勇闯天涯者的个人主页 - 老虎社区

勇闯天涯者

勇闯天涯者

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IP属地：山东

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勇闯天涯者

2021-01-22

$浙江世宝(01057)$还是港股好！a股都跌停见了，它却坚挺

勇闯天涯者

2021-01-21

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$创历史新高，最晚到2021年底！坚定持有！

勇闯天涯者

2021-01-15

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$祝早日退市！

勇闯天涯者

2021-01-12

$瑞丽医美(02135)$耐心持有，终会美丽[微笑]

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-29

$五菱汽车(00305)$一个小时不到，暴跌66%🐮

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-28

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$创新高？

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-28

它们不是按制造业估值，都成了科技范

复盘新能源汽车2020年！估值“超前”的他们驶向何方？

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-24

$瑞丽医美(02135)$祝愿大家都中签！[财迷]

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@勇闯天涯者:$蓝月亮集团(06993)$建议凡是中签的都送两套新年挂历！！！！支持的点赞

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-15

$蓝月亮集团(06993)$建议凡是中签的都送两套新年挂历！！！！支持的点赞

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-15

$蓝月亮集团(06993)$撤销不了，也不成交？

勇闯天涯者

2020-12-11

$五菱汽车(00305)$利好出来，可以先离开了

勇闯天涯者

2020-11-20

$五菱汽车(00305)$虽然不是整车，起码是汽车配件吧！锁仓持有！

勇闯天涯者

2020-11-03

枪打出头鸟！

抱歉，原内容已删除

勇闯天涯者

2020-09-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$连续跌十天！完美！

勇闯天涯者

2020-07-30

利好！

美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，好于预期

勇闯天涯者

2020-07-30

收盘涨幅70%.

@小虎活动:猜理想汽车首日涨跌幅，赢66虎币！

勇闯天涯者

2020-07-29

$柯达(KODK)$最刺激的过山车[财迷] [流泪]

