大空投的个人主页 - 老虎社区

大空投

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IP属地：浙江

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2019-07-29

踏入美股市场已有一余载，从最初的热衷盘前交易到频繁的追涨杀跌，期间不止摔了多少跟头，每次止损都犹如刀子割在心口一般，血一滴一滴的流，后来一次偶然的机会尝试了期权，从此热衷于期权交易，期间兴奋过，高潮过，失落过，颓废过…，有过一夜百倍的神话，也有过瞬间爆仓的绝望，

2020-04-08

$爱奇艺(IQ)$一个电视视频软件值一千亿人民币？

2018-11-01

$AAPL 20181102 190.0 PUT(AAPL)$誓空到底

2018-10-30

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$不要与趋势作对试图做多，傻逼行为

2018-11-02

$苹果(AAPL)$美国遏制中国的意志没有变，我兔也不会妥协，底线摆在那，特朗普的电话无非是看美股不行了要稳，大忽悠，市场上过多少次当了

2018-11-01

$苹果(AAPL)$半仓put本来是盈利的，睡觉了没平仓，到现在亏损六十个点，想想也是醉了，风险也是要回避的，硬抗是傻逼行为

2019-10-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 此时此刻，只想再次骂一句九宫那**

2018-11-01

$F 20181102 9.5 CALL(F)$**

2018-11-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$不信今天跌不到俩个点

2018-10-30

$IQ 20181102 24.0 CALL(IQ)$小爱同学不要让我失望

2018-10-31

$苹果(AAPL)$趋势已成，

2020-06-10

标题党，辣鸡

官宣！美国已陷入经济衰退，下一步将是大萧条再现？

2019-06-18

$SPY 20190619 295.0 CALL(SPY)$受俩大佬通电话消息刺激，贸易战有缓和趋势，标普直线拉升，追高进去了，这笔应该不会亏钱

2018-10-30

$赣锋锂业(01772)$垃圾

2018-10-30

$福特汽车(F)$小特今天比大特风光$福特汽车(F)$

2018-10-23

$京东(JD)$垃圾真垃圾买跌不买涨

2018-11-23

$网易(NTES)$涉嫌赌博犯罪？

2022-12-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 每天跌10块，就这样一直跌吧

2019-01-03

$苹果(AAPL)$跌幅40.%，再做空就**了吧

2022-12-28

$苹果(AAPL)$ 所有的亏损都是买在期权上，以后再做旗下真的是个**

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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所有的亏损都是买在期权上，以后再做旗下真的是个**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621814383","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":819578110,"gmtCreate":1630081035330,"gmtModify":1704955757847,"author":{"id":"3494387386007890","authorId":"3494387386007890","name":"大空投","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494387386007890","authorIdStr":"3494387386007890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么老虎总是推荐这些**的文档？唉，股民的智商都是被这些**拉低的。","listText":"为什么老虎总是推荐这些**的文档？唉，股民的智商都是被这些**拉低的。","text":"为什么老虎总是推荐这些**的文档？