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04-29
一派胡言
中国股市崛起的逻辑： 美联储推迟降息，外资转投“价值”
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2023-12-22
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15:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中国股市崛起的逻辑： 美联储推迟降息，外资转投“价值”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430084600","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"中国A股和港股因其接近历史地位的估值备受市场青睐。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>中国A股和港股因其接近历史地位的估值备受市场青睐，此外，日本和韩国的企业改革措施也支撑了“价值投资”的逻辑。</strong></p></blockquote><p>新年伊始，投资者满怀希望美联储的宽松政策将推动整个亚洲及全球市场的上涨。然而，实际情况与预期大相径庭，最近几周，通货膨胀数据频频给降息预期泼冷水，美联储推迟实施宽松政策，从而打破了投资者对亚洲风险资产普涨的期望。亚洲市场的投资经理们变得更加谨慎，从更广泛的风险资产转向寻找那些能够提供稳定回报的行业和市场。<strong>于是，亚洲市场的“价值投资策略”备受市场青睐。</strong></p><p>一方面，中国股市因其接近历史地位的估值而颇具吸引力，为寻求价值投资的投资者提供了入场机会。此外，日本和韩国的企业改革措施也支撑了价值投资的逻辑。</p><h2 id=\"id_1401210994\">低估值、企业改革、以及内需驱动成为外资焦点</h2><p>随着美联储降息预期大幅推迟，美债相对于亚洲新兴市场的债券更具吸引力，亚洲债券市场的表现较为惨淡。彭博数据显示，亚洲新兴市场的本地货币政府债务今年以来已经下跌了1.7%（以美元计价）。</p><p>亚洲地区的中央银行为了保护本币价值而采取了鹰派政策，<strong>这减少了债券作为传统安全资产的吸引力，使得股市成为了投资者主要的回报来源</strong>。与债券市场相反，MSCI的亚太股市基准指数今年获得了大约1.7%的增长。</p><p>随着对亚洲市场的重新定价，企业改革、低估值股票以及内需驱动的行业正受到基金经理的关注。</p><p><strong>首先，中国以及中国香港股市目前的估值接近历史低点。投资公司如M&G资管对低估的中国股票表现出了浓厚的兴趣。</strong></p><p><strong>其次，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>和安联全球投资（AllianzGI）等大型投资管理公司认为，日本和韩国的企业改革措施支持了价值投资的观点。因为这些措施将提高公司效率和盈利能力，使得这些市场的股票更有吸引力。</strong></p><p><strong>此外，Allspring Global Investments的投资组合经理Gary Tan指出：“长时间的高利率环境会阻碍资金流入亚洲市场。在当前的市场环境中，一些特定行业可能成为投资的“安全港”。例如，印度的基础设施股票、韩国受益于改革的公司、以及中国国内消费和公用事业股。”</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_38519971\">中国股市估值较低，港股已五连阳</h2><p>4月26日A股、港股集体反攻，北向资金疯狂涌入A股，全天单边净买入224.49亿元，创2014年陆股通开通以来单日最高值。</p><p><strong>其中，港股表现非常优异，恒生指数在四月份成为全球表现最好的主要股指之一，4月26日，随着港股收盘，恒生指数近5个交易日累计涨幅达8.8%，创下自2011年以来的最佳周度表现。即使已经大幅反弹，恒生指数当前的市盈率为8.3倍，仍低于5年平均水平的10.2倍。</strong></p><p>分析指出，香港作为全球金融中心的地位得到了中国政府的支持，从政策面看，中国证监会上周推出的5项支持香港资本市场的措施支撑了港股的表现，助力改善港股中长期流动性及提供增量资金。</p><p>有分析师认为，外资转向投资A股的主要原因在于，中国的温和通胀和政府激励经济和资本市场的措施，有助于提振企业盈利和投资者信心，<strong>使得中国股市更能抵御美联储政策的不确定性</strong>。此外，<strong>随着经济数据的改善和企业盈利的恢复</strong>，分析师预计中国市场将继续吸引资金流入和投资者的关注。</p><p>M&G投资管理公司的多资产基金经理Gautam Samarth尤其看好A股和港股，他认为中国市场估值较低，非常适合投资。