野牛满山跑的个人主页 - 老虎社区

野牛满山跑

野牛满山跑

人要是没有梦想，与咸鱼有什么区别呢？

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野牛满山跑

2020-01-17

$微博(WB)$ 为毛大跌？

野牛满山跑

2019-12-13

$赛灵思(XLNX)$ 好像卖错了-_-||

野牛满山跑

2019-12-10

怎么突然拉红了

野牛满山跑

2019-12-03

$BIDU 20191206 115.0 CALL(BIDU)$ 还能跌？

野牛满山跑

2019-12-03

$AEM 20200117 60.0 PUT(AEM)$ 还能涨？

野牛满山跑

2019-12-03

$AAPL 20191206 265.0 PUT(AAPL)$ 搞了个超短线，一会儿卖球了

野牛满山跑

2019-11-26

$LK 20200320 19.0 PUT(LK)$ 试试看

野牛满山跑

2019-11-25

不太看好转化率，砸了很多钱，效果应该不如预期

@美股研究社:拼多多的拐点到了

野牛满山跑

2019-11-22

以前被人说得神乎其神的……

野牛满山跑

2019-11-20

$拼多多(PDD)$ 嗯，方向对了，量不太足[捂脸] [捂脸]

野牛满山跑

2019-11-14

$微博(WB)$ 哎呀，看来是真不行了[捂脸] call变废纸了

野牛满山跑

2019-11-12

$微博(WB)$ 我还是看好微博，毕竟你可以在上班、开会的时候刷微博，却不能刷短视频[捂脸] [捂脸]

野牛满山跑

2019-11-08

$PDD 20200417 34.0 PUT(PDD)$ 拼多多这公司是有价值的，但有价值不代表能一直涨。个人感觉现在估值过高了，搞什么补贴确实会带来更多的gmv，但没太大意义，因为很多人只是为红包而来，并不会用这个，转化率很一般的。始建空仓，财报后若再涨，加仓。

野牛满山跑

2019-11-08

$百度(BIDU)$ 好牛逼，卖早了(ﾟДﾟ)ﾉ

野牛满山跑

2019-11-07

$BIDU 20191108 105.0 CALL(BIDU)$ 可以了

野牛满山跑

2019-11-05

$BIDU 20191108 105.0 CALL(BIDU)$ 能一鼓作气站上120不？[胜利]

野牛满山跑

2019-11-02

$拼多多(PDD)$ 继续涨，多涨点，不涨没机会

野牛满山跑

2019-11-02

$百度(BIDU)$ 我相信百度会好起来的[可爱]

野牛满山跑

2019-10-21

$Snap Inc(SNAP)$ 这波动率太高了[惊讶]

