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Suavy
2022-08-15
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
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Suavy
2022-08-15
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
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Suavy
2022-08-15
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
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Suavy
2022-03-12
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@价值投资为王:中概股再遭血洗,聊聊我是如何应对暴跌的!
Suavy
2022-02-09
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
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Suavy
2021-12-20
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
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Suavy
2021-06-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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Suavy
2021-06-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@小虎周报:美股周策略:本周非农将成为观察QE减量预期的重中之重
Suavy
2021-05-26
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@carlzheng:
$理想汽车(LI)$
$普拉格能源(PLUG)$
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$
$美国钢铁(X)$
本轮行情的性质和未来走向。首先简单总结一下最近的这波行情:自从5月11日,《目前的市场状况下,如何做多股票赚钱》发布以来,(巧合的是,当天就是很多股票反弹前的最低点。)前期超跌热门概念股,就掀起了一波波澜壮阔的反弹潮。fubo从14.64,到最高22.28,涨幅超过50%。我在5月6号就指出,fubo可能会调整到15元左右,财报前最差也就是15元左右,被我不幸言中,当时很多虎友还不敢抄底做反弹。plug最有意思,5月11日下午我刚发完的帖子,说本轮下跌最多到17元左右,晚上盘前就到过17块多,(我17.57加仓了,因为19左右也分批买了),常规交易时间最低价是18.47。到上周五收盘价27.89,九个交易日,也是涨幅超过50%。另外在5月11日的文章中提到的百度和be,都准确的预测了这次反弹的低点。唯一可惜的是当初没有参与理想和小鹏,虽然文章中也写了关注nio和小鹏。特别是理想,技术上是完美的抄底位置,因为我没有把他放在我的股票池中,所以完美滴错过。不过5月17日还是写了文章让大家18元左右建仓的,也赶上个末班车。接下来,我来谈一下对本轮行情性质的一个看法。这次的行情是前期热门概念股超跌后和大盘下跌反弹的一个完美共振。标普和纳指都到了重要的支撑位,热门概念股很多都已经
Suavy
2021-03-25
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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Suavy
2021-03-10
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Suavy
2021-03-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@许哲:最近发生了些啥
Suavy
2021-02-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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Suavy
2021-01-13
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Suavy
2021-01-01
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Suavy
2020-12-28
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Suavy
2020-11-25
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Suavy
2020-07-28
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Suavy
2020-07-21
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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Suavy
2020-07-07
