杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标的个人主页 - 老虎社区

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

顺势而行，止损，轻仓，不频繁交易跟抄底，像阻击手一样等待

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杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

12-18 17:27

$Richtech Robotics(RR)$ 这垃圾涨得真多，小心，落袋为安，

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

12-13

$第一共和银行(FRCB)$ 这股还会涨起来吗？都跌成屎了

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

12-02

$达美乐比萨(DPZ)$ 盈利了跟着老巴做

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-27

$哥伦比亚国家石油(EC)$ 还有人做这只股吗？

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-27

这功能有什么用？让别人知道自己的操盘？还是把以前那个持仓股票百分比图修回来吧，现在都没有那个图了

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-27

感恩节，我喜欢跟耶稣一起吃饭喝酒吹牛逼，一起过节

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-26

$Richtech Robotics(RR)$ 好玩，感觉有潜力

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-23

$Sirius XM Holdings Inc.(SIRI)$ 跟随巴菲特

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-23

看主页面股票总市值是涨了还是跌，然后才去看评论，看个股新闻

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-10

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ 狗庄，拉这么高，想逼空吗

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-08

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ 无语，也许我是错的

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-08

巴菲特说别人狂欢时他感到恐慌，别人恐慌是他感到贪婪，查理说要在有鱼的地方钓鱼，要是知道他死在什么地方，他决定不会去那里！自己细品。

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-07

$微软(MSFT)$ 跌的那几天个个说跌，现在涨了一点个个说还会涨，

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-07

巴菲特，李嘉诚，马斯克，盖茨，都在减持股份，我相信大佬们的眼光，

逆势之下，微软迎来阵痛期？

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-02

$微软(MSFT)$ 大家怎么看微软这一次的下跌，从估值看确实高了，可是长期看还是看好，可能我先止损吧，昨晚尾盘又跌了，说明资金都在跑

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-02

$微软(MSFT)$ 长期看多，一群乌合之众故意打压股价

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-01

Replying to @科迪勒拉:川普胜率更高//@科迪勒拉:我感觉哈里斯将赢，也希望她赢。看了她在华盛顿的演讲后，更希望她赢，不管她将来做得怎么样，她起码表现岀了对公义的坚定追求。反观那个特朗普，妥妥的一个民粹、罪犯。

