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山朗
2022-04-01
$游戏驿站(GME)$
加油
抱歉,原内容已删除
山朗
2018-10-24
$AMD(AMD)$庄家把价格拉下来准备大单买进吗?
山朗
2018-10-02
$阿玛琳(AMRN)$睡觉,美股真伤身体,心态极差,大晚上不能频繁交易,容易睡不着
山朗
2018-09-29
$网易(NTES)$止损220不会把我刷出去吧
山朗
2018-09-28
$03990(03990)$有介绍吗?
山朗
2018-09-28
$06111(06111)$有科普吗?
山朗
2018-09-26
$美团点评-W(03690)$挣400没卖,亏200卖了🌚🌝
山朗
2018-09-21
$美团点评-W(03690)$这横盘两天是在搞笑吧,不用看了,过两周再来,。。。?
山朗
2018-09-21
$美团点评-W(03690)$还有持有的吗?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>加油","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>加油","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610765233","repostId":"1165033782","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165033782","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"“一号在手,投资无忧!”此微信公众号为中信证券研究报告权威发布平台,力求信息及时、准确,是您投资好帮手!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中信证券研究","id":"1010577552","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b"},"pubTimestamp":1648784281,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165033782?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-01 11:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股科技股Q2投资展望!这些票被持续推荐","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165033782","media":"中信证券研究","summary":"近期美股市场逐步企稳,并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。展望二季度,虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续,但市场波幅料不断收窄,基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整,目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期,叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年,我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股。</blockquote><p>近期美股市场逐步企稳,并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。遵从估值、风险偏好、基本面的基础分析框架,当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期历史均值附近,结合当前美国10yr国债收益率水平、历史数据量化回溯等,我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对较小,预计不高于10%。</p><p>同时在企业云化、数字化中期趋势支撑下,预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健,其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性,软件SaaS内部结构分化明显,预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1,后续将逐季改善,同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。</p><p>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股,持续推荐:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p><p><b>市场回顾:风险偏好快速下行。</b></p><p>自去年11月中旬以来,伴随持续的高通胀,以及美联储紧缩预期的不断强化,美股市场开始进入调整阶段,而今年以来的俄乌冲突、全球原油价格的大幅上行等,亦使得美股市场的波动进一步放大。3月中旬以来,虽继续面临上述宏观因素的扰动,但美股市场逐步企稳回升,美股三大指数涨幅在4.7%~5.5%不等。今年以来的美股市场表现,基本都反映了一个共同的逻辑:市场风险偏好明显收敛环境下,美股市场对于业绩确定性高、低估值个股的相对偏好,以及对于个股业绩容错空间的极低容忍度。展望二季度,虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续,但市场波幅料不断收窄,基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。