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时候有人喊抄底,如今遭遇SEC退市危机,仍然急着考虑要不要买点。个人经验,在熊市的时候,抄底不是按照几个点来规划的,而是腾讯20PE抄底1把、15PE抄一把、10PE打出最后的子弹。所以,20pe抄底的人,不应该在19PE、或者18PE的时候就动手,一定要把抄底加仓的区间拉大。第三点:单一个股设置仓位天花板很多投资者不设仓位天花板,有时候甚至卖出盈利的股,全仓买入亏损的股。我个人对单一股票,或者同行业股票,最大仓位30%,达到之后,无论是多么便宜的价格,都不会再加仓。如果亏损的股是好股,它会在后面涨回来,甚至创下历史新高,比如腾讯。而如果买入的股票是垃圾股,或者基本面恶化,那你加仓越多,亏损越多。所以,如果中概股占","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635668752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631082918,"gmtCreate":1644387144000,"gmtModify":1644387144000,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631082918","repostId":"1144122089","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693341085,"gmtCreate":1639976290621,"gmtModify":1639976290621,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693341085","repostId":"2192109904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":161460821,"gmtCreate":1623938452463,"gmtModify":1623938452463,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161460821","repostId":"1133403338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119584319,"gmtCreate":1622555300931,"gmtModify":1622555300931,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119584319","repostId":"110885252","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":110885252,"gmtCreate":1622438863972,"gmtModify":1622444186390,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股周策略:本周非农将成为观察QE减量预期的重中之重","htmlText":"拜登周五发布了上任以来首份完整预算案,这个总金额超过6万亿美元的预算报告涉及对恢复基础设施建设、扩大社会安全网、调整资本利得税等领域。对于这些领域的预算,市场此前已有预期,值得一提的是,这次预案拜登假设提高资本利得税的时间可回溯至2021年4月,这意味着,此举将防止富人为躲过加税而在年底之前迅速抛售资产,对市场反而是积极的。不过诸多还需要国会的通过。目前投资者也普遍认为这些信息,不足以促使美联储改变货币政策立场。 本周美股迎来交易短周,周一是阵亡将士纪念日,美股休市一日。回顾整个五月,美股市场大部分时间保持在4000-4200区域震荡<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> ,初步兑现了我们四月底时在<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593da192875f1ebf006bd482dced4750\" target=\"_blank\">《警惕 5月波动魔咒,中期前景仍乐观》20210426</a>中的判断。另一方面,得益于货币宽松、3月下旬正式开始实施的新一轮1.9万亿美元财政纾困,二季度的复工复产,美国金融市场流动性保持充裕,但QE减量的话题也依然是市场担忧的地方。 非农数据将成为投资者观察QE减量预期的重中之重 周内重中之重在于周五公布的美国5月份非农就业报告,由于4月非农意外“爆冷”,市场对5月非农关注度较高。市场预计这次公布的5月非农就业人口将增加60万人,失业率将从6.1%下降至5.9%,薪资年率将从0.3%增加至1.6%。整体预期比较乐观。比较重要的在于,由于美联储更加关注劳动力市场,5月非农的成色将影响美联储缩减QE的时间点。 市场也在担心,如果数据表现良好,比如就业数据复超预期复苏(开始迈向充分就业),工资增速超预期上涨(迈向充分就业的同时,又出现过热的迹象","listText":"拜登周五发布了上任以来首份完整预算案,这个总金额超过6万亿美元的预算报告涉及对恢复基础设施建设、扩大社会安全网、调整资本利得税等领域。对于这些领域的预算,市场此前已有预期,值得一提的是,这次预案拜登假设提高资本利得税的时间可回溯至2021年4月,这意味着,此举将防止富人为躲过加税而在年底之前迅速抛售资产,对市场反而是积极的。不过诸多还需要国会的通过。目前投资者也普遍认为这些信息,不足以促使美联储改变货币政策立场。 本周美股迎来交易短周,周一是阵亡将士纪念日,美股休市一日。回顾整个五月,美股市场大部分时间保持在4000-4200区域震荡<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> ,初步兑现了我们四月底时在<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593da192875f1ebf006bd482dced4750\" target=\"_blank\">《警惕 5月波动魔咒,中期前景仍乐观》20210426</a>中的判断。另一方面,得益于货币宽松、3月下旬正式开始实施的新一轮1.9万亿美元财政纾困,二季度的复工复产,美国金融市场流动性保持充裕,但QE减量的话题也依然是市场担忧的地方。 非农数据将成为投资者观察QE减量预期的重中之重 周内重中之重在于周五公布的美国5月份非农就业报告,由于4月非农意外“爆冷”,市场对5月非农关注度较高。市场预计这次公布的5月非农就业人口将增加60万人,失业率将从6.1%下降至5.9%,薪资年率将从0.3%增加至1.6%。整体预期比较乐观。比较重要的在于,由于美联储更加关注劳动力市场,5月非农的成色将影响美联储缩减QE的时间点。 