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大家都碉堡了
2021-04-26
三星手机对三星来说,就像华为手机对华为。
抱歉,原内容已删除
大家都碉堡了
2021-03-04
电子烟不是比传统烟草好吗?为什么不禁传统烟?
抱歉,原内容已删除
大家都碉堡了
2020-07-21
下面经销商搞活动吧,特斯拉不知道很正常啊,补贴是拼多多给的,双方都没错啊
拼多多回应特斯拉:车子是正品,补贴也是真的
大家都碉堡了
2020-07-05
$中芯国际(00981)$
才27.46,比想象中低好多,我一开始认为最少有30的。
大家都碉堡了
2020-06-13
$燃石医学(BNR)$
怎么办啊啊啊啊啊我还是卖不出去!!!!十多分钟了还卖不出去,撤销再挂也不行,是不是不撤等着比较好???
大家都碉堡了
2020-06-12
$燃石医学(BNR)$
为什么会出现卖不出的情况呀,到底咋回事哦
大家都碉堡了
2020-06-02
狗屁,谁说没有盖楼了!!这次换成开火车了,比谁跑得快
抱歉,原内容已删除
大家都碉堡了
2020-02-12
$慧择控股(HUIZ)$
果然破发了~不卖,拿着吧,反正没多少 😂😂😂😂
大家都碉堡了
2020-02-11
$慧择控股(HUIZ)$
很多人还不能理解慧择的销售模式。就拿买基金来说,如果所有人都直接在基金公司买,那天天基金/蛋卷等这些基金代销平台还有什么存在的意义呢?以前马云刚提出要在网上卖东西的时候,谁都不看好他,还说买东西直接去超市去商场门口小店买多好什么的,这么多年过去了,线下实体被冲击得多厉害我就不说了。慧择是互联网保险里的龙头,客户群体也比较年轻,那是因为年轻人现在买东西都喜欢性价比,很多人买保险都是在网上经“货比三家”之后选择自己心仪的产品。保险公司线下靠拉人头卖产品忽悠人傻钱多的人买保险的年代已经过去了。
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tg-height=\"410\"></p><p></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aa9153f4386a08c2cbc79999550248","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124387055","content_text":"7月21日消息,针对特斯拉否认和拼多多合作一事,拼多多回应媒体表示,“已经与商家核实,车子是正品的特斯拉,补贴也是真的。”宜买车工作人员表示,这次的秒杀活动只有5辆车,是公司通过相应渠道购入,可以保证车辆是全新正品,“手续和渠道都是正规的,发票也是正规的,也能享受特斯拉的各项服务政策。”近日,拼多多平台上的宜买车汽车旗舰店上线了“特斯拉中国-Model 3 2019款 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果然破发了~不卖,拿着吧,反正没多少 😂😂😂😂","text":"$慧择控股(HUIZ)$ 果然破发了~不卖,拿着吧,反正没多少 😂😂😂😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917034839","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914589139,"gmtCreate":1581399602821,"gmtModify":1704344040787,"author":{"id":"3492837606773857","authorId":"3492837606773857","name":"大家都碉堡了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e64e0003a9b739bb9be6f8f7689a352","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492837606773857","authorIdStr":"3492837606773857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUIZ\">$慧择控股(HUIZ)$</a> 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很多人还不能理解慧择的销售模式。就拿买基金来说,如果所有人都直接在基金公司买,那天天基金/蛋卷等这些基金代销平台还有什么存在的意义呢?以前马云刚提出要在网上卖东西的时候,谁都不看好他,还说买东西直接去超市去商场门口小店买多好什么的,这么多年过去了,线下实体被冲击得多厉害我就不说了。慧择是互联网保险里的龙头,客户群体也比较年轻,那是因为年轻人现在买东西都喜欢性价比,很多人买保险都是在网上经“货比三家”之后选择自己心仪的产品。保险公司线下靠拉人头卖产品忽悠人傻钱多的人买保险的年代已经过去了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914589139","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951725607,"gmtCreate":1591072452909,"gmtModify":1704194242282,"author":{"id":"3492837606773857","authorId":"3492837606773857","name":"大家都碉堡了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e64e0003a9b739bb9be6f8f7689a352","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492837606773857","authorIdStr":"3492837606773857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"狗屁,谁说没有盖楼了!!这次换成开火车了,比谁跑得快","listText":"狗屁,谁说没有盖楼了!!这次换成开火车了,比谁跑得快","text":"狗屁,谁说没有盖楼了!!这次换成开火车了,比谁跑得快","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/951725607","repostId":"1138137954","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138137954","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"国泰君安研究","home_visible":1,"media_name":"国泰君安证券研究","id":"1051739769","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd5c807ac304ce7a9da871e241d8323"},"pubTimestamp":1591061484,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138137954?