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山朗
11-22 11:19
1
山朗
2022-04-01
$游戏驿站(GME)$
加油
抱歉，原内容已删除
山朗
2018-10-24
$AMD(AMD)$庄家把价格拉下来准备大单买进吗？
山朗
2018-10-02
$阿玛琳(AMRN)$睡觉，美股真伤身体，心态极差，大晚上不能频繁交易，容易睡不着
山朗
2018-09-29
$网易(NTES)$止损220不会把我刷出去吧
山朗
2018-09-28
$03990(03990)$有介绍吗？
山朗
2018-09-28
$06111(06111)$有科普吗？
山朗
2018-09-26
$美团点评-W(03690)$挣400没卖，亏200卖了🌚🌝
山朗
2018-09-21
$美团点评-W(03690)$这横盘两天是在搞笑吧，不用看了，过两周再来，。。。？
山朗
2018-09-21
$美团点评-W(03690)$还有持有的吗？
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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11:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股科技股Q2投资展望！这些票被持续推荐","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165033782","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"近期美股市场逐步企稳，并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。展望二季度，虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续，但市场波幅料不断收窄，基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整，目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期，叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年，我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股。</blockquote><p>近期美股市场逐步企稳，并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。遵从估值、风险偏好、基本面的基础分析框架，当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期历史均值附近，结合当前美国10yr国债收益率水平、历史数据量化回溯等，我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对较小，预计不高于10%。</p><p>同时在企业云化、数字化中期趋势支撑下，预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健，其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性，软件SaaS内部结构分化明显，预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1，后续将逐季改善，同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。</p><p>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股，持续推荐：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p><p><b>市场回顾：风险偏好快速下行。</b></p><p>自去年11月中旬以来，伴随持续的高通胀，以及美联储紧缩预期的不断强化，美股市场开始进入调整阶段，而今年以来的俄乌冲突、全球原油价格的大幅上行等，亦使得美股市场的波动进一步放大。3月中旬以来，虽继续面临上述宏观因素的扰动，但美股市场逐步企稳回升，美股三大指数涨幅在4.7%~5.5%不等。今年以来的美股市场表现，基本都反映了一个共同的逻辑：市场风险偏好明显收敛环境下，美股市场对于业绩确定性高、低估值个股的相对偏好，以及对于个股业绩容错空间的极低容忍度。展望二季度，虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续，但市场波幅料不断收窄，基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。</p><p><b>估值水平：回到历史均值附近，中期预期计入亦相对充分。</b></p><p>当前标普信息技术板块、纳斯达克100指数的动态PE分别为25X、25X，基本处于过去5年期均值10%上方附近。分子板块看，费城半导体（SOX）指数动态PE为18X，位于历史均值附近，前期跌幅居前的软件板块，当前动态PS为8.6X，处于过去5年期均值（9.6X）10%下方。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整，目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。从美联储政策预期来看，利率期货市场目前已price in了美国年内8-9次（假定每次25基点）的加息预期（对应美联储基准利率2%~2.25%区间）。作为美国权益资产重要定价依据的美国10yr国债收益率，目前已经上行至2.4%附近，假定按照当前市场主流预期（年底上行至2.7%~2.8%水平），我们测算，后续加息&缩表，带来的美股科技板块年内估值收缩的幅度预计在10%以内，足以通过年内板块自身业绩增长进行消化。</p><p><b>基本面：整体分化明显，云计算最具确定性：</b></p><p><b>1）云计算：未来2~3年有望持续保持高增长。</b>收入&订单数据、盈利能力等核心指标均支持我们对北美云计算板块未来2~3年持续保持高景气度的判断。北美云计算厂商订单储备充足，且主要以大额、2~3年期订单为主，同时硬件设备生命周期拉长、软件产品（PaaS、SaaS）收入占比提升等，亦将持续支撑云厂商盈利能力持续改善。</p><p><b>2）软件SaaS：整体需求维持稳健，内部结构分化明显。</b>行业整体需求依旧较为强劲，但企业间业绩分化明显，我们建议关注：①行业高景气方向，cloud 2.0带来的基础软件市场长周期系统性投资机会，子板块包括数据管理、信息安全、系统运维&管理、软件开发等；②业绩触底反转，疫情后企业客户预算恢复，同时产品销售、线下交付逐步回归正轨的软件厂商；③超跌后估值修复，主要集中于前期超跌的部分疫情受益个股。</p><p><b>3）互联网：预计Q1为全年低点，Q2开始料将逐季度改善</b>。