市场也在担心,如果数据表现良好,比如就业数据复超预期复苏(开始迈向充分就业),工资增速超预期上涨(迈向充分就业的同时,又出现过热的迹象","text":"拜登周五发布了上任以来首份完整预算案,这个总金额超过6万亿美元的预算报告涉及对恢复基础设施建设、扩大社会安全网、调整资本利得税等领域。对于这些领域的预算,市场此前已有预期,值得一提的是,这次预案拜登假设提高资本利得税的时间可回溯至2021年4月,这意味着,此举将防止富人为躲过加税而在年底之前迅速抛售资产,对市场反而是积极的。不过诸多还需要国会的通过。目前投资者也普遍认为这些信息,不足以促使美联储改变货币政策立场。 本周美股迎来交易短周,周一是阵亡将士纪念日,美股休市一日。回顾整个五月,美股市场大部分时间保持在4000-4200区域震荡$标普500(.SPX)$ ,初步兑现了我们四月底时在《警惕 5月波动魔咒,中期前景仍乐观》20210426中的判断。另一方面,得益于货币宽松、3月下旬正式开始实施的新一轮1.9万亿美元财政纾困,二季度的复工复产,美国金融市场流动性保持充裕,但QE减量的话题也依然是市场担忧的地方。 非农数据将成为投资者观察QE减量预期的重中之重 周内重中之重在于周五公布的美国5月份非农就业报告,由于4月非农意外“爆冷”,市场对5月非农关注度较高。市场预计这次公布的5月非农就业人口将增加60万人,失业率将从6.1%下降至5.9%,薪资年率将从0.3%增加至1.6%。整体预期比较乐观。比较重要的在于,由于美联储更加关注劳动力市场,5月非农的成色将影响美联储缩减QE的时间点。 市场也在担心,如果数据表现良好,比如就业数据复超预期复苏(开始迈向充分就业),工资增速超预期上涨(迈向充分就业的同时,又出现过热的迹象","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110885252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136237466,"gmtCreate":1622019437355,"gmtModify":1622019437355,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136237466","repostId":"133580436","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":133580436,"gmtCreate":1621768334825,"gmtModify":1621856184455,"author":{"id":"3453677514408131","authorId":"3453677514408131","name":"carlzheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2076a7c866f8f469b2458012342978af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453677514408131","authorIdStr":"3453677514408131"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$普拉格能源(PLUG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$美国钢铁(X)$</a>本轮行情的性质和未来走向。首先简单总结一下最近的这波行情:自从5月11日,《目前的市场状况下,如何做多股票赚钱》发布以来,(巧合的是,当天就是很多股票反弹前的最低点。)前期超跌热门概念股,就掀起了一波波澜壮阔的反弹潮。fubo从14.64,到最高22.28,涨幅超过50%。我在5月6号就指出,fubo可能会调整到15元左右,财报前最差也就是15元左右,被我不幸言中,当时很多虎友还不敢抄底做反弹。plug最有意思,5月11日下午我刚发完的帖子,说本轮下跌最多到17元左右,晚上盘前就到过17块多,(我17.57加仓了,因为19左右也分批买了),常规交易时间最低价是18.47。到上周五收盘价27.89,九个交易日,也是涨幅超过50%。另外在5月11日的文章中提到的百度和be,都准确的预测了这次反弹的低点。唯一可惜的是当初没有参与理想和小鹏,虽然文章中也写了关注nio和小鹏。特别是理想,技术上是完美的抄底位置,因为我没有把他放在我的股票池中,所以完美滴错过。不过5月17日还是写了文章让大家18元左右建仓的,也赶上个末班车。接下来,我来谈一下对本轮行情性质的一个看法。这次的行情是前期热门概念股超跌后和大盘下跌反弹的一个完美共振。标普和纳指都到了重要的支撑位,热门概念股很多都已经","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$普拉格能源(PLUG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$美国钢铁(X)$</a>本轮行情的性质和未来走向。首先简单总结一下最近的这波行情:自从5月11日,《目前的市场状况下,如何做多股票赚钱》发布以来,(巧合的是,当天就是很多股票反弹前的最低点。)前期超跌热门概念股,就掀起了一波波澜壮阔的反弹潮。fubo从14.64,到最高22.28,涨幅超过50%。我在5月6号就指出,fubo可能会调整到15元左右,财报前最差也就是15元左右,被我不幸言中,当时很多虎友还不敢抄底做反弹。plug最有意思,5月11日下午我刚发完的帖子,说本轮下跌最多到17元左右,晚上盘前就到过17块多,(我17.57加仓了,因为19左右也分批买了),常规交易时间最低价是18.47。到上周五收盘价27.89,九个交易日,也是涨幅超过50%。另外在5月11日的文章中提到的百度和be,都准确的预测了这次反弹的低点。唯一可惜的是当初没有参与理想和小鹏,虽然文章中也写了关注nio和小鹏。特别是理想,技术上是完美的抄底位置,因为我没有把他放在我的股票池中,所以完美滴错过。不过5月17日还是写了文章让大家18元左右建仓的,也赶上个末班车。接下来,我来谈一下对本轮行情性质的一个看法。这次的行情是前期热门概念股超跌后和大盘下跌反弹的一个完美共振。标普和纳指都到了重要的支撑位,热门概念股很多都已经","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$$普拉格能源(PLUG)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$$美国钢铁(X)$本轮行情的性质和未来走向。