等等等等等的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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IP属地：广东

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等等等等等

2019-07-10

$蔚来(NIO)$销量差，我还看多

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2019-01-10

$蔚来(NIO)$ 不因利好而上涨，只是一味地通过大盘的跌势收割，庄稼眼里只有韭菜。这庄其实很没技术含量，非常有规律，利用股民对蔚来的看好无情收割，蔚来管理层很优秀，要卖就卖庄或者怪自己容易上钩，或者你就长线投资，别搭理他。我在汽车行业干了十多年研发，对蔚来汽车的长期发展潜力非常看好

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2019-07-03

$蔚来(NIO)$ 理想汽车刚融资5亿美元，估值29美金，蔚来和理想比比看值多少，大伙自行感受

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2021-01-20

$一起教育科技(YQ)$这么好的行情竟然如此安静，都走了吗

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2018-12-19

$蔚来(NIO)$ 空头们，想低价收割，门都没有，等着爆仓吧！

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2021-01-06

$一起教育科技(YQ)$真是的，能不能搞高级点，天天100股的砸，吓唬谁呢

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2020-01-11

特斯拉请的水军媒体真不少。竟然说国内最差的一环是整车制造。进口版的特斯拉做工差点不是一点点。

抱歉，原内容已删除

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2019-01-14

$蔚来(NIO)$ 考验空头的时间来了

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2020-12-17

$一起教育科技(YQ)$有道和一起学谁获课成本高，谁客户多？谁研发投入多？谁营销占比多？谁市值高？[笑哭]

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2018-12-19

$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 搞笑吧，低价成交一股

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2018-12-11

$蔚来(NIO)$ 不能做空是啥情况？

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2021-02-25

这说的也太不不像话了，本来是好事，无语了

抱歉，原内容已删除

等等等等等

2020-06-11

以前的媒体不是吹牛逼，说特斯拉的松下电池比宁德时代便宜吗？罢了罢了

抱歉，原内容已删除

等等等等等

2020-01-01

这也是产品派？

抱歉，原内容已删除

等等等等等

2019-09-24

我就不信蔚来只是理想的8折不到

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2019-08-16

理想估值都29亿美元，大伙继续加油砸，我来接盘当韭菜吧。

等等等等等

2019-07-11

我就没听哪些所谓的股神忠告，要不然真成韭菜被洗了，从5补仓到2.5[龇牙]