勇闯天涯者

2020-07-24

$中芯国际(00981)$26.7焊住！！！

勇闯天涯者

2020-07-17

两家公司都被高估了，等待价值回归！

中芯顶 VS茅台底，站哪边？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"复盘新能源汽车2020年！估值“超前”的他们驶向何方？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110365424","media":"美股研究社","summary":"“卖车”只是新能源造车们的初级目标，软硬件生态价值最大化是终局？\n\n2020年，一场突如其来的疫情打乱了所有人的节奏，但新能源汽车板块却完成了一次逆势“跑赢”。\n回顾全年，国内汽车市场的销量同比一度下","content":"<blockquote>\n “卖车”只是新能源造车们的初级目标，软硬件生态价值最大化是终局？\n</blockquote>\n<p>2020年，一场突如其来的疫情打乱了所有人的节奏，但新能源汽车板块却完成了一次逆势“跑赢”。</p>\n<p>回顾全年，国内汽车市场的销量同比一度下跌近80%。而在今年二至四季度，销量反弹回升，已连续5个月销量超越去年同期。纯电汽车市场销量反弹速度更快，9月-11月纯电汽车销量同比上升幅度都在50%以上，11月销量达到14.4万辆。</p>\n<p>在这些逐渐改善的销量数据背后，哪家车企业绩表现最好？明年的新能源汽车板块将会如何？美股研究社将盘点车企今年最新的业绩，站在行业角度回顾今年，并前瞻未来新能源汽车可能的发展方向。</p>\n<p><b>站在黄金赛道起点</b></p>\n<p><b>估值却已跑在前面</b></p>\n<p>2020年，国内三家造车新势力都在逐渐走出疯狂烧钱的阶段，它们的造血能力已有初步显现。赛道龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>目前仍跑在前方，连续五个季度实现了盈利。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27e1624222a6956732b58a5403203dc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\"></p>\n<p>具体看各自的财务状况，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>第三季度营收为87.7亿美元，营收规模处于领先地位。而国内造车“三杰”中，营收规模从高至低则是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想和小鹏。去年至今，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>一直处于首位，而理想则实现了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>的超越，跃居第二位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397be86ccd422d7b8755316fd6223fc3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"258\"></p>\n<p>今年，毛利率成为各家CEO口中提及最多的关键词之一。截至今年三季度，特斯拉以超过20%的毛利率位居第一。“三杰”中毛利率最高的是理想，为19.8%。其次是蔚来12.9%，小鹏4.6%。三家造车新势力都迈过毛利率转正这道坎。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5972703401275691ad67dc113fe08abe\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"262\"></p>\n<p>净利润方面，特斯拉最新季度录得盈利3.31亿美元，而“三杰”仍在亏损。蔚来由于体量更大，因此在三者中亏损金额最大。</p>\n<p>最后来看销量，特斯拉成为今年的销量之王，前三季度累计达万辆，蔚来、理想和小鹏则次之。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdf86b7eeb7214fd2af51979c4263da4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"216\"></p>\n<p>（图源未来汽车日报&nbsp;）</p>\n<p>整体来看，这四家新能源代表车企的综合表现都在不断改善。加上新能源汽车市场潜在的想象空间，让新能源板块的估值已经走在业绩的前面。</p>\n<p>特斯拉今年累涨超676%，市值约为6160亿美元；蔚来累涨超1117%，市值约768亿美元；理想累涨185%，市值约294亿美元；小鹏累涨213%，市值约371亿美元。</p>\n<p>今年这些代表车企的排名也在不断提升。特斯拉2019年时在全球车企中排名第三，今年已跃居第一，超过排名第二至第五车企市值之和。蔚来、小鹏和理想，分别位列第5、14、16位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b52d0204c7a50cc5694d50b364bfb4\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"564\"></p>\n<p>可以发现的是，今年新能源车企给整个汽车行业注入了新鲜的血液，扮演着愈加重要的角色。在它们市值提升的背后，吸引的是投资机构们持续地买入。</p>\n<p>特斯拉成为ARK基金头号重仓股，在其下跌时多次出手增持；截至今年三季度，高瓴资本入手了“三杰”，总价值约9862万美元。美国最大公共养老金CalPERS在最新报告表示，对蔚来和特斯拉进行了加仓。另外，加拿大养老金也在同时期大幅加仓蔚来。</p>\n<p><b>复盘汽车行业周期</b></p>\n<p><b>新能源汽车仍在起步阶段</b></p>\n<p>它们仅是买入这一板块的机构中较小部分，实际远远不止。也正因如此，我们今年见识到该板块股票的疯狂，股价急速上升再急速下降，市场情绪成为左右股价的重要因素。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361958eb4fa59c0b0e8aeac5c8ba0a0c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"368\"></p>\n<p>2020年即将过去，在疯狂成为历史之后，对于明年以及长远的展望显得更为重要。可以试着站在行业周期角度去审视新能源汽车，从而做出理智的判断。</p>\n<p>当前，汽车销售一直是新能源车企的绝大部分营收来源，因此仍然可用汽车行业周期去解释新能源汽车的发展阶段。加上该行业本身的周期性较强，可将单月销量以及库存的同比增速作为衡量行业发展的参考指标之一。</p>\n<p>数据显示，目前国内汽车销量的单月同比增速已连续6个月为正，而近3个月库存同比依然为负值。因此，当下国内汽车行业可能处于周期起点的复苏阶段。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b28b7fb7841cdd7923fd757ad10b54\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"383\">图表：中国乘用车单月同比</p>\n<p>若除去2020年疫情的影响，从图中不难发现，其实单月销量同比在去年8月至12月期间，已经从下滑收窄转向接近持平。</p>\n<p>但是，2020年初需求和生产同时受到冲击，使得销量和库存同比增速再度调转向下。最终，在今年3月形成了上一轮行业周期的底部，同时是新一轮周期的起点。</p>\n<p>具体到新能源乘用车，11月零售销量为16.9万辆，同比增长136.5%，环比增长26.8%，连续5个月实现正增长。这直接反映出，新能源乘用车不久前开始了上行周期。</p>\n<p>这也能解释为何今年股价受市场情绪主导而涨幅较大，其实正好为复苏阶段的特点。在这一阶段，相关公司的股价会经历快速的上涨。主要是估值在推动着股价，反映着上市公司以后成长阶段的经营表现。</p>\n<p>放眼未来，待2021年销量和库存都同比转正，告别复苏并进入成长期后，估值反而越难以成为股价的推动因素。</p>\n<p>发展较早的特斯拉将是一个典型的例子。其目前连续五个季度实现盈利，未来资本市场会把持续稳定的盈利能力作为考量它的指标，以此评判其长期的投资价值。</p>\n<p>因此，参考汽车行业过去的表现，复苏阶段下市场过度的热情会逐渐平复。短期内，蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的新能源车企，将会随着盈利能力逐渐改善而修复今年的高估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504dfc9f02b2213ad422e0a7db63a353\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\">图表：中国汽车周期</p>\n<p>长期来看，在估值也就是市场情绪被消化后，公司业绩的增长可能会成为推动市值增加的主要因素。而投资者更多享受的是业绩增长带来的股价回报。</p>\n<p>在这样的背景下，蔚来、小鹏、理想等国内新能源车企们谁能率先实现盈利，或许会更受到资本市场的青睐。如何能够创造长期价值，是车企需要思考的问题。</p>\n<p><b>“卖车”只是新能源造车们的初级目标</b></p>\n<p><b>软硬件生态价值最大化是终局？</b></p>\n<p>随着新能源汽车产销量的提高，渗透进民众的出行中，新能源汽车行业的商业逻辑已经悄然发生变化。有别于传统的汽车行业，新能源汽车行业在尝试着，跑出不同于前者的成长曲线。</p>\n<p>新能源车企除了汽车销售收入，正在开辟新的增长点。近期有消息称，特斯拉正在缩短“完全自动驾驶”软件订阅服务的推出时间，这个按月付费的订阅计划将于明年年初发布。</p>\n<p>不难想象，特斯拉设计通过软件来启用汽车的内置功能，解决方案似乎是一种“订阅即服务”的业务模型。</p>\n<p>三季度，蔚来推出BaaS电池服务模式，实现车电分离，同样是按月支付服务费用即可。李斌在电话会议上表示，自推出BaaS电池服务模式后，BaaS的使用率每个星期都在增长。整个11月，就有35％的用户选择了BaaS购车方式。</p>\n<p>特斯拉和国内造车“三杰”，将会避免成为纯粹的“卖车”企业。选择打造出软硬件结合的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>服务生态体系，以此来满足用户在不同场景中的需求。</p>\n<p>新能源汽车渗透率提高，将会有越来越多车企围绕汽车软硬件设施展开，不断完善自身增值服务体系。因为，相比单纯的靠硬件设施赚钱，软件订阅更具持续性，盈利想象空间更大。</p>\n<p>新能源汽车行业中，软硬件生态会是大趋势。不仅是体现在做“硬件”的企业向“软件”靠拢，还体现在科技互联网公司正渗透进汽车行业，凭借多项技术切入其中。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>近日也想在汽车行业分一杯羹，传出了将造车的消息。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>现在建立的科技优势，足以成为电动汽车行业硬件和软件服务的提供商。但是，要成为汽车全面生产商，可能会有更多的难度和挑战。</p>\n<p>回到国内，蔚来、理想、小鹏的背后都有着科技互联网巨头的身影。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、美团、阿里已经各自帮助它们走出困境，在今年重新站上风口。</p>\n<p>除了投资造车新势力，阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等相继打造自己的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>汽车生态。它们打法不一，但各自的逻辑基本清晰，都是以软件供应商、系统解决方案等角度与车企形成合作。未来，两者间在软件服务生态捆绑得可能会更加紧密。</p>\n<p>还可以想象的是，互联网巨头可能将难以抑制“入场造车”的冲动。特别是今年，合资组建新公司、“找车企代工”这两种模式都已经出现。</p>\n<p>阿里与上汽合资建立新的高端智能电动汽车品牌“智己”，不仅仅涉及到技术的合作，更涉及到股权合作。