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-02 09:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"618,能否成为中国消费的回血之战?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138137954","media":"国泰君安证券研究","summary":"今年的618注定与往年的不同。\n5月25日,淘宝、京东、苏宁等多个平台迫不及待的同时发布了今年的618促销政策。相比往年复杂的叠加规则,今年各大电商平台的促销全都从骨子里透露出了满满的诚意——“简单”","content":"<p><span>今年的618注定与往年的不同。</span></p>\n<p><span>5月25日,淘宝、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、苏宁等多个平台迫不及待的同时发布了今年的618促销政策。相比往年复杂的叠加规则,今年各大电商平台的促销全都从骨子里透露出了满满的诚意——“简单”。</span></p>\n<p><span>从各家规则来看,既没有淘宝组队,也没有天猫盖楼,京东打出“史上最简单的618“旗号,承诺“买贵就退,买贵就赔”,而苏宁打出“J-10%”的口号,选择在家电3C品类上与京东贴身肉搏。</span></p>\n<p><span>从时间上来看,今年的618与往年一样,没有真正等到6月18日,而是将时间提前半个月,几乎打满六月全场——根据天猫公布的官方日历,今年618将从5月25日持续到6月20日,为期长达27天。</span></p>\n<p><span>这场史上最大诚意的618,能否成为后疫情时代中国消费的回血之战?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>消费大组发布多篇报告,和我们分享了他们的看法。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>01、“618”检验消费者信心的最佳场景</b></span></p>\n<p><span>在2月失去的,要在6月拿回来。</span></p>\n<p><span>作为后疫情时期第一场<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>购物狂欢节,618承担的责任,不仅仅是让商家赚钱这么简单。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1、关键词:低价</span></b></p>\n<p><span>电商大促=打折促销是消费者对618,双十一这些电商节日的直接认识。</span></p>\n<p><span>尽管近年来新加入了线上线下融合、购物节晚会等多种噱头,但低价仍然是吸引消费者下单最重要的因素。</span></p>\n<p><span>折扣或补贴,其实都是电商平台最常见的“输出”方式,但今年在品牌商去库存需求、国家促消费的意志下,力度更胜往年。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 2020年618天猫满300减40元</span></p>\n<p><span>促销活动升级</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9289171e3aaf51c9ac3cd9e744d3ddec\" tg-width=\"428\" tg-height=\"737\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:天猫官网</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 2020年618京东补贴</span></p>\n<p><span>超百亿消费券</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f6dd625e0fda4b851360d83f72c27c\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"728\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:京东官网</span></p>\n<p><span>从各大平台推出的优惠政策来看,少了些花里胡哨的数学题,多了些真金白银的简单诚意。其中:</span></p>\n<p><span># 天猫结合国家消费补贴,率先启动全场满300-40,无需领券优惠,并携<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等一众大牌开启官方大促。</span></p>\n<p><span># 京东以京喜开路,5月21日就开启大促,随后京东推出超过2亿件五折商品,联合多地政府发放百亿消费券。</span></p>\n<p><span># 苏宁更是紧盯京东,打出J-10%的口号,在家电3C品类上贴身肉搏。</span></p>\n<p><span># <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>则延续一贯百亿补贴低价,并未额外加码。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>关键词二:直播</span></b></p>\n<p><span>此次618从传统的4大电商平台变成4+2(抖音、快手),直播正成为重要的流量入口,并且与限时特卖的模式高度吻合。</span></p>\n<p><span>从直播阵营来看,除了专业直播之外,总裁直播+明星直播成为本次618的最大看点。</span></p>\n<p><span>据天猫透露,天猫618期间将邀请超300名娱乐明星和600多名品牌方总裁登陆淘宝直播带货。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 300多明星集体上淘宝直播</span></p>\n<p><span>掀起史上最大规模的明星开播潮</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbe35bee441b1cd8235d72ca766b154d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"960\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:淘宝直播,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>而战前结盟的京东、快手动作也非常迅速。