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lindaa
2019-09-12
仓位管理 前两天听了个讲座,如何控制仓位的,和大家共享啦~ 漏斗仓位-每波下降加仓10% 前提:大趋势未来上涨。适用上涨趋势中。 矩形仓位-每次建仓金额固定,将成本确定。 缺点:初期成本较高 金字塔仓位-刚买则涨,但是后期较小比例 第一次建仓30%,第二次加仓20%, 第三次加仓10%。利用趋势持续性增加收益。 缺点:初期投入过大。后期成本摊薄能力弱。 根据行情和大盘走势控制仓位: 轻仓:30%以下 半仓:30%-50% 重仓:50%以上 资金量大的不能重仓!新股民杜绝满仓 四条守则: 1 弱势行情,总仓位不要大于30%。 震荡行情,仓位50%。 强势行情,重仓,尽量不超过70%。 2 购买股票时,单个股票仓位不能大于30%。 3 分批建仓,分批买入。 4 一定不要在下跌过程中,补仓或加仓。 小心大利空消息,控制风险!!! 何时追涨? 盘中强势股~龙头股~涨停股(不建议但收益高风险大)~成功突破的股票~ 不能追涨: 无量空涨~无业绩支撑~上方压力位~仍在下跌形态中~ 追涨设置止损位!!! 追涨不要频烦操作,心态会烦躁。
lindaa
2019-09-04
财报分析最近在看大A财报,共同勉励啦[微笑]股权结构、发行在外股票数量、股东减持、董监高变动、股权质押都是股价潜在风险1. 不能仅看经营指标,如营收、净利、扣非净利。要看同比增长- 扣非净利,扣除非经常损益后净利润,代表公司主营业务。资产处置损失、政府补贴要排除2. 资产负债表- 有的为控股下属公司提供贷款担保,且金额较大。担保公司需要连带还款3. 审计报告- 虚增利润,必会转入资产负债表未分配利润中。比如虚增应收账款、存货或固定资产、其他应收、预付账款等- 和同业比,应收账款突增;与经济周期不符且异常波动- 现金流差,但净利高。如应收账款高,如果能收回则没问题。应付账款已经付出去,如果存货能够较快卖出,则没问题- 大存大贷,存贷双高- &n
lindaa
2019-10-12
美联储的阔表开始啦,据说持续到至少明年二季度[可爱]
lindaa
2019-09-06
$蔚来(NIO)$
非农行情对股市影响不大,不影响大盘的基本趋势。[开心]
lindaa
2019-09-06
$搜狐(SOHU)$
均线理论显示,继续看多搜狐![得意]
lindaa
2019-09-03
靠谱的均线买入技巧(美股和大A皆适用)[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] 均线多头形态:如果5日线在10日线上方,10日线在30日线上方,称为均线多头排列。意味当前市场处于上涨行情,且还将继续上涨的信号。[贱笑] 黄金交叉:是指天数较短的均线上穿天数较长均线,且天数较长的均线也朝右上方运行而组成的交叉形态。如果黄金交叉出现在价格底部区域,往往是由跌转升,由弱转强的买入信号。均线向上交叉坡度越陡,上行信号越强。[梭哈] 若两天均线较短均线出现交叉,但上方有一条周期更长的均线压制,则说明短期看涨,长期还需观察。[晕] 一阳穿多线:股价低位持续横盘整理后,5、10、30日多条均线纠缠在一起,如果出现一根大阳线一举穿越多根均线,说明多方强势集中爆发,这是未来股价持续上涨的信号。[看涨] [美金] [比心]
lindaa
2019-09-08
趋势分析 最近看了一本书《玩转大非农》,有几个点收益颇丰。 1. 非农数据公布前,机构为了盈利最大化,往往在利好数据出台前将价格压到最低,借此迷惑散户买空;消息出台价格大幅拉升。利空数据出台前,将价格抬到最高,迷惑散户买多。消息出台时,价格大幅下跌。因为期货是撮合制嘛,赚的就是小散的钱。此招同样适用于A股盘前竞价几分钟,9:15-9:18分的单可撤销,机构会设个虚高价,小散效仿:实际呢,9:19分的单才是不可撤销、真实的单,此时机构重新下单,小散资金量有限往往此时无法再下单了。 2. 反人性的交易。股价涨时寻找卖点,股价跌时寻找买点。货币政策利好消息一出,股市基本是高开,往往后势是低走,该是高价抛出股票之时。追涨往往被套牢。做美股追涨一阵尚可,做A股只有被套的份现在中国股民大多都是投机居多,没啥价值投资的概念,机构疯狂,游资也是丧心病狂,套现速度极快,可要小心呀 [嘘]
lindaa
2019-08-30
$WTI原油1910(CL1910)$
good
lindaa
2019-10-02
不知美股市场经济衰退的担忧会影响A股多大程度[难过]
lindaa
2019-09-10
加速上涨要来啦,持股待涨~[爱你]
lindaa
2019-09-03
趋势形态之江恩理论周期理论与循环法则:一轮走势中价格高点与地点的时间跨度。[爱你] 适合大盘震荡中的波段操作。[正经] 共振原则:当时间周期中的长中短周期交汇到同一个时间点且方向相同时,将产生向上或向下的共振。[惊讶] 当K线系统、均线系统等技术指标发出相同方向的买入或卖出信号时,将形成技术指标系统的共振点。如,5、10、20日均线的交汇点往往发生一些价格走势的转折,屡试不爽。[财迷] 另外,当金融政策、经济政策、上市公司业绩等多重基本面因素趋于一致,将产生基本面的共振点。[得意]
lindaa
2019-09-03
股价高位逃顶技巧顶量的市场意义:股价顶端必然有大量跟风盘,高位量能的增增减节奏,反映了跟风盘心态变化。如果在高位,量能在连续增加后突现衰退,说明跟风盘跟不上了,这是顶背离的信号。股价大概率到达顶端。如果高位出现高倍量阳线,说明供应量充足,同时也说明主力在高位减仓了,也是大概率顶部信号。
lindaa
03-27
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
美联储鹰鸽齐飞!大鸽派坚守年内降息3次,谨慎派高呼“谨慎”
lindaa
2021-01-27
认准趋势,坚决持有[微笑]
抱歉,原内容已删除
lindaa
2021-01-26
不错
@Raytroninvs:百试不厌,15分钟赚5000的小技巧
lindaa
2019-10-11
最近的贸易谈判是达成了什么货币方面的协议么?
lindaa
2019-10-10
龙头公司在贸易战中非但没有受到打压,反而越发强大,贸易战可以说是一把双刃剑啊[龇牙]
lindaa
2019-10-09