首先简单总结一下最近的这波行情:自从5月11日,《目前的市场状况下,如何做多股票赚钱》发布以来,(巧合的是,当天就是很多股票反弹前的最低点。)前期超跌热门概念股,就掀起了一波波澜壮阔的反弹潮。fubo从14.64,到最高22.28,涨幅超过50%。我在5月6号就指出,fubo可能会调整到15元左右,财报前最差也就是15元左右,被我不幸言中,当时很多虎友还不敢抄底做反弹。plug最有意思,5月11日下午我刚发完的帖子,说本轮下跌最多到17元左右,晚上盘前就到过17块多,(我17.57加仓了,因为19左右也分批买了),常规交易时间最低价是18.47。到上周五收盘价27.89,九个交易日,也是涨幅超过50%。另外在5月11日的文章中提到的百度和be,都准确的预测了这次反弹的低点。唯一可惜的是当初没有参与理想和小鹏,虽然文章中也写了关注nio和小鹏。特别是理想,技术上是完美的抄底位置,因为我没有把他放在我的股票池中,所以完美滴错过。不过5月17日还是写了文章让大家18元左右建仓的,也赶上个末班车。接下来,我来谈一下对本轮行情性质的一个看法。这次的行情是前期热门概念股超跌后和大盘下跌反弹的一个完美共振。标普和纳指都到了重要的支撑位,热门概念股很多都已经","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af01640daf8647d0f5cb79e4683c4676","width":"1080","height":"2248"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f8c618880b69d5ecf97ee462161591","width":"1080","height":"2248"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd2aba1181577df3f557944cda1505a","width":"1080","height":"2248"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133580436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358607199,"gmtCreate":1616682830011,"gmtModify":1616682830011,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358607199","repostId":"2122441374","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323675867,"gmtCreate":1615341285759,"gmtModify":1703487592563,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323675867","repostId":"1122590338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320309019,"gmtCreate":1615007033031,"gmtModify":1703484192553,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320309019","repostId":"364788095","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":364788095,"gmtCreate":1614841140000,"gmtModify":1703482440905,"author":{"id":"3453943051225490","authorId":"3453943051225490","name":"许哲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c46141457152637805577175903002ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453943051225490","authorIdStr":"3453943051225490"},"themes":[],"title":"最近发生了些啥","htmlText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","listText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","text":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 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"昨夜,美国证监会将5家中概股列入《外国公司问责法》的暂定清单,包括百济神州、百胜中国、再鼎医药、盛美半导体、和黄医药。根据该法案,如果外国上市公司连续三年未能提交美国上市公司会计监督委员会所要求的报告,SEC有权将其从交易所摘牌。这则消息让中概股再遭血洗,拼多多一夜暴跌17%、爱奇艺暴跌22%!恐慌情绪传到港股,美团一度大跌12%;腾讯一度大跌6%,股价创调整新低;阿里巴巴一度大跌8%,跌破90港币大关。其他互联网企业一概遭遇血洗。恐慌之下,很多中概股投资者在犹豫要不要继续抄底?作为10年投资的老司机,也算是经历过2015年A股股灾和2018年的慢熊,分享几个熊市保命的经验。第一点:不用杠杆2015年首先杀的就是杠杆,但凡融资的投资者,基本没有善终的。因此,如果你想抄底中概股,不要用杠杆。第二点:别急着加仓抄底中概的投资者,很多人痛苦的来源就是频繁加仓。以腾讯为例,在410-480横盘震荡区间,很多人反复加仓,包括段永平。大家都认为腾讯长时间的震荡,是大底无疑,害怕错失20PE的腾讯,于是,稍微点几个点,就嚷嚷抄底。结果,腾讯无情的跌破了这个横盘震荡区间,刚跌破的时候有人喊抄底,如今遭遇SEC退市危机,仍然急着考虑要不要买点。个人经验,在熊市的时候,抄底不是按照几个点来规划的,而是腾讯20PE抄底1把、15PE抄一把、10PE打出最后的子弹。所以,20pe抄底的人,不应该在19PE、或者18PE的时候就动手,一定要把抄底加仓的区间拉大。