绿叶菜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

绿叶菜

绿叶菜

本金3万美金

IP属地：中国香港

36关注

2粉丝

2主题

0勋章

06-03

$英特尔(INTC)$ 都去买英伟达了，其他股票只能被抛售

2021-02-24

$台积电(TSM)$新闻不能相信，从股价来看芯片不短缺，可能还挺过剩的。

2021-02-13

$流利说(LAIX)$会不会是下一个十倍股？

2021-01-11

造车新闻目的已经达成，可以找接盘侠了。

百度宣布造车！股价一个月已疯涨67％

2020-12-28

能够投资跟谁学是投资者的服气。我80元的成本应该可以解套了。

跟谁学陈向东：8.7亿美元定增融资已全部到位

2020-10-22

$蔚来(NIO)$我准备买蔚来了，大家准备跌吧。一般我一买就跌，但从15元看到现在，实在忍不住要买了。

2020-08-26

$蔚来(NIO)$真给力，上20毫无悬念

2020-07-28

$蔚来(NIO)$只要回到16元，然后我就下车

2020-07-27

$蔚来(NIO)$评论区抢手太多，因此还得往3元去。大涨前都没有那么多人说蔚来好的。

2020-06-18

$爱奇艺(IQ)$这A站要了我老命了，赶紧现原形吧！

2020-06-03

看标题，作者做空仓位已经爆仓

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-28

那么作者对下月是什么判断呢？

为什么美股走势和美国经济基本面出现了脱钩？

2020-05-22

农产品包括好吃的水果吗？

拼多多第一季度营收65.41亿元百亿补贴仍会持续

2020-05-21

EBITDA的计算中净利润是怎么算的？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-29

$波音(BA)$ 我只能说只有我买了put才能拯救巨亏

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68a814138696b6daf296c3939a776531","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101111534037b547a40&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2102998784","content_text":"今日早间，百度公司、吉利控股双双发公告，官宣组建一家智能汽车公司。据悉，以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业。吉利控股集团将成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。新组建的百度汽车公司将面向乘用车市场，让用户购买到更极致的智能电动汽车。百度汽车公司将着眼于智能汽车的设计研发、生产制造、销售服务全产业链，传承百度强大的人工智能、互联网科技基因，利用Apollo领先的自动驾驶能力，发挥在汽车智能化领域长达8年的经验优势，重塑智能汽车产品形态，成为智能出行时代的变革者。期待百度汽车的最终亮相！(7604744)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333945883,"gmtCreate":1609168012842,"gmtModify":1703737977418,"author":{"id":"3494732093438793","authorId":"3494732093438793","name":"绿叶菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9d22db7adaf5ae0039e3db0d04d5c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494732093438793","idStr":"3494732093438793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能够投资跟谁学是投资者的服气。我80元的成本应该可以解套了。","listText":"能够投资跟谁学是投资者的服气。我80元的成本应该可以解套了。","text":"能够投资跟谁学是投资者的服气。我80元的成本应该可以解套了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333945883","repostId":"1131692167","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131692167","pubTimestamp":1609153341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131692167?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-28 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>评论区抢手太多，因此还得往3元去。大涨前都没有那么多人说蔚来好的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>评论区抢手太多，因此还得往3元去。大涨前都没有那么多人说蔚来好的。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$评论区抢手太多，因此还得往3元去。大涨前都没有那么多人说蔚来好的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946260594","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955571169,"gmtCreate":1592489054251,"gmtModify":1704199504241,"author":{"id":"3494732093438793","authorId":"3494732093438793","name":"绿叶菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9d22db7adaf5ae0039e3db0d04d5c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494732093438793","idStr":"3494732093438793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>这A站要了我老命了，赶紧现原形吧！