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2019-06-11

$蔚来(NIO)$ 拖真多

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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成本有望再降</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; 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{font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国产Model 3首次采用磷酸铁锂电池 成本有望再降\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-11 16:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/20200611/c620970103.shtml><strong>新京报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新京报贝壳财经讯(记者陆一夫)6月11日，工信部发布新能源汽车推广应用推荐车型目录(2020年第7批)，其中特斯拉(上海)有限公司的Model3标准续航版在列。　　最值得关注的是，此次Model3标准续航版的储能装置种类为磷酸铁锂电池，而非目前在售的三元锂电池，这或许意味着Model3标准续航版有望进一步降低成本。　　与目前在售的Model3标准续航版相比，此次搭载磷酸铁锂电池的版本续航里程上增加...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/20200611/c620970103.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaf10f59d529fccc557480730989e342","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/20200611/c620970103.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2042859293","content_text":"新京报贝壳财经讯(记者陆一夫)6月11日，工信部发布新能源汽车推广应用推荐车型目录(2020年第7批)，其中特斯拉(上海)有限公司的Model3标准续航版在列。　　最值得关注的是，此次Model3标准续航版的储能装置种类为磷酸铁锂电池，而非目前在售的三元锂电池，这或许意味着Model3标准续航版有望进一步降低成本。　　与目前在售的Model3标准续航版相比，此次搭载磷酸铁锂电池的版本续航里程上增加了23公里，总质量增加153Kg，电池能量密度下降20Wh/kg，工况条件下百公里耗电量略有增加，其余参数不变。　　受此消息影响，磷酸铁锂概念股异动，湘潭电化（002125）一度拉升封板，收盘时涨幅回落至3.88%；德方纳米（300769）、丰元股份（002805）等一度涨超4%。而为特斯拉供货的宁德时代（300750）大涨4.66.%。　　安信证券在近日的一份研报中指出，预计换用磷酸铁锂电池后，国产Model3电池成本有望下降1.17万元，可为整车成本带来6%的降幅。目前Model3标准续航版补贴后售价为27.155万元，以此计算搭载磷酸铁锂电池的版本售价有望进一步下降至26万元。　　安信证券认为，如果继续考虑其他零部件的国产化替代的话，那么在中性假设下，国产零部件价格较进口低17%左右，预计当国产化率为70%时，其他零部件成本会下降0.7万元，可带来3.77%以上的整车成本降幅。综合考虑以上两部分的国产化后，预计特斯拉的整车成本可较当前下降1.88万元到16.99万元，降幅可达9.97%。　　新京报贝壳财经记者陆一夫 \n同花顺上线「疫情地图」\n                    点击查看：新型肺炎疫情实时动态地图>>>\n                \n\n关注同花顺财经（ths518），获取更多机会","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":918162190,"gmtCreate":1578748022910,"gmtModify":1704338208691,"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504264251982830","authorIdStr":"3504264251982830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉请的水军媒体真不少。竟然说国内最差的一环是整车制造。进口版的特斯拉做工差点不是一点点。","listText":"特斯拉请的水军媒体真不少。竟然说国内最差的一环是整车制造。进口版的特斯拉做工差点不是一点点。","text":"特斯拉请的水军媒体真不少。竟然说国内最差的一环是整车制造。进口版的特斯拉做工差点不是一点点。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/918162190","repostId":"2002636261","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2002636261","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"科技商业观察家。微创新提出者。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"金错刀","id":"1023100042","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd95e24719f249c0bbc96822817a73e4"},"pubTimestamp":1578715740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2002636261?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-01-11 12:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"两年前濒临破产，如今市值5956亿！中国为什么要助它起死回生？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2002636261","media":"金错刀","summary":"文/金错刀频道  祥燎能让马斯克情不自已，一年内两次尬舞的，只能是来自中国的春风。1月7日，特斯拉在位于上海的超级工厂向普通车主首次交付国产Model 3，马斯克在现场开心得脱衣跳舞暖场。就在一年前，","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img arial=\"\" auto=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d54d4e373c4f4a3e3176d335d7c3e83\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>文/金错刀频道  祥燎</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/607397c73abc9c8acd40c915ed76bcb6\"/></p><p><span>能让马斯克情不自已，一年内两次尬舞的，只能是来自中国的春风。</span></p><p><span>1月7日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在位于上海的超级工厂向普通车主首次交付国产Model 3，马斯克在现场开心得脱衣跳舞暖场。</span></p><p><span>就在一年前，工厂破土动工，一众领导例行鼓掌，马斯克同样忍不住嘚瑟。</span></p><p><span>每次嘚瑟的理由都非常充分。</span></p><p><strong><span>在中美贸易频繁摩擦的2019年，特斯拉在中国却畅行无阻。</span></strong></p><p><span>最快速度拿到审批，最快速度拿到中国各家银行的低息贷款，最快速度拿到大片工厂土地，还成为中国有史以来第一家外商独资车企，特斯拉仿佛主角光环附体。</span></p><p><span>为了特斯拉工厂的落地，上海市还取消了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车在当地建厂，后者当时已经动工一年有余。</span></p><p><span>然后，仅仅357天，一片农田变成了一座超级工厂，还完成了生产到交付的全过程。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f399e802434c28f458b08ca9889aeec9\"/></p><p><span>马斯克看愣了，“实话实说，在我此前的人生里，从没见过什么东西建得这么快！”</span></p><p><span>就在两年前，特斯拉还四面楚歌，产能不足，高管出走，甚至上演“私有化闹剧”，马斯克在愚人节自嘲“特斯拉已经完全、彻底地破产了。”</span></p><p><span>如今，特斯拉总市值达到861亿美元</span><span>（约合人民币5956亿元）</span><span>，仅次于丰田和大众，成为市值最高的美国汽车制造商。</span></p><p><span>能如此风光，有个原因正如马斯克所说，</span><span>“没有中国（政府）的支持就没有特斯拉的今天。”</span><span>有人评价，特斯拉享受的是</span><span>“<strong>国企级待遇</strong>”。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36813a2197e10f47f2384e49aa0ecbf0\"/></p><p><span>一家美国企业，中国为什么对它这么好？</span></p><p>1</p><p><span><strong>每天预定1000辆！</strong><strong>一款爆品，做大市场</strong></span></p><p><span>把特斯拉引入中国，并当亲儿子看待的第一个目的，是做大蛋糕。</span></p><p><span>新能源汽车本来是时代级战略，但说起新能源汽车，很多人不屑一顾。