数据充分显示人民币汇率在全球外汇市场,尤其是在新兴市场中的表现相对稳健。</p>\n<p><span><b>A股估值:十年均值下方</b></span></p>\n<p>截至上周五收盘(3月20日),万得全A市盈率(PE-ttm,)报16.24倍,市净率(PB-lf)报1.58倍,分别是十年均值的95.8%、81.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c4937ad6c5dbe46d82ad456f2d2251\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e99073de488c1601afc51657ec9b71d\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf247aa537e9aff4e0e0b98131284c52\"></p>\n<p>上周,全球金融市场继续动荡,美股在一周之内再次熔断两次,道琼斯指数一度跌至18917点,亚太股市继续跟随大幅下跌。受外围市场恐慌因素传染,A股出现阶段性回调,其中周一回调幅度较大,至上周五,A股已经强势上涨。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/164cdaa6e3cae4fb22bac07c7a94ab9a\"></p>\n<p>银保监会首席风险官肖远企3月17日表示,近期境外疫情的扩散,引发了全球主要金融市场出现比较大的波动。近期我国金融市场的波动主要受境外金融市场影响,长期来看,我国金融市场比较健全,有稳中向好的基础。</p>\n<p>1、<b>我国有疫情防控的先发优势</b>。</p>\n<p>2、<b>长期向好的基本面没有改变</b>。</p>\n<p>3、<b>我国金融市场有估值优势,股票市场市盈率整体比较低</b>。</p>\n<p>4、<b>政策空间比较大,工具箱比较丰富</b>。财政政策力度比较大,货币政策与海外相比空间也比较大。因此,对我国金融市场充满信心。</p>\n<p>截至3月20日收盘,A股估值优势仍然较为明显,即便是最贵的创业板,估值也仅是十年均值的137%,而上证50市盈率仅有十年均值的87.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba44f063fe4ef70f8c483dd1e70e492b\"></p>\n<p>受市场回调影响,上周,仅食品行业上涨,其他Wind二级行业均出现下跌,其中家庭与个人用品、制药、公用事业跌幅较小。房地产、保险、汽车与零部件行业出现较大跌幅。出现这种现象的原因是,外资不断减持,以中国平安为代表的外资重仓股出现大幅下跌。</p>\n<p>行业估值方面:<b>以市净率角度,软件、半导体、制药是市场最贵的三个行业</b>,结合行业涨跌幅榜来看,其上周跌幅并不大,这是因为,市场对5G、半导体为代表的科技行业仍然较为追捧,特别是5G为代表的新基建推动下,行业增长有保障,这在当下越来越严峻的全球宏观经济形势下,显得格外难得。估值最低的行业,近一段时间,没有太多变化,依然是周期性行业为主。其中,房地产、保险受疫情影响和外资抛售影响,估值中枢下降较快。</p>\n<p><b>市净率方面,估值最低的是零售、商业和专业服务、媒体、能源</b>,在国家油价下跌的大背景下,能源等为代表的周期性行业其相对估值可能还有进一步下降空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1feabd1862c6529657a8c8f842976122\"></p>\n<p><span><b>六大机构展望:A股已处低位</b></span></p>\n<p>中信策略研报分析,<span>预计海外疫情、全球流动性、美股波动、国内政策这四大市场见底信号在未来几周会逐渐明确,</span><b>A股正处于全年最佳的配置窗口</b><span>。其中:</span></p>\n<p><span>1、海外疫情方面,压制策略已逐渐成为各国共识,主要疫区政府已开始采取有力的防护措施,海外疫情失控概率很小,预计欧美4月中旬将迎来日增确诊的峰值。</span></p>\n<p><span>2、全球流动性方面,美欧央行已采取坚决有效的措施,建立防火墙,防止市场流动性风险演变为金融机构融资流动性风险,“美元荒”导致的美元指数快速上行已近尾声,未来美元指数回落到100以下将是全球市场短期见底的重要信号。</span></p>\n<p><span>3、美股调整第一阶段的恐慌性抛售已近尾声,短期市场止跌修复后,预计还会进入基本面下修主驱动的慢跌阶段,跌幅料将小于第一阶段,重点观测信号是VIX回落到20左右,以及美股日成交回落至本轮下跌之前。