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a>这A站要了我老命了，赶紧现原形吧！","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$这A站要了我老命了，赶紧现原形吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955571169","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958365864,"gmtCreate":1591176027758,"gmtModify":1704194646478,"author":{"id":"3494732093438793","authorId":"3494732093438793","name":"绿叶菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9d22db7adaf5ae0039e3db0d04d5c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494732093438793","idStr":"3494732093438793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看标题，作者做空仓位已经爆仓","listText":"看标题，作者做空仓位已经爆仓","text":"看标题，作者做空仓位已经爆仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958365864","repostId":"2040432791","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951186717,"gmtCreate":1590679406939,"gmtModify":1704193412611,"author":{"id":"3494732093438793","authorId":"3494732093438793","name":"绿叶菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9d22db7adaf5ae0039e3db0d04d5c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494732093438793","idStr":"3494732093438793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那么作者对下月是什么判断呢？","listText":"那么作者对下月是什么判断呢？","text":"那么作者对下月是什么判断呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951186717","repostId":"2038266621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2038266621","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1590664320,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2038266621?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-28 19:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为什么美股走势和美国经济基本面出现了脱钩？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2038266621","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"点击蓝字订阅英为财情公众号发送股票、股指、国债关键词，获取实时行情美联储周四凌晨公布的经济褐皮书没有太多的悬念——美国经济仍然堪忧，病毒危机带来的“社交疏离”让美国经济在3-5月期间遭遇了严重的下滑，","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>点击蓝字订阅英为财情公众号</p><p>发送股票、股指、国债关键词，获取实时行情</p><p><span>美联储周四凌晨公布的</span><span>经济褐皮书</span><span>没有太多的悬念——美国经济仍然堪忧，病毒危机带来的“社交疏离”让美国经济在3-5月期间遭遇了严重的下滑，报告受访者对于2020年剩余时间的经济增长都感到悲观。</span></p><p><span>报告指出，所有地区的就业都在持续下降；消费支出仍处于历史低点；大多数地区报告制造业活动急剧下降；非金融服务行业的活动继续恶化；银行贷款的违约率上升。</span></p><p><span>有趣的是，作为“经济晴雨表”的美股三大股指周三却持续上涨，</span><span>道指</span><span>收盘上涨2.21%，</span><span>纳指</span><span>涨0.77%，</span><span>标普500指数</span><span>涨1.48%。虽然经历了年初的暴跌行情，导致已经将跌幅收窄至10.48%，标普跌6.02%，而纳斯达克综合指数则已经累计上涨了4.90%。</span></p><p><span>这对于广大美股投资者来说大概已经一点都不新鲜了。今年以来，虽然美国和这个世界上的其他国家一样，深受疫情危机的威胁，美股三大股指也在2月下旬遭遇暴跌，从历史高位暴跌近30%，然而，在3月23日触底以后，大盘就调转方向开始“大踏步”上攻，截至目前已经累计回涨逾20%。</span></p><p><span>那么，如何理解美国经济现状以及后市预期当前和美股走势的巨大“脱钩”？事实上，背后逻辑并不难理解。</span></p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><span><strong>“美联储看跌期权“及时介入</strong></span></p><p><span>要解释美股和美国经济的“脱钩”，可以从美联储的行动说起，这也是美股当前持续上涨的最重要动力之一。</span></p><p><span>众所周知，疫情爆发以来，为了扶持“奄奄一息”的实体经济状况，美联储在第一时间将利率降至零，并且在随后承诺将会一直维持在历史最低水平直致帮助美国经济度过此轮危机。这还不够，美国的“央行妈妈”打开流动性的“水龙头”，购买美国国债、MBS、商业票据，甚至公司债和公司债券ETF等。而这一切，只有一个目的——保持市场流动性。</span></p><p><span>不仅如此，坚决果敢的美联储以“救世主”的姿态出现，扮演“最后贷款人和买家”的姿态，为市场“兜底”金融资产风险溢价，也给了市场足够的信心，形成了“美联储看跌期权（Fed Puts）”。所谓的“美联储看跌期权（Fed Puts）”就是指，市场相信，一旦股市剧烈下跌，美联储会介入，采取宽松的货币政策。</span></p><p><span>不过美银美林的策略师们提出了一个有趣的问题，如果是美联储的行动支撑了美股当前的上涨，那么在没有美联储支持的情况下，美股的交易水平应该是比现在低得多的。进一步来说，如果当封锁解除、经济重启，美国经济真正意义上好起来的时候，美股还会上涨多少？</span></p><p><span>一个显而易见的答案是，当美国经济好起来，美股内在的潜在公允价格相应提升，但是“美联储看跌期权”的市场价值就会相应下跌。</span></p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><span><strong>美股此轮上涨并不平衡</strong></span></p><p><span>除了“美联储看跌期权”以外，另一方面需要关注的是，就像上文提到的，在本轮美股的反弹中，美股三大股指都出现了20%左右的反弹，指数从2020年以来的累计跌幅已经大幅收窄。</span><span>然而，根据英为财情Investing.com的行情数据显示，代表更小规模公司的罗素2000小盘股指数今年以来仍然累计下跌16.12%。