</span></p><p><span>原因很现实，比如电池不稳定，尤其到冬天跑不了几公里，而且充电慢还不方便；保值率极低，二手的只能半卖半送；再加上此起彼伏的自燃事件，真是实力劝退。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/185767448108918f848bc0256ec7214a\"/></p><p><span>新能源汽车自燃事故</span></p><p><span>随着补贴退坡，买新能源汽车的人就更少了。</span></p><p><span>乘联会数据显示，2019年全年新能源乘用车销量为108.3万辆，同比增长7.4%，而2018年全年新能源乘用车销售100.8万辆，同比增长88.5%，增速大幅下降。</span></p><p><span>这种情况下，把特斯拉找来救场，或许可行。</span></p><p><span>第一，特斯拉的品牌、技术，以及产品优势，就算对电动车不感兴趣的人都有所耳闻。<strong>特斯拉有破圈的潜质。</strong></span></p><p><span>在中国，认可特斯拉的人不在少数。目前，中国是特斯拉最大的海外销售市场且增速迅猛。数据显示，截至 2019 年第三季度，特斯拉在中国的销售额已经达到6.69亿美元。</span></p><p><span>有用户甚至说，就像“手机不知道买什么就买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，电动车想不出买什么就买特斯拉”。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eada65f314532d8e9cf8207572f7417b\"/></p><p><strong><span>第二，“廉价版”特斯拉有爆品潜质。</span></strong></p><p><span>1月3日，特斯拉新一代主打车型Model 3迎来降价消息。</span></p><p><span>由中国工厂生产的标准续航升级版Model 3</span><span>（包含基础版辅助驾驶功能）</span><span>售价从原来的35.58万元降价至29.905万</span><span>（含补贴后）</span><span>。</span></p><p><span>之前面对Model S/X动辄百万的起步价，大多数喜欢特斯拉的人只能憋着。如今Model 3就“亲民”许多。</span></p><p><span>据线下销售人员称，</span><span>国产Model 3现在每天的预订量已经高达1000余辆</span><span>，“如果晚一天下订单，你将会迟一周提车”，生产多少便交付多少。</span></p><p><span>而且，</span><span>国产化的特斯拉还有进一步降价的空间。</span></p><p><span>目前国产Model 3的零部件本地化率为30%，到年中将达到70%，年底将实现100%的本地化率。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">兴业证券</a>预估，国产Model 3具备最大27%-34%的降价空间，最低售价或低至19.7万元！</span></p><p><span>而在充电便捷性方面——几乎是电动汽车最令人头疼的问题——特斯拉也走在了前面。</span></p><p><span>现在特斯拉的超充站已经覆盖超过140个城市，超级充电桩数量已突破2300个，目的地充电桩也已突破2100个。作为对比，截止到2020年1月3日，在蔚来APP上能搜到的换电站只有119座。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4f390a83ad82eaf09c9c3cba89172a\"/></p><p><span>当年iPhone 4/4S横空出世，很大程度上培养了用户对智能手机的热情，此后智能手机市场规模爆炸式增长。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉或许没那么大作用，但意义相同。</span></p><p>2</p><p><strong><span>国产车里的牛鬼蛇神，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>好日子快到头了！</span></strong></p><p><span>易到创始人周航曾问马斯克：难道你不怕失败吗？</span></p><p><span>他说：“我之所以去做，不是因为这些事可以成功，而仅仅因为我想去做，这是我对世界未来的主张。”</span></p><p><span>马斯克的主张是加速全球向可持续能源转变，所以他还有一句话，</span><span>“如果某一品牌足以超过特斯拉的成就，特斯拉愿意破产。”</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e27ae37e85b9caec55b344d6e36acd6\"/></p><p><span>在这样的人面前，国内同行不得不打起十二分精神。</span></p><p><span>刀哥认为，这也是与特斯拉合作的第二个意义：</span><strong><span>加速规范市场环境。</span></strong></p><p><span>一直以来，国家对新能源汽车的扶持力度不可谓不大。根据测算，2013年到2016年，整个补贴期间，补贴总额超过3000亿！</span></p><p><span>结果呢？各地、各路资金一窝蜂地大规模投资电动车，引起大量低水平、同质化的竞争。</span></p><p><span>更可恨的，是骗补之风席卷行业。</span></p><p><span>2016年3月9日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>苏舜亚通汽车销售服务有限公司总经理刘鹏在其办公室内自缢身亡，他留下了一封遗书，指控比亚迪无牌上车，骗取国家补贴；10天后，苏州金龙总经理吴文文跳楼自杀身亡，这家公司事后被证实骗了国家5个多亿。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9f5d430185c13047cd70523a24f377\"/></p><p><span>扶持多年，可是在质量、口碑、规模等方面，国内的新能源汽车企业与特斯拉渐行渐远，令人心寒。</span></p><p><span>所以在2019年，补贴退坡和“引狼入室”，同时来临。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉已经放出话来，2020年能卖多少车，取决于能生产多少车。</span><span>下半场的淘汰赛正式开始！</span></p><p><span>尤其是这次特斯拉携中国版Model 3进场，火药味更浓。</span></p><p><span>Model 3在美国已经称霸中型豪华轿车市场，碾压BBA。在美国，2019年第三季度，Model 3的销量=宝马2系+3系+4系+5系总销量的168.7%！</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320224d5526b793375fd4abdc9dea107\"/></p><p><span>这样一款产品杀进中国，就像战争导火线。</span></p><p><span>小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏曾发<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>明确表示：“等小鹏P7出来肯定辗压。”</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230d8e41b292761072a069311d6088f2\"/></p><p><span>蔚来汽车创始人李斌也公开表示特斯拉是“加州温室里的花朵”，“最终胜利一定属于中国汽车品牌”。</span></p><p><span>马斯克回了一张图，图中文字是“和平从来不是一个选项”，作为他对“如何看待中国造车新势力比如蔚来”的回答。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b014916b182209150d281a067e175e69\"/></p><p><span>敢这么说，马斯克还是有些底气的。</span></p><p><span>首先，特斯拉的电池成本全球最低。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>提供的报告显示，特斯拉与松下合作的锂电池生产技术正在不断压低成本，达到了111美元/kWh</span><span>（约合人民币767元/kWh）</span><span>，高居业内第一，比第二名的LG化学高20%左右。</span></p><p><span>众所周知，新能源汽车中，电池占的成本最高，达到38%左右。</span></p><p><span>其次，技术端，特斯拉的电池管理技术首屈一指。特斯拉的电池组高达7千多节，48万公里行驶里程电池衰减不到5%。续航里程、充电速率和无人驾驶技术也是独一档的存在。</span></p><p><span>最后是价格，大规模量产后的特斯拉不断降价抢占市场。Model 3就是个例子。</span></p><p><span>汽车行业是典型的规模型产业，年产20万辆以下很难摊平成本。特斯拉也是在迈过这个坎后刚刚实现盈利。业内人士分析，特斯拉从年产量2万辆爬升至20万辆，分摊在每辆车上的成本相差近1倍。</span></p><p><span>2019年第四季度，特斯拉实现11.2万台车辆交付，远超国内造车新势力的领头羊蔚来汽车8224辆的交付量，而这个成绩对蔚来而言已经非常亮眼。</span></p><p><span>所以在特斯拉宣布Model 3降价后，蔚来的反应比当初李斌的豪言壮语来得更真实。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eae1a4dfbd36fa4d06365067500c897\"/></p><p><span>刚公布降价时，搜索特斯拉，出来的是蔚来的广告。现在已撤下。</span></p><p><span>连蔚来都不淡定了，国内还有几个能淡定？</span></p><p><span>在未来，特斯拉Model 3的价格还会下降，而第二款车型Model Y的国产项目也已经启动，冲击只会越来越大。</span></p><p><span>不在冲击中爆发，就在冲击中灭亡，这就是国内企业的未来。</span></p><p>3</p><p><span><strong>利用特斯拉弯道超车</strong></span></p><p><span>造车水平是一个国家工业水平的集中体现。在汽车领域，中国憋屈了太久。