acliable的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2020-03-27

$波音(BA)$可以空了

2020-03-01

$波音(BA)$多国领空停飞，加上自身问题，完了

2020-03-12

$波音(BA)$答应我，空下去，华尔街也是会做空的

2020-07-14

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$好朋友，再见

2020-04-07

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$18年至今，大型头肩顶

2020-03-20

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$天地板

2020-04-22

$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$都是历史铭记

2020-03-12

$道琼斯(.DJI)$记念历史第一次，一周内两次熔断停牌

2020-03-12

破产见

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-03-09

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$记录一下，庆幸我参与了这场历史，做空了最强的纳斯达克

2020-02-26

哈哈哈，到了来了想挡也挡不住，空空如也

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Inc.(NFLX)$18年至今，大型头肩顶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921653650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":929130395,"gmtCreate":1585238790317,"gmtModify":1704357586257,"author":{"id":"3504157771590201","authorId":"3504157771590201","name":"acliable","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504157771590201","authorIdStr":"3504157771590201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>可以空了","listText":"<a 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22:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"个股异动：波音跌超10%，创逾两年多以来新低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147418985","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"推荐阅读：737MAX停飞整一年，何时可以重返蓝天？\n\n3月11日讯，美股盘中，波音$(BA)$跌超10%，创逾两年多以来新低。去年3月10日，由埃塞俄比亚航空公司执飞的一架波音737 MAX飞机坠毁。事故发生后，这款飞机被全球停飞。在事故发生一周年之际，美国波音公司公布财务账本，波音至少失去了187亿美元。","content":"<p><b>推荐阅读：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170462192\" target=\"_blank\"><b>737MAX停飞整一年，何时可以重返蓝天？</b></a></p><p><span>3月11日讯，美股盘中，波音<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$(BA)$</a>跌超10%，创逾两年多以来新低。去年3月10日，由埃塞俄比亚航空公司执飞的一架波音737 MAX飞机坠毁。事故发生后，这款飞机被全球停飞。在事故发生一周年之际，美国波音公司公布财务账本，波音至少失去了187亿美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144242a4a99ceaeb95c40456686fa34a\" /></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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22:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>推荐阅读：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1170462192\" target=\"_blank\"><b>737MAX停飞整一年，何时可以重返蓝天？</b></a></p><p><span>3月11日讯，美股盘中，波音<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$(BA)$</a>跌超10%，创逾两年多以来新低。去年3月10日，由埃塞俄比亚航空公司执飞的一架波音737 MAX飞机坠毁。事故发生后，这款飞机被全球停飞。在事故发生一周年之际，美国波音公司公布财务账本，波音至少失去了187亿美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144242a4a99ceaeb95c40456686fa34a\" /></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db65f3d4f6f7c47bb1a0c9e744a2fd64","relate_stocks":{"BA":"波音"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147418985","content_text":"推荐阅读：737MAX停飞整一年，何时可以重返蓝天？3月11日讯，美股盘中，波音$(BA)$跌超10%，创逾两年多以来新低。去年3月10日，由埃塞俄比亚航空公司执飞的一架波音737 MAX飞机坠毁。事故发生后，这款飞机被全球停飞。