</span></p>\n<p><span>*详见《快手牵手京东背后:直播电商始于网红,终于供应链 | 国君消费》</span></p>\n<p><span>618期间京东表示将邀请超100位明星和品牌方总裁直播带货,还推出了音乐现场直播。</span></p>\n<p><span>快手则在开战前夕祭出天王周杰伦,与淘宝直播明星团一较高下。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 6月1日上午10点</span></p>\n<p><span>周杰伦上线快手变魔术</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5be47c01d622158254617e3bf083f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2055\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:快手,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span><b>02、上半年最大规模消费回血花落谁家?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>”急不可耐搞促销“的背后,是大批遭受疫情冲击的品牌商家正急待现金流回血。</span></p>\n<p><span>据天猫公开资料显示,今年天猫618将有10万商家参与这场年中大促,同比数量翻倍。这其中,美妆、零食、家电,堪称618三大战场。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1、美妆。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>借助网红带货、社交种草实现口碑传播,已经成为现在化妆品品牌商的营销共识。</span></p>\n<p><span>根据Euromonitor,电商渠道2018年以27.4%的市场份额超越KA渠道成为第一大销售渠道,2013-2018年复合增长率25.6%,居各渠道之首。</span></p>\n<p><span>2020年,天猫美妆行业继续保持高增长,4月增速再度上升至38%,且国货品牌增速显著高于国际大牌。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 电商成为化妆品销售第一大渠道</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3346fca3ec68dcd090fc7bfcdf6d9c2e\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"355\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:Euromonitor,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 美容护肤电商渠道年复合增速居各渠道之首</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769cae823ffc31e7a43e3a55a648b0d\" tg-width=\"546\" tg-height=\"363\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:Euromonitor,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 美妆、轻奢、食品</span></p>\n<p><span>位居抖音KOL投放前列</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c033b617dcad08b051cfd5bdb3f2d035\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"396\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:火星营销院,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b><span>2、零食</span></b></p>\n<p><span>近年来,线上休闲零食增速保持在30%以上。随着零食产业的不断革新以及消费者的消费水平持续提升,零食已不再只是三餐之外的补充,消费者为零食赋予了更多的新含义和新角色。</span></p>\n<p><span>盲盒、IP联名等新玩法走进零食品类,商家通过抖音、快手短视频的持续发酵,带动年轻群体的高度参与并完成转化复购。</span></p>\n<p><span>2020年4月,随着疫情后消费习惯加深、物流恢复,休闲零食线上增速进一步上升至53%。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 休闲零食线上销售增速4月大幅上升</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba668a0c57375c263daab258232bf89\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"369\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:淘数据,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 美妆、轻奢、食品</span></p>\n<p><span>位居快手热销品类前列</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ffb5913a42d6bba09cb12a99917e8c\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"399\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:火星营销院,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b>3、3C家电</b></p>\n<p><span>而“618”促销作为传统3C电器大促节日,也会成为2020年各大厂商冲量保规模的重要节点,预计龙头公司会加大促销力度进一步提升市场集中度。