</span><span>为什么会这样？</span></p><p><span>首先，投资者需要注意的是，以标普为代表的大盘，指数构成权重偏向科技企业，而诸如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头在此次疫情期间不但没有受到负面影响，反而受益于人们宅在家等行为习惯的改变。</span></p><p><span>如果将标普各大行业的表现情况分解来看，就会看到，此轮上涨主要仍然是由此轮危机中，获得利好的科技和医疗板块支撑。与此同时，包括医疗、科技、公共事业和日常消费品等行业，都属于是防御性行业，这些行业的反弹也要强于大盘。而传统的周期性行业如工业、能源、非必需品和金融等行业额反弹有限，平均涨势都弱于大盘。这也从另一个侧面反映了投资者当前对于美国经济的前景信心不足，倾向于防守型的投资组合。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20c95c1f33184198984dfdcd3a89df05\"/><span></span></p><p><span>(注：上图蓝色为能源行业ETF-XLE  (NYSE:XLE)，绿色为金融行业ETF-XLF  (NYSE:XLF)，红色为工业行业ETF-XLI  (NYSE:XLI)，橙色为科技行业ETF-XLK  (NYSE:XLK)，棕色为非必须消费品行业ETFXLY (NYSE:XLY)，紫色为医疗行业ETF-XLV  (NYSE:XLV)，行情来源：英为财情Investing.com）</span></p><p><span>此时再来关注罗素2000小盘股，受到疫情打压的更多是美国的中小企业，也包括了是那些并未在纽交所上市的小企业主们，也就是说，在大公司从疫情中获利的同时，他们规模较小的企业们正在苦苦挣扎。</span></p><p><span>“富人们正在变得更有钱。”纽约大学的经济学教授Scott Galloway直言不讳地指出，很多小企业倒闭，数以万计的美国人失业了，而政府的经济刺激支票却流向了亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>这样的大型零售商，这两家公司的业绩一季度都出现了井喷。</span></p><p><span>也正由于中小企业的艰难处境以及投资者对其的不信任，反映出了风险市场现实的逐利者们在一定程度上对美国经济前景根本上是缺乏信心的。</span></p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><span><strong>极端熊市后，边际卖家支撑美股</strong></span></p><p><span>最后，投资者还需要关注的是，此前，美股在经历了一轮极端的大跌以后，随着美股市场的流动性恢复和悲观情绪获得释放，事实上，美股投资者们都已经调整了自己的投资组合，以适应当前的所谓“新形态”，因此市场失去了“边际卖家”，这也帮助美股避免了此前在美国经济衰退期间的进一步下挫。</span></p><p><span>然而，经过这段时间的大幅回涨过后，从技术面来看，标普500指数目前距离200日均线已经是咫尺之遥，媒体近日对于这一关键点位的讨论甚嚣尘上，因为根据此前的经验，这一关键点位对于交易员来说是一个关键的调整仓位信号。和200日均线日渐接近相伴的是美股2016年以来的最大净空头水平。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34f76815f3645c2886ad2b350443f63\"/><span></span><span>SPY标普20</span><span>0日均线图，来自英为财情Investing.com</span></p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><span><strong>总结</strong></span></p><p><span>影响美国股市整体走势的，不仅仅是美国的经济基本面，还包括市场流动性和市场情绪等。虽然流动性和市场情绪在短时间内会对美股市场产生更大影响，但是万变不离其宗，经济基本面才是美股最终的“归宿”。</span></p><p><span>悲观的美银美林全球股票衍生品主管Benjamin Bowler就指出，从历史数据来看，美股在后市恐怕还会有一轮新的回调。无独有偶，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>的分析团队也表示，美股公司的业绩报告显示，目前投资者对于企业后市的预测过于乐观了，美股后市可能仍然会有一轮下调，投资者需要为更为漫长、缓慢和不平衡的复苏做准备，而目前这样的情绪尚未反应到股市中去。花旗集团也认为，市场能否无限期向上并不明朗，因此投资者必须保持谨慎。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>点击文末【阅读原文】查看纳斯达克指数行情走势。</span></strong></span></p><hr/><p><strong><span>入群·领取资料</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span>欢迎添加英为财情小助手微信Investing_cn</span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><strong><span>文章转载·微信互推·商务合作</span></strong></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span>请在后台留言</span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong>推荐阅读</strong></span></p><p><span><strong>近期热门<strong><span> </span></strong></strong></span><strong><strong><span>|</span><strong> <strong>ETF规模直逼7000亿！这些优秀标的值得关注</strong></strong></strong></strong></p><p><strong><strong><span>美股公司 </span></strong><span> |</span><strong> <strong><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>崛起的深度复盘</strong></strong></strong></strong></p><p><strong>专业科普 </strong><span> | <strong><strong>国债价格和国债收益率有什么关系？</strong></strong></span></p><p><strong>专业科普 </strong><span> | <strong><strong>20张图带你看懂一季度海外经济走势</strong></strong></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72d58c6467fe4dbaa5db049a11db43e9\"/></p><p><strong arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>欢迎转载及分享至朋友圈 </span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><span>更多精彩请点击【阅读原文】</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>戳原文，更有料</span></strong></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么美股走势和美国经济基本面出现了脱钩？