唉，股民的智商都是被这些**拉低的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819578110","repostId":"819883256","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":819883256,"gmtCreate":1630054290675,"gmtModify":1716217837738,"author":{"id":"3451627561239325","authorId":"3451627561239325","name":"漫投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84032dec87e05e119903d285a35661a1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451627561239325","authorIdStr":"3451627561239325"},"themes":[],"title":"鲍爷应该不会太鹰，和平鸽保平安🐦","htmlText":"首次申请失业救济人数终于反弹了，为什么说终于，之前就有分析在Delta导致的感染病例不断攀升的情况下，日均新增都达到15万，但是从经济数据上看，包括首申和失业率数据，对经济貌似没有一点影响。这不是太矛盾了么。在周四发布的首申人数反弹了，美国8月21日当周首次申请失业救济人数35.3万人，前值34.8万人。虽然只比预期值35万高了一点点，但这就是信号，数据比实际情况是有延迟的。持续申请也有反弹286.2万，上星期是282万。再看下疫情的最新情况，目前还没有出现拐点，继续上冲，估计好多人心里都嘀咕了，这疫苗接种率都60%了，对控制疫情控制貌似没有多大作用，死亡率确实比疫苗前低了，全体免疫的路还很长。目前疫情这么严重的情况下，就业数据还在不断向好，核心原因还是每周额外 300 美元联邦失业救济金在部分州取消。取消额外300救济金的州申请救助下降了25%，是没有取消额救济金州的两倍多。所以接下来是等到所有州全部取消，把人们逼回到工作岗位上，造成申请救助金的人数大幅下降，从而减少QE就更加顺理成章。还是疫情的冲击下，人们就算拿不到额外补助也不回工作岗位呢？另外从通胀角度来看，美国二季度个人消费支出(PCE)年化季环比11.9%，预期12.2%，前值11.8%，低于预期。美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比6.6%，预期6.7%，前值6.5%，低于预期。&nbsp;至少说明二季度经济恢复的没有那么乐观，周五晚上是美联储最关心的通胀指标7月份PCE数据，大概率也不会有什么意外，因为CPI数据也没有太高，核心CPI还下降呢。而且8月油价已经开始下降，到时8月数据的通胀压力会减少一些。最后还有鲍威尔的连任问题，拜登还没放准话，需要等到秋季，在这个节骨眼上，鲍爷在杰克逊霍尔会议上应该不会太鹰，和平鸽保平安🙏，要人民满意，瞌睡乔铁王座才能坐的稳，连任才有保障！","listText":"首次申请失业救济人数终于反弹了，为什么说终于，之前就有分析在Delta导致的感染病例不断攀升的情况下，日均新增都达到15万，但是从经济数据上看，包括首申和失业率数据，对经济貌似没有一点影响。这不是太矛盾了么。在周四发布的首申人数反弹了，美国8月21日当周首次申请失业救济人数35.3万人，前值34.8万人。虽然只比预期值35万高了一点点，但这就是信号，数据比实际情况是有延迟的。持续申请也有反弹286.2万，上星期是282万。再看下疫情的最新情况，目前还没有出现拐点，继续上冲，估计好多人心里都嘀咕了，这疫苗接种率都60%了，对控制疫情控制貌似没有多大作用，死亡率确实比疫苗前低了，全体免疫的路还很长。目前疫情这么严重的情况下，就业数据还在不断向好，核心原因还是每周额外 300 美元联邦失业救济金在部分州取消。取消额外300救济金的州申请救助下降了25%，是没有取消额救济金州的两倍多。所以接下来是等到所有州全部取消，把人们逼回到工作岗位上，造成申请救助金的人数大幅下降，从而减少QE就更加顺理成章。还是疫情的冲击下，人们就算拿不到额外补助也不回工作岗位呢？另外从通胀角度来看，美国二季度个人消费支出(PCE)年化季环比11.9%，预期12.2%，前值11.8%，低于预期。美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比6.6%，预期6.7%，前值6.5%，低于预期。&nbsp;至少说明二季度经济恢复的没有那么乐观，周五晚上是美联储最关心的通胀指标7月份PCE数据，大概率也不会有什么意外，因为CPI数据也没有太高，核心CPI还下降呢。而且8月油价已经开始下降，到时8月数据的通胀压力会减少一些。