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 2019年618期间家电3C销售额位列第一</span></p>\n<p><span>同比增长34.1%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59121d48b93c8c2be03e12b05bc9ac3\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"556\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:数据威,国泰君安证券</span></p>\n<p><span><b>03</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>中国消费回暖</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>若干信号</b></span></p>\n<p><span>在此前国泰君安消费大组首席们参与的《后疫情时代,消费行业的分化悄然而至 | 首席相对论》中曾经提及,消费者信心是后疫情时代中国经济回暖的关键指标,而618大促是帮助我们确认消费者信心的一个关键节点。</span></p>\n<p><span>从目前可获得的数据来看,我们认为这个起点隐约可见。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1、4月社零数据大幅改善</span></b></p>\n<p><span>根据国家统计局数据,2020年4月,社零增速-7.50%,相比3月份的-15.8%\\-29.7%大幅下滑出现明显改善修复趋势,显示出消费者信心的逐步恢复。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 社会消费品零售额增速较3月明显改善</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4f397521ca44c2a89dfa6411fbb35a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"656\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:国家统计局,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b><span>2、天猫预售成交额增长515%</span></b></p>\n<p><span>5月25日,天猫公布了618正式开始1小时的预售数据,预售成交额同比增长达到515%。其中,消费电子、家装等行业率先实现7分钟破1亿,美妆7分钟超5亿,小家电品类增长迅猛,电蒸锅同比增长100倍、电饼铛同比增长87倍、空气炸锅同比增长85倍、空调扇同比增长27倍。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>3、历年618行业增速明显</span></b></p>\n<p><span>2019年618期间,电商行业规模同比增长26%,从预热期开始,日活跃用户数量持续提升,在6月18日当天达到峰值5.2亿人次,同比增长18.4%。</span></p>\n<p><span>行业本身的高速增长,叠加2020年促销力度相比2019年进一步提升,例如天猫从满300减30元,提升至满300减40元,以及疫情期间被压制的消费需求集中释放,2020年618整体规模增速有望大幅提升。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 历届618期间移动购物APP</span></p>\n<p><span>日活跃用户规模及同比增速</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97221ee0b611bc0fd69e382713326bc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:QuestMobile,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b><span>4、居民出行回暖</span></b></p>\n<p><span>根据高德地图大数据显示,居民开车出行已恢复至春节前95.8%的水平,乘坐公共交通出行也回升至50.5%。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼居民开车出行已恢复至春节前95.8%的水平</span></p>\n<p><span>乘坐公共交通出行也回升至50.5%</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8211c23c7d69b21f34a97f7fa5c51658\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:高德地图出行暖报</span></p>\n<p><span>其中,北京、上海等一线城市作为全国交通枢纽,面临较大的防控压力恢复水平慢于国内平均水平。其他城市如深圳、西安、杭州等城市驾车出行率恢复超过80%。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果消费者信心复苏能够在6月得到确认,那么中国消费的下半年趋势性回暖值得期待。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>618,能否成为中国消费的回血之战?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n618,能否成为中国消费的回血之战?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1051739769\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd5c807ac304ce7a9da871e241d8323);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">国泰君安证券研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-06-02 09:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>今年的618注定与往年的不同。</span></p>\n<p><span>5月25日,淘宝、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、苏宁等多个平台迫不及待的同时发布了今年的618促销政策。相比往年复杂的叠加规则,今年各大电商平台的促销全都从骨子里透露出了满满的诚意——“简单”。