美国对中国的贸易制裁影响力越来越淡,迫使中企越来越重视自主知识产权,高增长业绩也是加分项啊,股价不低反而更高,棒棒哒[爱你]
lindaa
2019-09-25
吊颈线蛮长,如果今晚不能站上昨日高点,考虑减仓啦[爱你]
lindaa
2019-09-15
均线呈现下降趋势,应该暂时没人买了吧
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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12:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储鹰鸽齐飞!大鸽派坚守年内降息3次,谨慎派高呼“谨慎”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422680806","media":"格隆汇","summary":"内部“激辩”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>内部“激辩”</p></blockquote><p>美联储降息在路上,但年内降息三次还是一次?内部官员们的意见分歧正日益凸显。</p><p>当地时间周一(3月25日),多位美联储官员密集发表讲话。</p><p>其中,芝加哥联储主席力争年内降息三次,亚特兰大联储主席则称年内仅一次降息,美联储理事库克强调“不宜过早,不易过晚”,降息应谨慎。</p><p><strong>大鸽派坚守年内降息3次</strong></p><p>“大鸽派”代表、芝加哥联储主席<strong>古尔斯比</strong>预计今年将降息三次。</p><p>古尔斯比称,他的观点与美联储在3月会议上发布的预测中值一致,他的预测位于中间值。</p><p>预测显示,在19 名美联储官员中,有10位官员预计今年至少会有三次降息,有9位官员预测两次或更少,其中两名官员预测根本不会降息。</p><p>当下,市场仍然在押注美联储将在六月启动首次降息,但古尔斯比并未透露降息时间表。</p><blockquote><p>“我们正处于这样一个不明朗时期,需要平衡双重任务。”</p></blockquote><p>对于通胀的未来走势,古尔斯比指出,自去年下半年以来已经出现了快速的“去通胀”进程,虽然数据在今年1月、2月份有一些反覆,但整体上可能没有改变。</p><p>古尔斯比认为,目前的利率水平已经在给经济带来下行压力。去年通胀稳定下降的几个月可能不是“随机的”。</p><blockquote><p>“从历史上看,我们正处于相当严格的区域,当通胀走低时,情况会变得更糟。”</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>“我们处于一个不确定的状态,但我觉得我们并没有从根本上改变我们正在回到目标的情况。”</p></blockquote><p>古尔斯比表示,美联储官员现在需要在央行的双重使命中取得平衡:<strong>稳定物价和就业</strong>。到目前为止,冷却通胀是一个更大的焦点。</p><p>总的来说,古尔斯比与上周美联储主席杰鲍威尔的言论相呼应,即通胀持续下降的总体“情况”没有改变。</p><p>不过,需要关注的是,<strong>古尔斯比今年并不拥有FOMC投票权。</strong></p><p><strong>谨慎派“年内降息一次”</strong></p><p>眼下,美联储年内降息几乎成定局,但对于今年降息的次数,并非所有美联储官员都持相同观点。</p><p>亚特兰大联储主席<strong>博斯蒂克</strong>是今年制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员。</p><p>周一,他再度重申<strong>预计今年只会降息一次</strong>,并警告过早降息可能更具破坏性。</p><blockquote><p>“只要经济强劲,只有GDP高,只要企业在招聘,人们有工作,我就不会急于把通胀率降至2%。如果通胀继续沿着目前的趋势发展,我会感到满意。”</p></blockquote><p>他表示,美国经济和通胀将逐渐放缓。如果经济表现符合预期,则美联储可以保持耐心。</p><p>上周五,博斯蒂克曾预计美联储将在今年稍晚开始降息,首次降息时点可能会比他之前预期的晚一些。</p><p>与此同时,美联储理事<strong>丽莎·库克</strong>也最新表示,央行必须采取谨慎的降息方式,以便为某些经济领域的通胀放缓留出更多时间。</p><blockquote><p>“风险正趋于更好的平衡,但为了全面恢复价格稳定,可能会采取谨慎的方式放松货币政策。”</p></blockquote><p>库克指出,过早降息可能会造成通胀变得根深蒂固的风险,而过晚降息则将不必要地伤害到美国经济。</p><blockquote><p>“正如预期的那样,通货紧缩的道路是崎岖不平的,但谨慎地进一步调整政策可以确保通胀可持续回升至2%,同时努力维持强劲的劳动力市场。”</p></blockquote><p>在3月的议息会议上,美联储连续第五次将利率维持在5.25%-5.5%区间,保持在在二十年来的高位不变。</p><p>当时,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,政策利率可能已达到峰值,在今年某个时候开始放松政策是合适的,但前景不确定,仍然需要关注风险。如有必要,准备在更长时间内保持高利率。</p><p>目前,市场仍正押注美联储在6月进行年内首次降息。</p><p>据CME美联储观察工具显示,6月降息的概率为67%,维持不变的概念为28.5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/974f98b6f2932e0c1ea58a0f1000822d\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>眼下,美联储十分关注的PPI和CPI等通胀数据表明,当前美国通胀依然较为顽固,或需要更长时间才能完全达到目标水平,这也强化了美联储的谨慎态度。</p><p>不过,BMO Capital Markets驻纽约的美国利率策略师Vail Hartman表示,美联储主席鲍威尔上周实际上淡化了2024年初高于趋势的通胀数据所带来的冲击,这加强了对6月份首度降息的预期。