最后还有鲍威尔的连任问题，拜登还没放准话，需要等到秋季，在这个节骨眼上，鲍爷在杰克逊霍尔会议上应该不会太鹰，和平鸽保平安🙏，要人民满意，瞌睡乔铁王座才能坐的稳，连任才有保障！","text":"首次申请失业救济人数终于反弹了，为什么说终于，之前就有分析在Delta导致的感染病例不断攀升的情况下，日均新增都达到15万，但是从经济数据上看，包括首申和失业率数据，对经济貌似没有一点影响。这不是太矛盾了么。在周四发布的首申人数反弹了，美国8月21日当周首次申请失业救济人数35.3万人，前值34.8万人。虽然只比预期值35万高了一点点，但这就是信号，数据比实际情况是有延迟的。持续申请也有反弹286.2万，上星期是282万。再看下疫情的最新情况，目前还没有出现拐点，继续上冲，估计好多人心里都嘀咕了，这疫苗接种率都60%了，对控制疫情控制貌似没有多大作用，死亡率确实比疫苗前低了，全体免疫的路还很长。目前疫情这么严重的情况下，就业数据还在不断向好，核心原因还是每周额外 300 美元联邦失业救济金在部分州取消。取消额外300救济金的州申请救助下降了25%，是没有取消额救济金州的两倍多。所以接下来是等到所有州全部取消，把人们逼回到工作岗位上，造成申请救助金的人数大幅下降，从而减少QE就更加顺理成章。还是疫情的冲击下，人们就算拿不到额外补助也不回工作岗位呢？另外从通胀角度来看，美国二季度个人消费支出(PCE)年化季环比11.9%，预期12.2%，前值11.8%，低于预期。美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比6.6%，预期6.7%，前值6.5%，低于预期。 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08:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"官宣！美国已陷入经济衰退，下一步将是大萧条再现？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196526689","media":"腾讯证券","summary":"腾讯证券6月10日讯，美国经济已经正式陷入衰退。美国国家经济研究局的商业周期测定委员会在当地时间8日发布声明：2020年2月标志着始于2009年6月的经济扩张的结束，同时也标志着美国经济衰退的开始。从某些指标来看，虽然失业率有所改善，但可能仍旧接近经济萧条的标准。但经济学家表示，相对于整体持续时间而言，经济低迷很可能达不到萧条的程度。","content":"<p>腾讯证券6月10日讯，美国经济已经正式陷入衰退。</p>\n<p>美国国家经济研究局的商业周期测定委员会在当地时间8日发布声明：2020年2月标志着始于2009年6月的经济扩张的结束，同时也标志着美国经济衰退的开始。</p>\n<p>由于美国失业率处于自“大萧条”（Great Depression）时代以来从未见过的水平——这是工业化世界历史上最严重的经济低迷——有些人可能会想，美国经济最终是否会陷入萧条，以及需要什么条件才会让此事发生。从某些指标来看，虽然失业率有所改善，但可能仍旧接近经济萧条的标准。</p>\n<p>但经济学家表示，相对于整体持续时间而言，经济低迷很可能达不到萧条的程度。这是因为当前这场危机的原因与20世纪初大不相同，政府拥有比当时更多的政策工具来提振经济。</p>\n<p><b>“萧条”的定义</b></p>\n<p>“大萧条”是美国在工业时代经历过的唯一的一次萧条，这个时期跨越了十年，从1929年的股市崩盘延续到了1939年，彼时美国开始为第二次世界大战进行动员。</p>\n<p>萧条并没有确切的定义，就像衰退也没有非常精确的定义一样。就美国而言，经济衰退是由国家经济研究局（NBER）确定的，通常是在经济衰退发生几个月以后。该局周一宣布，美国经济已于2月份正式进入衰退，结束了二战后历史上持续时间最长的扩张时期。</p>\n<p>简而言之，经济衰退和萧条都是经济活动显著下降的时期。但W.E. Upjohn就业研究所的研究主任苏珊·豪斯曼(Susan Houseman)表示，萧条与衰退相比“完全不在一个数量级上”。她说道：“我们已经有80到90年没有见过萧条了。”</p>\n<p><b>失业率</b></p>\n<p>密歇根州立大学的经济学教授斯蒂芬·伍德伯里(Stephen Woodbury)表示，失业率可能是判断经济是否陷入萧条的最佳衡量标准。根据国家经济研究局的数据，失业率在1933年5月份的“大萧条”期间达到了25.6%的峰值。</p>\n<p>根据美国劳工统计局的数据，今年截至5月中旬共有2100万美国人失业，原因是新冠病毒大流行导致经济活动被大范围关闭。这意味着失业率为13.3%，与4月份的14.7%相比略有下降，当时约有2300万美国人失业。除4月以外，目前的失业率处于自“大萧条”时代以来的最高水平。美国劳工统计局的统计数据中包含了被暂时解雇的员工。