</p><p><b>估值水平:回到历史均值附近,中期预期计入亦相对充分。</b></p><p>当前标普信息技术板块、纳斯达克100指数的动态PE分别为25X、25X,基本处于过去5年期均值10%上方附近。分子板块看,费城半导体(SOX)指数动态PE为18X,位于历史均值附近,前期跌幅居前的软件板块,当前动态PS为8.6X,处于过去5年期均值(9.6X)10%下方。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整,目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。从美联储政策预期来看,利率期货市场目前已price in了美国年内8-9次(假定每次25基点)的加息预期(对应美联储基准利率2%~2.25%区间)。作为美国权益资产重要定价依据的美国10yr国债收益率,目前已经上行至2.4%附近,假定按照当前市场主流预期(年底上行至2.7%~2.8%水平),我们测算,后续加息&缩表,带来的美股科技板块年内估值收缩的幅度预计在10%以内,足以通过年内板块自身业绩增长进行消化。</p><p><b>基本面:整体分化明显,云计算最具确定性:</b></p><p><b>1)云计算:未来2~3年有望持续保持高增长。</b>收入&订单数据、盈利能力等核心指标均支持我们对北美云计算板块未来2~3年持续保持高景气度的判断。北美云计算厂商订单储备充足,且主要以大额、2~3年期订单为主,同时硬件设备生命周期拉长、软件产品(PaaS、SaaS)收入占比提升等,亦将持续支撑云厂商盈利能力持续改善。</p><p><b>2)软件SaaS:整体需求维持稳健,内部结构分化明显。</b>行业整体需求依旧较为强劲,但企业间业绩分化明显,我们建议关注:①行业高景气方向,cloud 2.0带来的基础软件市场长周期系统性投资机会,子板块包括数据管理、信息安全、系统运维&管理、软件开发等;②业绩触底反转,疫情后企业客户预算恢复,同时产品销售、线下交付逐步回归正轨的软件厂商;③超跌后估值修复,主要集中于前期超跌的部分疫情受益个股。</p><p><b>3)互联网:预计Q1为全年低点,Q2开始料将逐季度改善</b>。伴随供应链持续改善,以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>为代表的电商业务预计将在二季度开始反转,资本开支的降速亦有望提升亚马逊电商业务的利润率。广告市场,伴随消费以及线下经济的好转,电商、旅游出行等行业广告料将持续受益,但在行业竞争层面,仍需要关注TikTok、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>YouTube Shorts以及Instagram Reels等在短视频领域的争夺。</p><p><b>4)硬件:数据中心为全年主要亮点,关注消费电子走弱风险</b>。目前欧美云计算市场仍持续保持高景气度,并相应推动云厂商不断加大资本开支力度,预计北美四大云厂商全年数据中心开支增长超20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、$AMD(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>)$最新一代服务器芯片亦有望在Q3开始大规模出货,数据中心硬件市场下半年表现料显著好于上半年。受欧美持续高通胀,叠加疫情后线上活动的降温、手机产品创新匮乏等影响,我们预计上半年全球安卓手机表现持续偏弱,同时PC市场亦有望较去年出现相应下行,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机有望持续保持良好表现,但整体仍需要持续观察&跟进。</p><p><b>5)半导体:继续看好数据中心、汽车电子等相关领域。</b>考虑到智能手机、PC需求持续走弱,新增先进产能在今年Q2~Q3之间陆续开出,我们需警惕相关领域半导体供需反转风险。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期,叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年,我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。伴随全球新能源汽车产业的快速增长,疫情后整车厂商、tier1厂商半导体库存策略的调整,我们预计全球汽车半导体市场供需偏紧的状态将持续到2022H2-2023H1,继续看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>两个季度全球汽车半导体市场的表现。</p><p><b>风险因素:</b></p><p>俄乌冲突持续导致全球原油、大宗商品价格持续上行风险;持续高通胀导致美联储流动性收紧超预期风险;美国中期选举风险;美国经济陷入衰退风险;欧洲、北美反垄断及数据监管政策持续趋严的风险;中期个人用户消费不足、企业IT支出下滑超预期风险;国际贸易冲突持续加剧风险等。</p><p><b>投资策略:</b></p><p>当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期均值附近,我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对可控。同时在企业云化、数字化核心趋势支撑下,预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健,其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性,软件SaaS内部结构分化明显,预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1,后续将逐季改善,同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股,持续推荐:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、高通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股科技股Q2投资展望!