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>也宣布与华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>一起打造新的汽车品牌。</p>\n<p>总的来看，新能源汽车正踩在行业周期的起点之上，面临着格局重塑的可能。除了卖车，软硬件生态具备的想象空间不容忽视。在这样的情况下，新能源车企与科技企业之间的界限将会越来越模糊。新能源潜藏着新可能，而那些没有科技属性的传统车企，在未来很有可能被淘汰。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n复盘新能源汽车2020年！估值“超前”的他们驶向何方？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-24 14:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n “卖车”只是新能源造车们的初级目标，软硬件生态价值最大化是终局？\n</blockquote>\n<p>2020年，一场突如其来的疫情打乱了所有人的节奏，但新能源汽车板块却完成了一次逆势“跑赢”。</p>\n<p>回顾全年，国内汽车市场的销量同比一度下跌近80%。而在今年二至四季度，销量反弹回升，已连续5个月销量超越去年同期。纯电汽车市场销量反弹速度更快，9月-11月纯电汽车销量同比上升幅度都在50%以上，11月销量达到14.4万辆。</p>\n<p>在这些逐渐改善的销量数据背后，哪家车企业绩表现最好？明年的新能源汽车板块将会如何？美股研究社将盘点车企今年最新的业绩，站在行业角度回顾今年，并前瞻未来新能源汽车可能的发展方向。</p>\n<p><b>站在黄金赛道起点</b></p>\n<p><b>估值却已跑在前面</b></p>\n<p>2020年，国内三家造车新势力都在逐渐走出疯狂烧钱的阶段，它们的造血能力已有初步显现。赛道龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>目前仍跑在前方，连续五个季度实现了盈利。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b27e1624222a6956732b58a5403203dc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\"></p>\n<p>具体看各自的财务状况，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>第三季度营收为87.7亿美元，营收规模处于领先地位。而国内造车“三杰”中，营收规模从高至低则是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想和小鹏。去年至今，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>一直处于首位，而理想则实现了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>的超越，跃居第二位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397be86ccd422d7b8755316fd6223fc3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"258\"></p>\n<p>今年，毛利率成为各家CEO口中提及最多的关键词之一。截至今年三季度，特斯拉以超过20%的毛利率位居第一。“三杰”中毛利率最高的是理想，为19.8%。其次是蔚来12.9%，小鹏4.6%。三家造车新势力都迈过毛利率转正这道坎。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5972703401275691ad67dc113fe08abe\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"262\"></p>\n<p>净利润方面，特斯拉最新季度录得盈利3.31亿美元，而“三杰”仍在亏损。蔚来由于体量更大，因此在三者中亏损金额最大。</p>\n<p>最后来看销量，特斯拉成为今年的销量之王，前三季度累计达万辆，蔚来、理想和小鹏则次之。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdf86b7eeb7214fd2af51979c4263da4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"216\"></p>\n<p>（图源未来汽车日报&nbsp;）</p>\n<p>整体来看，这四家新能源代表车企的综合表现都在不断改善。加上新能源汽车市场潜在的想象空间，让新能源板块的估值已经走在业绩的前面。</p>\n<p>特斯拉今年累涨超676%，市值约为6160亿美元；蔚来累涨超1117%，市值约768亿美元；理想累涨185%，市值约294亿美元；小鹏累涨213%，市值约371亿美元。</p>\n<p>今年这些代表车企的排名也在不断提升。特斯拉2019年时在全球车企中排名第三，今年已跃居第一，超过排名第二至第五车企市值之和。蔚来、小鹏和理想，分别位列第5、14、16位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0b52d0204c7a50cc5694d50b364bfb4\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"564\"></p>\n<p>可以发现的是，今年新能源车企给整个汽车行业注入了新鲜的血液，扮演着愈加重要的角色。在它们市值提升的背后，吸引的是投资机构们持续地买入。</p>\n<p>特斯拉成为ARK基金头号重仓股，在其下跌时多次出手增持；截至今年三季度，高瓴资本入手了“三杰”，总价值约9862万美元。美国最大公共养老金CalPERS在最新报告表示，对蔚来和特斯拉进行了加仓。另外，加拿大养老金也在同时期大幅加仓蔚来。</p>\n<p><b>复盘汽车行业周期</b></p>\n<p><b>新能源汽车仍在起步阶段</b></p>\n<p>它们仅是买入这一板块的机构中较小部分，实际远远不止。也正因如此，我们今年见识到该板块股票的疯狂，股价急速上升再急速下降，市场情绪成为左右股价的重要因素。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361958eb4fa59c0b0e8aeac5c8ba0a0c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"368\"></p>\n<p>2020年即将过去，在疯狂成为历史之后，对于明年以及长远的展望显得更为重要。可以试着站在行业周期角度去审视新能源汽车，从而做出理智的判断。</p>\n<p>当前，汽车销售一直是新能源车企的绝大部分营收来源，因此仍然可用汽车行业周期去解释新能源汽车的发展阶段。加上该行业本身的周期性较强，可将单月销量以及库存的同比增速作为衡量行业发展的参考指标之一。</p>\n<p>数据显示，目前国内汽车销量的单月同比增速已连续6个月为正，而近3个月库存同比依然为负值。因此，当下国内汽车行业可能处于周期起点的复苏阶段。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b28b7fb7841cdd7923fd757ad10b54\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"383\">图表：中国乘用车单月同比</p>\n<p>若除去2020年疫情的影响，从图中不难发现，其实单月销量同比在去年8月至12月期间，已经从下滑收窄转向接近持平。</p>\n<p>但是，2020年初需求和生产同时受到冲击，使得销量和库存同比增速再度调转向下。最终，在今年3月形成了上一轮行业周期的底部，同时是新一轮周期的起点。</p>\n<p>具体到新能源乘用车，11月零售销量为16.9万辆，同比增长136.5%，环比增长26.8%，连续5个月实现正增长。这直接反映出，新能源乘用车不久前开始了上行周期。</p>\n<p>这也能解释为何今年股价受市场情绪主导而涨幅较大，其实正好为复苏阶段的特点。在这一阶段，相关公司的股价会经历快速的上涨。主要是估值在推动着股价，反映着上市公司以后成长阶段的经营表现。</p>\n<p>放眼未来，待2021年销量和库存都同比转正，告别复苏并进入成长期后，估值反而越难以成为股价的推动因素。</p>\n<p>发展较早的特斯拉将是一个典型的例子。其目前连续五个季度实现盈利，未来资本市场会把持续稳定的盈利能力作为考量它的指标，以此评判其长期的投资价值。</p>\n<p>因此，参考汽车行业过去的表现，复苏阶段下市场过度的热情会逐渐平复。短期内，蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的新能源车企，将会随着盈利能力逐渐改善而修复今年的高估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504dfc9f02b2213ad422e0a7db63a353\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"282\">图表：中国汽车周期</p>\n<p>长期来看，在估值也就是市场情绪被消化后，公司业绩的增长可能会成为推动市值增加的主要因素。而投资者更多享受的是业绩增长带来的股价回报。</p>\n<p>在这样的背景下，蔚来、小鹏、理想等国内新能源车企们谁能率先实现盈利，或许会更受到资本市场的青睐。如何能够创造长期价值，是车企需要思考的问题。</p>\n<p><b>“卖车”只是新能源造车们的初级目标</b></p>\n<p><b>软硬件生态价值最大化是终局？</b></p>\n<p>随着新能源汽车产销量的提高，渗透进民众的出行中，新能源汽车行业的商业逻辑已经悄然发生变化。有别于传统的汽车行业，新能源汽车行业在尝试着，跑出不同于前者的成长曲线。</p>\n<p>新能源车企除了汽车销售收入，正在开辟新的增长点。近期有消息称，特斯拉正在缩短“完全自动驾驶”软件订阅服务的推出时间，这个按月付费的订阅计划将于明年年初发布。</p>\n<p>不难想象，特斯拉设计通过软件来启用汽车的内置功能，解决方案似乎是一种“订阅即服务”的业务模型。</p>\n<p>三季度，蔚来推出BaaS电池服务模式，实现车电分离，同样是按月支付服务费用即可。李斌在电话会议上表示，自推出BaaS电池服务模式后，BaaS的使用率每个星期都在增长。整个11月，就有35％的用户选择了BaaS购车方式。</p>\n<p>特斯拉和国内造车“三杰”，将会避免成为纯粹的“卖车”企业。选择打造出软硬件结合的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>服务生态体系，以此来满足用户在不同场景中的需求。</p>\n<p>新能源汽车渗透率提高，将会有越来越多车企围绕汽车软硬件设施展开，不断完善自身增值服务体系。因为，相比单纯的靠硬件设施赚钱，软件订阅更具持续性，盈利想象空间更大。</p>\n<p>新能源汽车行业中，软硬件生态会是大趋势。不仅是体现在做“硬件”的企业向“软件”靠拢，还体现在科技互联网公司正渗透进汽车行业，凭借多项技术切入其中。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>近日也想在汽车行业分一杯羹，传出了将造车的消息。以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>现在建立的科技优势，足以成为电动汽车行业硬件和软件服务的提供商。但是，要成为汽车全面生产商，可能会有更多的难度和挑战。</p>\n<p>回到国内，蔚来、理想、小鹏的背后都有着科技互联网巨头的身影。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、美团、阿里已经各自帮助它们走出困境，在今年重新站上风口。</p>\n<p>除了投资造车新势力，阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>等相继打造自己的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>汽车生态。它们打法不一，但各自的逻辑基本清晰，都是以软件供应商、系统解决方案等角度与车企形成合作。未来，两者间在软件服务生态捆绑得可能会更加紧密。