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff7b471c8a4ff82ec4674bf32a945bf\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"442\"></p>\n<p>从历史上来看，美国的失业率只有两次突破10%，都是在经济衰退期间，分别是在1982年12月份和2009年10月份。</p>\n<p>今年失业率的上升速度在现代历史上是无与伦比的——仅仅用了两个月时间，失业率就从大约3.5%的半个世纪低点上升到了现在的水平。伍德伯里称，相比之下，“大萧条”时代的失业率花了一年多的时间才出现同样的上升。</p>\n<p><b>萧条可能重现？</b></p>\n<p>经济学家说，失业率超过20%并持续几个月很可能符合“萧条”的定义，这意味着五分之一的美国劳动力找不到工作。</p>\n<p>左倾智库布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)汉密尔顿项目(Hamilton Project)的主任、经济学家杰伊·尚博（Jay Shambaugh）表示：“（之前的）衰退已经过去很久了。失业率是不是会上升至20%，然后在那个水平上停留几个季度？”</p>\n<p>“如果12月份的失业率达到20%，那么我认为可以非常公平地说经济陷入了萧条。”他说道。</p>\n<p><b>失业率接近20%</b></p>\n<p>事实上，根据经济学家的说法，与官方失业率相比，真实失业率可能更接近这一水平。</p>\n<p>首先，美国劳工统计局暗示真实失业率实际上在16%以上，该局根据家庭调查确定官方利率。劳工统计局表示，许多本应被归类为休假的美国人似乎在调查中被错误归类，从而压低了官方失业率。4月份也发生了同样的错误分类问题，当时劳工统计局表示，真实失业率在19.7%左右。</p>\n<p>但伍德伯里表示，今天的失业率与大萧条时期的失业率之间的相似之处有些“肤浅”。这是因为，目前失业的美国人中有73%是临时裁员或休假。这意味着在2100万失业的美国人中，从技术上来讲，仍有超过1500万人依附于雇主，并预计一旦各州和公司重新开业，这些人就会重返工作岗位。用于计算失业率的美国失业人数与申请失业保险的人数不同。举例来说，并不是所有的失业者都会申请失业保险金。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3daeefc1aa3fbba230348707125524d\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"411\"></p>\n<p>相对于失业总人口而言，这一临时裁员水平远远超过现代历史上的任何时期（除了4月份，当时这一数字为78%）。在二战以后的时期，最接近的数字是1975年6月份的24.4%。</p>\n<p>“这是现在发生的事情和‘大萧条’期间的一个很大的不同之处。”伍德伯里说道。“这些失业是永久性的。”</p>\n<p>“这些工作失去了，而且一去不复返了。”他说道。</p>\n<p>当然，这些失业岗位中有许多最终可能会是永久性的，这取决于企业倒闭的范围和经济活动重新启动的速度。</p>\n<p><b>这场危机是自己造成的</b></p>\n<p>有些经济学家也不相信失业率——如果失业率正式突破20%的话——会像“大萧条”时期那样长时间徘徊在这个水平上。</p>\n<p>“如果失业率在年底以前下降至10%，我想人们会说这是一场真正可怕的衰退，但不会是一场全面的萧条，除非这种情况持续几年时间。”尚博表示。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d2c04091af8c3ff6c886f728876d2b\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"442\"></p>\n<p>经济学家称，目前的经济形势与“大萧条”时期不同，原因是其在很大程度上是自己造成的。联邦和州政府官员决定关闭广泛的经济部门以阻止新冠病毒传播，而随着各州和企业开始重新开业，经济可能会迎来反弹。</p>\n<p>尚博表示，相比之下，“大萧条”不是自己造成的，而是许多因素的结果，比如股市崩盘、使用金本位制、通货紧缩以及当时的胡佛政府并没有采取任何真正的财政或货币政策来应对危机等。举例来说，失业保险制度直到1935年才创立以应对“大萧条”。</p>\n<p><b>做得够多了吗？</b></p>\n<p>经济学家称，美国政府在“大萧条”的最初几年被打了个措手不及，原因是当时政府还没有像现在这么多可供使用的经济工具。