</span></p>\n<p><span>从各家规则来看,既没有淘宝组队,也没有天猫盖楼,京东打出“史上最简单的618“旗号,承诺“买贵就退,买贵就赔”,而苏宁打出“J-10%”的口号,选择在家电3C品类上与京东贴身肉搏。</span></p>\n<p><span>从时间上来看,今年的618与往年一样,没有真正等到6月18日,而是将时间提前半个月,几乎打满六月全场——根据天猫公布的官方日历,今年618将从5月25日持续到6月20日,为期长达27天。</span></p>\n<p><span>这场史上最大诚意的618,能否成为后疫情时代中国消费的回血之战?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>消费大组发布多篇报告,和我们分享了他们的看法。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>01、“618”检验消费者信心的最佳场景</b></span></p>\n<p><span>在2月失去的,要在6月拿回来。</span></p>\n<p><span>作为后疫情时期第一场<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>购物狂欢节,618承担的责任,不仅仅是让商家赚钱这么简单。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1、关键词:低价</span></b></p>\n<p><span>电商大促=打折促销是消费者对618,双十一这些电商节日的直接认识。</span></p>\n<p><span>尽管近年来新加入了线上线下融合、购物节晚会等多种噱头,但低价仍然是吸引消费者下单最重要的因素。</span></p>\n<p><span>折扣或补贴,其实都是电商平台最常见的“输出”方式,但今年在品牌商去库存需求、国家促消费的意志下,力度更胜往年。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 2020年618天猫满300减40元</span></p>\n<p><span>促销活动升级</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9289171e3aaf51c9ac3cd9e744d3ddec\" tg-width=\"428\" tg-height=\"737\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:天猫官网</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 2020年618京东补贴</span></p>\n<p><span>超百亿消费券</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f6dd625e0fda4b851360d83f72c27c\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"728\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:京东官网</span></p>\n<p><span>从各大平台推出的优惠政策来看,少了些花里胡哨的数学题,多了些真金白银的简单诚意。其中:</span></p>\n<p><span># 天猫结合国家消费补贴,率先启动全场满300-40,无需领券优惠,并携<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等一众大牌开启官方大促。</span></p>\n<p><span># 京东以京喜开路,5月21日就开启大促,随后京东推出超过2亿件五折商品,联合多地政府发放百亿消费券。</span></p>\n<p><span># 苏宁更是紧盯京东,打出J-10%的口号,在家电3C品类上贴身肉搏。</span></p>\n<p><span># <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>则延续一贯百亿补贴低价,并未额外加码。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>关键词二:直播</span></b></p>\n<p><span>此次618从传统的4大电商平台变成4+2(抖音、快手),直播正成为重要的流量入口,并且与限时特卖的模式高度吻合。</span></p>\n<p><span>从直播阵营来看,除了专业直播之外,总裁直播+明星直播成为本次618的最大看点。</span></p>\n<p><span>据天猫透露,天猫618期间将邀请超300名娱乐明星和600多名品牌方总裁登陆淘宝直播带货。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 300多明星集体上淘宝直播</span></p>\n<p><span>掀起史上最大规模的明星开播潮</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbe35bee441b1cd8235d72ca766b154d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"960\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:淘宝直播,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>而战前结盟的京东、快手动作也非常迅速。</span></p>\n<p><span>*详见《快手牵手京东背后:直播电商始于网红,终于供应链 | 国君消费》</span></p>\n<p><span>618期间京东表示将邀请超100位明星和品牌方总裁直播带货,还推出了音乐现场直播。</span></p>\n<p><span>快手则在开战前夕祭出天王周杰伦,与淘宝直播明星团一较高下。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 6月1日上午10点</span></p>\n<p><span>周杰伦上线快手变魔术</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5be47c01d622158254617e3bf083f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2055\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:快手,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span><b>02、上半年最大规模消费回血花落谁家?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>”急不可耐搞促销“的背后,是大批遭受疫情冲击的品牌商家正急待现金流回血。