第三点:单一个股设置仓位天花板很多投资者不设仓位天花板,有时候甚至卖出盈利的股,全仓买入亏损的股。我个人对单一股票,或者同行业股票,最大仓位30%,达到之后,无论是多么便宜的价格,都不会再加仓。如果亏损的股是好股,它会在后面涨回来,甚至创下历史新高,比如腾讯。而如果买入的股票是垃圾股,或者基本面恶化,那你加仓越多,亏损越多。所以,如果中概股占","listText":"昨夜,美国证监会将5家中概股列入《外国公司问责法》的暂定清单,包括百济神州、百胜中国、再鼎医药、盛美半导体、和黄医药。根据该法案,如果外国上市公司连续三年未能提交美国上市公司会计监督委员会所要求的报告,SEC有权将其从交易所摘牌。这则消息让中概股再遭血洗,拼多多一夜暴跌17%、爱奇艺暴跌22%!恐慌情绪传到港股,美团一度大跌12%;腾讯一度大跌6%,股价创调整新低;阿里巴巴一度大跌8%,跌破90港币大关。其他互联网企业一概遭遇血洗。恐慌之下,很多中概股投资者在犹豫要不要继续抄底?作为10年投资的老司机,也算是经历过2015年A股股灾和2018年的慢熊,分享几个熊市保命的经验。第一点:不用杠杆2015年首先杀的就是杠杆,但凡融资的投资者,基本没有善终的。因此,如果你想抄底中概股,不要用杠杆。第二点:别急着加仓抄底中概的投资者,很多人痛苦的来源就是频繁加仓。以腾讯为例,在410-480横盘震荡区间,很多人反复加仓,包括段永平。大家都认为腾讯长时间的震荡,是大底无疑,害怕错失20PE的腾讯,于是,稍微点几个点,就嚷嚷抄底。结果,腾讯无情的跌破了这个横盘震荡区间,刚跌破的时候有人喊抄底,如今遭遇SEC退市危机,仍然急着考虑要不要买点。个人经验,在熊市的时候,抄底不是按照几个点来规划的,而是腾讯20PE抄底1把、15PE抄一把、10PE打出最后的子弹。所以,20pe抄底的人,不应该在19PE、或者18PE的时候就动手,一定要把抄底加仓的区间拉大。第三点:单一个股设置仓位天花板很多投资者不设仓位天花板,有时候甚至卖出盈利的股,全仓买入亏损的股。我个人对单一股票,或者同行业股票,最大仓位30%,达到之后,无论是多么便宜的价格,都不会再加仓。如果亏损的股是好股,它会在后面涨回来,甚至创下历史新高,比如腾讯。而如果买入的股票是垃圾股,或者基本面恶化,那你加仓越多,亏损越多。所以,如果中概股占","text":"昨夜,美国证监会将5家中概股列入《外国公司问责法》的暂定清单,包括百济神州、百胜中国、再鼎医药、盛美半导体、和黄医药。根据该法案,如果外国上市公司连续三年未能提交美国上市公司会计监督委员会所要求的报告,SEC有权将其从交易所摘牌。这则消息让中概股再遭血洗,拼多多一夜暴跌17%、爱奇艺暴跌22%!恐慌情绪传到港股,美团一度大跌12%;腾讯一度大跌6%,股价创调整新低;阿里巴巴一度大跌8%,跌破90港币大关。其他互联网企业一概遭遇血洗。恐慌之下,很多中概股投资者在犹豫要不要继续抄底?作为10年投资的老司机,也算是经历过2015年A股股灾和2018年的慢熊,分享几个熊市保命的经验。第一点:不用杠杆2015年首先杀的就是杠杆,但凡融资的投资者,基本没有善终的。因此,如果你想抄底中概股,不要用杠杆。第二点:别急着加仓抄底中概的投资者,很多人痛苦的来源就是频繁加仓。以腾讯为例,在410-480横盘震荡区间,很多人反复加仓,包括段永平。大家都认为腾讯长时间的震荡,是大底无疑,害怕错失20PE的腾讯,于是,稍微点几个点,就嚷嚷抄底。结果,腾讯无情的跌破了这个横盘震荡区间,刚跌破的时候有人喊抄底,如今遭遇SEC退市危机,仍然急着考虑要不要买点。个人经验,在熊市的时候,抄底不是按照几个点来规划的,而是腾讯20PE抄底1把、15PE抄一把、10PE打出最后的子弹。所以,20pe抄底的人,不应该在19PE、或者18PE的时候就动手,一定要把抄底加仓的区间拉大。第三点:单一个股设置仓位天花板很多投资者不设仓位天花板,有时候甚至卖出盈利的股,全仓买入亏损的股。我个人对单一股票,或者同行业股票,最大仓位30%,达到之后,无论是多么便宜的价格,都不会再加仓。如果亏损的股是好股,它会在后面涨回来,甚至创下历史新高,比如腾讯。而如果买入的股票是垃圾股,或者基本面恶化,那你加仓越多,亏损越多。所以,如果中概股占","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635668752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631082918,"gmtCreate":1644387144000,"gmtModify":1644387144000,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631082918","repostId":"1144122089","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693341085,"gmtCreate":1639976290621,"gmtModify":1639976290621,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693341085","repostId":"2192109904","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":161460821,"gmtCreate":1623938452463,"gmtModify":1623938452463,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161460821","repostId":"1133403338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":119584319,"gmtCreate":1622555300931,"gmtModify":1622555300931,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/119584319","repostId":"110885252","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":110885252,"gmtCreate":1622438863972,"gmtModify":1622444186390,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"美股周策略:本周非农将成为观察QE减量预期的重中之重","htmlText":"拜登周五发布了上任以来首份完整预算案,这个总金额超过6万亿美元的预算报告涉及对恢复基础设施建设、扩大社会安全网、调整资本利得税等领域。