</p>\n<p>还可以想象的是，互联网巨头可能将难以抑制“入场造车”的冲动。特别是今年，合资组建新公司、“找车企代工”这两种模式都已经出现。</p>\n<p>阿里与上汽合资建立新的高端智能电动汽车品牌“智己”，不仅仅涉及到技术的合作，更涉及到股权合作。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000625\">长安汽车</a>也宣布与华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>一起打造新的汽车品牌。</p>\n<p>总的来看，新能源汽车正踩在行业周期的起点之上，面临着格局重塑的可能。除了卖车，软硬件生态具备的想象空间不容忽视。在这样的情况下，新能源车企与科技企业之间的界限将会越来越模糊。新能源潜藏着新可能，而那些没有科技属性的传统车企，在未来很有可能被淘汰。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110365424","content_text":"“卖车”只是新能源造车们的初级目标，软硬件生态价值最大化是终局？\n\n2020年，一场突如其来的疫情打乱了所有人的节奏，但新能源汽车板块却完成了一次逆势“跑赢”。\n回顾全年，国内汽车市场的销量同比一度下跌近80%。而在今年二至四季度，销量反弹回升，已连续5个月销量超越去年同期。纯电汽车市场销量反弹速度更快，9月-11月纯电汽车销量同比上升幅度都在50%以上，11月销量达到14.4万辆。\n在这些逐渐改善的销量数据背后，哪家车企业绩表现最好？明年的新能源汽车板块将会如何？美股研究社将盘点车企今年最新的业绩，站在行业角度回顾今年，并前瞻未来新能源汽车可能的发展方向。\n站在黄金赛道起点\n估值却已跑在前面\n2020年，国内三家造车新势力都在逐渐走出疯狂烧钱的阶段，它们的造血能力已有初步显现。赛道龙头特斯拉目前仍跑在前方，连续五个季度实现了盈利。\n\n具体看各自的财务状况，特斯拉第三季度营收为87.7亿美元，营收规模处于领先地位。而国内造车“三杰”中，营收规模从高至低则是蔚来、理想和小鹏。去年至今，蔚来一直处于首位，而理想则实现了对小鹏汽车的超越，跃居第二位。\n\n今年，毛利率成为各家CEO口中提及最多的关键词之一。截至今年三季度，特斯拉以超过20%的毛利率位居第一。“三杰”中毛利率最高的是理想，为19.8%。其次是蔚来12.9%，小鹏4.6%。三家造车新势力都迈过毛利率转正这道坎。\n\n净利润方面，特斯拉最新季度录得盈利3.31亿美元，而“三杰”仍在亏损。蔚来由于体量更大，因此在三者中亏损金额最大。\n最后来看销量，特斯拉成为今年的销量之王，前三季度累计达万辆，蔚来、理想和小鹏则次之。\n\n（图源未来汽车日报 ）\n整体来看，这四家新能源代表车企的综合表现都在不断改善。加上新能源汽车市场潜在的想象空间，让新能源板块的估值已经走在业绩的前面。\n特斯拉今年累涨超676%，市值约为6160亿美元；蔚来累涨超1117%，市值约768亿美元；理想累涨185%，市值约294亿美元；小鹏累涨213%，市值约371亿美元。\n今年这些代表车企的排名也在不断提升。特斯拉2019年时在全球车企中排名第三，今年已跃居第一，超过排名第二至第五车企市值之和。蔚来、小鹏和理想，分别位列第5、14、16位。\n\n可以发现的是，今年新能源车企给整个汽车行业注入了新鲜的血液，扮演着愈加重要的角色。在它们市值提升的背后，吸引的是投资机构们持续地买入。\n特斯拉成为ARK基金头号重仓股，在其下跌时多次出手增持；截至今年三季度，高瓴资本入手了“三杰”，总价值约9862万美元。美国最大公共养老金CalPERS在最新报告表示，对蔚来和特斯拉进行了加仓。另外，加拿大养老金也在同时期大幅加仓蔚来。\n复盘汽车行业周期\n新能源汽车仍在起步阶段\n它们仅是买入这一板块的机构中较小部分，实际远远不止。也正因如此，我们今年见识到该板块股票的疯狂，股价急速上升再急速下降，市场情绪成为左右股价的重要因素。\n\n2020年即将过去，在疯狂成为历史之后，对于明年以及长远的展望显得更为重要。可以试着站在行业周期角度去审视新能源汽车，从而做出理智的判断。\n当前，汽车销售一直是新能源车企的绝大部分营收来源，因此仍然可用汽车行业周期去解释新能源汽车的发展阶段。加上该行业本身的周期性较强，可将单月销量以及库存的同比增速作为衡量行业发展的参考指标之一。\n数据显示，目前国内汽车销量的单月同比增速已连续6个月为正，而近3个月库存同比依然为负值。因此，当下国内汽车行业可能处于周期起点的复苏阶段。\n图表：中国乘用车单月同比\n若除去2020年疫情的影响，从图中不难发现，其实单月销量同比在去年8月至12月期间，已经从下滑收窄转向接近持平。\n但是，2020年初需求和生产同时受到冲击，使得销量和库存同比增速再度调转向下。最终，在今年3月形成了上一轮行业周期的底部，同时是新一轮周期的起点。\n具体到新能源乘用车，11月零售销量为16.9万辆，同比增长136.5%，环比增长26.8%，连续5个月实现正增长。这直接反映出，新能源乘用车不久前开始了上行周期。\n这也能解释为何今年股价受市场情绪主导而涨幅较大，其实正好为复苏阶段的特点。在这一阶段，相关公司的股价会经历快速的上涨。主要是估值在推动着股价，反映着上市公司以后成长阶段的经营表现。\n放眼未来，待2021年销量和库存都同比转正，告别复苏并进入成长期后，估值反而越难以成为股价的推动因素。\n发展较早的特斯拉将是一个典型的例子。其目前连续五个季度实现盈利，未来资本市场会把持续稳定的盈利能力作为考量它的指标，以此评判其长期的投资价值。\n因此，参考汽车行业过去的表现，复苏阶段下市场过度的热情会逐渐平复。短期内，蔚来、小鹏和理想为代表的新能源车企，将会随着盈利能力逐渐改善而修复今年的高估值。\n图表：中国汽车周期\n长期来看，在估值也就是市场情绪被消化后，公司业绩的增长可能会成为推动市值增加的主要因素。而投资者更多享受的是业绩增长带来的股价回报。\n在这样的背景下，蔚来、小鹏、理想等国内新能源车企们谁能率先实现盈利，或许会更受到资本市场的青睐。如何能够创造长期价值，是车企需要思考的问题。\n“卖车”只是新能源造车们的初级目标\n软硬件生态价值最大化是终局？\n随着新能源汽车产销量的提高，渗透进民众的出行中，新能源汽车行业的商业逻辑已经悄然发生变化。有别于传统的汽车行业，新能源汽车行业在尝试着，跑出不同于前者的成长曲线。\n新能源车企除了汽车销售收入，正在开辟新的增长点。近期有消息称，特斯拉正在缩短“完全自动驾驶”软件订阅服务的推出时间，这个按月付费的订阅计划将于明年年初发布。\n不难想象，特斯拉设计通过软件来启用汽车的内置功能，解决方案似乎是一种“订阅即服务”的业务模型。\n三季度，蔚来推出BaaS电池服务模式，实现车电分离，同样是按月支付服务费用即可。李斌在电话会议上表示，自推出BaaS电池服务模式后，BaaS的使用率每个星期都在增长。整个11月，就有35％的用户选择了BaaS购车方式。\n特斯拉和国内造车“三杰”，将会避免成为纯粹的“卖车”企业。选择打造出软硬件结合的智能服务生态体系，以此来满足用户在不同场景中的需求。\n新能源汽车渗透率提高，将会有越来越多车企围绕汽车软硬件设施展开，不断完善自身增值服务体系。因为，相比单纯的靠硬件设施赚钱，软件订阅更具持续性，盈利想象空间更大。\n新能源汽车行业中，软硬件生态会是大趋势。不仅是体现在做“硬件”的企业向“软件”靠拢，还体现在科技互联网公司正渗透进汽车行业，凭借多项技术切入其中。\n苹果近日也想在汽车行业分一杯羹，传出了将造车的消息。以苹果现在建立的科技优势，足以成为电动汽车行业硬件和软件服务的提供商。但是，要成为汽车全面生产商，可能会有更多的难度和挑战。\n回到国内，蔚来、理想、小鹏的背后都有着科技互联网巨头的身影。腾讯、美团、阿里已经各自帮助它们走出困境，在今年重新站上风口。\n除了投资造车新势力，阿里、腾讯等相继打造自己的智能汽车生态。它们打法不一，但各自的逻辑基本清晰，都是以软件供应商、系统解决方案等角度与车企形成合作。未来，两者间在软件服务生态捆绑得可能会更加紧密。\n还可以想象的是，互联网巨头可能将难以抑制“入场造车”的冲动。特别是今年，合资组建新公司、“找车企代工”这两种模式都已经出现。\n阿里与上汽合资建立新的高端智能电动汽车品牌“智己”，不仅仅涉及到技术的合作，更涉及到股权合作。长安汽车也宣布与华为、宁德时代一起打造新的汽车品牌。\n总的来看，新能源汽车正踩在行业周期的起点之上，面临着格局重塑的可能。除了卖车，软硬件生态具备的想象空间不容忽视。在这样的情况下，新能源车企与科技企业之间的界限将会越来越模糊。新能源潜藏着新可能，而那些没有科技属性的传统车企，在未来很有可能被淘汰。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339109804,"gmtCreate":1608781061408,"gmtModify":1703736740412,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06993\">$蓝月亮集团(06993)$</a>撤销不了，也不成交？","text":"$蓝月亮集团(06993)$撤销不了，也不成交？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394667943","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395286552,"gmtCreate":1607673591476,"gmtModify":1703849410634,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00305\">$五菱汽车(00305)$</a>利好出来，可以先离开了","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00305\">$五菱汽车(00305)$</a>虽然不是整车，起码是汽车配件吧！锁仓持有！","text":"$五菱汽车(00305)$虽然不是整车，起码是汽车配件吧！锁仓持有！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390706226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306530999,"gmtCreate":1604414298611,"gmtModify":1703833003631,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"枪打出头鸟！","listText":"枪打出头鸟！","text":"枪打出头鸟！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306530999","repostId":"1155336206","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976241350,"gmtCreate":1599746577570,"gmtModify":1703819589421,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>连续跌十天！完美！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>连续跌十天！完美！","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$连续跌十天！完美！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976241350","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942126664,"gmtCreate":1596112295058,"gmtModify":1704211056229,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"利好！","listText":"利好！","text":"利好！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942126664","repostId":"1162441255","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162441255","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1596112234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162441255?