在事故发生一周年之际，美国波音公司公布财务账本，波音至少失去了187亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981535616,"gmtCreate":1583764491835,"gmtModify":1704350815399,"author":{"id":"3504157771590201","authorId":"3504157771590201","name":"acliable","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504157771590201","authorIdStr":"3504157771590201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>记录一下，庆幸我参与了这场历史，做空了最强的纳斯达克","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>记录一下，庆幸我参与了这场历史，做空了最强的纳斯达克","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$记录一下，庆幸我参与了这场历史，做空了最强的纳斯达克","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981535616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983044047,"gmtCreate":1583029829789,"gmtModify":1704348574835,"author":{"id":"3504157771590201","authorId":"3504157771590201","name":"acliable","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504157771590201","authorIdStr":"3504157771590201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>多国领空停飞，加上自身问题，完了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>多国领空停飞，加上自身问题，完了","text":"$波音(BA)$多国领空停飞，加上自身问题，完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983044047","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485423462978990","authorId":"3485423462978990","name":"Keith007","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3485423462978990","authorIdStr":"3485423462978990"},"content":"看看你的空单","text":"看看你的空单","html":"看看你的空单"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989029140,"gmtCreate":1582646968180,"gmtModify":1704347185275,"author":{"id":"3504157771590201","authorId":"3504157771590201","name":"acliable","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504157771590201","authorIdStr":"3504157771590201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈，到了来了想挡也挡不住，空空如也","listText":"哈哈哈，到了来了想挡也挡不住，空空如也","text":"哈哈哈，到了来了想挡也挡不住，空空如也","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989029140","repostId":"1112647132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112647132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"1055767104","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953"},"pubTimestamp":1582631755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112647132?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-25 19:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"放心，美股死不了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112647132","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"昨晚，美股在疫情蔓延的消息下开启了暴跌模式，三大股指全线杀跌，道指、纳指、标普分别下跌3.56%、3.71%和3.35%。\n与此同时，市场避险情绪飙升，黄金期货创出7年新高。\n美股这一波牛市已经超过1","content":"<p><span>昨晚，美股在疫情蔓延的消息下开启了暴跌模式，三大股指全线杀跌，道指、纳指、标普分别下跌3.56%、3.71%和3.35%。</span></p>\n<p><span>与此同时，市场避险情绪飙升，黄金期货创出7年新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>美股这一波牛市已经超过10年了，是否到了要翻车的时候呢？</span></p>\n<p><b><span>数据统计</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美股从2009年到现在的牛市，除了自身科技股的强劲外，</span><span><b>离不开降息和宽松两个法宝。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>我们看看从2009年以来，美联储的资产负债表，从50000亿美元，一直上涨至400000万亿美元，中间上涨了8倍。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0efc399f77e860fe39dd2ce333392b12\"></p>\n<p><span>宽松的同时，美国也一直处于低利率的环境中。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先是10年期美国国债利率，一直在震荡下行。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09967e55495df1a1eb9fb4670e998b82\"></p>\n<p><span>而1年期美国国债利率更是长期保持在0利率附近，直至2015年才开始逐渐加息。