此外，汇丰控股有限公司的策略师在一份报告中写道，全球新兴市场基金对中国大陆股票的看法已从之前的低配调整为中性，而亚洲基金的持仓则达到了七个月来的高点。与此同时，瑞银集团将中国股票的评级从中性上调至超配，理由是预计盈利将会改善。</p><h2 id=\"id_2222289322\">日本金融股备受投资者青睐</h2><p>有分析指出，尽管日本股市接近技术性调整（股价下跌接近10%），许多投资者仍然看好日本股市，原因在于日本经济增长的潜力和企业改革的积极进展。而且随着日本央行逐步提高利率，日本金融股（尤其是银行股）的吸引力进一步增强。数据显示，日本Topix银行指数今年已经上涨了约25%。</p><p>富达国际的资金管理者George Efstathopoulos表示，无论是出口公司还是与旅游相关的行业，都将从日元贬值和全球需求改善中受益。同时，随着政府债券收益率的上升，日本银行股也将获益。</p><p>PineBridge投资管理公司全球多资产负责人Michael Kelly表示，日本的金融股是当前的热门投资领域，他们已经重仓该领域。</p><h2 id=\"id_657296193\">韩国芯片行业和印度消费制造获外资关注</h2><p>随着韩国政府致力于消除所谓的“韩国折价”以及韩国出口的复苏，韩国芯片行业正逐渐获得市场青睐。</p><p>安联全球投资（AllianzGI）亚太地区多资产负责人Zijian Yang表示：</p><blockquote><p>“从战术角度来看，我们特别看好韩国股票。韩国经济的增长在很大程度上依赖于出口，尤其是高科技产品和半导体。随着全球对半导体需求的增加，美国市场对韩国产品的需求稳定以及中国经济的见底趋势，韩国出口恢复增长，并增强了韩国股市的吸引力。”</p></blockquote><p>此外，有分析指出，印度有庞大的国内消费基础和不断增长的制造业实力，尽管股市估值较高，印度股票仍然是许多投资者长期青睐的对象。</p><p>摩根大通资产管理公司多资产解决方案投资专家Jin Yuejue表示：</p><blockquote><p>“印度在国内消费方面具有强大的潜力，这一点由印度的有利人口结构和宏观经济稳定性所支持。全球企业重新考虑其全球供应链布局的趋势，也有利于该国的商品和服务行业。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国股市崛起的逻辑： 美联储推迟降息，外资转投“价值”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-28 15:32 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713813><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中国A股和港股因其接近历史地位的估值备受市场青睐，此外，日本和韩国的企业改革措施也支撑了“价值投资”的逻辑。新年伊始，投资者满怀希望美联储的宽松政策将推动整个亚洲及全球市场的上涨。然而，实际情况与预期大相径庭，最近几周，通货膨胀数据频频给降息预期泼冷水，美联储推迟实施宽松政策，从而打破了投资者对亚洲风险资产普涨的期望。亚洲市场的投资经理们变得更加谨慎，从更广泛的风险资产转向寻找那些能够提供稳定回报...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713813\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3713813","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2430084600","content_text":"中国A股和港股因其接近历史地位的估值备受市场青睐，此外，日本和韩国的企业改革措施也支撑了“价值投资”的逻辑。新年伊始，投资者满怀希望美联储的宽松政策将推动整个亚洲及全球市场的上涨。然而，实际情况与预期大相径庭，最近几周，通货膨胀数据频频给降息预期泼冷水，美联储推迟实施宽松政策，从而打破了投资者对亚洲风险资产普涨的期望。亚洲市场的投资经理们变得更加谨慎，从更广泛的风险资产转向寻找那些能够提供稳定回报的行业和市场。于是，亚洲市场的“价值投资策略”备受市场青睐。一方面，中国股市因其接近历史地位的估值而颇具吸引力，为寻求价值投资的投资者提供了入场机会。此外，日本和韩国的企业改革措施也支撑了价值投资的逻辑。低估值、企业改革、以及内需驱动成为外资焦点随着美联储降息预期大幅推迟，美债相对于亚洲新兴市场的债券更具吸引力，亚洲债券市场的表现较为惨淡。彭博数据显示，亚洲新兴市场的本地货币政府债务今年以来已经下跌了1.7%（以美元计价）。亚洲地区的中央银行为了保护本币价值而采取了鹰派政策，这减少了债券作为传统安全资产的吸引力，使得股市成为了投资者主要的回报来源。与债券市场相反，MSCI的亚太股市基准指数今年获得了大约1.7%的增长。