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-30 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，好于预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162441255","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月30日，美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，创历史最大降幅，预期萎缩34.5%，前值萎缩5%；二季度GDP平减指数初值降1.8%，预期持平，前值升1.4%；二季度年化实际GDP总量初","content":"<p>7月30日，美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，创历史最大降幅，预期萎缩34.5%，前值萎缩5%；二季度GDP平减指数初值降1.8%，预期持平，前值升1.4%；二季度年化实际GDP总量初值为172058亿美元，前值为189774亿美元。</p><p><b>机构评论美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值称，</b>美国经济在第二季遭遇至少1940年代以来最严重的衰退，突显出新冠肺炎疫情对全美企业的冲击，这导致数百万美国人失业。数据表明美国政府关闭经济和居家令所造成的经济破坏的程度。这些命令旨在减缓新型冠状病毒的传播，这令美国此前长时间的经济扩张突然中断。尽管就业、支出和生产自5月重启和大规模联邦刺激措实施以来有所改善，但最近新冠肺炎病例的激增抑制了美国经济的复苏步伐。</p><p>美国二季度实际个人消费支出初值环比降34.6%，创历史最大降幅，预期降34.5%，前值降6.8%；最终销售初值年化环比降29.3%，前值降3.5%。</p><p><b>之后会变好吗？</b></p><p>随着第三季度来临、疫情仍未得到控制，周四公布的GDP数据可能会决定接下来美联储需要采取多大的政策力度。美联储主席鲍威尔隔夜就表示，第二季度GDP萎缩幅度可能创纪录最大。加拿大帝国商业银行指出，二季度GDP数据可以作为美联储评估经济产出缺口规模的起点。</p><p>但目前多数分析师预计，美联储在9月份之前不会采取进一步行动。道明证券首席美国宏观策略师奥沙利文（Jim O 'Sullivan）表示：“他们想更清楚地了解目前的经济状况。”</p><p>关于接下来的经济复苏，市场普遍认为，2020年第三季度将为美国经济带来一些好消息。CNBC预计第三季度GDP增长为16.8%，而纽约联储预计为13.3%。世界大型企业联合会则预计，第三季度季调后GDP增幅将达到20.6%。</p><p>不过也有许多人认为，由于疫情反扑，第四季度将出现不利消息。世界大型企业联合会表示：“秋季第二波疫情反扑，从而造成大范围的经济封锁，可能会导致更弱的W型复苏。这将损害第四季度的经济增长，并将这场经济危机延长到2021年。”</p><p>奥沙利文也担心，今年第四季度经济可能再次萎缩：“从每个月的情况来看，复苏确实又开始再次停滞了。”</p><p>德勤资深美国经济学家巴赫曼（Daniel Bachman）指出，美国经济在第三季度有所复苏，但复苏将被第四季度的再次下滑与之后两个季度的缓慢增长所抵消，因为事实证明，疫情比一些乐观主义者预计的更难消除。巴赫曼表示：</p><p>“第二季度中期重新开放的做法被证明是为时过早。感染病例激增，各州被迫再次限制经济活动。缺乏治疗方案或有效疫苗意味着，重新开放与随后被迫关闭的循环将一直持续下去。”</p><p>巴赫曼预计，到2050年，失业率可能还保持在两位数，GDP将比疫情未发生时本可达到的水平低10%以上。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，好于预期</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，好于预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-30 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月30日，美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，创历史最大降幅，预期萎缩34.5%，前值萎缩5%；二季度GDP平减指数初值降1.8%，预期持平，前值升1.4%；二季度年化实际GDP总量初值为172058亿美元，前值为189774亿美元。</p><p><b>机构评论美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值称，</b>美国经济在第二季遭遇至少1940年代以来最严重的衰退，突显出新冠肺炎疫情对全美企业的冲击，这导致数百万美国人失业。数据表明美国政府关闭经济和居家令所造成的经济破坏的程度。这些命令旨在减缓新型冠状病毒的传播，这令美国此前长时间的经济扩张突然中断。尽管就业、支出和生产自5月重启和大规模联邦刺激措实施以来有所改善，但最近新冠肺炎病例的激增抑制了美国经济的复苏步伐。</p><p>美国二季度实际个人消费支出初值环比降34.6%，创历史最大降幅，预期降34.5%，前值降6.8%；最终销售初值年化环比降29.3%，前值降3.5%。</p><p><b>之后会变好吗？</b></p><p>随着第三季度来临、疫情仍未得到控制，周四公布的GDP数据可能会决定接下来美联储需要采取多大的政策力度。美联储主席鲍威尔隔夜就表示，第二季度GDP萎缩幅度可能创纪录最大。加拿大帝国商业银行指出，二季度GDP数据可以作为美联储评估经济产出缺口规模的起点。</p><p>但目前多数分析师预计，美联储在9月份之前不会采取进一步行动。道明证券首席美国宏观策略师奥沙利文（Jim O 'Sullivan）表示：“他们想更清楚地了解目前的经济状况。”</p><p>关于接下来的经济复苏，市场普遍认为，2020年第三季度将为美国经济带来一些好消息。CNBC预计第三季度GDP增长为16.8%，而纽约联储预计为13.3%。世界大型企业联合会则预计，第三季度季调后GDP增幅将达到20.6%。</p><p>不过也有许多人认为，由于疫情反扑，第四季度将出现不利消息。世界大型企业联合会表示：“秋季第二波疫情反扑，从而造成大范围的经济封锁，可能会导致更弱的W型复苏。这将损害第四季度的经济增长，并将这场经济危机延长到2021年。”</p><p>奥沙利文也担心，今年第四季度经济可能再次萎缩：“从每个月的情况来看，复苏确实又开始再次停滞了。”</p><p>德勤资深美国经济学家巴赫曼（Daniel Bachman）指出，美国经济在第三季度有所复苏，但复苏将被第四季度的再次下滑与之后两个季度的缓慢增长所抵消，因为事实证明，疫情比一些乐观主义者预计的更难消除。巴赫曼表示：</p><p>“第二季度中期重新开放的做法被证明是为时过早。感染病例激增，各州被迫再次限制经济活动。缺乏治疗方案或有效疫苗意味着，重新开放与随后被迫关闭的循环将一直持续下去。”</p><p>巴赫曼预计，到2050年，失业率可能还保持在两位数，GDP将比疫情未发生时本可达到的水平低10%以上。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cea63431ce8de4033f967e80206303c3","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162441255","content_text":"7月30日，美国第二季度实际GDP年化初值环比萎缩32.9%，创历史最大降幅，预期萎缩34.5%，前值萎缩5%；二季度GDP平减指数初值降1.8%，预期持平，前值升1.4%；二季度年化实际GDP总量初值为172058亿美元，前值为189774亿美元。机构评论美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值称，美国经济在第二季遭遇至少1940年代以来最严重的衰退，突显出新冠肺炎疫情对全美企业的冲击，这导致数百万美国人失业。数据表明美国政府关闭经济和居家令所造成的经济破坏的程度。这些命令旨在减缓新型冠状病毒的传播，这令美国此前长时间的经济扩张突然中断。尽管就业、支出和生产自5月重启和大规模联邦刺激措实施以来有所改善，但最近新冠肺炎病例的激增抑制了美国经济的复苏步伐。美国二季度实际个人消费支出初值环比降34.6%，创历史最大降幅，预期降34.5%，前值降6.8%；最终销售初值年化环比降29.3%，前值降3.5%。之后会变好吗？随着第三季度来临、疫情仍未得到控制，周四公布的GDP数据可能会决定接下来美联储需要采取多大的政策力度。美联储主席鲍威尔隔夜就表示，第二季度GDP萎缩幅度可能创纪录最大。加拿大帝国商业银行指出，二季度GDP数据可以作为美联储评估经济产出缺口规模的起点。但目前多数分析师预计，美联储在9月份之前不会采取进一步行动。道明证券首席美国宏观策略师奥沙利文（Jim O 'Sullivan）表示：“他们想更清楚地了解目前的经济状况。”关于接下来的经济复苏，市场普遍认为，2020年第三季度将为美国经济带来一些好消息。CNBC预计第三季度GDP增长为16.8%，而纽约联储预计为13.3%。世界大型企业联合会则预计，第三季度季调后GDP增幅将达到20.6%。不过也有许多人认为，由于疫情反扑，第四季度将出现不利消息。世界大型企业联合会表示：“秋季第二波疫情反扑，从而造成大范围的经济封锁，可能会导致更弱的W型复苏。这将损害第四季度的经济增长，并将这场经济危机延长到2021年。”奥沙利文也担心，今年第四季度经济可能再次萎缩：“从每个月的情况来看，复苏确实又开始再次停滞了。”德勤资深美国经济学家巴赫曼（Daniel 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 汽车后，造成新势力<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 将在今晚登陆纳斯达克！ 今年以来，新能源汽车迎来风口，蔚来股价从底部大涨700%+，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 更是打爆空头，市值称霸汽车行业。 如此巨大的风口，加上高瓴资本、美团和王兴的助阵，今夜的理想汽车将如何演绎呢？ 来吧，虎友们，竞猜今夜理想汽车收盘涨幅，最接近的15位虎友将获得66虎币的奖励，如果将你的竞猜内容转发到个人主页，将额外赠送66虎币！ 评论转发一条龙，132虎币大放送！ 除了虎币奖励，预测涨跌幅最接近的8位虎友，还有理想周边礼品——环保编织袋赠送： 活动截止时间：今夜24点！ 每账号限竞猜1次 举例： 记得竞猜的同时勾选【同时转发】哦！","listText":"继<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 汽车后，造成新势力<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 将在今晚登陆纳斯达克！ 今年以来，新能源汽车迎来风口，蔚来股价从底部大涨700%+，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 更是打爆空头，市值称霸汽车行业。 如此巨大的风口，加上高瓴资本、美团和王兴的助阵，今夜的理想汽车将如何演绎呢？ 来吧，虎友们，竞猜今夜理想汽车收盘涨幅，最接近的15位虎友将获得66虎币的奖励，如果将你的竞猜内容转发到个人主页，将额外赠送66虎币！ 评论转发一条龙，132虎币大放送！ 除了虎币奖励，预测涨跌幅最接近的8位虎友，还有理想周边礼品——环保编织袋赠送： 活动截止时间：今夜24点！ 每账号限竞猜1次 举例： 记得竞猜的同时勾选【同时转发】哦！","text":"继$蔚来(NIO)$ 汽车后，造成新势力$理想汽车(LI)$ 将在今晚登陆纳斯达克！ 今年以来，新能源汽车迎来风口，蔚来股价从底部大涨700%+，$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 更是打爆空头，市值称霸汽车行业。 如此巨大的风口，加上高瓴资本、美团和王兴的助阵，今夜的理想汽车将如何演绎呢？ 来吧，虎友们，竞猜今夜理想汽车收盘涨幅，最接近的15位虎友将获得66虎币的奖励，如果将你的竞猜内容转发到个人主页，将额外赠送66虎币！ 评论转发一条龙，132虎币大放送！ 除了虎币奖励，预测涨跌幅最接近的8位虎友，还有理想周边礼品——环保编织袋赠送： 活动截止时间：今夜24点！ 每账号限竞猜1次 举例： 记得竞猜的同时勾选【同时转发】哦！