</p><p>他认为,美联储在9月和12月也会降息,在上周的政策制定会议之后,市场正逐渐接受这一观点,尽管未来几个月的通胀数据会带来风险。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储鹰鸽齐飞!大鸽派坚守年内降息3次,谨慎派高呼“谨慎”</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储鹰鸽齐飞!大鸽派坚守年内降息3次,谨慎派高呼“谨慎”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-26 12:12 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/711848><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>内部“激辩”美联储降息在路上,但年内降息三次还是一次?内部官员们的意见分歧正日益凸显。当地时间周一(3月25日),多位美联储官员密集发表讲话。其中,芝加哥联储主席力争年内降息三次,亚特兰大联储主席则称年内仅一次降息,美联储理事库克强调“不宜过早,不易过晚”,降息应谨慎。大鸽派坚守年内降息3次“大鸽派”代表、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比预计今年将降息三次。古尔斯比称,他的观点与美联储在3月会议上发布的预测...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/711848\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfb58416a8bfd2c2506a3a2e2db9ad3","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/711848","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2422680806","content_text":"内部“激辩”美联储降息在路上,但年内降息三次还是一次?内部官员们的意见分歧正日益凸显。当地时间周一(3月25日),多位美联储官员密集发表讲话。其中,芝加哥联储主席力争年内降息三次,亚特兰大联储主席则称年内仅一次降息,美联储理事库克强调“不宜过早,不易过晚”,降息应谨慎。大鸽派坚守年内降息3次“大鸽派”代表、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比预计今年将降息三次。古尔斯比称,他的观点与美联储在3月会议上发布的预测中值一致,他的预测位于中间值。预测显示,在19 名美联储官员中,有10位官员预计今年至少会有三次降息,有9位官员预测两次或更少,其中两名官员预测根本不会降息。当下,市场仍然在押注美联储将在六月启动首次降息,但古尔斯比并未透露降息时间表。“我们正处于这样一个不明朗时期,需要平衡双重任务。”对于通胀的未来走势,古尔斯比指出,自去年下半年以来已经出现了快速的“去通胀”进程,虽然数据在今年1月、2月份有一些反覆,但整体上可能没有改变。古尔斯比认为,目前的利率水平已经在给经济带来下行压力。去年通胀稳定下降的几个月可能不是“随机的”。“从历史上看,我们正处于相当严格的区域,当通胀走低时,情况会变得更糟。”“我们处于一个不确定的状态,但我觉得我们并没有从根本上改变我们正在回到目标的情况。”古尔斯比表示,美联储官员现在需要在央行的双重使命中取得平衡:稳定物价和就业。到目前为止,冷却通胀是一个更大的焦点。总的来说,古尔斯比与上周美联储主席杰鲍威尔的言论相呼应,即通胀持续下降的总体“情况”没有改变。不过,需要关注的是,古尔斯比今年并不拥有FOMC投票权。谨慎派“年内降息一次”眼下,美联储年内降息几乎成定局,但对于今年降息的次数,并非所有美联储官员都持相同观点。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克是今年制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员。周一,他再度重申预计今年只会降息一次,并警告过早降息可能更具破坏性。“只要经济强劲,只有GDP高,只要企业在招聘,人们有工作,我就不会急于把通胀率降至2%。如果通胀继续沿着目前的趋势发展,我会感到满意。”他表示,美国经济和通胀将逐渐放缓。如果经济表现符合预期,则美联储可以保持耐心。上周五,博斯蒂克曾预计美联储将在今年稍晚开始降息,首次降息时点可能会比他之前预期的晚一些。与此同时,美联储理事丽莎·库克也最新表示,央行必须采取谨慎的降息方式,以便为某些经济领域的通胀放缓留出更多时间。“风险正趋于更好的平衡,但为了全面恢复价格稳定,可能会采取谨慎的方式放松货币政策。”库克指出,过早降息可能会造成通胀变得根深蒂固的风险,而过晚降息则将不必要地伤害到美国经济。“正如预期的那样,通货紧缩的道路是崎岖不平的,但谨慎地进一步调整政策可以确保通胀可持续回升至2%,同时努力维持强劲的劳动力市场。”在3月的议息会议上,美联储连续第五次将利率维持在5.25%-5.5%区间,保持在在二十年来的高位不变。当时,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,政策利率可能已达到峰值,在今年某个时候开始放松政策是合适的,但前景不确定,仍然需要关注风险。如有必要,准备在更长时间内保持高利率。目前,市场仍正押注美联储在6月进行年内首次降息。据CME美联储观察工具显示,6月降息的概率为67%,维持不变的概念为28.5%。眼下,美联储十分关注的PPI和CPI等通胀数据表明,当前美国通胀依然较为顽固,或需要更长时间才能完全达到目标水平,这也强化了美联储的谨慎态度。不过,BMO Capital Markets驻纽约的美国利率策略师Vail Hartman表示,美联储主席鲍威尔上周实际上淡化了2024年初高于趋势的通胀数据所带来的冲击,这加强了对6月份首度降息的预期。