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-01

特朗普必胜，川普逗逼，我喜欢，幽默

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

11-01

财报出来后还大跌了微软，为何？

杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标

10-31

亏了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"逆势之下，微软迎来阵痛期？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2481672873","media":"美股研究社","summary":"在 7 月底创下历史新高后，微软股价一度跌至每股 400 美元以下，目前交易价格约为每股 410 美元。目前，微软的预期市盈率为 32 倍，预期销售额为 11 倍。美国企业税率可能从 21% 上升至 28%，这可能会损害微软未来创造可观利润的能力。在 24 财年，微软为 1077.9 亿美元的税前收益支付了196.5 亿美元的所得税费用。微软的股价可能很难在短期内再次升值至今年夏天创下的历史最高水平。尽管存在重大风险，预计微软的销售额和息税前利润仍将继续增长。","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f35ccddd22b2ff44f21398148b4160f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"></p><p>尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。</p><p><strong>作者 | RichardSaintvilus</strong></p><p><strong>编译 | 华尔街大事件</strong></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) 是一家很棒的公司，但股价昂贵，目前不值得投资。</strong>尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。云计算业务的放缓和宏观风险的上升也创造了这样一种局面：随着投资者寻求更安全、估值更高的资产，微软股价可能会回落至更低的价格。</p><p><strong>微软在最近几个季度表现良好，第一季度整体收入同比增长两位数。</strong>最近几个季度增长的最大动力之一是该公司的生成式人工智能工具 Copilot，该工具已集成到微软生态系统中的各种个人和企业产品中。去年 Copilot 的发布和随后的付费版本也使微软的股价在今年夏天创下了历史新高。</p><p>在推出近一年后，Copilot 至今仍帮助微软取得令人印象深刻的业绩。在最新的第一季度财报电话会议上，管理层甚至表示，Copilot 在其 CRM 和 ERP 产品组合中的 MAU 环比增长了 60%。由于该工具能够改变不同行业员工的工作流程，微软很可能能够在未来几个季度增加其客户数量。</p><p>此外，各种生成式 AI 工具和平台的采用正在增加，预计今年全球 IT 支出的增长将达到创纪录水平，部分原因是 AI。得益于此，微软很可能能够满足共识，并在未来几年将其收入和收益增长 10% 以上。</p><p><strong>尽管微软早早就搭上了生成式人工智能的列车，并受益于最近几个季度 Copilot 的发布，但自 2024 年初以来，其股价表现仍然不及大型科技公司。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd30ef98f3ee5894d881038ead0c660\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\"></p><p>在 7 月底创下历史新高后，微软股价一度跌至每股 400 美元以下，目前交易价格约为每股 410 美元。8 月份股价大幅贬值表明，尽管存在诸多增长机会，但微软的整体增长故事仍存在缺陷。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993dfaf33e08795d98a6815e158bbf22\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\"></p><p>尽管 Copilot 有所增长，但<strong>Azure 第二季度的喜忧参半的前景导致微软股价在最近一周大跌。</strong>尽管该公司的云业务在未来几个季度可能会继续表现良好，但目前的问题在于预期的增长率是否能证明微软目前的估值是合理的。</p><p>目前，微软的预期市盈率为 32 倍，预期销售额为 11 倍。相比之下，该行业的平均预期市盈率为 24 倍，而预期销售额仅为 3 倍。</p><p>同时，2024 年生成式人工智能市场规模预计为 1370 亿美元，而今年全球软件市场规模预计为 7369.6 亿美元。由于微软目前的市值超过 3 万亿美元，是 2024 年生成式人工智能和软件市场预期总规模的几倍，因此很难证明该公司的多头仓位是合理的，尤其是在最近的业绩指引好坏参半的情况下。</p><p><strong>人们还对微软云业务的未来表现存有疑问。</strong>一些华尔街分析师现在认为，随着竞争对手的业务与 Azure 一样多，该公司在云业务方面的领先地位正在减弱。还有消息称，微软支持的 OpenAI 预计将在 2023 年至 2028 年期间亏损 440 亿美元，然后在 2029 年实现盈利。由于微软预计今年将继续扩展其 AI 基础设施，因此这些努力可能需要一段时间才能获得回报。