无风险利率如此低，资金自然都会涌入股票市场，追求更高回报。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265752c0bb3a658d5673638eb74e7ab9\"></p>\n<p><span>另外，1年期国债的三个利率高峰，分别2000年、2006年和2018年，最后都出现了回调，分别是互联网泡沫、次贷危机和18年的贸易战。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是巧合，还是先行指标呢？</span></p>\n<p><span>另外PMI数据也跌破50，之前出现这种情况是在2015-2016年，当时美股也出现了小幅度的回调。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86d8d4f5ac935e7fa7986412157d7fa0\"></p>\n<p><span>估值上升了，我们再来看看几个主要板块的企业利润增速，是否匹配高估值。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先是消费电子类的龙头：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>。苹果从2019年年初的140美元低位，一年之间上涨超过1倍，超过了300美元，不光收复了前期失地，还创出了新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而在这个过程中，驱动力完全是估值。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64498fea599c9b279e30c999c0d36840\"></p>\n<p><span>从财务上看，苹果的业绩成长性已经过了最高速的阶段，完全不是盈利支持公司股价上涨。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda7ed7155281ac203b57412cbbd2b74\"></p>\n<p><span>再来看半导体产业，净利润前10名的企业，净利润在2019年都出现了不同程度的下滑，但是PE仍然不约而同的走高。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3302e13ef3509f0c66e0af8f172c184\"></p>\n<p><span>互联网和软件行业也有类似情况，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>的盈利增速下降到近年来最低水平，但是不妨碍其估值继续提升。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7501e1454bfa7c69bb7d5e28b6d63b03\"></p>\n<p><b><span>总体来看，目前美股的科技股，利润增速下滑，估值水平反而在提升。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>最后，我们来看一个巴菲特常用来衡量市场的指标：市值/GDP。</span></p>\n<p><span>这个数值在2010年是17.3万亿美元(市值)/15万亿美元(美国GDP)，约等于1；到了2019年，则是47万亿美元(市值)/21万亿美元(美国GDP)，已经超过2。</span></p>\n<p><span>估值到了高位，但是利率还处于下行通道，未来，美股会继续回调吗？</span></p>\n<p><b><span>回调历史</span></b></p>\n<p><span>股票投资就好像走钢丝，我们要学习的并不是平衡地走钢丝，而是要学会适应走钢丝时候的不平衡。</span></p>\n<p><span>美股诞生百余年，从来就不平静，其中经历了多次的回调，但是每次回调都不影响后面继续创出新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>离我们最近的是2018年的回调，道琼斯指数从年初的26000点高位，年底一度只剩下21000点左右，整体回落20%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb0c1633ce8284eef7640a25ca8e85f\"></p>\n<p><span>但是随着2019年美联储再次降息和扩表，美国国债利率开始下降，股票市场又一次王者归来，道琼斯指数上涨26%。</span></p>\n<p><span>再往前看是2008年金融危机，全年道琼斯下跌33%，同年雷曼兄弟破产，全球陷入流动性危机。不过讽刺的是，次年美联储开启了量化宽松，为市场注入流动性，开启了10年的大牛市，变相用人民的钱，为华尔街买单。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4485b26b1727a880af884c9d48fa3dc\"></p>\n<p><span>再往前数，无论是2001年的科技股泡沫，还是1987年的\"黑色星期一\"，虽然股市短期内暴跌，但是后面都屡屡再创新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>特别是1987年，当时美股经历了多年的牛市，标普市盈率从1985年的10倍，上涨到1987年的23倍。</span></p>\n<p><span>但是即使是这样，道琼斯指数在经历单日下跌22%和全年30%的回调后，又在1989年收复全部失地，并且又再创出新高。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4ca57b6aac51908e015d48a0f37e0bf\"></p>\n<p><span>巴菲特就是在这个阶段买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，并且持有10年，成为其投资人生最经典的一个案例。</span></p>\n<p><span>最后，我们再来看一个数据，标普500指数今天下跌3%，这是自1950年以来发生的104次，此后不同时间的回报率如图所示。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c095abfe2ebc0567f14df0cb156fe1de\"></p>\n<p><span>以1年期来衡量的回报，基本都会回到合理的水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>从这个表格我们也可以看到，巴菲特说的长期持有、将股票看成企业一部分的重要性，因为只有这样，才能更好的抵抗短期的波动。</span></p>\n<p><span>希望我们都学会，如何在不平衡的状态下走钢丝。