他认为,美联储在9月和12月也会降息,在上周的政策制定会议之后,市场正逐渐接受这一观点,尽管未来几个月的通胀数据会带来风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313246789,"gmtCreate":1611731203441,"gmtModify":1703752701772,"author":{"id":"3494290804627329","authorId":"3494290804627329","name":"lindaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fbe6b016a47b858155e859fa39952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494290804627329","idStr":"3494290804627329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"认准趋势,坚决持有[微笑] ","listText":"认准趋势,坚决持有[微笑] 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>走势不错,而今天的港股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>走的不咋样,那就会有个套利空间,因为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>的期货<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a>白天会被港股带偏了,但是开市前回回归原值。 我们随便买几手$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 期货,然后换汇卖美元,买日元,人民币都行。记住,周期15分钟。 开仓时间3.43 好了,开仓后亏损怎么办?别慌,稳住,让子弹飞一会儿 3分钟后,其中一个绿了 快到15分钟了,换汇还没绿,但是期货盈利已经有2000+,保守的可以平仓了,我们继续等一会儿 57分,2个都绿了,但是我打算4点准时平,稍安勿躁 4点整时的浮赢 简单吧,我很认真的告诉你,只要满足前提条件的情况下,这招是百试不厌的 发这个贴导致我4.11才平仓,盈利反倒没4点的时候多谢...... PS:目前老虎综合账户已开通<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>","listText":"首先有个前提,就是昨天的美股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>走势不错,而今天的港股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>走的不咋样,那就会有个套利空间,因为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>的期货<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a>白天会被港股带偏了,但是开市前回回归原值。 我们随便买几手$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 期货,然后换汇卖美元,买日元,人民币都行。记住,周期15分钟。 开仓时间3.43 好了,开仓后亏损怎么办?别慌,稳住,让子弹飞一会儿 3分钟后,其中一个绿了 快到15分钟了,换汇还没绿,但是期货盈利已经有2000+,保守的可以平仓了,我们继续等一会儿 57分,2个都绿了,但是我打算4点准时平,稍安勿躁 4点整时的浮赢 简单吧,我很认真的告诉你,只要满足前提条件的情况下,这招是百试不厌的 发这个贴导致我4.11才平仓,盈利反倒没4点的时候多谢...... PS:目前老虎综合账户已开通<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>","text":"首先有个前提,就是昨天的美股$标普500(.SPX)$走势不错,而今天的港股$恒生指数(HSI)$走的不咋样,那就会有个套利空间,因为$标普500ETF(SPY)$的期货$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 白天会被港股带偏了,但是开市前回回归原值。 我们随便买几手$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 期货,然后换汇卖美元,买日元,人民币都行。记住,周期15分钟。 开仓时间3.43 好了,开仓后亏损怎么办?别慌,稳住,让子弹飞一会儿 3分钟后,其中一个绿了 快到15分钟了,换汇还没绿,但是期货盈利已经有2000+,保守的可以平仓了,我们继续等一会儿 57分,2个都绿了,但是我打算4点准时平,稍安勿躁 4点整时的浮赢 简单吧,我很认真的告诉你,只要满足前提条件的情况下,这招是百试不厌的 发这个贴导致我4.11才平仓,盈利反倒没4点的时候多谢...... PS:目前老虎综合账户已开通$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 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[嘘]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930916746","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997372306,"gmtCreate":1567173077605,"gmtModify":1704715887491,"author":{"id":"3494290804627329","authorId":"3494290804627329","name":"lindaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fbe6b016a47b858155e859fa39952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494290804627329","authorIdStr":"3494290804627329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL1910\">$WTI原油1910(CL1910)$</a> good","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL1910\">$WTI原油1910(CL1910)$</a> good","text":"$WTI原油1910(CL1910)$ good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c29838a5051746a7c77a10ae3a1433b","width":"1080","height":"1263"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/997372306","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":933403132,"gmtCreate":1570024431526,"gmtModify":1704720320755,"author":{"id":"3494290804627329","authorId":"3494290804627329","name":"lindaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fbe6b016a47b858155e859fa39952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494290804627329","authorIdStr":"3494290804627329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不知美股市场经济衰退的担忧会影响A股多大程度[难过]","listText":"不知美股市场经济衰退的担忧会影响A股多大程度[难过]","text":"不知美股市场经济衰退的担忧会影响A股多大程度[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/933403132","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":930367092,"gmtCreate":1568045640616,"gmtModify":1704717139450,"author":{"id":"3494290804627329","authorId":"3494290804627329","name":"lindaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fbe6b016a47b858155e859fa39952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494290804627329","authorIdStr":"3494290804627329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加速上涨要来啦,持股待涨~[爱你]","listText":"加速上涨要来啦,持股待涨~[爱你]","text":"加速上涨要来啦,持股待涨~[爱你]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c2ea62b86a0f9eedf933dddd1caf6e","width":"750","height":"1893"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930367092","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":997675905,"gmtCreate":1567522862607,"gmtModify":1704716285527,"author":{"id":"3494290804627329","authorId":"3494290804627329","name":"lindaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fbe6b016a47b858155e859fa39952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494290804627329","authorIdStr":"3494290804627329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"趋势形态之江恩理论周期理论与循环法则:一轮走势中价格高点与地点的时间跨度。[爱你] 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12:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储鹰鸽齐飞!大鸽派坚守年内降息3次,谨慎派高呼“谨慎”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422680806","media":"格隆汇","summary":"内部“激辩”","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>内部“激辩”</p></blockquote><p>美联储降息在路上,但年内降息三次还是一次?内部官员们的意见分歧正日益凸显。</p><p>当地时间周一(3月25日),多位美联储官员密集发表讲话。</p><p>其中,芝加哥联储主席力争年内降息三次,亚特兰大联储主席则称年内仅一次降息,美联储理事库克强调“不宜过早,不易过晚”,降息应谨慎。</p><p><strong>大鸽派坚守年内降息3次</strong></p><p>“大鸽派”代表、芝加哥联储主席<strong>古尔斯比</strong>预计今年将降息三次。