</span></p>\n<p><span>据天猫公开资料显示,今年天猫618将有10万商家参与这场年中大促,同比数量翻倍。这其中,美妆、零食、家电,堪称618三大战场。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1、美妆。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>借助网红带货、社交种草实现口碑传播,已经成为现在化妆品品牌商的营销共识。</span></p>\n<p><span>根据Euromonitor,电商渠道2018年以27.4%的市场份额超越KA渠道成为第一大销售渠道,2013-2018年复合增长率25.6%,居各渠道之首。</span></p>\n<p><span>2020年,天猫美妆行业继续保持高增长,4月增速再度上升至38%,且国货品牌增速显著高于国际大牌。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 电商成为化妆品销售第一大渠道</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3346fca3ec68dcd090fc7bfcdf6d9c2e\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"355\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:Euromonitor,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 美容护肤电商渠道年复合增速居各渠道之首</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769cae823ffc31e7a43e3a55a648b0d\" tg-width=\"546\" tg-height=\"363\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:Euromonitor,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 美妆、轻奢、食品</span></p>\n<p><span>位居抖音KOL投放前列</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c033b617dcad08b051cfd5bdb3f2d035\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"396\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:火星营销院,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b><span>2、零食</span></b></p>\n<p><span>近年来,线上休闲零食增速保持在30%以上。随着零食产业的不断革新以及消费者的消费水平持续提升,零食已不再只是三餐之外的补充,消费者为零食赋予了更多的新含义和新角色。</span></p>\n<p><span>盲盒、IP联名等新玩法走进零食品类,商家通过抖音、快手短视频的持续发酵,带动年轻群体的高度参与并完成转化复购。</span></p>\n<p><span>2020年4月,随着疫情后消费习惯加深、物流恢复,休闲零食线上增速进一步上升至53%。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 休闲零食线上销售增速4月大幅上升</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba668a0c57375c263daab258232bf89\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"369\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:淘数据,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 美妆、轻奢、食品</span></p>\n<p><span>位居快手热销品类前列</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3ffb5913a42d6bba09cb12a99917e8c\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"399\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:火星营销院,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b>3、3C家电</b></p>\n<p><span>而“618”促销作为传统3C电器大促节日,也会成为2020年各大厂商冲量保规模的重要节点,预计龙头公司会加大促销力度进一步提升市场集中度。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 2019年618期间家电3C销售额位列第一</span></p>\n<p><span>同比增长34.1%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a59121d48b93c8c2be03e12b05bc9ac3\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"556\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:数据威,国泰君安证券</span></p>\n<p><span><b>03</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>中国消费回暖</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>若干信号</b></span></p>\n<p><span>在此前国泰君安消费大组首席们参与的《后疫情时代,消费行业的分化悄然而至 | 首席相对论》中曾经提及,消费者信心是后疫情时代中国经济回暖的关键指标,而618大促是帮助我们确认消费者信心的一个关键节点。</span></p>\n<p><span>从目前可获得的数据来看,我们认为这个起点隐约可见。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>1、4月社零数据大幅改善</span></b></p>\n<p><span>根据国家统计局数据,2020年4月,社零增速-7.50%,相比3月份的-15.8%\\-29.7%大幅下滑出现明显改善修复趋势,显示出消费者信心的逐步恢复。