伴随供应链持续改善，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>为代表的电商业务预计将在二季度开始反转，资本开支的降速亦有望提升亚马逊电商业务的利润率。广告市场，伴随消费以及线下经济的好转，电商、旅游出行等行业广告料将持续受益，但在行业竞争层面，仍需要关注TikTok、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>YouTube Shorts以及Instagram Reels等在短视频领域的争夺。</p><p><b>4）硬件：数据中心为全年主要亮点，关注消费电子走弱风险</b>。目前欧美云计算市场仍持续保持高景气度，并相应推动云厂商不断加大资本开支力度，预计北美四大云厂商全年数据中心开支增长超20%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、$AMD(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>)$最新一代服务器芯片亦有望在Q3开始大规模出货，数据中心硬件市场下半年表现料显著好于上半年。受欧美持续高通胀，叠加疫情后线上活动的降温、手机产品创新匮乏等影响，我们预计上半年全球安卓手机表现持续偏弱，同时PC市场亦有望较去年出现相应下行，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机有望持续保持良好表现，但整体仍需要持续观察&跟进。</p><p><b>5）半导体：继续看好数据中心、汽车电子等相关领域。</b>考虑到智能手机、PC需求持续走弱，新增先进产能在今年Q2~Q3之间陆续开出，我们需警惕相关领域半导体供需反转风险。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期，叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年，我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。伴随全球新能源汽车产业的快速增长，疫情后整车厂商、tier1厂商半导体库存策略的调整，我们预计全球汽车半导体市场供需偏紧的状态将持续到2022H2-2023H1，继续看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>两个季度全球汽车半导体市场的表现。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b></p><p>俄乌冲突持续导致全球原油、大宗商品价格持续上行风险；持续高通胀导致美联储流动性收紧超预期风险；美国中期选举风险；美国经济陷入衰退风险；欧洲、北美反垄断及数据监管政策持续趋严的风险；中期个人用户消费不足、企业IT支出下滑超预期风险；国际贸易冲突持续加剧风险等。</p><p><b>投资策略：</b></p><p>当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期均值附近，我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对可控。同时在企业云化、数字化核心趋势支撑下，预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健，其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性，软件SaaS内部结构分化明显，预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1，后续将逐季改善，同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股，持续推荐：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、高通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股科技股Q2投资展望！这些票被持续推荐\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1010577552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中信证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-01 11:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股。</blockquote><p>近期美股市场逐步企稳，并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。遵从估值、风险偏好、基本面的基础分析框架，当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期历史均值附近，结合当前美国10yr国债收益率水平、历史数据量化回溯等，我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对较小，预计不高于10%。</p><p>同时在企业云化、数字化中期趋势支撑下，预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健，其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性，软件SaaS内部结构分化明显，预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1，后续将逐季改善，同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。</p><p>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股，持续推荐：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p><p><b>市场回顾：风险偏好快速下行。</b></p><p>自去年11月中旬以来，伴随持续的高通胀，以及美联储紧缩预期的不断强化，美股市场开始进入调整阶段，而今年以来的俄乌冲突、全球原油价格的大幅上行等，亦使得美股市场的波动进一步放大。3月中旬以来，虽继续面临上述宏观因素的扰动，但美股市场逐步企稳回升，美股三大指数涨幅在4.7%~5.5%不等。今年以来的美股市场表现，基本都反映了一个共同的逻辑：市场风险偏好明显收敛环境下，美股市场对于业绩确定性高、低估值个股的相对偏好，以及对于个股业绩容错空间的极低容忍度。展望二季度，虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续，但市场波幅料不断收窄，基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。</p><p><b>估值水平：回到历史均值附近，中期预期计入亦相对充分。