</p><p>最后，美国经济环境有可能恶化，也会损害微软的增长前景。美国企业税率可能从 21% 上升至 28%，这可能会损害微软未来创造可观利润的能力。在 24 财年，微软为 1077.9 亿美元的税前收益支付了196.5 亿美元的所得税费用。这相当于有效税率为 18.23%。企业税率的上升肯定会损害微软的底线表现。随着挑战的增加，它们可能会限制微软的上升空间。微软的股价可能很难在短期内再次升值至今年夏天创下的历史最高水平。</p><p>上述所有问题和挑战都让我们对微软目前的估值产生质疑。以下是我们的估值模型，该模型显示该公司估值过高，以当前价格建仓风险过大。</p><p>对于该模型，我们使用了 21% 的税率，这是美国的企业税率。我们在微软每股 410.25 美元时建立了这个模型，并预测了该公司未来五年的表现。长期债务和现金数据取自最近的收益报告，而我们模型中的永久增长率为 3%，接近 GDP 增长率。</p><p>我们模型中的折现率为 8.07%。我们通过计算微软当前的税后债务成本和股权成本来找到折现率。为了计算债务成本，我们使用了微软过去 12 个月的数据。为了计算股权成本，我们使用了4.4% 的无风险利率、1.17 的贝塔系数和7.69% 的市场回报率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a12ef1c85f78a5206fea603e0d4a3d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"304\"></p><p>尽管存在重大风险，预计微软的销售额和息税前利润仍将继续增长。这主要是因为预计该公司将保持生成式人工智能的势头，并继续利用正在进行的生成式人工智能革命，这要归功于它是人工智能工具和平台的早期采用者之一。目前的共识与我们的观点相似。所有其他假设都与微软的历史表现相似。</p><p>通过填写预测表，能够计算出微软的 FCF 累计现值、终值、终值的现值和企业价值。在案例中，微软的企业价值为 2.39 万亿美元。然后，能够计算出微软的股权价值，即 2.42 万亿美元，并将其除以流通股数。这帮助我们找出了微软的内在价值，即每股 324.16 美元，比当前市场价格低约 20%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7594df02b58a1aae30ecf4603b96ad62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\"></p><p><strong>微软是一家很棒的公司，但以目前的价格来看，其股票并不是一项很好的投资。</strong>该公司估值过高，其市盈率和其他一些指标都高于该行业的中位数，这在当前环境下是一个坏信号。尽管预计该业务将继续受益于生成式人工智能革命，但各种风险使得分析师建议卖出微软的股票。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n逆势之下，微软迎来阵痛期？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-06 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241106193258aba63d89&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。作者 | RichardSaintvilus编译 | 华尔街大事件微软 ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) 是一家很棒的公司，但股价昂贵，目前不值得投资。尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。云计算业务的放缓和宏观风险的上升也创造了这样一种局面：随着投资者寻求更安全、估值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241106193258aba63d89&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241106193258aba63d89&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2481672873","content_text":"尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。作者 | RichardSaintvilus编译 | 华尔街大事件微软 ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) 是一家很棒的公司，但股价昂贵，目前不值得投资。尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。云计算业务的放缓和宏观风险的上升也创造了这样一种局面：随着投资者寻求更安全、估值更高的资产，微软股价可能会回落至更低的价格。微软在最近几个季度表现良好，第一季度整体收入同比增长两位数。最近几个季度增长的最大动力之一是该公司的生成式人工智能工具 Copilot，该工具已集成到微软生态系统中的各种个人和企业产品中。去年 Copilot 的发布和随后的付费版本也使微软的股价在今年夏天创下了历史新高。在推出近一年后，Copilot 至今仍帮助微软取得令人印象深刻的业绩。在最新的第一季度财报电话会议上，管理层甚至表示，Copilot 在其 CRM 和 ERP 产品组合中的 MAU 环比增长了 60%。由于该工具能够改变不同行业员工的工作流程，微软很可能能够在未来几个季度增加其客户数量。