</p>\n<p>这一次，联邦政府官员实施了相对激进的措施，比如为小企业提供各种贷款计划、增加失业救济金以及直接向美国人发钱等，试图避免新冠病毒危机带来进一步的灾难，经济学家说道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3b426e3d3da4fd4202e0a88293bf8d1\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>5月份美国非农就业人数增加了250万人，创下了有记录以来最大的增幅，这使得一些专家对经济复苏的速度将会快于之前预期持乐观态度。</p>\n<p>“就我们是否已经做得够多的问题而言，仍有可以争论的空间。”豪斯曼说道。“当你身在其中时，很难判断到了什么阶段。”</p>","source":"txzq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>官宣！美国已陷入经济衰退，下一步将是大萧条再现？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n官宣！美国已陷入经济衰退，下一步将是大萧条再现？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-10 08:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.qq.com/a/20200610/000919.htm><strong>腾讯证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>腾讯证券6月10日讯，美国经济已经正式陷入衰退。\n美国国家经济研究局的商业周期测定委员会在当地时间8日发布声明：2020年2月标志着始于2009年6月的经济扩张的结束，同时也标志着美国经济衰退的开始。\n由于美国失业率处于自“大萧条”（Great Depression）时代以来从未见过的水平——这是工业化世界历史上最严重的经济低迷——有些人可能会想，美国经济最终是否会陷入萧条，以及需要什么条件才会让...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.qq.com/a/20200610/000919.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.qq.com/a/20200610/000919.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196526689","content_text":"腾讯证券6月10日讯，美国经济已经正式陷入衰退。\n美国国家经济研究局的商业周期测定委员会在当地时间8日发布声明：2020年2月标志着始于2009年6月的经济扩张的结束，同时也标志着美国经济衰退的开始。\n由于美国失业率处于自“大萧条”（Great Depression）时代以来从未见过的水平——这是工业化世界历史上最严重的经济低迷——有些人可能会想，美国经济最终是否会陷入萧条，以及需要什么条件才会让此事发生。从某些指标来看，虽然失业率有所改善，但可能仍旧接近经济萧条的标准。\n但经济学家表示，相对于整体持续时间而言，经济低迷很可能达不到萧条的程度。这是因为当前这场危机的原因与20世纪初大不相同，政府拥有比当时更多的政策工具来提振经济。\n“萧条”的定义\n“大萧条”是美国在工业时代经历过的唯一的一次萧条，这个时期跨越了十年，从1929年的股市崩盘延续到了1939年，彼时美国开始为第二次世界大战进行动员。\n萧条并没有确切的定义，就像衰退也没有非常精确的定义一样。就美国而言，经济衰退是由国家经济研究局（NBER）确定的，通常是在经济衰退发生几个月以后。该局周一宣布，美国经济已于2月份正式进入衰退，结束了二战后历史上持续时间最长的扩张时期。\n简而言之，经济衰退和萧条都是经济活动显著下降的时期。但W.E. Upjohn就业研究所的研究主任苏珊·豪斯曼(Susan Houseman)表示，萧条与衰退相比“完全不在一个数量级上”。她说道：“我们已经有80到90年没有见过萧条了。”\n失业率\n密歇根州立大学的经济学教授斯蒂芬·伍德伯里(Stephen Woodbury)表示，失业率可能是判断经济是否陷入萧条的最佳衡量标准。根据国家经济研究局的数据，失业率在1933年5月份的“大萧条”期间达到了25.6%的峰值。\n根据美国劳工统计局的数据，今年截至5月中旬共有2100万美国人失业，原因是新冠病毒大流行导致经济活动被大范围关闭。这意味着失业率为13.3%，与4月份的14.7%相比略有下降，当时约有2300万美国人失业。除4月以外，目前的失业率处于自“大萧条”时代以来的最高水平。