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么美股走势和美国经济基本面出现了脱钩？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-28 19:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p>点击蓝字订阅英为财情公众号</p><p>发送股票、股指、国债关键词，获取实时行情</p><p><span>美联储周四凌晨公布的</span><span>经济褐皮书</span><span>没有太多的悬念——美国经济仍然堪忧，病毒危机带来的“社交疏离”让美国经济在3-5月期间遭遇了严重的下滑，报告受访者对于2020年剩余时间的经济增长都感到悲观。</span></p><p><span>报告指出，所有地区的就业都在持续下降；消费支出仍处于历史低点；大多数地区报告制造业活动急剧下降；非金融服务行业的活动继续恶化；银行贷款的违约率上升。</span></p><p><span>有趣的是，作为“经济晴雨表”的美股三大股指周三却持续上涨，</span><span>道指</span><span>收盘上涨2.21%，</span><span>纳指</span><span>涨0.77%，</span><span>标普500指数</span><span>涨1.48%。虽然经历了年初的暴跌行情，导致已经将跌幅收窄至10.48%，标普跌6.02%，而纳斯达克综合指数则已经累计上涨了4.90%。</span></p><p><span>这对于广大美股投资者来说大概已经一点都不新鲜了。今年以来，虽然美国和这个世界上的其他国家一样，深受疫情危机的威胁，美股三大股指也在2月下旬遭遇暴跌，从历史高位暴跌近30%，然而，在3月23日触底以后，大盘就调转方向开始“大踏步”上攻，截至目前已经累计回涨逾20%。</span></p><p><span>那么，如何理解美国经济现状以及后市预期当前和美股走势的巨大“脱钩”？事实上，背后逻辑并不难理解。</span></p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><span><strong>“美联储看跌期权“及时介入</strong></span></p><p><span>要解释美股和美国经济的“脱钩”，可以从美联储的行动说起，这也是美股当前持续上涨的最重要动力之一。</span></p><p><span>众所周知，疫情爆发以来，为了扶持“奄奄一息”的实体经济状况，美联储在第一时间将利率降至零，并且在随后承诺将会一直维持在历史最低水平直致帮助美国经济度过此轮危机。这还不够，美国的“央行妈妈”打开流动性的“水龙头”，购买美国国债、MBS、商业票据，甚至公司债和公司债券ETF等。而这一切，只有一个目的——保持市场流动性。</span></p><p><span>不仅如此，坚决果敢的美联储以“救世主”的姿态出现，扮演“最后贷款人和买家”的姿态，为市场“兜底”金融资产风险溢价，也给了市场足够的信心，形成了“美联储看跌期权（Fed Puts）”。所谓的“美联储看跌期权（Fed Puts）”就是指，市场相信，一旦股市剧烈下跌，美联储会介入，采取宽松的货币政策。</span></p><p><span>不过美银美林的策略师们提出了一个有趣的问题，如果是美联储的行动支撑了美股当前的上涨，那么在没有美联储支持的情况下，美股的交易水平应该是比现在低得多的。进一步来说，如果当封锁解除、经济重启，美国经济真正意义上好起来的时候，美股还会上涨多少？</span></p><p><span>一个显而易见的答案是，当美国经济好起来，美股内在的潜在公允价格相应提升，但是“美联储看跌期权”的市场价值就会相应下跌。</span></p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><span><strong>美股此轮上涨并不平衡</strong></span></p><p><span>除了“美联储看跌期权”以外，另一方面需要关注的是，就像上文提到的，在本轮美股的反弹中，美股三大股指都出现了20%左右的反弹，指数从2020年以来的累计跌幅已经大幅收窄。</span><span>然而，根据英为财情Investing.com的行情数据显示，代表更小规模公司的罗素2000小盘股指数今年以来仍然累计下跌16.12%。</span><span>为什么会这样？</span></p><p><span>首先，投资者需要注意的是，以标普为代表的大盘，指数构成权重偏向科技企业，而诸如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头在此次疫情期间不但没有受到负面影响，反而受益于人们宅在家等行为习惯的改变。</span></p><p><span>如果将标普各大行业的表现情况分解来看，就会看到，此轮上涨主要仍然是由此轮危机中，获得利好的科技和医疗板块支撑。与此同时，包括医疗、科技、公共事业和日常消费品等行业，都属于是防御性行业，这些行业的反弹也要强于大盘。而传统的周期性行业如工业、能源、非必需品和金融等行业额反弹有限，平均涨势都弱于大盘。这也从另一个侧面反映了投资者当前对于美国经济的前景信心不足，倾向于防守型的投资组合。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20c95c1f33184198984dfdcd3a89df05\"/><span></span></p><p><span>(注：上图蓝色为能源行业ETF-XLE  (NYSE:XLE)，绿色为金融行业ETF-XLF  (NYSE:XLF)，红色为工业行业ETF-XLI  (NYSE:XLI)，橙色为科技行业ETF-XLK  (NYSE:XLK)，棕色为非必须消费品行业ETFXLY (NYSE:XLY)，紫色为医疗行业ETF-XLV  (NYSE:XLV)，行情来源：英为财情Investing.com）</span></p><p><span>此时再来关注罗素2000小盘股，受到疫情打压的更多是美国的中小企业，也包括了是那些并未在纽交所上市的小企业主们，也就是说，在大公司从疫情中获利的同时，他们规模较小的企业们正在苦苦挣扎。</span></p><p><span>“富人们正在变得更有钱。”纽约大学的经济学教授Scott Galloway直言不讳地指出，很多小企业倒闭，数以万计的美国人失业了，而政府的经济刺激支票却流向了亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>这样的大型零售商，这两家公司的业绩一季度都出现了井喷。</span></p><p><span>也正由于中小企业的艰难处境以及投资者对其的不信任，反映出了风险市场现实的逐利者们在一定程度上对美国经济前景根本上是缺乏信心的。</span></p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><span><strong>极端熊市后，边际卖家支撑美股</strong></span></p><p><span>最后，投资者还需要关注的是，此前，美股在经历了一轮极端的大跌以后，随着美股市场的流动性恢复和悲观情绪获得释放，事实上，美股投资者们都已经调整了自己的投资组合，以适应当前的所谓“新形态”，因此市场失去了“边际卖家”，这也帮助美股避免了此前在美国经济衰退期间的进一步下挫。