这些票被持续推荐</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股科技股Q2投资展望!这些票被持续推荐\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1010577552\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa20565b6019f08c46a1722e89f3141b);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中信证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-01 11:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股。</blockquote><p>近期美股市场逐步企稳,并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。遵从估值、风险偏好、基本面的基础分析框架,当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期历史均值附近,结合当前美国10yr国债收益率水平、历史数据量化回溯等,我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对较小,预计不高于10%。</p><p>同时在企业云化、数字化中期趋势支撑下,预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健,其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性,软件SaaS内部结构分化明显,预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1,后续将逐季改善,同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。</p><p>考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股,持续推荐:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p><p><b>市场回顾:风险偏好快速下行。</b></p><p>自去年11月中旬以来,伴随持续的高通胀,以及美联储紧缩预期的不断强化,美股市场开始进入调整阶段,而今年以来的俄乌冲突、全球原油价格的大幅上行等,亦使得美股市场的波动进一步放大。3月中旬以来,虽继续面临上述宏观因素的扰动,但美股市场逐步企稳回升,美股三大指数涨幅在4.7%~5.5%不等。今年以来的美股市场表现,基本都反映了一个共同的逻辑:市场风险偏好明显收敛环境下,美股市场对于业绩确定性高、低估值个股的相对偏好,以及对于个股业绩容错空间的极低容忍度。展望二季度,虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续,但市场波幅料不断收窄,基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。</p><p><b>估值水平:回到历史均值附近,中期预期计入亦相对充分。</b></p><p>当前标普信息技术板块、纳斯达克100指数的动态PE分别为25X、25X,基本处于过去5年期均值10%上方附近。分子板块看,费城半导体(SOX)指数动态PE为18X,位于历史均值附近,前期跌幅居前的软件板块,当前动态PS为8.6X,处于过去5年期均值(9.6X)10%下方。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整,目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。从美联储政策预期来看,利率期货市场目前已price in了美国年内8-9次(假定每次25基点)的加息预期(对应美联储基准利率2%~2.25%区间)。作为美国权益资产重要定价依据的美国10yr国债收益率,目前已经上行至2.4%附近,假定按照当前市场主流预期(年底上行至2.7%~2.8%水平),我们测算,后续加息&缩表,带来的美股科技板块年内估值收缩的幅度预计在10%以内,足以通过年内板块自身业绩增长进行消化。</p><p><b>基本面:整体分化明显,云计算最具确定性:</b></p><p><b>1)云计算:未来2~3年有望持续保持高增长。</b>收入&订单数据、盈利能力等核心指标均支持我们对北美云计算板块未来2~3年持续保持高景气度的判断。北美云计算厂商订单储备充足,且主要以大额、2~3年期订单为主,同时硬件设备生命周期拉长、软件产品(PaaS、SaaS)收入占比提升等,亦将持续支撑云厂商盈利能力持续改善。</p><p><b>2)软件SaaS:整体需求维持稳健,内部结构分化明显。</b>行业整体需求依旧较为强劲,但企业间业绩分化明显,我们建议关注:①行业高景气方向,cloud 2.0带来的基础软件市场长周期系统性投资机会,子板块包括数据管理、信息安全、系统运维&管理、软件开发等;②业绩触底反转,疫情后企业客户预算恢复,同时产品销售、线下交付逐步回归正轨的软件厂商;③超跌后估值修复,主要集中于前期超跌的部分疫情受益个股。</p><p><b>3)互联网:预计Q1为全年低点,Q2开始料将逐季度改善</b>。伴随供应链持续改善,以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>为代表的电商业务预计将在二季度开始反转,资本开支的降速亦有望提升亚马逊电商业务的利润率。