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/414c276607dc23333880f33d079d1aa0","width":"1080","height":"1440"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942326934","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942912196,"gmtCreate":1596035222115,"gmtModify":1704210754062,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">$柯达(KODK)$</a>最刺激的过山车[财迷]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">$柯达(KODK)$</a>最刺激的过山车[财迷]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$柯达(KODK)$最刺激的过山车[财迷] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942912196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946932337,"gmtCreate":1595561603229,"gmtModify":1704209427660,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>26.7焊住！！！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>26.7焊住！！！","text":"$中芯国际(00981)$26.7焊住！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946932337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941454342,"gmtCreate":1594996109386,"gmtModify":1704207753797,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"两家公司都被高估了，等待价值回归！","listText":"两家公司都被高估了，等待价值回归！","text":"两家公司都被高估了，等待价值回归！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941454342","repostId":"2051293900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2051293900","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1594945669,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2051293900?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-17 08:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中芯顶 VS茅台底，站哪边？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2051293900","media":"格隆汇","summary":"茅台不爆炸，市场不见底。","content":"<p><b>市场一直有个说法，茅台不爆炸，市场不见底。2018年10月，上一轮熊市的最末期，茅台跌停，市场见底，开始牛市之旅。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/e3333-2b466577-739d-4305-91b5-69c70ec91e83.png\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>而今天是中芯上市首日，不仅监管层给中芯让路，市场也给中芯让路——市场绿灯亮了一路，喜迎中芯上市。收盘时中芯独自涨202%，剩下都是长跪不起，尤其是中芯的一堆兄弟股，3天跌去20%大有人在，甚至连亲兄弟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>（981.HK）也直接收跌25%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c872f-c13330fa-4ec8-4e48-a106-11637d242622.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\">(今日市场走势图，资料来源：网络)</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/8ce10-fb39c4be-41ee-4a14-8563-89dcd6c76ed0.png\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"715\"></p><p>正主入席，围观群众一哄而散。不仅科技板块跌，上证跌4.5%，创业板跌5.9%，创下年内第二大跌幅（第一是开年第一个交易日），251家公司跌停。</p><p>更重要的是茅台在这种情况下大跌7.9%，白酒板块集体跌停，中芯顶和茅台底同时出现，到底应该相信哪一边？&nbsp;</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/014e6-a045a24a-2d03-4cdf-b52a-4ce580d8b95c.png\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\"></p><h3><b>中芯顶是怎么来的？</b></h3><p>我们先梳理下这次回调的时间顺序：</p><blockquote>7月14日，周二外资流出174亿，科技板块回调，电子跌2%7月15日，周三外资流出27亿，科技板块继续回调，电子跌4.7%，半导体etf跌6%7月16日，周四外资流出69亿，上证回撤4.5%，电子跌6.2%，半导体etf跌8.6%，医药跌6.7%、白酒跌8.9%</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/dbe90-72a1b3cd-9d55-474a-89d8-db9f3bcdde4a.png\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>可以看到从周一开始，这波回调的领头人是科技板块，尤其是半导体，然后今天由科技蔓延到其他板块，直接带崩整个市场，指数三大发动机——<b>科技、消费、医药争相跳水，拉都拉不住。</b></p><p>其实不仅是港A股科技板领跌，美股这几日之前强势的科技龙头表现同样不好，之前涨幅最大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，三天回撤了14%，盘前继续跌6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fd884-a3a4985d-aee9-478d-8965-0d4c9e36c068.png\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>而且很巧的是，特斯拉周一大幅回调16%，纳指回调4%，第二天A股外资就直接恐慌流出173亿——<b>也就是说这次回调并非是港A股独有的现象，美股科技股的回调也影响到了市场情绪，全球同步。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/48e97-26c4419c-97b6-410d-8dfb-b6b3476acebc.png\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"497\"></p><p>而A股科技板块崩溃还有另一个原因，就是7月15之前创业板公司集中发布的业绩预告，尤其是在13日晚<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300433\">蓝思科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300676\">华大基因</a>这些公司发布了超预期的中报之后，周二机构直接选择兑现收益，高位板块集体回调，科技股是兑现重灾区。</p><p>然后周二晚突然披露了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>的上市时间，16日就直接上市，实际上只给市场留了1天的博弈的时间。这次中芯国际上市，本身的关注度极高，甚至连场外的爷爷奶奶都知道中芯上市，极高的关注度下产生极端的交易情绪，这几点结合在一起，市场波动变得极其夸张。</p><p>而中芯国际带崩半导体的逻辑很简单，最近一段时间以半导体为主的科技股围绕着中芯国际产业链炒作，而当正主真的上市了，可以买到中芯本身，中芯的周边概念就会被资金抛弃，真正的配置资金也会从其他个股中抽出一大批资金准备迎接中芯。</p><p>看看今天的成交量也能证明这个逻辑——<b>中芯国际A股全天成交479.7亿元，占科创板所有股票成交额近50%，跻身A股历史第四大单只个股成交金额。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/e833d-4b3043b9-ade2-4059-8a73-2f986f62e93a.png\" tg-width=\"430\" tg-height=\"728\"></p><p>种种因素叠加到一起，整个科技板块的炒作情绪就直接崩了，成了恐慌情绪的启动器。</p><h3><b>为何今天又出现了全面下跌？</b></h3><p>如果今天只是科技板块回调，大家会当作市场风格切换来看，就像这几天美股虽然科技龙头表现不佳，但传统的低估值板块表现明显好于科技股，比如航空和邮轮昨天也是大涨。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5de53-8b9a6e5f-b825-4f4d-9d76-8193813910c8.png\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>但A股今天明显是全方位回调，这里面有宏观的因素，也有微观行业的因素，大家总结了4个因素：</p><blockquote><b>一是今天公布的上半年经济数据较好，二季度增速达到3.2%，明显好于之前市场的一致预期，引发政策边际收紧的担忧；二是中美关系出现较多扰动，包括特朗普涉南海涉港法案的签署以及科技战有所升级，英国宣布禁用华为设备；三是有媒体质疑“茅台”，引发白酒股的大幅调整；四是中芯国际IPO引发抽血效应，中芯国际单日成交金额超过500亿元。</b></blockquote><p>这4点都算是理由，但其实际上后面三个都是微观原因，没办法说明为啥全面下跌，<b>主要是GDP数据的解读这块，市场有比较大的分歧。&nbsp;</b></p><p>直接看数据，二季度GDP实现了3.2%的增长，算是超预期。规模以上工业增加值由Q1下降8.4%转为增长4.4%，服务业增加值由Q1下降5.2%转为增长1.9%。同时，Q2社会消费品零售总额降幅比Q1收窄15.1个百分点，上半年固定资产投资降幅比Q1收窄13.0个百分点。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/ebec6-ccdaa0b0-f412-449b-ac76-dd17aed84205.png\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/63a26-22a97dc1-352c-4db7-8eff-bee71f89d2bb.png\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\"></p><p>细项来拆，投资需求是支撑经济修复的最大动力，社零消费和居民实际收入同比增速仍在负值区间，除日用品、家电、文化办公用品、通讯器材、建筑建材类同比增速回到去年同期水平，其他品类消费增速回升动力不足。另外6 月全国城镇调查失业率5.7%（-0.2pct），低于政府预期的6%目标，不过马上就是毕业季了，这块政府也会盯得比较紧。