</span></p><p><span>然而，经过这段时间的大幅回涨过后，从技术面来看，标普500指数目前距离200日均线已经是咫尺之遥，媒体近日对于这一关键点位的讨论甚嚣尘上，因为根据此前的经验，这一关键点位对于交易员来说是一个关键的调整仓位信号。和200日均线日渐接近相伴的是美股2016年以来的最大净空头水平。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c34f76815f3645c2886ad2b350443f63\"/><span></span><span>SPY标普20</span><span>0日均线图，来自英为财情Investing.com</span></p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><span><strong>总结</strong></span></p><p><span>影响美国股市整体走势的，不仅仅是美国的经济基本面，还包括市场流动性和市场情绪等。虽然流动性和市场情绪在短时间内会对美股市场产生更大影响，但是万变不离其宗，经济基本面才是美股最终的“归宿”。</span></p><p><span>悲观的美银美林全球股票衍生品主管Benjamin Bowler就指出，从历史数据来看，美股在后市恐怕还会有一轮新的回调。无独有偶，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>的分析团队也表示，美股公司的业绩报告显示，目前投资者对于企业后市的预测过于乐观了，美股后市可能仍然会有一轮下调，投资者需要为更为漫长、缓慢和不平衡的复苏做准备，而目前这样的情绪尚未反应到股市中去。花旗集团也认为，市场能否无限期向上并不明朗，因此投资者必须保持谨慎。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>点击文末【阅读原文】查看纳斯达克指数行情走势。</span></strong></span></p><hr/><p><strong><span>入群·领取资料</span></strong></p><p><span><strong><span>欢迎添加英为财情小助手微信Investing_cn</span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span><strong><span>文章转载·微信互推·商务合作</span></strong></span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong><span>请在后台留言</span></strong></span></p><p><span><strong>推荐阅读</strong></span></p><p><span><strong>近期热门<strong><span> </span></strong></strong></span><strong><strong><span>|</span><strong> <strong>ETF规模直逼7000亿！这些优秀标的值得关注</strong></strong></strong></strong></p><p><strong><strong><span>美股公司 </span></strong><span> |</span><strong> <strong><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>崛起的深度复盘</strong></strong></strong></strong></p><p><strong>专业科普 </strong><span> | <strong><strong>国债价格和国债收益率有什么关系？</strong></strong></span></p><p><strong>专业科普 </strong><span> | <strong><strong>20张图带你看懂一季度海外经济走势</strong></strong></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72d58c6467fe4dbaa5db049a11db43e9\"/></p><p><strong arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>欢迎转载及分享至朋友圈 </span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><span>更多精彩请点击【阅读原文】</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>戳原文，更有料</span></strong></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI3NjkxMTk0NQ==&mid=2247496382&idx=2&sn=ce9e15c964fd8a9f47b9447f36bbf4a5&chksm=eb6cf098dc1b798e12bee91588b2c793dbbb581c76076fab70d0457d2fda85d2c2a86cf834e5&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2038266621","content_text":"点击蓝字订阅英为财情公众号发送股票、股指、国债关键词，获取实时行情美联储周四凌晨公布的经济褐皮书没有太多的悬念——美国经济仍然堪忧，病毒危机带来的“社交疏离”让美国经济在3-5月期间遭遇了严重的下滑，报告受访者对于2020年剩余时间的经济增长都感到悲观。报告指出，所有地区的就业都在持续下降；消费支出仍处于历史低点；大多数地区报告制造业活动急剧下降；非金融服务行业的活动继续恶化；银行贷款的违约率上升。有趣的是，作为“经济晴雨表”的美股三大股指周三却持续上涨，道指收盘上涨2.21%，纳指涨0.77%，标普500指数涨1.48%。虽然经历了年初的暴跌行情，导致已经将跌幅收窄至10.48%，标普跌6.02%，而纳斯达克综合指数则已经累计上涨了4.90%。这对于广大美股投资者来说大概已经一点都不新鲜了。今年以来，虽然美国和这个世界上的其他国家一样，深受疫情危机的威胁，美股三大股指也在2月下旬遭遇暴跌，从历史高位暴跌近30%，然而，在3月23日触底以后，大盘就调转方向开始“大踏步”上攻，截至目前已经累计回涨逾20%。那么，如何理解美国经济现状以及后市预期当前和美股走势的巨大“脱钩”？事实上，背后逻辑并不难理解。01“美联储看跌期权“及时介入要解释美股和美国经济的“脱钩”，可以从美联储的行动说起，这也是美股当前持续上涨的最重要动力之一。众所周知，疫情爆发以来，为了扶持“奄奄一息”的实体经济状况，美联储在第一时间将利率降至零，并且在随后承诺将会一直维持在历史最低水平直致帮助美国经济度过此轮危机。这还不够，美国的“央行妈妈”打开流动性的“水龙头”，购买美国国债、MBS、商业票据，甚至公司债和公司债券ETF等。而这一切，只有一个目的——保持市场流动性。不仅如此，坚决果敢的美联储以“救世主”的姿态出现，扮演“最后贷款人和买家”的姿态，为市场“兜底”金融资产风险溢价，也给了市场足够的信心，形成了“美联储看跌期权（Fed Puts）”。所谓的“美联储看跌期权（Fed Puts）”就是指，市场相信，一旦股市剧烈下跌，美联储会介入，采取宽松的货币政策。不过美银美林的策略师们提出了一个有趣的问题，如果是美联储的行动支撑了美股当前的上涨，那么在没有美联储支持的情况下，美股的交易水平应该是比现在低得多的。