此外，各种生成式 AI 工具和平台的采用正在增加，预计今年全球 IT 支出的增长将达到创纪录水平，部分原因是 AI。得益于此，微软很可能能够满足共识，并在未来几年将其收入和收益增长 10% 以上。尽管微软早早就搭上了生成式人工智能的列车，并受益于最近几个季度 Copilot 的发布，但自 2024 年初以来，其股价表现仍然不及大型科技公司。在 7 月底创下历史新高后，微软股价一度跌至每股 400 美元以下，目前交易价格约为每股 410 美元。8 月份股价大幅贬值表明，尽管存在诸多增长机会，但微软的整体增长故事仍存在缺陷。尽管 Copilot 有所增长，但Azure 第二季度的喜忧参半的前景导致微软股价在最近一周大跌。尽管该公司的云业务在未来几个季度可能会继续表现良好，但目前的问题在于预期的增长率是否能证明微软目前的估值是合理的。目前，微软的预期市盈率为 32 倍，预期销售额为 11 倍。相比之下，该行业的平均预期市盈率为 24 倍，而预期销售额仅为 3 倍。同时，2024 年生成式人工智能市场规模预计为 1370 亿美元，而今年全球软件市场规模预计为 7369.6 亿美元。由于微软目前的市值超过 3 万亿美元，是 2024 年生成式人工智能和软件市场预期总规模的几倍，因此很难证明该公司的多头仓位是合理的，尤其是在最近的业绩指引好坏参半的情况下。人们还对微软云业务的未来表现存有疑问。一些华尔街分析师现在认为，随着竞争对手的业务与 Azure 一样多，该公司在云业务方面的领先地位正在减弱。还有消息称，微软支持的 OpenAI 预计将在 2023 年至 2028 年期间亏损 440 亿美元，然后在 2029 年实现盈利。由于微软预计今年将继续扩展其 AI 基础设施，因此这些努力可能需要一段时间才能获得回报。最后，美国经济环境有可能恶化，也会损害微软的增长前景。美国企业税率可能从 21% 上升至 28%，这可能会损害微软未来创造可观利润的能力。在 24 财年，微软为 1077.9 亿美元的税前收益支付了196.5 亿美元的所得税费用。这相当于有效税率为 18.23%。企业税率的上升肯定会损害微软的底线表现。随着挑战的增加，它们可能会限制微软的上升空间。微软的股价可能很难在短期内再次升值至今年夏天创下的历史最高水平。上述所有问题和挑战都让我们对微软目前的估值产生质疑。以下是我们的估值模型，该模型显示该公司估值过高，以当前价格建仓风险过大。对于该模型，我们使用了 21% 的税率，这是美国的企业税率。我们在微软每股 410.25 美元时建立了这个模型，并预测了该公司未来五年的表现。长期债务和现金数据取自最近的收益报告，而我们模型中的永久增长率为 3%，接近 GDP 增长率。我们模型中的折现率为 8.07%。我们通过计算微软当前的税后债务成本和股权成本来找到折现率。为了计算债务成本，我们使用了微软过去 12 个月的数据。为了计算股权成本，我们使用了4.4% 的无风险利率、1.17 的贝塔系数和7.69% 的市场回报率。尽管存在重大风险，预计微软的销售额和息税前利润仍将继续增长。这主要是因为预计该公司将保持生成式人工智能的势头，并继续利用正在进行的生成式人工智能革命，这要归功于它是人工智能工具和平台的早期采用者之一。目前的共识与我们的观点相似。所有其他假设都与微软的历史表现相似。通过填写预测表，能够计算出微软的 FCF 累计现值、终值、终值的现值和企业价值。在案例中，微软的企业价值为 2.39 万亿美元。然后，能够计算出微软的股权价值，即 2.42 万亿美元，并将其除以流通股数。这帮助我们找出了微软的内在价值，即每股 324.16 美元，比当前市场价格低约 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[开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989286195,"gmtCreate":1582838668917,"gmtModify":1704347968502,"author":{"id":"3503690422459425","authorId":"3503690422459425","name":"杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088532eac890f961cd0f3578b19e001f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503690422459425","authorIdStr":"3503690422459425"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNVC\">$NanoViricides Inc.(NNVC)$</a>&nbsp;盈利 381.77美元，跌到8.20元时我睡着了，没有接回，这是个遗憾，后续看好，还会涨。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNVC\">$NanoViricides Inc.(NNVC)$</a>&nbsp;盈利 381.77美元，跌到8.20元时我睡着了，没有接回，这是个遗憾，后续看好，还会涨。","text":"$NanoViricides Inc.(NNVC)$ 盈利 381.77美元，跌到8.20元时我睡着了，没有接回，这是个遗憾，后续看好，还会涨。