燃油车核心的三大件</span><span>（发动机、变速箱、底盘）</span><span>，中资企业的水平堪忧。</span></p><p><strong><span>新能源汽车是中国弯道超车的一个机会。</span></strong></p><p><span>在巨额的补贴以及政策扶持之后，成绩已经肉眼可见。</span></p><p><span>现在，中国是全球最大的新能源汽车市场，连续三年销量在全世界居首。</span></p><p><span>更有意义的是，中国在电池、电控和电机等核心领域，中国与美、日、德等汽车强国也没有了明显差距。在新能源产业链最重要的上游和中游，全球前十的公司，我们占了一大半。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0397a3da28de2444a4ec959f8b5648\"/></p><p><span>我国有部分厂家打入特斯拉充电设备供应商目录。图片来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">国泰君安</a>证券研究</span></p><p><span>国内还形成了新能源产业集群。现在京津、长三角、泛珠三角、西南、中部等全国主要的汽车产区都有对应的新能源产业集群。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉的中国工厂能这么快落地，就离不开这样的基础。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9fe8647ba8ca94892da157fbd9d922e\"/></p><p><span>特斯拉产业链核心公司区位</span></p><p><span>但目前中国在电动车产业链上有个最薄弱的环节：<strong>整车制造。</strong></span></p><p><span>要把这个环节做好，需要一整个产业链的支撑和完善。在整车领域，国内的老企业或新势力，都不堪重用。</span></p><p><span>被誉为“汽车界的苹果”的特斯拉，就派上用场了。</span></p><p><span>2009年，苹果基于成本和平衡供应商的考虑，开始扶持中国产业链，把中国消费电子零配件企业带到了全球顶级的水平。</span></p><p><span>7年前，在苹果全球156家供应商中，中国大陆厂商仅有8家。而在苹果2019全球200大供应商信息，中国大陆苹果产业链供应商增长近3倍，供应商数量占比已升至15%</span><span>（中国大陆+中国香港合计40家，中国台湾6家）</span><span>。</span></p><p><span>最终，在苹果的带动下建立起来的完整供应链，也极大促进了“华米OV”的发展，拉近了国产手机和苹果手机的距离。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b30fb43a0b4d2646d28e94bf4e9dc1\"/></p><p><span>特斯拉和苹果很像，掌握核心竞争力，对供应商的控制力极强，自上而下的精品打造模式，自建闭环的生态链系统。</span></p><p><span>因此</span><span>有不少机构认为，特斯拉产业链机会将有望复制苹果的黄金十年。</span></p><p><span>退一步说，随着特斯拉供应商的全面国产化，哪怕没能重现苹果当年的事迹，也能为中国锻炼出更优秀的供应商，输出汽车行业的人才、理念。</span></p><p><span>中国出现汽车界的“华米OV”，不是不可能。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>结语：</span></strong></span></p><p><span>元旦当天，特斯拉在其官方微信公众号上发了张图，充满挑衅意味。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d15b4306867e3b33041b38cb7bfa3f\"/></p><p><span>国内同行，不得不警惕。</span></p><p><span>未来几年，特斯拉在中国能不能继续“嚣张”下去，就看国内同行的表现了。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉是搅活市场的鲶鱼，还是大杀四方的鲨鱼，最终答案取决于本土车企的态度和实力。</span></p><p><span>一流的竞争者，能不能逼出一流的本土企业？拭目以待。</span></p><h2><span></span></h2><h2><span>©THE END</span></h2><h1></h1><p><span><strong><span>刀哥重磅推荐</span></strong></span></p><p><span>点击图片直接阅读</span></p><p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad478cc9ff4d89aacae364f42794950\"/></span></span></p><p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbadc4bd3439cc9e70926881fa5af86\"/></span></span></p><p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be336d8c75c761b338ebeab33d805ae\"/></span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3bb30ceeda89c76712e58f53a1ff2c\"/></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>两年前濒临破产，如今市值5956亿！中国为什么要助它起死回生？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两年前濒临破产，如今市值5956亿！中国为什么要助它起死回生？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1023100042\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd95e24719f249c0bbc96822817a73e4);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">金错刀 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-01-11 12:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p><img arial=\"\" auto=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d54d4e373c4f4a3e3176d335d7c3e83\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>文/金错刀频道  祥燎</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/607397c73abc9c8acd40c915ed76bcb6\"/></p><p><span>能让马斯克情不自已，一年内两次尬舞的，只能是来自中国的春风。</span></p><p><span>1月7日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在位于上海的超级工厂向普通车主首次交付国产Model 3，马斯克在现场开心得脱衣跳舞暖场。</span></p><p><span>就在一年前，工厂破土动工，一众领导例行鼓掌，马斯克同样忍不住嘚瑟。</span></p><p><span>每次嘚瑟的理由都非常充分。</span></p><p><strong><span>在中美贸易频繁摩擦的2019年，特斯拉在中国却畅行无阻。</span></strong></p><p><span>最快速度拿到审批，最快速度拿到中国各家银行的低息贷款，最快速度拿到大片工厂土地，还成为中国有史以来第一家外商独资车企，特斯拉仿佛主角光环附体。</span></p><p><span>为了特斯拉工厂的落地，上海市还取消了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车在当地建厂，后者当时已经动工一年有余。</span></p><p><span>然后，仅仅357天，一片农田变成了一座超级工厂，还完成了生产到交付的全过程。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f399e802434c28f458b08ca9889aeec9\"/></p><p><span>马斯克看愣了，“实话实说，在我此前的人生里，从没见过什么东西建得这么快！”</span></p><p><span>就在两年前，特斯拉还四面楚歌，产能不足，高管出走，甚至上演“私有化闹剧”，马斯克在愚人节自嘲“特斯拉已经完全、彻底地破产了。”</span></p><p><span>如今，特斯拉总市值达到861亿美元</span><span>（约合人民币5956亿元）</span><span>，仅次于丰田和大众，成为市值最高的美国汽车制造商。</span></p><p><span>能如此风光，有个原因正如马斯克所说，</span><span>“没有中国（政府）的支持就没有特斯拉的今天。”</span><span>有人评价，特斯拉享受的是</span><span>“<strong>国企级待遇</strong>”。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36813a2197e10f47f2384e49aa0ecbf0\"/></p><p><span>一家美国企业，中国为什么对它这么好？</span></p><p>1</p><p><span><strong>每天预定1000辆！</strong><strong>一款爆品，做大市场</strong></span></p><p><span>把特斯拉引入中国，并当亲儿子看待的第一个目的，是做大蛋糕。</span></p><p><span>新能源汽车本来是时代级战略，但说起新能源汽车，很多人不屑一顾。</span></p><p><span>原因很现实，比如电池不稳定，尤其到冬天跑不了几公里，而且充电慢还不方便；保值率极低，二手的只能半卖半送；再加上此起彼伏的自燃事件，真是实力劝退。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/185767448108918f848bc0256ec7214a\"/></p><p><span>新能源汽车自燃事故</span></p><p><span>随着补贴退坡，买新能源汽车的人就更少了。