进一步来说，如果当封锁解除、经济重启，美国经济真正意义上好起来的时候，美股还会上涨多少？一个显而易见的答案是，当美国经济好起来，美股内在的潜在公允价格相应提升，但是“美联储看跌期权”的市场价值就会相应下跌。02美股此轮上涨并不平衡除了“美联储看跌期权”以外，另一方面需要关注的是，就像上文提到的，在本轮美股的反弹中，美股三大股指都出现了20%左右的反弹，指数从2020年以来的累计跌幅已经大幅收窄。然而，根据英为财情Investing.com的行情数据显示，代表更小规模公司的罗素2000小盘股指数今年以来仍然累计下跌16.12%。为什么会这样？首先，投资者需要注意的是，以标普为代表的大盘，指数构成权重偏向科技企业，而诸如苹果、谷歌、微软、亚马逊等科技巨头在此次疫情期间不但没有受到负面影响，反而受益于人们宅在家等行为习惯的改变。如果将标普各大行业的表现情况分解来看，就会看到，此轮上涨主要仍然是由此轮危机中，获得利好的科技和医疗板块支撑。与此同时，包括医疗、科技、公共事业和日常消费品等行业，都属于是防御性行业，这些行业的反弹也要强于大盘。而传统的周期性行业如工业、能源、非必需品和金融等行业额反弹有限，平均涨势都弱于大盘。这也从另一个侧面反映了投资者当前对于美国经济的前景信心不足，倾向于防守型的投资组合。(注：上图蓝色为能源行业ETF-XLE  (NYSE:XLE)，绿色为金融行业ETF-XLF  (NYSE:XLF)，红色为工业行业ETF-XLI  (NYSE:XLI)，橙色为科技行业ETF-XLK  (NYSE:XLK)，棕色为非必须消费品行业ETFXLY (NYSE:XLY)，紫色为医疗行业ETF-XLV  (NYSE:XLV)，行情来源：英为财情Investing.com）此时再来关注罗素2000小盘股，受到疫情打压的更多是美国的中小企业，也包括了是那些并未在纽交所上市的小企业主们，也就是说，在大公司从疫情中获利的同时，他们规模较小的企业们正在苦苦挣扎。“富人们正在变得更有钱。”纽约大学的经济学教授Scott Galloway直言不讳地指出，很多小企业倒闭，数以万计的美国人失业了，而政府的经济刺激支票却流向了亚马逊、沃尔玛这样的大型零售商，这两家公司的业绩一季度都出现了井喷。也正由于中小企业的艰难处境以及投资者对其的不信任，反映出了风险市场现实的逐利者们在一定程度上对美国经济前景根本上是缺乏信心的。03极端熊市后，边际卖家支撑美股最后，投资者还需要关注的是，此前，美股在经历了一轮极端的大跌以后，随着美股市场的流动性恢复和悲观情绪获得释放，事实上，美股投资者们都已经调整了自己的投资组合，以适应当前的所谓“新形态”，因此市场失去了“边际卖家”，这也帮助美股避免了此前在美国经济衰退期间的进一步下挫。然而，经过这段时间的大幅回涨过后，从技术面来看，标普500指数目前距离200日均线已经是咫尺之遥，媒体近日对于这一关键点位的讨论甚嚣尘上，因为根据此前的经验，这一关键点位对于交易员来说是一个关键的调整仓位信号。和200日均线日渐接近相伴的是美股2016年以来的最大净空头水平。SPY标普200日均线图，来自英为财情Investing.com04总结影响美国股市整体走势的，不仅仅是美国的经济基本面，还包括市场流动性和市场情绪等。虽然流动性和市场情绪在短时间内会对美股市场产生更大影响，但是万变不离其宗，经济基本面才是美股最终的“归宿”。悲观的美银美林全球股票衍生品主管Benjamin Bowler就指出，从历史数据来看，美股在后市恐怕还会有一轮新的回调。无独有偶，加拿大皇家银行的分析团队也表示，美股公司的业绩报告显示，目前投资者对于企业后市的预测过于乐观了，美股后市可能仍然会有一轮下调，投资者需要为更为漫长、缓慢和不平衡的复苏做准备，而目前这样的情绪尚未反应到股市中去。花旗集团也认为，市场能否无限期向上并不明朗，因此投资者必须保持谨慎。点击文末【阅读原文】查看纳斯达克指数行情走势。入群·领取资料欢迎添加英为财情小助手微信Investing_cn文章转载·微信互推·商务合作请在后台留言推荐阅读近期热门 | ETF规模直逼7000亿！这些优秀标的值得关注美股公司  | 拼多多崛起的深度复盘专业科普  | 国债价格和国债收益率有什么关系？专业科普  | 20张图带你看懂一季度海外经济走势欢迎转载及分享至朋友圈 更多精彩请点击【阅读原文】戳原文，更有料","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953374185,"gmtCreate":1590148925747,"gmtModify":1704192010188,"author":{"id":"3494732093438793","authorId":"3494732093438793","name":"绿叶菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9d22db7adaf5ae0039e3db0d04d5c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494732093438793","idStr":"3494732093438793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"农产品包括好吃的水果吗？","listText":"农产品包括好吃的水果吗？","text":"农产品包括好吃的水果吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953374185","repostId":"2037593204","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2037593204","pubTimestamp":1590147456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2037593204?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-22 19:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多第一季度营收65.41亿元 百亿补贴仍会持续","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2037593204","media":"中国证券网","summary":"上证报中国证券网讯（记者 温婷）拼多多22日发布2020年第一季度财报，公司当季实现收入65.41亿元，较2019年同期增长44%。数据显示，拼多多的年度活跃买家数已经达到6.28亿，单季度增加了42","content":"<div>\n<p>上证报中国证券网讯（记者 温婷）拼多多22日发布2020年第一季度财报，公司当季实现收入65.41亿元，较2019年同期增长44%。数据显示，拼多多的年度活跃买家数已经达到6.28亿，单季度增加了4290万；相比2019年同期增加了1.85亿。据悉，年度活跃买家是指过去12个月内在拼多多平台上至少下过一笔订单的消费者数，包括独立App、小程序与H5等移动端渠道。在最新一个季度，拼多多的平均月活...