对于这些领域的预算,市场此前已有预期,值得一提的是,这次预案拜登假设提高资本利得税的时间可回溯至2021年4月,这意味着,此举将防止富人为躲过加税而在年底之前迅速抛售资产,对市场反而是积极的。不过诸多还需要国会的通过。目前投资者也普遍认为这些信息,不足以促使美联储改变货币政策立场。 本周美股迎来交易短周,周一是阵亡将士纪念日,美股休市一日。回顾整个五月,美股市场大部分时间保持在4000-4200区域震荡<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> ,初步兑现了我们四月底时在<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593da192875f1ebf006bd482dced4750\" target=\"_blank\">《警惕 5月波动魔咒,中期前景仍乐观》20210426</a>中的判断。另一方面,得益于货币宽松、3月下旬正式开始实施的新一轮1.9万亿美元财政纾困,二季度的复工复产,美国金融市场流动性保持充裕,但QE减量的话题也依然是市场担忧的地方。 非农数据将成为投资者观察QE减量预期的重中之重 周内重中之重在于周五公布的美国5月份非农就业报告,由于4月非农意外“爆冷”,市场对5月非农关注度较高。市场预计这次公布的5月非农就业人口将增加60万人,失业率将从6.1%下降至5.9%,薪资年率将从0.3%增加至1.6%。整体预期比较乐观。比较重要的在于,由于美联储更加关注劳动力市场,5月非农的成色将影响美联储缩减QE的时间点。 市场也在担心,如果数据表现良好,比如就业数据复超预期复苏(开始迈向充分就业),工资增速超预期上涨(迈向充分就业的同时,又出现过热的迹象","listText":"拜登周五发布了上任以来首份完整预算案,这个总金额超过6万亿美元的预算报告涉及对恢复基础设施建设、扩大社会安全网、调整资本利得税等领域。对于这些领域的预算,市场此前已有预期,值得一提的是,这次预案拜登假设提高资本利得税的时间可回溯至2021年4月,这意味着,此举将防止富人为躲过加税而在年底之前迅速抛售资产,对市场反而是积极的。不过诸多还需要国会的通过。目前投资者也普遍认为这些信息,不足以促使美联储改变货币政策立场。 本周美股迎来交易短周,周一是阵亡将士纪念日,美股休市一日。回顾整个五月,美股市场大部分时间保持在4000-4200区域震荡<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> ,初步兑现了我们四月底时在<a href=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593da192875f1ebf006bd482dced4750\" target=\"_blank\">《警惕 5月波动魔咒,中期前景仍乐观》20210426</a>中的判断。另一方面,得益于货币宽松、3月下旬正式开始实施的新一轮1.9万亿美元财政纾困,二季度的复工复产,美国金融市场流动性保持充裕,但QE减量的话题也依然是市场担忧的地方。 非农数据将成为投资者观察QE减量预期的重中之重 周内重中之重在于周五公布的美国5月份非农就业报告,由于4月非农意外“爆冷”,市场对5月非农关注度较高。市场预计这次公布的5月非农就业人口将增加60万人,失业率将从6.1%下降至5.9%,薪资年率将从0.3%增加至1.6%。整体预期比较乐观。比较重要的在于,由于美联储更加关注劳动力市场,5月非农的成色将影响美联储缩减QE的时间点。 市场也在担心,如果数据表现良好,比如就业数据复超预期复苏(开始迈向充分就业),工资增速超预期上涨(迈向充分就业的同时,又出现过热的迹象","text":"拜登周五发布了上任以来首份完整预算案,这个总金额超过6万亿美元的预算报告涉及对恢复基础设施建设、扩大社会安全网、调整资本利得税等领域。对于这些领域的预算,市场此前已有预期,值得一提的是,这次预案拜登假设提高资本利得税的时间可回溯至2021年4月,这意味着,此举将防止富人为躲过加税而在年底之前迅速抛售资产,对市场反而是积极的。不过诸多还需要国会的通过。目前投资者也普遍认为这些信息,不足以促使美联储改变货币政策立场。 本周美股迎来交易短周,周一是阵亡将士纪念日,美股休市一日。回顾整个五月,美股市场大部分时间保持在4000-4200区域震荡$标普500(.SPX)$ ,初步兑现了我们四月底时在《警惕 5月波动魔咒,中期前景仍乐观》20210426中的判断。另一方面,得益于货币宽松、3月下旬正式开始实施的新一轮1.9万亿美元财政纾困,二季度的复工复产,美国金融市场流动性保持充裕,但QE减量的话题也依然是市场担忧的地方。 非农数据将成为投资者观察QE减量预期的重中之重 周内重中之重在于周五公布的美国5月份非农就业报告,由于4月非农意外“爆冷”,市场对5月非农关注度较高。市场预计这次公布的5月非农就业人口将增加60万人,失业率将从6.1%下降至5.9%,薪资年率将从0.3%增加至1.6%。整体预期比较乐观。比较重要的在于,由于美联储更加关注劳动力市场,5月非农的成色将影响美联储缩减QE的时间点。 市场也在担心,如果数据表现良好,比如就业数据复超预期复苏(开始迈向充分就业),工资增速超预期上涨(迈向充分就业的同时,又出现过热的迹象","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110885252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136237466,"gmtCreate":1622019437355,"gmtModify":1622019437355,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136237466","repostId":"133580436","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":133580436,"gmtCreate":1621768334825,"gmtModify":1621856184455,"author":{"id":"3453677514408131","authorId":"3453677514408131","name":"carlzheng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2076a7c866f8f469b2458012342978af","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453677514408131","authorIdStr":"3453677514408131"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$普拉格能源(PLUG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$美国钢铁(X)$</a>本轮行情的性质和未来走向。