</span></p>\n<p><span>4、国内政策方面,后续中央政治局会议将重新凝聚政策共识,预计政策力度不会低于预期;同时,政策积极准备和应对下,预计国内金融市场不会出现类似于海外的系统性风险。</span></p>\n<p><span>报告判断,上述四大信号逐渐明确后,</span><b>预计A股在今年的第二轮上涨将在二季度启动。同时,从外资、产业资本,到保险、公募,再到私募和个人投资者的新一轮资金轮动也会重启</b><span>。</span></p>\n<p>银河证券付延平、曾万平研报分析,当前美国爆发金融危机可能性仍低,若海外疫情能够逐渐控制,金融市场风险可控。<b>A股已处于底部区域,预计A股相对美股的强势行情仍将延续</b>。外围股市面临下跌调整压力,短期可能继续对A股市场造成影响,但是当前A股处于低位,估值性价比高,中国疫情有效控制有序复工且政策空间充足,未来市场下跌调整空间有限,对中国股市保持信心,建议积极布局。</p>\n<p>安信证券陈果研报分析,从A股自身估值和投资价值来看,我们认为<b>估值包含预期已经较为悲观,当前A股具备显著的配置价值</b>。考虑到无风险收益率影响,A股近期估值吸引力已经接近2019年初市场底部水平。</p>\n<p>报告认为,全球金融市场最恐慌阶段已经过去,在当前海外流动性危机担忧缓解背景下,我们预计风险资产将出现反弹,而中期将会根据各自基本面出现分化行情,在当前位置时点,我们对A股持乐观态度,应积极把握机会。</p>\n<p>国泰君安李少君团队研报分析,A股估值总体合理,作为压力测试,从全市场、行业和重点公司三个角度模拟,极端情形下修空间约15%。</p>\n<p>报告同时强调,<b>从疫情风险、景气周期、行业格局角度看,到达极限空间概率较低</b>。</p>\n<p>招商证券张夏研报分析,目前市场转机与风险并存,<b>A股将在未来一段时间消化利空、反映改善,“纯内需”是下一阶段布局的主要方向。</b></p>\n<p>不过,新时代樊继拓策略研报提醒,从股市估值来看,股市已经进入底部区域,股市相比债券性价比已经达到2018年Q4水平。但如果看1-2个季度,还需要明确是V形底还是震荡底。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afbc4211dee47016ee2c0742ac1adb1f","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176403510","content_text":"一行两会周末重磅发声。\n3月22日,国务院新闻办公室召开发布会,一行两会及外汇局相关领导分别就金融市场等相关情况做出介绍,涉及货币政策、金融开放、A股估值、市场流动性等多个市场热点问题。\n关于金融稳定\n央行副行长陈雨露表示,央行通过准确的公开市场操作和定向降准,来提供短期和中长期的流动性,保持银行体系流动性合理充裕,并及时设立3000亿元的专项再贷款和增加5000亿元的再贷款再贴现额度,有力精准地支持疫情防控和复工复产复。\n此外,会同银保监会等部门对疫情发生之后受影响比较大的中小微企业、民营企业贷款给予展期和续贷的政策,帮助这些企业保持现金流的稳定,渡过难关。\n与此同时,还积极引导市场利率下行,切实降低实体经济的融资成本。\n陈雨露表示,上述组合拳正在产生显著成效,我国金融体系的运行总体平稳,金融市场预期稳定,货币信贷平稳较快增长,国民经济经受住了疫情冲击,也为全球经济金融的稳定作出了重大贡献。\n银保监会副主席周亮也表示,目前银行保险业保持稳健运行,下一步,银保监会将统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展,坚决守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。\n关于资本开放\n证监会副主席李超表示,资本市场改革开放不会受疫情影响。中国资本市场从建立就是改革开放的产物。\n李超强调,资本市场开放包括两方面:\n1、是市场的开放,证监会在做制度规则的推进,下一步会稳妥推进可投资的范围和品种。\n2、是准入的开放,证监会在2019年核准了几家外资控股的券商,将在4月1日允许证券基金公司外资可独资,开放方面方向是坚定不移的。\n关于货币政策\n陈雨露表示,下一阶段货币政策主要把握五个方面:\n1、分阶段把握货币政策的力度、节奏和重点,始终保持流动性的合理充裕。特别是要实现M2和社会融资规模增速与名义GDP增速的基本匹配,并且可以略高一些。\n2、充分发挥好结构性货币政策的独特的作用,引导金融机构特别对产业链的核心企业及上下游的民营中小微企业加大信贷支持力度。\n3、继续发挥好政策性金融的作用。\n4、要加大对中小银行补充资本、还有发行金融债券的支持,目的是要进一步提升中小企业的信贷的意愿和信贷的能力。