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202005221940257b08c002&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多第一季度营收65.41亿元 百亿补贴仍会持续</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多第一季度营收65.41亿元 百亿补贴仍会持续\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-22 19:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202005221940257b08c002&s=b><strong>中国证券网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>上证报中国证券网讯（记者 温婷）拼多多22日发布2020年第一季度财报，公司当季实现收入65.41亿元，较2019年同期增长44%。数据显示，拼多多的年度活跃买家数已经达到6.28亿，单季度增加了4290万；相比2019年同期增加了1.85亿。据悉，年度活跃买家是指过去12个月内在拼多多平台上至少下过一笔订单的消费者数，包括独立App、小程序与H5等移动端渠道。在最新一个季度，拼多多的平均月活...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202005221940257b08c002&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c16a083ab273c19aaae21cdb697a0","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202005221940257b08c002&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2037593204","content_text":"上证报中国证券网讯（记者 温婷）拼多多22日发布2020年第一季度财报，公司当季实现收入65.41亿元，较2019年同期增长44%。数据显示，拼多多的年度活跃买家数已经达到6.28亿，单季度增加了4290万；相比2019年同期增加了1.85亿。据悉，年度活跃买家是指过去12个月内在拼多多平台上至少下过一笔订单的消费者数，包括独立App、小程序与H5等移动端渠道。在最新一个季度，拼多多的平均月活用户数达到4.87亿，较2019年同期增长了1.98亿。财报显示，拼多多因为持续进行“百亿补贴”以及疫情期间对于医疗用品和农产品上行提供了大量补贴，本季度销售及市场推广费用达到72.97亿元。因此，拼多多在本季度非通用会计准则下归属于普通股股东的净亏损为31.70亿元，去年同期净亏损为13.79亿元。截至一季度末，拼多多账上现金及现金等价物和短期投资合计426亿元（不含受限资金）。拼多多方面表示，公司现金储备充足，百亿补贴仍会持续，并不断扩大补贴的品类与商品数量。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959715608,"gmtCreate":1590020147004,"gmtModify":1704191518755,"author":{"id":"3494732093438793","authorId":"3494732093438793","name":"绿叶菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9d22db7adaf5ae0039e3db0d04d5c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494732093438793","idStr":"3494732093438793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"EBITDA的计算中净利润是怎么算的？","listText":"EBITDA的计算中净利润是怎么算的？","text":"EBITDA的计算中净利润是怎么算的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959715608","repostId":"2035395851","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":912243375,"gmtCreate":1580310300897,"gmtModify":1704341251694,"author":{"id":"3494732093438793","authorId":"3494732093438793","name":"绿叶菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9d22db7adaf5ae0039e3db0d04d5c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494732093438793","idStr":"3494732093438793"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"科普！净利润、EBITDA和经调整EBITDA区别","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2035395851","media":"MBA智库","summary":"原标题：科普！净利润、EBITDA和经调整EBITDA区别 来源：MBA智库EBITDA是Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amort","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：科普！净利润、EBITDA和经调整EBITDA区别 来源：MBA智库</p><p>EBITDA是Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization的缩写，即未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的利润。 EBITDA被私人资本公司广泛使用，用以计算公司经营业绩。</p><p>EBITDA的计算公式： </p><p>   净利润</p><p>+净利息费用</p><p>+企业税金</p><p>+折旧及摊销</p><p>= EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）</p><p>也就是净利润，该指标无法显示 一家公司真实的盈利能力。EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）忽视了排除折旧和摊销后维持一家公司业务运营所需要的成本。</p><p>EBITDA的运用</p><p>最初私人资本公司运用EBITDA，而不考虑利息、税项、折旧及摊销，是因为他们要用自己认为更精确的数字来代替他们：</p><p>1）他们移除利息和税项，是因为他们要用自己的税率计算方法以及新的资本结构下的财务成本算法；</p><p>2）摊销费用被排除在外，是因为它衡量的是前期获得的无形资产，而不是本期现金开支；</p><p>3）折旧是对资本支出的非直接的回顾，也被排除在外，并被一个未来资本开支的估算值所代替；</p><p>后来，许多上市公司、分析师以及媒体记者亦纷纷怂恿投资人用EBITDA去衡量上市公司的现金情况。 EBITDA常被拿来和现金流比较，因为它和净收入之间的差距就是两项对现金流没有影响的开支项目， 即折旧和摊销。</p><p>为什么EBITDA会误入歧途？</p><p>然而，上市公司将EBITDA等同于现金流，却是一个非常不可取、很容易将企业导入歧途的做法！ 原因何在？