美国劳工统计局的统计数据中包含了被暂时解雇的员工。\n\n从历史上来看，美国的失业率只有两次突破10%，都是在经济衰退期间，分别是在1982年12月份和2009年10月份。\n今年失业率的上升速度在现代历史上是无与伦比的——仅仅用了两个月时间，失业率就从大约3.5%的半个世纪低点上升到了现在的水平。伍德伯里称，相比之下，“大萧条”时代的失业率花了一年多的时间才出现同样的上升。\n萧条可能重现？\n经济学家说，失业率超过20%并持续几个月很可能符合“萧条”的定义，这意味着五分之一的美国劳动力找不到工作。\n左倾智库布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)汉密尔顿项目(Hamilton Project)的主任、经济学家杰伊·尚博（Jay Shambaugh）表示：“（之前的）衰退已经过去很久了。失业率是不是会上升至20%，然后在那个水平上停留几个季度？”\n“如果12月份的失业率达到20%，那么我认为可以非常公平地说经济陷入了萧条。”他说道。\n失业率接近20%\n事实上，根据经济学家的说法，与官方失业率相比，真实失业率可能更接近这一水平。\n首先，美国劳工统计局暗示真实失业率实际上在16%以上，该局根据家庭调查确定官方利率。劳工统计局表示，许多本应被归类为休假的美国人似乎在调查中被错误归类，从而压低了官方失业率。4月份也发生了同样的错误分类问题，当时劳工统计局表示，真实失业率在19.7%左右。\n但伍德伯里表示，今天的失业率与大萧条时期的失业率之间的相似之处有些“肤浅”。这是因为，目前失业的美国人中有73%是临时裁员或休假。这意味着在2100万失业的美国人中，从技术上来讲，仍有超过1500万人依附于雇主，并预计一旦各州和公司重新开业，这些人就会重返工作岗位。用于计算失业率的美国失业人数与申请失业保险的人数不同。举例来说，并不是所有的失业者都会申请失业保险金。\n\n相对于失业总人口而言，这一临时裁员水平远远超过现代历史上的任何时期（除了4月份，当时这一数字为78%）。在二战以后的时期，最接近的数字是1975年6月份的24.4%。\n“这是现在发生的事情和‘大萧条’期间的一个很大的不同之处。”伍德伯里说道。“这些失业是永久性的。”\n“这些工作失去了，而且一去不复返了。”他说道。\n当然，这些失业岗位中有许多最终可能会是永久性的，这取决于企业倒闭的范围和经济活动重新启动的速度。\n这场危机是自己造成的\n有些经济学家也不相信失业率——如果失业率正式突破20%的话——会像“大萧条”时期那样长时间徘徊在这个水平上。\n“如果失业率在年底以前下降至10%，我想人们会说这是一场真正可怕的衰退，但不会是一场全面的萧条，除非这种情况持续几年时间。”尚博表示。\n\n经济学家称，目前的经济形势与“大萧条”时期不同，原因是其在很大程度上是自己造成的。联邦和州政府官员决定关闭广泛的经济部门以阻止新冠病毒传播，而随着各州和企业开始重新开业，经济可能会迎来反弹。\n尚博表示，相比之下，“大萧条”不是自己造成的，而是许多因素的结果，比如股市崩盘、使用金本位制、通货紧缩以及当时的胡佛政府并没有采取任何真正的财政或货币政策来应对危机等。举例来说，失业保险制度直到1935年才创立以应对“大萧条”。\n做得够多了吗？\n经济学家称，美国政府在“大萧条”的最初几年被打了个措手不及，原因是当时政府还没有像现在这么多可供使用的经济工具。\n这一次，联邦政府官员实施了相对激进的措施，比如为小企业提供各种贷款计划、增加失业救济金以及直接向美国人发钱等，试图避免新冠病毒危机带来进一步的灾难，经济学家说道。\n\n5月份美国非农就业人数增加了250万人，创下了有记录以来最大的增幅，这使得一些专家对经济复苏的速度将会快于之前预期持乐观态度。\n“就我们是否已经做得够多的问题而言，仍有可以争论的空间。”豪斯曼说道。“当你身在其中时，很难判断到了什么阶段。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":904320404,"gmtCreate":1560868141708,"gmtModify":1704700902545,"author":{"id":"3494387386007890","authorId":"3494387386007890","name":"大空投","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494387386007890","idStr":"3494387386007890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$SPY 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