</p><p>古尔斯比称,他的观点与美联储在3月会议上发布的预测中值一致,他的预测位于中间值。</p><p>预测显示,在19 名美联储官员中,有10位官员预计今年至少会有三次降息,有9位官员预测两次或更少,其中两名官员预测根本不会降息。</p><p>当下,市场仍然在押注美联储将在六月启动首次降息,但古尔斯比并未透露降息时间表。</p><blockquote><p>“我们正处于这样一个不明朗时期,需要平衡双重任务。”</p></blockquote><p>对于通胀的未来走势,古尔斯比指出,自去年下半年以来已经出现了快速的“去通胀”进程,虽然数据在今年1月、2月份有一些反覆,但整体上可能没有改变。</p><p>古尔斯比认为,目前的利率水平已经在给经济带来下行压力。去年通胀稳定下降的几个月可能不是“随机的”。</p><blockquote><p>“从历史上看,我们正处于相当严格的区域,当通胀走低时,情况会变得更糟。”</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>“我们处于一个不确定的状态,但我觉得我们并没有从根本上改变我们正在回到目标的情况。”</p></blockquote><p>古尔斯比表示,美联储官员现在需要在央行的双重使命中取得平衡:<strong>稳定物价和就业</strong>。到目前为止,冷却通胀是一个更大的焦点。</p><p>总的来说,古尔斯比与上周美联储主席杰鲍威尔的言论相呼应,即通胀持续下降的总体“情况”没有改变。</p><p>不过,需要关注的是,<strong>古尔斯比今年并不拥有FOMC投票权。</strong></p><p><strong>谨慎派“年内降息一次”</strong></p><p>眼下,美联储年内降息几乎成定局,但对于今年降息的次数,并非所有美联储官员都持相同观点。</p><p>亚特兰大联储主席<strong>博斯蒂克</strong>是今年制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员。</p><p>周一,他再度重申<strong>预计今年只会降息一次</strong>,并警告过早降息可能更具破坏性。</p><blockquote><p>“只要经济强劲,只有GDP高,只要企业在招聘,人们有工作,我就不会急于把通胀率降至2%。如果通胀继续沿着目前的趋势发展,我会感到满意。”</p></blockquote><p>他表示,美国经济和通胀将逐渐放缓。如果经济表现符合预期,则美联储可以保持耐心。</p><p>上周五,博斯蒂克曾预计美联储将在今年稍晚开始降息,首次降息时点可能会比他之前预期的晚一些。</p><p>与此同时,美联储理事<strong>丽莎·库克</strong>也最新表示,央行必须采取谨慎的降息方式,以便为某些经济领域的通胀放缓留出更多时间。</p><blockquote><p>“风险正趋于更好的平衡,但为了全面恢复价格稳定,可能会采取谨慎的方式放松货币政策。”</p></blockquote><p>库克指出,过早降息可能会造成通胀变得根深蒂固的风险,而过晚降息则将不必要地伤害到美国经济。</p><blockquote><p>“正如预期的那样,通货紧缩的道路是崎岖不平的,但谨慎地进一步调整政策可以确保通胀可持续回升至2%,同时努力维持强劲的劳动力市场。”</p></blockquote><p>在3月的议息会议上,美联储连续第五次将利率维持在5.25%-5.5%区间,保持在在二十年来的高位不变。</p><p>当时,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,政策利率可能已达到峰值,在今年某个时候开始放松政策是合适的,但前景不确定,仍然需要关注风险。如有必要,准备在更长时间内保持高利率。</p><p>目前,市场仍正押注美联储在6月进行年内首次降息。</p><p>据CME美联储观察工具显示,6月降息的概率为67%,维持不变的概念为28.5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/974f98b6f2932e0c1ea58a0f1000822d\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"517\"/></p><p>眼下,美联储十分关注的PPI和CPI等通胀数据表明,当前美国通胀依然较为顽固,或需要更长时间才能完全达到目标水平,这也强化了美联储的谨慎态度。</p><p>不过,BMO Capital Markets驻纽约的美国利率策略师Vail Hartman表示,美联储主席鲍威尔上周实际上淡化了2024年初高于趋势的通胀数据所带来的冲击,这加强了对6月份首度降息的预期。</p><p>他认为,美联储在9月和12月也会降息,在上周的政策制定会议之后,市场正逐渐接受这一观点,尽管未来几个月的通胀数据会带来风险。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储鹰鸽齐飞!大鸽派坚守年内降息3次,谨慎派高呼“谨慎”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储鹰鸽齐飞!大鸽派坚守年内降息3次,谨慎派高呼“谨慎”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-26 12:12 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/711848><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>内部“激辩”美联储降息在路上,但年内降息三次还是一次?内部官员们的意见分歧正日益凸显。当地时间周一(3月25日),多位美联储官员密集发表讲话。其中,芝加哥联储主席力争年内降息三次,亚特兰大联储主席则称年内仅一次降息,美联储理事库克强调“不宜过早,不易过晚”,降息应谨慎。大鸽派坚守年内降息3次“大鸽派”代表、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比预计今年将降息三次。古尔斯比称,他的观点与美联储在3月会议上发布的预测...