</p><p>1）它排除了利息和税项，但它们却是真实的现金开支项目，而并非总是可选的， 一个公司必须支付它的税款和贷款；</p><p>2）它并没有将所有的非现金项目都排除在外。 只有折旧和摊销被排除掉了， EBITDA中没有调整地非现金项目还有备抵坏账、计提存货减值和股票期权成本；</p><p>3）不同于现金流对营运资本的准确量度，EBITDA忽略了营运资本的变化情况。 例如，营运资本的额外投资就意味着消耗现金；</p><p>4）最后，EBITDA的最大缺点反映在「E」上，即利润项上。 如果一家上市公司保修成本、重构开支以及备抵坏账的准备金不足或超支，那么它的利润项都会发生变化倾斜。</p><p>在这样的情况下，企业就很容易被EBITDA导入歧途。 如果它过早地报告经营收入，或是将一些普通成本视作资本投入，那么EBITDA报告的利润结果也是值得可疑的。 如果它通过资本来回交易的方式膨胀收入，这种情况下，EBITDA报告的利润结果就一点价值也没有了。</p><p>Adjusted EBITDA（调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润）</p><p>  总经营收入</p><p>+总经营利润</p><p>–总运营费用</p><p>–隐藏在经营利润中的总净非运营支出</p><p>–ESO员工股票期权支出</p><p>+商誉摊销</p><p>+折旧和摊销（现金流）</p><p>= Adjusted EBITDA（调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润）</p><p>AdjustedEBITDA（调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润）和EBITA是一种对公司税前的现金利润更准确和更具有可比性的计算方式。</p><p>推荐阅读：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>Q1经调整利润270亿元，同比增长29%，大超预期</p><p>编辑/elisa</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科普！净利润、EBITDA和经调整EBITDA区别</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科普！净利润、EBITDA和经调整EBITDA区别\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-13 22:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-05-13/doc-iircuyvi2952283.shtml><strong>MBA智库</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：科普！净利润、EBITDA和经调整EBITDA区别 来源：MBA智库EBITDA是Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization的缩写，即未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的利润。 EBITDA被私人资本公司广泛使用，用以计算公司经营业绩。EBITDA的计算公式：    净利润+净利息费用+企业税金+折旧及摊销= ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-05-13/doc-iircuyvi2952283.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/652439e9a583362a48785b3b6c9d61c0","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-05-13/doc-iircuyvi2952283.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2035395851","content_text":"原标题：科普！净利润、EBITDA和经调整EBITDA区别 来源：MBA智库EBITDA是Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization的缩写，即未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的利润。 EBITDA被私人资本公司广泛使用，用以计算公司经营业绩。EBITDA的计算公式：    净利润+净利息费用+企业税金+折旧及摊销= EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）也就是净利润，该指标无法显示 一家公司真实的盈利能力。EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）忽视了排除折旧和摊销后维持一家公司业务运营所需要的成本。EBITDA的运用最初私人资本公司运用EBITDA，而不考虑利息、税项、折旧及摊销，是因为他们要用自己认为更精确的数字来代替他们：1）他们移除利息和税项，是因为他们要用自己的税率计算方法以及新的资本结构下的财务成本算法；2）摊销费用被排除在外，是因为它衡量的是前期获得的无形资产，而不是本期现金开支；3）折旧是对资本支出的非直接的回顾，也被排除在外，并被一个未来资本开支的估算值所代替；后来，许多上市公司、分析师以及媒体记者亦纷纷怂恿投资人用EBITDA去衡量上市公司的现金情况。 EBITDA常被拿来和现金流比较，因为它和净收入之间的差距就是两项对现金流没有影响的开支项目， 即折旧和摊销。为什么EBITDA会误入歧途？然而，上市公司将EBITDA等同于现金流，却是一个非常不可取、很容易将企业导入歧途的做法！ 原因何在？1）它排除了利息和税项，但它们却是真实的现金开支项目，而并非总是可选的， 一个公司必须支付它的税款和贷款；2）它并没有将所有的非现金项目都排除在外。 只有折旧和摊销被排除掉了， EBITDA中没有调整地非现金项目还有备抵坏账、计提存货减值和股票期权成本；3）不同于现金流对营运资本的准确量度，EBITDA忽略了营运资本的变化情况。 例如，营运资本的额外投资就意味着消耗现金；4）最后，EBITDA的最大缺点反映在「E」上，即利润项上。 如果一家上市公司保修成本、重构开支以及备抵坏账的准备金不足或超支，那么它的利润项都会发生变化倾斜。在这样的情况下，企业就很容易被EBITDA导入歧途。 如果它过早地报告经营收入，或是将一些普通成本视作资本投入，那么EBITDA报告的利润结果也是值得可疑的。 如果它通过资本来回交易的方式膨胀收入，这种情况下，EBITDA报告的利润结果就一点价值也没有了。Adjusted EBITDA（调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润）  总经营收入+总经营利润–总运营费用–隐藏在经营利润中的总净非运营支出–ESO员工股票期权支出+商誉摊销+折旧和摊销（现金流）= Adjusted EBITDA（调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润）AdjustedEBITDA（调整后税息折旧及摊销前利润）和EBITA是一种对公司税前的现金利润更准确和更具有可比性的计算方式。推荐阅读：腾讯Q1经调整利润270亿元，同比增长29%，大超预期编辑/elisa","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}