广告市场,伴随消费以及线下经济的好转,电商、旅游出行等行业广告料将持续受益,但在行业竞争层面,仍需要关注TikTok、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>YouTube Shorts以及Instagram Reels等在短视频领域的争夺。</p><p><b>4)硬件:数据中心为全年主要亮点,关注消费电子走弱风险</b>。目前欧美云计算市场仍持续保持高景气度,并相应推动云厂商不断加大资本开支力度,预计北美四大云厂商全年数据中心开支增长超20%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、$AMD(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>)$最新一代服务器芯片亦有望在Q3开始大规模出货,数据中心硬件市场下半年表现料显著好于上半年。受欧美持续高通胀,叠加疫情后线上活动的降温、手机产品创新匮乏等影响,我们预计上半年全球安卓手机表现持续偏弱,同时PC市场亦有望较去年出现相应下行,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机有望持续保持良好表现,但整体仍需要持续观察&跟进。</p><p><b>5)半导体:继续看好数据中心、汽车电子等相关领域。</b>考虑到智能手机、PC需求持续走弱,新增先进产能在今年Q2~Q3之间陆续开出,我们需警惕相关领域半导体供需反转风险。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期,叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年,我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。伴随全球新能源汽车产业的快速增长,疫情后整车厂商、tier1厂商半导体库存策略的调整,我们预计全球汽车半导体市场供需偏紧的状态将持续到2022H2-2023H1,继续看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>两个季度全球汽车半导体市场的表现。</p><p><b>风险因素:</b></p><p>俄乌冲突持续导致全球原油、大宗商品价格持续上行风险;持续高通胀导致美联储流动性收紧超预期风险;美国中期选举风险;美国经济陷入衰退风险;欧洲、北美反垄断及数据监管政策持续趋严的风险;中期个人用户消费不足、企业IT支出下滑超预期风险;国际贸易冲突持续加剧风险等。</p><p><b>投资策略:</b></p><p>当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期均值附近,我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对可控。同时在企业云化、数字化核心趋势支撑下,预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健,其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性,软件SaaS内部结构分化明显,预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1,后续将逐季改善,同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股,持续推荐:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、高通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>、Service Now、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDAY\">Workday</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、美光等。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44fc2c33800eae6e4f0bbec10e83a1a5","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","MU":"美光科技","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165033782","content_text":"考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股。近期美股市场逐步企稳,并较大程度消化俄乌冲突带来的短期市场恐慌。遵从估值、风险偏好、基本面的基础分析框架,当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期历史均值附近,结合当前美国10yr国债收益率水平、历史数据量化回溯等,我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对较小,预计不高于10%。同时在企业云化、数字化中期趋势支撑下,预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健,其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性,软件SaaS内部结构分化明显,预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1,后续将逐季改善,同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股,持续推荐:微软、亚马逊、英伟达、高通、Salesforce、Service Now、Workday、Snowflake、美光等。市场回顾:风险偏好快速下行。