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 社会消费品零售额增速较3月明显改善</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4f397521ca44c2a89dfa6411fbb35a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"656\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:国家统计局,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b><span>2、天猫预售成交额增长515%</span></b></p>\n<p><span>5月25日,天猫公布了618正式开始1小时的预售数据,预售成交额同比增长达到515%。其中,消费电子、家装等行业率先实现7分钟破1亿,美妆7分钟超5亿,小家电品类增长迅猛,电蒸锅同比增长100倍、电饼铛同比增长87倍、空气炸锅同比增长85倍、空调扇同比增长27倍。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>3、历年618行业增速明显</span></b></p>\n<p><span>2019年618期间,电商行业规模同比增长26%,从预热期开始,日活跃用户数量持续提升,在6月18日当天达到峰值5.2亿人次,同比增长18.4%。</span></p>\n<p><span>行业本身的高速增长,叠加2020年促销力度相比2019年进一步提升,例如天猫从满300减30元,提升至满300减40元,以及疫情期间被压制的消费需求集中释放,2020年618整体规模增速有望大幅提升。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼ 历届618期间移动购物APP</span></p>\n<p><span>日活跃用户规模及同比增速</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97221ee0b611bc0fd69e382713326bc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"506\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:QuestMobile,国泰君安证券研究</span></p>\n<p><b><span>4、居民出行回暖</span></b></p>\n<p><span>根据高德地图大数据显示,居民开车出行已恢复至春节前95.8%的水平,乘坐公共交通出行也回升至50.5%。</span></p>\n<p><span>▼居民开车出行已恢复至春节前95.8%的水平</span></p>\n<p><span>乘坐公共交通出行也回升至50.5%</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8211c23c7d69b21f34a97f7fa5c51658\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\"></p>\n<p><span>数据来源:高德地图出行暖报</span></p>\n<p><span>其中,北京、上海等一线城市作为全国交通枢纽,面临较大的防控压力恢复水平慢于国内平均水平。其他城市如深圳、西安、杭州等城市驾车出行率恢复超过80%。</span></p>\n<p><span>如果消费者信心复苏能够在6月得到确认,那么中国消费的下半年趋势性回暖值得期待。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c0a277e4e75737e1a9666fe65358da","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138137954","content_text":"今年的618注定与往年的不同。\n5月25日,淘宝、京东、苏宁等多个平台迫不及待的同时发布了今年的618促销政策。相比往年复杂的叠加规则,今年各大电商平台的促销全都从骨子里透露出了满满的诚意——“简单”。\n从各家规则来看,既没有淘宝组队,也没有天猫盖楼,京东打出“史上最简单的618“旗号,承诺“买贵就退,买贵就赔”,而苏宁打出“J-10%”的口号,选择在家电3C品类上与京东贴身肉搏。\n从时间上来看,今年的618与往年一样,没有真正等到6月18日,而是将时间提前半个月,几乎打满六月全场——根据天猫公布的官方日历,今年618将从5月25日持续到6月20日,为期长达27天。\n这场史上最大诚意的618,能否成为后疫情时代中国消费的回血之战?国泰君安消费大组发布多篇报告,和我们分享了他们的看法。\n01、“618”检验消费者信心的最佳场景\n在2月失去的,要在6月拿回来。\n作为后疫情时期第一场全民购物狂欢节,618承担的责任,不仅仅是让商家赚钱这么简单。\n1、关键词:低价\n电商大促=打折促销是消费者对618,双十一这些电商节日的直接认识。\n尽管近年来新加入了线上线下融合、购物节晚会等多种噱头,但低价仍然是吸引消费者下单最重要的因素。\n折扣或补贴,其实都是电商平台最常见的“输出”方式,但今年在品牌商去库存需求、国家促消费的意志下,力度更胜往年。\n▼ 2020年618天猫满300减40元\n促销活动升级\n\n数据来源:天猫官网\n▼ 2020年618京东补贴\n超百亿消费券\n\n数据来源:京东官网\n从各大平台推出的优惠政策来看,少了些花里胡哨的数学题,多了些真金白银的简单诚意。其中:\n# 天猫结合国家消费补贴,率先启动全场满300-40,无需领券优惠,并携苹果等一众大牌开启官方大促。\n# 京东以京喜开路,5月21日就开启大促,随后京东推出超过2亿件五折商品,联合多地政府发放百亿消费券。\n# 苏宁更是紧盯京东,打出J-10%的口号,在家电3C品类上贴身肉搏。\n# 拼多多则延续一贯百亿补贴低价,并未额外加码。\n关键词二:直播\n此次618从传统的4大电商平台变成4+2(抖音、快手),直播正成为重要的流量入口,并且与限时特卖的模式高度吻合。\n从直播阵营来看,除了专业直播之外,总裁直播+明星直播成为本次618的最大看点。\n据天猫透露,天猫618期间将邀请超300名娱乐明星和600多名品牌方总裁登陆淘宝直播带货。\n▼ 300多明星集体上淘宝直播\n掀起史上最大规模的明星开播潮\n\n图片来源:淘宝直播,国泰君安证券研究\n而战前结盟的京东、快手动作也非常迅速。\n*详见《快手牵手京东背后:直播电商始于网红,终于供应链 | 国君消费》\n618期间京东表示将邀请超100位明星和品牌方总裁直播带货,还推出了音乐现场直播。\n快手则在开战前夕祭出天王周杰伦,与淘宝直播明星团一较高下。