野牛满山跑

2019-10-14

腾讯压拼多多？他们有多少竞争……如果说淘宝京东压可能更有说服力

@酸菜余:$拼多多(PDD)$ 大利好，腾讯终于退出了，从此多多将凤翔九天，一飞冲天！！！！！

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20191206 265.0 PUT(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;搞了个超短线，一会儿卖球了","text":"$AAPL 20191206 265.0 PUT(AAPL)$ 搞了个超短线，一会儿卖球了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2174af0f75170f75d226a6fe18304b3c","width":"1080","height":"1579"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937794829","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937943030,"gmtCreate":1574724578920,"gmtModify":1704728365304,"author":{"id":"3494285043028558","authorId":"3494285043028558","name":"野牛满山跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7614100a385e2bbca33e78b5e0491a2c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$LK 20200320 19.0 PUT(LK)$</a>&nbsp;试试看","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$LK 20200320 19.0 PUT(LK)$</a>&nbsp;试试看","text":"$LK 20200320 19.0 PUT(LK)$ 试试看","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43ad39246fe96d09a4787b4ddac5a7f2","width":"1080","height":"1579"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937943030","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937072811,"gmtCreate":1574681077133,"gmtModify":1704728262774,"author":{"id":"3494285043028558","authorId":"3494285043028558","name":"野牛满山跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7614100a385e2bbca33e78b5e0491a2c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不太看好转化率，砸了很多钱，效果应该不如预期","listText":"不太看好转化率，砸了很多钱，效果应该不如预期","text":"不太看好转化率，砸了很多钱，效果应该不如预期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937072811","repostId":"937045519","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":937045519,"gmtCreate":1574676975631,"gmtModify":1704728253451,"author":{"id":"3503452965237041","authorId":"3503452965237041","name":"美股研究社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a239c7906133df1f3817d0746a8a0ba1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"拼多多的拐点到了","htmlText":"最近好多人问我「现在能不能抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>&nbsp;？」，估值本来是一门艺术，这个其实很难说得清楚，不过我之前有个理论，那就是财报暴雷的公司，下一份财报前最好别持有，这个准确率超过80%以上。 就拼多多而言，四季度财报可能会大概率继续暴雷，所以最佳抄底时间可能还是明年二月份。关于拼多多Q3财报的分析，我就不多说了，网上可以找到一大堆，既有看好的，也有看空的。我大致整理了一下多空双方的观点。 多头认为拼多多新用户大幅增长，第三季度，拼多多年活跃买家数达5.363亿，同比净增1.508亿，较上一季度的4.832亿净增5310万，创上市以来最大单季增长。活跃买家数的增长有助于拼多多形成规模效应，亏损变多那只是关于未来的战略性布局，只要拼多多努力提高用户黏性，把活跃用户转化为深度用户。假以时日，当拼多多的黏性可以达到如淘宝般的黏性，那拼多多盈利绝对是分分钟的事情。 空头则认为百亿补贴是一把双刃剑，拼多多Q3在市场营销上花费了69亿元，而收入仅有75亿元，亏损扩大至23亿元，季度获客成本为108.63元，高于上季度的80元，为拼多多历史上处第三高位置。在盈利能力上，拼多多和阿里、京东的差距异常悬殊。综合来看，各项指标增速放缓，营收不及预期，亏损幅度扩大，导致拼多多股价在财报发布后遇挫。 这些观点其实都没问题，从不同角度看拼多多，那看到的问题肯定不一样，多头是看到了增长，空头则更加关注变现，双方由此产生了极大的判断误差，这也是拼多多财报当天暴跌22%之后，接下来两个交易日会出现反弹的重要原因。 但现阶段的一系列线索都表明，短期内拼多多进入了一个拐点。我从一份国际投资银行的研报中，获取了拼多多2018Q1-2018Q4时间段内的单季度GMV：661.88亿元、82","listText":"最近好多人问我「现在能不能抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>&nbsp;？」，估值本来是一门艺术，这个其实很难说得清楚，不过我之前有个理论，那就是财报暴雷的公司，下一份财报前最好别持有，这个准确率超过80%以上。 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于是又找出来看了看，看完之后，还是没明白写的啥玩意儿[捂脸] ，就一个感觉：乱。 但我还是想搞懂好在哪里。于是开始联想，故事的大背景事五代十国时期，这个时期的中国也刘一个字：乱。大概与南北朝时期差不多吧，乱出了水平，乱出了高度。夜宴里面的关系很乱，老子抢儿子相好，弟弟杀哥哥，儿子又要给老子报仇，女的想当皇帝，大臣却想玩儿螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后的把戏……还有就是狠，招招致命，不留余地……最后死完了，特别是当婉后作为最后的胜利者，正在总结成功经验时，却又被人从背后一剑毙命，而是谁刺的这一剑则始终没有展示出来。 