自去年11月中旬以来,伴随持续的高通胀,以及美联储紧缩预期的不断强化,美股市场开始进入调整阶段,而今年以来的俄乌冲突、全球原油价格的大幅上行等,亦使得美股市场的波动进一步放大。3月中旬以来,虽继续面临上述宏观因素的扰动,但美股市场逐步企稳回升,美股三大指数涨幅在4.7%~5.5%不等。今年以来的美股市场表现,基本都反映了一个共同的逻辑:市场风险偏好明显收敛环境下,美股市场对于业绩确定性高、低估值个股的相对偏好,以及对于个股业绩容错空间的极低容忍度。展望二季度,虽外部宏观因素的扰动料将持续,但市场波幅料不断收窄,基本面亦将逐步成为后续股价走势的主要影响变量。估值水平:回到历史均值附近,中期预期计入亦相对充分。当前标普信息技术板块、纳斯达克100指数的动态PE分别为25X、25X,基本处于过去5年期均值10%上方附近。分子板块看,费城半导体(SOX)指数动态PE为18X,位于历史均值附近,前期跌幅居前的软件板块,当前动态PS为8.6X,处于过去5年期均值(9.6X)10%下方。经历了过去四个月以来的持续调整,目前美股科技板块整体估值基本回到了相对合理的位置。从美联储政策预期来看,利率期货市场目前已price in了美国年内8-9次(假定每次25基点)的加息预期(对应美联储基准利率2%~2.25%区间)。作为美国权益资产重要定价依据的美国10yr国债收益率,目前已经上行至2.4%附近,假定按照当前市场主流预期(年底上行至2.7%~2.8%水平),我们测算,后续加息&缩表,带来的美股科技板块年内估值收缩的幅度预计在10%以内,足以通过年内板块自身业绩增长进行消化。基本面:整体分化明显,云计算最具确定性:1)云计算:未来2~3年有望持续保持高增长。收入&订单数据、盈利能力等核心指标均支持我们对北美云计算板块未来2~3年持续保持高景气度的判断。北美云计算厂商订单储备充足,且主要以大额、2~3年期订单为主,同时硬件设备生命周期拉长、软件产品(PaaS、SaaS)收入占比提升等,亦将持续支撑云厂商盈利能力持续改善。2)软件SaaS:整体需求维持稳健,内部结构分化明显。行业整体需求依旧较为强劲,但企业间业绩分化明显,我们建议关注:①行业高景气方向,cloud 2.0带来的基础软件市场长周期系统性投资机会,子板块包括数据管理、信息安全、系统运维&管理、软件开发等;②业绩触底反转,疫情后企业客户预算恢复,同时产品销售、线下交付逐步回归正轨的软件厂商;③超跌后估值修复,主要集中于前期超跌的部分疫情受益个股。3)互联网:预计Q1为全年低点,Q2开始料将逐季度改善。伴随供应链持续改善,以亚马逊为代表的电商业务预计将在二季度开始反转,资本开支的降速亦有望提升亚马逊电商业务的利润率。广告市场,伴随消费以及线下经济的好转,电商、旅游出行等行业广告料将持续受益,但在行业竞争层面,仍需要关注TikTok、谷歌YouTube Shorts以及Instagram Reels等在短视频领域的争夺。4)硬件:数据中心为全年主要亮点,关注消费电子走弱风险。目前欧美云计算市场仍持续保持高景气度,并相应推动云厂商不断加大资本开支力度,预计北美四大云厂商全年数据中心开支增长超20%,英特尔、$AMD(AMD)$最新一代服务器芯片亦有望在Q3开始大规模出货,数据中心硬件市场下半年表现料显著好于上半年。受欧美持续高通胀,叠加疫情后线上活动的降温、手机产品创新匮乏等影响,我们预计上半年全球安卓手机表现持续偏弱,同时PC市场亦有望较去年出现相应下行,苹果手机有望持续保持良好表现,但整体仍需要持续观察&跟进。5)半导体:继续看好数据中心、汽车电子等相关领域。考虑到智能手机、PC需求持续走弱,新增先进产能在今年Q2~Q3之间陆续开出,我们需警惕相关领域半导体供需反转风险。当前北美云厂商资本开支继续处于上行周期,叠加去年部分需求延迟到今年,我们持续看好全年服务器市场表现。伴随全球新能源汽车产业的快速增长,疫情后整车厂商、tier1厂商半导体库存策略的调整,我们预计全球汽车半导体市场供需偏紧的状态将持续到2022H2-2023H1,继续看好未来两个季度全球汽车半导体市场的表现。风险因素:俄乌冲突持续导致全球原油、大宗商品价格持续上行风险;持续高通胀导致美联储流动性收紧超预期风险;美国中期选举风险;美国经济陷入衰退风险;欧洲、北美反垄断及数据监管政策持续趋严的风险;中期个人用户消费不足、企业IT支出下滑超预期风险;国际贸易冲突持续加剧风险等。投资策略:当前美股科技板块整体估值已回到过去5年期均值附近,我们估算利率进一步上行&QT对全年美股科技股估值收缩压力相对可控。同时在企业云化、数字化核心趋势支撑下,预计美股科技板块整体基本面依然维持稳健,其中云计算、数据中心硬件、汽车半导体等最具确定性,软件SaaS内部结构分化明显,预计互联网业绩低点大概率出现在Q1,后续将逐季改善,同时需警惕消费电子等需求走弱对相关产业链的传导风险。考虑到诸多宏观因素的持续扰动,美股市场全年风险偏好易降难升,板块性机会预计相对稀缺,建议继续结合业绩确定性、估值合理性,自下而上精选个股,持续推荐:微软、亚马逊、英伟达、高通、Salesforce、Service Now、Workday、Snowflake、美光等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":284452,"gmtCreate":1538155310682,"gmtModify":1704775609207,"author":{"id":"3497450070627957","authorId":"3497450070627957","name":"山朗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$网易(NTES)$止损220不会把我刷出去吧","listText":"$网易(NTES)$止损220不会把我刷出去吧","text":"$网易(NTES)$止损220不会把我刷出去吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284452","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}