</b></p><p>当前标普信息技术板块、纳斯达克100指数的动态PE分别为25X、25X，基本处于过去5年期均值10%上方附近。分子板块看，费城半导体（SOX）指数动态PE为18X，位于历史均值附近，前期跌幅居前的软件板块，当前动态PS为8.6X，处于过去5年期均值（9.6X）10%下方。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整，目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。从美联储政策预期来看，利率期货市场目前已price in了美国年内8-9次（假定每次25基点）的加息预期（对应美联储基准利率2%~2.25%区间）。作为美国权益资产重要定价依据的美国10yr国债收益率，目前已经上行至2.4%附近，假定按照当前市场主流预期（年底上行至2.7%~2.8%水平），我们测算，后续加息&缩表，带来的美股科技板块年内估值收缩的幅度预计在10%以内，足以通过年内板块自身业绩增长进行消化。</p><p><b>基本面：整体分化明显，云计算最具确定性：</b></p><p><b>1）云计算：未来2~3年有望持续保持高增长。</b>收入&订单数据、盈利能力等核心指标均支持我们对北美云计算板块未来2~3年持续保持高景气度的判断。北美云计算厂商订单储备充足，且主要以大额、2~3年期订单为主，同时硬件设备生命周期拉长、软件产品（PaaS、SaaS）收入占比提升等，亦将持续支撑云厂商盈利能力持续改善。</p><p><b>2）软件SaaS：整体需求维持稳健，内部结构分化明显。</b>行业整体需求依旧较为强劲，但企业间业绩分化明显，我们建议关注：①行业高景气方向，cloud 2.0带来的基础软件市场长周期系统性投资机会，子板块包括数据管理、信息安全、系统运维&管理、软件开发等；②业绩触底反转，疫情后企业客户预算恢复，同时产品销售、线下交付逐步回归正轨的软件厂商；③超跌后估值修复，主要集中于前期超跌的部分疫情受益个股。</p><p><b>3）互联网：预计Q1为全年低点，Q2开始料将逐季度改善</b>。伴随供应链持续改善，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>为代表的电商业务预计将在二季度开始反转，资本开支的降速亦有望提升亚马逊电商业务的利润率。广告市场，伴随消费以及线下经济的好转，电商、旅游出行等行业广告料将持续受益，但在行业竞争层面，仍需要关注TikTok、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>YouTube Shorts以及Instagram Reels等在短视频领域的争夺。</p><p><b>4）硬件：数据中心为全年主要亮点，关注消费电子走弱风险</b>。目前欧美云计算市场仍持续保持高景气度，并相应推动云厂商不断加大资本开支力度，预计北美四大云厂商全年数据中心开支增长超20%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、$AMD(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>)$最新一代服务器芯片亦有望在Q3开始大规模出货，数据中心硬件市场下半年表现料显著好于上半年。受欧美持续高通胀，叠加疫情后线上活动的降温、手机产品创新匮乏等影响，我们预计上半年全球安卓手机表现持续偏弱，同时PC市场亦有望较去年出现相应下行，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机有望持续保持良好表现，但整体仍需要持续观察&跟进。</p><p><b>5）半导体：继续看好数据中心、汽车电子等相关领域。</b>考虑到智能手机、PC需求持续走弱，新增先进产能在今年Q2~Q3之间陆续开出，我们需警惕相关领域半导体供需反转风险。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期，叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年，我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。伴随全球新能源汽车产业的快速增长，疫情后整车厂商、tier1厂商半导体库存策略的调整，我们预计全球汽车半导体市场供需偏紧的状态将持续到2022H2-2023H1，继续看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>两个季度全球汽车半导体市场的表现。</p><p><b>风险因素：</b></p><p>俄乌冲突持续导致全球原油、大宗商品价格持续上行风险；持续高通胀导致美联储流动性收紧超预期风险；美国中期选举风险；美国经济陷入衰退风险；欧洲、北美反垄断及数据监管政策持续趋严的风险；中期个人用户消费不足、企业IT支出下滑超预期风险；国际贸易冲突持续加剧风险等。</p><p><b>投资策略：</b></p><p>当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期均值附近，我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对可控。同时在企业云化、数字化核心趋势支撑下，预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健，其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性，软件SaaS内部结构分化明显，预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1，后续将逐季改善，同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股，持续推荐：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、高通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fc2c33800eae6e4f0bbec10e83a1a5","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊","MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165033782","content_text":"考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股。近期美股市场逐步企稳，并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。遵从估值、风险偏好、基本面的基础分析框架，当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期历史均值附近，结合当前美国10yr国债收益率水平、历史数据量化回溯等，我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对较小，预计不高于10%。