其实，这一剑并不是某个人刺的，是时代刺的，在那个天下大乱的时代，没有谁是安全的，也没有谁是胜利者，都是时代的齑粉。夜宴通过对一场普通的宫廷争斗，将整个天下的混沌不堪展现得淋漓尽致，这大概就是这部电影为啥有人叫好的原因吧😄 虽然冯导可能并不是这个意思[笑哭] <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a>","listText":"《夜宴》是一部很老的电影了，刚出来时好像就看过，但没看懂，不知道写的是什么玩意儿。前几天有人说这个片子不错[生气] 于是又找出来看了看，看完之后，还是没明白写的啥玩意儿[捂脸] ，就一个感觉：乱。 但我还是想搞懂好在哪里。于是开始联想，故事的大背景事五代十国时期，这个时期的中国也刘一个字：乱。大概与南北朝时期差不多吧，乱出了水平，乱出了高度。夜宴里面的关系很乱，老子抢儿子相好，弟弟杀哥哥，儿子又要给老子报仇，女的想当皇帝，大臣却想玩儿螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后的把戏……还有就是狠，招招致命，不留余地……最后死完了，特别是当婉后作为最后的胜利者，正在总结成功经验时，却又被人从背后一剑毙命，而是谁刺的这一剑则始终没有展示出来。 其实，这一剑并不是某个人刺的，是时代刺的，在那个天下大乱的时代，没有谁是安全的，也没有谁是胜利者，都是时代的齑粉。夜宴通过对一场普通的宫廷争斗，将整个天下的混沌不堪展现得淋漓尽致，这大概就是这部电影为啥有人叫好的原因吧😄 虽然冯导可能并不是这个意思[笑哭] <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">$Square, Inc(SQ)$</a>","text":"《夜宴》是一部很老的电影了，刚出来时好像就看过，但没看懂，不知道写的是什么玩意儿。前几天有人说这个片子不错[生气] 于是又找出来看了看，看完之后，还是没明白写的啥玩意儿[捂脸] ，就一个感觉：乱。 但我还是想搞懂好在哪里。于是开始联想，故事的大背景事五代十国时期，这个时期的中国也刘一个字：乱。大概与南北朝时期差不多吧，乱出了水平，乱出了高度。夜宴里面的关系很乱，老子抢儿子相好，弟弟杀哥哥，儿子又要给老子报仇，女的想当皇帝，大臣却想玩儿螳螂捕蝉黄雀在后的把戏……还有就是狠，招招致命，不留余地……最后死完了，特别是当婉后作为最后的胜利者，正在总结成功经验时，却又被人从背后一剑毙命，而是谁刺的这一剑则始终没有展示出来。 其实，这一剑并不是某个人刺的，是时代刺的，在那个天下大乱的时代，没有谁是安全的，也没有谁是胜利者，都是时代的齑粉。夜宴通过对一场普通的宫廷争斗，将整个天下的混沌不堪展现得淋漓尽致，这大概就是这部电影为啥有人叫好的原因吧😄 虽然冯导可能并不是这个意思[笑哭] $Sea Ltd(SE)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $Square, Inc(SQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930039633","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3457743143692566","authorId":"3457743143692566","name":"A股专家","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/25d876402fe8c54ea3bb873eaebfa56d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这种电影就是导演装逼，堆砌一大堆的场面，实际上想要表达什么东西估计他自己都不知道。","text":"这种电影就是导演装逼，堆砌一大堆的场面，实际上想要表达什么东西估计他自己都不知道。","html":"这种电影就是导演装逼，堆砌一大堆的场面，实际上想要表达什么东西估计他自己都不知道。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991077194,"gmtCreate":1564452410718,"gmtModify":1704707125085,"author":{"id":"3494285043028558","authorId":"3494285043028558","name":"野牛满山跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7614100a385e2bbca33e78b5e0491a2c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat 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公司增发，说明这个价格不低了，当然为了增发，短期应该不会跌哪儿去，甚至会继续创新高，不过，真的感觉快到头了，虽然比麻姐有支撑，但这个价格我觉得太高了，会回去的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991077194","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3508328730555318","authorId":"3508328730555318","name":"NoGo寻常路","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"没有机构下调评级或者唱空，感觉跌幅很有限","text":"没有机构下调评级或者唱空，感觉跌幅很有限","html":"没有机构下调评级或者唱空，感觉跌幅很有限"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991067284,"gmtCreate":1564414872348,"gmtModify":1704707071082,"author":{"id":"3494285043028558","authorId":"3494285043028558","name":"野牛满山跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7614100a385e2bbca33e78b5e0491a2c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$</a>&nbsp;其实，看空的，看多的都是赌，一堆堆分析不过是事后给自己找做多做空的理由，又有几人真正了解这个公司，又有谁能确切的知道盘后如何😄自己怎么看，就怎么上，然后坐等结果","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\">$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$</a>&nbsp;其实，看空的，看多的都是赌，一堆堆分析不过是事后给自己找做多做空的理由，又有几人真正了解这个公司，又有谁能确切的知道盘后如何😄自己怎么看，就怎么上，然后坐等结果","text":"$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 