首先简单总结一下最近的这波行情:自从5月11日,《目前的市场状况下,如何做多股票赚钱》发布以来,(巧合的是,当天就是很多股票反弹前的最低点。)前期超跌热门概念股,就掀起了一波波澜壮阔的反弹潮。fubo从14.64,到最高22.28,涨幅超过50%。我在5月6号就指出,fubo可能会调整到15元左右,财报前最差也就是15元左右,被我不幸言中,当时很多虎友还不敢抄底做反弹。plug最有意思,5月11日下午我刚发完的帖子,说本轮下跌最多到17元左右,晚上盘前就到过17块多,(我17.57加仓了,因为19左右也分批买了),常规交易时间最低价是18.47。到上周五收盘价27.89,九个交易日,也是涨幅超过50%。另外在5月11日的文章中提到的百度和be,都准确的预测了这次反弹的低点。唯一可惜的是当初没有参与理想和小鹏,虽然文章中也写了关注nio和小鹏。特别是理想,技术上是完美的抄底位置,因为我没有把他放在我的股票池中,所以完美滴错过。不过5月17日还是写了文章让大家18元左右建仓的,也赶上个末班车。接下来,我来谈一下对本轮行情性质的一个看法。这次的行情是前期热门概念股超跌后和大盘下跌反弹的一个完美共振。标普和纳指都到了重要的支撑位,热门概念股很多都已经","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$普拉格能源(PLUG)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$美国钢铁(X)$</a>本轮行情的性质和未来走向。首先简单总结一下最近的这波行情:自从5月11日,《目前的市场状况下,如何做多股票赚钱》发布以来,(巧合的是,当天就是很多股票反弹前的最低点。)前期超跌热门概念股,就掀起了一波波澜壮阔的反弹潮。fubo从14.64,到最高22.28,涨幅超过50%。我在5月6号就指出,fubo可能会调整到15元左右,财报前最差也就是15元左右,被我不幸言中,当时很多虎友还不敢抄底做反弹。plug最有意思,5月11日下午我刚发完的帖子,说本轮下跌最多到17元左右,晚上盘前就到过17块多,(我17.57加仓了,因为19左右也分批买了),常规交易时间最低价是18.47。到上周五收盘价27.89,九个交易日,也是涨幅超过50%。另外在5月11日的文章中提到的百度和be,都准确的预测了这次反弹的低点。唯一可惜的是当初没有参与理想和小鹏,虽然文章中也写了关注nio和小鹏。特别是理想,技术上是完美的抄底位置,因为我没有把他放在我的股票池中,所以完美滴错过。不过5月17日还是写了文章让大家18元左右建仓的,也赶上个末班车。接下来,我来谈一下对本轮行情性质的一个看法。这次的行情是前期热门概念股超跌后和大盘下跌反弹的一个完美共振。标普和纳指都到了重要的支撑位,热门概念股很多都已经","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$$普拉格能源(PLUG)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$$美国钢铁(X)$本轮行情的性质和未来走向。首先简单总结一下最近的这波行情:自从5月11日,《目前的市场状况下,如何做多股票赚钱》发布以来,(巧合的是,当天就是很多股票反弹前的最低点。)前期超跌热门概念股,就掀起了一波波澜壮阔的反弹潮。fubo从14.64,到最高22.28,涨幅超过50%。我在5月6号就指出,fubo可能会调整到15元左右,财报前最差也就是15元左右,被我不幸言中,当时很多虎友还不敢抄底做反弹。plug最有意思,5月11日下午我刚发完的帖子,说本轮下跌最多到17元左右,晚上盘前就到过17块多,(我17.57加仓了,因为19左右也分批买了),常规交易时间最低价是18.47。到上周五收盘价27.89,九个交易日,也是涨幅超过50%。另外在5月11日的文章中提到的百度和be,都准确的预测了这次反弹的低点。唯一可惜的是当初没有参与理想和小鹏,虽然文章中也写了关注nio和小鹏。特别是理想,技术上是完美的抄底位置,因为我没有把他放在我的股票池中,所以完美滴错过。不过5月17日还是写了文章让大家18元左右建仓的,也赶上个末班车。接下来,我来谈一下对本轮行情性质的一个看法。这次的行情是前期热门概念股超跌后和大盘下跌反弹的一个完美共振。标普和纳指都到了重要的支撑位,热门概念股很多都已经","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af01640daf8647d0f5cb79e4683c4676","width":"1080","height":"2248"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f8c618880b69d5ecf97ee462161591","width":"1080","height":"2248"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd2aba1181577df3f557944cda1505a","width":"1080","height":"2248"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133580436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358607199,"gmtCreate":1616682830011,"gmtModify":1616682830011,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