同时在企业云化、数字化中期趋势支撑下，预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健，其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性，软件SaaS内部结构分化明显，预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1，后续将逐季改善，同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股，持续推荐：微软、亚马逊、英伟达、高通、Salesforce、Service Now、Workday、Snowflake、美光等。市场回顾：风险偏好快速下行。自去年11月中旬以来，伴随持续的高通胀，以及美联储紧缩预期的不断强化，美股市场开始进入调整阶段，而今年以来的俄乌冲突、全球原油价格的大幅上行等，亦使得美股市场的波动进一步放大。3月中旬以来，虽继续面临上述宏观因素的扰动，但美股市场逐步企稳回升，美股三大指数涨幅在4.7%~5.5%不等。今年以来的美股市场表现，基本都反映了一个共同的逻辑：市场风险偏好明显收敛环境下，美股市场对于业绩确定性高、低估值个股的相对偏好，以及对于个股业绩容错空间的极低容忍度。展望二季度，虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续，但市场波幅料不断收窄，基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。估值水平：回到历史均值附近，中期预期计入亦相对充分。当前标普信息技术板块、纳斯达克100指数的动态PE分别为25X、25X，基本处于过去5年期均值10%上方附近。分子板块看，费城半导体（SOX）指数动态PE为18X，位于历史均值附近，前期跌幅居前的软件板块，当前动态PS为8.6X，处于过去5年期均值（9.6X）10%下方。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整，目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。从美联储政策预期来看，利率期货市场目前已price in了美国年内8-9次（假定每次25基点）的加息预期（对应美联储基准利率2%~2.25%区间）。作为美国权益资产重要定价依据的美国10yr国债收益率，目前已经上行至2.4%附近，假定按照当前市场主流预期（年底上行至2.7%~2.8%水平），我们测算，后续加息&缩表，带来的美股科技板块年内估值收缩的幅度预计在10%以内，足以通过年内板块自身业绩增长进行消化。基本面：整体分化明显，云计算最具确定性：1）云计算：未来2~3年有望持续保持高增长。收入&订单数据、盈利能力等核心指标均支持我们对北美云计算板块未来2~3年持续保持高景气度的判断。北美云计算厂商订单储备充足，且主要以大额、2~3年期订单为主，同时硬件设备生命周期拉长、软件产品（PaaS、SaaS）收入占比提升等，亦将持续支撑云厂商盈利能力持续改善。2）软件SaaS：整体需求维持稳健，内部结构分化明显。行业整体需求依旧较为强劲，但企业间业绩分化明显，我们建议关注：①行业高景气方向，cloud 2.0带来的基础软件市场长周期系统性投资机会，子板块包括数据管理、信息安全、系统运维&管理、软件开发等；②业绩触底反转，疫情后企业客户预算恢复，同时产品销售、线下交付逐步回归正轨的软件厂商；③超跌后估值修复，主要集中于前期超跌的部分疫情受益个股。3）互联网：预计Q1为全年低点，Q2开始料将逐季度改善。伴随供应链持续改善，以亚马逊为代表的电商业务预计将在二季度开始反转，资本开支的降速亦有望提升亚马逊电商业务的利润率。广告市场，伴随消费以及线下经济的好转，电商、旅游出行等行业广告料将持续受益，但在行业竞争层面，仍需要关注TikTok、谷歌YouTube Shorts以及Instagram Reels等在短视频领域的争夺。4）硬件：数据中心为全年主要亮点，关注消费电子走弱风险。目前欧美云计算市场仍持续保持高景气度，并相应推动云厂商不断加大资本开支力度，预计北美四大云厂商全年数据中心开支增长超20%，英特尔、$AMD(AMD)$最新一代服务器芯片亦有望在Q3开始大规模出货，数据中心硬件市场下半年表现料显著好于上半年。受欧美持续高通胀，叠加疫情后线上活动的降温、手机产品创新匮乏等影响，我们预计上半年全球安卓手机表现持续偏弱，同时PC市场亦有望较去年出现相应下行，苹果手机有望持续保持良好表现，但整体仍需要持续观察&跟进。5）半导体：继续看好数据中心、汽车电子等相关领域。考虑到智能手机、PC需求持续走弱，新增先进产能在今年Q2~Q3之间陆续开出，我们需警惕相关领域半导体供需反转风险。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期，叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年，我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。伴随全球新能源汽车产业的快速增长，疫情后整车厂商、tier1厂商半导体库存策略的调整，我们预计全球汽车半导体市场供需偏紧的状态将持续到2022H2-2023H1，继续看好未来两个季度全球汽车半导体市场的表现。风险因素：俄乌冲突持续导致全球原油、大宗商品价格持续上行风险；持续高通胀导致美联储流动性收紧超预期风险；美国中期选举风险；美国经济陷入衰退风险；欧洲、北美反垄断及数据监管政策持续趋严的风险；中期个人用户消费不足、企业IT支出下滑超预期风险；国际贸易冲突持续加剧风险等。投资策略：当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期均值附近，我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对可控。同时在企业云化、数字化核心趋势支撑下，预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健，其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性，软件SaaS内部结构分化明显，预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1，后续将逐季改善，同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动，美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升，板块性机会预计相对稀缺，建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性，自下而上精选个股，持续推荐：微软、亚马逊、英伟达、高通、Salesforce、Service 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