</span></p><p><span>乘联会数据显示，2019年全年新能源乘用车销量为108.3万辆，同比增长7.4%，而2018年全年新能源乘用车销售100.8万辆，同比增长88.5%，增速大幅下降。</span></p><p><span>这种情况下，把特斯拉找来救场，或许可行。</span></p><p><span>第一，特斯拉的品牌、技术，以及产品优势，就算对电动车不感兴趣的人都有所耳闻。<strong>特斯拉有破圈的潜质。</strong></span></p><p><span>在中国，认可特斯拉的人不在少数。目前，中国是特斯拉最大的海外销售市场且增速迅猛。数据显示，截至 2019 年第三季度，特斯拉在中国的销售额已经达到6.69亿美元。</span></p><p><span>有用户甚至说，就像“手机不知道买什么就买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，电动车想不出买什么就买特斯拉”。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eada65f314532d8e9cf8207572f7417b\"/></p><p><strong><span>第二，“廉价版”特斯拉有爆品潜质。</span></strong></p><p><span>1月3日，特斯拉新一代主打车型Model 3迎来降价消息。</span></p><p><span>由中国工厂生产的标准续航升级版Model 3</span><span>（包含基础版辅助驾驶功能）</span><span>售价从原来的35.58万元降价至29.905万</span><span>（含补贴后）</span><span>。</span></p><p><span>之前面对Model S/X动辄百万的起步价，大多数喜欢特斯拉的人只能憋着。如今Model 3就“亲民”许多。</span></p><p><span>据线下销售人员称，</span><span>国产Model 3现在每天的预订量已经高达1000余辆</span><span>，“如果晚一天下订单，你将会迟一周提车”，生产多少便交付多少。</span></p><p><span>而且，</span><span>国产化的特斯拉还有进一步降价的空间。</span></p><p><span>目前国产Model 3的零部件本地化率为30%，到年中将达到70%，年底将实现100%的本地化率。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">兴业证券</a>预估，国产Model 3具备最大27%-34%的降价空间，最低售价或低至19.7万元！</span></p><p><span>而在充电便捷性方面——几乎是电动汽车最令人头疼的问题——特斯拉也走在了前面。</span></p><p><span>现在特斯拉的超充站已经覆盖超过140个城市，超级充电桩数量已突破2300个，目的地充电桩也已突破2100个。作为对比，截止到2020年1月3日，在蔚来APP上能搜到的换电站只有119座。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4f390a83ad82eaf09c9c3cba89172a\"/></p><p><span>当年iPhone 4/4S横空出世，很大程度上培养了用户对智能手机的热情，此后智能手机市场规模爆炸式增长。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉或许没那么大作用，但意义相同。</span></p><p>2</p><p><strong><span>国产车里的牛鬼蛇神，</span></strong></p><p><strong><span>好日子快到头了！</span></strong></p><p><span>易到创始人周航曾问马斯克：难道你不怕失败吗？</span></p><p><span>他说：“我之所以去做，不是因为这些事可以成功，而仅仅因为我想去做，这是我对世界未来的主张。”</span></p><p><span>马斯克的主张是加速全球向可持续能源转变，所以他还有一句话，</span><span>“如果某一品牌足以超过特斯拉的成就，特斯拉愿意破产。”</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e27ae37e85b9caec55b344d6e36acd6\"/></p><p><span>在这样的人面前，国内同行不得不打起十二分精神。</span></p><p><span>刀哥认为，这也是与特斯拉合作的第二个意义：</span><strong><span>加速规范市场环境。</span></strong></p><p><span>一直以来，国家对新能源汽车的扶持力度不可谓不大。根据测算，2013年到2016年，整个补贴期间，补贴总额超过3000亿！</span></p><p><span>结果呢？各地、各路资金一窝蜂地大规模投资电动车，引起大量低水平、同质化的竞争。</span></p><p><span>更可恨的，是骗补之风席卷行业。</span></p><p><span>2016年3月9日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>苏舜亚通汽车销售服务有限公司总经理刘鹏在其办公室内自缢身亡，他留下了一封遗书，指控比亚迪无牌上车，骗取国家补贴；10天后，苏州金龙总经理吴文文跳楼自杀身亡，这家公司事后被证实骗了国家5个多亿。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c9f5d430185c13047cd70523a24f377\"/></p><p><span>扶持多年，可是在质量、口碑、规模等方面，国内的新能源汽车企业与特斯拉渐行渐远，令人心寒。</span></p><p><span>所以在2019年，补贴退坡和“引狼入室”，同时来临。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉已经放出话来，2020年能卖多少车，取决于能生产多少车。</span><span>下半场的淘汰赛正式开始！</span></p><p><span>尤其是这次特斯拉携中国版Model 3进场，火药味更浓。</span></p><p><span>Model 3在美国已经称霸中型豪华轿车市场，碾压BBA。在美国，2019年第三季度，Model 3的销量=宝马2系+3系+4系+5系总销量的168.7%！</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320224d5526b793375fd4abdc9dea107\"/></p><p><span>这样一款产品杀进中国，就像战争导火线。</span></p><p><span>小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏曾发<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>明确表示：“等小鹏P7出来肯定辗压。”</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/230d8e41b292761072a069311d6088f2\"/></p><p><span>蔚来汽车创始人李斌也公开表示特斯拉是“加州温室里的花朵”，“最终胜利一定属于中国汽车品牌”。</span></p><p><span>马斯克回了一张图，图中文字是“和平从来不是一个选项”，作为他对“如何看待中国造车新势力比如蔚来”的回答。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b014916b182209150d281a067e175e69\"/></p><p><span>敢这么说，马斯克还是有些底气的。</span></p><p><span>首先，特斯拉的电池成本全球最低。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>提供的报告显示，特斯拉与松下合作的锂电池生产技术正在不断压低成本，达到了111美元/kWh</span><span>（约合人民币767元/kWh）</span><span>，高居业内第一，比第二名的LG化学高20%左右。</span></p><p><span>众所周知，新能源汽车中，电池占的成本最高，达到38%左右。</span></p><p><span>其次，技术端，特斯拉的电池管理技术首屈一指。特斯拉的电池组高达7千多节，48万公里行驶里程电池衰减不到5%。续航里程、充电速率和无人驾驶技术也是独一档的存在。</span></p><p><span>最后是价格，大规模量产后的特斯拉不断降价抢占市场。Model 3就是个例子。</span></p><p><span>汽车行业是典型的规模型产业，年产20万辆以下很难摊平成本。特斯拉也是在迈过这个坎后刚刚实现盈利。业内人士分析，特斯拉从年产量2万辆爬升至20万辆，分摊在每辆车上的成本相差近1倍。</span></p><p><span>2019年第四季度，特斯拉实现11.2万台车辆交付，远超国内造车新势力的领头羊蔚来汽车8224辆的交付量，而这个成绩对蔚来而言已经非常亮眼。</span></p><p><span>所以在特斯拉宣布Model 3降价后，蔚来的反应比当初李斌的豪言壮语来得更真实。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1eae1a4dfbd36fa4d06365067500c897\"/></p><p><span>刚公布降价时，搜索特斯拉，出来的是蔚来的广告。现在已撤下。</span></p><p><span>连蔚来都不淡定了，国内还有几个能淡定？</span></p><p><span>在未来，特斯拉Model 3的价格还会下降，而第二款车型Model Y的国产项目也已经启动，冲击只会越来越大。</span></p><p><span>不在冲击中爆发，就在冲击中灭亡，这就是国内企业的未来。</span></p><p>3</p><p><span><strong>利用特斯拉弯道超车</strong></span></p><p><span>造车水平是一个国家工业水平的集中体现。在汽车领域，中国憋屈了太久。燃油车核心的三大件</span><span>（发动机、变速箱、底盘）</span><span>，中资企业的水平堪忧。</span></p><p><strong><span>新能源汽车是中国弯道超车的一个机会。</span></strong></p><p><span>在巨额的补贴以及政策扶持之后，成绩已经肉眼可见。</span></p><p><span>现在，中国是全球最大的新能源汽车市场，连续三年销量在全世界居首。