其实，看空的，看多的都是赌，一堆堆分析不过是事后给自己找做多做空的理由，又有几人真正了解这个公司，又有谁能确切的知道盘后如何😄自己怎么看，就怎么上，然后坐等结果","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991067284","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335325,"gmtCreate":1542698767827,"gmtModify":1704781388980,"author":{"id":"3494285043028558","authorId":"3494285043028558","name":"野牛满山跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7614100a385e2bbca33e78b5e0491a2c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来汽车(NIO)$ 总体感觉呢，现在这个社会真的是过度营销了，其实是让人很反感的，比如去理个发，很简单的一个事情，结果理发店的要一直跟你BB推销这个项目，推销那个项目的，就安安静静地把头发剪好不行吗？所以，个人觉得，无论什么东西最终还是要回归本源，无论什么新概念、新势力，首先还是要产品本身品质过硬，然后再去讲服务，不然，就算你短期风头无两，哪有怎样呢？注定是无法持续下去的。慢慢来吧，或许以后真的很牛逼，但如果现在就过多地进行了透支，很快也会回归的。PUT","listText":"$蔚来汽车(NIO)$ 总体感觉呢，现在这个社会真的是过度营销了，其实是让人很反感的，比如去理个发，很简单的一个事情，结果理发店的要一直跟你BB推销这个项目，推销那个项目的，就安安静静地把头发剪好不行吗？所以，个人觉得，无论什么东西最终还是要回归本源，无论什么新概念、新势力，首先还是要产品本身品质过硬，然后再去讲服务，不然，就算你短期风头无两，哪有怎样呢？注定是无法持续下去的。慢慢来吧，或许以后真的很牛逼，但如果现在就过多地进行了透支，很快也会回归的。PUT","text":"$蔚来汽车(NIO)$ 总体感觉呢，现在这个社会真的是过度营销了，其实是让人很反感的，比如去理个发，很简单的一个事情，结果理发店的要一直跟你BB推销这个项目，推销那个项目的，就安安静静地把头发剪好不行吗？所以，个人觉得，无论什么东西最终还是要回归本源，无论什么新概念、新势力，首先还是要产品本身品质过硬，然后再去讲服务，不然，就算你短期风头无两，哪有怎样呢？注定是无法持续下去的。慢慢来吧，或许以后真的很牛逼，但如果现在就过多地进行了透支，很快也会回归的。PUT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335325","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501234381097483","authorId":"3501234381097483","name":"谜之爱心茶桶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"车硬件比同价位的车型高出好几个档次，车主和试驾过的基本都是一面倒的好评，如果你只是看了38号那货的视频，我建议你还是别轻易做空，那家伙就只是不接受电动车而已，说的很多观点都是夸大其词和故意抹黑","text":"车硬件比同价位的车型高出好几个档次，车主和试驾过的基本都是一面倒的好评，如果你只是看了38号那货的视频，我建议你还是别轻易做空，那家伙就只是不接受电动车而已，说的很多观点都是夸大其词和故意抹黑","html":"车硬件比同价位的车型高出好几个档次，车主和试驾过的基本都是一面倒的好评，如果你只是看了38号那货的视频，我建议你还是别轻易做空，那家伙就只是不接受电动车而已，说的很多观点都是夸大其词和故意抹黑"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323769,"gmtCreate":1541450652828,"gmtModify":1704779867955,"author":{"id":"3494285043028558","authorId":"3494285043028558","name":"野牛满山跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7614100a385e2bbca33e78b5e0491a2c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来汽车(NIO)$一半call,一半put，看看结果如何。个人觉得财报不好。","listText":"$蔚来汽车(NIO)$一半call,一半put，看看结果如何。个人觉得财报不好。","text":"$蔚来汽车(NIO)$一半call,一半put，看看结果如何。个人觉得财报不好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323769","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"29169513586800","authorId":"29169513586800","name":"这样才好吃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02405467b4164cf952e0b82fd31562cc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"好不好不知道 太多人集中看好，就感觉非常糟糕了，一样的配方，割韭菜的味道 这钱不敢赚 各位坐稳祝你们发财","text":"好不好不知道 太多人集中看好，就感觉非常糟糕了，一样的配方，割韭菜的味道 这钱不敢赚 各位坐稳祝你们发财","html":"好不好不知道 太多人集中看好，就感觉非常糟糕了，一样的配方，割韭菜的味道 这钱不敢赚 各位坐稳祝你们发财"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995409744,"gmtCreate":1566257910688,"gmtModify":1704713944604,"author":{"id":"3494285043028558","authorId":"3494285043028558","name":"野牛满山跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7614100a385e2bbca33e78b5e0491a2c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$BIDU 20191018 120.0 CALL(BIDU)$</a>&nbsp;财报也不咋好，只是大家的预期更糟，所以涨了，涨了就好😄","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$BIDU 20191018 120.0 CALL(BIDU)$</a>&nbsp;财报也不咋好，只是大家的预期更糟，所以涨了，涨了就好😄","text":"$BIDU 20191018 120.0 CALL(BIDU)$ 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