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b91a4222b6bcbb4075fde034536387","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989286195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3534672975769834","authorId":"3534672975769834","name":"股市嗦粉哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ebf25d529797b9ce171345339e177b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3534672975769834","authorIdStr":"3534672975769834"},"content":"你要是看着它跌到不到八块，你可能就割肉了。","text":"你要是看着它跌到不到八块，你可能就割肉了。","html":"你要是看着它跌到不到八块，你可能就割肉了。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":935441513,"gmtCreate":1573749628832,"gmtModify":1704726716922,"author":{"id":"3503690422459425","authorId":"3503690422459425","name":"杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088532eac890f961cd0f3578b19e001f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503690422459425","authorIdStr":"3503690422459425"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$</a>&nbsp;救命啊，倒霉啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$</a>&nbsp;救命啊，倒霉啊","text":"$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$ 救命啊，倒霉啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2f96b2398e086b87ebca2d40abd77f4","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/935441513","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3531316032088888","authorId":"3531316032088888","name":"吃饭睡觉打小新","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eac0ffde6a14e8027c90d052f29c36cc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3531316032088888","authorIdStr":"3531316032088888"},"content":"这个价位还好吧，有啥好救命的","text":"这个价位还好吧，有啥好救命的","html":"这个价位还好吧，有啥好救命的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915698498,"gmtCreate":1580813673314,"gmtModify":1704342374171,"author":{"id":"3503690422459425","authorId":"3503690422459425","name":"杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088532eac890f961cd0f3578b19e001f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503690422459425","authorIdStr":"3503690422459425"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNMX\">$Aevi Genomic Medicine Inc(GNMX)$</a>&nbsp;卧槽，还好我没买，呵呵，退市了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNMX\">$Aevi Genomic Medicine Inc(GNMX)$</a>&nbsp;卧槽，还好我没买，呵呵，退市了","text":"$Aevi Genomic Medicine Inc(GNMX)$ 卧槽，还好我没买，呵呵，退市了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915698498","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3524047727953008","authorId":"3524047727953008","name":"大空头CC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3524047727953008","authorIdStr":"3524047727953008"},"content":"合并了 不算什么好消息 亏了30%还好就买了2000刀 昨天合并的那股票大涨 现在亏500多刀 总比渣子都不剩的好","text":"合并了 不算什么好消息 亏了30%还好就买了2000刀 