</span></p><p><span>更有意义的是，中国在电池、电控和电机等核心领域，中国与美、日、德等汽车强国也没有了明显差距。在新能源产业链最重要的上游和中游，全球前十的公司，我们占了一大半。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca0397a3da28de2444a4ec959f8b5648\"/></p><p><span>我国有部分厂家打入特斯拉充电设备供应商目录。图片来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">国泰君安</a>证券研究</span></p><p><span>国内还形成了新能源产业集群。现在京津、长三角、泛珠三角、西南、中部等全国主要的汽车产区都有对应的新能源产业集群。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉的中国工厂能这么快落地，就离不开这样的基础。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9fe8647ba8ca94892da157fbd9d922e\"/></p><p><span>特斯拉产业链核心公司区位</span></p><p><span>但目前中国在电动车产业链上有个最薄弱的环节：<strong>整车制造。</strong></span></p><p><span>要把这个环节做好，需要一整个产业链的支撑和完善。在整车领域，国内的老企业或新势力，都不堪重用。</span></p><p><span>被誉为“汽车界的苹果”的特斯拉，就派上用场了。</span></p><p><span>2009年，苹果基于成本和平衡供应商的考虑，开始扶持中国产业链，把中国消费电子零配件企业带到了全球顶级的水平。</span></p><p><span>7年前，在苹果全球156家供应商中，中国大陆厂商仅有8家。而在苹果2019全球200大供应商信息，中国大陆苹果产业链供应商增长近3倍，供应商数量占比已升至15%</span><span>（中国大陆+中国香港合计40家，中国台湾6家）</span><span>。</span></p><p><span>最终，在苹果的带动下建立起来的完整供应链，也极大促进了“华米OV”的发展，拉近了国产手机和苹果手机的距离。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b30fb43a0b4d2646d28e94bf4e9dc1\"/></p><p><span>特斯拉和苹果很像，掌握核心竞争力，对供应商的控制力极强，自上而下的精品打造模式，自建闭环的生态链系统。</span></p><p><span>因此</span><span>有不少机构认为，特斯拉产业链机会将有望复制苹果的黄金十年。</span></p><p><span>退一步说，随着特斯拉供应商的全面国产化，哪怕没能重现苹果当年的事迹，也能为中国锻炼出更优秀的供应商，输出汽车行业的人才、理念。</span></p><p><span>中国出现汽车界的“华米OV”，不是不可能。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>结语：</span></strong></span></p><p><span>元旦当天，特斯拉在其官方微信公众号上发了张图，充满挑衅意味。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d15b4306867e3b33041b38cb7bfa3f\"/></p><p><span>国内同行，不得不警惕。</span></p><p><span>未来几年，特斯拉在中国能不能继续“嚣张”下去，就看国内同行的表现了。</span></p><p><span>特斯拉是搅活市场的鲶鱼，还是大杀四方的鲨鱼，最终答案取决于本土车企的态度和实力。</span></p><p><span>一流的竞争者，能不能逼出一流的本土企业？拭目以待。</span></p><h2><span></span></h2><h2><span>©THE END</span></h2><h1></h1><p><span><strong><span>刀哥重磅推荐</span></strong></span></p><p><span>点击图片直接阅读</span></p><p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad478cc9ff4d89aacae364f42794950\"/></span></span></p><p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbadc4bd3439cc9e70926881fa5af86\"/></span></span></p><p><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3be336d8c75c761b338ebeab33d805ae\"/></span></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3bb30ceeda89c76712e58f53a1ff2c\"/></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/431bc32c61991963aae176a1ed8a3a68","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","09086":"华夏纳指-U","03086":"华夏纳指","AAPL":"苹果","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzNDY0NzQwMQ==&mid=2247524216&idx=1&sn=06d2d4bfe9289f01d5f6247121e1e4f2&chksm=fa93587ecde4d168336fd60b29bd20094bed0965e13b28f76d8ffbc12bd8c45b4fc5cf6f979a&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2002636261","content_text":"文/金错刀频道  祥燎能让马斯克情不自已，一年内两次尬舞的，只能是来自中国的春风。1月7日，特斯拉在位于上海的超级工厂向普通车主首次交付国产Model 3，马斯克在现场开心得脱衣跳舞暖场。就在一年前，工厂破土动工，一众领导例行鼓掌，马斯克同样忍不住嘚瑟。每次嘚瑟的理由都非常充分。在中美贸易频繁摩擦的2019年，特斯拉在中国却畅行无阻。最快速度拿到审批，最快速度拿到中国各家银行的低息贷款，最快速度拿到大片工厂土地，还成为中国有史以来第一家外商独资车企，特斯拉仿佛主角光环附体。为了特斯拉工厂的落地，上海市还取消了蔚来汽车在当地建厂，后者当时已经动工一年有余。然后，仅仅357天，一片农田变成了一座超级工厂，还完成了生产到交付的全过程。马斯克看愣了，“实话实说，在我此前的人生里，从没见过什么东西建得这么快！”就在两年前，特斯拉还四面楚歌，产能不足，高管出走，甚至上演“私有化闹剧”，马斯克在愚人节自嘲“特斯拉已经完全、彻底地破产了。”如今，特斯拉总市值达到861亿美元（约合人民币5956亿元），仅次于丰田和大众，成为市值最高的美国汽车制造商。能如此风光，有个原因正如马斯克所说，“没有中国（政府）的支持就没有特斯拉的今天。”有人评价，特斯拉享受的是“国企级待遇”。一家美国企业，中国为什么对它这么好？1每天预定1000辆！一款爆品，做大市场把特斯拉引入中国，并当亲儿子看待的第一个目的，是做大蛋糕。新能源汽车本来是时代级战略，但说起新能源汽车，很多人不屑一顾。原因很现实，比如电池不稳定，尤其到冬天跑不了几公里，而且充电慢还不方便；保值率极低，二手的只能半卖半送；再加上此起彼伏的自燃事件，真是实力劝退。新能源汽车自燃事故随着补贴退坡，买新能源汽车的人就更少了。乘联会数据显示，2019年全年新能源乘用车销量为108.3万辆，同比增长7.4%，而2018年全年新能源乘用车销售100.8万辆，同比增长88.5%，增速大幅下降。这种情况下，把特斯拉找来救场，或许可行。第一，特斯拉的品牌、技术，以及产品优势，就算对电动车不感兴趣的人都有所耳闻。特斯拉有破圈的潜质。在中国，认可特斯拉的人不在少数。目前，中国是特斯拉最大的海外销售市场且增速迅猛。数据显示，截至 2019 年第三季度，特斯拉在中国的销售额已经达到6.69亿美元。有用户甚至说，就像“手机不知道买什么就买苹果，电动车想不出买什么就买特斯拉”。第二，“廉价版”特斯拉有爆品潜质。1月3日，特斯拉新一代主打车型Model 3迎来降价消息。由中国工厂生产的标准续航升级版Model 3（包含基础版辅助驾驶功能）售价从原来的35.58万元降价至29.905万（含补贴后）。之前面对Model S/X动辄百万的起步价，大多数喜欢特斯拉的人只能憋着。如今Model 3就“亲民”许多。据线下销售人员称，国产Model 3现在每天的预订量已经高达1000余辆，“如果晚一天下订单，你将会迟一周提车”，生产多少便交付多少。而且，国产化的特斯拉还有进一步降价的空间。目前国产Model 3的零部件本地化率为30%，到年中将达到70%，年底将实现100%的本地化率。兴业证券预估，国产Model 3具备最大27%-34%的降价空间，最低售价或低至19.7万元！而在充电便捷性方面——几乎是电动汽车最令人头疼的问题——特斯拉也走在了前面。现在特斯拉的超充站已经覆盖超过140个城市，超级充电桩数量已突破2300个，目的地充电桩也已突破2100个。作为对比，截止到2020年1月3日，在蔚来APP上能搜到的换电站只有119座。当年iPhone 4/4S横空出世，很大程度上培养了用户对智能手机的热情，此后智能手机市场规模爆炸式增长。特斯拉或许没那么大作用，但意义相同。2国产车里的牛鬼蛇神，好日子快到头了！易到创始人周航曾问马斯克：难道你不怕失败吗？他说：“我之所以去做，不是因为这些事可以成功，而仅仅因为我想去做，这是我对世界未来的主张。”马斯克的主张是加速全球向可持续能源转变，所以他还有一句话，“如果某一品牌足以超过特斯拉的成就，特斯拉愿意破产。”在这样的人面前，国内同行不得不打起十二分精神。刀哥认为，这也是与特斯拉合作的第二个意义：加速规范市场环境。一直以来，国家对新能源汽车的扶持力度不可谓不大。根据测算，2013年到2016年，整个补贴期间，补贴总额超过3000亿！结果呢？各地、各路资金一窝蜂地大规模投资电动车，引起大量低水平、同质化的竞争。更可恨的，是骗补之风席卷行业。2016年3月9日，比亚迪苏舜亚通汽车销售服务有限公司总经理刘鹏在其办公室内自缢身亡，他留下了一封遗书，指控比亚迪无牌上车，骗取国家补贴；10天后，苏州金龙总经理吴文文跳楼自杀身亡，这家公司事后被证实骗了国家5个多亿。扶持多年，可是在质量、口碑、规模等方面，国内的新能源汽车企业与特斯拉渐行渐远，令人心寒。