</p><p>其实虽然GPD有3.2%的增速，但细项来看说明经济暂时还不是V 型反弹，修复的斜率比较温和<b>，意味着目前偏中性的政策大概率将延续。</b></p><p>这样分析下来，政策方面也没有太多需要收紧的迹象，所以今天回调的逻辑更多就是涨多了，估值太贵，有收紧的预期就直接就把估值拉下来了。</p><p>我们看一组数据，回调之前白酒、医药、消费电子、半导体、新能源汽车5个核心行业，<b>行业整体PE分别为45、60、60、120、60，估值都是3年新高</b>，而且不少子板块估值天天创历史新高。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/36cc4-74af2600-1223-4dff-a123-b86243c5a0b2.png\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\"></p><p>大部分投资人的框架里，的确很难理解50PE的茅台，60PE的立讯，70PE的迈瑞，90PE的宁德，210PE的圣邦（按2020年底业绩估算）——这些龙头公司估值天天历史新高，股价也因为持续上涨而过百。有个指数是高价股指数，今年最高涨93%，基本都是科技、消费、医药龙头公司组成，也是这两天回调的主力。&nbsp;</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/378e5-36ecc838-8a71-47e2-ba32-4fe41896978e.png\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p><b>所以就出现了7月14日机构趁着中报预告阶段和中芯国际上市，直接兑现高收益板块的收益，毕竟之后可没有更大的主题来炒作市场情绪了，而且半导体板块从此会开始埋人了。</b></p><p>而除去这几个核心的高估值板块，之前低估值的上证50，在7月初前两周的风格切换中也涨了18%，这些天回调也刚好把7月的涨幅跌回去了一半，回调幅度的确很大，但实际上都是7月份的获利盘出逃，只能说是之前涨的太快，要跌破原有的位置也很难。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/3e9aa-532a021d-10cd-4b4c-89d8-958ebdf73ec4.png\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"717\"></p><h3><b>之后怎么办？</b></h3><p>在7月初指数涨幅过快的情况下，市场兑现收益只是因为获利盘太多，并不是景气度走坏，和长期投资价值更加没什么关系，就像茅台的价值不会因为文章而改变，这次急跌也一是前期涨幅过大，二是说明了市场的确恐慌到了极致。</p><p><b>既然核心是涨幅和估值问题，而政策方面不用太担心太过收紧，</b>那投资人要做的一是等待估值回调，二是继续盯好中报业绩即可，回调完也会继续被机构抱团。</p><p>而对于中芯国际相关概念股，因为属于之前炒作的核心板块，现在也尽量不用碰——从长期来看，一个板块高估值公司太多，终究容易埋人。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中芯顶 VS茅台底，站哪边？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中芯顶 VS茅台底，站哪边？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-17 08:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/390974><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场一直有个说法，茅台不爆炸，市场不见底。2018年10月，上一轮熊市的最末期，茅台跌停，市场见底，开始牛市之旅。而今天是中芯上市首日，不仅监管层给中芯让路，市场也给中芯让路——市场绿灯亮了一路，喜迎中芯上市。收盘时中芯独自涨202%，剩下都是长跪不起，尤其是中芯的一堆兄弟股，3天跌去20%大有人在，甚至连亲兄弟中芯国际（981.HK）也直接收跌25%。(今日市场走势图，资料来源：网络)正主入席，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/390974\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528f1b5f95c1aa85d740d858963e7e8f","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/390974","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2051293900","content_text":"市场一直有个说法，茅台不爆炸，市场不见底。2018年10月，上一轮熊市的最末期，茅台跌停，市场见底，开始牛市之旅。而今天是中芯上市首日，不仅监管层给中芯让路，市场也给中芯让路——市场绿灯亮了一路，喜迎中芯上市。收盘时中芯独自涨202%，剩下都是长跪不起，尤其是中芯的一堆兄弟股，3天跌去20%大有人在，甚至连亲兄弟中芯国际（981.HK）也直接收跌25%。(今日市场走势图，资料来源：网络)正主入席，围观群众一哄而散。不仅科技板块跌，上证跌4.5%，创业板跌5.9%，创下年内第二大跌幅（第一是开年第一个交易日），251家公司跌停。更重要的是茅台在这种情况下大跌7.9%，白酒板块集体跌停，中芯顶和茅台底同时出现，到底应该相信哪一边？ 中芯顶是怎么来的？我们先梳理下这次回调的时间顺序：7月14日，周二外资流出174亿，科技板块回调，电子跌2%7月15日，周三外资流出27亿，科技板块继续回调，电子跌4.7%，半导体etf跌6%7月16日，周四外资流出69亿，上证回撤4.5%，电子跌6.2%，半导体etf跌8.6%，医药跌6.7%、白酒跌8.9%可以看到从周一开始，这波回调的领头人是科技板块，尤其是半导体，然后今天由科技蔓延到其他板块，直接带崩整个市场，指数三大发动机——科技、消费、医药争相跳水，拉都拉不住。其实不仅是港A股科技板领跌，美股这几日之前强势的科技龙头表现同样不好，之前涨幅最大的特斯拉，三天回撤了14%，盘前继续跌6%。而且很巧的是，特斯拉周一大幅回调16%，纳指回调4%，第二天A股外资就直接恐慌流出173亿——也就是说这次回调并非是港A股独有的现象，美股科技股的回调也影响到了市场情绪，全球同步。而A股科技板块崩溃还有另一个原因，就是7月15之前创业板公司集中发布的业绩预告，尤其是在13日晚蓝思科技、华大基因这些公司发布了超预期的中报之后，周二机构直接选择兑现收益，高位板块集体回调，科技股是兑现重灾区。然后周二晚突然披露了中芯国际的上市时间，16日就直接上市，实际上只给市场留了1天的博弈的时间。这次中芯国际上市，本身的关注度极高，甚至连场外的爷爷奶奶都知道中芯上市，极高的关注度下产生极端的交易情绪，这几点结合在一起，市场波动变得极其夸张。而中芯国际带崩半导体的逻辑很简单，最近一段时间以半导体为主的科技股围绕着中芯国际产业链炒作，而当正主真的上市了，可以买到中芯本身，中芯的周边概念就会被资金抛弃，真正的配置资金也会从其他个股中抽出一大批资金准备迎接中芯。看看今天的成交量也能证明这个逻辑——中芯国际A股全天成交479.7亿元，占科创板所有股票成交额近50%，跻身A股历史第四大单只个股成交金额。种种因素叠加到一起，整个科技板块的炒作情绪就直接崩了，成了恐慌情绪的启动器。为何今天又出现了全面下跌？如果今天只是科技板块回调，大家会当作市场风格切换来看，就像这几天美股虽然科技龙头表现不佳，但传统的低估值板块表现明显好于科技股，比如航空和邮轮昨天也是大涨。但A股今天明显是全方位回调，这里面有宏观的因素，也有微观行业的因素，大家总结了4个因素：一是今天公布的上半年经济数据较好，二季度增速达到3.2%，明显好于之前市场的一致预期，引发政策边际收紧的担忧；二是中美关系出现较多扰动，包括特朗普涉南海涉港法案的签署以及科技战有所升级，英国宣布禁用华为设备；三是有媒体质疑“茅台”，引发白酒股的大幅调整；四是中芯国际IPO引发抽血效应，中芯国际单日成交金额超过500亿元。这4点都算是理由，但其实际上后面三个都是微观原因，没办法说明为啥全面下跌，主要是GDP数据的解读这块，市场有比较大的分歧。 直接看数据，二季度GDP实现了3.2%的增长，算是超预期。规模以上工业增加值由Q1下降8.4%转为增长4.4%，服务业增加值由Q1下降5.2%转为增长1.9%。同时，Q2社会消费品零售总额降幅比Q1收窄15.1个百分点，上半年固定资产投资降幅比Q1收窄13.0个百分点。细项来拆，投资需求是支撑经济修复的最大动力，社零消费和居民实际收入同比增速仍在负值区间，除日用品、家电、文化办公用品、通讯器材、建筑建材类同比增速回到去年同期水平，其他品类消费增速回升动力不足。另外6 月全国城镇调查失业率5.7%（-0.2pct），低于政府预期的6%目标，不过马上就是毕业季了，这块政府也会盯得比较紧。其实虽然GPD有3.2%的增速，但细项来看说明经济暂时还不是V 型反弹，修复的斜率比较温和，意味着目前偏中性的政策大概率将延续。这样分析下来，政策方面也没有太多需要收紧的迹象，所以今天回调的逻辑更多就是涨多了，估值太贵，有收紧的预期就直接就把估值拉下来了。我们看一组数据，回调之前白酒、医药、消费电子、半导体、新能源汽车5个核心行业，行业整体PE分别为45、60、60、120、60，估值都是3年新高，而且不少子板块估值天天创历史新高。大部分投资人的框架里，的确很难理解50PE的茅台，60PE的立讯，70PE的迈瑞，90PE的宁德，210PE的圣邦（按2020年底业绩估算）——这些龙头公司估值天天历史新高，股价也因为持续上涨而过百。有个指数是高价股指数，今年最高涨93%，基本都是科技、消费、医药龙头公司组成，也是这两天回调的主力。 所以就出现了7月14日机构趁着中报预告阶段和中芯国际上市，直接兑现高收益板块的收益，毕竟之后可没有更大的主题来炒作市场情绪了，而且半导体板块从此会开始埋人了。而除去这几个核心的高估值板块，之前低估值的上证50，在7月初前两周的风格切换中也涨了18%，这些天回调也刚好把7月的涨幅跌回去了一半，回调幅度的确很大，但实际上都是7月份的获利盘出逃，只能说是之前涨的太快，要跌破原有的位置也很难。之后怎么办？在7月初指数涨幅过快的情况下，市场兑现收益只是因为获利盘太多，并不是景气度走坏，和长期投资价值更加没什么关系，就像茅台的价值不会因为文章而改变，这次急跌也一是前期涨幅过大，二是说明了市场的确恐慌到了极致。既然核心是涨幅和估值问题，而政策方面不用太担心太过收紧，那投资人要做的一是等待估值回调，二是继续盯好中报业绩即可，回调完也会继续被机构抱团。而对于中芯国际相关概念股，因为属于之前炒作的核心板块，现在也尽量不用碰——从长期来看，一个板块高估值公司太多，终究容易埋人。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":394653533,"gmtCreate":1608024571822,"gmtModify":1703850688067,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Ps，竞猜涨幅的截止时间是明天早上9点，竞猜收盘涨跌幅最接近的送300虎币，注意，竞猜的是港股中芯国际收盘涨跌幅！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952aca16cd56f1cc74081a261d2a56be","width":"1080","height":"2244"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941391566","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"content":"得最接近跌幅的才行","text":"得最接近跌幅的才行","html":"得最接近跌幅的才行"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332532281,"gmtCreate":1610430717443,"gmtModify":1703744237008,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KGJI\">$金凰珠宝(KGJI)$</a>衷心祝愿造假者倾家荡产！","text":"$金凰珠宝(KGJI)$衷心祝愿造假者倾家荡产！