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>放心，美股死不了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n放心，美股死不了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055767104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-02-25 19:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>昨晚，美股在疫情蔓延的消息下开启了暴跌模式，三大股指全线杀跌，道指、纳指、标普分别下跌3.56%、3.71%和3.35%。</span></p>\n<p><span>与此同时，市场避险情绪飙升，黄金期货创出7年新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>美股这一波牛市已经超过10年了，是否到了要翻车的时候呢？</span></p>\n<p><b><span>数据统计</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美股从2009年到现在的牛市，除了自身科技股的强劲外，</span><span><b>离不开降息和宽松两个法宝。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>我们看看从2009年以来，美联储的资产负债表，从50000亿美元，一直上涨至400000万亿美元，中间上涨了8倍。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0efc399f77e860fe39dd2ce333392b12\"></p>\n<p><span>宽松的同时，美国也一直处于低利率的环境中。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先是10年期美国国债利率，一直在震荡下行。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09967e55495df1a1eb9fb4670e998b82\"></p>\n<p><span>而1年期美国国债利率更是长期保持在0利率附近，直至2015年才开始逐渐加息。无风险利率如此低，资金自然都会涌入股票市场，追求更高回报。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/265752c0bb3a658d5673638eb74e7ab9\"></p>\n<p><span>另外，1年期国债的三个利率高峰，分别2000年、2006年和2018年，最后都出现了回调，分别是互联网泡沫、次贷危机和18年的贸易战。</span></p>\n<p><span>这是巧合，还是先行指标呢？</span></p>\n<p><span>另外PMI数据也跌破50，之前出现这种情况是在2015-2016年，当时美股也出现了小幅度的回调。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86d8d4f5ac935e7fa7986412157d7fa0\"></p>\n<p><span>估值上升了，我们再来看看几个主要板块的企业利润增速，是否匹配高估值。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先是消费电子类的龙头：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>。苹果从2019年年初的140美元低位，一年之间上涨超过1倍，超过了300美元，不光收复了前期失地，还创出了新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>然而在这个过程中，驱动力完全是估值。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64498fea599c9b279e30c999c0d36840\"></p>\n<p><span>从财务上看，苹果的业绩成长性已经过了最高速的阶段，完全不是盈利支持公司股价上涨。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eda7ed7155281ac203b57412cbbd2b74\"></p>\n<p><span>再来看半导体产业，净利润前10名的企业，净利润在2019年都出现了不同程度的下滑，但是PE仍然不约而同的走高。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3302e13ef3509f0c66e0af8f172c184\"></p>\n<p><span>互联网和软件行业也有类似情况，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>的盈利增速下降到近年来最低水平，但是不妨碍其估值继续提升。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7501e1454bfa7c69bb7d5e28b6d63b03\"></p>\n<p><b><span>总体来看，目前美股的科技股，利润增速下滑，估值水平反而在提升。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>最后，我们来看一个巴菲特常用来衡量市场的指标：市值/GDP。</span></p>\n<p><span>这个数值在2010年是17.3万亿美元(市值)/15万亿美元(美国GDP)，约等于1；到了2019年，则是47万亿美元(市值)/21万亿美元(美国GDP)，已经超过2。</span></p>\n<p><span>估值到了高位，但是利率还处于下行通道，未来，美股会继续回调吗？</span></p>\n<p><b><span>回调历史</span></b></p>\n<p><span>股票投资就好像走钢丝，我们要学习的并不是平衡地走钢丝，而是要学会适应走钢丝时候的不平衡。</span></p>\n<p><span>美股诞生百余年，从来就不平静，其中经历了多次的回调，但是每次回调都不影响后面继续创出新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>离我们最近的是2018年的回调，道琼斯指数从年初的26000点高位，年底一度只剩下21000点左右，整体回落20%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb0c1633ce8284eef7640a25ca8e85f\"></p>\n<p><span>但是随着2019年美联储再次降息和扩表，美国国债利率开始下降，股票市场又一次王者归来，道琼斯指数上涨26%。</span></p>\n<p><span>再往前看是2008年金融危机，全年道琼斯下跌33%，同年雷曼兄弟破产，全球陷入流动性危机。不过讽刺的是，次年美联储开启了量化宽松，为市场注入流动性，开启了10年的大牛市，变相用人民的钱，为华尔街买单。