昨天合并的那股票大涨 现在亏500多刀 总比渣子都不剩的好","html":"合并了 不算什么好消息 亏了30%还好就买了2000刀 昨天合并的那股票大涨 现在亏500多刀 总比渣子都不剩的好"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368302806507648,"gmtCreate":1730933627678,"gmtModify":1730933630187,"author":{"id":"3503690422459425","authorId":"3503690422459425","name":"杰西利弗莫尔1亿目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/088532eac890f961cd0f3578b19e001f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503690422459425","authorIdStr":"3503690422459425"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巴菲特，李嘉诚，马斯克，盖茨，都在减持股份，我相信大佬们的眼光，","listText":"巴菲特，李嘉诚，马斯克，盖茨，都在减持股份，我相信大佬们的眼光，","text":"巴菲特，李嘉诚，马斯克，盖茨，都在减持股份，我相信大佬们的眼光，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368302806507648","repostId":"2481672873","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2481672873","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1730891435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2481672873?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-06 19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"逆势之下，微软迎来阵痛期？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2481672873","media":"美股研究社","summary":"在 7 月底创下历史新高后，微软股价一度跌至每股 400 美元以下，目前交易价格约为每股 410 美元。目前，微软的预期市盈率为 32 倍，预期销售额为 11 倍。美国企业税率可能从 21% 上升至 28%，这可能会损害微软未来创造可观利润的能力。在 24 财年，微软为 1077.9 亿美元的税前收益支付了196.5 亿美元的所得税费用。微软的股价可能很难在短期内再次升值至今年夏天创下的历史最高水平。尽管存在重大风险，预计微软的销售额和息税前利润仍将继续增长。","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f35ccddd22b2ff44f21398148b4160f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"></p><p>尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。</p><p><strong>作者 | RichardSaintvilus</strong></p><p><strong>编译 | 华尔街大事件</strong></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) 是一家很棒的公司，但股价昂贵，目前不值得投资。</strong>尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。云计算业务的放缓和宏观风险的上升也创造了这样一种局面：随着投资者寻求更安全、估值更高的资产，微软股价可能会回落至更低的价格。</p><p><strong>微软在最近几个季度表现良好，第一季度整体收入同比增长两位数。</strong>最近几个季度增长的最大动力之一是该公司的生成式人工智能工具 Copilot，该工具已集成到微软生态系统中的各种个人和企业产品中。去年 Copilot 的发布和随后的付费版本也使微软的股价在今年夏天创下了历史新高。</p><p>在推出近一年后，Copilot 至今仍帮助微软取得令人印象深刻的业绩。在最新的第一季度财报电话会议上，管理层甚至表示，Copilot 在其 CRM 和 ERP 产品组合中的 MAU 环比增长了 60%。由于该工具能够改变不同行业员工的工作流程，微软很可能能够在未来几个季度增加其客户数量。</p><p>此外，各种生成式 AI 工具和平台的采用正在增加，预计今年全球 IT 支出的增长将达到创纪录水平，部分原因是 AI。得益于此，微软很可能能够满足共识，并在未来几年将其收入和收益增长 10% 以上。</p><p><strong>尽管微软早早就搭上了生成式人工智能的列车，并受益于最近几个季度 Copilot 的发布，但自 2024 年初以来，其股价表现仍然不及大型科技公司。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfd30ef98f3ee5894d881038ead0c660\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\"></p><p>在 7 月底创下历史新高后，微软股价一度跌至每股 400 美元以下，目前交易价格约为每股 410 美元。