随着对亚洲市场的重新定价，企业改革、低估值股票以及内需驱动的行业正受到基金经理的关注。首先，中国以及中国香港股市目前的估值接近历史低点。投资公司如M&G资管对低估的中国股票表现出了浓厚的兴趣。其次，摩根大通和安联全球投资（AllianzGI）等大型投资管理公司认为，日本和韩国的企业改革措施支持了价值投资的观点。因为这些措施将提高公司效率和盈利能力，使得这些市场的股票更有吸引力。此外，Allspring Global Investments的投资组合经理Gary Tan指出：“长时间的高利率环境会阻碍资金流入亚洲市场。在当前的市场环境中，一些特定行业可能成为投资的“安全港”。例如，印度的基础设施股票、韩国受益于改革的公司、以及中国国内消费和公用事业股。”中国股市估值较低，港股已五连阳4月26日A股、港股集体反攻，北向资金疯狂涌入A股，全天单边净买入224.49亿元，创2014年陆股通开通以来单日最高值。其中，港股表现非常优异，恒生指数在四月份成为全球表现最好的主要股指之一，4月26日，随着港股收盘，恒生指数近5个交易日累计涨幅达8.8%，创下自2011年以来的最佳周度表现。即使已经大幅反弹，恒生指数当前的市盈率为8.3倍，仍低于5年平均水平的10.2倍。分析指出，香港作为全球金融中心的地位得到了中国政府的支持，从政策面看，中国证监会上周推出的5项支持香港资本市场的措施支撑了港股的表现，助力改善港股中长期流动性及提供增量资金。有分析师认为，外资转向投资A股的主要原因在于，中国的温和通胀和政府激励经济和资本市场的措施，有助于提振企业盈利和投资者信心，使得中国股市更能抵御美联储政策的不确定性。此外，随着经济数据的改善和企业盈利的恢复，分析师预计中国市场将继续吸引资金流入和投资者的关注。M&G投资管理公司的多资产基金经理Gautam Samarth尤其看好A股和港股，他认为中国市场估值较低，非常适合投资。此外，汇丰控股有限公司的策略师在一份报告中写道，全球新兴市场基金对中国大陆股票的看法已从之前的低配调整为中性，而亚洲基金的持仓则达到了七个月来的高点。与此同时，瑞银集团将中国股票的评级从中性上调至超配，理由是预计盈利将会改善。日本金融股备受投资者青睐有分析指出，尽管日本股市接近技术性调整（股价下跌接近10%），许多投资者仍然看好日本股市，原因在于日本经济增长的潜力和企业改革的积极进展。而且随着日本央行逐步提高利率，日本金融股（尤其是银行股）的吸引力进一步增强。数据显示，日本Topix银行指数今年已经上涨了约25%。富达国际的资金管理者George Efstathopoulos表示，无论是出口公司还是与旅游相关的行业，都将从日元贬值和全球需求改善中受益。同时，随着政府债券收益率的上升，日本银行股也将获益。PineBridge投资管理公司全球多资产负责人Michael Kelly表示，日本的金融股是当前的热门投资领域，他们已经重仓该领域。韩国芯片行业和印度消费制造获外资关注随着韩国政府致力于消除所谓的“韩国折价”以及韩国出口的复苏，韩国芯片行业正逐渐获得市场青睐。安联全球投资（AllianzGI）亚太地区多资产负责人Zijian Yang表示：“从战术角度来看，我们特别看好韩国股票。韩国经济的增长在很大程度上依赖于出口，尤其是高科技产品和半导体。随着全球对半导体需求的增加，美国市场对韩国产品的需求稳定以及中国经济的见底趋势，韩国出口恢复增长，并增强了韩国股市的吸引力。”此外，有分析指出，印度有庞大的国内消费基础和不断增长的制造业实力，尽管股市估值较高，印度股票仍然是许多投资者长期青睐的对象。摩根大通资产管理公司多资产解决方案投资专家Jin Yuejue表示：“印度在国内消费方面具有强大的潜力，这一点由印度的有利人口结构和宏观经济稳定性所支持。全球企业重新考虑其全球供应链布局的趋势，也有利于该国的商品和服务行业。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":254913258565744,"gmtCreate":1703245760235,"gmtModify":1703252809646,"author":{"id":"3504138487448729","authorId":"3504138487448729","name":"HKBLOCKONES","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b411f9f028e8f584c1969962e4b45ba5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3504138487448729","authorIdStr":"3504138487448729"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可悲可叹 远离老中丐股","listText":"可悲可叹 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