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/711848\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfb58416a8bfd2c2506a3a2e2db9ad3","relate_stocks":{"SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/711848","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2422680806","content_text":"内部“激辩”美联储降息在路上,但年内降息三次还是一次?内部官员们的意见分歧正日益凸显。当地时间周一(3月25日),多位美联储官员密集发表讲话。其中,芝加哥联储主席力争年内降息三次,亚特兰大联储主席则称年内仅一次降息,美联储理事库克强调“不宜过早,不易过晚”,降息应谨慎。大鸽派坚守年内降息3次“大鸽派”代表、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比预计今年将降息三次。古尔斯比称,他的观点与美联储在3月会议上发布的预测中值一致,他的预测位于中间值。预测显示,在19 名美联储官员中,有10位官员预计今年至少会有三次降息,有9位官员预测两次或更少,其中两名官员预测根本不会降息。当下,市场仍然在押注美联储将在六月启动首次降息,但古尔斯比并未透露降息时间表。“我们正处于这样一个不明朗时期,需要平衡双重任务。”对于通胀的未来走势,古尔斯比指出,自去年下半年以来已经出现了快速的“去通胀”进程,虽然数据在今年1月、2月份有一些反覆,但整体上可能没有改变。古尔斯比认为,目前的利率水平已经在给经济带来下行压力。去年通胀稳定下降的几个月可能不是“随机的”。“从历史上看,我们正处于相当严格的区域,当通胀走低时,情况会变得更糟。”“我们处于一个不确定的状态,但我觉得我们并没有从根本上改变我们正在回到目标的情况。”古尔斯比表示,美联储官员现在需要在央行的双重使命中取得平衡:稳定物价和就业。到目前为止,冷却通胀是一个更大的焦点。总的来说,古尔斯比与上周美联储主席杰鲍威尔的言论相呼应,即通胀持续下降的总体“情况”没有改变。不过,需要关注的是,古尔斯比今年并不拥有FOMC投票权。谨慎派“年内降息一次”眼下,美联储年内降息几乎成定局,但对于今年降息的次数,并非所有美联储官员都持相同观点。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克是今年制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员。周一,他再度重申预计今年只会降息一次,并警告过早降息可能更具破坏性。“只要经济强劲,只有GDP高,只要企业在招聘,人们有工作,我就不会急于把通胀率降至2%。如果通胀继续沿着目前的趋势发展,我会感到满意。”他表示,美国经济和通胀将逐渐放缓。如果经济表现符合预期,则美联储可以保持耐心。上周五,博斯蒂克曾预计美联储将在今年稍晚开始降息,首次降息时点可能会比他之前预期的晚一些。与此同时,美联储理事丽莎·库克也最新表示,央行必须采取谨慎的降息方式,以便为某些经济领域的通胀放缓留出更多时间。“风险正趋于更好的平衡,但为了全面恢复价格稳定,可能会采取谨慎的方式放松货币政策。”库克指出,过早降息可能会造成通胀变得根深蒂固的风险,而过晚降息则将不必要地伤害到美国经济。“正如预期的那样,通货紧缩的道路是崎岖不平的,但谨慎地进一步调整政策可以确保通胀可持续回升至2%,同时努力维持强劲的劳动力市场。”在3月的议息会议上,美联储连续第五次将利率维持在5.25%-5.5%区间,保持在在二十年来的高位不变。当时,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,政策利率可能已达到峰值,在今年某个时候开始放松政策是合适的,但前景不确定,仍然需要关注风险。如有必要,准备在更长时间内保持高利率。目前,市场仍正押注美联储在6月进行年内首次降息。据CME美联储观察工具显示,6月降息的概率为67%,维持不变的概念为28.5%。眼下,美联储十分关注的PPI和CPI等通胀数据表明,当前美国通胀依然较为顽固,或需要更长时间才能完全达到目标水平,这也强化了美联储的谨慎态度。不过,BMO Capital Markets驻纽约的美国利率策略师Vail Hartman表示,美联储主席鲍威尔上周实际上淡化了2024年初高于趋势的通胀数据所带来的冲击,这加强了对6月份首度降息的预期。他认为,美联储在9月和12月也会降息,在上周的政策制定会议之后,市场正逐渐接受这一观点,尽管未来几个月的通胀数据会带来风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313246789,"gmtCreate":1611731203441,"gmtModify":1703752701772,"author":{"id":"3494290804627329","authorId":"3494290804627329","name":"lindaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fbe6b016a47b858155e859fa39952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494290804627329","authorIdStr":"3494290804627329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"认准趋势,坚决持有[微笑] ","listText":"认准趋势,坚决持有[微笑] ","text":"认准趋势,坚决持有[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313246789","repostId":"1161543959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319787769,"gmtCreate":1611