\n5、要继续的推进贷款报价利率LPR的改革引导贷款市场利率的不断下行。\n关于企业融资\n国家外汇局副局长宣昌能表示,近日,央行、国家外汇管理局将企业跨境融资风险加权余额宏观审慎调节参数由1上调至1.25%。政策调整后,企业向境外融资空间扩大了25%,企业跨境融资风险加权余额上限由原来净资产的2倍提高到2.5倍,可会对企业增加几百亿美元的融资规模力度。\n宣昌能表示,此项政策有助于有利于中小企业、民营企业更好地利用国际国内多种渠道筹集资金,但政府融资平台和房地产企业不适用该政策。\n关于A股估值\n李超表示,国际金融市场的波动对我国金融市场的影响有必然性,直接影响有两方面:一方面是对境内投资者心理的影响,一方面是对资本流动性的影响。\n当前金融市场流动性合理充裕,A股的估值水平处于历史低位。总的来看,外部环境的影响是阶段性的,不会改变中国资本市场平稳向好的趋势。\n市场杠杆方面,李超表示,当前A股市场的杠杆资金总量与2015年高峰时相比已经下降了80%。\n股票质押方面,李超表示,当前A股主要风险指标趋势性好转,高比例质押上市公司数量较高峰时期已经下降了1/3。\n此外,李超还表示,从A股公司的调研情况看,目前复工率已经超过了98%,高于全国的平均水平。金融市场流动性合理充裕,股市的估值水平处于历史低位。总的看,外部环境的影响是阶段性的,不会改变中国资本市场平稳向好的趋势。\n关于市场流动性\n李超表示,从外资流动情况来看:\n1、债券市场近期外资流出不明显,还有小额流入。\n2、股票市场近一个月流出数额较大且集中。\nWind数据统计显示,今年以来,北向资金累计净流出规模199.69亿元,沪股通净流出规模177.02亿元,深股通净流出规模22.67亿元。\n其中,3月以来,北向资金累计净流出规模699.45亿元,沪股通净流出规模377.49亿元,深股通净流出规模321.96亿元。\n\n李超同时强调,近一个月的数据和此前相比,反差较大,但实际上规模并不大。目前外资占A股流通市值仅占4%,有扰动但并没有颠覆性和根本性的冲击。\n关于险资入场\n值得注意的是,本次发布会,关于A股增量资金入场又有新进展。\n周亮表示,保险公司已成为资本市场第二大机构投资者,目前保险公司投资权益类资产的余额达18.8万亿元,其中,投资股票和基金规模达2万亿元。\n下一步,银保监会将积极支持保险公司在依法合规的前提下开展长期稳健的价值投资,在审慎监管情况下,赋予保险公司更多自主权,计划对偿付能力强、运营稳健等有条件的保险公司在现有权益类投资比重30%上限外适当提高投资比重,适当增设理财子公司。\n关于IPO\n李超表示,今年前两个月,交易所市场股票、债券合计融资约1.3万亿元。其中:\n1、A股IPO完成发行38家,募资724亿元,再融资901亿元。\n2、交易所债券市场发行1.1万亿元,同比增长了30%。\n关于注册制\n李超表示,创业板改革已经做了一定阶段的研究论证,并在一定范围内征求意见,创业板的改革重点会抓好注册制这条主线,同时会在发行、上市、信披、交易、退市等基础制度等方面做出改革安排,目前相关工作正在有序推进,同时会按照已经公布的12项重点工作,提升上市公司质量、中介机构质量、投资者保护权益、创造有利于中长期资金入市环境等方面,继续加大推进改革力度。\n关于人民币\n宣昌能表示,近期,美元上涨是受美元流动性趋紧影响,是技术性上涨而非经济基本面驱动。美元指数持续走强的同时,全球非美货币普遍下行,但人民币兑美元汇率在全球货币表现相对稳健,未来预计人民币兑美元汇率将在7附近继续双向波动,当前我国外汇市场运行平稳,汇率预期稳定,不存在大幅贬值基础。\n截至3月20日,境内人民币即期交易价贬值1.4%,同期美元指数上升5.2%。新兴市场货币指数下跌13.4%,其中自2月下旬国际金融市场剧烈波动,2月21至3月20日,境内人民币即期交易价贬值0.7%,而同期新兴市场货币指数下跌10%,其中3月下旬人民币贬值幅度也明显小于同期的欧元和英镑等货币的贬值幅度。这些数据充分显示人民币汇率在全球外汇市场,尤其是在新兴市场中的表现相对稳健。\nA股估值:十年均值下方\n截至上周五收盘(3月20日),万得全A市盈率(PE-ttm,)报16.24倍,市净率(PB-lf)报1.58倍,分别是十年均值的95.8%、81.5%。\n\n上周,全球金融市场继续动荡,美股在一周之内再次熔断两次,道琼斯指数一度跌至18917点,亚太股市继续跟随大幅下跌。受外围市场恐慌因素传染,A股出现阶段性回调,其中周一回调幅度较大,至上周五,A股已经强势上涨。\n\n银保监会首席风险官肖远企3月17日表示,近期境外疫情的扩散,引发了全球主要金融市场出现比较大的波动。近期我国金融市场的波动主要受境外金融市场影响,长期来看,我国金融市场比较健全,有稳中向好的基础。\n1、我国有疫情防控的先发优势。\n2、长期向好的基本面没有改变。\n3、我国金融市场有估值优势,股票市场市盈率整体比较低。