\n▼ 6月1日上午10点\n周杰伦上线快手变魔术\n\n图片来源:快手,国泰君安证券研究\n02、上半年最大规模消费回血花落谁家?\n”急不可耐搞促销“的背后,是大批遭受疫情冲击的品牌商家正急待现金流回血。\n据天猫公开资料显示,今年天猫618将有10万商家参与这场年中大促,同比数量翻倍。这其中,美妆、零食、家电,堪称618三大战场。\n1、美妆。\n借助网红带货、社交种草实现口碑传播,已经成为现在化妆品品牌商的营销共识。\n根据Euromonitor,电商渠道2018年以27.4%的市场份额超越KA渠道成为第一大销售渠道,2013-2018年复合增长率25.6%,居各渠道之首。\n2020年,天猫美妆行业继续保持高增长,4月增速再度上升至38%,且国货品牌增速显著高于国际大牌。\n▼ 电商成为化妆品销售第一大渠道\n\n数据来源:Euromonitor,国泰君安证券研究\n▼ 美容护肤电商渠道年复合增速居各渠道之首\n\n数据来源:Euromonitor,国泰君安证券研究\n▼ 美妆、轻奢、食品\n位居抖音KOL投放前列\n\n数据来源:火星营销院,国泰君安证券研究\n2、零食\n近年来,线上休闲零食增速保持在30%以上。随着零食产业的不断革新以及消费者的消费水平持续提升,零食已不再只是三餐之外的补充,消费者为零食赋予了更多的新含义和新角色。\n盲盒、IP联名等新玩法走进零食品类,商家通过抖音、快手短视频的持续发酵,带动年轻群体的高度参与并完成转化复购。\n2020年4月,随着疫情后消费习惯加深、物流恢复,休闲零食线上增速进一步上升至53%。\n▼ 休闲零食线上销售增速4月大幅上升\n\n数据来源:淘数据,国泰君安证券研究\n▼ 美妆、轻奢、食品\n位居快手热销品类前列\n\n数据来源:火星营销院,国泰君安证券研究\n3、3C家电\n而“618”促销作为传统3C电器大促节日,也会成为2020年各大厂商冲量保规模的重要节点,预计龙头公司会加大促销力度进一步提升市场集中度。\n▼ 2019年618期间家电3C销售额位列第一\n同比增长34.1%。\n\n数据来源:数据威,国泰君安证券\n03\n中国消费回暖\n若干信号\n在此前国泰君安消费大组首席们参与的《后疫情时代,消费行业的分化悄然而至 | 首席相对论》中曾经提及,消费者信心是后疫情时代中国经济回暖的关键指标,而618大促是帮助我们确认消费者信心的一个关键节点。\n从目前可获得的数据来看,我们认为这个起点隐约可见。\n1、4月社零数据大幅改善\n根据国家统计局数据,2020年4月,社零增速-7.50%,相比3月份的-15.8%\\-29.7%大幅下滑出现明显改善修复趋势,显示出消费者信心的逐步恢复。\n▼ 社会消费品零售额增速较3月明显改善\n\n数据来源:国家统计局,国泰君安证券研究\n2、天猫预售成交额增长515%\n5月25日,天猫公布了618正式开始1小时的预售数据,预售成交额同比增长达到515%。其中,消费电子、家装等行业率先实现7分钟破1亿,美妆7分钟超5亿,小家电品类增长迅猛,电蒸锅同比增长100倍、电饼铛同比增长87倍、空气炸锅同比增长85倍、空调扇同比增长27倍。\n3、历年618行业增速明显\n2019年618期间,电商行业规模同比增长26%,从预热期开始,日活跃用户数量持续提升,在6月18日当天达到峰值5.2亿人次,同比增长18.4%。\n行业本身的高速增长,叠加2020年促销力度相比2019年进一步提升,例如天猫从满300减30元,提升至满300减40元,以及疫情期间被压制的消费需求集中释放,2020年618整体规模增速有望大幅提升。\n▼ 历届618期间移动购物APP\n日活跃用户规模及同比增速\n\n数据来源:QuestMobile,国泰君安证券研究\n4、居民出行回暖\n根据高德地图大数据显示,居民开车出行已恢复至春节前95.8%的水平,乘坐公共交通出行也回升至50.5%。\n▼居民开车出行已恢复至春节前95.8%的水平\n乘坐公共交通出行也回升至50.5%\n\n数据来源:高德地图出行暖报\n其中,北京、上海等一线城市作为全国交通枢纽,面临较大的防控压力恢复水平慢于国内平均水平。其他城市如深圳、西安、杭州等城市驾车出行率恢复超过80%。\n如果消费者信心复苏能够在6月得到确认,那么中国消费的下半年趋势性回暖值得期待。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374283678,"gmtCreate":1619448418494,"gmtModify":1619448418494,"author":{"id":"3492837606773857","authorId":"3492837606773857","name":"大家都碉堡了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e64e0003a9b739bb9be6f8f7689a352","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492837606773857","authorIdStr":"3492837606773857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"三星手机对三星来说,就像华为手机对华为。","listText":"三星手机对三星来说,就像华为手机对华为。","text":"三星手机对三星来说,就像华为手机对华为。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374283678","repostId":"1188284210","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364692825,"gmtCreate":1614843996167,"gmtModify":1703481840802,"author":{"id":"3492837606773857","authorId":"3492837606773857","name":"大家都碉堡了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e64e0003a9b739bb9be6f8f7689a352","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492837606773857","authorIdStr":"3492837606773857"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"电子烟不是比传统烟草好吗?为什么不禁传统烟?","listText":"电子烟不是比传统烟草好吗?为什么不禁传统烟?","text":"电子烟不是比传统烟草好吗?为什么不禁传统烟?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364692825","repostId":"1144881146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}