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4485b26b1727a880af884c9d48fa3dc\"></p>\n<p><span>再往前数，无论是2001年的科技股泡沫，还是1987年的\"黑色星期一\"，虽然股市短期内暴跌，但是后面都屡屡再创新高。</span></p>\n<p><span>特别是1987年，当时美股经历了多年的牛市，标普市盈率从1985年的10倍，上涨到1987年的23倍。</span></p>\n<p><span>但是即使是这样，道琼斯指数在经历单日下跌22%和全年30%的回调后，又在1989年收复全部失地，并且又再创出新高。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4ca57b6aac51908e015d48a0f37e0bf\"></p>\n<p><span>巴菲特就是在这个阶段买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，并且持有10年，成为其投资人生最经典的一个案例。</span></p>\n<p><span>最后，我们再来看一个数据，标普500指数今天下跌3%，这是自1950年以来发生的104次，此后不同时间的回报率如图所示。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c095abfe2ebc0567f14df0cb156fe1de\"></p>\n<p><span>以1年期来衡量的回报，基本都会回到合理的水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>从这个表格我们也可以看到，巴菲特说的长期持有、将股票看成企业一部分的重要性，因为只有这样，才能更好的抵抗短期的波动。</span></p>\n<p><span>希望我们都学会，如何在不平衡的状态下走钢丝。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d10c1816b9dd31519f156ff849533b8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112647132","content_text":"昨晚，美股在疫情蔓延的消息下开启了暴跌模式，三大股指全线杀跌，道指、纳指、标普分别下跌3.56%、3.71%和3.35%。\n与此同时，市场避险情绪飙升，黄金期货创出7年新高。\n美股这一波牛市已经超过10年了，是否到了要翻车的时候呢？\n数据统计\n美股从2009年到现在的牛市，除了自身科技股的强劲外，离不开降息和宽松两个法宝。\n我们看看从2009年以来，美联储的资产负债表，从50000亿美元，一直上涨至400000万亿美元，中间上涨了8倍。\n\n宽松的同时，美国也一直处于低利率的环境中。\n首先是10年期美国国债利率，一直在震荡下行。\n\n而1年期美国国债利率更是长期保持在0利率附近，直至2015年才开始逐渐加息。无风险利率如此低，资金自然都会涌入股票市场，追求更高回报。\n\n另外，1年期国债的三个利率高峰，分别2000年、2006年和2018年，最后都出现了回调，分别是互联网泡沫、次贷危机和18年的贸易战。\n这是巧合，还是先行指标呢？\n另外PMI数据也跌破50，之前出现这种情况是在2015-2016年，当时美股也出现了小幅度的回调。\n\n估值上升了，我们再来看看几个主要板块的企业利润增速，是否匹配高估值。\n首先是消费电子类的龙头：苹果。苹果从2019年年初的140美元低位，一年之间上涨超过1倍，超过了300美元，不光收复了前期失地，还创出了新高。\n然而在这个过程中，驱动力完全是估值。\n\n从财务上看，苹果的业绩成长性已经过了最高速的阶段，完全不是盈利支持公司股价上涨。\n\n再来看半导体产业，净利润前10名的企业，净利润在2019年都出现了不同程度的下滑，但是PE仍然不约而同的走高。\n\n互联网和软件行业也有类似情况，谷歌、Facebook的盈利增速下降到近年来最低水平，但是不妨碍其估值继续提升。\n\n总体来看，目前美股的科技股，利润增速下滑，估值水平反而在提升。\n最后，我们来看一个巴菲特常用来衡量市场的指标：市值/GDP。\n这个数值在2010年是17.3万亿美元(市值)/15万亿美元(美国GDP)，约等于1；到了2019年，则是47万亿美元(市值)/21万亿美元(美国GDP)，已经超过2。\n估值到了高位，但是利率还处于下行通道，未来，美股会继续回调吗？\n回调历史\n股票投资就好像走钢丝，我们要学习的并不是平衡地走钢丝，而是要学会适应走钢丝时候的不平衡。\n美股诞生百余年，从来就不平静，其中经历了多次的回调，但是每次回调都不影响后面继续创出新高。\n离我们最近的是2018年的回调，道琼斯指数从年初的26000点高位，年底一度只剩下21000点左右，整体回落20%。\n\n但是随着2019年美联储再次降息和扩表，美国国债利率开始下降，股票市场又一次王者归来，道琼斯指数上涨26%。\n再往前看是2008年金融危机，全年道琼斯下跌33%，同年雷曼兄弟破产，全球陷入流动性危机。不过讽刺的是，次年美联储开启了量化宽松，为市场注入流动性，开启了10年的大牛市，变相用人民的钱，为华尔街买单。\n\n再往前数，无论是2001年的科技股泡沫，还是1987年的\"黑色星期一\"，虽然股市短期内暴跌，但是后面都屡屡再创新高。\n特别是1987年，当时美股经历了多年的牛市，标普市盈率从1985年的10倍，上涨到1987年的23倍。\n但是即使是这样，道琼斯指数在经历单日下跌22%和全年30%的回调后，又在1989年收复全部失地，并且又再创出新高。\n\n巴菲特就是在这个阶段买入可口可乐，并且持有10年，成为其投资人生最经典的一个案例。\n最后，我们再来看一个数据，标普500指数今天下跌3%，这是自1950年以来发生的104次，此后不同时间的回报率如图所示。\n\n以1年期来衡量的回报，基本都会回到合理的水平。\n从这个表格我们也可以看到，巴菲特说的长期持有、将股票看成企业一部分的重要性，因为只有这样，才能更好的抵抗短期的波动。\n希望我们都学会，如何在不平衡的状态下走钢丝。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":929130395,"gmtCreate":1585238790317,"gmtModify":1704357586257,"author":{"id":"3504157771590201","authorId":"3504157771590201","name":"acliable","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94539b1fc937f0f9535812cd9dfe4b60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3504157771590201","idStr":"3504157771590201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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