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940430003","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334114605,"gmtCreate":1610718062707,"gmtModify":1703746534096,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTK\">$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$</a>祝早日退市！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTK\">$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$</a>祝早日退市！","text":"$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$祝早日退市！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334114605","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306530999,"gmtCreate":1604414298611,"gmtModify":1703833003631,"author":{"id":"3493097414549879","authorId":"3493097414549879","name":"勇闯天涯者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fb264509049ae210d331f5735b89e10","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3493097414549879","authorIdStr":"3493097414549879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"枪打出头鸟！","listText":"枪打出头鸟！","text":"枪打出头鸟！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306530999","repostId":"1155336206","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155336206","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1604413733,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155336206?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-03 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Consequently, Ant has decided that the concurrent H share listing plan on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shall also be suspended.</p><p>Ant Group sincerely apologizes to you for any inconvenience caused by this development. We will properly handle the follow-up matters in accordance with applicable regulations of the two stock exchanges.</p><p>We will overcome the challenges and live up to the trust on the principles of: stable innovation; embrace of regulation; service to the real economy; and win-win cooperation. We will continue to serve small and micro businesses and ordinary citizens with our passion, professionalism and commitment for society. We will keep in close communications with the Shanghai Stock Exchange and relevant regulators, and wait for their further notice with respect to further developments of our offering and listing process and disclose in a timely manner.</p><p>Ant Group</p><p>November 3, 2020</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蚂蚁回应两地暂缓上市：深表歉意，妥善处理好后续工作</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁回应两地暂缓上市：深表歉意，妥善处理好后续工作\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-03 22:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>蚂蚁回应两地暂缓上市：对由此给投资者带来的麻烦，蚂蚁集团深表歉意。我们将按照两地交易所的相关规则，妥善处理好后续工作。</p><p>尊敬的投资者：</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>于今日接到上海证券交易所通知，暂缓在上海证券交易所A股上市计划。受此影响，蚂蚁决定于香港联交所H股同步上市的计划也将暂缓。</p><p>对由此给投资者带来的麻烦，蚂蚁集团深表歉意。我们将按照两地交易所的相关规则，妥善处理好后续工作。</p><p>稳妥创新、拥抱监管、服务实体、开放共赢，会让蚂蚁集团经得起考验和信任。我们会坚持我们的初心和使命，继续用我们的热情、专业、担当，致力于为广大小微企业和大众消费者做好服务。有关发行上市的下一步进展我们将与上海证券交易所及监管部门保持密切沟通，并及时披露相关情况。</p><p>蚂蚁集团</p><p>2020年11月3日</p><p>Dear investors,</p><p>Ant Group was notified by the Shanghai Stock Exchange today that our A share listing plan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange would be suspended. Consequently, Ant has decided that the concurrent H share listing plan on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shall also be suspended.</p><p>Ant Group sincerely apologizes to you for any inconvenience caused by this development. We will properly handle the follow-up matters in accordance with applicable regulations of the two stock exchanges.</p><p>We will overcome the challenges and live up to the trust on the principles of: stable innovation; embrace of regulation; service to the real economy; and win-win cooperation. We will continue to serve small and micro businesses and ordinary citizens with our passion, professionalism and commitment for society. We will keep in close communications with the Shanghai Stock Exchange and relevant regulators, and wait for their further notice with respect to further developments of our offering and listing process and disclose in a timely manner.</p><p>Ant Group</p><p>November 3, 2020</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a26b7ba3b02c1fb57b999b5df1d3fe8","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155336206","content_text":"蚂蚁回应两地暂缓上市：对由此给投资者带来的麻烦，蚂蚁集团深表歉意。我们将按照两地交易所的相关规则，妥善处理好后续工作。尊敬的投资者：蚂蚁集团于今日接到上海证券交易所通知，暂缓在上海证券交易所A股上市计划。受此影响，蚂蚁决定于香港联交所H股同步上市的计划也将暂缓。对由此给投资者带来的麻烦，蚂蚁集团深表歉意。我们将按照两地交易所的相关规则，妥善处理好后续工作。稳妥创新、拥抱监管、服务实体、开放共赢，会让蚂蚁集团经得起考验和信任。我们会坚持我们的初心和使命，继续用我们的热情、专业、担当，致力于为广大小微企业和大众消费者做好服务。有关发行上市的下一步进展我们将与上海证券交易所及监管部门保持密切沟通，并及时披露相关情况。蚂蚁集团2020年11月3日Dear investors,Ant Group was notified by the Shanghai Stock Exchange today that our A share listing plan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange would be suspended. Consequently, Ant has decided that the concurrent H share listing plan on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange shall also be suspended.Ant Group sincerely apologizes to you for any inconvenience caused by this development. We will properly handle the follow-up matters in accordance with applicable regulations of the two stock exchanges.We will overcome the challenges and live up to the trust on the principles of: stable innovation; embrace of regulation; service to the real economy; and win-win cooperation. We will continue to serve small and micro businesses and ordinary citizens with our passion, professionalism and commitment for society. 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