所以在2019年，补贴退坡和“引狼入室”，同时来临。特斯拉已经放出话来，2020年能卖多少车，取决于能生产多少车。下半场的淘汰赛正式开始！尤其是这次特斯拉携中国版Model 3进场，火药味更浓。Model 3在美国已经称霸中型豪华轿车市场，碾压BBA。在美国，2019年第三季度，Model 3的销量=宝马2系+3系+4系+5系总销量的168.7%！这样一款产品杀进中国，就像战争导火线。小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏曾发微博明确表示：“等小鹏P7出来肯定辗压。”蔚来汽车创始人李斌也公开表示特斯拉是“加州温室里的花朵”，“最终胜利一定属于中国汽车品牌”。马斯克回了一张图，图中文字是“和平从来不是一个选项”，作为他对“如何看待中国造车新势力比如蔚来”的回答。敢这么说，马斯克还是有些底气的。首先，特斯拉的电池成本全球最低。根据瑞银提供的报告显示，特斯拉与松下合作的锂电池生产技术正在不断压低成本，达到了111美元/kWh（约合人民币767元/kWh），高居业内第一，比第二名的LG化学高20%左右。众所周知，新能源汽车中，电池占的成本最高，达到38%左右。其次，技术端，特斯拉的电池管理技术首屈一指。特斯拉的电池组高达7千多节，48万公里行驶里程电池衰减不到5%。续航里程、充电速率和无人驾驶技术也是独一档的存在。最后是价格，大规模量产后的特斯拉不断降价抢占市场。Model 3就是个例子。汽车行业是典型的规模型产业，年产20万辆以下很难摊平成本。特斯拉也是在迈过这个坎后刚刚实现盈利。业内人士分析，特斯拉从年产量2万辆爬升至20万辆，分摊在每辆车上的成本相差近1倍。2019年第四季度，特斯拉实现11.2万台车辆交付，远超国内造车新势力的领头羊蔚来汽车8224辆的交付量，而这个成绩对蔚来而言已经非常亮眼。所以在特斯拉宣布Model 3降价后，蔚来的反应比当初李斌的豪言壮语来得更真实。刚公布降价时，搜索特斯拉，出来的是蔚来的广告。现在已撤下。连蔚来都不淡定了，国内还有几个能淡定？在未来，特斯拉Model 3的价格还会下降，而第二款车型Model Y的国产项目也已经启动，冲击只会越来越大。不在冲击中爆发，就在冲击中灭亡，这就是国内企业的未来。3利用特斯拉弯道超车造车水平是一个国家工业水平的集中体现。在汽车领域，中国憋屈了太久。燃油车核心的三大件（发动机、变速箱、底盘），中资企业的水平堪忧。新能源汽车是中国弯道超车的一个机会。在巨额的补贴以及政策扶持之后，成绩已经肉眼可见。现在，中国是全球最大的新能源汽车市场，连续三年销量在全世界居首。更有意义的是，中国在电池、电控和电机等核心领域，中国与美、日、德等汽车强国也没有了明显差距。在新能源产业链最重要的上游和中游，全球前十的公司，我们占了一大半。我国有部分厂家打入特斯拉充电设备供应商目录。图片来源：国泰君安证券研究国内还形成了新能源产业集群。现在京津、长三角、泛珠三角、西南、中部等全国主要的汽车产区都有对应的新能源产业集群。特斯拉的中国工厂能这么快落地，就离不开这样的基础。特斯拉产业链核心公司区位但目前中国在电动车产业链上有个最薄弱的环节：整车制造。要把这个环节做好，需要一整个产业链的支撑和完善。在整车领域，国内的老企业或新势力，都不堪重用。被誉为“汽车界的苹果”的特斯拉，就派上用场了。2009年，苹果基于成本和平衡供应商的考虑，开始扶持中国产业链，把中国消费电子零配件企业带到了全球顶级的水平。7年前，在苹果全球156家供应商中，中国大陆厂商仅有8家。而在苹果2019全球200大供应商信息，中国大陆苹果产业链供应商增长近3倍，供应商数量占比已升至15%（中国大陆+中国香港合计40家，中国台湾6家）。最终，在苹果的带动下建立起来的完整供应链，也极大促进了“华米OV”的发展，拉近了国产手机和苹果手机的距离。特斯拉和苹果很像，掌握核心竞争力，对供应商的控制力极强，自上而下的精品打造模式，自建闭环的生态链系统。因此有不少机构认为，特斯拉产业链机会将有望复制苹果的黄金十年。退一步说，随着特斯拉供应商的全面国产化，哪怕没能重现苹果当年的事迹，也能为中国锻炼出更优秀的供应商，输出汽车行业的人才、理念。中国出现汽车界的“华米OV”，不是不可能。结语：元旦当天，特斯拉在其官方微信公众号上发了张图，充满挑衅意味。国内同行，不得不警惕。未来几年，特斯拉在中国能不能继续“嚣张”下去，就看国内同行的表现了。特斯拉是搅活市场的鲶鱼，还是大杀四方的鲨鱼，最终答案取决于本土车企的态度和实力。一流的竞争者，能不能逼出一流的本土企业？拭目以待。©THE END刀哥重磅推荐点击图片直接阅读","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3514868712619672","authorId":"3514868712619672","name":"小手冰凉super","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6befb39c188ebcceb21bd76c99b9cb","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3514868712619672","authorIdStr":"3514868712619672"},"content":"请问您收到Ssally的伴手礼了吗？","text":"请问您收到Ssally的伴手礼了吗？","html":"请问您收到Ssally的伴手礼了吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911039792,"gmtCreate":1577892844816,"gmtModify":1704336541751,"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504264251982830","authorIdStr":"3504264251982830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这也是产品派？","listText":"这也是产品派？","text":"这也是产品派？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911039792","repostId":"2000606803","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2000606803","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1577887043,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2000606803?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-01-01 21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国电动汽车第一品牌：成功追上蔚来汽车，这家公司估值达400亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2000606803","media":"柳先说","summary":"近日，“2019全球独角兽500强”榜单正式发布，其中在造车新势力行列，威马汽车的估值达到60亿美元（折合人民币约417亿元），其价值已成功追上蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、奇点汽车等竞争对手，成为国内估值最高","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/11110206687/0\"/><p>近日，“2019全球独角兽500强”榜单正式发布，其中在造车新势力行列，威马汽车的估值达到60亿美元（折合人民币约417亿元），其价值已成功追上<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车、小鹏汽车、奇点汽车等竞争对手，成为国内估值最高的新能源汽车独角兽。</p><p>公开的资料显示：威马汽车成立只有短短4年时间，是一家较为年轻的新能源汽车企业，致力于推动智慧出行产业的发展和落地，同时也是国内新能源汽车产品及出行方案提供商。截至目前，申请、获批的专利达到1242项，人工智能领域的专利突破100项。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/11110206688/0\"/><p>出生于上海的沈晖（威马汽车创始人）在广州长大，从小学习成绩优异。17岁那年，考进华南理工大学就读。毕业后他选择去美国继续深造，并获得了结构工程和工商管理硕士学位。随后，他在美国开始了职业生涯，先后在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETN\">伊顿</a>集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BWA\">博格华纳</a>集团等知名企业工作。</p><p>大概在10年前，沈晖进入吉利担任集团副总裁一职。他最亮眼的业绩是带领团队拿下沃尔沃，同时将其从福特体系中分割出来，并实现盈利。按理说，如果继续待在吉利，肯定是平步青云。但在13年的时候，他去美国哈佛商学院AMP深造，慢慢淡出集团核心管理层。</p><p>彼时，新能源汽车产业开始兴起，蔚来、小鹏等企业相继成立。早有创业打算的沈晖，也在这个风口下创办了威马汽车。但国内新能源汽车市场竞争压力不小，如何实现弯道超车是他首先要考虑的问题。他发现国内消费者更加关注产品本身的体验，而对品牌没有太高的忠诚度。这也意味着只要威马把产品做好，便能在竞争激烈的市场上占据一席之地。</p><p>威马一开始就对标行业老大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>。沈晖打造了一个智能体系和重整价值链全流程，由此大幅度提高了供应链周转效率，同时也满足了消费者的个性化需求。另一方面，威马要做的不仅仅是一辆车，而是要改变大众出行生态和出行体验，同时在定价上下了一番功夫。差异化优势主要体现在智能化、大数据运营、新零售服务体系、人才体系方面和生态建设方面。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/11110206689/0\"/><p>最近两年，虽然新能源汽车产业发展得如火如荼，但消费者接受度还有待提升。其中很重要的一个原因在于动力电池，很多电动车用了几年后电池寿命迅速衰减，而更换价格不菲。威马汽车针对这个痛点推出了动力电池终身质保期等一系列售后保障措施。</p><p>与威马汽车注重产品本身不同，蔚来汽车更注重品牌方面的塑造。换句话说就是，威马做的是产品派，而蔚来则是品牌派。