8 月份股价大幅贬值表明，尽管存在诸多增长机会，但微软的整体增长故事仍存在缺陷。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/993dfaf33e08795d98a6815e158bbf22\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\"></p><p>尽管 Copilot 有所增长，但<strong>Azure 第二季度的喜忧参半的前景导致微软股价在最近一周大跌。</strong>尽管该公司的云业务在未来几个季度可能会继续表现良好，但目前的问题在于预期的增长率是否能证明微软目前的估值是合理的。</p><p>目前，微软的预期市盈率为 32 倍，预期销售额为 11 倍。相比之下，该行业的平均预期市盈率为 24 倍，而预期销售额仅为 3 倍。</p><p>同时，2024 年生成式人工智能市场规模预计为 1370 亿美元，而今年全球软件市场规模预计为 7369.6 亿美元。由于微软目前的市值超过 3 万亿美元，是 2024 年生成式人工智能和软件市场预期总规模的几倍，因此很难证明该公司的多头仓位是合理的，尤其是在最近的业绩指引好坏参半的情况下。</p><p><strong>人们还对微软云业务的未来表现存有疑问。</strong>一些华尔街分析师现在认为，随着竞争对手的业务与 Azure 一样多，该公司在云业务方面的领先地位正在减弱。还有消息称，微软支持的 OpenAI 预计将在 2023 年至 2028 年期间亏损 440 亿美元，然后在 2029 年实现盈利。由于微软预计今年将继续扩展其 AI 基础设施，因此这些努力可能需要一段时间才能获得回报。</p><p>最后，美国经济环境有可能恶化，也会损害微软的增长前景。美国企业税率可能从 21% 上升至 28%，这可能会损害微软未来创造可观利润的能力。在 24 财年，微软为 1077.9 亿美元的税前收益支付了196.5 亿美元的所得税费用。这相当于有效税率为 18.23%。企业税率的上升肯定会损害微软的底线表现。随着挑战的增加，它们可能会限制微软的上升空间。微软的股价可能很难在短期内再次升值至今年夏天创下的历史最高水平。</p><p>上述所有问题和挑战都让我们对微软目前的估值产生质疑。以下是我们的估值模型，该模型显示该公司估值过高，以当前价格建仓风险过大。</p><p>对于该模型，我们使用了 21% 的税率，这是美国的企业税率。我们在微软每股 410.25 美元时建立了这个模型，并预测了该公司未来五年的表现。长期债务和现金数据取自最近的收益报告，而我们模型中的永久增长率为 3%，接近 GDP 增长率。</p><p>我们模型中的折现率为 8.07%。我们通过计算微软当前的税后债务成本和股权成本来找到折现率。为了计算债务成本，我们使用了微软过去 12 个月的数据。为了计算股权成本，我们使用了4.4% 的无风险利率、1.17 的贝塔系数和7.69% 的市场回报率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a12ef1c85f78a5206fea603e0d4a3d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"304\"></p><p>尽管存在重大风险，预计微软的销售额和息税前利润仍将继续增长。这主要是因为预计该公司将保持生成式人工智能的势头，并继续利用正在进行的生成式人工智能革命，这要归功于它是人工智能工具和平台的早期采用者之一。目前的共识与我们的观点相似。所有其他假设都与微软的历史表现相似。</p><p>通过填写预测表，能够计算出微软的 FCF 累计现值、终值、终值的现值和企业价值。在案例中，微软的企业价值为 2.39 万亿美元。然后，能够计算出微软的股权价值，即 2.42 万亿美元，并将其除以流通股数。这帮助我们找出了微软的内在价值，即每股 324.16 美元，比当前市场价格低约 20%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7594df02b58a1aae30ecf4603b96ad62\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"383\"></p><p><strong>微软是一家很棒的公司，但以目前的价格来看，其股票并不是一项很好的投资。</strong>该公司估值过高，其市盈率和其他一些指标都高于该行业的中位数，这在当前环境下是一个坏信号。尽管预计该业务将继续受益于生成式人工智能革命，但各种风险使得分析师建议卖出微软的股票。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>逆势之下，微软迎来阵痛期？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n逆势之下，微软迎来阵痛期？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-06 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241106193258aba63d89&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。作者 | RichardSaintvilus编译 | 华尔街大事件微软 ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) 是一家很棒的公司，但股价昂贵，目前不值得投资。尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。