624121451,"gmtModify":1703751679239,"author":{"id":"3494290804627329","authorId":"3494290804627329","name":"lindaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4fbe6b016a47b858155e859fa39952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494290804627329","authorIdStr":"3494290804627329"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319787769","repostId":"310884513","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":310884513,"gmtCreate":1611306867332,"gmtModify":1703749571002,"author":{"id":"3539164066154947","authorId":"3539164066154947","name":"Raytroninvs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ea6a08d0b146942ea8bfde8d243755","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539164066154947","authorIdStr":"3539164066154947"},"themes":[],"title":"百试不厌,15分钟赚5000的小技巧","htmlText":"首先有个前提,就是昨天的美股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>走势不错,而今天的港股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>走的不咋样,那就会有个套利空间,因为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>的期货<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a>白天会被港股带偏了,但是开市前回回归原值。 我们随便买几手$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 期货,然后换汇卖美元,买日元,人民币都行。记住,周期15分钟。 开仓时间3.43 好了,开仓后亏损怎么办?别慌,稳住,让子弹飞一会儿 3分钟后,其中一个绿了 快到15分钟了,换汇还没绿,但是期货盈利已经有2000+,保守的可以平仓了,我们继续等一会儿 57分,2个都绿了,但是我打算4点准时平,稍安勿躁 4点整时的浮赢 简单吧,我很认真的告诉你,只要满足前提条件的情况下,这招是百试不厌的 发这个贴导致我4.11才平仓,盈利反倒没4点的时候多谢...... PS:目前老虎综合账户已开通<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>","listText":"首先有个前提,就是昨天的美股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>走势不错,而今天的港股<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>走的不咋样,那就会有个套利空间,因为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>的期货<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a>白天会被港股带偏了,但是开市前回回归原值。 我们随便买几手$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 期货,然后换汇卖美元,买日元,人民币都行。记住,周期15分钟。 开仓时间3.43 好了,开仓后亏损怎么办?别慌,稳住,让子弹飞一会儿 3分钟后,其中一个绿了 快到15分钟了,换汇还没绿,但是期货盈利已经有2000+,保守的可以平仓了,我们继续等一会儿 57分,2个都绿了,但是我打算4点准时平,稍安勿躁 4点整时的浮赢 简单吧,我很认真的告诉你,只要满足前提条件的情况下,这招是百试不厌的 发这个贴导致我4.11才平仓,盈利反倒没4点的时候多谢...... PS:目前老虎综合账户已开通<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a>","text":"首先有个前提,就是昨天的美股$标普500(.SPX)$走势不错,而今天的港股$恒生指数(HSI)$走的不咋样,那就会有个套利空间,因为$标普500ETF(SPY)$的期货$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 白天会被港股带偏了,但是开市前回回归原值。 我们随便买几手$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 期货,然后换汇卖美元,买日元,人民币都行。记住,周期15分钟。 开仓时间3.43 好了,开仓后亏损怎么办?别慌,稳住,让子弹飞一会儿 3分钟后,其中一个绿了 快到15分钟了,换汇还没绿,但是期货盈利已经有2000+,保守的可以平仓了,我们继续等一会儿 57分,2个都绿了,但是我打算4点准时平,稍安勿躁 4点整时的浮赢 简单吧,我很认真的告诉你,只要满足前提条件的情况下,这招是百试不厌的 发这个贴导致我4.11才平仓,盈利反倒没4点的时候多谢...... PS:目前老虎综合账户已开通$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 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