两种模式孰优孰劣不好说，用数据说话：2019年前三季度，威马汽车销量为1.27万辆，蔚来汽车的销量为1.23万辆。随着特斯拉上海超级工厂年底实现量产后，或将进一步压缩造车新势力的生存空间。在面对特斯拉来袭，寻找共存之道变得极为迫切。</p><p>有行业人士分析指出：从行业发展趋势来看，新能源汽车产业无疑有着巨大的前景。同时也吸引了众多跨界玩家，使得市场竞争进一步加剧。可以预见自主品牌新能源市场的格局将重新洗牌。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国电动汽车第一品牌：成功追上蔚来汽车，这家公司估值达400亿</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国电动汽车第一品牌：成功追上蔚来汽车，这家公司估值达400亿\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-01 21:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202001012157547a321682&s=b><strong>柳先说</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，“2019全球独角兽500强”榜单正式发布，其中在造车新势力行列，威马汽车的估值达到60亿美元（折合人民币约417亿元），其价值已成功追上蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、奇点汽车等竞争对手，成为国内估值最高的新能源汽车独角兽。公开的资料显示：威马汽车成立只有短短4年时间，是一家较为年轻的新能源汽车企业，致力于推动智慧出行产业的发展和落地，同时也是国内新能源汽车产品及出行方案提供商。截至目前，申请、获批的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202001012157547a321682&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaf10f59d529fccc557480730989e342","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202001012157547a321682&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2000606803","content_text":"近日，“2019全球独角兽500强”榜单正式发布，其中在造车新势力行列，威马汽车的估值达到60亿美元（折合人民币约417亿元），其价值已成功追上蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、奇点汽车等竞争对手，成为国内估值最高的新能源汽车独角兽。公开的资料显示：威马汽车成立只有短短4年时间，是一家较为年轻的新能源汽车企业，致力于推动智慧出行产业的发展和落地，同时也是国内新能源汽车产品及出行方案提供商。截至目前，申请、获批的专利达到1242项，人工智能领域的专利突破100项。出生于上海的沈晖（威马汽车创始人）在广州长大，从小学习成绩优异。17岁那年，考进华南理工大学就读。毕业后他选择去美国继续深造，并获得了结构工程和工商管理硕士学位。随后，他在美国开始了职业生涯，先后在伊顿集团、博格华纳集团等知名企业工作。大概在10年前，沈晖进入吉利担任集团副总裁一职。他最亮眼的业绩是带领团队拿下沃尔沃，同时将其从福特体系中分割出来，并实现盈利。按理说，如果继续待在吉利，肯定是平步青云。但在13年的时候，他去美国哈佛商学院AMP深造，慢慢淡出集团核心管理层。彼时，新能源汽车产业开始兴起，蔚来、小鹏等企业相继成立。早有创业打算的沈晖，也在这个风口下创办了威马汽车。但国内新能源汽车市场竞争压力不小，如何实现弯道超车是他首先要考虑的问题。他发现国内消费者更加关注产品本身的体验，而对品牌没有太高的忠诚度。这也意味着只要威马把产品做好，便能在竞争激烈的市场上占据一席之地。威马一开始就对标行业老大特斯拉。沈晖打造了一个智能体系和重整价值链全流程，由此大幅度提高了供应链周转效率，同时也满足了消费者的个性化需求。另一方面，威马要做的不仅仅是一辆车，而是要改变大众出行生态和出行体验，同时在定价上下了一番功夫。差异化优势主要体现在智能化、大数据运营、新零售服务体系、人才体系方面和生态建设方面。最近两年，虽然新能源汽车产业发展得如火如荼，但消费者接受度还有待提升。其中很重要的一个原因在于动力电池，很多电动车用了几年后电池寿命迅速衰减，而更换价格不菲。威马汽车针对这个痛点推出了动力电池终身质保期等一系列售后保障措施。与威马汽车注重产品本身不同，蔚来汽车更注重品牌方面的塑造。换句话说就是，威马做的是产品派，而蔚来则是品牌派。两种模式孰优孰劣不好说，用数据说话：2019年前三季度，威马汽车销量为1.27万辆，蔚来汽车的销量为1.23万辆。随着特斯拉上海超级工厂年底实现量产后，或将进一步压缩造车新势力的生存空间。在面对特斯拉来袭，寻找共存之道变得极为迫切。有行业人士分析指出：从行业发展趋势来看，新能源汽车产业无疑有着巨大的前景。同时也吸引了众多跨界玩家，使得市场竞争进一步加剧。可以预见自主品牌新能源市场的格局将重新洗牌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":939706193,"gmtCreate":1569334726912,"gmtModify":1704719179252,"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504264251982830","authorIdStr":"3504264251982830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我就不信蔚来只是理想的8折不到","listText":"我就不信蔚来只是理想的8折不到","text":"我就不信蔚来只是理想的8折不到","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939706193","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995605838,"gmtCreate":1565960352224,"gmtModify":1704713565651,"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504264251982830","authorIdStr":"3504264251982830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"理想估值都29亿美元，大伙继续加油砸，我来接盘当韭菜吧。","listText":"理想估值都29亿美元，大伙继续加油砸，我来接盘当韭菜吧。","text":"理想估值都29亿美元，大伙继续加油砸，我来接盘当韭菜吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995605838","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":990770649,"gmtCreate":1562839632281,"gmtModify":1704704404632,"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504264251982830","authorIdStr":"3504264251982830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我就没听哪些所谓的股神忠告，要不然真成韭菜被洗了，从5补仓到2.5[龇牙]","listText":"我就没听哪些所谓的股神忠告，要不然真成韭菜被洗了，从5补仓到2.5[龇牙]","text":"我就没听哪些所谓的股神忠告，要不然真成韭菜被洗了，从5补仓到2.5[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990770649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":990571716,"gmtCreate":1562722504535,"gmtModify":1704704147210,"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504264251982830","authorIdStr":"3504264251982830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>销量差，我还看多","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$销量差，我还看多","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3a9f7c77ecf5491516faeaab8d0bcc0","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":32,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/990571716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"123729491953760","authorId":"123729491953760","name":"敬辉","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"123729491953760","authorIdStr":"123729491953760"},"content":"6月销量es6至少是2000+","text":"6月销量es6至少是2000+","html":"6月销量es6至少是2000+"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":990947900,"gmtCreate":1562165153700,"gmtModify":1704703381083,"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504264251982830","authorIdStr":"3504264251982830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 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