云计算业务的放缓和宏观风险的上升也创造了这样一种局面：随着投资者寻求更安全、估值...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241106193258aba63d89&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241106193258aba63d89&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2481672873","content_text":"尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。作者 | RichardSaintvilus编译 | 华尔街大事件微软 ( NASDAQ: MSFT ) 是一家很棒的公司，但股价昂贵，目前不值得投资。尽管人工智能革命预计将继续推动销售和盈利，但该股本身已上涨至难以支撑多头仓位的水平。云计算业务的放缓和宏观风险的上升也创造了这样一种局面：随着投资者寻求更安全、估值更高的资产，微软股价可能会回落至更低的价格。微软在最近几个季度表现良好，第一季度整体收入同比增长两位数。最近几个季度增长的最大动力之一是该公司的生成式人工智能工具 Copilot，该工具已集成到微软生态系统中的各种个人和企业产品中。去年 Copilot 的发布和随后的付费版本也使微软的股价在今年夏天创下了历史新高。在推出近一年后，Copilot 至今仍帮助微软取得令人印象深刻的业绩。在最新的第一季度财报电话会议上，管理层甚至表示，Copilot 在其 CRM 和 ERP 产品组合中的 MAU 环比增长了 60%。由于该工具能够改变不同行业员工的工作流程，微软很可能能够在未来几个季度增加其客户数量。此外，各种生成式 AI 工具和平台的采用正在增加，预计今年全球 IT 支出的增长将达到创纪录水平，部分原因是 AI。得益于此，微软很可能能够满足共识，并在未来几年将其收入和收益增长 10% 以上。尽管微软早早就搭上了生成式人工智能的列车，并受益于最近几个季度 Copilot 的发布，但自 2024 年初以来，其股价表现仍然不及大型科技公司。在 7 月底创下历史新高后，微软股价一度跌至每股 400 美元以下，目前交易价格约为每股 410 美元。8 月份股价大幅贬值表明，尽管存在诸多增长机会，但微软的整体增长故事仍存在缺陷。尽管 Copilot 有所增长，但Azure 第二季度的喜忧参半的前景导致微软股价在最近一周大跌。尽管该公司的云业务在未来几个季度可能会继续表现良好，但目前的问题在于预期的增长率是否能证明微软目前的估值是合理的。目前，微软的预期市盈率为 32 倍，预期销售额为 11 倍。相比之下，该行业的平均预期市盈率为 24 倍，而预期销售额仅为 3 倍。同时，2024 年生成式人工智能市场规模预计为 1370 亿美元，而今年全球软件市场规模预计为 7369.6 亿美元。由于微软目前的市值超过 3 万亿美元，是 2024 年生成式人工智能和软件市场预期总规模的几倍，因此很难证明该公司的多头仓位是合理的，尤其是在最近的业绩指引好坏参半的情况下。人们还对微软云业务的未来表现存有疑问。一些华尔街分析师现在认为，随着竞争对手的业务与 Azure 一样多，该公司在云业务方面的领先地位正在减弱。还有消息称，微软支持的 OpenAI 预计将在 2023 年至 2028 年期间亏损 440 亿美元，然后在 2029 年实现盈利。由于微软预计今年将继续扩展其 AI 基础设施，因此这些努力可能需要一段时间才能获得回报。最后，美国经济环境有可能恶化，也会损害微软的增长前景。美国企业税率可能从 21% 上升至 28%，这可能会损害微软未来创造可观利润的能力。在 24 财年，微软为 1077.9 亿美元的税前收益支付了196.5 亿美元的所得税费用。这相当于有效税率为 18.23%。企业税率的上升肯定会损害微软的底线表现。随着挑战的增加，它们可能会限制微软的上升空间。微软的股价可能很难在短期内再次升值至今年夏天创下的历史最高水平。上述所有问题和挑战都让我们对微软目前的估值产生质疑。以下是我们的估值模型，该模型显示该公司估值过高，以当前价格建仓风险过大。对于该模型，我们使用了 21% 的税率，这是美国的企业税率。我们在微软每股 410.25 美元时建立了这个模型，并预测了该公司未来五年的表现。长期债务和现金数据取自最近的收益报告，而我们模型中的永久增长率为 3%，接近 GDP 增长率。我们模型中的折现率为 8.07%。我们通过计算微软当前的税后债务成本和股权成本来找到折现率。为了计算债务成本，我们使用了微软过去 12 个月的数据。为了计算股权成本，我们使用了4.4% 的无风险利率、1.17 的贝塔系数和7.69% 的市场回报率。尽管存在重大风险，预计微软的销售额和息税前利润仍将继续增长。这主要是因为预计该公司将保持生成式人工智能的势头，并继续利用正在进行的生成式人工智能革命，这要归功于它是人工智能工具和平台的早期采用者之一。目前的共识与我们的观点相似。所有其他假设都与微软的历史表现相似。通过填写预测表，能够计算出微软的 FCF 累计现值、终值、终值的现值和企业价值。在案例中，微软的企业价值为 2.39 万亿美元。然后，能够计算出微软的股权价值，即 2.42 万亿美元，并将其除以流通股数。这帮助我们找出了微软的内在价值，即每股 324.16 美元，比当前市场价格低约 20%。微软是一家很棒的公司，但以目前的价格来看，其股票并不是一项很好的投资。该公司估值过高，其市盈率和其他一些指标都高于该行业的中位数，这在当前环境下是一个坏信号。尽管预计该业务将继续受益于生成式人工智能革命，但各种风险使得分析师建议卖出微软的股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}