\n4、政策空间比较大,工具箱比较丰富。财政政策力度比较大,货币政策与海外相比空间也比较大。因此,对我国金融市场充满信心。\n截至3月20日收盘,A股估值优势仍然较为明显,即便是最贵的创业板,估值也仅是十年均值的137%,而上证50市盈率仅有十年均值的87.7%。\n\n受市场回调影响,上周,仅食品行业上涨,其他Wind二级行业均出现下跌,其中家庭与个人用品、制药、公用事业跌幅较小。房地产、保险、汽车与零部件行业出现较大跌幅。出现这种现象的原因是,外资不断减持,以中国平安为代表的外资重仓股出现大幅下跌。\n行业估值方面:以市净率角度,软件、半导体、制药是市场最贵的三个行业,结合行业涨跌幅榜来看,其上周跌幅并不大,这是因为,市场对5G、半导体为代表的科技行业仍然较为追捧,特别是5G为代表的新基建推动下,行业增长有保障,这在当下越来越严峻的全球宏观经济形势下,显得格外难得。估值最低的行业,近一段时间,没有太多变化,依然是周期性行业为主。其中,房地产、保险受疫情影响和外资抛售影响,估值中枢下降较快。\n市净率方面,估值最低的是零售、商业和专业服务、媒体、能源,在国家油价下跌的大背景下,能源等为代表的周期性行业其相对估值可能还有进一步下降空间。\n\n六大机构展望:A股已处低位\n中信策略研报分析,预计海外疫情、全球流动性、美股波动、国内政策这四大市场见底信号在未来几周会逐渐明确,A股正处于全年最佳的配置窗口。其中:\n1、海外疫情方面,压制策略已逐渐成为各国共识,主要疫区政府已开始采取有力的防护措施,海外疫情失控概率很小,预计欧美4月中旬将迎来日增确诊的峰值。\n2、全球流动性方面,美欧央行已采取坚决有效的措施,建立防火墙,防止市场流动性风险演变为金融机构融资流动性风险,“美元荒”导致的美元指数快速上行已近尾声,未来美元指数回落到100以下将是全球市场短期见底的重要信号。\n3、美股调整第一阶段的恐慌性抛售已近尾声,短期市场止跌修复后,预计还会进入基本面下修主驱动的慢跌阶段,跌幅料将小于第一阶段,重点观测信号是VIX回落到20左右,以及美股日成交回落至本轮下跌之前。\n4、国内政策方面,后续中央政治局会议将重新凝聚政策共识,预计政策力度不会低于预期;同时,政策积极准备和应对下,预计国内金融市场不会出现类似于海外的系统性风险。\n报告判断,上述四大信号逐渐明确后,预计A股在今年的第二轮上涨将在二季度启动。同时,从外资、产业资本,到保险、公募,再到私募和个人投资者的新一轮资金轮动也会重启。\n银河证券付延平、曾万平研报分析,当前美国爆发金融危机可能性仍低,若海外疫情能够逐渐控制,金融市场风险可控。A股已处于底部区域,预计A股相对美股的强势行情仍将延续。外围股市面临下跌调整压力,短期可能继续对A股市场造成影响,但是当前A股处于低位,估值性价比高,中国疫情有效控制有序复工且政策空间充足,未来市场下跌调整空间有限,对中国股市保持信心,建议积极布局。\n安信证券陈果研报分析,从A股自身估值和投资价值来看,我们认为估值包含预期已经较为悲观,当前A股具备显著的配置价值。考虑到无风险收益率影响,A股近期估值吸引力已经接近2019年初市场底部水平。\n报告认为,全球金融市场最恐慌阶段已经过去,在当前海外流动性危机担忧缓解背景下,我们预计风险资产将出现反弹,而中期将会根据各自基本面出现分化行情,在当前位置时点,我们对A股持乐观态度,应积极把握机会。\n国泰君安李少君团队研报分析,A股估值总体合理,作为压力测试,从全市场、行业和重点公司三个角度模拟,极端情形下修空间约15%。\n报告同时强调,从疫情风险、景气周期、行业格局角度看,到达极限空间概率较低。\n招商证券张夏研报分析,目前市场转机与风险并存,A股将在未来一段时间消化利空、反映改善,“纯内需”是下一阶段布局的主要方向。\n不过,新时代樊继拓策略研报提醒,从股市估值来看,股市已经进入底部区域,股市相比债券性价比已经达到2018年Q4水平。但如果看1-2个季度,还需要明确是V形底还是震荡底。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967441343,"gmtCreate":1584687827182,"gmtModify":1704355621218,"author":{"id":"3509840649108739","authorId":"3509840649108739","name":"涨跌两开花","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509840649108739","authorIdStr":"3509840649108739"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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