358607199","repostId":"2122441374","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323675867,"gmtCreate":1615341285759,"gmtModify":1703487592563,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323675867","repostId":"1122590338","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320309019,"gmtCreate":1615007033031,"gmtModify":1703484192553,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320309019","repostId":"364788095","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":364788095,"gmtCreate":1614841140000,"gmtModify":1703482440905,"author":{"id":"3453943051225490","authorId":"3453943051225490","name":"许哲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c46141457152637805577175903002ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453943051225490","authorIdStr":"3453943051225490"},"themes":[],"title":"最近发生了些啥","htmlText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","listText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","text":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24986cecdcb4df09cdb2c6a0dc81a22"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953720633861487793d51476ed3c218e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c3e2b554b4b4b9b1b43cf1459379c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364788095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385492842,"gmtCreate":1613570707086,"gmtModify":1613570707086,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385492842","repostId":"2112342918","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335927852,"gmtCreate":1610512457376,"gmtModify":1703744872773,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335927852","repostId":"1193297984","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331800938,"gmtCreate":1609477829324,"gmtModify":1703739625146,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331800938","repostId":"1177339685","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333905633,"gmtCreate":1609155611022,"gmtModify":1703737868425,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333905633","repostId":"2093526255","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393160502,"gmtCreate":1606260053506,"gmtModify":1703842092870,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393160502","repostId":"1195493666","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946481531,"gmtCreate":1595945469123,"gmtModify":1704210376352,"author":{"id":"3492719571737837","authorId":"3492719571737837","name":"Suavy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eb042a1c5a0196ff71d027f3a52335b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492719571737837","authorIdStr":"3492719571737837"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repost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